24TH ANNUAL NAVAL INTELLIGENCE DINING-IN SPEECH

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 1, 2013
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 8, 1987
• Content Type: MISC

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24TH ANNUAL NAVAL INTELLIGENCE DINING?IN
8 OCTOBER 1987
RADISSON MARK PLAZA HOTEL ? ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA
ROBERT M. GATES
DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN:
I AM HONORED TO SPEAK TONIGHT AT THIS DINING IN OF THE
OFFICE OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE, THE FIRST ORGANIZATION IN
AMERICAN HISTORY CREATED SPECIFICALLY FOR THE COLLECTION OF
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INTELLIGENCE.A YOUR ANTECEDENTS STRETCH BACK TO MAJOR BENJAMIN
TALMADGE OF THE SECOND REGIMENT, LIGHT DRAGOONS, NOMINATED BY
GENERAL WASHINGTON IN THE WAR OF INDEPENDENCE TO FORM AN
ESPIONAGE SERVICE AGAINST THE BRITISH NAVY. THE TRADITION OF
NAVAL INTELLIGENCE ENCOMPASSES ACTIVITIES IN THE WAR OF 1812,
THE MEXICAN WAR (WHEN IN 1846 NAVY SURGEON WILLIAM MAXWELL WOOD
UNDERTOOK A SPY MISSION DEEP INTO MEXICAN TERRITORY BEFORE THE
OUTBREAK OF HOSTILITIES), AND OF COURSE A ROLE IN THE CIVIL
WAR.
IT WAS ON 23 MARCH 1882 THAT SECRETARY OF THE NAVY WILLIAM
HUNT SIGNED GENERAL ORDER 292 CREATING AN OFFICE OF
INTELLIGENCE ATTACHED TO THE BUREAU OF NAVIGATION. IN JUNE OF
THAT YEAR, THIRTY FOUR YEAR OLD LT. THEODORUS BAILEY MYERS
MASON WAS SELECTED AS ITS FIRST CHIEF INTELLIGENCE OFFICER --
THE FIRST IN THE LONG LINE LEADING TO ADMIRAL STUDEMAN.
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AS JEFFREY DORWART STATES IN HIS HISTORY OF THE OFFICE OF
NAVAL INTELLIGENCE:
"GRADUALLY THE NEW INTELLIGENCE OFFICE FILLED ITS HEAVY
WOODEN CABINETS AND BOOKCASES WITH DATA. INFORMATION ON
THE SPECIFICATIONS, SPEED, AND ARMAMENTS OF THE WORLD'S
WARSHIPS LAY ON INDEX CARDS. OTHER FILES RECORDED NEW
CONSTRUCTION AND PROPOSED FOREIGN NAVAL BUDGETS.
INTELLIGENCE ON NAVAL PERSONNEL, TRAINING SCHOOLS,
ORGANIZATIONS, OFFICER CORPS, DOCKYARDS, AND RESERVE FORCES
SOON BECAME AVAILABLE TO ANY U.S. NAVAL OFFICER OR BUREAU
WISHING THE LATEST ON THESE TOPICS. ONI ACCUMULATED DATA
ON ORDNANCE, ARMOR TRIALS, TORPEDOES, BOILERS, ENGINES,
PROPELLORS, MILITARY MASTS, ELECTRIC SEARCHLIGHTS,
HYDRAULIC GEARS, AND DYNAMOS. NATURAL RESOURCES, COMMERCE,
TOPOGRAPHY, MUNITIONS FACTORIES, AND POLITICAL CONDITIONS
RECEIVED ATTENTION. INDEED, ANYTHING RELATING TO NAVAL
AFFAIRS MIGHT BE FOUND IN THE GROWING FILES OF INFORMATION."
FOR THESE ACHIEVEMENTS, MASON WAS PROMOTED TO LIEUTENANT
COMMANDER -- AFTER 22 YEARS IN GRADE AS A LIEUTENANT.
ONI FINALLY CAME INTO ITS OWN AS A BUREAUCRATIC EMPIRE IN
FEBRUARY 1899 WHEN CONGRESS ESTABLISHED IT AS AN INDEPENDENT
OFFICE WITH FIVE CIVILIAN CLERKS, ONE TRANSLATOR, A DRAFTSMAN,
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AND ONE LABORER. THESE OPENINGS ALSO BROUGHT THE FIRST
PERMANENT WOMAN EMPLOYEE INTO NAVAL INTELLIGENCE -- NANNY E.
KUHLMAN, A TRANSLATOR.
THE SAGA OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE, AND ITS PERIODS OF GROWTH
AND RETRENCHMENT, IS THE HISTORY OF AMERICAN MILITARY AND
INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES IN MICROCOSM. NOW, SIX YEARS INTO THE
LATEST CYCLE OF RESTORATION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF OUR
DEFENSE AND INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES, WE SEE THE NATION
BEGINNING ONCE AGAIN TO WEARY OF THE BURDEN, TO QUESTION THE
VALUE AND IMPORTANCE OF OUR DEFENSE EFFORTS.
AS WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE, A SOVIET DESIRE FOR BREATHING SPACE
TO TRY TO REVIVE A CRUMBLING ECONOMY, TO RESCUSITATE INTERNAL
POLITICAL VITALITY AND TO ESTABLISH A HIGHER TECHNOLOGICAL BASE
FOR RENEWED MILITARY COMPETITION IS GREETED BY WESTERN PUNDITS
AS SIGNALING THE LONG AWAITED TURN FROM COMPETITION TO
COOPERATION, FROM SOVIET EXTERNAL EXPANSION TO INTERNAL
DEVELOPMENT. WE ARE ASSURED, AS WE HAVE BEEN BEFORE, THAT
MOSCOW'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AND ITS NEW LEADERS WILL REIN IN
SOVIET MILITARY PROGRAMS AND SUPPORT FOR CLIENT STATES.
AS OPTIMISM AND WISHFUL THINKING GROW WITH THE LATEST NEWS
OF REFORM AND GLASNOST OUT OF MOSCOW, WE IN INTELLIGENCE MUST
PROVIDE NOT ONLY THE FACTS BUT ALSO HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE AND
UNDERSTANDING WITH RESPECT TO THE TRUE NATURE OF OUR ADVERSARY
AND OF THE STRATEGIC COMPETITION.
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DISCUSSION IN THE UNITED STATES OF THE SOVIET CHALLENGE FOR
TOO MANY YEARS HAS FOCUSED ON A VERY NARROW ASPECT OF THE
COMPETITION -- WEAPONS PROGRAMS AND MILITARY CAPABILITIES,
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES AND DEBATES ABOUT BOTH COUNTRIES'
MILITARY SPENDING. IT IS IMPORTANT THAT, DESPITE THE SIGNALS
COMING FROM MOSCOW, WE IN INTELLIGENCE SEE NO SLACKENING IN
MILITARY PROGRAMS OR WEAPONS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT. IT IS
IMPORTANT THAT MORE THAN A BILLION DOLLARS IN MILITARY
EQUIPMENT HAS BEEN SENT TO VIETNAM, LAOS AND CAMBODIA IN THE
FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THIS YEAR; THAT SOVIET BLOC AND CUBAN AID
TO NICARAGUA IS NOW RUNNING OVER A BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR; AND
THAT ANGOLA HAS RECEIVED FOUR BILLION DOLLARS IN SOVIET HELP
SINCE 1984. SOVIET MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO THE THIRD WORLD HAS
EXCEEDED $15 BILLION IN EACH OF THE LAST THREE YEARS AND IS
LIKELY TO GO EVEN HIGHER IN 1987.
BUT I WOULD SUBMIT THAT THIS APPROACH, WHILE NECESSARY, BY
ITSELF HAS LIMITED OUR NATIONAL ATTENTION TOO MUCH TO A DEBATE
ABOUT NUMBERS AND TOO LITTLE TO WHY WE ARE ENGAGED IN THIS
CONFRONTATION IN THE FIRST PLACE, THE REAL NATURE OF THAT
CONTEST, AND ITS HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
THE NUMBERS TOO OFTEN HAVE CROWDED OUT HISTORY AND MEANING,
AND OUR CITIZENS AND PERHAPS TOO MANY HERE IN WASHINGTON
QUESTION THE COST AND RISK OF THE COMPETITION BECAUSE THEY
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OFTEN DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF THE CONTEST ITSELF.
INDEED, ABOUT A YEAR AGO, WASHINGTON POST COLUMNIST HOBART
ROWEN ARGUED THAT TO STOP THE DECLINE OF AMERICAN GLOBAL
ECONOMIC POWER, "WE MUST ... STOP POURING THE NATION'S WEALTH
DOWN A MILITARY DRAIN. WE MUST FIND WAYS OF ACHIEVING ARMS
CONTROL AND DETENTE WITH THE SOVIET UNION, AND THEN REGAIN THE
MEANS TO FINANCE A REVITALIZATION OF OUR OWN ECONOMY AND THAT
OF THE THIRD WORLD." SUCH A PERSPECTIVE ON THE US?SOVIET
CONTEST, AND IT IS A WIDELY SHARED PERSPECTIVE, IS
SHORT?SIGHTED, OVER?SIMPLIFIED AND DEEPLY TROUBLING.
MY TWENTY?ONE YEARS IN INTELLIGENCE, DURING WHICH I HAD
COUNTLESS OPPORTUNITIES TO OBSERVE FIRST?HAND THE WORK OF
VARIOUS ELEMENTS OF OUR GOVERNMENT, HAVE CONVINCED ME THAT
WASHINGTON IS A CITY WITH HISTORICAL AMNESIA. DECISIONS TOO
OFTEN ARE MADE WITHOUT KNOWLEDGE OF RELEVANT HISTORY AND THUS
WITHOUT PERSPECTIVE AND CONTEXT. I AM THEREFORE A STRONG
BELIEVER THAT US INTELLIGENCE, IN ADDITION TO PROVIDING CURRENT
INFORMATION AND FACTS, MUST ALSO ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR
PROVIDING THAT PERSPECTIVE. BECAUSE NO ONE ELSE CAN OR WILL,
ALL OF US IN INTELLIGENCE MUST, WHENEVER APPROPRIATE, COUCH OUR
ASSESSMENTS AND OUR FORECASTS IN A BROADER HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
INDEED, I BELIEVE THAT WHEN US INTELLIGENCE ITSELF HAS GONE
ASTRAY IT HAS OFTEN BEEN BECAUSE WE TOO FORGOT THE HISTORY AND
FORGOT THE CONTEXT. AND SO, I WOULD LIKE TO OFFER IN THE NEXT
TEN MINUTES A VIEW OF THE US?SOVIET CONFLICT, A HISTORICAL
PERSPECTIVE, THAT I BELIEVE IS TOO RARELY CONSIDERED.
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FIRST, TO THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT. SOME WOULD HAVE US
BELIEVE THAT THIS COMPETITION IS YET ANOTHER EPISODE OF GREAT
POWER RIVALRY GROWING OUT OF NATIONALISMS ROOTED IN THE LAST
CENTURY; THAT IT DERIVES FROM A SEARCH FOR SECURITY OR TO
OVERCOME A NATIONAL SENSE OF INFERIORITY; OR A QUEST FOR
MARKETS OR SPHERES OF INFLUENCE, OR A HOST OF OTHER TRADITIONAL
MODERN EUROPEAN STATE OBJECTIVES. MORE RECENTLY, YOU WILL HAVE
HEARD THAT IT IS BASED IN MISUNDERSTANDINGS OR FAILURE AT YALTA
OR THE HOBGOBLIN FANTASIES OF MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEXES ON
BOTH SIDES; THAT THE RIVALRY IS BASED ON OLD FASHIONED
THINKING, AN OUT?DATED COLD WAR MENTALITY, AN EXAGGERATED
SUSPICION OR MISUNDERSTANDING OF THE OTHER SIDE'S INTENTIONS;
OR A SOVIET BUREAUCRACY HERETOFORE LOCKED INTO DIPLOMATIC AND
MILITARY INFLEXIBILITY YET NOW YEARNING TO BREATHE FREE.
THIS OVERINTELLECTUALIZED ANALYSIS REMINDS ME OF THE TIME
MICKEY SPILLANE ATTENDED A LITERARY CONFERENCE AND HEARD A
SCHOLAR DELIVER A DETAILED PAPER, DRAWING PROFOUND CONCLUSIONS
FROM THE DRINKING HABITS OF LITERARY CHARACTERS, INCLUDING MIKE
HAMMER. IN RESPONSE, SPILLANE SHOUTED OUT THAT "MIKE HAMMER
DRINKS BEER AND NOT COGNAC BECAUSE I CAN'T SPELL COGNAC."
SOMETIMES THERE IS A SIMPLE, STRAIGHTFORWARD EXPLANATION FOR
THINGS.
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SO IT IS WITH THE SOVIET CHALLENGE TO AMERICA. I BELIEVE
THAT THE PROPONENTS OF THE STRAINED EXPLANATIONS I HAVE
MENTIONED OF THE ORIGIN OF THE US-SOVIET CONFLICT ALL OVERLOOK
A SINGLE SIMPLE PROPOSITION: THE US-SOVIET STRUGGLE IS, IN
FACT, DEEPLY ROOTED IN IDEAS AND THAT THE IDEAS AND THE
CONFLICT ARE AS OLD AS RECORDED HISTORY. THE THREAT POSED BY
THE SOVIET UNION -- BY RUSSIA -- IS THE LINEAL DESCENDENT OF
THE SAME THREAT WESTERN CIVILIZATIONS HAVE FACED FOR THREE AND
A HALF THOUSAND YEARS: IT IS THE THREAT POSED BY DESPOTISM AND
DESPOTIC IDEOLOGIES AGAINST THE MORE OR LESS STEADILY
DEVELOPING CONCEPT THAT THE HIGHEST GOAL OF THE STATE IS TO
PROTECT AND FOSTER THE CREATIVE CAPABILITIES AND THE LIBERTIES
OF THE INDIVIDUAL. THE CONTEST BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND
THE SOVIET UNION IS, IN MY VIEW, ONLY THE LATEST CHAPTER IN THE
AGE-OLD CONFLICT[' , Ad)
__--------
THE PERSIANS; THE ROMANS AGAINST ATTILA Ara-T-H-E?HUNS; MEDIEVAL
EUROPE AGAINST GENGHIS A D THE MONGOL HORDE; AND THE HOLY
ROMAN EMPI ST SULEIMAN AND THE OTTOMANS, IT IS A
BETWEEN TWO ELEMENTAL AND HISTORICALLY OPPOSED IDEAS OF
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INDIVIDUAL AND THE STATE. THE
IDEAS ARE IRRECONCILABLE.
THE THREAT FROM THE SOVIET UNION TODAY IS ROOTED IN BOTH A
TOTALITARIAN MARXIST-LENINIST IDEOLOGY AND IN AN ANCIENT
CULTURE AND CIVILIZATION FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT FROM OUR OWN
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-- DESPITE THE BEST EFFORTS OF SOME OBSERVERS AND TO PERSUADE
US THAT THE RUSSIAN LEADERS MUST THINK AS WE DO AND INWARDLY
SHARE THE SAME SPIRITUAL VALUES BECAUSE THEY WEAR LONDON?MADE
SUITS; LIKE JAZZ, AMERICAN CIGARETTES AND FAST CARS; ARE
PERSONABLE AND INTELLIGENT; AND MAY EVEN HAVE THEIR OWN
AMERICAN EXPRESS CARDS.
THE SOVIET STATE AND THE THREAT IT POSES ARE PRODUCTS OF A
UNIQUE INTERACTION OF HISTORY AND IDEOLOGIES ANCIENT AND
MODERN. I BELIEVE IT IS VITAL TO OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE
CHALLENGE WE FACE TO APPRECIATE JUST HOW DIFFERENT RUSSIA --
THE SOVIET UNION -- IS FROM US, TO UNDERSTAND HOW DIFFERENT IS
THEIR HISTORY, CULTURE, AND OUTLOOK. IROVITAED7Tri?TS?MCLU
FOR EXAMPLE, AS TIBOR SZAMUELY HAS OBSERVED, THERE IS A
BASIC FACT THAT TODAY HAS BEEN LARGELY FORGOTTEN OR PASSED IN
SILENCE: "EVERY COUNTRY OF MODERN EUROPE EITHER WAS AT ONE
TIME A PROVINCE OF THE ROMAN EMPIRE OR RECEIVED ITS RELIGION
FROM ROME. RUSSIA IS THE SOLE EXCEPTION. IT IS THE ONLY
COUNTRY OF GEOGRAPHICAL EUROPE THAT OWED VIRTUALLY NOTHING TO
THE COMMON CULTURAL AND SPIRITUAL HERITAGE OF THE WEST."
RUSSIA'S HISTORY WAS ONE OF AGGRESSION TO ACQUIRE NEW
TERRITORY AND, MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, A RELATED STRUGGLE AGAINST
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INVADERS, THAT FOR LENGTH, INTENSITY, AND FEROCITY HAS NO
PARALLEL IN THE ANNALS OF ANY OTHER NATION. THIS WAS RUSSIA
FOR A THOUSAND YEARS. THE CRUEL, RELENTLESS STRUGGLE NEVER
ABATED. IT WAS "THE FIERCE STRUGGLE OF A NATION PLACED ON THE
FRONTIER BETWEEN EUROPE AND ASIA, ON THE GREAT DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN SETTLED AND NOMADIC SOCIETY, BETWEEN CHRISTIAN, MOSLEM,
AND PAGAN." THIS STRUGGLE, COMBINING NATIONAL PURPOSE, MORAL
FERVOUR, AGGRESSION, SELF?DEFENSE, AND EVERYDAY STRUGGLE FOR A
BARE EXISTENCE WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE RUSSIAN
PEOPLE'S TRAVAIL. IT WAS A PERMANENT PART OF HER LIFE FOR MOST
OF HER HISTORY.
THIS WAS A NATIONAL EXPERIENCE AND A NATIONAL EXISTENCE
RADICALLY DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF THE WEST. IT CREATED A SOCIAL
AND POLITICAL SYSTEM, A NATIONAL CHARACTER, A MENTALITY, A WAY
OF LIFE UTTERLY DISSIMILAR TO THE PATTERNS EVOLVED IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL EUROPE. A STATE OF NEVER ENDING WAR GAVE THEIR
SOCIETY DISTINCTIVE FORM. AND YET, FOR CENTURIES, WESTERNERS
HAVE WORKED TO CONVINCE THEMSELVES THAT THIS WAS A STATE LIKE
ANY OTHER, A PEOPLE LIKE THEMSELVES, WITH A SET OF VALUES LIKE
THEIR OWN.
IT IS THIS UNIQUE STATE WHICH WE NOW CONFRONT -- A STATE
AND A CULTURE SHAPED BY A THOUSAND YEARS OF CONSTANT WAR,
SACRIFICE, AND THE CONVICTION THAT RUSSIA'S DESTINY IS TO
ESTABLISH A NEW WORLD ORDER.
.A...11041
STAIN
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WILL DURANT ONCE CALCULATED THAT IN THE LAST 3,400 YEARS OF
RECORDED HISTORY, ONLY 268 HAVE SEEN NO WAR. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, THE TRANSCENDENT CONFLICTS IN HISTORY I DESCRIBED AT
THE OUTSET WERE THOSE BETWEEN THE EMERGING CIVILIZATIONS OF THE
WEST WITH ONE CONCEPT OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AN INDIVIDUAL
AND THE STATE, AND THE DESPOTISMS OF THE EAST WITH A
FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT VIEW. WHEN THOSE WESTERN CIVILIZATIONS
GREW TIRED OR LOST THEIR WILL, OR FOR WHATEVER REASON LET DOWN
THEIR GUARD, DESTRUCTION FOLLOWED. EDWARD GIBBON'S WORDS IN
THE DECLINE AND FALL QE THE ROMAN EMPIRE STILL SEEM RELEVANT
TODAY: "THE ROMANS WERE IGNORANT OF THE EXTENT OF THEIR DANGER
AND THE NUMBER OF THEIR ENEMIES. BEYOND THE RHINE AND THE
DANUBE, THE NORTHERN COUNTRIES OF EUROPE AND ASIA WERE FILLED
WITH INNUMERABLE TRIBES OF HUNTERS AND SHEPHERDS, POOR,
VORACIOUS AND TURBULENT; BOLD IN ARMS AND IMPATIENT TO RAVAGE
THE FRUITS OF INDUSTRY .... THE ENDLESS COLUMN OF BARBARIANS
PRESSED ON THE ROMAN EMPIRE WITH ACCUMULATED WEIGHT."
A THOUSAND YEARS OF RUSSIAN HISTORY -- REINFORCED BY
MARXISM-LENINISM -- TELL THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP THAT CONFLICT IS
INEVITABLE, THAT THE CONTEST FOR SUPREMACY IS UNENDING, THAT
ONE SIDE WILL WIN AND THE OTHER WILL LOSE, AND THAT DESTINY OR
GOD OR THE FORCES OF HISTORY WILL ENSURE RUSSIA'S VICTORY.
AND, I SUGGEST, IT WOULD BE A-E-R-4-0 DANGEROUe MISTAKE
TO CONFUSE THE CURRENT SOVIET DESIRE FOR BREATHING SPACE IN
L.,,fuit-tiol
ORDER TO MODERNIZE WITH A DESIRE TO ABANDON THE COMPETITION.
A
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PRESIDENT KENNEDY SOME 25 YEARS AGO OBSERVED THAT WE WERE
INVOLVED IN A LONG TWILIGHT STRUGGLE. WE HAVE NOW BEEN IN THAT
STRUGGLE FOR JUST 40 YEARS. COMPARE THAT, IF YOU WILL, WITH
THE CENTURIES OF STRUGGLE BETWEEN ROME AND THE BARBARIANS, THE
TWO AND A HALF CENTURY STRUGGLE BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE TATAR
HORDE, AND THE 200 YEAR STRUGGLE AGAINST THE OTTOMANS. IT IS A
LONG STRUGGLE THAT STRETCHES BEFORE US AND THE RUSSIANS ARE
BANKING ON THE FACT THAT WE LACK THE WILL TO SUSTAIN THE
COMPETITION.
AS A FINAL THOUGHT, THEREFORE, I WOULD SUGGEST TO YOU THAT
THE CHIEF THREAT POSED BY THE SOVIET UNION IS NOT NECESSARILY
IN THE VASTNESS OF ITS MILITARY FORCES -- THOUGH VAST THEY ARE,
BUT IN ITS DESPOTIC IDEOLOGY AND; LIKE THE BARBARIANS FACING
ROME, IN THE RELENTLESSNESS AND DIVERSITY OF THEIR ASSAULT,
THE QUESTION OF INESTIMABLE HISTORICAL IMPORTANCE AS WE
CONSIDER OUR NATIONAL PRIORITIES, EXAMINE OUR DEFENSE NEEDS AND
OUR FOREIGN COMMITMENTS, AND STRIVE TO COUNTER A REGATHERING
SOVIET POLITICAL AND MILITARY CHALLENGE IS WHETHER WE WILL
REMEMBER THE ORIGIN AND NATURE OF THE CONTEST, AND THE LESSONS
OF HISTORY: THAT THE WHOLE HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE AND IDEOLOGY
OF OUR ADVERSARY TEACHES HIM THAT CONFLICT IS CONSTANT AND
INEVITABLE; AND THAT EVENTUAL VICTORY IN THE COMPETITION IS
RUSSIA'S DESTINY AND THE JUSTIFICATION FOR ITS CENTURIES OF
HARDSHIP AND SACRIFICE. IT IS OUR TASK IN INTELLIGENCE TO
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POINT TO OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE UNITED STATES AS THE SOVIETS TRY
TO MODERNIZE, BUT ESPECIALLY ALSO TO REMIND OUR LEADERS OF
HISTORICAL REALITIES, AS UNWELCOME, UNPOPULAR, AND
UNFASHIONABLE AS THEY USUALLY ARE,
DESPITE OUR FONDEST HOPES TO FULFILL ISAIAH'S PROPHESY, ALL
OF HUMAN HISTORY -- AND ESPECIALLY ALL OF RUSSIAN HISTORY --
POINTS TO OUR NEED AND THE NEED OF OUR CHILDREN AND THEIR
CHILDREN FOR SWORDS AS WELL AS PLOWSHARES. IT IS NOT A
FORECAST OF AN ALTOGETHER FELCITOUS FUTURE -- BUT IT IS A
FORECAST OF A FREE ONE. AND AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE MUST AND
WILL PLAY A CENTRAL ROLE IN KEEPING IT FREE.
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