24TH ANNUAL NAVAL INTELLIGENCE DINING-IN SPEECH

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7
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RIFPUB
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K
Document Page Count: 
12
Document Creation Date: 
December 23, 2016
Document Release Date: 
March 1, 2013
Sequence Number: 
3
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
October 8, 1987
Content Type: 
MISC
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PDF icon CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7.pdf463.99 KB
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 24TH ANNUAL NAVAL INTELLIGENCE DINING?IN 8 OCTOBER 1987 RADISSON MARK PLAZA HOTEL ? ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA ROBERT M. GATES DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: I AM HONORED TO SPEAK TONIGHT AT THIS DINING IN OF THE OFFICE OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE, THE FIRST ORGANIZATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY CREATED SPECIFICALLY FOR THE COLLECTION OF lelt:d? a, :Ani,? Izat-kei ro u4 y\e-41.4 fr 0 0.4.4C j e. y 41....st adv- IA'444 ft4 INTELLIGENCE.A YOUR ANTECEDENTS STRETCH BACK TO MAJOR BENJAMIN TALMADGE OF THE SECOND REGIMENT, LIGHT DRAGOONS, NOMINATED BY GENERAL WASHINGTON IN THE WAR OF INDEPENDENCE TO FORM AN ESPIONAGE SERVICE AGAINST THE BRITISH NAVY. THE TRADITION OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE ENCOMPASSES ACTIVITIES IN THE WAR OF 1812, THE MEXICAN WAR (WHEN IN 1846 NAVY SURGEON WILLIAM MAXWELL WOOD UNDERTOOK A SPY MISSION DEEP INTO MEXICAN TERRITORY BEFORE THE OUTBREAK OF HOSTILITIES), AND OF COURSE A ROLE IN THE CIVIL WAR. IT WAS ON 23 MARCH 1882 THAT SECRETARY OF THE NAVY WILLIAM HUNT SIGNED GENERAL ORDER 292 CREATING AN OFFICE OF INTELLIGENCE ATTACHED TO THE BUREAU OF NAVIGATION. IN JUNE OF THAT YEAR, THIRTY FOUR YEAR OLD LT. THEODORUS BAILEY MYERS MASON WAS SELECTED AS ITS FIRST CHIEF INTELLIGENCE OFFICER -- THE FIRST IN THE LONG LINE LEADING TO ADMIRAL STUDEMAN. 1 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 AS JEFFREY DORWART STATES IN HIS HISTORY OF THE OFFICE OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE: "GRADUALLY THE NEW INTELLIGENCE OFFICE FILLED ITS HEAVY WOODEN CABINETS AND BOOKCASES WITH DATA. INFORMATION ON THE SPECIFICATIONS, SPEED, AND ARMAMENTS OF THE WORLD'S WARSHIPS LAY ON INDEX CARDS. OTHER FILES RECORDED NEW CONSTRUCTION AND PROPOSED FOREIGN NAVAL BUDGETS. INTELLIGENCE ON NAVAL PERSONNEL, TRAINING SCHOOLS, ORGANIZATIONS, OFFICER CORPS, DOCKYARDS, AND RESERVE FORCES SOON BECAME AVAILABLE TO ANY U.S. NAVAL OFFICER OR BUREAU WISHING THE LATEST ON THESE TOPICS. ONI ACCUMULATED DATA ON ORDNANCE, ARMOR TRIALS, TORPEDOES, BOILERS, ENGINES, PROPELLORS, MILITARY MASTS, ELECTRIC SEARCHLIGHTS, HYDRAULIC GEARS, AND DYNAMOS. NATURAL RESOURCES, COMMERCE, TOPOGRAPHY, MUNITIONS FACTORIES, AND POLITICAL CONDITIONS RECEIVED ATTENTION. INDEED, ANYTHING RELATING TO NAVAL AFFAIRS MIGHT BE FOUND IN THE GROWING FILES OF INFORMATION." FOR THESE ACHIEVEMENTS, MASON WAS PROMOTED TO LIEUTENANT COMMANDER -- AFTER 22 YEARS IN GRADE AS A LIEUTENANT. ONI FINALLY CAME INTO ITS OWN AS A BUREAUCRATIC EMPIRE IN FEBRUARY 1899 WHEN CONGRESS ESTABLISHED IT AS AN INDEPENDENT OFFICE WITH FIVE CIVILIAN CLERKS, ONE TRANSLATOR, A DRAFTSMAN, 2 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01 : CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 ? AND ONE LABORER. THESE OPENINGS ALSO BROUGHT THE FIRST PERMANENT WOMAN EMPLOYEE INTO NAVAL INTELLIGENCE -- NANNY E. KUHLMAN, A TRANSLATOR. THE SAGA OF NAVAL INTELLIGENCE, AND ITS PERIODS OF GROWTH AND RETRENCHMENT, IS THE HISTORY OF AMERICAN MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES IN MICROCOSM. NOW, SIX YEARS INTO THE LATEST CYCLE OF RESTORATION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF OUR DEFENSE AND INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES, WE SEE THE NATION BEGINNING ONCE AGAIN TO WEARY OF THE BURDEN, TO QUESTION THE VALUE AND IMPORTANCE OF OUR DEFENSE EFFORTS. AS WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE, A SOVIET DESIRE FOR BREATHING SPACE TO TRY TO REVIVE A CRUMBLING ECONOMY, TO RESCUSITATE INTERNAL POLITICAL VITALITY AND TO ESTABLISH A HIGHER TECHNOLOGICAL BASE FOR RENEWED MILITARY COMPETITION IS GREETED BY WESTERN PUNDITS AS SIGNALING THE LONG AWAITED TURN FROM COMPETITION TO COOPERATION, FROM SOVIET EXTERNAL EXPANSION TO INTERNAL DEVELOPMENT. WE ARE ASSURED, AS WE HAVE BEEN BEFORE, THAT MOSCOW'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AND ITS NEW LEADERS WILL REIN IN SOVIET MILITARY PROGRAMS AND SUPPORT FOR CLIENT STATES. AS OPTIMISM AND WISHFUL THINKING GROW WITH THE LATEST NEWS OF REFORM AND GLASNOST OUT OF MOSCOW, WE IN INTELLIGENCE MUST PROVIDE NOT ONLY THE FACTS BUT ALSO HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE AND UNDERSTANDING WITH RESPECT TO THE TRUE NATURE OF OUR ADVERSARY AND OF THE STRATEGIC COMPETITION. 3 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 DISCUSSION IN THE UNITED STATES OF THE SOVIET CHALLENGE FOR TOO MANY YEARS HAS FOCUSED ON A VERY NARROW ASPECT OF THE COMPETITION -- WEAPONS PROGRAMS AND MILITARY CAPABILITIES, TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES AND DEBATES ABOUT BOTH COUNTRIES' MILITARY SPENDING. IT IS IMPORTANT THAT, DESPITE THE SIGNALS COMING FROM MOSCOW, WE IN INTELLIGENCE SEE NO SLACKENING IN MILITARY PROGRAMS OR WEAPONS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT. IT IS IMPORTANT THAT MORE THAN A BILLION DOLLARS IN MILITARY EQUIPMENT HAS BEEN SENT TO VIETNAM, LAOS AND CAMBODIA IN THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THIS YEAR; THAT SOVIET BLOC AND CUBAN AID TO NICARAGUA IS NOW RUNNING OVER A BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR; AND THAT ANGOLA HAS RECEIVED FOUR BILLION DOLLARS IN SOVIET HELP SINCE 1984. SOVIET MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO THE THIRD WORLD HAS EXCEEDED $15 BILLION IN EACH OF THE LAST THREE YEARS AND IS LIKELY TO GO EVEN HIGHER IN 1987. BUT I WOULD SUBMIT THAT THIS APPROACH, WHILE NECESSARY, BY ITSELF HAS LIMITED OUR NATIONAL ATTENTION TOO MUCH TO A DEBATE ABOUT NUMBERS AND TOO LITTLE TO WHY WE ARE ENGAGED IN THIS CONFRONTATION IN THE FIRST PLACE, THE REAL NATURE OF THAT CONTEST, AND ITS HISTORICAL CONTEXT. THE NUMBERS TOO OFTEN HAVE CROWDED OUT HISTORY AND MEANING, AND OUR CITIZENS AND PERHAPS TOO MANY HERE IN WASHINGTON QUESTION THE COST AND RISK OF THE COMPETITION BECAUSE THEY 14 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 OFTEN DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF THE CONTEST ITSELF. INDEED, ABOUT A YEAR AGO, WASHINGTON POST COLUMNIST HOBART ROWEN ARGUED THAT TO STOP THE DECLINE OF AMERICAN GLOBAL ECONOMIC POWER, "WE MUST ... STOP POURING THE NATION'S WEALTH DOWN A MILITARY DRAIN. WE MUST FIND WAYS OF ACHIEVING ARMS CONTROL AND DETENTE WITH THE SOVIET UNION, AND THEN REGAIN THE MEANS TO FINANCE A REVITALIZATION OF OUR OWN ECONOMY AND THAT OF THE THIRD WORLD." SUCH A PERSPECTIVE ON THE US?SOVIET CONTEST, AND IT IS A WIDELY SHARED PERSPECTIVE, IS SHORT?SIGHTED, OVER?SIMPLIFIED AND DEEPLY TROUBLING. MY TWENTY?ONE YEARS IN INTELLIGENCE, DURING WHICH I HAD COUNTLESS OPPORTUNITIES TO OBSERVE FIRST?HAND THE WORK OF VARIOUS ELEMENTS OF OUR GOVERNMENT, HAVE CONVINCED ME THAT WASHINGTON IS A CITY WITH HISTORICAL AMNESIA. DECISIONS TOO OFTEN ARE MADE WITHOUT KNOWLEDGE OF RELEVANT HISTORY AND THUS WITHOUT PERSPECTIVE AND CONTEXT. I AM THEREFORE A STRONG BELIEVER THAT US INTELLIGENCE, IN ADDITION TO PROVIDING CURRENT INFORMATION AND FACTS, MUST ALSO ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR PROVIDING THAT PERSPECTIVE. BECAUSE NO ONE ELSE CAN OR WILL, ALL OF US IN INTELLIGENCE MUST, WHENEVER APPROPRIATE, COUCH OUR ASSESSMENTS AND OUR FORECASTS IN A BROADER HISTORICAL CONTEXT. INDEED, I BELIEVE THAT WHEN US INTELLIGENCE ITSELF HAS GONE ASTRAY IT HAS OFTEN BEEN BECAUSE WE TOO FORGOT THE HISTORY AND FORGOT THE CONTEXT. AND SO, I WOULD LIKE TO OFFER IN THE NEXT TEN MINUTES A VIEW OF THE US?SOVIET CONFLICT, A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE, THAT I BELIEVE IS TOO RARELY CONSIDERED. 5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 FIRST, TO THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT. SOME WOULD HAVE US BELIEVE THAT THIS COMPETITION IS YET ANOTHER EPISODE OF GREAT POWER RIVALRY GROWING OUT OF NATIONALISMS ROOTED IN THE LAST CENTURY; THAT IT DERIVES FROM A SEARCH FOR SECURITY OR TO OVERCOME A NATIONAL SENSE OF INFERIORITY; OR A QUEST FOR MARKETS OR SPHERES OF INFLUENCE, OR A HOST OF OTHER TRADITIONAL MODERN EUROPEAN STATE OBJECTIVES. MORE RECENTLY, YOU WILL HAVE HEARD THAT IT IS BASED IN MISUNDERSTANDINGS OR FAILURE AT YALTA OR THE HOBGOBLIN FANTASIES OF MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEXES ON BOTH SIDES; THAT THE RIVALRY IS BASED ON OLD FASHIONED THINKING, AN OUT?DATED COLD WAR MENTALITY, AN EXAGGERATED SUSPICION OR MISUNDERSTANDING OF THE OTHER SIDE'S INTENTIONS; OR A SOVIET BUREAUCRACY HERETOFORE LOCKED INTO DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY INFLEXIBILITY YET NOW YEARNING TO BREATHE FREE. THIS OVERINTELLECTUALIZED ANALYSIS REMINDS ME OF THE TIME MICKEY SPILLANE ATTENDED A LITERARY CONFERENCE AND HEARD A SCHOLAR DELIVER A DETAILED PAPER, DRAWING PROFOUND CONCLUSIONS FROM THE DRINKING HABITS OF LITERARY CHARACTERS, INCLUDING MIKE HAMMER. IN RESPONSE, SPILLANE SHOUTED OUT THAT "MIKE HAMMER DRINKS BEER AND NOT COGNAC BECAUSE I CAN'T SPELL COGNAC." SOMETIMES THERE IS A SIMPLE, STRAIGHTFORWARD EXPLANATION FOR THINGS. 6 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 SO IT IS WITH THE SOVIET CHALLENGE TO AMERICA. I BELIEVE THAT THE PROPONENTS OF THE STRAINED EXPLANATIONS I HAVE MENTIONED OF THE ORIGIN OF THE US-SOVIET CONFLICT ALL OVERLOOK A SINGLE SIMPLE PROPOSITION: THE US-SOVIET STRUGGLE IS, IN FACT, DEEPLY ROOTED IN IDEAS AND THAT THE IDEAS AND THE CONFLICT ARE AS OLD AS RECORDED HISTORY. THE THREAT POSED BY THE SOVIET UNION -- BY RUSSIA -- IS THE LINEAL DESCENDENT OF THE SAME THREAT WESTERN CIVILIZATIONS HAVE FACED FOR THREE AND A HALF THOUSAND YEARS: IT IS THE THREAT POSED BY DESPOTISM AND DESPOTIC IDEOLOGIES AGAINST THE MORE OR LESS STEADILY DEVELOPING CONCEPT THAT THE HIGHEST GOAL OF THE STATE IS TO PROTECT AND FOSTER THE CREATIVE CAPABILITIES AND THE LIBERTIES OF THE INDIVIDUAL. THE CONTEST BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION IS, IN MY VIEW, ONLY THE LATEST CHAPTER IN THE AGE-OLD CONFLICT[' , Ad) __-------- THE PERSIANS; THE ROMANS AGAINST ATTILA Ara-T-H-E?HUNS; MEDIEVAL EUROPE AGAINST GENGHIS A D THE MONGOL HORDE; AND THE HOLY ROMAN EMPI ST SULEIMAN AND THE OTTOMANS, IT IS A BETWEEN TWO ELEMENTAL AND HISTORICALLY OPPOSED IDEAS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INDIVIDUAL AND THE STATE. THE IDEAS ARE IRRECONCILABLE. THE THREAT FROM THE SOVIET UNION TODAY IS ROOTED IN BOTH A TOTALITARIAN MARXIST-LENINIST IDEOLOGY AND IN AN ANCIENT CULTURE AND CIVILIZATION FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT FROM OUR OWN 7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 -- DESPITE THE BEST EFFORTS OF SOME OBSERVERS AND TO PERSUADE US THAT THE RUSSIAN LEADERS MUST THINK AS WE DO AND INWARDLY SHARE THE SAME SPIRITUAL VALUES BECAUSE THEY WEAR LONDON?MADE SUITS; LIKE JAZZ, AMERICAN CIGARETTES AND FAST CARS; ARE PERSONABLE AND INTELLIGENT; AND MAY EVEN HAVE THEIR OWN AMERICAN EXPRESS CARDS. THE SOVIET STATE AND THE THREAT IT POSES ARE PRODUCTS OF A UNIQUE INTERACTION OF HISTORY AND IDEOLOGIES ANCIENT AND MODERN. I BELIEVE IT IS VITAL TO OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE CHALLENGE WE FACE TO APPRECIATE JUST HOW DIFFERENT RUSSIA -- THE SOVIET UNION -- IS FROM US, TO UNDERSTAND HOW DIFFERENT IS THEIR HISTORY, CULTURE, AND OUTLOOK. IROVITAED7Tri?TS?MCLU FOR EXAMPLE, AS TIBOR SZAMUELY HAS OBSERVED, THERE IS A BASIC FACT THAT TODAY HAS BEEN LARGELY FORGOTTEN OR PASSED IN SILENCE: "EVERY COUNTRY OF MODERN EUROPE EITHER WAS AT ONE TIME A PROVINCE OF THE ROMAN EMPIRE OR RECEIVED ITS RELIGION FROM ROME. RUSSIA IS THE SOLE EXCEPTION. IT IS THE ONLY COUNTRY OF GEOGRAPHICAL EUROPE THAT OWED VIRTUALLY NOTHING TO THE COMMON CULTURAL AND SPIRITUAL HERITAGE OF THE WEST." RUSSIA'S HISTORY WAS ONE OF AGGRESSION TO ACQUIRE NEW TERRITORY AND, MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, A RELATED STRUGGLE AGAINST 8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 INVADERS, THAT FOR LENGTH, INTENSITY, AND FEROCITY HAS NO PARALLEL IN THE ANNALS OF ANY OTHER NATION. THIS WAS RUSSIA FOR A THOUSAND YEARS. THE CRUEL, RELENTLESS STRUGGLE NEVER ABATED. IT WAS "THE FIERCE STRUGGLE OF A NATION PLACED ON THE FRONTIER BETWEEN EUROPE AND ASIA, ON THE GREAT DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN SETTLED AND NOMADIC SOCIETY, BETWEEN CHRISTIAN, MOSLEM, AND PAGAN." THIS STRUGGLE, COMBINING NATIONAL PURPOSE, MORAL FERVOUR, AGGRESSION, SELF?DEFENSE, AND EVERYDAY STRUGGLE FOR A BARE EXISTENCE WAS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE'S TRAVAIL. IT WAS A PERMANENT PART OF HER LIFE FOR MOST OF HER HISTORY. THIS WAS A NATIONAL EXPERIENCE AND A NATIONAL EXISTENCE RADICALLY DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF THE WEST. IT CREATED A SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SYSTEM, A NATIONAL CHARACTER, A MENTALITY, A WAY OF LIFE UTTERLY DISSIMILAR TO THE PATTERNS EVOLVED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL EUROPE. A STATE OF NEVER ENDING WAR GAVE THEIR SOCIETY DISTINCTIVE FORM. AND YET, FOR CENTURIES, WESTERNERS HAVE WORKED TO CONVINCE THEMSELVES THAT THIS WAS A STATE LIKE ANY OTHER, A PEOPLE LIKE THEMSELVES, WITH A SET OF VALUES LIKE THEIR OWN. IT IS THIS UNIQUE STATE WHICH WE NOW CONFRONT -- A STATE AND A CULTURE SHAPED BY A THOUSAND YEARS OF CONSTANT WAR, SACRIFICE, AND THE CONVICTION THAT RUSSIA'S DESTINY IS TO ESTABLISH A NEW WORLD ORDER. .A...11041 STAIN 9 Al el - Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 WILL DURANT ONCE CALCULATED THAT IN THE LAST 3,400 YEARS OF RECORDED HISTORY, ONLY 268 HAVE SEEN NO WAR. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE TRANSCENDENT CONFLICTS IN HISTORY I DESCRIBED AT THE OUTSET WERE THOSE BETWEEN THE EMERGING CIVILIZATIONS OF THE WEST WITH ONE CONCEPT OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AN INDIVIDUAL AND THE STATE, AND THE DESPOTISMS OF THE EAST WITH A FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT VIEW. WHEN THOSE WESTERN CIVILIZATIONS GREW TIRED OR LOST THEIR WILL, OR FOR WHATEVER REASON LET DOWN THEIR GUARD, DESTRUCTION FOLLOWED. EDWARD GIBBON'S WORDS IN THE DECLINE AND FALL QE THE ROMAN EMPIRE STILL SEEM RELEVANT TODAY: "THE ROMANS WERE IGNORANT OF THE EXTENT OF THEIR DANGER AND THE NUMBER OF THEIR ENEMIES. BEYOND THE RHINE AND THE DANUBE, THE NORTHERN COUNTRIES OF EUROPE AND ASIA WERE FILLED WITH INNUMERABLE TRIBES OF HUNTERS AND SHEPHERDS, POOR, VORACIOUS AND TURBULENT; BOLD IN ARMS AND IMPATIENT TO RAVAGE THE FRUITS OF INDUSTRY .... THE ENDLESS COLUMN OF BARBARIANS PRESSED ON THE ROMAN EMPIRE WITH ACCUMULATED WEIGHT." A THOUSAND YEARS OF RUSSIAN HISTORY -- REINFORCED BY MARXISM-LENINISM -- TELL THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP THAT CONFLICT IS INEVITABLE, THAT THE CONTEST FOR SUPREMACY IS UNENDING, THAT ONE SIDE WILL WIN AND THE OTHER WILL LOSE, AND THAT DESTINY OR GOD OR THE FORCES OF HISTORY WILL ENSURE RUSSIA'S VICTORY. AND, I SUGGEST, IT WOULD BE A-E-R-4-0 DANGEROUe MISTAKE TO CONFUSE THE CURRENT SOVIET DESIRE FOR BREATHING SPACE IN L.,,fuit-tiol ORDER TO MODERNIZE WITH A DESIRE TO ABANDON THE COMPETITION. A 10 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 PRESIDENT KENNEDY SOME 25 YEARS AGO OBSERVED THAT WE WERE INVOLVED IN A LONG TWILIGHT STRUGGLE. WE HAVE NOW BEEN IN THAT STRUGGLE FOR JUST 40 YEARS. COMPARE THAT, IF YOU WILL, WITH THE CENTURIES OF STRUGGLE BETWEEN ROME AND THE BARBARIANS, THE TWO AND A HALF CENTURY STRUGGLE BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE TATAR HORDE, AND THE 200 YEAR STRUGGLE AGAINST THE OTTOMANS. IT IS A LONG STRUGGLE THAT STRETCHES BEFORE US AND THE RUSSIANS ARE BANKING ON THE FACT THAT WE LACK THE WILL TO SUSTAIN THE COMPETITION. AS A FINAL THOUGHT, THEREFORE, I WOULD SUGGEST TO YOU THAT THE CHIEF THREAT POSED BY THE SOVIET UNION IS NOT NECESSARILY IN THE VASTNESS OF ITS MILITARY FORCES -- THOUGH VAST THEY ARE, BUT IN ITS DESPOTIC IDEOLOGY AND; LIKE THE BARBARIANS FACING ROME, IN THE RELENTLESSNESS AND DIVERSITY OF THEIR ASSAULT, THE QUESTION OF INESTIMABLE HISTORICAL IMPORTANCE AS WE CONSIDER OUR NATIONAL PRIORITIES, EXAMINE OUR DEFENSE NEEDS AND OUR FOREIGN COMMITMENTS, AND STRIVE TO COUNTER A REGATHERING SOVIET POLITICAL AND MILITARY CHALLENGE IS WHETHER WE WILL REMEMBER THE ORIGIN AND NATURE OF THE CONTEST, AND THE LESSONS OF HISTORY: THAT THE WHOLE HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE AND IDEOLOGY OF OUR ADVERSARY TEACHES HIM THAT CONFLICT IS CONSTANT AND INEVITABLE; AND THAT EVENTUAL VICTORY IN THE COMPETITION IS RUSSIA'S DESTINY AND THE JUSTIFICATION FOR ITS CENTURIES OF HARDSHIP AND SACRIFICE. IT IS OUR TASK IN INTELLIGENCE TO 11 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7 POINT TO OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE UNITED STATES AS THE SOVIETS TRY TO MODERNIZE, BUT ESPECIALLY ALSO TO REMIND OUR LEADERS OF HISTORICAL REALITIES, AS UNWELCOME, UNPOPULAR, AND UNFASHIONABLE AS THEY USUALLY ARE, DESPITE OUR FONDEST HOPES TO FULFILL ISAIAH'S PROPHESY, ALL OF HUMAN HISTORY -- AND ESPECIALLY ALL OF RUSSIAN HISTORY -- POINTS TO OUR NEED AND THE NEED OF OUR CHILDREN AND THEIR CHILDREN FOR SWORDS AS WELL AS PLOWSHARES. IT IS NOT A FORECAST OF AN ALTOGETHER FELCITOUS FUTURE -- BUT IT IS A FORECAST OF A FREE ONE. AND AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE MUST AND WILL PLAY A CENTRAL ROLE IN KEEPING IT FREE. 12 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/03/01: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700860003-7