CORE INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89B00423R000300210029-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2008
• Sequence Number: 29
• Publication Date: September 20, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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20 SEP 1984
NOTE FOR:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
Deputy Director of Operations
National Security Agency
Richard J. Kerr
Chairman
Intelligence Producers Council
Core Intelligence Capability
1. On 13 September I met with) to discuss the way we
will have to res and to an SSCI directive tote testablish intelligence
capability.
2. The attached material provides the background and our plan. When you have
had a chance to look over the material, I would like to discuss with you whether there is
a place for NSA in all of this~-7
Attachment:
As stated
Regrode to CONFIDENTIAL on
Removal of Attachment.
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SUBJECT: Core Intelligence Capability
Distribution:
I - ADDI
I - DDI Registry
I - IPC Staff (Chrono)
I - IPC Staff Subject
I - IPC Staff
DDI/IPCStaff
(14 September 1984)
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StC.:I-tt I
Core Intelligence Capability
Retyped from Page 18 of SSCI Report
The DCI requests an increase of more thar~personnel in FY 1985 to support
expanded analysis and production and related support activities. This request continues
the significant expansion of analytic manpower begun in 1979. However, despite major
manpower increases authorized in the past for analysis and production, data provided to
the Committee indicates that relatively few of the 166 countires listed in DCID 1/2 as
being of interest to U.S. intelligence, receive adequate analytic attention. There is
reason to believe that the absence of such analytic research is a factor in the inability of
the Community to develop a comprehensive worldwide intelligence data base needed to
provide surge and contingency support.
Accordingly, the Committee directs the DCI to develop a program to establish a
"core" level of analytic effort against each country listed in DCID 1/2 and provide
implementation plans to the Committee no later than September 30, 1984. This plan
should address the full range of intelligence requirements listed in DCID 1/2 and assess if
full time political, economic, and military analysts are required on a country by country
basis. Further, the plan should identify those "core" analysis positions requiring a
language proficiency. The DCI shall designate, from among the total positions
authorized for analysis and production in fiscal year 1985, a sufficient number of
positions to provide the "core" level of analysis identified in this plan. With the
exception of positions specifically allocated by this report* to foreign
counterintelligence analysis and the intelligence activities of the Department of Energy
and Treasury, none of the funds authorized for increased civilian positions for analysis
and production for fiscal year 1985, may be obligated until such time as the DCI submits
his plan to the Committee and the Committee approves that plan, as confirmed by a
letter from the Chairman and Vice Chairman.
hose positions exempted are FBI Foreign Counterintelligence, the Department of
Energy and the Department of Treasury.
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2 8 JUL 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Honorable Barry M. Goldwater.
Chairman, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
SUBJECT Building a "Core Intelligence Capability"
REFERENCE SSCI Report on FY 1985 NFIP Budget
1.- In response to your comments, as conveyed by Senator
Wallop, on the need to assign analytical resources realistically
and effectively, I share your concern that the Intelligence
Community make every effort to provide the necessary coverage
over the entire range of countries, regions, and topics of
interest to the United. States.' As you are well aware, there are
certain resource limitations which prevent the depth of analyst
assignments that we might.prefer under other circumstances.
Nevertheless, I feel that within these lir.i_tations we are
steadily developing the intelligence base needed by our
customers. The attached report shows how this is being done.
2. I hasten to add that we are certainly thin in covering
some countries which are currently viewed to be of low priority,
and that some of these countries could quickly become crisis
areas. So there is room for improvement. I have proposed some
changes which will, to the best of our ability, help anticipate
these occurrences.
3. I hope that this response will satisfy your present
concern.
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William J. Casey
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I share the concerns expressed by the Committee and strongly.
support the :goal of enhancing our worldwide intelligence
capability. -I agree with the Cammittee's broad definition of a
"core intelligence capability" --that is, one that encompasses
political, economic, military, and special topics, and includes
attention to those parts of the Third World that presently are
quiet, but which could quickly become areas of crisis requiring
direct or indirect US. involvement.
-- For example, in the last few years we have seen
situations develop -- in Iran, Afghanistan, the
Falklands, and Grenada -- where relatively quiet areas
became hotspots in a short space of time.
In response to your concern, please be assured that we have
been, and continue to direct our resources and planning to
achieve my goal to.have.a body of capable analysts supported worldwide database. In method, I submit that arregional
approach of analyst assignment for most Third World countries is
the preferable option to one.based on a country-by-country
assignment. This approach permits greater flexibility in
studying problems which are becoming more often regional in
scope. Similarly, this approach permits an analyst to be moved
to manage a crisis more easily. When a problem of the dimensions
of Central America emerges, we do form task forces of our
resident experts to ensure that-we can fully support a wide range
of urgent National policy decisions.
To ensure that we are aligned with your desires, I am
directing the Intelligence Producers Council to conduct a
systematic examination of analyst capabilities, including
language requirements, against existing and anticipated
intelligence requirements. I expect to have this report by early
next year and shall share the results with you. These findings
shall provide a basis for subsequent resource planning.
There are several sources of intelligence requirements t o
which we must be re.sponsi-ve. --- Your-.-reference to DCID 1/2 is
relevant. However, even-more essential direction from the
policymakers-is contained in the National Intelligence Topics of
Current Interests (NITS). We must, therefore, build a "core
intelligence capability" in terms of both information and
analytical expertise that is sufficient to address the full range
of issues contained in the (NITS) while being attentive to the
requirements reflected in DCID 1/2. Within the past two years
the Intelligence Producers Council, at my direction, has. taken
steps to revitalize the NIT process and make it a dynamic forum
Intelligence Capability
24_ Julya:2984
Plan-to Establish a Core
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for cbmmunicati.ng important intelligence needs from-'the consumers
to the producers-. . Part of this process is' regular reporting to
the consumers on-how.'well the Community is responding to these
needs .and- on significant information. gaps for specific collection
action As a-result, the DCID 1/2 has. become a more general
reference tool that provides detailed presentation of the....
.relative emphasis being given to the various category and c .ountry
issues by the intelligence producers, and general guidance for
the collection program managers.-.
We in the Intelligence Community have, of course, given
considerable -thought to our requirements on a continuing basis.
I would like to review for you some of the major initiatives we
have undertaken in recent years to work toward building a "core
intelligence capability" that can meet these tasks. These
initiatives address four principal areas of concern:
-- the building and allocation of analytical resources;
-- increased efforts to develop worldwide data bases;
-- introduction of additional high-technology Automated
Data Processing (ADP) equipment and techniques; and
measures to foster the development of enhanced
analytical expertise through travel, training -
including language training -- and improved working
conditions.
Allocating Resources
As the Committee is aware, Intelligence Community resources
were cut back severely in the 1970s. Over the past several
we have been moving steadily -- with the su years
--
to build a comprehensive knowledge base.-- "core intelligence
capability." 0
This has been a careful process and each year the Community
components have:
reexamined intelligence requirements (as prioritized in
the NITs and in DCID 1
/2),
reviewed their capabilities,
- identified the -'niost pressing shortfalls,
and proposed new initiatives-to redress those
shortfalls.
We have made considerable headway during the last few
years. The following chart shows where we stand today in terms
of requests for community-wide analytical resources:
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terminals at their desks; and this-is Ialready pays
.dividends in terms of fi-nished intelligence Y otg
production.
F
._ _.r h . has immediate
access to a mi'irh _i__ y+e.. , _
the SAFE system of . support for analysts. SAFE provides
for the. automated routing of incoming messages, on-Line
filing of data, and a strong information retrieval
capability. ?An anal st with SA
At CIA the major ADP initiative is th
Core SAFE capability is being expanded t D provide
analysts with a number of additional capabilities as the
program moves through the decade. Starting in 1985,
analysts will- be able to read current cables, search
against data bases of previously stored cable traffic,
compose and coordinate draft intelligence reports, and
perform a variety of related functions within the SAFE
env i ronmen't . Looking beyond 1985, CIA will seek
additional resources to:
Expand access to SAFE.-.
-- Equip more analysts and analytic support personnel
with terminals
d
an
associated devices.
-- Integrate country-specific requirements for all
collection systems into a single database.
The SAFE system is being developed and implemented
jointly with DIA. In addition to the above SAFE
functions, DIA is developing the_ Integrated Data
bUDSeTS will be
incorproate withthe local data bases maintained at
various echelons in the field. Implementation of this
reference data base architecture, known as the Military
Intelligence Support Systems (MISS), will follow an
incremental approach, starting with the establishment of
the IdB on SAFE.
In March 1984 the INR information handling system reached
Initial Operational Capability (IOC). The system
provides electronic dissemination of intelligence
information to INR analysts based od user profiles.
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Terminals supporting this system are multi
_purpase,' i.e.,
they can access the INR system as well as the
Department's iCentral System. INR analysts currently have
access to Intelligence Community data bases on the COINS
-network
-- In May 1984 INR contracted with the Planning Research.
'Corporation to study INR.'s information handling
requirements through the '1990s. The study is to be
conducted in three phases: Phase 1 is to, redefine INR
analyst requirements and develop a model INR system;
Phase 2 will address system analysis and recommended
action; and Phase 3 will identify impacts and develop a
transition document. This study, when completed, should
provide INR with a development plan which will bring its
information handling capabilities into line with those in
the rest of the Intelligence Community.
Other Enhancement'I.nitiatives
It would be impractical in a single memorandum to detail the
great variety of other initiatives that we are taking in the
Community to foster the development of an appropriate "core
intelligence capability." I would like to highlight, however,
'some of the major programs that contribute toward this goal.
-- Language Training. The Committee is correct in focusing
on the language capabilities issue. Such expertise
clearly deepens the understanding i,ur analysts have of
foreign cultures. At CIA, we have a Language Incentive
.-Program which pays a financial bonus to those who improve
and maintain their language capabilities- There is also
a Defense Advanced Language and Area Studies Program that
targets especially-difficult-to-obtain Third World
language capabilities. INR benefits from the extensive
language training programs of the Foreign Service
Institute., We currently have Community
reading, and/or speaking skills in __]languages s ageh
dialects.. lnguages and
External Analysis. This is an area that has also been.
reinforced strongly in recent years..-- We Lenefit from
such contracts both in terms of filling gaps in our -
knowledge of. the,.world fr.om_-experts outside of
government--- some of whom have lived for many years in a
particular foreign .country -- and also in terms of giving
our analysts direct access to professionals with
reputations for excellence in their fields.
Further Measures Planned
The Intelligence Commun i ty.,wi l 1. continue to move ahead
systematically with these''efforts to develop and enhance our
"core capability". In addition, we intend to carry out the
following two-part plan:'
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Part I
I will ask 'the Intelligence Producers -Entinril
review
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regions of 'the world, as well as international issues'-"are
being covered by. available analytic resources. Particular
attention will be given to potentially volatile situations
or crisis areas which might. not normally be considered high
priority targets. The IPC-..wi l l report to me on. the results
of its initial review, by early -1985, and will advise me
thereafter when adjustments appear necessary, or when
additional analysts are needed to provide adequate
coverage. I will share this information with the
Congressional Intelligence Oversight Committees. Any new
resource requests growing out of these reports will be made
n2rt nF +$," ---..1 L..J--~ -
Intelligence Community Staff v The 25X1
annual National Intelligence a attachment ment to DCID
1/2, and other sources of requirements and p rio'rities will
serve as the basis for these.reviews.
Part II
The Executive Director, CIA, has already directed
component manager's. within the CIA-to carry out a study to
ensure that we can react rapidly and effectively to crises
or contingency situations in areas not routinely covered in-
depth by the Intellience Community.
This study will: -
--
Identify improvements that would lead to a more rapid
and effective surge capability in crisis situations.
--
Determine which of these improvements should
addressed at the Community level and which we
handle at the Agency level.
be
should
I have directed that internal CIA improvements be carried
out as soon as practical and will recommend similar Community
action to the National Foreign,Intelligence._Council.
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Core Intelligence Capability
Guidelines
for
Review of Analytic Resources and
Capabilities Against Target Countries
and Topics
1. Background. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) directed the DCI
to develop a program to establish a "core level" of analytic effort against each country
listed in DCID 1/2 (SSCI Report on FY1985 NFIP). The DCI responded by advising the
Chairman, SSCI, of his intention, inter alia, to have the Intelligence Producers Council
review on a regular basis how well the various countries and regions of the world, as well
as international issues, are being covered by analytic resources (DCI memo to Chairman,
SSCI, 28 July 1984).
2. IPC Objective. In general, the IPC is to assess the analytic resources and
capabilities, including language requirements, assigned against existing and anticipated
intelligence requirements, specifically against target countries and global topics. The
review will be accomplished on a regular basis and the findings and recommendations
reported to the Director of Central Intelligence. (This effort should represent, in part,
an appraisal of the Community's performance against the "1985 Capabilities Study.")C
3. Procedures. The following points comprise the major procedural considerations to
meet the objective.
a. Appointment of a Study Director. A study director is necessary to direct all
review activities, direct the preparation of interim and final reports, and ensure
the coordination of findings and recommendations. The Study Director shall also be
prepared to pursue related tasks that develop during the course of this review
which will support the accomplishment of the objective.
b. Determination of the size and composition of the study group (including IPC
Staff participation). The study group should be composed of teams, representing
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the -participating organizations, to address the various elements of the study. The
study director should have a core staff to coordinate research, report editing and
collation, and to manage administrative details.
c. An Executive Review Group, comprised of senior intelligence production
managers, should be constituted to oversee the direction and progress of this task.
This body may be the IPC.
d. Preparation of terms of reference. The terms of reference, to be developed by
the Study Director, with the concurrence of the IPC, should incorporate both long-
and short-term objectives, the method of approach, and address the implications of
the study process itself on future reviews.
e. Identification of major problem areas and alternate courses of action. It is
incumbent upon the study director and group, as well as the IPC, to identify major
problems associated with either the management of analytic resources or with
assessments of skill levels or skill mixes.
f. Preparation of an interim and final report for the DCI. The DCI is obligated to
advise the Congressional Oversight Committees of the state of the Intelligence
Community's analytic resources and capabilities. In anticipation of a requirement
to address this topic at one or more budget hearings, an interim report is essential
to apprise the DCI and the program managers of the progress of the study. Briefs
or informal correspondence with the DCI should be expected.
g. Coordination of resource-related matters with the Director, IC Staff. As a
result of this study, any recommendations or findings having manning/budget
implications must be brought to attention of the D/ICS.
h. Determination of the frequency of reviews. As a result of this study, the IPC
should recommend to the DCI the frequency of reviews to satisfy Congressional
interest (e.g., annual, biennial, triennial).
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i. Determination of the optimum means to collect and evaluate information. The
Study Director must establish the mechanism for acquiring, displaying, collating,
and evaluating information obtained in the course of this study. One consideration
is a combination of surveys and interviews.
4. Key Points for Study Group Guidance. As a minimum, the following points should
be considered by the Study Group and incorporated in the terms of reference.
a. Establishment of qualitative and quantitative measures for assessing the
effectiveness of analytic resources against the entire range of geographic and
topical targets. (How good are the analysts-experience level, training acquired,
demonstrated performance? Are there enough of the right kind? Is the target
adequately covered? What is the relationship of analysts to intelligence
requirements priorities?)
b. Definition of analyst. (Who is included? Excluded?)
c. Determination of the "core." (What constitutes the core? How is the core
established? What are the shortcomings?)
d. Determination of a language skill. (In view of the stress on improving language
skills, what are the effects of language training on analyst skills, productivity,
career development? What is the cost-benefit relationship?)
e. Evaluation of how, and how effectively, analytic resources are shifted to "hot
spot" targets. (How flexible are analysts? What is the effect on research areas
when analysts are moved away? What are the effects of a task force or surge--for
old and new research areas?)
f. Consideration of the importance or relationship of the analyst with available
data bases. (How well is the analyst trained to use automated or manual data
bases? What are the shortcomings or trends associated with new, more flexible
data bases and terminals? How well do automated data bases help the analyst?)
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g. -Examination of training on analytic skills. (How well do organizational training
programs serve the analyst? How useful are the many analytical methodologies for
the analyst?)
h. Examination of the effects of promotions, major career shifts, and normal
attrition on the stability of analytic expertise on a target country or topic. (How
well is a target covered? Do shifts into one area tend to offset analysts moves out
of that area?)
i. Examination of the Community's management approach or philosophy to
determine the rationale for allocation of analytic resources. (is there a current of
turbulence or uncertainty among analysts? What drives the growth or decline
among analytic components?)
j. Identification of trends. (What trends or implications are evident from an all-
encompassing examination of this kind? Does it lead to optimism for the
Community's management and planning? What other areas need to be examined?)
k. Recommendations. (What important considerations should be brought to the
attention of the DCI? What changes need to be made as a Community?)
5. Participation. DIA, CIA, and State/INR should have the primary responsibility for
this project. Participation should include the Services, U&S commands
Coordination should be accomplished with the Director and interested
components of the IC Staff.
6. Milestones.
a. By 15 October 1984:
b. By 15 January 1985:
c. By I March 1985:
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Constitute Study Group and
Develop Terms of Reference
Complete Survey and
Measurements. Prepare Interim
Report to DCI.
Complete Compilation of Data
and Evaluation of Results.
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d. By 30 March 1985: Prepare Final Report and Obtain
IPC Concurrence.
e. By 15 April 1985: Deliver Report to DCI.
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