TALKING POINTS FOR ADCI NSPG MEETING ON PERSIAN GULF

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89B00224R000501750001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 13, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 18, 1987
• Content Type: MISC

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ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (optionol)
Talking Points for ADCI for NSPG Meeting on Persian Gulf
FRO""' aniel K. Webster
Tonal Intelligence Officer fo
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FORM
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Talking Points for ADCI
NSPG Meeting on Persian Gulf
18 September 1987
Militar Prospects: Although the US ship protection regime has been
going relatively well, we are by no means out of the woods. Absence of a
clash between US and Iranian forces thus far has resulted from a combination
of Iranian caution and US restraint, as well as a bit of good luck. While
Iran has not attacked US forces directly, they continue with provocations
which could have resulted in clashes--and yet may.
-- No US-protected vessel since the "Bridgeton" has hit a mine. This
has been the result of a combination of effective military operations
and good fortune, not a result of Iranian restraint.
-- Silkworm missiles fired at Kuwait from the Fao Peninsula came close
to and could well have struck a US-flag tanker--the "Surf City"--which
was at anchor off the Kuwaiti coast. Had this occurred, the US would
have been faced with tough decisions. In this instance we definitely
benefited from good luck.
In sum, the Iranians are refraining from direct attacks on US targets,
but they are continuing activities which, if successful, could reasonably be
expected to provoke a US response. US restraint is a double-edged sword,
however: it calms the situation in the Gulf--at least temporarily--and buys
time for further diplomatic action, but it also may reinforce Tehran's
conception of the US as a "paper tiger" and encourage additional Iranian
provocations.
With Perez de Cuellar now out of the area, the war in the Gulf will
almost certainly heat up again, with increased chances for incidents that
will involve the US and--possibly--other countries.
-- The new mines recently obtained from Libya are a significantly
bigger threat to shipping than the old moored mines already used by Iran.
-- Silkworms are still located in Iranian controlled areas near
Kuwait, and more launches can be expected.
-- Increased naval attacks on vessels in the Saudi trade are likely.
Political/Diplomatic Situation: Prospects for additional UN action are
increasingly dim. The Iranians have been very successful in obfuscating
their position on UNSC Resolution 598. They have yielded nothing of
substance, but have hinted at flexibility sufficiently to play to the desire
of a number of states to avoid a new resolution on sanctions.
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S E C R E 11
-- The Secretary-General got conflicting signals from his contacts in
Tehran, and has no idea of what the real Iranian position is on UNSC 598.
-- Japan, West German, and Italy profess to see some cause for
optimism in recent Iranian statements, and are unlikely to support a new
UNSC resolution in the near future.
-- Moscow is still walking both sides of the street. Publicly, there
is a lot of talk about improving relations, but there has been
remarkably little practical movement.
that Moscow and Tehran have been unable even to reach agreement
on a minor joint shipping venture in the Caspian.
-- The Chinese are being singularly unhelpful to US initiatives, and
have just signed a new $200 million arms contract with Iran. Total
value of Chinese arms contracts negotiated in the past several months is
over half a billion dollars.
The Arab League foreign ministers are scheduled to meet on Sunday to
further discuss the situation. Kuwait and Riyadh will push for strong
measures against Iran, but no practical steps are likely to result. For a
variety of reasons, strong actions being pushed by Saudi Arabia will be
opposed by Syria, Libya, Algeria, Oman, and the UAE. With at least five
dissenters, no Arab concensus can emerge.
Iranian President Ali Khamenei will be coming to the UN General Assembly
session, and is scheduled to address the Assembly on 22 September. His
speech will be watched carefully as the "official" Iranian response to UNSC
Resolution 598. While we have no indications thus far of what he plans to
say, it is probable that his message will be ambiguous, and will be
successful in stalling further on a follow-up resolution.
NIO/NESA
SECRET)
25X1
25X1
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