AN EERIE LULL IN ARAB POLITICS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88T00988R000200160004-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 10, 2011
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: April 30, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/10: CIA-RDP88T00988R000200160004-0
SECR
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, Nc. 205
National Intelligence Council
NIC 02180-86
30 April 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Graham E. Fuller
Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT: An Eerie Lull in Arab Politics
1. We are experiencing an eerie lull in Arab world politics right
now--terrorism aside. This period s typified by a lack of major trends
and broad uncertaint and disillusionment in the region with the status
quo. This could lead to some severely negative developments as yet
unforeseen down the road, but could also result in some new
opportunities--also still unseen. It might take war, however, to unleash
any real new motion.
2. The US attack on Libya represents an important milestone in the
course of Middle as' development. Certain factors are now being brought
home to the Arabs that we have not seen in a considerable while:
-- The most important fact is that the US is rapidly moving ever
closer to Israel both tactically and strategically.
-- A second factor is US willingness to use force directly against
the Arab radicals--but without the debiritatng features of
involvement in a ground war as in Lebanon.
-- A third factor is a picture of Arab confusion, demoralization,
and uncertainty stemming from the dramatic fall of oil prices
and the seeming lack of concern in the West for Middle East
problems now that oil "doesn't matter any more."
3. The US attack against Libya has come as a major shock to
Qadhafi. The repercussions of the attack may not be fully seen for
months to come.
-- I find it hard to believe that Qadhafi will seriously change his
agenda or his methods, but he may grow more cautious. The other
radical states will have also gotten the message.
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-- We will almost surely see further acts of terrorism against the
US, but it could be part of a declining trend in terrorism
outside the Middle East.
-- Within the Middle East terrorism will surely continue as a basic
way of conducting warfare without going to war.
4. The Arab world may accept some degree of US military activism
against certain Arab radical states. But the atmosphere is likely to
grow increasingly ugly toward the US as anti-terrorism becomes the major
vehicle of our foreign policy in the Middle East.
-- The temptation to let anti-terrorism take the lead in US Middle
East policy in this direction is strong--even for US
policyrnakers who seek broader settlement in the region. Dealing
with terrorism is relatively finite in nature, actionable, and
concrete results can actually be obtained. It is popular
domestically and enables the US to bring a broad array of forces
to bear. It is more satisfying to deal with than the seemingly
intractable political issues of the Middle East and its regional
leaders why constantly slide away from engaging in the real
problems. Nonetheless, if US zeal is seen to be limited
strictly to punitive strikes against Arabs and not to more
positive acts of policy, the overall reaction in the region
could grow very ugly indeed.
5. The wherewithal for any peaceful settlement of the Arab-Israeli
issue is not even on the horizon any more. The most critical
players--the Palestinians--are hopelessly shattered as a political force,
but the individual splinter groups still can maintain clout--even as
terrorists. Arafat as a symbol of Palestinian aspirations will not go
away regardless of how weak or incompetent he may be.
6. The critical question is whether the harsh realities of the
region--the loss of oil revenues, the loss of oil clout, growing US
strategic ties with Israel, growing Western disinterest and
disinclination to deal with the Arab world--will all this lead to a new
awakening to reality? Or will it lead to a new sullenness, frustration,
and impotent rage that could help bring down beleaguered moderate regimes?
-- Things are in an eerie state of quiet and watchfulness for the
moment. It would be foolhardy to boldly predict how the next
major trends will emerge.
-- War is often the most profoundly creative act in Middle Eastern
politics. It shatters political gridlock and imposes new
realities. The next war will be between Syria and Israel.
2
SECRET
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SECRETI
The track record offers only limited hope that a new realism may
come into being, but then the Middle East is also the
traditional birthplace of miracles.
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SECRETI
NIC 02180-86
30 April 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: An Eerie Lull in Arab Politics
NIC/VC/NIC/GEFuller:jcn 30 Apr. 86
Distribution:
1 -DCI
1 - DOCI
1 - DCI/DDCI Executive Staff
1 - ER
1 - SRP
1 - AC/NIC
1 - A/NIO/NESA
1 - D/NESA
1 - C/NE/DDO
VC/NIC
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