NATIONAL SECURITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE AMERICAN BANKERS ASSOCIATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 14, 2013
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: January 27, 1988
• Content Type: MISC

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NATIONAL SECURITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE
AMERICAN BANKERS ASSOCIATION
27 JANUARY 1988
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: CHALLENGE FOR THE FUTURE
BY ROBERT M. GATES
DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN. THIS MORNING I WILL SHARE WITH YOU
HOW WE ASSESS THE SPREAD OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, A WAR
WITHOUT BORDERS CONDUCTED AGAINST AN ENEMY THAT IS HARD TO FIND
AND HARDER STILL TO DEFEND AGAINST.
THE CANCER OF TERRORISM IS HERE TO STAY AND, INDEED, IS
SPREADING. ELIMINA FIGURES SHOW NT THE T AL NUMBER OF
INC NTS WORLD? IDE GREW FOM 774 IN 19 TO 8149\ 1987 1987 -- AN
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NCREASN\MAINLY REFL TING A DR WIC RISE TERROR? IN
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ASA THE UNITED STATES AND ITS FRIENDS AND ALLIES CONTINUE TO
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BE THE PRIMARY TARGETS. THE SAD TOLL OF KILLED AND INJURED
GROWS MONTH BY MONTH.
WHAT THE TERRORIST DOES IS KILL, MAIM, KIDNAP, TORTURE.
HIS VICTIMS MAY BE CHILDREN IN THE SCHOOLROOM, INNOCENT
TRAVELERS ON AIRPLANES, BUSINESSMEN RETURNING HOME FROM WORK,
POLITICAL LEADERS, DIPLOMATS, SOLDIERS, CIVILIANS ANYWHERE.
THE TERRORIST'S VICTIMS MAY HAVE NO PARTICULAR POLITICAL
IDENTITY; OR THEY MAY BE POLITICAL SYMBOLS, LIKE ALDO MORO OR
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-- PERHAPS -- POPE JOHN PAUL II. THEY MAY BE KIDNAPPED AND
HELD FOR RANSOM, MAIMED OR SIMPLY BLOWN TO BITS. ONE DEFINING
CHARACTERISTIC OF THE TERRORIST IS HIS CHOICE OF METHOD: THE
TERRORIST CHOOSES VIOLENCE AS THE INSTRUMENT OF FIRST RESORT.
LET ME TALK FIRST ABOUT TERRORISM WITH ITS ROOTS IN THE
MIDDLE EAST, WHICH CONTINUES TO REPRESENT THE GRAVEST DANGER TO
THE UNITED STATES. THE MAJORITY OF U.S. CASUALTIES HAVE
OCCURRED IN INCIDENTS INVOLVING MIDDLE EASTERNERS. MIDDLE
EASTERN BOMBS HAVE TENDED TO BE LARGER, MORE SOPHISTICATED, AND
MORE LETHAL. MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORISTS GENERALLY ARE MORE
PROFESSIONAL AND PROFICIENT IN CLANDESTINE OPERATIONS THAN
OTHERS, AND THUS MORE DIFFICULT TO DETECT AND STOP. MOST
IMPORTANT, IT IS MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORISM THAT HAS HAD, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE, THE MOST SEVERE IMPACT ON U.S. FOREIGN
POLICY CONCERNS.
LET ME ,Z4,1k OUTLINE FOR YOU SOME OF OUR CONCERNS ABOUT THE
FUTURE OF MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORISM:
QADHAFI IS STIRRING ONCE AGAIN AFTER THE SHOCKS OF
1986. LIBYA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR MURDERING SEVERAL
LIBYAN DISSIDENTS IN EUROPE IN 1987, AND ITS DIPLOMATS
WERE EXPELLED FROM COUNTRIES THERE FOR PLANNING ACTS OF
TERRORISM. IN OCTOBER FRENCH AUTHORITIES INTERCEPTED A
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SHIP CALLED EKSUND II OFF THE COAST OF FRANCE. THE
SHIP ORIGINATED IN LIBYA, HAD SEVERAL KNOWN PROVISIONAL
IRISH REPUBLICAN ARMY MEMBERS ON BOARD, AND CARRIED A
HUGE CARGO OF MISSILES, HEAVY MACHINE GUNS, ASSAULT
RIFLES, AMMUNITION, AND EXPLOSIVES. LIBYA ALSO IS
ATTEMPTING TO STIR UP VIOLENCE AGAINST THE WEST BY
ENCOURAGING LOCAL DISSIDENTS IN SUCH DISPARATE AREAS AS
THE CARIBBEAN, AFRICA, AND THE SOUTH PACIFIC.
IF WE WERE TO BECOME EMBROILED IN A MILITARY
CONFRONTATION WITH IRAN, WE BELIEVE IT LIKELY THAT
TEHRAN WOULD STRIKE BACK WITH TERROR, NOT ONLY IN
COUNTRIES IN THE GULF BUT ALSO IN EUROPE AND PERHAPS
EVEN IN THE UNITED STATES. WE KNOW THERE ARE NETWORKS
OF EXTREMISTS FROM VARIOUS COUNTRIES IN THE MUSLIM
WORLD IN PLACE IN CITIES IN EUROPE AND ELSEWHERE THAT
COULD BE USED BY IRAN TO SUPPORT TERRORIST ATTACKS
AGAINST U.S. TARGETS. AMONG IRANIAN OR
IRANIAN?SPONSORED TERRORIST ACTIVITIES
DURING 1987 WERE
ATTACKS AGAINST SAUDI, KUWAITI, AND OTHER MODERATE ARAB
GULF STATES, THE PROBABLE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE
KIDNAPPING IN LEBANON OF THE US JOURNALIST CHARLES
GLASS, SUPPORT FOR (ACCORDING TO THE FRENCH) A CELL OF
NORTH AFRICAN TERRORISTS ARRESTED IN MARCH 1987, AND
THE START WE BELIEVE, OF A WORLD?WIDE SEARCH TO
IDENTIFY POTENTIAL U.S. TARGETS FOR TERRORIST ATTACKS.
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IRAN SUPPORTS AND BENEFITS FROM THE CONTINUING
DETENTION OF AMERICAN AND OTHER WESTERN HOSTAGES IN
LEBANON.
ALTHOUGH SYRIA TRIED TO DEMONSTRATE ITS GOOD FAITH BY
OUSTING THE ABU NIDAL ORGANIZATION FROM ITS DAMASCUS
HEADQUARTERS IN JUNE 1987, IT HAS NOT COMPLETELY
SEVERED ITS TIES TO TERRORIST GROUPS. ABU NIDAL CAMPS
STILL EXIST IN PARTS OF LEBANON CONTROLLED BY SYRIAN
FORCES, AND SYRIA CONTINUES TO PLAY HOST TO THE
ANTI?TURKISH ARMENIAN SECRET ARMY FOR THE LIBERATION OF
ARMENIA AND THE KURDISH WORKER'S PARTY. SYRIAN TROOPS
CONTROL THE BEIRUT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, BUT CLOSE
THEIR EYES TO THE TRAVEL OF KNOWN TERRORISTS TO AND
FROM LEBANON.
AS I HAVE SUGGESTED, INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM BY MIDDLE
EASTERN GROUPS OWES MUCH TO STATE SPONSORSHIP -- PARTICULARLY
BY IRAN, LIBYA, AND UNTIL VERY RECENTLY SYRIA. THESE STATES
USE TERRORISM AND SUPPORT TO INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST GROUPS AS
INSTRUMENTS OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICY. THESE STATES
TRAIN, FINANCE, AND ARM NUMEROUS DISSIDENT AND TERRORIST
GROUPS. THEY SEND AGENTS AND SURROGATES ON MISSIONS AROUND THE
WORLD USING TERROR TO ATTACK OPPONENTS AND THE PERSONNEL AND
INSTALLATIONS OF THE US AND PRO?WESTERN ARAB STATES. THEY USE
DIPLOMATIC AND CULTURAL MISSIONS TO SUPPORT TERRORISTS. WE
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KNOW, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT SEVERAL SENIOR OFFICIALS OF THE IRANIAN
GOVERNMENT ARE DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN TERRORIST ACTIVITY. LIBYA
PROVIDES AID AND COMFORT TO THE NOTORIOUS PALESTINIAN TERRORIST
ABU NIDAL WHOSE FOLLOWERS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEPTEMBER
1986
MASSACRES IN KARACHI AND ISTANBUL.
I'D LIKE TO TURN NOW TO ASIA -- A REGION WHICH HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE PAST BUT WHICH IS NOW A MAJOR GROWTH
AREA:
THE BLOODIEST INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST ATTACK IN THE
WORLD IN 1987 INVOLVED THE DOWNING OF THE SOUTH KOREAN
AIRLINER ON 29 NOVEMBER WHILE IT WAS EN ROUTE FROM ABU
DHABI TO BANGKOK. ALL 115 PASSENGERS AND THE CREW WERE
KILLED. BAHRAIN AUTHORITIES ARRESTED TWO PERSONS IN
CONNECTION WITH THE BOMBING: A MALE WHO COMMITTED
SUICIDE AS HE WAS ABOUT TO BE INTERROGATED, AND A YOUNG
WOMAN WHO WAS DEPORTED TO SEOUL. THERE THE WOMAN
CONFESSED TO BEING A NORTH KOREAN SECRET AGENT, AND
ADMITTED THAT SHE AND HER MALE COMPANION HAD PLACED A
BOMB ON BOARD THE AIRLINER. THIS DASTARDLY ACT WAS
COMMITTED WITH THE FULL KNOWLEDGE OF THE TOP LEADERSHIP
IN PYONGYANG.
-- TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN HAS INCREASED ALARMINGLY. THE
NUMBER OF INCIDENTS THERE LEAPT FROM 47 IN 1986 TO 144
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IN 1987. MOST WERE PERPETRATED BY THE AGHANISTAN
INTELLIGENCE SERVICE, WHICH IS CLOSELY CONTROLLED BY
THE SOVIET KGB, AND ARE PART OF AN ONGOING ATTEMPT TO
DETER THE PAKISTAN GOVERNMENT FROM SUPPORTING THE
MUJAHADEEN FREEDOM FIGHTERS IN AFGHANISTAN. THE TERROR
SPREAD FROM THE IMMEDIATE BORDER AREA TO THE MAJOR
POPULATION CENTERS OF LAHORE, RAWALPINDI, ISLAMABAD,
AND KARACHI. THE PREFERRED INSTRUMENT WAS THE CAR
BOMB, SET OFF NEAR CROWDED SHOPPING AREAS. IN ONE
SAVAGE BOMBING IN KARACHI LAST JULY, FOR EXAMPLE, TWO
CAR BOMBS WENT OFF NEAR A MARKET, KILLING MORE THAN
SEVENTY PEOPLE AND WOUNDING CLOSE TO TWO HUNDRED.
COMMUNIST INSURGENTS IN THE PHILIPPINES SEEM TO HAVE
EXPANDED THEIR ACTIVITIES FROM THE COUNTRYSIDE TO
TERRORISM IN THE CITIES. THREE US SERVICEMEN WERE
MURDERED BY COMMUNIST TERRORISTS -- THE SO?CALLED
"SPARROW SQUADS" -- IN SEPTEMBER 1987 NEAR CLARK AIR
FORCE BASE. WE MUST NOW BE PREPARED FOR COMMUNIST
ATTACKS ON OTHER US GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE SECTOR
TARGETS IN THAT COUNTRY.
WE SEE SIGNS THAT THE JAPANESE RED ARMY (JRA) IS MAKING
A COME?BACK AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF DORMANCY. CALLING
ITSELF THE ANTI?IMPERIALIST INTERNATIONAL BRIGADE, WE
BELIEVE THAT THE JRA HAS CARRIED OUT A SERIES OF
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ATTACKS -- LARGELY INEFFECTIVE SO FAR -- AGAINST
SEVERAL EMBASSIES, INCLUDING OUR OWN, IN JAKARTA, ROME,
AND MADRID OVER THE PAST EIGHTEEN MONTHS. MOST
RECENTLY, IN NOVEMBER 1987, THE JAPANESE POLICE
ARRESTED A MAJOR JRA TERRORIST LEADER AT TOKYO AIRPORT
EN ROUTE TO SEOUL. A JAPANESE POLICE SPOKESMAN
ANNOUNCED THAT EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE JRA IS
"PLANNING A NEW ROUND OF TERRORISM, INCLUDING HIJACKING
OR KIDNAPPING WELL?KNOWN PERSONS TO HOLD AS HOSTAGES
UNTIL MARUOKA (THEIR LEADER) IS FREED" FROM PRISON IN
TOKYO.
IN THIS LONG, BUT FAR FROM INCLUSIVE, LITANY OF TERRORIST
ACTIVITIES AND CONCERNS WE MUST NOT IGNORE THE GROWTH OF
TERRORISM TO OUR SOUTH IN LATIN AMERICA. ALTHOUGH THE TOTAL
NUMBER OF INCIDENTS DROPPED FROM 160 IN 1986 TO AROUND 100 IN
1987, US DIPLOMATS AND BUSINESSES REMAIN PRIME TARGETS AND
THERE IS EVERY INDICATION THAT LATIN AMERICAN TERRORISM WILL
SPREAD. AS IN THE PAST TWO YEARS PERU, COLOMBIA, AND CHILE
INCURRED THE GREATEST NUMBER AND THE MOST SERIOUS TYPES OF
TERRORIST ATTACKS. IN PERU THE MAOIST, XENOPHOBIC SENDERO
LUMINOSO INSURGENT GROUP HAS EXPANDED ITS OPERATIONS TO INCLUDE
URBAN TERRORISM; SOME OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT THERE MAY BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED SENDERO LUMINOSO TERRORISTAAT WORK IN LIMA
ALONE. IN ADDITION TO BOMBINGS AND ARSON, IN 1987 SENDERO
LUMINOSO FOR THE FIRST TIME CARRIED OUT PREMEDITATED
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ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS ON FOREIGN BUSINESSMEN AND DIPLOMATS.
THIS SITUATION IS EXACERBATED BY THE ACTIVITIES OF ANOTHER
TERRORIST GROUP, THE TUPAC AMARU REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT, WHICH
IS A MORE TRADITIONAL TERRORIST GROUP THAT DIRECTS MOST OF ITS
ATTACKS AGAINST FOREIGN TARGETS, ESPECIALLY THE UNITED STATES.
OF CONCERN TO AMERICAN TOURISTS IS THE FACT THAT PERUVIAN
TERRORISTS HAVE DIRECTED THEIR VIOLENCE AGAINST TRAVELERS IN
TOURIST AREAS, OBVIOUSLY IN AN ATTEMPT TO DISRUPT THE TOURIST
INDUSTRY. TERRORIST ATTACKS IN COLOMBIA WERE DIRECTED MAINLY
AT MULTINATIONAL OIL COMPANIES -- MOST WITH U.S. AFFILIATIONS.
THE CHIEF CULPRIT IS THE NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY, WHICH
CONTINUES ITS CAMPAIGN OF TRYING TO UNDERMINE THE ECONOMY BY
DRIVING OUT FOREIGN BUSINESSES. OTHER INSURGENT GROUPS IN
COLOMBIA ARE TRYING TO COMBINE THEMSELVES IN A COORDINATED
FRONT -- THE SO?CALLED SIMON BOLIVAR GUERRILLA COORDINATOR --
AND AS SUCH ARE FOCUSING THEIR EFFORTS MORE ON POLITICAL
AGITATION AND INSURGENT ATTACKS THAN ON TERRORISM AGAINST US
TARGETS.
LEFTWING TERRORIST GROUPS IN WESTERN EUROPE ALSO REMAIN
DANGEROUS -- IF NOT SO MUCH TO US AS TO OUR ALLIES -- EVEN
THOUGH SUCCESSFUL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE EFFORTS BY
OUR EUROPEAN FRIENDS HAVE EITHER DECIMATED OR KEPT ON THE RUN
GROUPS LIKE THE FRENCH DIRECT ACTION, THE GERMAN RED ARMY
FACTION, AND THE BELGIAN COMMUNIST COMBATTANT CELLS. ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY BE QUIESCENT FOR THE MOMENT THERE IS ALWAYS THE
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POSSIBILITY THAT THESE GROUPS, HYDRA?HEADED, COULD REVIVE THEIR
CAMPAIGN OF TERRORISM AGAINST US AND NATO TARGETS, AS THEY DID
IN 1985. IE BASQUE ETA AND TE PROVISIONAL RISH REPUBLICAN
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ARMS-- THE LATER RESPONSIBLE F R THE BLOODY A TACK ON
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INNOC T CIVILIANS ATTENDING A VETERAN'S DAY PARA7 AT THE TOWN
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Nf ENNIS ILLEN -- CO TINUE ON THEIR MU,RDEROUS WAY.N_EFTWING
GI4EEK TERRO IST GROUPS A -E\FILL ACTIVL THEY CARRI I OUT TWO
ATTA KS AGAIN"?.S. TARGETNIN 1987, CLEA Y INTENDIN , BUT
LUCKIL FAILING, TO PRODUCE LARG NUMBERS OF S CASUALTI IN
THEIR CA PAIGN TO ID GREECE OF US ASES
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LET ME NOW TURN TO THE SOVIET CONNECTION. LOOMING IN THE
BACKGROUND OF MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORISM -- AND TERRORISM
ELSEWHERE AS WELL -- ARE THE SOVIET UNION AND THE STATES OF
EASTERN EUROPE. LET THERE BE NO MISTAKE OR AMBIGUITY ABOUT
IT: THE SOVIET UNION SUPPORTS TERRORISM. IT HAS DIRECTLY AND
INDIRECTLY TRAINED, FUNDED, ARMED AND EVEN OPERATIONALLY
ASSISTED TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS FATAH, ABU NIDAL AND
OTHERS. NEARLY EVERY TERRORIST GROUP IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND
MANY OTHERS ELSEWHERE HAVE LINKS TO THE USSR OR ONE OF ITS
CLIENTS.
THE SOVIETS SUPPORT INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IN A NUMBER OF
WAYS:
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THE SOVIETS PROVIDE POLITICAL BACKING, FUNDING, AND IN
SOME CASES ARMS AND MILITARY TRAINING TO GROUPS OR
STATES SUCH AS LIBYA THAT PARTICIPATE IN OR ARE LINKED
TO TERRORISTS.
-- THE SOVIETS HAVE AT LEAST INDIRECTLY GIVEN MATERIAL
SUPPORT TO GROUPS THAT HAVE COMMITTED TERRORIST ACTS IN
THE MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA, AND LATIN AMERICA.
THE SOVIETS HAVE TRAINED A NUMBER OF PERSONNEL LINKED
TO OR BELONGING TO NATIONAL LIBERATION GROUPS, AND THEY
OPENLY SUPPLY ARMS TO NUMEROUS GOVERNMENTS AND GROUPS
THAT CONDUCT TERRORIST ACTIVITIES. LIBYA IS A LEADING
EXAMPLE.
THE SOVIETS SUPPORT CERTAIN PALESTINIAN GROUPS, EAST
EUROPEAN STATES, SOUTH YEMEN, AND CUBA, ALL OF WHOM
SUPPORT TERRORIST GROUPS OR GROUPS THAT COMMIT
TERRORIST ACTS. BULGARIA'S STATE TRADING ORGANIZATION
KINTEX -- WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY A STATE SMUGGLING
OPERATION -- AND CZECHOSLOVAKIA'S COMPARABLE
ORGANIZATION OMNIPOL ARE AMONG THE MOST PROMINENT
COMPANIES WHOSE WEAPONS EVENTUALLY HAVE APPEARED IN
TERRORIST HANDS.
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THE EAST EUROPEANS, ALMOST CERTAINLY WITH SOVIET
KNOWLEDGE AND SUPPORT, PROVIDE SAFEHAVEN, TRANSIT
PRIVILEGES AND MOVEMENT OF WEAPONS AND BOMBS FOR
TERRORISTS.
IT IS THIS UMBRELLA OF SOVIET SUPPORT, AND THE ASSOCIATED
ROLE OF SOVIET CLIENTS SUCH AS SYRIA, LIBYA, VIETNAM AND
NICARAGUA THAT ALLOWS LARGE SCALE TERRORIST OPERATIONS TO
CONTINUE. AND, FINALLY, IN ADDITION TO THEIR SUPPORT OF THESE
GROUPS, THE SOVIETS SO FAR HAVE REFUSED TO PLAY ANY SIGNIFICANT
ROLE IN INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO CURTAIL TERRORISM.
IT HAS NOT BEEN LOST ON THE SOVIETS THAT THE PRACTITIONERS
OF TERRORISM WHO MAKE SPECTACULAR STRIKES AGAINST THE WEST BY
BENDING OR REDEFINING THE RULES -- AS IN LEBANON -- ARE FINDING
WAYS PAST THE WEST'S DEFENSES, BOTH PHYSICAL AND
PSYCHOLOGICAL. THIS HAS ALLURE -- AND IS A GOOD LINE OF ATTACK
-- FOR MOSCOW IN A WORLD WHEN NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL MILITARY
BALANCES CHANGE SLOWLY AND WHERE SOVIET ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND
IDEOLOGICAL POWER IS STUNTED. SUCH AN ATTITUDE TOWARD
TERRORISM IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE FUNDAMENTAL ROLE THAT
TERRORISM PLAYED IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SOVIET POWER AND THE
CONDUCT OF ITS POLICY. AS NOTED IN A RECENT BOOK, "UTOPIA IN
POWER," ONE OF THOSE WHO LED THE REVOLUTION, TROTSKY, SAID THAT
THE REVOLUTION "KILLS INDIVIDUALS AND INTIMIDATES THOUSANDS" --
IT IS NECESSARY TO KILL SOME IN ORDER TO SHATTER THE WILL OF
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THE REST. NO ONE IN THE INTERVENING 65 YEARS HAS FOUND A
BETTER STATEMENT OF THE PURPOSE OF TERROR AT HOME OR ABROAD.
LET ME NOW TURN TO THE PROBLEMS OF US INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS
AND COUNTERTERRORISM POLICYMAKERS AS THEY SEEK TO TACKLE THE
PROBLEM OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM. IN ORDER TO PREVENT
TERRORIST PLANS OR DISRUPT THEIR ACTIVITIES WE NEED INFORMATION
ABOUT THEM, BUT THE VERY NATURE OF TERRORIST GROUPS AND THEIR
ACTIVITIES MAKES THIS TASK EXTREMELY COMPLICATED.
TERRORIST GROUPS ARE VERY SMALL. WE ESTIMATE THAT MANY
NUMBER FEWER THAN TWO DOZEN HARD CORE MEMBERS. ALTHOUGH SUCH
GROUPS MAY HAVE MANY MORE SYMPATHIZERS AND SUPPORTERS, THOSE
PERSONS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPECTUCULAR BOMBINGS OR
ASSASSINATIONS ARE RELATIVELY FEW AND WELL?CONCEALED. THEY
SOMETIMES USE UNWITTING PERSONS -- SUCH AS THE WOMAN CAUGHT
TRYING TO BOARD AN EL AL AIRLINER WITH A BOMB IN HER LUGGAGE AT
THE LONDON AIRPORT IN THE SPRING OF 1986. INCREASINGLY WE FIND
THAT PEOPLE WHO COME TOGETHER TO CONDUCT AN ATTACK WERE NOT
KNOWN TO EACH OTHER PREVIOUSLY AND THAT ONLY THE LEADER KNOWS
ALL THE DETAILS OF THE ARRANGEMENTS AND PARTICIPANTS. AS A
RESULT EVEN WHEN WE CAPTURE ONE OF THE PERPETRATORS, HE MAY BE
UNABLE TO TELL US MUCH ABOUT THE GROUP BEHIND THE ATTACK.
THE CENTRAL CORE OF TERRORIST GROUPS IS TIGHTLY KNIT AND
DIFFICULT TO PENETRATE. MIDDLE EASTERN GROUPS FREQUENTLY HAVE
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KINSHIP, VILLAGE, OR TRIBAL LINKS; WHEREAS WEST EUROPEAN GROUPS
TEND TO REPRESENT PEOPLE WITH INTELLECTUAL AND PERSONAL TIES
DATING FROM STUDENT DAYS. IN SHORT, THE KEY MEMBERS OF THE
TERRORIST GROUP KNOW EACH OTHER VERY WELL AND OUTSIDERS WOULD
HAVE DIFFICULTY ESTABLISHING THEIR BONA FIDES, MAKING
PENETRATION OF THE CORE GROUP BY POLICE OR INTELLIGENCE AGENTS
VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE.
THE OPERATING LIFE OF ANY SINGLE GROUP OF TERRORISTS IS
OFTEN NO MORE THAN A FEW YEARS. LIKEWISE THE TYPICAL TERRORIST
LEADER HAS A RELATIVELY SHORT BUSINESS LIFE, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
EXCEPTIONS WHO HAVE BEEN PLYING THEIR TRADE FOR SEVERAL YEARS.
THIS INTENSIFIES THE PRESSURE ON INTELLIGENCE COLLECTORS AND
ANALYSTS TO QUICKLY DETERMINE THE ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE OF
GROUPS SO PROMPT ACTION CAN BE TAKEN AGAINST THEM.
TERRORIST GROUPS ARE NOT STATIONARY, THAT IS THEY SELDOM
OPERATE FROM FIXED FACILITIES. TERRORISTS MAY LEARN WEAPONS
HANDLING AND BOMB BUILDING AT AN INSURGENT CAMP OR OTHER SUCH
FACILITY, BUT THEY DON'T NEED TO. A HOTEL ROOM, ATTIC, OR
BASEMENT WOULD DO EQUALLY WELL FOR MOST OF THE TRAINING THEY
NEED. THUS JUST BECAUSE WE LEARN WHERE THE "BOMB FACTORY" WAS
FOR THE LAST ATTACK DOES NOT MEAN WE HAVE A LEAD ON WHERE IT
WILL BE FOR THE NEXT ONE.
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TERRORISTS FREQUENTLY USE RUDIMENTARY, BUT HIGHLY SECURE,
OPERATING AND COMMUNICATIONS METHODS. THEY DEPEND ON COURIERS
AND COMMERCIAL TELEPHONES. TERRORIST EQUIPMENT AND WEAPONS ARE
OFTEN STOLEN FROM MILITARY AND POLICE STORES OR ELSE PURCHASED
ON THE FLOURISHING GRAY ARMS MARKET. EVEN RELATIVELY
SOPHISTICATED BOMBS CAN BE MANUFACTURED FROM COMPONENTS EASILY
PURCHASED FROM A HARDWARE STORE OR STOLEN FROM A COMMERCIAL
CONSTRUCTION COMPANY. ONE DISTINCTION IS WORTH NOTING HERE,
EUROPEAN TERRORISTS BY AND LARGE SUPPLY THEMSELVES. MIDDLE
EASTERN TERRORISTS ARE USUALLY SUPPLIED BY THEIR FRIENDS,
INCLUDING THE SOVIET BLOC.
TERRORISTS ARE OPPORTUNISTS AND QUICK TO COPY WHAT WORKS
POLITICALLY OR TECHNICALLY. A RECENT EXAMPLE IS THE USE OF A
HANG?GLIDER BY PALESTINIAN TERRORISTS TO ATTACK AN ISRAELI
MILITARY CAMP. THIS MAKES IT HARD TO SEPARATE COPYCAT ATTACKS
FROM A CAMPAIGN THAT IS BASED ON COOPERATION OR LINKS BETWEEN
GROUPS.
HOW DO WE COPE WITH THESE SMALL BANDS OF HIGHLY TRAINED
PEOPLE, MOST OF THEM FANATICS, SOME READY TO GIVE UP LIFE
ITSELF TO DO THEIR INCREASINGLY SOPHISTICATED EVIL DEEDS?
FIRST WE ARE OBVIOUSLY ACQUIRING AS MUCH INFORMATIONAWE CAN
ABOUT TERRORIST GROUPS INCLUDING THEIR MODUS OPERANDI,
ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, PERSONNEL, SUPPORT, FINANCIAL, AND
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COMMUNICATIONS ARRANGEMENTS, AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS WITH OTHER
GROUPS OR STATE SPONSORS. MUCH OF THIS IS PURE BASIC RESEARCH,
COMPILING LARGE DATABASES, AND ATTEMPTING TO FILL IN THE GAPS.
IT IS NOT VERY GLAMOROUS AND THE PEOPLE WHO DO IT DO NOT
CAPTURE THE HEADLINES, BUT IT IS THE FOUNDATION UPON WHICH THE
U.S. COUNTERTERRORIST EFFORT RESTS. CONTINUING COLLECTION AND
ANALYSIS ENABLES US TO IMPROVE OUR ABILITY TO DETECT TRENDS IN
TERRORIST OPERATIONS AND UPGRADE SECURITY IN AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY AT RISK. CONTINUING RESEARCH ALLOWS US TO
DETERMINE THE VULNERABILITIES OF TERRORIST GROUPS AND FORMULATE
PLANS FOR DISRUPTING THEIR ACTIVITIES.
THIS IS NOT A PROBLEM FOR THE UNITED STATES ALONE, BUT A
TASK IN WHICH THE CIVILIZED NATIONS OF THE WORLD MUST
COOPERATE. WITH INCREASING TEMPO AND EFFECTIVENESS WE ARE
DEVELOPING A WORLDWIDE COUNTERTERRORIST NETWORK MADE UP OF THE
INTELLIGENCE, SECURITY, AND POLICE ORGANIZATIONS OF THE
THREATENED NATIONS. THEY EXCHANGE INTELLIGENCE, SHARE DATA
BANKS, WORK TOGETHER OPERATIONALLY, PROVIDE TRAINING AND
TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES TO THE LESS ADVANCED OF THEIR NUMBER,
UNDERTAKE SURVEILLANCE AND OTHER INTELLIGENCE ASSIGNMENTS FOR
EACH OTHER, REPORT THEIR FINDINGS, TRANSMIT ALERTS AND WARNINGS.
THE FACT THAT THERE HAS BEEN A LULL IN MAJOR "SPECTACULARS"
CARRIED OUT BY TERRORISTS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST FOR ALMOST
EIGHTEEN MONTHS NOW IS NOT WITHOUT GOOD REASON. FIRST, WE
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OURSELVES, IN COLLABORATION WITH OUR EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES, HAVE
HAD SOME SUCCESS IN FORCING TERRORIST GROUPS OFF BALANCE. ON
SEVERAL OCCASIONS OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, OUR WARNING AND
DETAILED INTELLIGENCE HAS DIRECTLY ASSISTED FOREIGN AUTHORITIES
IN CAPTURING TERRORISTS. THERE ARE MANY MORE TERRORISTS IN
PRISON IN THE UNITED STATES, WESTERN EUROPE, AND ELSEWHERE THAN
THERE WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO. SECOND, THE US AND ITS
ALLIES HAVE EXPENDED A VAST AMOUNT OF RESOURCES ON BETTER
SECURITY, INCLUDING THE HARDENING OF POTENTIAL TARGETS. AND
THIRD, FOR SEVERAL REASONS LIBYA AND SYRIA HAVE HAD TO BACK
AWAY FROM THEIR PREVIOUS CLOSE INVOLVEMENT IN SUPPORTING
TERRORISM, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. LIBYA, FOR EXAMPLE, WAS
GRAVELY SHAKEN BY OUR AIR?RAIDS IN APRIL 1986, AN EVENT WHICH
WAS FOLLOWED BY THE EXPULSION FROM VARIOUS COUNTRIES IN EUROPE
OF OVER A HUNDRED LIBYAN DIPLOMATS KNOWN TO BE SUPPORTING
TERRORISM. SYRIA BECAME DIPLOMATICALLY ISOLATED BECAUSE OF
EVIDENCE PRODUCED IN COURT TRIALS IN EUROPE CLEARLY SHOWING ITS
COMPLICITY IN ACTS OF TERROR, INCLUDING AN ATTEMPT AGAINST AN
EL AL AIRLINER IN LONDON IN 1986. AT THE SAME TIME SYRIA'S
ECONOMY SUFFERED A SERIOUS DOWNTURN, LEADING ITS GOVERNMENT TO
FORESWEAR SUPPORTING TERRORISM IN ORDER TO GET BACK INTO THE
GOOD GRACES OF THE EUROPEANS AND SO GET NEW ECONOMIC CREDITS.
IN WASHINGTON, WE HAVE MADE\VERY GOOD PROGRESS IN
DEVELOPING A SYSTEM OF VERY RAPID COMMUNICATIONS TO GATHER
ASSESSMENTS, HAVE REPORTS TESTED BY INTELLIGENCE EXPERTS
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THROUGHOUT OUR GOVERNMENT AND ELSEWHERE, AND PASS CONCLUSIONS
QUICKLY TO THE POINT OF THE THREAT -- WHETHER IN THE UNITED
STATES OR OVERSEAS.
WE OBVIOUSLY NEED AN INTERNATIONAL EFFORT ALONG THE SAME
LINES, HOWEVER, FOR THE UNITED STATES IS ONLY ONE OF AN
INCREASING NUMBER OF TARGETS FOR TERRORISTS. WE ALSO NEED MORE
VIGOROUS ACTION BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IN GENERAL IF WE
ARE TO CONTAIN THE TERRORIST CHALLENGE. WESTERN NATIONS HAVE
ON THE WHOLE BEEN WEAK IN APPLYING ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND
DIPLOMATIC MEASURES TO CHECK TERRORISM. TOO OFTEN COUNTRIES
ARE INHIBITED BY FEAR OF LOSING COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITIES OR OF
PROVOKING FURTHER TERRORISM. THERE IS A COMMON, BUT BADLY
MISTAKEN, BELIEF ON THE PART OF SOME OF OUR ALLIES AND FRIENDS
THAT APPEASEMENT WILL LEAD TO SAFETY. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH
TERRORIST HIJACKING SHOWS THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CAN
MOVE IN CONCERT AND THAT WHEN IT DOES IT CAN BE EFFECTIVE.
THE TERRORIST DEPENDS UPON TWO FACTORS FOR SUCCESS IN
CONDUCTING HIS WAR ON THE MIND. THE FIRST, AND MOST IMPORTANT
OF THESE, IS COVERAGE BY THE MEDIA. IN THIS DECADE MORE PEOPLE
CAN BE ADDRESSED BY NEWSPAPER, TELEVISION, RADIO, AND MAGAZINES
THAN EVER BEFORE IN HISTORY. WHAT IS MORE, THE MEDIA IS SO
EFFECTIVE THAT MILLIONS OF PEOPLE MAY LEARN OF A TERRORIST
ATTACK THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE HALF A WORLD AWAY IN A MATTER OF
MINUTES -- OR AT MOST, HOURS. IT IS NO ACCIDENT THAT THE VAST
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BULK OF THE MOST HEINOUS TERRORIST MURDERS, BOMBINGS AND
HIJACKINGS TAKE PLACE -- NOT IN ISOLATED VILLAGES IN AFRICA OR
AMONG REMOTE ASIAN TRIBESMEN -- BUT IN CITIES THAT POSSESS
EXCELLENT COMMUNICATION LINKS WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD. THE
TERRORIST HOPES THAT HIS DEEDS WILL BE BANNERED ON THE SIX
O'CLOCK NEWS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD.
THE SECOND FACTOR THAT AIDS TERRORISTS IN THEIR CAMPAIGN IS
THE NATURE OF MODERN URBAN SOCIETY. THE CONCENTRATION OF
POPULATION OFFERS ANONYMITY TO THE TERRORIST. WEAPONS AND
MONEY CAN BE OBTAINED THROUGH AN INFINITE NUMBER OF CHANNELS,
THUS PRESERVING THE TERRORIST'S OPERATIONAL SECURITY. THE
VARIETY OF EFFICIENCY OF TRANSPORTATION ENHANCES THE
TERRORIST'S MOBILITY. MOREOVER, INDUSTRIALIZED SOCIETIES HAVE
MORE VULNERABLE HIGH?VALUE TARGETS -- SUCH AS COMPUTER CENTERS,
AIRLINES, FACTORIES, SHOPPING ARCADES, AND EVEN APARTMENT
COMPLEXES. WESTERN DEMOCRACIES BY THEIR VERY NATURE ARE
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO TERRORIST ATTACKS.
I HAVE SPOKEN ABOUT PREVENTIVE, COOPERATIVE, PROTECTIVE AND
INVESTIGATIVE MEASURES. WHAT ABOUT THE TERRORIST HIMSELF? WE
MUST TAKE VIGOROUS ACTION TO ISOLATE HIM FROM HIS TARGET --
ATTACKING THE PUBLIC MIND. THAT IS TO SAY WE MUST DEFEAT THE
TERRORISTS' STRATEGY OF MANIPULATING PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS. WE
MUST DENY THE TERRORIST THE FRUIT OF HIS LABORS -- NAMELY, THE
ABILITY TO EXPLOIT THE MEDIA TO INSTILL IN THE PUBLIC FEELINGS
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OF UNCERTAINTY AND FEAR. THE MEDIA ITSELF MUST PLAY THE
LEADING ROLE IN THIS EFFORT BY TREATING NEWS OF TERRORIST
INCIDENTS IN A MORE RESERVED FASHION, AND BY PROVIDING STRONG
EDITORIALS THAT DISCREDIT THE TERRORISTS' ACTIONS.
IN ADDITION WE SHOULD STRIVE TO INSTILL IN THE TERRORIST
THOSE SAME PERVASIVE FEELINGS OF FEAR THAT HE SEEKS TO INSTILL
IN THE PUBLIC -- THE FEELINGS OF CONSTANTLY BEING THE HUNTED,
RATHER THAN THE HUNTER. THE TERRORIST MUST AT ALL TIMES HAVE
THE IMPRESSION THAT HIS MOVEMENTS ARE KNOWN, HIS PLANS
UNDERSTOOD, AND HIS CELLS PENETRATED. WE CAN DO THIS, AS I
MENTIONED EARLIER, BY IMPROVING COORDINATION OF INTELLIGENCE,
POLICE AND COUNTERTERRORIST UNITS, AND ESPECIALLY BY MOBILIZING
MEDIA SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN THE COURAGE OF THE PUBLIC AND TO
CONVINCE THE TERRORIST THAT HIS ACTIONS ARE REPUDIATED BY THE
PUBLIC.
IF WE CAN DO THIS, THE TERRORIST WILL WATCH IN FRUSTRATION
AS HIS POWER OVER THE MEDIA DRIES UP AND, WITH IT, HIS POWER TO
ASSAULT THE MIND. IF CUT OFF FROM HIS SPONSORS, THE TERRORIST
WILL WATCH THE GROWING APPREHENSION AS HE LEARNS THAT THE COSTS
AND RISK OF HIS OPERATIONS SKYROCKET WHILE THE IMPACT OF HIS
ACTIONS PLUMMETS. THE FUTILITY OF TERRORISM THEN WILL AT LAST
BE MADE OBVIOUS TO THE TERRORIST HIMSELF, AND HIS DEVASTATING
WAR ON THE MIND AND ON THE INNOCENT WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END.
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