SOVIET DEFENSE COSTING ESTIMATE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89B00423R000100060007-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2008
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: June 26, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/12/04: CIA-RDP89B00423R000100060007-2
JrLIKa1
DDI #03709-84
26 June 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM Deputy Director for Intelligence
SUBJECT Soviet Defense Costing Estimate
1. I have pursued the question of a joint CIA/DIA estmate
on Soviet defense spending tp be issued in September or
October. Let me describe the obstacle that I have discovered.
People around town talk about-CIA and DIA costing estimates as if
they were two equally elaborate analytical efforts with equal
validity based on the accumulation of intelligence data.
Although it sounds parochial, the time has come to face
reality: the comparison is not between apples and apples or
apples and oranges but between an apple and a raisin.
-- DIA's dollar effort on costing which is based on 150 of
300 weapons programs is based principally on
projections, not data. For example, we will not do
estimates on Soviet procurement for 1983 til 1985
because the data won't be available -- the work we are
currently doing will be for 1982, just as last year's
paper was on 1981.
-- In their 1983 assessment, part of which was announced
last month, they cite serial production of a follow-on
to the SS-19 missile. There is absolutely no evidence
to a follow-on to that missile in test much less that
one is in serial production. So we have no idea where
they get that.
-- With respect to ruble costing or level of burden, you
should understand that DIA simply extrapolates a
straight line projection of one-third of the state
budget from year to year.
-- Moreover, there is no requirement inside DIA that the
data of one assessment be internally consistent with
that of another or even internally within the same
estimate. The fact is we ended up having to help DIA
understand what they themselves were doing.
Cl By Signer
DECL OADR
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bEUKET
2. Before we set in concrete how to approach this "common
estimate" for this fall, T think u both need about 20 minutes
from Doug MacEachin and not just on the 25X1
methodological differences in approach between ourselves and DIA
but, more importantly, the difference in the scope and
sophistication of the effort. As indicated above, DIA is trying
to put out figures on 1983; we are unprepared to do that because
we do not have data in hand that would enable us to do it with
any confidence much less high confidence. So right there is a
major difference in approach on the costing es we are doing
right now that will make this very difficult. 25X1
3. I think all three of us probably wish this whole costing
effort would just disappear because I don't know of a single
substantive subject that breeds as much heartburn and as little
positive return. Nevertheless, we have to deal with it and I
think it is important that you be able to convey the difference
in the effort as between CIA and DIA in a conversation with the
Secretary. From my vantage point, and we can discuss it further
when I return, a joint paper looks out of the question. Separate
papers are a possibility but,we have such great uncertainties
about projections that are less than a year old that we would
prefer only to do 1982 rather-than 1983. I am asking Dick Kerr
to set up a meeting between the two. of you and the two from SOVA
so that you can hear some of this first-hand and get a better
appreciation of the problem. It is more thnn t a difference
in numbers between the two agencies 25X1
2
SECRET
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DzUrU 1
DDI #03709-84
26 June 1984
SUBJECT: Soviet Defense Costing Estimate
DISTRIBUTION:
0
- DCI
1
- DDCI
1
- EXDIR
1
- ER
1
- ADDI
1
- D/SOVA
1
- DDI Registry
1
- DDI Chrono
DDI/RMGates/d~
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