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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,111111Minininn CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 THE WORLD WORK Careers and the Future Edited by Howard F. Didsbury, Jr. Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: -.;IA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Pr(34- THE WORLD OF WORK CAREERS AND THE FUTURE Edited by Howard F. Didsbury, Jr. WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY Bethesda, MD eN U.S.A. Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ICIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Editor: Howard F. Didsbury, Jr. Editorial Review Board: Deirdre H. Banks, James J. Crider, Howard F. Didsbury, Jr. (Chairman), Theodore J. Maziarski, Andrew A. Spekke, Stephen H. Van Dyke Staff Editors: Edward Cornish, Jerry Richardson Production Manager: Jefferson Cornish' Editorial Coordinator: Sarah Warner Editorial Consultants: David G. Cox, Mary Ann Madison, Veronica Perry, Michael Warner Cover Art: Cynthia Fowler Typesetting: Harper Graphics Published by: World Future Society 4916 St. Elmo Avenue Bethesda, Maryland 20814-5089 ? U.S.A. Copyright ? 1983 World Future Society All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced by any means, nor transmitted, nor translated into machine language without the written permission of the copyright holder. Library of Congress Catalog Number: 83-50328 International Standard Book Number: 0-930242-21-1 Printed in the United States or-America Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Contents Preface vii Introduction Finding Solutions to the Real Problems Howard F. Didsbury, Jr. I x STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY Changes in the World of Work: Some Implications for the Future David Macarov 3 The Changing Nature of Work Joseph F. Coates 25 Robots and the Future of Work Edmund Byrne 30 Nine Paradoxes for the 1990s Robert M. Fulmer 39 Toward Full Unemployment Robert Theobald 49 MANAGING TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE Computer-Integrated Manufacturing: The Human Factors Ross Bishop 61 The Future of Management William Exton, Jr. 84 Education for Managers of Accelerating Change George Korey 91 Assessing Preferred Job Attributes for the New Manager of the 1980s David Hopkins and Sandra LaMarre with Jerry Thurber 103 Making Technology Work: A Report from the Battlefield James L. Horton 116 The Segmented Work Force Matthew J. Puleo 123 Computer Technology and Employee Resistance in Future Work Environments Alan W. Ewert and Alison E. Voight 128 Tomorrow's Work Dilemma: Security vs. Access Sanford B. Weinberg 138 111 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: PIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 INNOVATION AND ECONOMIC STRATEGY Innovation and New Institutional Structures John Diebold 145 An Economic Strategy for the 1980s Gary Hart r 151 Technological Innovation and Economic Development Fred Best 155 INCENTIVES AND MOTIVATION Autonomy, Control, and the Office of the Future: Personal and Social Implications Don Mankin 165 Tomorrow's Technical/Communications Labor Force Arthur B. Shostak 171 Industrial Democracy Edward Cohen-Rosenthal 177 CAREERS AND WORK TRENDS Jobs with a Future Marvin J. Cetron 187 Knowledge, Technology, and Professional Motives for the Future M. Kent Mayfield 200 EDUCATION: WHAT DO WE DO? The Reindustrialization of Vocational Education Amitai Etzioni 209 New Work and Education: Socio-Technical Work Theory and School Learning Arthur G. Wirth 219 Getting Ready for the Next Industrial Revolution James O'Toole 232 Current Models for the Future Education of Workers Sharon Rubin and Amy Thomas 237 The Future Impact of Technology on Work Skills Henry M. Levin and Russell W. Rumberger 247 Human Capital: A High-Yield Corporate Investment Anthony Patrick Carnevale 254 Needed: New Model Adult Universities Gerard G. Gold and Nancy B. Blackman 263 Preparing California' s Work Force for the Jobs of the Future The California Commission on Industrial Innovation 270 iv Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 WORK, LIFE-STYLE, AND LEISURE Telecommuting: Its Impact on the Home Jane Kingston 287 Work/Family Policies: An Innovation Theory Approach Lillian Little 301 Work, Leisure, and Culture Vukan Kuic 310 ADDITIONAL READING An Overview of Work Issues: A Selected Bibliography from FUTURE SURVEY Michael Marien Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 321 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Note This volume was prepared in conjunction with the World Future So- ciety's special conference, "Working Now and in the Future," held in Washington, D.C., August 11 and 12, 1983. Kenneth W. Hunter served as general chairman of the conference. The staff coordinator was David A. Smith. The papers presented here were selected from the very large number submitted to the Editorial Review Committee. The committee regrets that space limitations permitted only a small number of papers to be published in this volume. In addition, many papers had to be cut substantially. Footnotes and other scholarly paraphernalia were minimized, so that as wide a selection of thoughts as possible could be presented. vi Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Preface The papers in this volume offer insights into the problems associated with work and careers, employment and unemployment in a world that is being rapidly transformed by accelerating technological innovations. The authors examine, from a wide variety of perspectives, the likely impacts of the multi-faceted changes now under way. As is the usual case with a volume in which there are a large number of contributors, a sharp delineation of topics is difficult, if not impossible. We hope the arrangement that has been adopted will be helpful to the reader. The introduction, "Finding Solutions to the Real Problems," is designed to serve as a general orientation. Following this, the book is organized into eight sections. These sections are: Structural Changes in the Economy; Managing Technological Change; Innovation and Economic Strategy; Incentives and Motivation; Careers and Work Trends; Education: What Do We Do?; Work, Life-style, and Leisure; and Additional Reading. Two additional brief comments: The reader will find that the section entitled "Education: What Do We Do?" offers a number of radically different views of the role and need for education in the emerging electronic age. Some views appear to be contradictory. Confronted with such contradictory assertions, one can sympathize with policy-makers' dilemmas. Lastly, the eighth section consists of a brief, selective bibliography of additional sources for further reading. vii Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Introduction Finding Solutions to the Real Problems by Howard F. Didsbury, Jr. The United States?once without peer?faces serious and far-reaching economic and technological challenges of both international and national consequence. On this there is general agreement. In retrospect, the Pax Americana, the United States Century, was ac- celerated and compressed into the period of 1945 to 1975 or thereabouts. The first Arab oil embargo occurred in the fall of 1973; 1975 marked the end of the Vietnamese War. Massive United States productivity, economic growth, general prosperity (albeit with periodic recessions), and rising expectations characterized those years when both the vanquished and vic- torious of World War II recuperated and rebuilt. In terms of sheer geo- political and military power, two giants stood astride the globe, the United States and the Soviet Union. Today these two giants find themselves handicapped?perhaps pro- foundly?by their own enormous destructive technology. As the twenty- first century approaches, there is every indication that it will be charac- terized by an even greater tendency toward polycentrism, that is, a mul- tipolar political world. In addition, it is reasonable to anticipate many new members joining the ranks of the advanced and technologically sophis- ticated nations. The economic and political implications of humanity's novel state of affairs are immense. Is such an eventuality a cause for alarm, fear, or despair? Sober re- flection suggests that it is not. The vast economic and technological trans- formation in which more and more nations are involved means that the United States may no longer be the first of two great powers. From here on, we and the Soviet Union?excluding nuclear madness, of course? will be but two of an increasing number of advanced technological nations. This newly emerging arrangement may, in fact, foreshadow the evolution of a planetary system only vaguely perceived at this time. Such a devel- opment should not be alien to Americans. The Great Seal of the United States itself announces the expectation of "Novus Ordo Seclorum," the advent of "New Order for the Ages." Howard F. Didsbuty, Jr., is professor of history and executive director, Program for the Study of the Future, Kean College of New Jersey, Union, New Jersey. He is also director of media projects for the World Future Society. ix Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Consider the national dimension of the economic and technological challenges we face. One hears much about the lack of worker incentive and morale, productivity decline, excessive taxation, governmental med- dling and regulations, etc., as the causes (one or all in concert) of the national economic malaise. Such myths and misconceptions tend to cloud our thinking and distract us from a pursuit of the truly novel insights required for imaginative, effective planning. Is excessive taxation destroying initiative and discouraging investment? The United States has lower tax rates than 16 other industrialized nations. We hear that the power of unionized labor inhibits economic progress. But U.S. workers are the least unionized of advanced industrial nations. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor, in 1980 only 20.8% of the U.S. labor force was unionized. Amer- ican workers, it is asserted, have too much time off, yet German workers as well as others have more holidays. Another notion alleges U.S. workers to be overly concerned with job security. This may well be?and for very good reason. The American worker can be fired more easily than a worker in most other industrial nations?job insecurity is a reality. Do inordinate social-service expenditures hobble investment and drag the economy down? Other industrial nations spend more proportionately on such services. In fact, "Alone of all industrial countries, the U.S. lacks a national health insurance system."' Governmental interference and regulations, especially environmental regulations, are also cited as causes of poor economic performance. Yet, other industrial nations, such as West Germany and Japan, have much more governmental interference and more stringent environmental regu- lations. Finally, "Few truisms are so firmly implanted in the American consciousness as the notion that our economy is a private-enterprise one. The fact is that it is not. It is private and public, profit-making and not- for-profit: a pluralistic economy." "The important distinction is between the private, profit-seeking sector and the total not-for-profit sector."2 The not-for-profit sector employs one worker out of three. The structural changes taking place in our economy become clearer when such myths are dis- pelled, and solutions to genuine problems can then be sought. The transformation of the economy was described by Eli Ginzberg and George J. Vojta in a recent article: Four mutually reinforcing changes?the displacement of goods by services at the cutting edge of economic growth, the growth of the not-for-profit sector, the increasing importance of human capital and the internationalization of the business system?have transformed the U.S. economy over the past 30 years.3 Are we not-an information economy-when-one-half of the gross national-- cproduct is concerned with, processing-, and handling of _ information? When-one-half -of-the U.S.- labor face' is So employed? We must not assume these fundamental changes to be mere departures or aberrations from the "normal" course of events. To do so would be folly. A microelectronics revolution is occurring and we can forecast some of its likely effects. Changes in the twentieth century, especially in the latter half, appear to be accelerating. Technological innovation and ap- Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 plication, encompassing robotics, is everywhere evident. With such changes, technological unemployment and underemployment may well prove to be a permanent, nontransitional phenomenon. As refutation, past historical examples of such fears and their final banishment with the creation of greater employment could be cited. It is the fable of the boy crying wolf, we are reminded. But in the fable the wolf finally appears. Can we be sure that this wolf, permanent unemployment, has not at last arrived? In a provocative book review article in two parts entitled "Management and the Microelectronic Revolution,"4 Brian C. Twiss discussed a grow- ing consensus among experts that microelectronics would eliminate more jobs than it created. They foresee a decline in the number of skilled workers because of the computer's speed, accuracy, memory capacity, and pro- cessing capability. Before long, robots will combine decision-making with manual dexterity. "Whereas previous technologies such as the car industry created multiplier effects which stimulated the growth of new labour em- ploying activities, for example car repair and garage's] . . . the reverse is the case with microelectronics. Amongst the reasons for this are the long life, reliability, small size, low material usage, low power con- sumption and high speed of operation of microelectronic circuits." These experts feel that microelectronics will decimate office jobs. Overall, im- proved production techniques will allow marked increases in productivity without corresponding increases in the work force in the microelectronics industry. Such effects weaken the view that the microelectronics revolution is just another technological revolution. Ultimately, workers may become superfluous by "design." The objective is to increase productivity and cut costs. Why redesign a job in order to "enrich" it for the worker if the worker himself can be eliminated by redesign? In the past, it is true, a new technology led to increased employment? ultimately. It should be noted, though all too frequently it is not, that that "ultimately" signified considerable interim anxiety, hardship, and tragedy for many people. Whenever someone glibly declares that things will be fine in the long run, one is reminded of a remark attributed to John Maynard Keynes to the effect that in the long run we are all dead. It all depends upon how long the run is, and who is forced to do the running. What is to be done with the many while they await the happy day of new em- ployment alternatives? The previous historical trend may not be duplicated.C.Theabs---> _cLeate-cl ftlay,not be_greaterthan-the-numbereliminateth-Equallrimportan qh ou gtraterrobs c u rut byial I for-increase-di-6Tel s:of eL__lues-ation=and_training_and_retrainfill the new more-chal---Th? lenpng_or-less-challenging-thth-FJObs--Theing elfthinated?-for-all?7E61-277--, A dark side of the glamorous picture of the need for "advanced" education and/or retraining lies in the fact that much of the new technology demands great mental powers for its creation, but for its operation or, more properly, "tending," it requires much lower mental abilities than the tasks it replaces or eliminates. dn---other-words7thei-cf?eatTrr_Of-the-------1 syst y.:ctin-itilYIWIREnteraCers'I-Tor-The-syster me n s el y--borat._ xi Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ICIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Anothet problem .s women in the work force today and tomorrow. In the course Mlle-development of industrial civilization, few thinkers ever contemplated women permanently in the work force seeking their own personal career and talent development. Full employment, when dis- cussed, was assumed to mean full male employment. Technological unemployment and women permanently in the work force are factors in the crucial question: Will there be jobs for all who want jobs? This question posed today means something very different than it did when posed 30 or 40 years ago. Today, it must be considered in a totally new cultural milieu. Failure to do so may lead to great social unrest. In a world of pervasive mass communication media that create and perpetuate insatiable wants and extravagant life expectations, who will take jobs that are dull or unpleasant, however euphemistically they may be described? If the financial rewards for doing such tasks are raised dramatically to attract takers, the incentive on the part of employers to substitute robots, etc., becomes increasingly attractive, if not compelling for economic survival. Unwillingness to accept just any job on the part of the jobless, though widely denounced in terms approaching moral condemnation, is a logical result of people living immersed in a world of communication media that inculcate an ethos of personal gratification and individual self-fulfillment. There is little, if any, esteem for the performance of dull or unpleasant jobs. We are victims of our own success. We have succeeded remarkably in communicating the easy, selfish, hedonistic life-style so well that few will accept anything less. Time and again, in discussions of jobs, there seems to be a failure to appreciate sufficiently the cultural milieu created by the media and how this milieu affects attitudes toward work and worker expectations. One wonders how long the misery and suffering associated with the rise of industrial civilization would have been quietly endured if mass communication media had existed at the time. Not long, one sus- pects. Contrary to a widespread current view that sees a lessening role for government in the future as a desired goal or inevitable trend, the com- plexity, interrelatedness, and extensiveness of such problems as the struc- tural transformation of the economy and the microelectronics revolution suggest that such a view may be illusory. Does it seem likely that the private, for-profit sector can possibly respond adequately to the multi- plicity of complex challenges that must be dealt with simultaneously? The private sector cannot meet these momentous challenges?not because of ignorance or indifference but from incapacity. The challenges we face and the passage of time will make it clear that extravagant faith in the dynamics of untrammelled self-interest is becoming increasingly unproductive, if not positively detrimental to national sur- vival. There is beginning to appear a recognition of the limitations of the "adversarial syndrome" that has been so characteristic of the United States. More and more, people are discovering the necessity of having a genuine sense of cooperation among industry, labor, and government. Effective, productive cooperation will be the result of responsible lead- ership, vision, and dedication on the part of each. xii Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Notes I. Ira C. Magaziner and Robert B. Reich, Minding America's Business: The De- cline and Rise of the American Economy. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1982, p. 19. See chapter 1 (The American Standard of Living, pp. 11-27) and chapter 3 (Common Explanations for the Productivity Decline in the United States, pp. 41- 59). 2. Eli Ginzberg, "The Pluralistic Economy of the U.S." in Scientific American, December 1976, Vol. 235, No. 6, p. 25. 3. "The Service Sector of the U.S. Economy" in Scientific American, March 1981, Vol. 244, No. 3, pp. 52-53. 4. "Management and the Microelectronics Revolution?Part I?Book Review Article," Long Range Planning, 1981, Vol. 14, No. 5, pp. 101-105. "Management and the Microelectronics Revolution?Part II?Book Review Article," Long Range Planning, 1981, Vol. 14, No. 6, pp. 83-89. Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Structural Changes in the Economy Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Changes in the World of Work: Some Implications for the Future by David Macarov There are certain changes in society that can be likened to an incoming tide?slowly, inexorably, and quietly they make their way over a long period of time until one day the results become clearly discernible. There are other changes that are more like a tidal wave?suddenly, within a relatively short time, immense changes take place. There are still other changes that are like underground water?unless and until searched for, they remain mostly invisible. In this paper, three changes in the world of work and some of their implications for the future will be discussed: the ongoing shift from industrial to service employment; the impact of tech- nology; and changing worker attitudes, each of which is a change of a different kind. Each of these changes influences the others, and is, in turn, influenced by them. They are discussed separately here purely for heuristic purposes. There are, to be sure, important changes taking place in the world of work in addition to these three, such as the entry of more women into the workplace; the role of minority groups; the use of migrant and immigrant labor; the aging of work populations; higher levels of education among workers; and others. However, the three changes mentioned above seem more overarching, affecting more societal aspects, and of greater portent than any others, and hence make up the subject of this article. The data and trends used herein are mainly taken from American sources, unless otherwise noted. The time-frame, forward and backward, is middle- range?about 50 years. Work is used to mean that which people do to acquire the material necessities and luxuries of life and the services that they need and want. The Shift to Service Employment The shift from manufacturing or industrial employment to employment in the services can best be likened to an incoming tide. It has been growing slowly but continually for at least the last 50 years?so slowly that the implications of this basic shift in one of the most important bases of David Macarov is associate professor, Paul Baerwald School of Social Work, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem, Israel. Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: [CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 society has not yet resulted in the public attention, the research, the adoption of new policies, and modifications in attitudes that themagnitude of the shift requires. In 1929, 40% of the jobs in the United States were in the service sector (Gershuny and Rosengren). In 1950, the United States moved into that which has been termed "the service society," with 51% of the jobs in the services (Gershuny and Rosengren; Gartner and Reissman). This grew to 55% in 1967, and by 1980 was estimated at 80% (Thurow). In fact, of all the new jobs created between 1973 and 1980, 70% were in the services (Bolan), and almost 50% of total job growth in the 1970s came from the white collar and service sectors (Leon). In addition, two-thirds of the self-employed in the United States produce services (Newland). And there are forecasts that service employment will constitute 95% of all employment by the end of this century (Stellman), and even that it will reach 97% as early as 1990 (Best). Most of the studies and projections listed above simply distinguish between people who create or change physical objects, and those who do not. However, an understanding of the extent of the shift and its impli- cations demands more precise definitions. Unfortunately, it is not easy to arrive at a satisfactory definition of the services. A Bureau of Labor report on productivity in the services says: "There are severe conceptual as well as data problems in measuring productivity in such industries as education and social services, and in the important field of medical services" (Mark). Some of these difficulties can be understood when it is recognized that in Britain, for example, half of the people who are said to be engaged in services perform functions that are in direct support of production activities (Gershuny). Or, looked at another way, about a third of the people who work in goods-producing activities have service jobs (Newland). These are the people who type the letters, move the goods, keep the books, solicit sales, prepare advertising, and clean the offices and plants. Without them, production would be neither possible nor useful; without production, these workers would have no function. In these cases, the relationship between services and production is symbiotic. There is no generally accepted way of defining services. Definitions tend to be operational, i.e., depending on the purpose of the research or the thrust of the article. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics distinguished between four categories of white-collar workers; four cat- egories of blue-collar workers; service workers; and farm workers. Howe would add "pink-collar" workers, and discussants of robots sometimes refer to them as "steel-collar" workers. The Occupation Code used by the InterUniversity Consortium for Political Research (Robinson, et al.) lists social workers as professional and technical, as are accountants and funeral directors, whereas army officers are listed as service workers. Other studies use other bases for grouping jobs (Morris and Murphy; Roe; Super). Some equate social class with types of jobs (Freeman and Lam- bert), and even the term "working class" is defined differently in many investigations (Miller, 1964). The definitional differences within the services are no less formidable. 4 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17 .01A-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Miller (1978), for example, divides services between those that contribute to labor power and those that contribute to well-being. However, between these two (and ignoring the overlap among them) there are services that contribute to well-being directly and indirectly; personally and anony- mously; greatly or marginally; by performing a service or by delivering a service; and even by making it possible for the person to serve himself or herself. For example, nurses generally perform services directly for patients, while the fruits of medical researchers' work is an indirect service. The social worker may deal with an individual on a personal and caring basis, whereas the ticket-seller at the theatre neither knows nor cares about the purchaser as an individual. The policeman who thwarts a crime contributes greatly to the well-being of the intended victim, while the giving of parking tickets contributes only marginally to the well-being of most people. Sim- ilarly, peacetime soldiers are rarely seen as performing as direct a personal service as are firemen fighting a blaze. The hairdresser, the plumber, the electrician may be seen as performing a service, while the fastfood counter person, the bank teller, or the postman may be seen as delivering a service. Finally, the person who installs the vending machine or the bankomat makes it possible for the client to serve himself or herself. Even within the so-called "human services," usually thought of as consisting of ed- ucation, nursing, and social work, but actually including institutional care, probation officers, guidance counselors, etc., there are those who distin- guish between "general" and "personal" services (Kamerman and Kahn), and?within the personal services?between working with individuals, families, groups, neighborhoods, and communities. These definitional and taxonomic distinctions and confusions are not simply pedantic?they mask real differences in the demands and rewards of various jobs, and must be taken into account when attempting to un- derstand patterns, attitudes, and trends in the world of work. Unfortu- nately, the differences between productive and service jobs, no matter how fuzzily defined, and the differences between various types of service jobs are rarely taken into consideration in research on or discussions of work and workers. Indeed, the great bulk of research done in, and attention paid to, the world of work continues to take place within the manufacturing sector and among industrial workers, despite the fact that only a small minority of jobs are actually goods-producing today. And yet the service society in which we live may be different from the industrial society of the past in many ways, with differences between the various types of services equally great. In light of the research-lag that exists?and even the lack of an adequate taxonomy of services?some of these differences can only be identified through tangential evidence, and others through anecdotal, impressionistic, and logical means. Some of these changes, and their implications, follow. Prestige. In the past, working in the services has generally been con- sidered more prestigeful than engaging in factory work (Caplow), when the level and conditions of the job are held constant. Under the same circumstances, women were found to prefer clerical work to factory work, 5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17 CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 even when the former paid less (Caplow). Among all service workers, performing personal services under the aegis of an organization was pre- ferred to doing the same work for an individual. These findings, however, are now 30 years old. Beaumont, among others, feels that service jobs? or, more precisely, public service jobs?have fallen into comparative disrepute in the intervening period, due to increased personal financial security, the difficulty of measuring results in the services, increasing affluence, and budget-cutting measures that posit public services as "fat" that can be reduced without damaging anyone. There is also the possibility that services in many areas, having been taken over by new immigrants, are no longer seen as prestigious. It is equally possible that such jobs have been relegated to new immigrants precisely because they lack status. In any case, the extent to which working in the services?or in certain services?is seen as more or less prestigious may have growing impli- cations for the recruitment and retention of workers in such positions. Salaries and productivity. It is difficult to find aggregate figures that compare salaries in industry with those in service, due to the definitional problems mentioned previously. However, if one accepts the Bureau of Labor Statistics' taxonomy, then it is clear that the services?widely defined?pay less than other sectors. In 1980 the average gross weekly wage in the private sector of the United States, excluding agriculture as an area and supervisory/managerial personnel as a category, was $235. Workers in mining, construction, manufacturing, transportation, and pub- lic utilities earned more than the average; persons in wholesale and retail trade, finance, insurance, real estate, and the services earned less. For example, mine workers earned $396; wholesale and retail workers, $176; and service workers, $190. How the addition of supervisory and mana- gerial services in the various sectors would affect these relationships is not clear, but to the extent that these figures affect reality on the non- managerial level, then the shift from manufacturing to service occupations will result in lower incomes from most workers, unless the wage structure is adjusted to match the new reality. A continuing problem in the determination of wages in the service sector is the measurement of productivity (Miller). Even if one considers units of service, instead of individuals, there is general agreement that results are difficult to measure, as are the problems in simply determining costs. A Steelcase-sponsored study called the measurement of white-collar pro- ductivity "the most perplexing and troublesome issue" in the area (World of Work Report, January, 1983). Because of such difficulties?and adding to them?most measures of productivity in the services use the methods and instruments of industry, and thus tend toward the quantitative. In a productivity drive in the New York City social welfare department, for example, results were cited in the number of cases cut from the rolls. There was no attempt to measure the quality of the service, or even the number of people entitled to services and not receiving them (Katzell). Amitai Etzioni has pointed out the service implications of such measurements?when there is an emphasis on count- ing, there is a tendency to do the things most easily counted, regardless 6 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 of their effectiveness. It is for this reason that Peter Drucker holds that service organizations cannot perform: since there is no "bottom line" indicating profit or loss, they have no real criterion for success. Services for the aged, for example, suffer in comparison with rehabilitation ser- vices, for the former are clearly an expense, while the latter can be seen as an investment (Black). The inability to measure the productivity of the services, particularly in qualitative terms, has obvious implications for the growth of the service society. Less obvious is the fact that salaries thus become based on sen- iority, if not longevity, with raises coming automatically rather than on merit. The meaning of this factor for the quality of services has not yet been explored in any meaningful way. Education and training. Among the many instruments of socialization that prepare people for the world of work, the educational system is among the most important. The toddler on the see-saw in nursery school is taught to sing that when Jack gets a new master, he shall get but a penny a day because he can't work any faster. Caplow points out that the potato race in kindergarten is conducted along more competitive lines than is the insurance business. Official British reports criticize the educational system as not preparing people sufficiently for work (Anthony), while an official American report says that "the market value of education has driven out its other values" (Work in America.) Such socialization, however, usually views work within the industrial context, and the qualities that it seeks to implant arise from that sector. Emphasis is usually on punctuality, be- havior, and following the rules; on competition, precision, and seeking pragmatic or measurable results. It is possible, however, that successful work in the service sector re- quires different emphases?on creativity, feelings, creating good rela- tionships, cooperation, neighborliness, and (that oft-misunderstood word) empathy. That the socialization undergone in the educational system is still based on industrial rather than service employment is understandable, given the lag between the recognition of a need and its incorporation into formal educational structures, which?according to Marland?may be as great as 50 years. Another aspect of the educational area has to do with training and re- training courses. Many of these are given in order to make possible a job transition from no-longer-available jobs to new, or other, jobs. Again, most of this training is for industrial or, at best, indirect-service jobs. This may explain, in part, the poor track record of many such training programs. The number of people who do not complete such programs is high, while? as Somers found?drop-outs have a higher job-placement rate than do those who complete such courses. Those who do graduate tend to find jobs in areas other than those for which they were trained (Goldstein). In Israel, only 44% of lightly injured employees who underwent training courses got work in the fields for which they were trained (Rehabilitation of the Work Injured). When they get jobs in the field for which they were trained, the job or the pay is usually not as good as in the previous job. Finally, it is not at all clear the extent to which, or in what areas, training Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 or experience in industrial settings is directly transferable to service job needs. Personal characteristics. It seems entirely possible, if not prima facie evident, that the personal characteristics necessary to succeed in service jobs, and particularly in the so-called "hands-on" services, may be dif- ferent from those necessary in the industrial world. Neff, for one, has called attention to the possibility of a "work personality"?a relatively enduring set of characteristics, derived from lifelong socialization, that marks the attitude of the individual toward work. Others have sought the developmental factors that lead to differential attitudes toward work (Ma- carov, 1982). There are also some studies that attempt to correlate per- sonality characteristics with attitudes toward work, but these, inevitably, are done only within the industrial sector. What is not clear is the extent to which certain personality characteristics are necessary for, or contribute to success in, service jobs. Levinson and associates, discussing service workers, say "These people needed to be loved. And they were loved. That's what giving service gets you." But beyond this, do service workers need to be flexible rather than rigid; outgoing, not introverted? And would these differences be equally im- portant on a production line, for example? Professional schools do some- times seek evidence of certain characteristics among candidates. In Israel, the desire for medical students who would become family doctors rather than specialists led, at one time, to a search for tests for altruism. Schools of social work sometimes interview candidates for their emotional char- acteristics as much as for their intellectual level. There are calls for altruism (Lubove), empathy (Keefe), and self-awareness (Brill), among other char- acteristics. To work successfully in the human services, one may need to be able to live comfortably with uncertainty, since in few services are the results immediately observable and in many of them even the action indicated is a choice among equals. Further, Shamir has pointed out the necessity for social workers to live with the constant role strain of being between "service and servility." Others have discussed "burn-out" in the services in terms of the constant "giving" of oneself that is inherent in the helping professions (Cherviss). There is also the frustration present in not being able to do the job for which one has trained due to lack of resources, lack of time, inadequate arrangements, and bureaucratic reg- ulations (Fisch). An unpublished report of the Ministry of Work and Welfare in Israel speaks of the tendency of experienced social workers to develop hostility toward their clients, due to the abovementioned strains. Consequently, many professional schools, including nursing and social work, either seek empathic candidates, or attempt to teach/instill empathy in students, despite many questions concerning the concept itself (Ma- carov, 1978). Pearson even questions whether unskilled male workers, presently unemployed, are suitable recruits for the service sector or the new technologies. Satisfactions. The sources of satisfaction in the services may be quite different from those in industry. In Herzberg's well-known studies, in which sources of satisfaction and dissatisfaction were found to be dissim- 8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: .7,1A-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 ilar, relationships with others was considered an aspect of work conditions, rather than the work itself, and therefore a dissatisfier. In a study conducted in an Israeli kibbutz, interpersonal relationships were almost evenly di- vided between satisfiers and dissatisfiers. Further examination revealed that this study included child-care workers and teachers, for whom, in general, relations with pupils resulted in satisfactions, while relations with students' parents had the opposite effect (Macarov, 1971). Thits, satis- factions at work within the services might contain different and/or addi- tional items than satisfaction in industry. This possibility is fraught with immense importance. Although 50 years of searching has begun to result in the conclusion that there is no reliable, replicable, generalizable relationship between satisfactions and work pat- terns in industry (Strauss; Locke; Lawler and Porter), the possible influence of workers' feelings on the services they render has hardly been examined. Dyer and Schwab say that "During the (past) decade . . . researchers continued to find no consistent causal or correlational relationship between satisfaction and performance." However, although an assembly-line worker who is highly dissatisfied with some aspect of his or her job might not be inclined or able to vent these feelings on the product?or might be able to do so in a visible, and therefore repairable, manner?the quality of the service worker's "product," be it nursing, social work, or teaching, might suffer in a manner that is not immediately discernible, but which might be counter-indicated, or even damaging. On the other hand, sat- isfactions from contact with others might be so helpful that they lead to absence of alienation, stress, absenteeism, and the other ills to which job malaise in industry is related. Again, there is little research in this area, but there is logic in believing that sources of worker satisfaction are different in the services, and that there is a possibility that this has a differential impact on productivity, however measured. Societal implications. In addition to these differences in individuals that might demarcate the services from industry, there are also societal implications. Self-help groups of various kinds, from recreational to sub- stance-abusers, long presaged the new Quality Circles and similar phe- nomena in industry, in which meeting together in search of satisfaction and results are of the essence. Many of these groups provide members with services of various kinds, and are characteristic of what Riessman terms the "self-help ethos." He identifies 15 million people in half-a- million such groups. In addition, there is the entire volunteer network in society, which operates almost entirely outside the industrial complex. Gidron indicates that one out of every four Americans over the age of 14 is doing some form of volunteer work, and that the dollar value of this contribution to society is somewhere between $34 billion and $68 billion annually. Indeed, such groups may even reduce the need for service workers. Gershuny postulates that the do-it-yourself movement, as well as those appliances that take the place of workers or service-providers? washing machines, dryers, dishwashers, rug-shampooers, adhesive-backed wallpaper, and similar devices?will lead to the "self-service" society, Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: [CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: IA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 in which the need for outside services will be minimized. Glazer sees the same general result from the decentralization of services now taking place. Further, the societal implications of the shift to services should include the fact that the service sector has proved more recession-proof than has the industrial sector, in terms of jobs maintained and created (Urquhart), a fact that also has great implications for the future as society becomes increasingly service-oriented. Shifting from industry to services. Finally, a word needs to be said about the much-discussed manpower shortage in the services, which the fallout from industry is postulated as filling in. On the one hand, the so- called need is rarely viewed in terms of needing more persons in the indirect services?more ticket sellers, night watchmen, or insurance sales- men, for example?but rather in the human services. Here, too, the need is not seen for more highly trained technicians in the medical field, or even for more teachers. In most cases, there are enough people available, or ready to become available. The shortage is in jobs; or, more precisely, in jobs that will attract workers through good conditions, which Rubin lists as pay, permanence, and perquisites, but which also include status, hours, and the actual work performed. It is doubtful, for example, if there is an actual shortage of nurses in the United States, despite understaffed institutions. One-third of the nurses in the United States are not working in their profession, while another third work only part-time (Rowland). The problems are shift-work, night work, low pay, and little opportunity for advancement. In Israel, where it is officially estimated that another 8,000 nurses are needed, 41% of those trained work only part-time (Hand- less). Shortages in hospitals are described as lack of job-slots, not of personnel. Training more people, who will also not work or work only part-time, is not an answer. The actual shortage of service personnel, although rarely defined so openly, is for the lowest levels of the occupations?those who will push the wheelchairs, empty the bedpans, change the linens, do the laundry, serve the food, clean the floors?in short, that which Gans has called the dirty, dead-end jobs of society. In addition to undertaking these tasks, such personnel are called upon to hold the client's hand; listen to com- plaints, histories, and stories (perhaps many times over); be supportive, cheerful, warm, and helpful; and to maintain high morale among them- selves and clients. In return, they will receive the lowest wages, the least job security, the worst conditions, and the lowest status. Mildred Rein points out that only a quarter to a third of the AFDC caseload has em- ployment potential?and then only if the jobs pay more than the minimum wage, and have stability and good fringe benefits. In short, the jobs that society expects the unemployed to take are those that can be filled only through absolute absence of alternatives. To get those jobs filled requires a punitive attitude on the part of society regarding unemployment com- pensation, social welfare, or other means of sustenance. As McKinlay points out, one should not overestimate the extent to which the service sector can absorb workers who are otherwise unable to find employment. The shift from skilled, semi-skilled, or even unskilled industrial jobs will not ensure enlargement of this area of the service sector. 10 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The Impact of Technology Whereas the shift to services has been going on for a relatively long time without being given the attention it deserves, the impact of technology on many phases of human life is constantly in the news and often in the headlines. The changes that are taking place are constant, visible, and meaningful?in short, a tidal wave. Technology has a major impact on productivity, production, jobs, and social systems, among other things. Productivity. Despite fluctuations from year to year, and from country to country, the long-term and middle-term effect of technology on pro- ductivity?person/hours output?has been constantly upwards for at least the last 50 years or so. From 1956 to 1964, productivity rose by 41%; from 1966 to 1975, another 27%. According to the International Labor Office, productivity increases, on the average, about 2.7% per year. Since each year's increase is measured by the previous year, there is a com- pounding effect; in 10 years, individual worker productivity grows by almost 35%. Although many factors contribute to changes in productivity, the most important factor is that of technological progress, which is often considered a function of investment in research and development. Wilson points out that technology accounted for 54.5% of growth in national income per employed person from 1948 through 1969. As a factor in the postwar growth of the Amsrican economy, technology was four times greater than business capital investment; 2.8 times greater than investment in educa- tion, and 3.8 times higher than the improvements from more efficient use of resources. "Without technology the growth rate of the postwar economy would have been cut in half" (Wilson). The role of technology in increasing productivity becomes more evident when compared to human work. Rosow estimates that only 10-25% of the changes in productivity are caused by human labor. In other words, reliance on people working harder, longer, or better as a method of in- creasing productivity may be badly misplaced. If the goal is productivity, rather than keeping people busy or in income, then efforts to change human work patterns may be very inefficient. The major changes in productivity come about through new methods, new machines, and new materials, including energy. The assembly line and interchangeable parts are ex- amples of new methods; robots and microprocessors are today's new machines; and new materials range from synthetics to tailor-made metals to the results of genetic splicing. Indeed, the constant rise in productivity, over long periods, is hardly attributable to human effort at all?very few people today work as long or as hard as their grandparents did. In the eighteenth century, a bill was offered in the British House of Parliament to abolish the patent office, since everything possible had already been invented. There is no more probability that technology will cease to advance today than there was then. Indeed, in many respects modern technology is autonomous, each change or invention calling for, making possible, and involving still further inventions. Mensch points out that oversupply of some types of technology results in even stronger demands for technology. The growth of technology and its concomitant, productivity, must have great influence not only on the production of more 11 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 goods and services at cheaper prices, and on the development of new goods and services, but on other fundamental aspects of society as well. Work and non-work patterns. The constant growth in productivity has made possible a proliferation of various kinds of material goods. Indeed, there is hardly an item in the Western world that is in short supply due to production difficulties. Most goods are produced in expectation of consumer demand, and could be made available in much greater quantities without straining production capacities. Increased productivity has also made possible the invention and introduction of new items, as well as an expansion in services and the invention of (and requirement for) new services. In fact, the above-mentioned shift from production to services is almost completely a function of growing technology. Three important changes that have been brought about by technology include the impact on work times, on the number of jobs available, and on the content of the jobs. Work times. One overall figure typifies the situation: In 1900, the average workweek in the United States was 53 hours; in 1980, 35.5 hours. In addition, vacations are longer, there are more workless holidays, entry into the work force is later, and retirement is earlier. These figures, which are from the International Labour Organization, include part-time workers and take into account overtime work. Insofar as workers holding second jobs is concerned, this has been constant at about 5% of the work force for many years (Michelotti: Rees; Taylor and Sekscenski). There are many predictions that work times will continue to decrease, and there is no reason to believe that the trend will cease or reverse itself. On the contrary, Bell predicts a 30-hour week and 13 weeks of vacation a year by the year 2000. Emery foresees a week of four 8-hour days, with summer and winter vacations, while Albus predicts a 10-hour week. Others use different figures and different time-frames, but no one predicts stabilization of hours at present levels, much less a return to longer work hours. This is not to say, however, that within these hours people work hard, or to their full capacity. Increasing productivity, which can be translated into less demand for human labor, runs head-on into society's need to provide members with income via jobs, as well as societal values that equate working with worth. Hence, many jobs continue to be maintained despite the fact that changes in machines or methods could eliminate many, if not almost all, the human workers. And in some cases, the jobs are maintained together with the introduction of machinery that makes the job all but useless. Thus, as in the case of the New York Times change in printing methods in 1974, 630 people were given lifetime contracts for work that only required 350 people (Zimbalist). Seen on a large scale, the introduction of labor-saving machinery almost always results in some unnecessary jobs being maintained as the cost of labor peace. Not only as a result of such Luddism, but as a consequence of increasing productivity, most people with jobs that are not at the upper levels of the organizational hierarchy are not called upon to use all their energy, or their full potential. Walbank found that people use about 44% of their ability in their jobs, and Berg and Associates found that 54% of the people could work harder than they do. In this author's research, when kibbutz 12 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 members were asked why they did not work to their full ability, the response almost invariably was that the job did not require it (Macarov, 1971). As a consequence of holding jobs that do not require working at full capacity, the phenomenon known scientifically as "unproductive work time," and more familiarly as "loafing" (Schrank), seems to be growing (Kendrick). In addition to anecdotal material of workers gossiping, hang- ing around, making personal phone calls, and leaving the worksite for personal errands, Cherrington reports tracking workers on a construction job for over two years, finding that only 49% of the time used was related to the job. A study of managers' time use found that only 55% of the time was used for managing (World of Work Report, June, 1982). That this is a general phenomenon is supported by a report from Moscow that shop hours in the Soviet Union are being changed to keep workers from "slipping away from their jobs to shop and run errands," and that raiding parties visit bars, restaurants, barber shops, and stores looking for workers who have "ducked out of the office" (Jerusalem Post, January 16, 1983). As technology continues to make inroads on the areas that once required human labor, work times will continue to decrease, but since that decrease will lag behind the actual needed changes, the amount of unproductive time on the job will probably continue to grow. Impact on the number of jobs. In addition to impacting on the content of jobs, technology will also affect the number of jobs available. The extent of this change, and even its direction, are still hotly debated, in terms of whether technology creates new industries and thus new jobs; whether it replaces old industries with new ones, and thus has a negligible effect; or whether it wipes out more jobs than it creates. Hull and associates hold that technology decreases jobs in manufacturing by about 3% a year, but whether this is made up by increases in service jobs is not clear. One must look at the aggregate figures for employment, while holding constant many other factors such as the price of energy, to arrive at a reasonably educated guess. What does seem to be clear, however, is that, except tor times ot war, no industrialized country has had full employment, whether this is defined simply as more jobs than workers available; or jobs of some kind for everyone who wants one; or decent jobs, paying a living wage, offering a good or a service that is socially desirable, through a process that does not damage the ecology. Official unemployment rates throughout the West have been generally rising since World War II, with the "acceptable" rate of unemployment having risen from 4% after the War to 6-7% today?rates that have not been achieved. And the official rate must be seen as one-half to one-third of the actual rate, due to definitional artifacts (Field) and hidden unemployment in terms of part-time jobs, discouraged workers, persons on training stipends, etc. (Macarov, 1980). Together with the classic definitions of frictional, structural, and cyclic unemploy- ment, there seems to exist in most countries that which can best be de- scribed as "permanent" unemployment?a situation that training programs, job creation, public service employment, subsidies, and so forth seem 13 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 unable to eliminate (Taggart; Rein). Indeed, intensified technological com- petition is the reason for many bankruptcies (Mensch), which adds to unemployment. 4 It would be a mistake to assume that the impact of technology is confined to the industrial sector. Despite the previously-mentioned difficulties in defining and measuring productivity in the services, such efforts continue (Carnes; Carey and Otto; Carnes and Band) and indicate a growth not less than that in maufacturing?about 2.5% annually. It has been estimated, for example, that automation in offices could easily result in 15% more productivity within five years (World of Work Report, November 1980). Even at present, over 30% of middle-management positions in banks could be eliminated without any appreciable effect on service (World of Work Report, June 1982). In short, the service sector is no less vulnerable to the inroads of automation than is the manufacturing sector. Constantly reduced work times, maintenance of unneeded jobs, growing unproductive work time, and increasing unemployment may arise from reasons other than the advance of technology, but the latter has certainly been an important component in the mixture, and one whose impact must be taken into account by all social planners. Job content. As in other areas of the technology discussion, there is no agreement as to whether technology turns interesting jobs into dull, routine ones ("gauge guarding"); or whether it tends to take over the latter. Insofar as robots are concerned, it seems reasonably clear that they are first introduced to do the difficult, dangerous, undesirable jobs? welding hard-to-get-at spots, spraying paint, etc. As they have become more sophisticated, overriding humanlike shapes, only two arms, and such restrictions, they have moved further and further into tasks that require discrimination, decisions, and the use of humanlike senses. With these advances, a number of researchers have concluded that robots tend to wipe out the dirty, difficult, disagreeable jobs (Glenn and Fielding; Zim- balist; Kraft), thus making life better for workers. On the other hand, there are those who see technology as removing the interesting aspects of work, thereby increasing worker alienation (Richardson). Gable and Meers studied mechanization in a bank setting, and found that one-quarter of the workers seemed to have limited capabilities and/or ambition, and were neutral regarding the change; one-quarter were unsatisfied by the content of their work, but compensated by other elements; and fully one-half of the workers wanted more enriching work. Regardless of their effect on work or workers, robots seem destined to play an increasingly large role in the future of work. Cassier-Lotto points out that a robot costing $45,000, amortized over eight years, will cost $5 an hour as compared to $15 an hour now paid a human worker in industry. Schrank half-facetiously suggests that it would be well for workers to buy robots to do their own jobs and then lease them to the employers, while living on the differential. Albus seriously discusses changes that will be needed to avoid societal dysfunctions, and dislocations in the event of broadened use of robots, and suggest, inter alia, "if all humans could own the equivalent of one or two robots, they would be financially in- 14 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 dependent regardless of whether they were employed or not." In any case, much of Japan's successful competition with other industrial countries has been attributed to the policy of using robots in place of humans wherever possible (New York Times, March 21, 1982). It is possible that technology actually polarizes the job situation, re- moving whatever interest there was in low-level jobs, in terms of inter- personal contacts, control, and interest; while adding interest to upper- level jobs through ability to get more done, to do new things, to solve problems, etc. However, even at this level, there is evidence of an erosion of interest as technology takes over. Computer programmers, for example, who were once thought to have been awarded interesting careers, are now being phased out by computers that program themselves. Again, changes in the content of jobs are not confined to the industrial sector. The nurse who monitors a computer screen indicating the condition of each patient on the ward may be more efficient than one who makes regular rounds, but may miss the contact, the excitement, and even the exercise. An Israeli study of nurses' satisfactions, for example, indicated that satisfactions from contact with patients far outweighed satisfactions from contact with other nurses, charge nurses, or doctors (Handless). Heller's study of automated office equipment indicated a number of phys- ical and emotional problems as a result. Bairn says that growing numbers of service or clerical workers experience the same feelings of alienation as do factory workers. System changes. Technological changes should not be viewed only within the context of specific machines taking over certain human tasks. The more pervasive impact of technology is on total systems. Gabor, for example, writing in 1964, foresaw wide advances for technology, but confessed that he could not conceive of a machine that would deliver milk to his porch every morning. In the relatively short period since, milkmen have become extinct, because the method of distributing and buying milk, involving supermarkets, cars, deep freezers, throw-away containers, etc., has changed completely. Similarly, if flexitime and flexiplace continue to grow, making it possible to do one's work at home at one's own convenience, this will not only have enormous implications for physical planning, architecture, traffic, and pollution control, but will also impact heavily on the services. The changes possible in child-care patterns and services for the elderly alone are staggering, since many of the current facilities for such people arise due to inability of parents or adult children to be home with the person needing care, due to work commitments. Although, as the Solomons point out, there are people who prefer not to be home with their dependents, or not to be home at all, there are un- doubtedly many parents and adult children who would prefer home care for their dependents rather than institutionalization. The same magnitude of change, based on new systems, can be anticipated in leisure-time pat- terns, among others. Rate and possibilities of change. Although technological change prob- ably started before the invention of the wheel, the essential difference today is in the rate of change, which seems to be accelerating greatly. Insofar as information is concerned, an Organization for Economic and 15 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ICIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Cultural Development report says that information processing capacity is increasing tenfold in capability per unit cost every five years, and this makes information technology qualitatively different from past technical changes (Science and Technology Policy for the I980s). Insofar as knowledge, as distinct from information, is concerned, by the time the child born today graduates from college, the amount of knowledge in the world will be four times as great. By the time that same child is 50 years old, it will be 32 times as great, and 97% of everything known in the world will have been learned since the child was born (Hillard). In general, there have been more profound changes in the past four decades than there were in the previous six centuries (Shane and Sojka). Mensch holds that 80% of the industrial products and processes now sold in the markets will be phased out by 1990 and replaced by some alternatives; further, about 60% of the present industrial produce will be replaced during this decade by something still to be developed or to be specified. He predicts that the next new cluster of basic innovations will arrive about 1989. On a more piquant note, of the 136 inventions foreseen by George Orwell over 30 years ago, over a hundred are now practical? and 1984 has not yet arrived (Rada). Of course, such progress is uneven. Airplane travel and automobiles have hardly improved over the last 50 years. Except for some increase in speed, the former is less convenient and more expensive now than in the past; and the latter have only changed cosmetically. As compared to developments in computers, for example, planes and cars have practically stood still. If automobiles had developed at the same rate and distance as computers, you could buy a Rolls Royce for $2.75, get 3 million miles to the gallon, and have enough power to drive the Queen Elizabeth II (Evans). Finally, a word must be said about the "wolf" theory; that is, that immense changes have been predicted for the progress of technology and have not?as in the case of a workless world?come to pass. First, many of the changes have actually outdistanced previous predictions. Secondly, it is salutary to remember the end of the story of the boy who cried, "Wolf!" The wolf actually came (and the society was unprepared). Rada points out that to hold that because something has not happened it will never happen is analogous to saying that a natural resource cannot be depleted because it has not yet become so. Indeed, one can imagine one dinosaur reassuring another that there is nothing to worry about?there have always been predictions of their extinction, and they continue to exist. Changing Attitudes If the shift to services is like a tide, and the growth in productivity like a tidal wave, then changing attitudes toward work are like underground water?rarely seen, unless searched for with the proper instruments. In examining this area, one must distinguish between attitudes actually held, attitudes expressed, and attitudes assumed by others. It is possible that attitudes toward work have always been negative, else there would have been no need for the admonitions, demands, fables, 16 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 proverbs, and parables used to coerce people into working since Biblical times, at least. Diocletian had to require youngsters to continue in their fathers' occupations, since they were found to be looking for easier work (Kranzberg and Gies). Certainly in ancient agricultural societies there was no profit to be gained from producing a surplus, which would only rot (Macarov and Fradkin). Indeed, the desire to make work easier was the beginning of all technology, and the desire to work less the root of many social reforms. Luther's postulation that one served God by working hard placed a religious value on what had been an instrumental activity. Adam Smith's "invisible hand," which required each person to compete with all others in order to arrive at high quality and low prices for all, made non-working, or not working hard, an injury to one's fellows, and thus non-neighborly. Mercantilist philosophy, which put national wealth ahead of individual welfare, made working a patriotic duty. Finally, Freud's prescription for happiness?to love and to work?added an element of mental normality to the reasons for working. In every case, the belief that people should work hard arose from those other than the workers themselves. The so- cialization that ensued involved all the power of the family, the educational system, the church, the welfare system (Macarov, 1980), and?of course? the economic system. Hence, people have been taught (and often really believe) that not to work is to be immoral, a bad neighbor, unpatriotic, and somehow mentally disturbed. Consequently, it is no surprise that much survey research finds people reporting themselves as satisfied with their work-90% in Quinn and Staines' study, for example. But both Gutek and Haavio-Mannila warn that, in surveys, most people report themselves as satisfied with every aspect of their lives, even when subsequent probing or behavior indicate that this is probably not true. Deeper probing has led a number of re- searchers to the conclusion that attitudes toward work are best described as "resigned acceptance" or "fatalistic contentment" (Lasson), arrived at by a surrender process (Robinson), in which expectations from work are lowered. Garde11 finds that "the psychological rewards of work, in the form of fellowship and self-realization . . . can be considered satis- factory for no more than a minority of people." Bargal and Shamir, attempting to increase workers' satisfactions through the provision of occupational welfare workers, conclude that in many production and ser- vice organizations technological and economic considerations simply do not enable the levels of autonomy, variety, meaningfulness and signifi- cance of jobs to be enhanced. Workers' behavior supports the thesis of growing dissatisfaction at work. Although the reduced work time discussed above does not spring simply from workers's desires, it has certainly not come about over their objections. With the exception of some workaholics (Macholowitz), no one works more than they are paid for. In addition, about five million American workers are absent every working day (Bain; Leon). Finally, given the choice of three additional years of pay and full benefits if they retire at age 65, over 70% of American workers opt for retirement at 62, 17 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 on 70% benefits (Social Security Bulletin). This behavior does not add up to happiness at or with work. Efforts to humanize work (Macarov, 1981), as typified in the quality of Working Life movement, succeed at most in removing dissatisfactions (Bar-Gal), which?as Herzberg has pointed out? is not the same thing as adding satisfactions. Schrank has pointed out that most job redesign programs usually mean that the worker takes on additional tasks or re- sponsibilities without additional compensation?a dubious method of in- creasing satisfactions. Even Maslow's highest order motivation?self- actualization?has been called into question insofar as work is concerned (Macarov, 1976) and Fein holds that "It is only because workers choose not to find fulfillment in their work that they are able to function as healthy human beings . . . By rejecting involvement in work which cannot be fulfilling, workers save their sanity." Insofar as changing attitudes are concerned, there is both survey and behavioral evidence that workers are beginning to view their work as mainly instrumental, and no longer as moral, religious, patriotic, nor enriching. Yankelovich, who has been tracking worker attitudes for years, speaks of a "new breed" of worker, who demands intrinsic satisfactions. The Lordstown strike is often considered typical of young workers' re- jection of purely banal work. The student riots in Paris in 1964 included a poster reading: "Work makes you ugly." A T-shirt seen on an Atlanta street reads: "I've been working hard all my life, but somehow it seems longer." Numerous bumper stickers proclaim, "I'd rather be fishing (or golfing, skiing, or whatever)." Leficowitz has written about people who simply decided to stop working. The Institute for Social Research found that, between 1973 and 1977, reported work satisfactions dropped by large percentages?ranging from 11.3% to 43%?in all occupational groups studied. The National Opinion Research Center reports that during the past 20 years employee satisfaction in general has been decreasing. In addition, there has been a significant drop in the satisfaction of managers, once the most satisfied of all groups. Among managers, clerical employ- ees, and hourly workers, job satisfaction had declined to its lowest point ever. In a number of current studies of work patterns, younger workers do not work as hard as older workers do (Macarov, 1982). Finally, there is the growing amount of loafing on the job mentioned previously, which indicates that the work ethic is more often a statement of belief than a code of behavior. Cotter attributes changes in work attitudes to 12 sources, including rising expectations as encouraged by the media; distrust of those in power; the weakening of traditional institutions; and changing values, among others. Most of the research on worker satisfactions and their changes has been done in industrial settings, however. Very little is yet known concerning satisfactions in the services generally, or in specific services. Similarly, there has not yet been very much research on changes in satisfaction brought about by the introduction of technology, except concerning initial resistance to new methods, and worker/union reactions to methods of mechanization (Emspak). It is possible, as noted above, that contact with 18 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17 .";1A-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 customers, clients, or patients might have a considerable impact on sat- isfactions in either direction. Similarly, technology might make some jobs more interesting, while wiping out the interesting features of others, both in industry and in services. Much more research is needed in this whole area, including its wider implications. Varga, for example, found that amounts of free time are positively correlated with marital cohesion, while Solomon found that working at home, a la flexiplace, results in more intra-family tensions. Such areas of present attitudes and attitude changes require much more investigation. Changes in the World of Work The three changes in the world of work discussed here?the shift to services, the impact of technology, and changing attitudes?interact with each other, and with other changes, in a dynamic and unceasing manner. Each change reverberates throughout the others, resulting in further changes. Unfortunately, the implications of such changes, not only for the world of work, but for society as a whole, have not yet been given the study and emphasis that they deserve. As these trends continue?and there is little reason to believe that they will not?they will call for sweeping changes in both the value system and the structure-of present society. Insofar as jobs continue to be necessary or important, they will have to be accommodated more and more to the demands of nonwork activities in contrast to the past when nonwork activities were subordinated to the demands of work (Jamal, et al.). Insofar as human labor becomes unimportant and increasingly redundant, Western society will enter a transition period containing pain and grief for indi- viduals, families, communities, and regions, if they are not managed with foresight and judgement (Coates). As Hart says, "We must find a way to shift from the economy of the past to the economy of the future with as little pain and as much excitement as possible." This is the most compelling problem before social planners, economists, and everyone else concerned with the future of human society. References Albus, J.S., "Robots in the Workplace: The Key to a Prosperous Future," The Futurist, 17 (February, 1983):22-27. Anthony, P.D., The Ideology of Work. London: Tavistock, 1978. 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Mitchell, "The Nature of Structure in Nonwork," Relations lndustrielles, 37(1982):618-633. Jerusalem Post, January 16, 1983. p. 4. Kamerman, S.B., and A.J. Kahn, Social Services in the United States: Policies and Programs. Philadelphia: Temple University, 1976. Katzell, R.A., P. Bienstock, and P.H. Faerstein. A Guide to Worker Productivity Exper:ments in the United States 1971-1975. New York: New York University Press, 1977. Keefe, T., "Empathy: The Critical Skill," Social Work, 21(1976):10-14. Kendrick, J.W., "Productivity Trends and the Recent Slowdown," in W.E. Fellner (ed.), Contemporary Economic Problems. Washington: American Enterprise Insti- tute, 1979. Kraft, P., "The Industrialization of Computer Programming: From Programming to 'Software Revolution'," in A. Zimbalist (ed.), Case Studies in the Labor Process. 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Macarov, D., "Pursuing Leisure as a Moral Imperative," Leisure Information News- letter, 9(Winter, 1983):6-7. Macarov, D., and G. Fradkin, The Short Course in Development Training. Ramat Gan: Massada, 1973. Machlowitz, MM., Workaholics: Living With Them, Working With Them. New York: Mentor, 1981. Mckinlay, J.B., "The Limits of Human Service," Social Policy, 8(1978):29-34. Mark, J.A., "Measuring Productivity in Service Industries," Monthly Labor Review, I05(June 1982):3-8. Marland, S.P., Jr., Career Education: A Proposal for Reform. New York: McGraw- Hill, 1974. Mensch, GO., "The Co-Evolution of Technology and Work Organization," in G. Mensch and R.J. Niehaus (eds.), Work, Organizations and Technological Change. New York: Plenum, 1982. Michelotti, K., "Multiple Jobholding Rate Remained Unchanged in 1976," Monthly Labor Review, 100(June 1977):44-48. Miller, S.M., "The American Lower Classes: A Typological Approach," in A.B. Shostak and W. 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Rosow, J.M., "Productivity and People," in J.M. Rosow (ed.), Productivity: Pros- pects for Growth. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1981. Rowland, H.S., The Nurses' Almanac. Germantown, Md.: Aspen, 1978. Rubin, L.B-., Worlds of Pain: Life in the Working Class Family. New York: Basic Books, 1976. Salomon, I., and M. Salomon, "Telecommuting?The Employee's Perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change (in press). Schrank, R., Ten Thousand Working Days. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1979. Schrank, R., "Horse-Collar Blue-Collar Blues," Harvard Business Review, (May/ June 1981):133-138. Science and Technology Policy for the 1980s. Paris: OECD, 1981. Shamir, B., "Between Service and Servility: Role Conflict in Subordinate Service Roles," Human Relations, 33(1980):741-756. Shane, H.G. and G.A. Sojka, "John Elfreth Watkins, Jr.: Forgotten Genius of Fore- casting," The Futurist, 16(February 1982):9-12. 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Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1981. 23 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: [CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Urquhart, M., "The Services Industry: Is It Recession-Proof?" Monthly Labor Review, 104(October, I981):12? 18 . Varga, K., "Marital Cohesion as Reflected in Time-Budgets," in A. Szalai (ed.), The Use of Time. The Hague: Mouton, 1972. Walbank, M., "Effort in Motivated Work Behavior," in K.D. Duncan, M.M. Gru- , neberg and D. Wallis (eds.), Changes in Working Life. Chichester: Wiley, 1980. Wilson, J.0., After Affluence: Economics to Meet Human Needs. New York: Harper and Row, 1980. Work in America. Cambridge: Mass.: MIT Press, 1973. World of Work Report. Scarsdale: Work in America Institute, various issues. Yankelovich, D. New Rules: Searching for Fulfillment in a World Turned Upside Down. New York: Random House, 1981. Yearbook of Labor Statistics: Sixteenth Edition: Twenty-Sixth Edition: Thirty-Sixth Edition. Geneva: International Labour Organization, 1956, 1966, 1976, 1978. Zimbalist, A., "Technology and the Labor Process in the Printing Industry," in A. Zimbalist (ed.), Case Studies on the Labor Process. New York: Monthly Review Press, 1979. 24 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The Changing Nature of Work by Joseph F. Coates "What are you going to be when you grow up?" must stand high on the list of dumb questions asked of a child. The child cannot answer, for the three bases of a stable national pattern of work?technology, the work force, and social conditions?are all in flux. Information has become the dominant commodity in American society, making telecommunications and computer technologies the primary phys- ical instruments of fundamental social change. Since the changing tech- nological base drives the economy, it is the most unequivocally radicalizing element in the future of work. Today roughly 55% of the work force is in the business of generating, producing, storing, handling, transmitting, or regurgitating knowledge and information. Those involved include ev- eryone from researchers to clerks, from school teachers to white-collar workers, from lawyers, architects, or medical specialists to key-punch operators and word-processing technicians. Preparation for work in the information society must be different from what has gone before, for the new information technologies are not mere analogs of the carpenter's plane and the mechanic's wrench. The new vocations will not be limited to the physical manipulation of natural and synthetic substances, but will extend to the manipulation of man's own creations?of data, theory, and knowledge. The work world will change accordingly. The physical requirements of the workplace are already changing as we become captivated and even captured by electronic devices. We are finding, for instance, that people who work all day with CRTs (cathode ray tubes) may experience unpleasant side effects. Adapting the workplace to the worker needs more attention than it did in the industrial area. Work is moving to smaller locations, suburban locations, even to the home. Robotics and automation make it practical for a worker to move from the office to the factory floor and back. Robotics and automation are creating new occupations and new jobs in Joseph F. Coates is president of J.F. Coates, Inc., a futures research and policy analysis group located in Washington, D.C. This article was originally published in VocED, the journal of the American Vocational Association, and is reprinted here with their permission. 25 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 maintenance and manufacturing, but are eliminating many at the same time. Supply and demand imbalances are occurring in industries affected by telecommunications, increasing the need for training, retraining, and on-the-job training of the work force. These imbalances will also be felt in other sectors of the economy as the applications of new technologies spread. For the rise of telecommunications is not the only major technological upheaval shaping our future. New biotechnology and accommodations to the irreversible increase in the cost of petroleum will affect the when, where, and who of industrial processes, mining, and manufacturing. There will be new occupations in the fields of energy, materials, and genetics, altering the credentials and qualifications required of the work force. The biotechnological revolution springs from fundamental new under- standing of the genetic code that determines the inherited characteristics of microorganisms, plants, animals, and people. We are rapidly devel- oping the technology for manipulating genes. While the most obvious and urgent short-term effects of the genetic revolution will be in human health and disease, applied genetics will eventually transform forestry and ag- riculture and make substantial inroads into the manufacturing of chemicals and foods. There are already factories producing tens of thousands of tons of so- called "single-cell protein," which compares well in nutritive value with soybean and fish meal. The industrialization of microorganisms promises to produce many widely used industrial chemicals under milder conditions, with less waste and fewer dangerous by-products, and opens up the pos- U S. Labor Force in the Information Sector PERCENT OF U.S. LABOR FORCE 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 0 ? ? ? 00 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 1860 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 U.S. LABOR FORCE Agriculture Services: Information Occupations Industry Other Service Occupations 26 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 sibility of new bases for the chemical industry. Raw material could very well shift from petroleum to wood or other biomass. Such changes could alter the physical and chemical characteristics and hence the industrial handling of plastics, dyes, resins, and the myriad organic chemicals that are so central to the commerce of our civilization. Great change is also likely to occur in energy technology. The movement toward conservation is already having a wide and visible impact on the work force, with innovation in insulation and the application of passive solar energy. We can expect to see continuing development of modifi- cations in the design and operation of structures, instruments, devices, household goods, and all other things in our society that consume energy. Another broad flow of innovation will accompany the exploiting of new and unconventional energy sources. Getting usable energy from the wind and the sun, the oceans and the tides is, without question, workable. However, the extent to which the technology becomes practical and dots our countryside and coastlines with mechanisms to capture and use solar energy remains to be seen. Less speculative are vast new open-pit mines, coal gasification, and synthetic crude oil facilities. These changes in the fuel of our social metabolism are going to create new demands on and for skilled and professional workers, stimulate growth in many regions of the country, and create a wave of innovation only rivaled in history during the last quarter of the nineteenth century. Demography?the study of births, deaths, marriages, divorces, and other vital statistics?gives us additional valuable clues to the future of work. Such information reflects forces operating in society that will be felt throughout the economy, such as the size of the work force in a given decade. The baby-boom cohort is now contributing to the relative scarcity of available entry-level jobs. By the year 2000, however, as the baby- bust cohort grows up, there will be a shortage of entry-level workers. Meanwhile, the baby-boom cohort will be caught in an upward crush in middle management. There will be a surfeit of workers with the skills to move ahead who are thwarted by limited opportunities. This dark prospect assumes no change in the industrial and organiza- tional structure of work. But other social factors are of equal or greater salience. It appears that the inexorable tide of population changes will be accompanied by other tides of change that affect labor supply. Women's entry into the labor force on a parity with men?not as mere sources of secondary income, as ancillary workers or casual respondents to the shifts in the labor market?will increasingly change the makeup of the work force and materially alter our social ambience and expectations about work. Women are, of course, joined by blacks, browns, and the handicapped in a major workplace revolution?equality of access. That movement will be reinforced by robotization and the use of computers and telecommunications, all of which are indifferent to race, religion, national origin, or any other personal attributes. To an unprecedented degree, egalitarianism will enter the work site. Other changes in attitude will occur in response to the steady supply of new workers provided by immigration, which now accounts for 25% of the net population growth. Because the new immigrants are by and 27 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 large from non-European cultures, we can expect to see new expectations about work and new mores where people work. An unprecedented degree of independence among workers will be stim- ulated by the rise of the dual-income family. This independence will show up in pressure for improved quality of work life, worksite amenities, shifting work schedules, different management styles, and wider worker participation in decisions. The prevalence of the dual-income family will promote job-sharing and off-and-on work. It may tend to stabilize pop- ulation in cities and reduce migration. With greater discretionary income and less time, the dual-income family will demand more services or tech- nological solutions to service needs. Children in such families will become more valuable commodities simply by being fewer in number, and will be members of smaller, more prosperous households. (On the other hand, the increasing numbers of single-parent families will be economically and socially stressed. Business and industry will have to respond to these stresses.) The continuing flow of survey research on work and workers suggests two things of central importance. First, the desire to work is not dying, fading, or in any sense being rejected. Second, workers' aspirations are shifting. The growth of participation, the need for autonomy, the interest of labor and management in higher quality, the search for satisfaction in work?these are symptoms of a deep-seated change in public attitudes throughout American society. In 1979, a Gallup poll found some 61% of male workers reporting that they would continue to work even if they did not have to, although 21% would only work part-time. Only 10% of the male workers surveyed said they would stop working if they could. Of equal interest, 81% said they would prefer a difficult job to an unchallenging job. The Gallup polls and many other sources show that new workers want interesting jobs, they want opportunity, they want fair treatment, and they want their work to fit a total life pattern. According to one survey, 68% of workers want interesting jobs, 45% want higher salaries, 42% want security, and 20% want work with a sense of social mission. Michael Maccoby, in a ground-breaking work on the value system in corporate America, has highlighted the likelihood that workers of the future will demand of business and industry jobs that not only lead to career advancement, but provide work that is personally satisfying. Lester Thu- row, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, devas- tatingly analyzes and deplores today's commonly accepted value system, which sees work as a series of challenges oriented around a zero-sum mentality?I win, you lose; you win, I lose. Other thinkers, among them Clare Graves, have pointed out that new values in American society are creating legions of workers who reject the materialistic, independent, conquest model of the world and tend to focus on love, affection, com- munity, and cooperation. A smaller but perhaps more important group in the long run is concerned with understanding the world, with existence, and with acceptance. These indications of changing values interact with our changing tech- nological base. Recent research on why people buy microcomputers for 28 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 use at home shows that they do so for reasons that have surprisingly little relationship to keeping bank records and kitchen recipes. People buy microcomputers to achieve a sense of autonomy and control. They want this same sense at work. The American worker is striving to increase opportunities for personal autonomy and work-related decision-making. One sees this in the attempt of many companies to introduce the quality circle and the work team. It is also visible in the growth of the "appropriate technology" movement, which favors simple technologies that employ human labor rather than capital equipment. Technological advance is taking place in concert with these new developments and with the lively current interest in social independence and local governance. One consequence is that traditional social and work-related distinctions are rapidly blurring. Among these are the distinctions between work and leisure, between white-collar and blue- collar workers, between vocational and non-vocational education, and between professional and sub-professional work. We are witnessing a rapid technological transformation that contributes to the growing complexity of society at large. With literally tens of thou- sands of discrete occupations possible, youth coming on the work scene can have only an extremely limited perception of what work is like. The new terms sound like magic; they have few connotations. What does it mean to work as a fiber optics technician, a robot attendant, an electro- myography technician, or a gene splicer? Surely few children today can specify what they are going to be when they grow up. The dominant message of the changing nature of work is that an in- creasingly greater percentage of Americans will, over a lifetime, hold a succession of different jobs, even different careers, many flowing one into the other, but others involving substantial disruption and change. Old technologies will become obsolete and new ones will have to be mastered. Old skills will be dropped and new ones learned. Old attitudes will yield to new ones. Resources Bell, Daniel. The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting. New York: Basic Books, 1973. Graves, Clare W. "Human Nature Prepares for a Momentous Leap." THE FUTURIST (April 1974), pp. 72-85. Maccoby, Michael. The Gamesman: The New Corporate Leaders. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1976. Thurow, Lester C. The Zero-Sum Society: Distribution and the Possibilities for Eco- nomic Change. New York: Penguin, 1981. 29 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Robots and the Future of Work by Edmund Byrne The Automation Revolution, prophesied from the outset of the Industrial Revolution' and prematurely announced following development of the computer after World War 11,2 is now on the verge of realization, thanks to the discovery and inexpensive mass production of compact and versatile microprocessors that make possible so-called "smart" robots and other components of automated assembly systems. First exploited by the Jap- anese, robotization is likely to be (perhaps along with biotechnology) the single most significant characteristic of technological history in the 1980s. And when the decade is over, the configuration of human work will have been radically transformed, along with the technology that undergirds and now increasingly is replacing it. In a word, many humans are going to lose their jobs. Whether they will find others that need doing or that they are qualified to do is a very hard question to answer. But it is one that society will be required to answer; and the answer that society comes up with will determine in a very fundamental way the future of the human condition.3 As of now, however, there is no adequate plan for a social equivalent of Isaac Asi- mov's third law of robotics, namely, that a robot should never harm a human. Robots will harm humans. They are doing so already. Not by crudely striking a blow to the head, but just by being able to do better what humans have been doing poorly by default. In the process, of course, robots will be sparing humans a lot of pain, but the pain associated with sweat on the brow is as nothing compared to the pain of being unemployed and unemployable. And that, quite clearly, is just what lies ahead for people in all parts of the world, especially in developed nations. Questions to be considered, then, are the following. What is a robot? What can robots do? What impact will robots have on human work? And what, if anything, should humans do about "keeping robots in their place"? What Is a Robot There are three definitions of the word robot, only two of which are Edmund Byrne is professor and chairman of the Department of Philosophy, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana. 30 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 relevant here. The most common (in popular usage as well as in science fiction) is that of a manufactured apparatus that has a humanoid appearance and exercises humanlike functions well enough to be considered human in a given context. There are, in fact, robots of this type in use, e.g., to direct pedestrian and/or vehicular traffic.4 But the presence or absence of humanlike features is of no importance in the discussion that follows. A second definition of the word robot is a programmable manipulator of versatile automation components. This is the usage generally accepted by industry people. A third and considerably narrower definition, favored by research and development people, is an artificial intelligence machine with humanlike functions. Programmable automation manipulators have been around for decades. "AI" machines are only now beginning to make their appearance but are expected to mushroom in the decade ahead. It is important but not always easy to determine which definition is being invoked by a writer or speaker on the subject, especially when one is trying to count the number of robots in a plant or industry, in a particular country (e.g., Japan), or in the world. Unless noted otherwise, I shall take "robot" in the broader sense as including all programmable auto- mation manipulators. Robots are distinguishable with regard to degrees of freedom, method of articulation, control of motion, or method of actuation. Three degrees of freedom are required to position an object in space, three more to orient the object in any direction (a minimum for a "general-purpose manipu- lator"). Robot joints may swivel ("polar"), slide ("cartesian"), or com- bine these two methods ("cylindrical"). Only a terminal point is specified in point-to-point control; the precise path and the velocity of the entire movement are determined by continuous-path control. Pneumatic actuation of a robot is cheap and simple but adequate only for point-to-point op- erations. Electric actuation is simple to install and easy to maintain; a hydraulic system yields better dynamic performance and power-to-weight ratio. Jasia Reichardt identifies nine levels of automation (she calls them "stages, or degrees"), with robots entering the scene on the fifth level. If the task to be performed is bending a pipe and some tool is employed in the process, the pre-robotic tool might be (1) a hand tool, (2) a power tool, (3) power machinery under human control, (4) powered machinery executing a programmed sequence of operations without variation. A robotic tool bending a pipe might be (5) pre-programmed only for that task as to sequence of and length of time between operations; (6) provided with several programs stored and selected automatically (a variable se- quence robot), (7) controlled by means of programs stored in a large memory device and subject to change automatically (continuous-path ro- bots with servomechanisms), (8) a computer-aided manufacturing system that activates the motors of numerically controlled robots by means of programs stored on punched paper tape, or (9) "blue collar" or "smart" or "intelligent" robots with tactile and visual capabilities. Only the latter, which utilize only recently feasible "artificial intelligence," are consid- ered true robots by experts in this field. According to one estimate, there are some 15,000 robots installed around 31 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 the world, about half of which are in Japan and a fourth in the United States.5 In second place is the Soviet Union, where there are now some 6-7,000 units, but most of these are technologically retarded, having only 3-4 axes of movement.6 Far more important for the future of work in the world are projections for the growth of robot usage in the decades ahead. In the next five years the Russians plan to add 40,000 additional units, and during the five years thereafter they will be installing sensory robots. One hundred and fifty companies in Japan produced robots (five times as many as in the United States) at a level of $400 million in 1980, and expect to be producing at a level of $2.2 billion in 1985, $4.5 billion in 1990.7 In the United States, robot production was at a level of $50 million/year in 1981, but may expand to $250 billion over the next 20 years.8 The key factor in the upcoming expansion of robot production and use is not the quantity of dollars or units but the quality, that is, the capabilities, of the units to be produced. As Reichardt observes, "One has to prepare and present data in a way in which a robot can use them, which means that the cost of equipping a factory for robot operation may be ten times the cost of the robots themselves. The need exists, therefore, to design robots capable of working in moderate disorder, with some ability to recognize colors, shadows, markings, and textures.'9 This challenge is now beginning to be met by artificial intelligence, which utilizes increasingly sophisticated microelectronic technology to solve problems heuristically. To this end, robots must have "sensory" capability, in varying degrees depending on the task, both in regard to "touch" and in regard to "vision," and both are now becoming tech- nologically and economically feasible. A Mitsubishi robot, for example, "knows" when it has reached the correct object on a workbench by comparing images of it in two television cameras, one mounted on the robot's hand and the other overlooking the workbench. A Hitachi robot is so touch-sensitive that it can insert a piston into a cylinder with a clearance of 20 microns in three seconds. Selective choice and evaluation of parts will be coming soon. Still in the future is a "thinking" robot that when shown what to do will establish the most efficient way of doing it. What Impact Will Robots Have on the Work Force? What impact is all this likely to have on the human work force? The answer to this question is all too simple: humans will be rendered super- fluous and displaced. This much is fairly certain. All that remains uncertain is the scope of the displacement. But there are already indications that it will soon be extensive and will eventually be massive. In the period 1990-2000, according to one projection, robots and au- tomated systems will be producing half of all manufactured goods and, as a result, up to one-quarter of the factory work force may be dislodged.'' That this will come about seems an inevitable outcome of the belief common among industrialists that it will be cost effective in the long run and for that very reason is a necessary condition for staying competitive in the industries affected. Estimates vary as to just how much less ex- 32 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 pensive it may be to use robots rather than humans. As one writer puts it, a Japanese robot in automotive production can do at $5.50/hr. what a UAW worker does for $18.10/hr. (wages and fringes).12 Other factors, including not only OPEC but also the almost total un- willingness of U.S. auto manufacturers to deviate from 60-year-old pro- duction methods, have helped bring about the current disarray, if not imminent disappearance, of the U.S. auto industry. But robotics, if ever really taken seriously, might make a difference. At least, such is the impression of those who still believe that an old dinosaur can be taught new tricks. And this belief is quite enough to put the automotive work force on notice. Fiat's Robogate system boosted production 15% in 1978, we are re- minded, but replaced few workers. But with sensory robots the Italian manufacturer could, it is estimated, cut manpower 90% before 1990.13 This lesson has not been lost on General Motors, which will be spending $200 million by 1983 to install 800 robots on 14 assembly lines in 7 of its plants in Italy. And by 1990, GM will have invested $1 billion in 13,000 robots to paint, load/unload machines, and assemble components, with the help of Robogate, thereby cutting labor costs by an estimated 70% and the labor force by 50% just in the next nine years.14 However impressive these numbers may be in a vacuum, they may well be too little too late: from its present total of 450 robots, GM hopes to expand to 5,000 by 1985 and to 13,000 by 1990?but the Japanese already have 7,000 in place! And they have no more intention of yielding the lead in robotics than in electronics in general. MITI, the quasi-governmental research arm of Japanese industry, plans to spend $140 million over a seven-year period to develop smart robots to assemble an entire product, such as an auto- mobile, beginning as early as 1983. With this new system, one could effect changeover simply by changing the system's software. By 1985, Hitachi hopes to be using robots with visual and tactile sensors for 60% of its assembly operations. And three major Japanese companies are work- ing on a robot that will be able to position a component within four- hundredths of an inch. One of these companies, Fujitsu Fanuc Ltd., has opened a $38 million plant to produce other robots and computerized tools automatically, using robots, numerically controlled machine tools, and only one shift of 100 human workers to assemble robot-made parts (until, that is, robots start doing even that).15 By comparison to the Japanese commitment to robotics, American auto makers are in a technological feudal age. But even belatedly introduced technology is having an effect on the work force. Take the example of the PUMA (programmable universal machine for assembly), a $20,000 robot arm developed by GM and Unimation. By 1990, GM expects to be using 5,000 of these in assembly work and 4,000 to load/unload machines, thereby bumping 50% of assembly-line laborers.16 Another industry on the verge of transformation by robotics is that of consumer appliances, which in the United States is dominated by General Electric. GE had two robots in 1978, added 26 more in 1979, and may be using 1,000 by the end of this decade. The company spent over $15 million in 1980 for 47 new robots expected to save $2.6 million/year in 33 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 labor and materials. So far, displaced assembly workers have been trans- ferred, e.g., to robot maintenance, with work-force reduction being limited to attrition. 17 For example, GE's dishwasher plant in Louisville, Kentucky, is 60% automated, but workers are free to stop the line at key points to prevent defects from being built in. But the technology for full-scale automation, including a robotic "eye" and a CAD/CAM (computer-aided design and manufacture) system, has been under development.18 And once this is in place, reduction in work force will follow. In fact, GE plans to robotize as many as half of its 37,000 assembly-line jobs to achieve 6% per year improvement in productivity.I9 Nor does the company really have much choice in the matter because of new competition from Japanese manufacturers such as Sanyo, which has opened an automated refrigerator plant on the West Coast and others in Tennessee, Arkansas, and other states. GE's in-house robotization agenda is, however, only the tip of the iceberg. GE is now bent on supplying robots and other automation equip- ment to other manufacturers. To this end, the company has acquired licenses to use robotics technology developed by Italy's Digital Electronic Automation, Japan's Hitachi, and most recently, Volkswagenwerk. Ac- cording to reports, the arrangement with VW will authorize GE to build five of that company's robot models and sell them worldwide. These additions will give GE a total of 12 models, including one capable of handling components weighing more than 200 pounds, which will be of interest to the automotive, aerospace, and heavy equipment industries.20 Nor is GE going to be lonesome in the robot marketplace. In addition to smaller companies such as Cincinnati Milacron and Unimation, which turn out $30-40 million worth of robots a year, and Automatrix, the race for what could be a $25 billion market by 1990 has been joined by such giants as Digital Equipment, IBM, and Texas Instruments. One result of this expanded interest is that the cost of a $50,000 robot is expected to drop to $10,000 by the end of the decade. And the result of all these factors may be, according to one projection, that "smart robots could displace 65% to 75% or more of today's factory work force." Be that as it may, there are customers for robots almost literally waiting in line for delivery. A new Robotics Division at Westinghouse, for ex- ample, has a mandate to robotize "any and all manufacturing areas." And toward this end the company, like others around the country, has been doing a feasibility study (on NSF money) of automated batch-as- sembly of 450 different versions of eight different fractional-horsepower motors at a rate of 1 million units/year. Cybotech, a joint venture between Renault and Ransberg Corporation, an Indianapolis-based company, has been providing robots on a turnkey basis, if desired, to such diverse companies as General Motors, Jeep Corporation, Lockheed, and Cater- pillar Tractor, with Renault spending $6.2 million/year on visual R&D and Cybotech $2.5 million/year on sensile/tactile technology.2I More gen- erally, it is estimated that U.S. industry will more than triple its 1981 automation investments to $5 billion in 1985, this amount to be divided about equally between computer-aided design (CAD) and such devices as minicomputers, numerical controls, programmable controls, and robots.22 34 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Thanks to this new technology, especially microcomputers and so-called "friendly" (ordinary language) software, production programs can be changed right on the factory floor for customized batch production in runs of less than 50 units. And this, in turn, means perhaps a 30% decrease in use of workers, commonly by introducing an unmanned third shift? what in German is called the ghost shift ("die Geisterschicht"). The Japanese, however, are prepared to go this stunt one better: flexible man- ufacturing complex (FMC), a $60 million prototype of which is now in place, with the expectation that 20% of Japan's total factory output will be FMC'd by 1985. What FMC involves is five fully automatic manu- facturing operations all interconnected and controlled by a hierarchy of computers, with humans on hand only as safety overseers of lasers used for treating and machining. As these examples have suggested, the impact of the "new wave" of automation on blue-collar unions may turn out to be absolutely devastating. The United Auto Workers expect to lose 200,000 of their 1 million mem- bers between 1978 and 1990. The IUE, the International Association of Machinists, and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers will also be hard hit. But so also will white-collar personnel?possibly as many as 38 million of the present 50 million white-collar jobs may be affected, just as automation has already reduced employment in the U.S. Postal Service from 744,000 in 1970 to 677,000 in 1981: a 10% reduction. At racetracks, window betting is being taken over by an automated "sell- pay" system that shortens line, saves 10-50% on costs of operation, and eliminates jobs. Similarly, when U.S. air traffic controllers went on strike in 1981, their complaint about job stress was, if anything, counterprod- uctive. For the U.S. government is engaged in a 10-year $8.5 billion project to reduce the need for technicians and controllers by one-third with an automated ATC system that would require only one rather than three humans per display screen, thus allegedly saving $6.7 billion in the 1980s and over $17 billion in the 1990s.23 Examples such as these could be multiplied, but the point is clear: a very significant number of jobs are on the block in the decade ahead, not only in the United States but in other countries as well. If it is any consolation, the traumas of transition are at least as likely in Western Europe.24 And in Japan, the world's leader in automation, it may well prove to be catastrophic. In that country, workers in manufacturing dropped from 14.4 million in 1973 to 13.7 million in 1980. Six million workers in cottage industries still represent 81% of Japan's 55.4 million workers, but these are being replaced by more reliable robots. The country has need of 745,000 computer software engineers, but it now has less than 100,000. Even jobs available as robot tenders are difficult to fill because the Japanese are not accustomed to working on any but the normal daytime shift. The conclusion of a government study that the impact of microelectronics on employment is not serious is much criticized; but the government is doing little to create new jobs.' Nor is this a problem only in developed coun- tries. As is well known, electronics manufacturers have in years past gone to places such as South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore for low-level assembly operations. But computer-controlled assembly in the 35 , Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: .CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 United States and Japan is now competitive with labor-intensive production elsewhere, and the result may be the end of an era for these developing Asian countries. What is suggested by all these details is that, as has occurred before in history, the human cost of progress may be excruciatingly high. That there will in time be protests and demonstrations, if not worse, seems inevitable. But in this instance, unlike that of popular protest against nuclear power plants, the economics (if the "experts" can be believed) would oppose rather than support the sentiments of the protesters. However, as is com- monly the case, only internal costs are being figured, not the external costs, direct and indirect, that spill over onto society in the wake of a technological upheaval of the magnitude that lies ahead. So, as our own federal government prepares to abandon CETA and other relevant and timely social service programs, and state governments do little to fill the vacuum, we in the United States are left with little reason to gloat over the plight of the Japanese worker. What Can We Do About Displaced Workers? What possible remedies are there for the severe dislocations that this inevitable revolution is bringing over the horizon? The obvious answer, namely, that anyone laid off should get another job, seems especially cynical at a time of high unemployment. In addition, the factor of high interest rates intensifies the trauma of relocation, if that is required. Nor can an unskilled laborer count on finding employment even if willing to move. Even those who are still at work on assembly lines may find that computers are being used to subject them to time-study; and should they decide to strike in protest, they may become the victims of what one UAW official calls "technological scabbing." A short-term solution, of course, is to find ways to pace the introduction of automation, regulate the use of time-study, and participate in decision-making with regard to new technological systems on the basis of appropriate and adequate data. Moreover, if unions want to protect their members, they need to have more control over job skills required by the new computer-based tech- nology, e.g., diagnosis of problems by an electrician; programming and editing of numerical control tapes, robots, and all other "programmable automation," including work on machines that are leased or under war- ranty; and, by way of corollary, adequate training for performance of such jobs. Unfortunately, outside of a few countries, notably in Scandanavia, presently available retraining programs are neither adequate nor effective to deal with the anticipated impact of robotics. Above and beyond the comparatively short-term needs for programs to assist displaced workers, there is an endemic long-term need to rethink and restructure our educational system to provide the next generation of workers with the kinds of skills they must have to find employment in the decades ahead. Not that every student needs to become adept at mi- croelectronics or biogenetics or whatever. But the socioeconomic con- sequences of the coming shift in technology require us to anticipate and prepare for a radically different society that we dare not approach behind 36 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 a veil of ignorance. As we contemplate this profound challenge, we will look in vain for ethical theories that can guide our search for responsible decisions?unless one is prepared to admit that "might makes right" is an ethical theory. A duty-based search for the absolutely right course of action to pursue disintegrates in the presence of complexities beyond the reach of assertions about duty. In a word, the standard objections on the basis of competing claims and correlative duties simply apply a fortiori. Which workers should be given preference when layoffs are required? Those with seniority or those with protected group status, e.g., women or minorities? To whom are persons on various levels of management more responsible?investors, customers, suppliers, employers, or the community or communities in which their plants are located? Or perhaps the governmental entities that have favored the company with direct or indirect subsidies? What import should or can be given to individuals who would be seriously affected by a given decision but who are represented by no organizational structure that has direct input into or on the level of the relevant decision-making process? Even assuming the existence of an effective world government, which part of the world's population should be favored, and on the basis of what considerations? Developed or de- veloping nations? One developed nation more than another? The country with the largest percentage of unemployed, or the largest number of un- employed, or the fewest robots? Or, just to make the madness complete, might robots themselves have rights, or even rights prior to those of humans?some humans, or all humans? What is lacking is nothing less than the Marxist ideal of an international proletariat. Language barriers aside, this sort of shared community of interest is not likely to come about until the plight of the economically dispensable electronics worker in Asia and that of the robot-replaced automotive worker in Detroit are seen to be interrelated and equally im- portant. Avowed Communists have failed to show that such solidarity is attainable without exploitation. But non-Communists, or capitalists, have done little better. That does not mean, however, that it is an ideal beyond human capability. Notes I. See Langdon B. Winner, Autonomous Technology, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1977; John Cohen, Human Robots in Myth and Science, New York: Allen & Unwin, 1967. 2. See George Terborgh, Automation Hysteria, New York: Norton, 1966; Henry Elsner, Jr., Technocrats: Prophets of Automation, New York: Syracuse Univ. Press, 1967. 3. See Alvin Toffler, The Third Wave, New York: Morrow, 1980; G. Harry Stine, The Third Industrial Revolution, New York: Putnam, 1975. 4. Jasia Reichardt, Robots: Fact, Fiction, and Prediction, New York: Penguin, 1978, p. 120 (see also for discussion of the definition of a robot). 5. Desmond Smith, "The Robots (Beep, Click) Are Coming," Pan Am Clipper, April 1981; Ed Janicki, "Is There a Robot in Your Future?" The Indianapolis Star Magazine, Nov. 22, 1981. 6. "Russian Robots Run to Catch Up," Business Week, August 17, 1981. 37 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 7. "The Push for Dominance in Robotics Gains Momentum," Business Week, December 14, 1981. 8. Smith, op cit. See also Metalworkers and New Technology: Results of IMF Questionnaire on Industrial Robots, Geneva, Switzerland: IMF Document 81-13, 1981, pp. 37-38. 9. Reichardt, op cit. p. 138. 10. "Racing to Breed the Next Generation," Business Week, June 9, 1980. 11. "High Technology: Wave of the future or a market flash in the pan?" Business Week, November 10, 1980 (chart on "The Coming Impact of Microelectronics"). 12. Responding to a survey conducted by Carnegie-Mellon University graduate students, users and prospective users of robots "overwhelmingly ranked efforts to reduce labor cost as their main motivation for installing robots. Current trade journal articles also give this as the primary motivation." The Impacts of Robotics on the Workforce and Workplace, Department of Engineering and Public Policy and De- partment of Humanities and Social Science, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 1981. 13. "Racing to Breed the Next Generation," op. cit., 76. 14. "GM's Ambitious Plan to Employ Robots," Business Week, March 16, 1981. 15. "Fanuc Edges Closer to a Robot-Run Plant," Business Week, November 24, 1980. See also David Fleischer, "Robot-Built Robots," Science Digest, Dec. 1981. 16. GM's Ambitious Plan . . . ," op. cit.; Harley Shaiken, "The Brave New World of Work in Auto," In These Times, September 19-25, 1979. 17. "How Robots are Cutting Costs for GE," Business Week, June 9, 1980. 18. "General Electric: The Financial Wizards Switch Back to Technology," Busi- ness Week, March 16, 1981. 19. "Rotots Join the Labor Force," Business Week, June 9, 1980. 20. "GE Is About to Take a Big Step in Robotics," Business Week, March 8, 1982. 21. Personal communication, Geary Soska, Director of Application Engineering, Cybotech, Indianapolis, Indiana. 22. "The Speedup in Automation," Business Week, August 3, 1981. 23. "Revamping Air Traffic Control," Business Week, January 18, 1982. 24. Habib Boulares and Francoise Hubscher, "La Technologie et Nous," Jeune Afrigue, August 13 and 20, 1980. 25. "A Changing Work Force Poses Challenges," Business Week Special Issue: Japan's Strategy for the 80's, December 14, 1981. 38 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Nine Paradoxes for the 1990s by Robert M. Fulmer Futurists come in varying degrees of optimism and pessimism. One group, known as the "Neo-Malthusians," anticipates a world that is grow- ing dirtier, drier, more crowded, and more quarrelsome. They see the stark realities of famine, poverty, totalitarianism, and terrorism becoming a daily reality for billions of people. On the other hand, the "Super Optimists" see astonishing advances in medicine, agriculture, information technology, and space exploration that may be able to delay the aging process, forestall death, overcome cancer, provide food from the oceans, and transport large loads of passengers in space vehicles to all corners of the earth and beyond. As the world grows in size and complexity, it becomes more and more difficult for a single individual to assimilate all of the changes that are confronting us. A natural reaction is to focus on one single mind-set and use that as a reference point for the changes that occur. The focus of this article is to suggest that managers assess both sides of contrasting trends that seem to be emerging. With particular emphasis on changes that will be affecting the world of work and workers, I will identify and discuss nine paradoxes of the 1990s. Paradox I. The Decline of Traditional Incentives, with Increased Popularity of Financially Rewarding Careers Many managers complain, "People just aren't willing to work as hard as they used to. The work ethic no longer exists." In reality, the incentives that have traditionally encouraged people to work hard have become less effective. These inducements include money, fear, and other techniques that don't depend on motivation for productivity. According to Daniel Yankelovich, these traditional incentives still work for 56% of the U.S. work force. They mean nothing, however, to the other (primarily younger) 44% of contemporary workers. Basically, the work force can be divided into the following groups: ? 19%?older dedicated workers who want to make a contribution. Robert M. Fulmer is director of management programs, Graduate School of Business Administration, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia. 39 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ICIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 ? 22%?habitual workers who are older, in lower-level jobs, and who want job security. ? 15%?young, ambitious go-getters who are motivated by money and the opportunity to get ahead. ? 17%?young, middle-managers, highly educated professionals who are more interested in challenge and responsibility than traditional incentives. ? 27%?alienated, turned off, poorly educated, low-income workers who are not motivated at all. Unfortunately, this group seems to be growing. While traditional incentives seem to be losing some of their clout, financially-oriented professions are increasing in popularity. College en- rollments in liberal arts and humanities are declining dramatically. Con- currently, enrollments in business, engineering, and preprofessional programs are experiencing record growth. Since 1964, the number of MBA graduates produced annually has risen by 900%. Since 1971, the number of indi- viduals taking the Test for Advanced Study in Management has risen from 83,915 to 212,500. Clearly, the prospect of a financially rewarding career is a stimulus to many individuals who are currently enrolled in colleges. In some instances, these "practical-minded" students would have preferred to major in En- glish, history, or sociology, but their assessment of the marketplace in- dicates that this could be a pleasant but unproductive choice. This may also suggest that the value systems of the emerging college graduate may allow for more flexibility than was true in the past. Idealism is tempered with a sense of practical reality. Challenge and responsibility will continue to be key watchwords, but money is important too. These "new workers" will be dissatisfied if financial rewards are not forthcoming; however, they will probably not stay in a dead-end job or accept arbitrary transfers unless there is more than money to lure them to new assignments. Paradox II. Increased Competition for Promotions, But More Flexibility in Work Positions By 1990, more than half of the labor force will be between the ages of 25 and 44. By 2000, the baby-boom generation will be between 35 and 55. This means increased competition for available promotions. In the 1960s, there were about 10 workers who competed for each middle- management position. By the end of this decade, the ratio will have doubled. The reasons for this promotion crunch are quite simple. First and foremost is the maturing of the baby-boom group (born between 1945 and 1965) as candidates for management positions. This will be compounded by deferred retirement of present managers who will stay on their jobs longer because of a persistent inflation problem. These two factors will be further aggravated by a generally slow economic growth rate throughout this decade (probably two to three percent per year), which will limit the creation of new management positions. Roy Amara, president of the In- stitute for the Future, predicts that new management structures will be 40 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 required to accommodate this unprecedented number of potential man- agers. "A flattening of organizational pyramids, creation of smaller, au- tonomous work groups, development of "working manager" positions, job design and restructuring . . . these are some of the ways to ease the expected crunch." With this kind of competition for advancement, we might conclude that organizations will be less accommodating of special employee interests or demands than has been true in the past. Just the opposite will actually occur. At the lower end of the organizational pyramid, there will be a shrinking supply of entry-level workers. This group will grow during the 1980s at less than one-half the rate of the 1970s. A potential shortfall of entry-level applicants will probably begin in the late 1980s. The impact of a rapid decline in fertility rates since the mid 1960s will be the major contributing factor. Because so many women are already working, labor-force participation among female workers will not continue to grow as dramatically. Finally, the rising expectations of entry-level workers will contribute to the need for greater flexibility. In order to meet the demand for entry-level positions, organizations will allow more work- ers to schedule their own hours under flextime. Many workers will prob- ably hold two jobs or go to college on a part-time basis. Already the need for lifetime learning is a generally accepted principle. Moreover, the number of moonlighters increased almost 20% during the 1970s, and the number of women holding multiple jobs doubled. In The Third Wave, Alvin Toffler describes the emerging trend of the "cottage office." Increasing numbers of people will be contracting with organizations to complete work in their own homes. It could be artwork for an advertising campaign, instructional materials for a training program, or software packages. The worker gains the advantage of flexibility and reduced commuting expenses while the company eliminates the overhead commitment, fringe benefits, and additional "extras" associated with full- time employees. This work "decentralization" will continue to pick up momentum throughout the decade. The growth of portable computers, which can be hooked up to telephone lines and television sets to retrieve data and file reports, will hasten this move. Demand for "office space" in future houses and apartments will experience significant growth. Corporations will not eliminate their headquarters locations, but the need for them to "ware- house" large groups of workers in a single building will decline. In Megatrends, John Naisbitt argues that the "High Touch" corollary of High Tech will keep the electronic cottage from gaining widespread ac- ceptance. Yet, what could be higher touch than parents being able to work in close proximity to their young children. And, of course, the stimulation of being around co-workers can be achieved by a couple of days per week in the office rather than a daily commute. Over all, companies will become even more accommodating to elim- inate the regimentation and boredom associated with entry-level positions. At the same time, increased competition for managerial promotions will be quite intense. Although these jobs will be more demanding than those 41 , Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 at the lower levels of an organization, they will be in great demand because of their scarcity and the economic rewards associated with promotions. Paradox Ill. Increased Financial Pressures, Yet More Superaffluent Families In the 1970s energy prices rose 165%, shelter 160%, medical care 111%, and food 115% in the United States. During the same period, median family income grew only 107%. The Labor Department reported that real hourly compensation for 1980 was at the same level as in the third quarter of 1972. Not much real progress has been made since. In summary, during the remainder of this century, real-income growth will probably exceed the 1970s, but it will not grow as fast as it did during the 1950s and 1960s. An increase of about 50% in real family income between 1980 and 2000 seems likely. In 1980, the price of the average house on today's market was $77,600. If inflation averages 10% in this decade, by 1995 the average house will cost $314,000. Coping with inflation became a national pastime during the late 1970s. It will doubtless enjoy a comeback in popularity. The four major strategies that have been used to meet the challenge are more workers per family, lower savings, increasing debt, and home equity. Moonlighting, exhaustion, persistent worry, and fighting over money share the spotlight that shines through the picture window of many middle- American homes. Workers dream of upper mobility, affluence, and getting ahead but, in reality, find themselves skipping their annual physical checkup, cashing in insurance policies, and quibbling with children about allow- ances. Epidemic advances in alcoholism, drug addiction, divorce, and early heart attack are not unrelated to financial pressures created by this desperate race to hold on to the good life. Yet, the picture is not totally bleak. Currently, every 30 minutes, another dozen people will enter the 50% tax bracket. In 1980, over 2.3 million Americans discovered the good news and the bad news associated with qualifying for this painful honor. By 1995, approximately 40% of all families will be earning more than $32,500 in 1983 dollars; about 8% will be "superaffluent"?earning more than $65,000 per year. As suggested above, the two-income household, along with an emphasis on fewer children, has been one of the most effective ways of preserving living standards. Demand is still high for luxury items such as expensive cars, European vacations, and costly jewelry. In addition to the extremes of large groups of individuals struggling to make ends meet and the rapid growth of the superaffluents, there may also be an acceleration of the "rags-to-riches rollercoaster." The same individual may go through several stages of relative poverty and affluence. For example, young people today typically come from families that are wealthier than was true a generation ago. When they leave home and establish their own independence, the high cost of housing and energy often forces them into a period of relative poverty. When they join forces to create a two-income family, both living standards rise dramatically. If that relationship fails to survive (which is the case with about 40%), both 42 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 partners are reduced to another round of struggle. This struggle can also come about merely because of the high cost of educating and caring for children. Eventually, however, most people will rear their children, work out living arrangements, and enjoy advanced middle-age with a rediscov- ered joy of discretionary income. Paradox IV: The Increased Importance of Family, Yet More Marriage Failures The trends that will mark the change in the family emphasis are already apparent. During the past decade, the number of marriages increased 7.3%. The number of divorces increased 65.3%, and the number of unmarried couples living together increased 157.4%. The number of children living with one parent grew by 40.1%. As has already been indicated, families are assuming greater importance as far as financial security is concerned. Sociologist Charles Westoff predicts an expansion of communal living as unrelated people of all age levels band together to reduce housing costs. By the year 2000, almost 75% of married people will have both parties working. By the end of this decade, women will contribute 40% of family incomes. This compares with about 30% today. Families also play a greater role in the pressure to create more flexible working hours and working relationships, as well as day-care facilities. The impact is just beginning to surface as more individuals decline pro- motion opportunities because it would involve relocating a working spouse. A rapidly growing number of companies are providing job-finding assis- tance for spouses of transferring managers. While families are making themselves heard as an active constituency in job-related decisions, they are also being subjected to an increasing number of pressures. Most individuals who are currently in management positions have not totally resolved their ambivalence about the changing stereotypes of sex roles. Despite the increased representation of women in the work force, most two-income families report that women are ex- pected to assume more responsibility for meal preparation and house- keeping. Clearly, if the two-career family is to succeed, men must take a more active role in child-rearing as well as household tasks. No one yet knows the long-range impact of the "latch-key children" approach to parenting. The Work in America Institute, Inc., a research organization based in Scarsdale, New York, estimates that more than 30 million American children have working mothers. They further estimate that at least 5 million of these children may be receiving inadequate care during their parents' working hours. The Urban Institute predicts that by 1990 there will be a 64% jump in the number of working mothers with children under 6. Almost half of the children in the country will spend part of their childhood in a single-family situation. The divorce rate, which currently runs around 40% of the number of marriages performed in a given year, will probably remain high but not increase dramatically. Marriage is still an important institution: about 90% of U.S. citizens will eventually marry. In 1982, one-third of all weddings 43 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 were a second marriage for at least one of the participants. People are, however, waiting longer before remarrying. Paradox V. More Ability and Need to Centralize Decisions, But More Pressure to Decentralize Computers, television, and satellites are already cutting down on the need for travel, allowing people access to information and communication from their homes or offices. By 1990, many experts believe that home computers will be in 80% of U.S. dwellings and will offer assistance with everything from office and school work to balancing the family checkbook. A more direct involvement in the democratic process will shortly be possible via electronic referendums. Within five years, Japan will initiate voting and census taking through video centers within the home. Unfor- tunately, access to tremendous amounts of data does not necessarily create more information or knowledge. Electronics may be able to bring in a vast variety of entertainment and data into homes, but it will be increas- ingly difficult for people to comprehend what it all means. The increasing sophistication of electronics in the home may also discourage them from moving out of their "hibernated existence" at home. Just as technology is making it possible for more individuals to have access to information and to participate in decision-making, the same kind of high-quality information is making it possible for centralized decisions to be made with more efficiency. Despite the sad record of government planning, the future offers the potential of much more efficient, intelligent approaches to predicting and controlling the future. Even the optimistic head of the Hudson Institute, Herman Kahn, admits that progress during the last fifth of this century is dependent upon a combination of "good luck and good management." It might appear that there is a greater need for efficiency in decision-making than participation. At present, the eco- nomic decisions that need to be made are extremely difficult because of political implications. Would it not be more reasonable for someone to make the decisions based on more input and better analysis than the average citizen can muster? Regardless of the efficiency of centralized decision-making, SRI In- ternational (formerly Stanford Research Institute) has concluded that the move for more participation in decision-making will affect all aspects of life during this decade. Many of the decisions made in this manner may not be optimal, but they will benefit from the motivation associated with taking part in the process. Paradox VI: More People Working, Yet Higher Unemployment One of the complex issues of the 1980 U.S. presidential election was the convincing argument of the incumbent president that more Americans were at work and earning more money than had been true at any other point in the history of the country. Conversely, the challenging candidate was citing impressive figures to prove that there were more people un- employed than had ever been out of work in the past. Despite the apparent 44 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 contradiction, both sets of facts were absolutely true. Moreover, both of these trends will probably continue. Labor economists will remember the 1970s for its unprecedented growth in new workers, primarily fueled by the maturation of babies born after World War II and the rapid influx of women. During the same period, "acceptable" unemployment increased from about 4% to 6% and, of course, is even higher now. While the work force will not continue to grow at the same rate as has been true in the past, there will probably be 16.4 million more people at work in 1990 than now. Technical areas such as computers and electronics will create increased employment opportunities along with such profes- sions as accounting, nursing, and engineering. Certain industries such as aerospace, communication, electronics, broadcasting, health care, and energy will experience dramatic increases. The Center for the Study of Social Policy in Menlo Park, California, portrays chronic unemployment and underemployment as fundamental concerns of the post-industrial society. This concern rests on the propo- sition that economic growth may not continue to generate enough jobs to accommodate even a slowly expanding work force and the quality of available jobs may not be compatible with the rising expectations asso- ciated with the higher educational levels of the population. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce believes that rising unemployment can be ex- plained by the following three trends: ? Increased benefits offered by unemployment compensation, welfare, and food stamp programs provide less incentive for people to find jobs. ? Dramatic increases in the number of women and teenagers in the work force lead to higher unemployment since these two groups tend to quit or change jobs more often than other workers. ? Because of the existence of two full-time workers in families, if one person becomes temporarily unemployed, the other affords a buffer against hardship that was not available before. In addition to unemployment, Herbert Greenberg, president of Mar- keting Survey and Research Corporation, believes that 80% of American workers are doing jobs for which they are not suited. This figure applies to "every job category . . . every educational group . . . every part of the country." It, of course, involves people who have stumbled into jobs for which they have little training or aptitude as well as individuals who are highly trained but unable to find employment in their own fields. Of course, unemployment figures only reflect those individuals who are currently actively seeking employment. When those who no longer seek work, those who are in featherbedding or make-work situations, drop-outs, or those in holding institutions such as reform schools and mental institutions are taken into account, real unemployment may be 20 to 25% of the potential work force. We will probably have to learn to live with a large number of underemployed and unemployed workers even when there is a tight labor market for entry-level jobs. 45 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Paradox VII. Dramatic Progress for Women, But Continued Inequality According to the National Commission on Working Women, 80% of the working women in the United States are concentrated in the low- paying, low-status jobs. Most are in "pink-collar" jobs such as waitress, beautician, and clerical positions. Another large concentration of working women may be found in blue-collar jobs (skilled and union trades). Surprisingly, there has been little progress in closing the gap between earnings for men and women. Since 1967, women have consistently earned about two-thirds of what their male counterparts do. Even in the female ghetto of clerical work, where salaries are extremely low, women's wages are only 63% of those paid for the few men in this field. The Labor Department reports that women who support their families earn less than half (46.9%) the amount earned by male breadwinners. The median income of female-headed families is only $10,400. In families where only the husband works, the median income is just under $21,000. When both husband and wife are employed, the family income averages almost $28,000. There have been important areas of progress during the past 20 years. Female banking and financial officers have increased from 2,100 to 122,000. Female sales management positions have increased from 200 to 12,000. According to the U.S. News Washington Letter, the 1980s will see dra- matic strides made by women in obtaining more equality in the U.S. work force. Within the next 20 years, females may hold the top spots in 10% of the nation's 500 largest companies. That's progress, but hardly equality. SRI International predicts that one of the most significant changes of the 1980s will be the impact of women making key management decisions. The backhanded compliment that "you think like a man" will give way to women making decisions as women. In other words, instead of being forced into a masculine mode, women will gain more freedom to make decisions in their own way. Women do make decisions differently from men. They generally utilize the right hemisphere of their brain in thinking more than men. This means that they are more likely to be creative or intuitive than relying totally upon logic. Your reaction to the foregoing statement may be a test of your own adaptability. Some readers will view the statement that "women make decisions differently" as a sexist com- ment. But there are obvious, important differences between men and women. Women will have achieved a degree of progress when they are not forced to compete with men by duplicating the male behavior pattern. When they can approach problems and challenges in their own individual manner, there may be some surprising but productive approaches to or- ganizational lives. In summary, there will be more progress than equality. Paradox VIII. Shorter Working Hours, with Less Leisure Time spent away from the job is generally expected to expand. Amer- icans will probably be willing to trade some income for added leisure time?especially where people are faced with the pressures of a two- 46 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 career family. The emergence of a larger number of affluent families will place a greater premium on leisure time. Labor Department projections suggest that annual work hours will drop from 1,900 today to about 1,775 in 2000. This translates to a move from 36.5 to 34.1 hours per week. William Lazer, past president of the American Marketing Association, believes that the 41/2-day workweek will become quite common. While more time that might be referred to as "discretionary" will be available, time demands for other life-style activities are also likely to expand. This will probably result in even less free time than is currently available. Lazer also estimates that "a full-time working housewife may well average over 60 hours at work, both at home and on the job." The same is probably true of a male who is actively involved in a career and family responsibilities. These time demands affect life-style, purchase behavior, and other product/service needs. Two-career families affect the demands for such categories of needs as one-stop shopping, repair service on weekends and nights, flexible work- ing arrangements, Sunday and evening store hours, family restaurants, fast-food chains, foods that can be prepared quickly at home, convenience items, products that require little service, summer school programs and extensive camps for children, products that stress usefulness and individ- ualism, and any item that will help save time on household tasks. Leisure, when it is actually available, will become more important. Individuals pressured with the demands of expanded responsibilities will treasure the time that they can be away from the demands of their day-to-day respon- sibilities. Balancing the demands of careers, families, and self-improve- ment will reduce the amount of true leisure that is available, even though the number of hours that must be spent at the office will decline. Paradox IX. The Triumph of Worker Participation, Yet a Revival of Scientific Management I've already documented the move toward greater decentralization of decision-making. This trend will be particularly important in organiza- tions. In business, it will be accentuated by the results of a quarter century of research in the field of human relations, as well as the example of Japanese management and the successes of a few U.S. pioneers. We can anticipate that industrial workers will be involved in autonomous work teams where they make many of their own production decisions. This "uni-management" is already occurring in a few companies as a result of agreements with the United Auto Workers in such firms as Dana Cor- poration, Rockwell, and Harman. At the Edgerton, Wisconsin, Dana fac- tory, production committees of workers and supervisors elect a union- management screening committee that sifts suggestions as to how the factors of production should be organized. At Harman Industries in Bo- livar, Tennessee, Worker-Supervisor Core Committees plan production within each department. Their decisions are subject to review by a plant- wide union-management work committee. In Europe, co-determination has made rapid strides. Swedish law puts union representatives on corporate boards. In 1976, West Germany gave 47 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ICIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 workers the right to elect half of the directors of firms employing over 2,000 people. Andre Thiria, international secretary of the Swedish Con- federation of Trade Unions, explains, "Demands are being raised for a better work environment and more satisfaction on the job, while at the same time mechanization and streamlining of production make it more difficult to meet these demands." Joint efforts by workers and management constitute one attempt to solve this dilemma. Because of the widespread recognition of America's problem of pro- ductivity, there will be a concurrent return to some of the basics of sci- entific management and production efficiency. Unlike the scientific- management movement that emerged around the turn of the century, workers will no longer be viewed as minor cogs in the production process. Productivity and efficiency are two themes that will increase dramatically in their popularity during the 1980s. At the beginning of this decade, productivity growth was less than 1% per year. This compares unfavorably with countries like Japan (6.8%), West Germany (5.3%), and even Great Britain (2.5%). Already, however, improved production technology (with greater emphasis on computer-assisted manufacturing and robots), an older and more experienced work force, economic pressures on workers, and greater involvement of workers in decisions that affect them are leading to productivity increases. Conclusion The observation that "We live in an age of transition" may have been first spoken by Adam as he escorted Eve from the Garden of Eden. It certainly is an appropriate description of the period that lies before us. In the midst of dramatic and sometimes conflicting trends, the astute manager must be able to read the ebb and flow of tides that affect his or her operation. Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." The challenge of the 1980s is to unravel the inconsistencies and to understand the paradoxes that confront us. It will not be a time for "little minds." 48 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 ' Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Toward Full Unemployment by Robert Theobald The goal of full employment has been put forward as the centerpiece of the good society for at least two generations. It is now so fully accepted that very few people stop to examine its changing implications given the new technologies that are developing so rapidly. In industrial societies, jobs are essential for the survival of almost all citizens: they provide income, enable people to claim a viable position in the society, determine status. Those without a job, whether by choice or by inability to find employment, usually feel out of the mainstream. This reality is shown by the deep depression that hits those who lose their jobs and also by the often expressed feeling: "I'm just a housewife." Movies and books have explored this trauma. It has even been suggested that people may well feel a right to rob banks and other organizations because society has failed them. To make the point clearly, the industrial- era social contract demands that we find jobs for everybody who wants them. This statement may appear exaggerated because less than half of the American population is employed. However, the vast majority of those who do not hold jobs at any particular time still obtain their rights to resources through their own past job-holding or their relationship to a job- holder. The unemployed, the sick, and the retired usually have income rights because of previous employment. The young and spouses and most of the old who do not hold jobs are normally supported by those who do. The job is the cornerstone of today's socio-economic order. The main- tenance of relatively full employment for over 35 years, since the Second World War, has provided opportunities for people to enter the labor force who would previously have stayed in the home. The increase in the percentage of women employed has been dramatic and has indeed changed societal functioning in ways that are still largely misunderstood. In the United States in April 1947, 29.8% of females aged 15 and over were in the labor force; in 1977, 48% were holding jobs. In the seventies, three out of five people entering the labor force were women. Well over 50% of married women between the ages of 20 and 44, living with their Robert Theobald is president of Participation Publishers, Wickenburg, Arizona. This paper is drawn from a forthcoming book entitled Social Economics. 49 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 husbands, were holding jobs as opposed to under a third in 1947. Nevertheless, despite the apparent priority given to job-holding, society today discourages many people from holding jobs who would have done so in the past. Children must stay in school until they are 16 or more in most rich countries, and they are encouraged to gain even more education. Retirement is possible at 65, or even 60, when many people are still healthy and strong. The central thesis of this paper is that the industrial-era social contract is now obsolete. It is inevitable that unemployment will rise in the eighties because of the impact of computers and robots. It is already possible to use a computer for less than the cost of the minimum wage, and costs will continue to fall. The development of the voice-actuated typewriter and computer during the eighties, to choose only one emerging example of technological change, will have a further dramatic impact on white- collar employment. As it becomes clear that we cannot usefully employ everybody, the contradictions in our present attitudes toward employment will lead to major conflicts. If we are to avoid the most dangerous possibilities, we must look behind the current academic and political smokescreens.Before we can begin to sort out the apparent contradictions in policy and actions, we must recognize the dramatic drop in the percentage of the average individual's life spent on the job. In the mid-nineteenth century, the av- erage male spent about 40% of his total hours of life on the job, leaving a maximum of 60% for sleep, meals, education, church, early childhood, etc. The pattern of the eighties requires the average individual to spend not more than 14% of his life on the job and the percentage is dropping. The early industrial era had an insatiable need for hands and bodies. Machinery was, to use today's jargon, labor-intensive. Given the need for hands and bodies, societies accepted the intolerable. People were torn from rural societies, moved into towns and cities, and coerced to work outrageous hours. Cheap labor was seen as essential and the consequent social and personal costs were hidden behind sentiments such as those taken from an 1848 Economist article: "Suffering and evil are nature's admonitions: they cannot be got rid of and the impatient attempts of benevolence to banish them from the world by legislation, before benev- olence has learned their object and their end, is more productive of evil than of good." In the first half of the nineteenth-century, therefore, children in many mills in Britain were working 14 hours a day and were being subjected to brutal ill-treatment. Others were working in mines pulling heavy carts in place of donkeys, going underground before daybreak and emerging after the sun set. As late as 1833, it was considered a significant reform when the employment of children under 9 was prohibited in all textile mills except silk, and the working hours of a young person were limited to 12 a day and 69 a week. Not surprisingly, workers accustomed to rural rhythms found factory conditions unacceptable. They often worked at their jobs, therefore, until they had earned enough to get drunk at the ubiquitous gin mills?only coming back when their money had run out. Trying to run efficient fac- 50 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 tories under these conditions was impossible. Efforts were therefore made, both consciously and unconsciously, to lead people to get satisfaction from their jobs. Listen to this paean of praise for the work ethic: "Work is a grand cure for all the maladies and miseries that ever beset mankind?honest work which you intend getting done." (Thomas Car- lyle) "Honor lies in honest toil." (Grover Cleveland) "There is no substitute for hard work." (Thomas A. Edison) "Any man who has a job has a chance." (Elbert Hubbard) "Work is the inevitable condition of human life, the true source of human welfare." (Leo Tolstoy) This cultural graft took. People came to believe that hard work was required to support their self-image. Hard work became the god of the secular society and of the church. Leaders were therefore slowly freed from a Middle-Ages personal and social framework in which change was considered threatening?and in many senses impossible?because one would be tampering with the divine will. Societies were increasingly challenged to believe that there were no limits to their capabilities. The capacity of technology, coupled with personal commitment to jobs, created a mighty engine for growth and the improvement of material conditions. The Impact of Industrial-Era Technology Almost as soon as the industrializing societies managed to convince people that hard work was good in and of itself, the impacts of industrial- era technology began to produce a new set of conditions. The number of hours of work required from each individual began to decline significantly. Societies adapted. They cut out Sunday working where it existed and went to half-days on Saturdays and eventually eliminated Saturday work- ing for many people. Vacations were lengthened. New public holidays were invented. Periods of education were lengthened. The concept of retirement was created and then ages of retirement were maintained even though life-spans got longer and longer. These steps were not enough, even when combined with longer periods of schooling, to cope with the capacity of industrial-era systems to produce more and more goods. The thirties slump overwhelmed the effect of previously adopted measures for balancing the socio-economy. Fortu- nately, John Maynard Keynes provided at this time a new solution for coping with surplus. He argued that the amount of effort required from people could be maintained if people and societies were enabled to con- sume more, for then additional jobs would be required to produce all that people wanted to consume. A full-employment system, based on balancing ever-increasing consumption desires with ever-rising productive abilities, therefore became the norm after the Second World War. Keynes knew, however, that this situation was temporary?even though his disciples missed this critical point. In an essay entitled "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren," he argued that we would have to come to recognize for the vices they actually are those behaviors we now proclaim as the highest virtues. He saw clearly that the encouragement of 51 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 consumption would move us into a profoundly new context and that we should then need to change fundamentally our life-styles and life cycles in ways that would seem surprising and shocking to many. Unfortunately, societies have ignored his insights and failed to use the last 50 years to think through the needed changes; instead, they have strengthened and maintained Keynes's temporary solution. It is not difficult to understand why we have largely failed to perceive the new realities. Part of the resistance comes from the normal unwill- ingness to admit the reality of any change in conditions. In addition, we should recognize that the failure has to some extent been inevitable because those who sell ideas and make policy today have less leisure time than the typical job-holder: a total reversal of the nineteenth-century pattern. People with high-level skills usually work excessive hours?and are often workaholics. They assume?all too often?that most of the population shares their ideas and attitudes. One critical, and central, idea of Rea- ganomics?that most people are committed to their jobs but are discour- aged from further work by high tax rates?emerges from this elitist group. This belief is untrue, as more and more surveys have shown. In reality, the job is no longer the center of life for most people. Although most people do not value jobs themselves, they are still com- mitted to maintaining?and, if possible, improving?their standard of living. This remains true even though there is a significant and increasing group, members of which have decided to opt for voluntary simplicity? a life-style that limits consumption to real needs. The majority of the population, however, still feels that it is justified in fighting back if its real income erodes. The general decline in levels of income in recent years?except for those people who have been able to send an additional family member out to work?has led to widespread frustration. This, in turn, is resulting in considerable tax evasion as wage-earners feel they are being deprived of their fair share of the production of the society. Some workers evade taxes by hiding second jobs at which they earn additional income. Tax evasion can also develop within jobs. Thomas Brom, writing in the Los Angeles Times of November 28, 1980, states: Jerry is a house framer working in an exclusive suburban development near San Francisco Bay. He works under union contract, which requires a short work week as an incentive for builders to hire more carpenters. So once every two weeks, Jerry has what carpenters call a Black Friday: no work, no pay. But Jerry and his mates come to work anyway. They are paid "off the books" in cash, and spend much of their time hiding from the business representative of their own union. The framers don't declare the income, the contractor doesn't declare wages and, so, if the union doesn't find out, everybody but Uncle Sam is happy. Jerry is a microcosm of the societal problem we must unravel. We are caught in a situation where jobs are the key to survival but enough jobs are not, and will not, be available. Indeed, as we have already seen, the problem is going to worsen rapidly. Fortunately, the fact that a growing number of people see jobs as a way to get income, rather than as being valuable in themselves, could provide flexibility in the culture if leaders were prepared to face reality. 52 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 There is a positive mythology around the full-employment ethic that must be broken before we can hope to make intelligent new policies. We must ask, as Keynes did, whether full employment is a desirable and effective way to mobilize the energies of human beings, and we must ask this question based on emerging communications-era realities rather than on obsolete industrial-era models. We must recognize that today's society simply cannot function without the maintenance of full employment but that we do have a choice whether we shall continue to perpetuate present socio-economic models through the eighties. In order to understand this point, we must understand that any func- tioning socio-economic system must necessarily be logical and coherent so long as its basic premises are not challenged. To break out of current norms, we must re-examine the fetters imposed on us by the full-em- ployment model in the same way as slavery was challenged in the nine- teenth century. It is obvious that comparing a full-employment system to slavery will seem shocking to many, but we must recognize that the ethical contrast between slavery and employment was less clear to those involved in nineteenth-century debates than it is now. William Wilberforce, the great British anti-slavery figure, was widely criticized for his patterns of child employment, which were argued by many to be equally as inhumane as the slavery he so vigorously attacked. Similarly, some of the more intellectual Southerners raised fundamental questions at the time of the Civil War that have been ignored since. They argued that the conflict was not, basically, a moral one but emerged rather from the fact that different styles of employment were effective for dif- ferent patterns of production. They pointed out that the South needed a stable labor force and had met its needs through slavery. They argued that the North wanted a labor force that it could hire and fire according to the needs of the trade cycle because Northern industrialists could not afford to hold onto their labor in times of slump. Their arguments were shown to have considerable validity, as the great novels written by the late-nineteenth-century muckrakers made abundantly clear. It is time to break out of the pieties that surround the job issue and face up to the real and fundamental nature of the contract between the employer and the employee, who must strike a bargain in terms of wages and conditions of work. Given a full-employment situation, the worker? particularly when supported by trade unions?can strike a decent deal. Indeed, the power of workers almost overwhelmed employers at certain points in the last 30 years. These days, however, are gone forever. Full employment in the current sense of 'a job for all those who might want one will not be restored, and more and more people are aware of this reality. In these circumstances, the worker inevitably serves at the pleasure of the employer and must always worry about the impact of his or her behavior on job tenure. Such a system destroys morale and human dignity when jobs are scarce, for the worker must increasingly pander to the prejudices of the employer to survive. Nor can labor unions be effective, given their present percep- tions of their roles. They can protect some workers some of the time. But the more effective they are, in these limited activities, the worse the overall 53 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 situation will become, because an ever-larger proportion of the available jobs will be monopolized and those outside the system will have even less chance of entering it. In his book Player Piano, Kurt Vonnegut explores the dangers of trying to maintain the myth of a full-employment system, once the reality of unemployment becomes dominant. He shows how we shall be forced toward a serf society. The patterns of workfare, or compulsory activity required by the state in order to obtain welfare payments, which are developing already in many states, show how his fears could be easily realized in the immediate future. It might seem that we are caught in an insoluble bind. But this is because we insist on looking at too narrow a picture. One overwhelming reality of today is the amount of work that needs to be done and that cannot be structured into jobs for which wages and salaries can be paid. Cities are run-down, human services are increasingly inadequate, education is less good than in the past. The other overwhelming reality is that people are crying out for meaningful challenges that move beyond the economic into improving personal and societal functioning. In order to get a sense of the implications of the necessary shifts in direction, I have developed definitions of various work-related terms as they might appear in a twenty-first century dictionary: Work: Activity that provides a sense of self-worth to the individual; previously linked to economic reward but not in present conditions. Toil: Activity that nobody would choose to do. Greatly reduced by the microelectronic revolution, but today each person is expected to do some of the necessary toil as part of his obligations as a citizen; failure to do this toil typically incurs significant social penalties. Job (Obsolete): An individual was paid by an employer who controlled his or her activities through fear of dismissal and prospects of promotion. Leisure (Obsolete): The division between job and leisure was central to twentieth-century thinking: people "bought" pleasant activities to coun- teract the unsatisfactory nature of their jobs. The late-twentieth-century turbulence was caused, in part, by leisure becoming more important than the jobs that supported it. Unemployment (Obsolete): People who could not get jobs were paid to support their idleness; meanwhile, both work and toil went undone, with a consequent worsening of the quality of life. In this context, the words full employment are seen to be inadequate. It becomes clear that we need to break out of an employment and un- employment ethic into a new world in which work, prestige, and income are allocated according to totally new patterns. With these changes in mind, then, what are the primary alterations that can be expected in patterns of work and activity? The word primary must be stressed, of course, because as work patterns change so will the whole pattern of the society and there is no space here to detail the full impli- cations of such shifts. 54 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Flexible Work and Learning Patterns There is a dominant style to the late industrial era: People prepare for jobs, work at jobs, and retire from jobs. As the number of hours it is necessary to spend at jobs has declined, this system has begun to fray at the edges. For example, community colleges now spend much of their time teaching older students and recycling them back into the economic system in new opportunities. This pattern will continue to develop. In the work world, there are the beginnings of job-sharing?with two people each taking half of the work and the responsibilities that would previously have been carried out by one. More and more people are being given time off to renew themselves and to develop further skills.Flextime, where people have the right to choose starting and quitting times, is becoming a conventional management tool. The number of workers with "floating" starting and quitting times has risen substantially from 1977's three million, says Georgetown Univer- sity's Stanley Nolan, according to a December 2, 1980, Wall Street Jour- nal report. "New York City plans to adopt flextime to enhance productivity and expand services. More concerns extend the benefits to production or technical workers. Among them: Digital Equipment Corp., Corning Glass Works, and Sercel Industries Inc., a seismic equipment assembler." Older workers will also spend part of their time passing on their skills to younger ones in one-on-one or one-on-many real situations. The Cal- ifornia State Department of Education is seeking to legitimate, through legislation, the apprentice process so that it may be considered the equiv- alent of more formal education. If this should occur, we shall recognize that skilled older workers can usually spend years introducing young people to their crafts and to a responsible method of working. This will allow us to relate young people to old in effective and challenging patterns. But the most profound and critical change will be in the way we think about life cycles and the way we plan our passages through life. Once we accept the reality of this change, we shall be able to perceive how much alteration there has already been from the classic industrial-era models. For example, the goal of lifetime learning is rapidly being institutionalized in our culture. One force driving this change is that people cannot function effectively with what they learned in school or college one or more decades ago. Another is that educational institutions cannot survive without finding different groups of people to attend college?and older citizens are the largest untapped market. Another area where profound change is taking place is that more and more of the critical work in the culture demands total attention and total commitment: it cannot be accomplished in 40 hours or 5 days a week. This type of work is highly exciting and challenging and people are pleased to do it. However, individuals need to concentrate completely on this type of work and they must have all the support systems they require to be effective. Few people can, or should, however, continue to work intensively for a lengthy period, for they lose their perspective on the overall reality of the society. Burnout occurs and people want and need to renew themselves. 55 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: LCIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 This reality is already being recognized in the political arena, where we know that the mental maps of politicians often freeze soon after they enter Congress because of their overloads. Shorter terms are therefore being proposed for politicians: Indeed the concept of single nonrenewable terms for all those involved in legislation is now being proposed in order to avoid the pathologies that emerge as people look toward ensuring their re-election rather than meeting the fundamental needs of the society. This suggestion for movement into and out of work activities rests on a key assumption: that an individual can learn to learn. In other words, many of the myths about the difficulty of learning to perform effectively in various jobs are related primarily to the desire to maintain power, prestige, and authority structures rather than to the actual problems of learning new types of activity; this is increasingly true given the devel- opment of computer knowledge systems. One of the more depressing aspects of the present culture is that the ever-rising tide of credentialization prevents us from challenging most people to use their brains more effec- tively. We hear from time to time about the maverick who has failed to follow the credentializing route but has nevertheless held a variety of jobs that are believed to require very lengthy periods of education: doctors, air pilots, etc. The inevitable lesson is that skills could be effectively learned more rapidly by many, but this is prevented by the desire of the society to maintain a scarcity of qualified persons in various professions because this ensures higher incomes for them. While we do not need untrained people in high-risk professions, the future will require flexibility and freedom, particularly in movement along one's chosen life-path. Unfortunately, freedom is frightening to many. We shall therefore need to preserve, for a substantial number of years, structures and jobs for those who have built cages for themselves or have been built into cages by their experiences, from which they are now unable to escape. Contrary to the normal prescriptions, we should now be en- couraging most young people to find their own work so that the remaining conventional jobs can be preserved for older people who require structures because their life experience limited their capacity to deal with choices. One fascinating aspect of this change in experience patterns was expressed by a banker who said: "The most positive thing you can do for an older man is to offer him overtime. It is the most negative possibility for most younger people." Today's real failure with the young is not our inability to provide them with jobs, for the evolution of the socio-economy makes this inevitable. Our true catastrophe is that we have not educated people to grasp oppor- tunities outside the conventional job market or to make choices among the wide range of options available within the communications era. Toil As a Responsibility for All One primary, and urgently needed, change is for young people to rec- ognize that the unplanned "invention" of adolescence was one of the worst mistakes made by a society. The period of schooling was extended further and further and children were deprived of the possibility of taking 56 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 responsibility for their decisions. This pattern was recognized as dangerous in early Greece, when Plato argued that teenagers needed to be challenged physically rather than to sit down passively and learn ideas. Fortunately, a concept has been developed over recent years that could, with some modification, serve the needs of the young and the urgent requirements of the culture. It has been suggested that everybody should do work that would benefit the society during their teenage years. This time now needs to be placed, however, in a new developmental context. Young people should continue to be educated within their home com- munities from kindergarten through eighth grade. The learning pattern would be revised, however, to encourage values learning and the devel- opment of personal responsibility within the home, the school, and the community. The timing of various types of learning would also be changed to fit what we have learned from childhood development studies. Young people would then be encouraged to spend the next four years (largely outside their own home communities) doing the heavy challenging work that older people would rather not do, or will not do at all. Included in these activities would be the renewal of cities, care of the sick and the elderly, stoop agriculture, reforestation, and a multitude of societally nec- essary tasks that are today not being done or only being accomplished by coercion based on poverty and the consequent need for people to take any available job. There would be no compulsion to engage in this type of activity, but there should be substantial rewards in terms of future educational entitle- ments. In addition, as this type of activity becomes built into the culture, those who choose to avoid it will inevitably find themselves disadvantaged in both obvious and subtle ways. The most dramatic, and exciting, implication of such a shift will be a new way of getting the toil of the culture accomplished. We have always needed poverty to guarantee that dirty work is done in our type of culture. If we have a large-scale labor force available for these purposes, then we can for the first time imagine a society in which extremes of wealth and poverty are abolished. Such a suggestion for new socialization processes, with their overtones of cultural coercion, may be rejected by those who have failed to examine the ways in which societies are held together. We shall have to recognize that freedom is only possible within synergetic societal structures. En- couraging young people to engage in activities where they will be chal- lenged to accept responsibility is a valid way to provide them with the ability to cope with freedom later in their lives. At the age of 18, most people will have a better sense of what they want to achieve. Some will be ready for more academic education. Some will want to move toward technical skills. Some will move into appren- ticeship patterns. Some will marry and raise families. The new society we are entering will tolerate, and indeed encourage, a far wider diversity of life-styles. But as already suggested, there will be one fairly common pattern: Many people will tend to work intensively for a period of time and then need to re-create and re-educate themselves. We shall extend rapidly the concept of sabbaticals in terms of the number 57 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 of people involved, the number of occupations for which they are con- sidered relevant, and the length of time for which people can free them- selves up from responsibilities. Societies will be able to make free time available because of the impacts of computers and robots, which will limit the amount of human energy needed for industrial-era jobs. During the industrial era, the job has been the primary way in which we have got the work of the culture done. It has also been the method of allocating income. In addition, it has been used to allocate prestige and position. The job will not be effective for these purposes in the communications era since we can no longer afford to devalue the contributions made by parents in the home and volunteers in the community. In the communi- cations era, we shall come to recognize parenting as a full-time paid career for as much as 20-25 years of one's life: this will be seen as one of the options for personal development. We shall also support, both socially and financially, the community volunteer. More and more people have been attracted to these options for more than a decade. But it has been impossible to achieve the necessary changes because of our patterns of income distribution. One of the most urgent tasks is to change these in the light of the ways in which wealth is created in the communications era. 58 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Managing Technological Change Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Computer Integrated Manufacturing: The Human Factors by Ross Bishop There is a good deal of discussion today about the coming transformation called the "Information Age." Futurists tend to wax poetic about ap- proaching periods of great transformation. I am certain that every age has something to be excited about, but I have to admit that, as I look into this new age, I cannot help but be impressed by the enormity of the change that is being spread before us. It is an incredible smorgasbord. Although the Information Age will produce dramatic changes in all aspects of so- ciety, the most significant transformations may be those which occur in industry. Computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) is the embodiment of machine intelligence in manufacturing. By creating intelligent machines and tying them into a highly sophisticated manufacturing system, man will make a quantum leap in his ability to produce goods. He will dra- matically alter the economics of manufacturing and provide society with the means to grow and expand, transcending its present values and struc- ture. We have made enormous strides in manufacturing over the last century, but we are still dependent upon human labor to produce our goods. Most manufacturing (60%) is in batches too small to be automated at present. In addition to the obvious economic considerations, workers must be subjected to heat, noise, fumes, and the risk of injury in a boring and often mindless environment. Computer-integrated manufacturing with its robots, intelligent machines, and sophisticated information technologies will permanently change that. Response to these new technologies has been somewhat erratic. The Japanese have embraced them eagerly and have become one of the most advanced and productive manufacturers in the world. They utilize half the world's robots and a tremendous amount of semi-robotic equipment. In the West, attitudes toward these new technologies have been much more conservative. We have been reluctant to assume the lead in CIM. Ironically, it is in the West that these technologies have been developed. Ross Bishop is a futurist who specializes in the areas of organizational changes created by social and technological changes. He is a consultant for corporations and gov- ernment agencies. 61 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Western businessmen point to the cost and shortage of capital as the culprit restricting the use of these new technologies. Not only is this explanation simplistic, it does not speak, I believe, to the real issue. The problem goes much deeper than that. As an example, American auto makers, faced with enormous losses and significant erosion of market share, would have allocated the capital if all they had needed was some new hardware. Unfortunately, it was not that simple. The automakers were locked into a system of technology and management that was de- signed for another age. Even if they could have read the Japanese hand- writing on the wall, I am not at all certain that there was much they could have done about it. Any society, especially a business, must adapt its values, organizatipn, and management style to maximize significant technological development. If not, it runs the risk of impeding its own growth and development. I do not speak of change for the sake of fashion, but rather for survival in a competitive environment. Samuel Lilley, in his profound Men, Machines and History, points to the necessity for this parallel development: ". . . at each level of technological development certain social conditions must be satisfied if the technology is to advance yet farther. And as a result, amid all the variety of history one basic pattern is repeated time and time again. Each form of society is at first well adapted to encourage technological advance. In these conditions, the technological level rises more or less rapidly, and even- tually reaches a point at which yet further progress requires a different form of social organization. Then progress is slowed down?until the required social change is made."' We stand at a most unique time in human history. Within our lifetimes we shall witness the end of one age and the birth of another. We are experiencing the end of a great industrial cycle?the end of the Age of Steel and the technologies and social structure associated with it; and we will bear witness to the development of the Age of Information. Computer- Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) will require a substantial restructuring of the corporate organization, both functionally and philosophically. The system will require a good deal of decentralized autonomy, accelerating the current shift from the traditional authoritarian hierarchy to more egal- itarian forms of decision-making. CIM will spark a redefinition, perhaps for the second time in man's history, of the nature of work. Blue-collar values that have been established over a century of factory labor will be transformed by the conditions of the new system. A new stratum of workers will be institutionalized be- tween blue- and white-collar groups?I call them "grays." They are the myriad of technical support people essential to the success of the computer- integrated system. Job-security issues and new standards of compensation will present themselves for resolution as CIM evolves. Retraining, job fracturing, leapfrogging, and outsourcing will take on new importance. There will also be mobility issues to be resolved. Manufacturing could become highly portable. Experts predict the development of general-pur- pose manufacturing equipment that will perform a wide range of tasks. With this programmable equipment in place, a plant could produce a wide 62 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ICIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 variety of products. Thus, a firm will be able to relocate to another facility by simply transferring its software. This will exacerbate job migration, regional economies, and a host of other issues. Smaller batch breakevens and the ease of "retooling" may make contracted manufacturing the prevalent method of production. It will also bring new competitors. It is always difficult to see transitions from the inside, "through a glass darkly," as it were. Changes of this kind are evolutionary. A little happens every day until the world is different, but often only a historical comparison illustrates the extent of the shift. Transitions of this magnitude are fre- quently punctuated by loud and boisterous conflicts as contending forces jostle for position. We would be naive not to expect them. Technology In the workplace as elsewhere, technology is the great amplifier. It expands the resources available to society by creating a reservoir of knowl- edge and power. Technology not only allows us to do more and do it better, but also gives us the power to use energies totally beyond the range of our natural senses. Consider that without technology you would be a subsistence farmer. If technology did not advance, half the population would be employed as telephone operators?placing calls for the other half. "Ridiculous," you say, "we'd never do that." And you would be correct. With a static technology, we would never have allocated that much of our human resources to expand the communications system that has played such an important role in our social and economic development. It is through the expansion of resources such as this that civilizations grow. Whether you like technology or not, the fact is that without it we would have developed little beyond feudalism. Each technological step allows fewer people to do more than before, expanding society's resource base and freeing us to pursue other goals. The effect of an earlier technologically based social transformation is illustrated in Figure 1. Two to three million years ago, human society consisted mostly of hunters and gatherers. Then, about 10,000 years ago, a transformation occurred as man developed the technologies of agricul- ture. By 1500 A.D., most of human society had given up hunting for farming. Agriculture had become the dominant mode of living. Not only did agriculture allow man to live more successfully, it gave impetus to a new and much more effective social structure. Human civilization was able to transcend nomadic life and to develop civilizations and cultures that were impossible before. An anthropologist once said, "It was the success of the simplest tools that started the whole trend of human evo- lution and led to the civilizations of today." In response, Arthur Clarke commented, "Note the phrase, 'the whole trend of human evolution.' The old idea that we invented tools is a misleading half-truth; it would be more accurate to say that tools invented man." Agrarian man lived on the strength of his back; his tools were simple and dictated that he focus his energies on survival. The guild craftsman was a specialist, but he was limited by his own strength, speed, and 63 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Figure 1 Transition from Hunting to Agriculture POPULATION Agriculture 2-3 Million B.C. 10,000 B.C. 1500 A.D. precision. The goods that he made were of exceptional workmanship, quite expensive, and produced in very limited quantities. The machines of the period were beginning to free man from the limits of his hands; they pioneered industrial society. As we study the industrial period (Figure 2), we see an evolution very similar to the agrarian transformation thousands of years before. Remem- ber that in 1500 we were all subsistence farmers. There was little else one could do. The industrial transformation once again expanded the pool of resources available to society and allowed the social order to completely transcend the limitations of agrarian feudalism. The growth of society during this time?absolutely in terms of population and relatively as re- gards social development?was simply phenomenal. Every aspect of the society was dramatically affected. Those that would not change were broken. It is not coincidental that the American and French Revolutions and a series of revolts in Britain occurred during the period. Early industrial man still depended upon his brawn, but machines freed him from the limitations of his body. Although in the 1700s 90% of the work force of the United States was engaged in agriculture, the mechanized farmer was much more productive than his predecessor. As Figure 3 illustrates, the percentage of the work force necessary to feed the popu- lation has declined steadily since 1790. (Actual farm employment [Figure 41 did increase until just after the turn of the century when tractors and other powered implements began to appear [Figure 51. But as the work force grew, it moved into the industrial sectors.) Although the data is from a more contemporary period, Figures 6-9 vividly illustrate the effects of technological change on farming. While farm production has simply rocketed, the amount of human resources required per unit of production has steadily declined. There are those who decry the loss of our bucolic farming society, but I have worked on farms and I am certainly glad there 64 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Figure 2 Transition from Agriculture to Industrialism POPULATION Information Industrialism 1709 1800 1900 1982 are other options. Incidentally, one of the reasons I use agriculture as an example is that it is one of the few industries whose products have not been completely transformed by technological development, allowing for historical comparisons. The new technologies reduced the farming population?as, in a limited sense, robots and other intelligent machines will affect the "hands on" manufacturing work force. But the reason the farmer (or, most likely, his children) could make the transition was that there were factory jobs avail- able. Had industrialization not occurred, the workers would simply have remained farmers and society would have continued the more limited growth of medieval agrarianism. It is important to remember that one would not have occurred without the other. The transition from farm life to factory regimentation was not easy. It was filled with all the soul-wrenching discontinuities of rapid transition. Workers were asked to trade the values of agricultural society for those of the factory. As Charles Dickens so aptly noted, the early factories were snake pits of abuse and inhumanity. The factories' redeeming quality was that they were an improvement over the poverty, famine, misery, and disease common to rural society at the time. The social fabric was even- tually reforged to accommodate and benefit from the shift to industriali- zation. But as with other transitions, it took time and conflict to develop a new set of social values compatible with the changes in technology. Technology, for all its wonder and power, is nothing more than an extension of the human condition. Man is a technological creature; it is his nature. There is no dualism between man and machine. If technology brings about good, it is because man has directed it so. If it is used for evil, it is because there is also a dark side to man. It is not mere coincidence that man's greatest technological achievements have come at the same time as his greatest atrocities. 65 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 pre 3 Farm Employment as a Percent of the Work Force 1790-1970 90- 80- 70- 60 ? 50 ? cc 111 o_ 40 ? 30 ? 20 ? 10 ? 0 1 III I I I I I I III I I I I. I I 1790 1880 1920 1970 YEAR Figure 4 Farm Employment 1836-1980 15 9 3 36 50 64 78 92 6 YEAR 20 34 48 62 76 66 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Figure 5 Farm Tractors in Use 1910-1981 NUMBER OF TRACTOR 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 10 17 24 31 38 45 YEAR 52 59 66 73 80 Figure 6 Index of Farm Output 1910-1980 10 17 24 31 ? 38 45 52 59 66 73 80 YEAR 67 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Figure 7 Index of Farm Production per Worker Hour 1910-1980 68 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Figure 8 Farm Inputs?Indexed 1910 A?Labor 93% B?Machinery 6% C?Chemicals 1% Figure 9 Farm Inputs?Indexed 1980 A?Labor 18% B?Machinery 35% C?Chemicals 47% 69 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: 31A-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: -2,1A-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The fact that it is in man's nature to develop technology does not mitigate the concerns expressed by its critics. We have developed a great society, but have paid little attention to the human values for which it was ostensibly created. We have many things, and much anxiety. We are, as Robert Heilbroner has commented, "of high capitalism and low socialism." Our industry is not guided by codes of morality, only by laws against pollution. The anxiety of those who oppose technology is the concern that we all must share about dehumanization, pollution, the invasion of privacy, cold bureaucracy, and mass destruction. Predictions It would be easier if we could peer into the future and ordain what is to come, but we cannot. Seers will make predictions, but predicting is a tricky business, and prophesying technological impacts presents some special problems. As a result, technologists and their critics have a fairly poor record of accurately predicting the effects of new developments. Remember the nuclear power that was going to be too cheap to meter? Or the private airplane that would replace the family car? In 1948, Norbert Wiener predicted that we would all be unemployed in 10 years because of automation. Later, computers were going to take over management, eliminating the need for millions of white-collar workers. There is an important lesson to be learned from these experiences. Images of the future must be built by imagination. The visions created by supporters and critics, fueled by their passions, become larger than life and present a distorted image of what will likely occur. Our recent experiences should teach us to take most of these predictions with a grain, or perhaps a good deal, of salt. Personally, I'm still waiting for my picturephone. The section that follows is a scenario of the future computer-integrated factory. I have tried to posture it so that it is within the realm of what is probable with present technology. Other developments I leave to your imagination. Factory Scenario The high-tech factory is not an entity, at least not yet. It is only a representation of the manufacturing system that will supersede our present production methods. Although the changes will be substantial, they may not be convulsive. Transformations of this kind tend to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, but what they lack in speed they make up in momentum. They have enormous inertia. The high-tech firm is an octopus with the computer at its heart. In the old industrial system, an army of people performed boring and repetitive jobs both on the line and in the office. The production line was an inhumane and unforgiving taskmaster that was much better suited to the machine. A very sophisticated computer system and intelligent manufacturing equip- ment have taken over many of the routine functions, freeing people to make decisions and create. Product design and development was always an art, but now the com- puter performs the mundane tasks, freeing designers and engineers to make better use of their talents. Computer-aided design (CAD) has re- 70 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 placed the need for endless rows of drafting tables and erasers. Designers work with light pens at consoles. The computer makes detailed drawings, debugs designs, and offers alternate suggestions. It also performs stress and reliability testing, minimizing design problems and reducing lead times. The computer is the master production organizer and coordinator. Com- puter-aided manufacturing (CAM) has meant tying all the various parts of the production process together to take advantage of the computer's speed and accuracy. Design and scheduling changes are quickly coordi- nated with the entire organization and its outside contacts. Computers facilitate coordination of the entire manufacturing matrix as has never been possible through the human planners, coordinators, managers, pro- grammers, and other support people. The fine-tuned precision of the op- eration is well beyond the efficiencies of the old hard-tooled line. The high-tech factory has changed the way products are made, introducing many exotic materials and fostering the reconceptualization of virtually every product we use. A visit to a high-tech facility is strange for people accustomed to the traditional factory. "Intelligent" machines perform most of the assembly work once done by people. Machines move and whir, products move through the assembly area, the whole thing orchestrated as if by magic. Factories run continuously, producing a variety of high-quality products at greater volume and lower cost. The manufacturing process is organized around "cells" of general- purpose machines and support equipment. Dedicated tooling is rarely necessary or economical. Reprogrammable general-purpose equipment is made to perform a wide range of functions and is itself mass produced, drastically reducing its effective cost. It has significantly reduced batch breakeven costs. In 1980, 60% of our manufacturing was in batches too small for mass production. Now almost everything fits. This has allowed many new companies to compete successfully with established firms who were committed to the older technologies and fixed production systems. Only infrequently does one see a human directly involved in production, an oddly soft enigma to all this hard machinery. Irrespective of all the publicity, people and robots perform very different functions. In the old days, people were the only resource available to perform the monotonous and mindless repetitive production line work. The significant advances in robotic and other production technologies have eliminated the need for people to function like well-oiled machines. Now most workers are op- erators, controlling sophisticated systems, using their heads instead of their hands. Operations are very decentralized, with most of the operating and planning decisions made on the shop floor. The other workers perform an array of servicing, monitoring, and plan- ning tasks that keep the incredible pace of the factory operating smoothly. Mental stress is higher, as an error at this pace means a lot of wasted product or some very expensive down-time. Each cell has a host of support people who attend to various units throughout the facility. Quite a few skilled trades people are employed maintaining machines, modifying the lines, and installing new equipment. The people who control and support 71 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 the high-tech system comprise a new strata of "gray collar" workers. There are many data entry people, systems analysts, schedulers, computer techs of all kinds, planners, and coordinators. They are not blue-collar, but they really are not management either. One of the lingering problems of old industrialism was the conflict between labor and management over the nature of work. The workplace was never designed for humans in the first place. Management really wanted something that didn't mind boring repetition and noise, didn't get sick, and didn't have an ego. Workers, on the other hand, sought some outlet for the basic human need to make a creative contribution, to mentally "own" what they made. Neither had a choice; the human was the best machine that management could get, and the worker needed to eat. It was an uncomfortable accommodation. The solution came in robotics and computer-integrated machines. They operate tirelessly, with "up" time around 95%?a 20% improvement over human labor. They do not get bored, take vacations, or require pensions?and are not sensitive to heat and noise. They can easily be reprogrammed, so a line can be "retooled" quickly. Down-time is min- imized and quality control held tight by the equipment's ability to monitor its own performance. It can tell if it is nearing tolerance limits and will either self-correct or notify the operator. Waste is minimized and critical shutdowns are avoided. As we move back into today, the question most frequently asked is "When will all this happen?" The answer is that it already is happening. The industrial process is being transformed a little every day. Some in- dustries, like some countries, are moving more quickly than others, but each trade show brings new developments in computer-integrated tech- nology and moves us a step closer. Jobs It is not surprising that today's workers?already restive from massive unemployment and a sluggish economy?view the computer-integrated factory with its robots, automated manufacturing, and sophisticated in- formation technology somewhat anxiously. Open a newspaper or magazine today and you are likely to find an article about a "revolution" called the information society or, alternately, the post-industrial society. These articles often express concern for large-scale technological unemployment as machines replace people on production lines, reviving old arguments about jobs and technology. History teaches us that economies remain viable and that jobs are created through the development of new products and new technologies. It has also demonstrated that although the workplace gets stirred up by tech- nological change and the social changes that accompany it, most workers remain employed. The simple fact is that during the last 150 years of enormous technological change, with only rare exceptions, 95% or more of the work force has remained employed (Figures 10-11). Certainly if technological employment were a macro problem we would have wit- nessed it by now. 72 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Figure 10 Employment as a Percentage of the Population 1870-1980 100 75 25 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1870 1930 YEAR 1980 Figure 11 Unemployment as a Percentage of the Labor Force 1890-1980 75 50 25 0 90 99 8 17 26 35 YEAR 44 53 62 71 ao 73 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: 'CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Sizable employment discontinuities have more to do with matters eco- nomic than technological. During the 1960s there was a great deal of concern about technological unemployment. Research had exonerated technology, but so deep was the conviction (or so strong the politics) that in 1964 Congress created the National Commission on Technology, Au- tomation, and Economic Progress to "identify and describe the impact of technological and economic change on production and employment, in- cluding the major types of worker displacement." Louis Rader noted that, "It is accurate to say that the major concern?the one most responsible for the establishment of the Commission?arose from the belief that tech- nological change was the major source of unemployment . . ." When the Commission's report was issued in 1966, it completely absolved tech- nology. The large-scale unemployment that many critics had predicted never materialized.2 In fact, quite the opposite occurred. The new tech- nologies had created millions of jobs and entire new industries. Unemployment from technological change does not come from its pres- ence but rather from its absence. When a firm does not invest in new technology either because of short-term management thinking or prohib- itive capital markets, then it sets in motion a downward spiral from which recovery is very difficult. The company's older equipment usually means higher production costs. It is frequently unable to maintain competitive quality standards, and product improvements cannot be matched. For these and other reasons, sales begin to slip, production is cut, and unit production costs rise, eroding profits. Layoffs begin. Investment confidence slips. Plants are closed. If the new factories are overseas, so are the jobs, stranding the work force. It is not a pretty sight, nor is it a hypothetical one. Look around you. Misunderstandings also arise from the failure to distinguish between what is technologically possible and what is economically sound. Studies of technological implementation indicate an average diffusion rate of a decade from the first industrial use to widespread adoption. The imple- mentation of a new technology will depend upon its long-run advantages, its transitional costs and aggravations, and the ease with which it dispels its skeptics. Then, too, it will hang on such matters as politics, sociology, economics, and military strategy.' Some workers do get caught in the transition between waves ot tech- nological change as the old gives way to the new. Their numbers are not large, but that does not detract from their individual pain and anxiety. We have not developed an effective mechanism to help workers with this transition. It is a condition that in the words of one research report is "pretty shameful." Faced with the abyss of job loss and few viable alternatives, workers have fought to maintain the status quo. The fear of job losses to new technology has permeated the history of the industrial revolution. In the 1700s, French weavers threw their wooden shoes (sabots) into the mech- anized looms that they feared would take their jobs (giving rise to the term saboteur). The Luddites of England (branded as anti-technologists) selectively smashed weaving looms of unscrupulous employers who were producing inferior goods or using the new technologies to circumvent 74 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 existing labor agreements. In the early 1960s, Walter Reuther, president of the United Auto Workers, and Luther Hodges, U.S. Secretary of Labor, opposed automation because they believed it caused unemployment. George Meany told his AFL-CIO convention in 1963 that automation was "rapidly becoming a curse to this society." Although history notes many worker revolts and uprisings, workers do not seem inherently opposed to new technology. They are however, op- posed to losing their jobs?a very important distinction. The utilitarian attitude toward employees propogated early in the industrial revolution by Jeremy Bentham and the Fabians has endured because it gives license to short-term gain. It is little wonder that job security has been such a large issue in the history of industrial society. Someday we will learn that a good employee is worth more than the wage costs of replacement. It also illustrates why workers with secure employment, such as in Japan or at IBM, are much more receptive to new technology. In the next few years, we are going to hear a great deal about machines replacing people at work. Journalists and science-fiction writers can dream up mechanical replacements for man, but as the people who make robots will tell you, it is a lot easier to talk about than to do. Taking nothing away from the significant advances we have made in robotic technology, we are still light years from creating the fanciful R2D2 and C3P0 of "Star Wars." The human system is extremely subtle and complex; it has evolved over several million years. lam reminded of Wernher von Braun's comment about astronauts. He said, "Man is still the best computer we can put aboard a spacecraft?and the only one that can be mass produced with unskilled labor." Nonetheless, intelligent technology is already impacting the workplace. Initially it has taken the dangerous and unpleasant jobs. As the technology improves and its costs become more competitive, it will assume the mind- less and repetitive tasks. It is no longer a question of if, but when. The transfer of work from man to machine is what the industrial revolution has been all about. The transplantation of intelligence to machines will redefine, for the second time in man's history, the concept of work. In reality, the movement of work off the shop floor began long ago. In 1899, non-production workers accounted for 7% of the manufacturing work force. By 1950, they represented 18% and in 1978, 28%. The trend since 1919 is illustrated in Figure 12. Blue-collar employment leveled off in 1960 and has been on a plateau since then (Figures 13-14). In 1900, the white-collar segment was 10% of the work force. Today it is 65%. Clerical occupations alone will increase 46% between 1970 and 1985 and will represent 20% of the work force by then.4 There will be few jobs unaffected by the high-tech system. Work will bear little resemblance to the sweat and muscle jobs of present factories. The United States will cease to be a nation of tool workers and will become a nation of knowledge workers. Operating automated assembly equipment is a good deal different then assembling pieces by hand. You have to use your head a lot more. Brawn doesn't mean a great deal in a world where robots do most of the heavy work. Interpersonal relationships will become more important in the high-tech environment. Work will become a team 75 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Figure 12 Ratio of Non-production Employment in Manufacturing 1919-1981 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 YEAR 81 87 73 79 Figure 13 Manufacturing Employment 1919-1981 20 18 16 14 12 0 =e 10 4 2 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 YEAR 76 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Figure 14 Ratio of Manufacturing to Total Employment 1939-1981 50 40 30 20 39 43 I I I I 47 51 55 59 63 YEAR 67 71 75 79 exercise. The old jobs discouraged thinking, but the complexity of the high-tech system will demand contribution from everyone. With expensive equipment, mistakes are costly, so job tension will be higher. Computers will provide performance data for each work station. In an environment where the worker already feels powerless, there is a high risk that "big brotherism," perceived or real, will be an issue of friction. The proximity to 1984 is somewhat ironic. The sexes will be much more equal, but the minority kids with no experience, inferior educations, and who are socially maladjusted?"the underclass"?will be at a great disadvantage. Gray-Collar Workers Today a gap (some would describe it as a gulf) exists between blue- and white-collar ranks. The high-tech factory will obliterate that distinction forever. This gap will be filled with clerical, scheduling, coordinating, engineering, and maintenance personnel plus computer technicians, sys- tems analysts, programmers, and jobs we don't have names for yet. These people will be specialists?staff support for the system. They are not blue- collar and really are not management; they are the ones I call grays. In order to be successful, work groups will have to be integrated teams in which each person contributes. There will not be room for arbitrary dis- tinctions based on rank. Work groups will not be regular. Assignments will vary with task and technical requirements, making conventional or- ganization impractical. 77 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Former blue-collar workers should, with retraining, be qualified for many of these new jobs. The knowledge they have gained working on the line will be invaluable. Compensation standards will change. Present jobs are paid on the basis of seniority, skill, or sweat. Workers will expect to be compensated for their contribution, not unlike salaried employees who are also required to think. The shift in values will doubtless provide some lively bargaining. In the 1960s, the computer added a new dimension to business man- agement. In many regards it created middle management. The high-tech system will create the gray collar and alter every job in the system. That is a great deal of change. There will, of course, be new jobs requiring new skills and specialized training. These specialists are already in short supply. Computer pro- gramming and systems application job opportunities are growing at 25% a year. Skilled tradesmen such as electricians are in demand. Young people will migrate to these jobs. Many of them shy away from the personal sacrificies demanded by the old production line and they are more com- fortable with the new technologies. There is little reason that experienced workers cannot be trained for these jobs as well. The issue, as always, is who will pay for it. Workers will become concerned about skill obsolescence. The functions that people perform will change more frequently as the rate of techno- logical change increases. Thus workers will need to be retrained more often. Although some jobs are "leapfrogged" and others are "fractured" as technology advances, there is little evidence that there are large dis- locations. It would seem beneficial for firms to consider a more permanent work force, selected for its ability to adapt to these changes. The turnover discontinuities we presently endure will be very disruptive to a trained and integrated work group. Increasing technological complexity does not necessarily increase worker skill requirements. In fact, it is usually just the opposite. We incorporate those complexities into our equipment and processes, making their op- eration, in most cases, more simple. Research conducted during the tech- nological changes of the 1950s and 1960s determined that technological change actually lowered skill requirements. James Bright reported in 1958: During the several years which I spent in the field research in so-called auto- mated plants . . . I did not find that the upgrading effect had occurred to anywhere near the extent that is often assumed . . . . On the contrary, there was more evidence that automation had reduced the skill requirements of the operating work force, and occasionally of the entire factory force including the maintenance organization . . . . In sum, I see little justification for the popular belief that present labor is employable in automated plants only with extensive retraining . . . .5 Fred Best wrote in 1973: The debate stems from the popular assumption during the 1950s and 1960s that technological advances would raise the skill requirements of future jobs and require the cultivation of a highly educated labor force. Today this assumption 78 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 is being challenged. It is true that new and highly complex forms of work are evolving. However, hard data gathered during the last two decades present strong arguments that with most work, skill requirements are remaining at the same level or even declining.' Management and Organization The substantial technological changes made by the computer-integrated factory will necessitate organizational and management adjustments in order to maximize its effectiveness. The most significant of these will be a reordering of the basic values and structure that have brought industrial society to its present position of power and success. The technological complexity of the new system, its sophisticated networking and overlap- ping functional responsibilities, in addition to its pace and need for flex- ibility, will be seriously crippled by a rigid decision-making hierarchy. With many interdisciplinary considerations involved in each decision, consensus-based systems are proving to be far more effective. In a system where each individual has a critical role, personal commitment and mo- tivation become crucial to the success of the group. The business community has survived and prospered for several cen- turies using an authoritarian hierarchy. Centralized authority and decision- making were manageable under the old linear production line; information theoretically flowed up and decisions and direction flowed down. Every- one did his job and did not worry a great deal about the next person. That concept has been modified, as we have realized the need for increased networking as manufacturing systems grew in complexity. The high-tech system will require a structure that is highly integrated and flexible. Each production cell will be a matrix of overlapping responsibilities as a myriad of operators, schedulers, maintenance people, programmers, etc., try to do their jobs. Each has a perspective that must be considered. This com- plexity, in addition to the pace of the operation, will simply not permit the one-person bottlenecks and bureaucratic barriers common in today's organizations. Most management people want better communication, and they work hard to get it. That is why management philosophy has been evolving away from authoritarianism. Virtually every management book written in the last 20 years has extolled the virtues of non-authoritarian management and correctly pointed out that the most effective leaders are noted for their ability to create and maintain conditions of consensus. Today even theory "Y" is being succeeded by more egalitarian concepts. Although we have not changed the vestiges of authority, our operating modes have been evolving in that direction. In an environment of rapid change, consensus organizations demonstrate greater effectiveness. A hierarchical pyramid does not adapt quickly. In fact, one of the strengths of the hierarchy is its ability to endure without changing. It can make decisions quickly, but deciding and doing are very different processes. The isolation of the decision-maker, the layers of bureaucracy, and the sheer size of organization combine to give the hi- erarchy enormous resistance to capricious influence. Unfortunately, they also serve to create institutional rigidity and a reluctance to change, often 79 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 in the face of obvious advantage. As Bennis and Slater, in their insightful assessment of organizational democracy, point out, ". . . it is only when the society reaches a level of technological development in which survival is dependent on the institutionalization of perpetual change that democracy becomes necessary . . . .7 Note their choice of the word necessary. The change from authoritarian hierarchy to an egalitarian form will not come from an idealistic desire for higher good but simply because the traditional structure, with its centralized decision-making, will be unable to remain competitive. Geographic decentralization will further deconcentrate decision-mak- ing. Without the need for expensive retooling and immense fixed pro- duction lines, facilities can be dispersed to reduce transport costs and inventories, access labor pools, and more directly serve regional markets. This speaks to a further decentralization of responsibility. Also, the more universal nature of general-purpose manufacturing cells means that the factory travels literally with its software. It seems a bit preposterous, but "manufacturing" could take on a briefcase portability. Certainly it will be more mobile. In a very simplified sense, the geographic dispersion of manufacturing need be limited only by product and raw material trans- portation. There is every reason to expect that these new technologies will make it easier for our growing list of foreign competitors, and thus for the continued outflow of American manufacturing. Another variation is the concept of contract manufacturing. Using pro- grammable technology, independent manufacturing organizations could contract their services to marketing firms much as we do now in the computer business for private-label manufacture. This could become the operating norm for manufacturing. In any case, producers will be anxious to contract out unused production time to help amortize capital costs. Although production may be decentralized, other functions may not. These new technologies will be expensive. The corporate conglomerate, with its ability to generate large blocks of capital, may be necessary to finance ventures of this kind. The fast pace and marketplace complexity that computer-integrated manufacturing could generate will call for some very sophisticated marketing and planning. Smaller firms may be able to compete with the large producers by carefully selecting a range of products or markets. Most of the advantage the large firm has today is in the power of its mass production and its ability to command market share. With significantly reduced production break-even costs, a smaller firm could market regionally and be price competitive. It will be necessary to move real decision-making "down" the orga- nization. One of the ironies of our present management system is that we have employees with high-quality information and no authority; and bosses with little good information and all the authority. Preempted from partic- ipation, subordinates are quick to criticize an erring management and feel little compulsion to shoulder the problem. Business people talk a lot about the delegation of authority, but as long as "the buck" stops somewhere upstairs, the people on the bottom are not going to take responsibility for it. A decentralized, highly integrated system moves decision-making closer 80 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 to the source of information. Managers and workers have finely tuned skills; each brings different information and a unique perspective to a problem. We need to get them together instead of erecting barriers between them. We need to learn to trust and respect our employees. The "glue" that can hold a decentralized organization together is a firmly held common purpose. The discussion of Japanese management is becoming a cliche, but there are some things that we can learn from their success. There is probably no more powerful?or more efficient?force on earth than a group of people who hold the same goals and ideals and who are willing to work for them. In an environment of rapid change there is nothing more adaptable. The most significant task a senior man- agement group could undertake would be the development of a corporate philosophy that would guide the entire organization in its efforts. This is the most powerful way in which a senior group can impact the organi- zation. In ancient Japan, the Hagakure was the bible of the Samurai warrior. I have always been impressed by one of its basic precepts: "It is because preparation has been long that a decision may be quickly reached." Management will be more important than it is today, but it will be different. Managing a consensus-based system requires different skills and a different approach to people than is commonly practiced in the West. I offer the following as desirable attributes for the manager of the not too distant future: 1. The patience to work in a context of complexity and pluralism. 2. The intellectual clarity to conceptualize a workable consensus. 3. The flexibility to revise conceptions. 4. The integrity to win the trust of contending forces. 5. The sensitivity to subtle variations in human attitudes and their changes. 6. The self-confidence to risk and to be spontaneous. 7. The persuasiveness to mobilize a constituency of willing allies in pursuit of goals that are tolerable for al1.8 The other critical management component of the future is employee commitment. The computer-integrated system makes each individual's contribution much more important. We can no longer afford the atmos- phere of ambivalence, sabotage, high turnover, and distrust that so often characterizes the manufacturing climate. Surveys point to the fear and powerlessness felt by today's employees. Feelings of this kind generate low aspirations, make them hostile, cause them to behave ineffectively, and encourage them not to risk.9 It troubles me to hear executives speak of the need for greater employee loyalty. Loyalty and allegiance are con- cepts whose roots originate in the obligations of a feudal vassal to his liege lord. It is this kind of power relationship that has created the barriers that exist today. The computer-integrated system needs grass-roots com- mitment?not just support. Man is an animal of both passion and intellect. We need to care about the things we do, else we become robots ourselves. And yet, we have created this compartmentalized, Taylorized, impersonal business hierarchy that robs employees of any real opportunity to possess their work and to 81 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: IA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 be responsible for its outcome. Mills wrote about the need for a craftsman to psychologically own his work in order to accept responsibility for its quality. This principle holds true for all of us. I recommend Frederick Herzberg's concept: "The employer's task is not to motivate his people to get them to achieve; he should provide opportunities for people to achieve, so they will become motivated." I? In 1980, General Motors received fewer than one suggestion per em- ployee per year. Toyota got 18. At GM, 22% of the employee suggestions were accepted; at Toyota, 90% were put to use. There is a considerable difference between the two systems concerning respect for the individual. It is a fundamental part of the Oriental culture, and their management practices demonstrate it. It is evidenced by their product quality, low absenteeism, and low turnover. They don't have unions because they don't need them. Management is going to have to become much more flexible in thinking as well as in organization. We often operate with what has made us successful rather than what is needed. The ability to adapt to an uncertain environment has always been important in competitive athletics and chess; it is becoming a critical necessity for business. Along with flexibility, management will have to be much more future oriented. We will have to raise our sights. Many business decisions are made today with a limited view toward year-end performance and return on investment, and the long- term consequences go unheeded. Short-term thinking is already a burden, and I believe it will become an onerous one in the future. We will have to be much more risk oriented, less hobbled by the restrictions of con- servative financial management. The future rewards those who move with it, as long as they do so prudently. Prudence, however, under the limiting influence of current philosophies, is proving to be far too conservative in a highly competitive, rapidly changing environment. The West is lagging in its adoption of computer-integrated technology. If a firm does not innovate, does not take the short-term risk, it runs the greatest risk of all, i.e., that of long-term obsolescence. We have some industries that are belatedly learning that lesson, and there isn't much they can do about it now. Conclusion George Bernard Shaw said, "The only thing men learn from history is that men learn absolutely nothing from history." Arguments are made during each period of technological change that it differs from the others, and yet, when it is over, we find that the pattern has remained intact. The vast majority of workers remain employed and skill requirements, if any- thing, are reduced. There are workers who get caught between the heaving tectonic plates of technological change. Their numbers are not large, but we have not provided the assistance they need in order to develop new skills. New technology creates jobs in numbers beyond anything previously experienced. New companies spring up utilizing the newly developed technologies and provide an economic and technological transformation to the entire economy. The social structure of the business community is 82 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 rewoven to manage these new developments. Society catapults to levels of consciousness, freedom, and social development previously unattain- able. Unfortunately, most of these changes are not readily discernible until they occur. There is a strong historical pattern of this societal growth, but it requires a leap of faith in humanity and a certain willingness to risk in order to accept its continuation without guarantees. The history of man's development has been far from perfect, and it is certainly open to criticism, as much contemporary literature will attest; but for all its flaws, it has been an amazingly successful process. The new robotic and computer technologies are simply another chapter in the ancient relationship between man and machine?freeing us from the limitations of our bodies, performing the routine and precise tasks for which we are ill equipped, and permitting us the freedom to pursue our unique human nature. Man and machine make far better companions than competitors. Economist Leo Cherne has said, "The computer is incredibly fast, accurate and stupid. Man is unbelievably slow, inaccurate and bril- liant. The marriage of the two is a force beyond calculation." ? Notes 1. Samuel Lilley, Men, Machines, and History, (New York: International Pub- lishing, 1965), pp. 320-322. 2. Louis T. Rader, "Automation Over The Years," Vital Speeches, No. 6, Vol. XLVII, 1981. 3. Charles E. Silberman & The Editors of Fortune, The Myths of Automation, (N.Y.: Harper & Row, 1966); Richard Nelson, Merton J. Peck, and Edward D. Kalachek, Technology, Economic Growth, and Public Policy, (The Brookings Insti- tution, 1967), pp. 99-100; John L. Enos, "Invention and Innovation in the Petroleum Refining Industry," in The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity, (Princeton: Univ. Press, 1962). 4. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. James R. Bright, "Does Automation Raise Skill Requirements?" Harvard Business Review, (July/Aug. 1958). 6. Fred Best, The Future of Work (NY: Prentice-Hall, 1973), p. 101. 7. Warren Bennis and Phillip Slater, "Organizational Democracy: Towards Work by Consent of the Employed," in Fred Best, The Future of Work (New York: Prentice- Hall, 1973), pp. 73-85. 8. Adapted from a letter from John Gardner to Joseph Slater, 3/23/78. 9. Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Men and Women of the Corporation, (NY: Basic Books, 1977). 10. Frederick Herzberg, "Putting People Back Together," Industry Week ,(July 24, 1979), p. 49. 83 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The Future of Management by William Exton, Jr. No aspects of the future can be of greater importance than the nature of and the requirements for management. As that class or form of behavior which affects, in one way or another, the interests and lives of all of us? as well as the utilization of most of the resources upon which we all depend?it must continue to play a critical part in determining the char- acter and patterns of work; the kind and availability and distribution of goods and services; and the nature of the tangible and intangible incentives that motivate contribution to the general economy. Only governments, natural or man-made catastrophes, or major alter- ations in the environment can exert more potent effects than does?and will?the practice of management: the performance of those who manage others?at any level, and for any purpose. All organizations may be regarded as in some degree productive of goods and/or services; but it is logical to regard management as classifiable according to whether it operates in an economically oriented environment, or within some form of governmental activity, or in a "non-profit" or- ganization. Such distinctions may be blurred under conditions other than those fostering or permitting "free enterprise"; but the managers in so- cialist environments are still constrained to apply generally recognized principles of management, so far as feasible, to the extent that their goals parallel those of the managers of and in organizations operating for the usual capitalist objectives of maximizing productivity and optimizing profit through market-oriented strategies and policies. This paper considers the future of management in terms of the probable adaptation and development of currently effective practices in view of known or detectable trends, and of the anticipated effects of the current or predictable availability of new or imminent technological resources. It does not consider the possible effects of major political or sociological change, or of basic modifications in the organization of the economy as a whole. Management has been changing in so many different ways, and in William Exton, Jr., is the principal of William Exton, Jr., and Associates, Management Consultants, in New York City. 84 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 response to so many different conditions, factors, and influences, that any responsible attempt at prediction must aim at presenting the resultant of many diverse forces. Even such an extremely complex undertaking is further complicated by such considerations as these: ? The functions of management are increasingly numerous and com- plex. ? There are many "theories" of management. ? The size, scope, and actual or potential geographical dispersion of many organizations impose new or extended managerial requirements. ? The diversity of products, services and markets makes special de- mands on the management of many companies. ? The acceleration of technological innovation imposes a growing need for creativity, alertness, sophistication of competition, and efficient con- duct and exploitation of research and development. ? Persistent enlargement of scale and great?even exponential?in- crements in complexity and diversity affect most considerations confront- ing management. One way to organize an attempt to project management into the future is to consider?more or less separately, though they are functionally interrelated?what are generally regarded as major functions of manage- ment. These are commonly listed as planning, organizing, leading (co- ordinating), and controlling. Let us then look at what the future holds for these basic managerial functions. Planning It is easy to foresee that the planning function of management will involve increasing exploitation of computer capabilities. The two primary effects will be the increase in and approved availability of information; and a quantum advance in the techniques of and resources for mathematical modeling. These areas of progress will be further enhanced by ever more helpful computer graphics, both for the more effective display of information, and for visual demonstration of?and, often, replacing the need to cal- culate?the effects of various factors on mathematically modeled situa- tions. None of this, of course, will totally eliminate the necessity for the application of personal values and judgment and for the making of many decisions. And it will require greatly increased capabilities for the creation of ever more sophisticated software and programming. It will also demand a very high degree of sophistication and perceptiveness on the part of the users of such resources and techniques, especially to identify, recognize, and allow for the dissimilarities between models and reality. There are those who are troubled by the assumption that "everything is quantifiable" and who believe that intangibles and unrecognized, un- allowed-for variables will continue to assert themselves in the real world? confounding and frustrating those who rely too completely on the rigidities often characteristic of the so-called "management sciences." To the de- gree that mathematical models fail to parallel, significantly and relevantly, the reality they are intended to represent, the results and derivatives of 85 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 such modeling must also diverge from reality?possibly, even, to a much greater degree. As for the fundamental dimension of all planning?time?it is likely that the future will see progress in several directions, each of which will involve changes (adjustment, adaptation, or basically different evalua- tions) in the perception of time and of its effect on planning and on activities planned for. In these developments, a certain paradox will appear as many activities and operations, now quite time consuming, will be accomplished with far greater rapidity?many of them virtually instan- taneously. And some functions that have had to be exercised sequentially or alternatively will be carried out simultaneously?and also integratedly, if appropriate. At the same time, planning will be based on broader and longer per- spectives. Despite the generally accelerating rate of change, computer- based analyses working on greatly expanded data banks?and with pro- gramming that represents both factually detected trends, anticipated de- velopments, and/or meticulously delineated potential contingencies?will provide more valid projections over longer ranges. And these, processed against carefully defined assumptions, will contribute to the formulation of strategies, policies, programs, project designs, and many other products of managerial functioning. Organizing The nature of all organizations, and perhaps especially of business organizations, will change in the future as the result of both technological and sociological change?and probably also as the nature of work, specific tasks, and working relationships also change. 1. Technological change will have many different kinds of effects. Among them: ? Larger capital investment in facilities, per individual worker. ? Closer integration of work and working relationships?especially vertically (between higher and lower levels) and horizontally (between remote and differentiated but interacting functions) as a result of ever more elaborate electronic interconnections and computer tie-ins, and extended systematization. ? Shared experience in training for and utilization of advanced equip- ment, even when functions and responsibilities differ and participants may be some levels apart. ? Shift of worker evaluation from previously valued attributes to those applicable to tasks of the future?primarily utilization of computers, ro- bots, and related equipment. 2. Sociological changes will also affect personnel in many ways. ? Impersonality of many working and selling relationships will result increasingly from greater use of electronic interfacing, teleconferencing, elaborated telephonic capabilities, electronic mail, etc. ? Individuals will increasingly identify with the elaborate equipment that makes their functioning possible. They will tend to feel lost, pow- erless, and inadequate without it. This will be enhanced when "cause and effect" are not as obviously related, in the working situation, as they are 86 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 now with most mechanical and even most electrically operated equipment. ? Organizational structure will change, adapting to the processes and systems developed to exploit technological advances. Organizations will have fewer hierarchical levels, though perhaps more horizontally func- tioning components with differentiated functions. Intermediate and directly supervisory levels will need greater appreciation of overall organizational functioning; they will have to evaluate the effectiveness of integration of their contributions in relation to the organization as a whole, rather than merely conform to the standards imposed on their output. "Span of con- trol" potentials will be enlarged. ? In many situations, qualifying for specific positions will be subject to exacting tests. Such considerations as seniority will tend to become obsolete, as age and sex become irrelevant; and demonstrated capability (innate, or acquired by special education, or by training and/or experience), adaptability, and motivation will become the governing criteria for per- sonnel selection and assignment. ? The prospective (and incipient) changes in working hours (decreases, flexibility) and in place of work (own home, etc.) will also require or- ganizational changes?especially in delegation, in the nature and authority of supervision, and in the evaluation and the control of work performed. ? Meanwhile, the innovative trends toward work redesign, team pro- duction, and the involvement of worker initiatives in the enhancement of productivity and quality will exert substantial, and probably synergistic, effects on organizational character. Leading This term is such a "high-order abstraction" that it symbolizes many quite different forms of activity?from personal command of troops in battle to the creation of exemplary (or popular, commercially successful) works of art. In the future it is likely that, in the context of management, the term "leadership" will be applied to: ? Effective, successful innovation in hardware, software, applications, techniques, design, services, or other aspects of high-technology opera- tions. ? Predominance in any significant field?as signified by size, sales volume, profitability, "style," "class," "status," distinctive marketing, or other characteristics of a favorable organizational "image." ? Individuals, groups, or firms that manifest (in the context of contri- bution to or management of high technology) the "old-fashioned virtues" that traditionally won the accolade of "leadership." Such leadership will be increasingly difficult to assert and make apparent, in the impersonal context of electronically interconnected working relationships. It was easy?though risky?for King Henry of Navarre to demonstrate leadership directly and personally, by inviting his retainers to follow the white plume on his helmet into the thickest of the fight. And his dem- onstration of courage in daring that risk, as well as his potent fighting ability, set an example that so motivated his men?and so intimidated his enemies?as to ensure his victory. But it is difficult to find a real parallel 87 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 for such direct, personal, and dramatic leadership by example in busi- ness?past, present, or future. The growing impersonality of electronically mediated interaction and the context of tasks focused on electronic or electronically controlled processes will minimize the opportunity for the exercise of leadership above that required for appropriate but routine management. However, in that same context, the manifestation of admirable personal characteristics, the demonstration of competence to meet emergencies and to relate con- structively to subordinates and leaders, will all amount to the kind of leadership that can exert positive, optimizing effects upon the operations involved. Furthermore, it is foreseeable that most workers will be performing their duties in a relatively dull, symbol-dominated, remote-from-the-action environment. The display of attractive, interesting, and admirable personal characteristics in such an environment?so long as it is not distracting, disturbing, or disruptive?may be an important psychological "plus" for the routine-ridden workers. The "humanizing" of management may well become a major requirement for success in many future activities and operations. Coordination has generally been regarded as a major aspect of lead- ership, and coordination will be increasingly required by the increasing complexity of operations and activities to be foreseen. But computers, programs, and perhaps mathematical modeling can greatly facilitate at least the specification (and?usually?the execution) of who, what, where, when, how, with what, etc. Communication is the most essential tool of management?and there can be no leadership without it. Future managements will have far superior high-technology facilities for communication. The future may also reveal the extent to which and the ways in which management can satisfactorily supersede the unique and natural face-to-face mode of communication without a serious?if intangible?loss. Controlling The term "control" has been grossly abused. At one extreme?that of corporate cost controllers, accountants, and financial executives?it refers to the availability of data purportedly representative of certain quantitative aspects of ongoing activities and of corporate operations generally. But such "controls" are mere numerical symbols?cues for action, but not, by themselves, capable of effecting change, or of any other initiative. At the other extreme, "control'Ldenotes actual exertion of the capability to direct and to change an ongoing situation (being "in control"?whether or not this involves the use of or reference to data). And, in between, the same term refers to the physical means or the intermediary agencies whereby or through which direction and change are effectuated. In the future, management will benefit by important advances in all three of these aspects of control. Advances in computerization are already providing the means for re- cording, storing, processing, and retrieving data essential to knowledge 88 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 of ongoing operations and significant situations?and can do so on a current, "real time" basis. Advances in the means of communication and in the interconnection of communication facilities and systems will render the input and reporting of data ever more timely. Advances in the pro- duction and transmission of graphics (process generated, operator guided, or combinations of these) will make transmissions increasingly meaningful and more easily and rapidly evaluated. Improved instrumentation and the further development of automatically functioning control mechanisms?with applications not now feasible, and with the potential for reacting to phenomena, conditions, or computerized interventions not now feasible?will relieve managers (as well as non- managerial operations) of more and more elements of their responsibilities, leaving only those diminishing but ultimately irreducible matters involving value judgments and discretionary decisions. And, finally, the specific exertions of control by managerial intervention will be far better informed?not only as to relevant current detail, but also via projections of alternative courses?based on far more elaborate and complex models, and more probably programmed modifications thereof, than any available today. The composite result of this threefold advance will be to provide greatly enhanced assurance that plans will be carried out far more faithfully than at present. But this advantage should necessitate not only the fullest and most detailed care in planning but also the recognition that the planners must rely less on adaptation, adjustment, trial-and-error, and other mod- ifications in the implementation of plans, since it will be easier to automate' controlling factors than to provide the evaluative and discretionary sen- sitivity necessary to maintain the flexibility now both usual and essential. Another way to organize the development of ideas about the future of management is to consider the various theories of management and the related sciences, disciplines, or fields of knowledge associated with them. Harold Koontz in "The Managerial Jungle Revisited" (Academy of Management Review) identifies and comments on 13 differentiated the- ories of management (including one, Operational, which purports to com- bine all others). Certain academic disciplines?more or less well-defined fields of knowledge, scholarship, and research?are associated with these theories. And it is reasonable to assume that the theories of management will gain or lose influence?and consequent effect upon the performance of managers?as the related disciplines develop or regress and as they are determined to be more or less relevant to and supportive of actual man- agerial processes. Accordingly, some indications of the future of management can prob- ably be gained by projecting the future of these several identified academic disciplines, and deducing from such projections the effects upon man- agement?or at least on the current theories of management, and thus upon the exercise of management guided by such theories. Here is a listing (derived from Koontz) of the major academic disciplines generally considered to be more or less relevant to the exercise of man- agement, together with those theories of management to which they are especially related: 89 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Field of Knowledge Decision Theory Economic Theory General Systems Theory Mathematics Political Science Sociology Social Psychology Cultural Anthropology Psychology Industrial Engineering Theory of Management Rational Choice Rational Choice Applied Systems Management Sciences Cooperative Social Systems Group Behavior Group Behavior Group Behavior Interpersonal Behavior Socio-Technical Systems In addition, there is, of course, that special field of knowledge concerned with actual situations and contingencies experienced by various enter- prises, and with the study of the roles of individual managers, or groups of managers, under various conditions. This, together with applicable elements of all the fields listed above, relates to the so-called Operational approach to a theory of management?obviously a theory that purports to be virtually comprehensive. It seems impracticable to project realistically what the future may bring in each of these fields of knowledge; to foresee how all such developments may impinge upon and interact with one another; and to anticipate ade- quately the resulting effects upon the practice of management. But, to the degree that such projections may be feasible, competent, and valid, they may be applied?at least hypothetically?to the managerial functions discussed above. In this way, it should be possible to arrive at some degree of prevision of what may characterize at least some aspects of management and of what may be required of managers in the future. 90 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: .7,1A-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Education for Managers of Accelerating Change by George Korey We are now living in an era of very profound and fast changes, when the computer is a link between human expertise and the advanced world of mechanical and electronic technology. We are witnessing many changes that will transform our world during our lifetime in a dramatic way that cannot be compared to revolutions of the past. All of the previous revo- lutions of mankind have involved mainly changes in the distribution of power and property within a society. The approaching technological rev- olution will affect us in this way, too, but it will also affect the essence of our individual and social existence. It will have tremendous conse- quences for the way and the meaning of our life. It is far easier to speak of the past than the future; we have no experience of the future. Nevertheless, we must speculate about it and try to visualize the changes it will bring, as we are educating a new generation that will live in a completely different world. In North America, more than in any other part of the world, we live today in a society that is shaped?from the cultural, social, psychological, and economic points of view?by the far-reaching impact of science and, technology. The computer has become a major force behind the accel- eration of knowledge acquisition and the storage of this knowledge. There are clear indications that, during the next few decades, the human brain will become more and more powerful. Through the use of computers, people will also acquire additional powers that will expand the boundaries of human reasoning and potential. Man will have the capacity to determine the sex of his children. Through the use of new pharmaceutical products, he will have the capacity to influence and expand memory potential and the intelligence of his children. To meet the challenge of the approaching change, businessmen will have to forget about the "trial and error" ap- proach. They will have to learn to use all possible and available man- agement devices and scientific tools, thereby improving their process of decision-making and permitting a greater degree of precision. Alvin Toffler, in his book Future Shock, said: George Korey is president of the Canadian School of Management in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 91 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17 : CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 In the technological systems of tomorrow?fast, fluid and self-regulating? machines will deal with the flow of physical materials; men with the flow of information and insight. Machines will increasingly perform the routine tasks; men the intellectual and creative tasks. The technology of tomorrow requires not millions of lightly lettered men, ready to work in unison at endlessly repetitive jobs; it requires not men who take orders in unblinking fashion, aware that the price of bread is mechanical submission to authority, but men who can make critical judgements, who can weave their way through novel environments, who are quick to spot new re- lationships in the rapidly changing reality. In just a few years, we will be facing a world quite different from the one in which we live today. As a result of changes that will come, we must strive to make life better from the environmental, social, and eco- nomic point of view. There is no question that, as a result of technological progress, we can claim beneficial results, such as: ? improved health care ? the ability to harness and use energy ? a longer life-span (primarily in developed countries) ? replacement of manual labor by machines ? advances in mass audio-video and satellite communications ? progress in transportation and methods of travel on land, sea, and in the air ? improved production techniques and systems ? vastly improved access to knowledge and a generally better educated population ? the ability to manage complex physical and social systems ? increased per capita income. But resulting from these achievements are certain accompanying prob- lems, or "mixed blessings," that progress brings. These include: ? a certain loss of privacy ? erosion of traditional values ? dehumanization of ordinary work ? centralization of technological systems ? proliferation of weapons ? air, noise, land, and water pollution ? accelerated depletion of the earth's resources. It seems that the abundance of material goods in technologically de- veloped countries may have contributed to the growing scarcity of non- material goods?such as time, wisdom, stability, ethical values, and the influence that people exercise over certain areas: We have a lot less time than people who lived before us. While we are bombarded with a lot of irrelevant information, the wis- dom to make right decisions is not increasing. Stability is decreasing, with very quick changes in the character of whole communities. Ethical values are often neglected by contemporary society. Influence and impact that people could have on social systems is decreasing. The challenge for educators and for managers of future change is to 92 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 make technology more responsive to our needs?so that it will provide us with solutions to social problems as well. We have to balance our increased capacity to use knowledge for practical purposes with a sensi- tivity to human needs, an increase in human concern and ethical values to serve mankind. An analysis of historical and current trends will help us master the future. Certain trends will probably continue (e.g., the overall growth of world population; the growth of human knowledge; the democratization of education; a trend toward further industrialization, specialization, and professionalization; the growth of leisure time; and cultural homogeni- zation. While technological progress may have some unpleasant side-effects, it is nevertheless essential for us to maintain the human side of this process, a high quality of life, by developing a matching change mechanism in the evaluation of concurrent human progress. In order to accommodate business and industry to the needs of evolving society, we need people who will know what must be done and who will plan and think about how it should be done. Obviously, managers in the future must assume a more active and creative role in attacking the ills afflicting the business world and the whole of society in general. What this means, of course, is: (1) industrialists and businessmen must recognize the world outside their offices and respond to the challenges presented to them; (2) in order to master change, we have to understand the long-range goals of society and the mechanisms of control over the forces of change; (3) we have to educate managers of accelerating change. Linkage must be found between business and higher education through an acceptance of the industry's needs, an assessment approach, and the acknowledgement by universities of the lifelong learning concept and the idea of experiential learning. The role of our generation will be to find an intellectual depth and a philosophical meaning in the technological age. The success of this search is vital?so that man and science may co-exist, so that man may still be happy, and so that society may adapt itself to the requirements of a changing age and to the social needs of the future world. These changes of the new technological age?changes that will affect all of us personally?are already affecting, in a different way, the world of business and of industry. There are already certain signs indicating that the role of executives in North American business is being altered by these revolutionary forces that have had an unprecedented impact on methods of business manage- ment. The first of these trends has been the rapidly accelerating democrati- zation of society that has opened opportunities of advancement for people of ability, people who increasingly insist on and enjoy the right of par- ticipation in basic decision-making. The result has been a demand, voiced loud and clear by middle management, for a meaningful role in company planning and a real opportunity to contribute importantly to that decision- making. 93 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The second revolutionary force reshaping management practices is the information explosion, which forces the senior executive to rely more and more on his subordinates. Faced with today's new technology, every executive must learn to know what he does not know, and be prepared to curb his natural self-assertiveness. A third force modifying the present-day style of executive leadership is the sheer bigness of business. Mass marketing has contributed to an enormous growth of business, not only in sales and income but also in the kinds of business activities, because of the diversification of compa- nies. This diversification on top of growth will unavoidably broaden mid- dle management's powers of decision-making. Similarly, it will further reduce the number of decisions the president of the company alone can reach in any one of the many businesses in which his corporation competes. The fourth trend that has altered techniques of business management in recent years is the worldwide expansion of business opportunity, based in large measure on an insatiable demand for consumer goods among all income groups. The global approach to business forces executives to direct operations that may take place in several different industries or markets, each with its own unique requirements for success. These new forces I have cited combine to limit the old-fashioned style of business leadership and to put stress not only on the senior executive's decision-making power, but on his ability to unleash the decision-making power of the company's middle management personnel. In view ?)f the changes that have already occurred and the rapid accel- eration of new changes and demands that management will face during this and the next decade, how are business schools responding to the challenge to educate future managers who will be able to manage the change? The answer to this question requires a closer look at both traditional and alternative approaches to management education in our universities and colleges. From the point of view of adult professional men and women, education is often seen as the acquisition of the art of the utilization of knowledge. As such, it constitutes a vital and necessary element in an individual's life. Educational programs recognizing prior learning and work experience provide an answer to the needs of mature students who already know what they wish to make of their lives and who are looking for the best, most direct way of equipping themselves for it. As a proponent of managerial andragogy, I see that pioneering schools which think in terms of preparing managers for the future are starting now to play an essential role in this process by: ? Offering alternative educational programs based on the recognition that practical experience has a definite educational value that can be awarded credit in the pursuit of higher education, and that experiential learning in the form of past and current work experience can be assessed for academic credit toward a diploma or degree when doc- umented. ? Preparing adults who already have considerable business and profes- sional experience for managerial positions in their own field through 94 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 career-oriented degree, diploma, or certificate programs that combine specific educational objectives with academic excellence and integ- rity. ? Providing opportunities, through seminars and intensive continuing education, for the upgrading of professional qualifications and keep- ing up with the "state of the art" of management and to meet the accreditation needs of the growing professional credentialing move- ment. ? Undertaking and supporting research activities in the areas of busi- ness, industry, public, and health sector. They see education as a lifelong process that must be related to the varied needs of people at different stages of their lives. They recognize that adults who know what they want to learn can learn what they need effectively and quickly. Many adults, who have extensive practical work experience and had no opportunity to complete their university education, are now demanding that their managerial experience be validated and that they be allowed to complete their work toward a degree in a non-traditional way by combining a credit for prior learning, both formal and informal (management de- velopment, continuing education, professional association, industrial and government programs), and credits for practical managerial work expe- rience. Traditional post-secondary education has been based on certain key assumptions that do not appear to be universally applicable today, espe- cially to many businessmen and other working professionals who wish to continue their education: 1. It was assumed that post-secondary education followed immediately on completion of secondary school program. Consequently, an over- whelming majority of students were young, with very little or no practical experience in any aspect of business or professional life. 2. It was thought that the main function of post-secondary education was to develop mainly general skills and approaches, to provide the student with a theoretical background that, it was presumed, he would then be able to utilize in business and the professions. In this way the school was believed to prepare the student for life and career. 3. Programs, curricula, and admission procedures all reflected this basic educational philosophy. They were based largely on clearly defined subject areas and curriculum units. Students proceeded in a definite order from one unit to another, and completed one educational level before being admitted to another. These basic trends in educational theory and practice were so prevalent, so entrenched, that to most people they seemed based on age-old traditions, representing the only "natural" way of acquiring an education. But, in fact, as any student of the history of education knows, this is a mistaken view. Education over many centuries took many forms, most of them based on principles other than the ones that we have learned to accept as nearly "self-evident." It might be argued that many of the "new" trends in post-secondary education represent in fact a revival of some very ancient insights and 95 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 approaches. We might even say that we are experiencing a renaissance of the truly traditional, practitioner-oriented approach to education that was prevalent before comparatively modern times in most areas of the world. Whatever the case may be, the merit of these new, or not so new, trends lies in the fact that they reflect the changing needs and patterns of our own time. They are characterized by breaking away from the high school-to-university-to-career model by the introduction of new ap- proaches to assessment and evaluation of educational achievement, by the recognition of the value of experiential learning, by the tendency to com- bine theoretical, classroom learning with actual professional practice, and to look at the actual learning process less from the point of view of compartmentalized subject areas and more in terms of the total situation confronting the student in his professional work as well as in other areas of his life. These new ways of looking at educational theory and practices received much of their initial impetus from the changes that have occurred in the last 25 years or so within the student population and especially the growing number of adult students attending centers of post-secondary education. In view of the complexity of today's business and approaching change, increasing numbers of adults find it not only helpful but even necessary to go back to school to provide an essential step to further professional development and success and to be able to manage the approaching change. Education in business management still occurs, for the most part, within the framework of the traditional approach to education. This entails class- room instruction in which the instructor plays the leading role and scope for discussion is limited. The emphasis is on teaching theory. While such an approach might be sufficient for young students without significant work experience who are looking for entry-level positions, it is not good enough for people already in management positions. Little concerted effort is made to make the program more useful to these students with practical experience. Whatever the work experience, it is never counted towards credit. Instead, the mature professional must successfully complete a pre- scribed number of courses to obtain a degree in management. When in 1964 the Union for Experimenting Colleges and Universities was established in the United States, it marked the beginning of an al- ternative approach to education in North America as these colleges and universities began offering what were termed "nontraditional" courses. Nontraditional or alternative educational programs are characterized by the belief that credit should be granted for documented, relevant work experience and learning acquired outside the college setting. Instruction is given in tutorials scheduled on Saturdays or evenings so that students in the work force do not have to sacrifice work and earnings to continue their education. The faculty, committed to the view that theory should be combined with practice, promotes the participation of students in the learning process by having them relate theoretical principles to their work experiences. In Canada, an alternative approach to management education is offered by the Canadian School of Management. Founded in Toronto in 1976, 96 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 and affiliated with Northland Open University, the school offers bachelor degree programs in business management and health administration and an Executive M.B.A. program. In all its programs, the emphasis is on meeting the needs of mature students by combining theoretical knowledge with practical experience, and in meeting the needs of the business, in- dustry, public, and health sectors in preparing a cadre of experienced managers who will be able to manage accelerating change. In Europe and the United States, considerable effort has been expended on the education of managers, and companies have developed in-house training programs for their managers. In the past, successful completion of such programs was not considered to be credit-worthy by universities and colleges. This situation has changed with the advent of the U.S. Program on Noncollegiate Sponsored Instruction. The program shows how colleges may grant credit towards a degree to persons who have success- fully completed "educational programs and courses sponsored by non- collegiate organizations, including business and industry, government, and labor unions." Thus, this program makes post-secondary education more accessible to persons of all ages, and allows managers to validate their experience obtained outside of the traditional college classroom. By making higher learning more accessible to working managers and by combining theory with practice in instruction, the nontraditional ap- proach offers a means of increasing the flexibility of managers, individ- ually and collectively. Thus, in the modern business environment, where the ability to adapt to changing conditions is crucial, the nontraditional approach harmonizes well with the needs of the business community for management education. A growing percentage of the student population today is composed of working adults who wish and often have to continue their education, but who only rarely can afford to interrupt their careers to go back to school as full-time students. In response to ever increasing knowledge specialization and organiza- tional complexity, as well as the need to upgrade the competency of managers, it makes obvious sense to continue one's professional career while studying, not only for financial reasons, but also from the point of view of making one's education truly relevant to one's professional and other needs. But in order to accommodate and truly serve this type of student, some basic changes must be introduced into the traditional post- secondary educational system. New programs, new procedures, and new emphases are needed. They mean a departure from the concepts of pe- dagogy?or teaching of young people?and acceptance of the concept of andragogy?development of adults. The following changes and new approaches seem most essential in this modern, alternative approach to management education, if we seriously think of preparing and educating managers for the accelerating change: 1. Traditional admission procedures and requirements must be modified. Evaluation of students' achievements should not be limited to formal courses taken at academic institutions and credits granted for largely classroom learning. Professional experience should also be given formal credit recognition. In other words, a student who has had an opportunity 97 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 of developing skills and acquiring knowledge in any given field should be able to translate that achievement into credits if he applies to an ed- ucational institution for admission. This seems to be a minimum require- ment. Traditional educational institutions cannot be blamed for being suspi- cious of some of these new trends in credit-granting and pointing out possibilities of abuse. Nevertheless, some acceptance of experiential learn- ing seems inevitable and necessary. It is incumbent on schools with non- traditional approaches to explore these new admission procedures, while at the same time making absolutely sure that high educational standards are maintained. 2. Changes are needed in the curriculum planning and educational requirements in academic institutions, especially those whose student populations contain a considerable percentage of adult professionals. Actual professional and other relevant experiences of every student should be given full weight and academic credit. Many skills assumed completely in young high school graduates should be recognized in more experienced adult students. The principle, therefore, must be to add to, to build upon, already existing skills and learning experiences, to organize and sort out the student's knowledge and to provide the means of developing it further. Curriculum planning should be flexible enough to reflect the individual student's needs and background. Proven and obvious competence should be viewed as equivalent to some course work. For example, it would make little sense to require an experienced accountant to take a course in basic accounting just because a curriculum set up for mainly inexperienced students prescribes it, or for the same reason, to ask a personnel manager in charge of a large department to take an introductory course in personnel administration. This may seem obvious, and yet there are still very few academic institutions, at least in Canada, that are willing to grant academic recognition to experiential learning. In fact, this feature of the Canadian School of Management program and the keystone of its educational ap- proach still raises quite a few academic eyebrows and causes much mis- understanding of its policies. The point is not to give credit away, but to give it where it is due. 3. Another very important feature of adult professional education should be to allow the student to set up his own goals and his own timetable whenever possible. As mentioned above, a program of studies can, and often should, be combined with a full-time professional career, and it should in fact take advantage of the learning possibilities offered by a day-to-day pursuit of a profession. Curricula should be structured around experiential learning wherever possible, rather than in competition or conflict with it. 4. Credentialing of professionals (or certifying an individual's level of competence, knowledge, skills, and professional experience) is a new and growing force of change. The credentialing process, often administered by professional societies, government agencies, and other organizations, presents a tremendous opportunity to progressively oriented post-secondary educational institutions as they face the ap- proaching change. Licensing and regulation by governments concerning 98 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 such professions as engineering, medicine, management consulting, nurs- ing, or accounting have been instituted for public protection. The newly developing credentialing movement?a growing force for change?occurs not only for legal, health, liability, or safety reasons. As a result of competition and complexity in business, as well as the desire to better manage technological change, new professional groups and organized associations have emerged and will continue to grow (groups such as financial or economic analysts, computer programmers, strategic planners, insurance consultants, fellows in banking, real estate, profit planners, social economists, human resources managers, business presenters, health service executives, career planners, social work executives, organization development managers, manpower forecasters, environment engineers, etc.). The scope of the credentialing movement currently exceeds 50 creden- tialing groups. As the awareness, knowledge, and commitment to the professional credentialing idea grows, continuing professional education will be the direction of many schools of management to assist such groups in upgrading qualifications, testing, and maintenance of established cre- dentials?as many professional organizations will regard credentialing not only as a tool for the advancement of their membership, but also as a gauge of higher reputation of their organizations in the eyes of the public. These are the basic changes of approach to post-secondary professional education that some of us are trying to explore and introduce. Some traditional educators view these trends with suspicion, fearing that they might lead to lowering of educational standards and goals. Yet it seems to us that these fears, however understandable, are not well founded. An experienced adult student, actively engaged in professional work, is surely less likely to accept poor teaching and lower standards than a young, inexperienced student, used to being a passive recipient of a product to which he is in many cases quite indifferent. There are, of course, certain difficulties that many adult students face to a greater degree perhaps than young high school graduates. Some adults have been away from any kind of formal education for a considerable number of years and may lack certain skills and techniques of learning generally available to younger students. They also have a tendency to underestimate their ability to cope with educational procedures and requirements. Some?very few?tend to ov- erestimate it. But it seems to me that these difficulties are more than compensated for by the adult student's motivation, maturity of judgment, and ability for independent effort; furthermore, his professional and gen- eral life experience is an extremely important and largely untapped edu- cational resource. It is the primary function of progressive educational institutions, fully aware of the demands that the accelerating change makes on us, the management educators, to give experiential education full weight and to utilize it in their educational policies and practice. In the time of change that we are facing, a manager whose sole claim to his position is technical competence will become obsolete. He will be replaced by a new type of manager who combines excellent technical background with good business practices and a profit-oriented approach. 99 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 He must also understand the problems of ecology and the growing demands of the environment. The new type of manager will understand computers and the benefits of scientific management, but he will also have to concentrate more on the problems of human-resource management. It is not enough nowadays to produce profits for the corporation and, at the same time, to disregard social problems, conservation, environmental pollution, the problems of inefficiency in government bureaucracy, or blatant incompetence all around us. The manager of the future will be aware that his leadership qualities contribute to the community and country, and to his ability to produce profits. These criteria will, in turn, be used to measure his own overall performance. The manager who develops the motivated team of people in the orga- nization of tomorrow will reconcile the requirements of the company with the needs of its individual members. The manager of the future will have an array of devices, techniques, and tools available to him to assist in the decision-making process and he will be proficient in their use. Computers, which have scarcely begun to reveal their potential, will be developed to an extent that will permit future managers to couple human expertise in the most advanced mechanical and electronic technology with our rather limited knowledge of our highest capability?that of thinking. Only in this way can we learn the extent of the computer's flexibility and evaluative powers in order to make far better use of it. To meet the challenge of the future, a new discipline or field of study has to be introduced. I am now working on introducing such a program at the Canadian School of Management. I call it Managerial Futuristics. I would like to share with you the proposed definition of this program, as it is pertinent to the topic we are discussing. Managerial futuristics is a future-oriented discipline and activity based on the philosophy of futurism and the intellectual exploration of a future that seeks to identify, analyze, and evaluate possible changes and devel- opments in human life and the world from the point of view of managerial leadership. The basic assumption of the proposed course is that people can make meaningful forecasts about the future, if they take the trouble to understand fully the present conditions and trends in business, life, society, and the world in general. It is the objective of the proposed course to assist them in the process. We are aware of the importance of the future. The past is gone; the present exists only as a short moment. Traditionally, scholars study the past and are not interested in the future. The crises of today have resulted from past failures to deal with emerging problems. We can do very little to improve the present world, because basic changes require time. We do have, however, the power to influence the future. By their very nature, managers are future-oriented, because management decisions of today affect the future. The important role of managerial futuristics is to provide a useful framework for decision-making and planning by developing rea- 100 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 sonable assumptions about the future (expressed in terms -of probability or possibility rather than certainty), based on an assessment of present conditions, the identification of future dangers and opportunities, sug- gesting alternative approaches to issues and evaluating alternative policies and actions?thus realizing that new future possibilities are open to us and increase the extent of our choice. I see the need for the study and research of the possible impact of future technological, economic, and social developments and an assessment of their consequences for management people. Such a course would prepare management leaders to live in a changing technological, economic, and social world; it would develop their understanding of man's environment, the fundamentals of modern technology, genetics, evolution, and popu- lation dynamics; it would provide a better understanding of man and society, human progress, ecology, social psychology, changing occupa- tional patterns, education, and employment; it would increase personal competence, develop access to information, and encourage independent learning styles. It would also assist in developing more effective com- munication for better management and an enhanced understanding of man- agement strategic planning as a tool for dealing with the problematique of future change in all its dimensions (composite strategic planning, op- erational management planning, and tactical planning), seen through the prism of social responsibility of managerial leadership of the future. I hope that a Managerial Futuristics program will play an important role in preparing managers of the accelerating change. I would unhesitatingly list the following basic rules: I. Understanding people. 2. Need for vision, courage, and creativity. 3. Ability to delegate properly. 4. Ability to make sound decisions. An understanding of people is one of the most vital attributes to man- agerial success, and will not lose its importance in times of change. Instead, it will become more and more important in the management of future change. Executives must understand why people act and react as they do; they must provide positive motivation for employees, derived from the higher needs and aspirations of human beings to develop. On the contrary, per- formance that arises from fear or insecurity is a result of negative moti- vation that should be eliminated completely from the sphere of industrial relations. Such performance, based on negative motivation, vanishes im- mediately anyway as soon as the threat disappears. The manager of tomorrow will have to learn to identify drive as the highest priority for each of his employees, drive that can contribute most to the well-being of both the individual and the company. Thus, short- term and long-term positive motivation can be developed, and so lead to the identification of employees' personal ambitions with those of the organization. A second vital attribute is the need for vision, courage, and creativity to make changes and to meet requirements imposed by changing times. Progress is the law of economic life. If a company ceases to progress in 101 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 a changing world, it starts to fall back. We must be willing to make changes (not for the sake of change but when necessary and indicated), and to contribute new ideas and sell these ideas to our colleagues and superiors. The third ingredient necessary for success is the ability to delegate properly. We have to learn that delegation of authority is an extension of our own achievement. At the same time, it improves the morale of the staff by giving them the feeling of sharing responsibility. This is what makes work interesting. Finally, a few words about the ability to make sound decisions. As technological change and business grow more intricate and as constant requirements are being imposed on executives by changing conditions, a proper process of decision-making enables management to set its objec- tives in time and to determine its plans and strategies. A good leader can face a crisis without panic, because he knows how to meet a problem; he knows that he has first to meet the problem, define it, put it in an organized shape, seek information that is necessary for its solution, analyze all the elements of the problem, and test in his mind all possible alternative solutions before reaching a final decision. In conclusion, the future executive, in order to face and manage change, will have to be competent in a way that present managers are not. He will be aware of the most advanced technological and managerial tools that can help him in the complicated process of managing change. But above all, he will be able to apply his own knowledge to the analytical process required, and he will be able to motivate his staff in a positive sense through better understanding of the complexities of human personality. Will the business leaders of tomorrow be able to meet the challenge of the changing times? It seems that the answer to this question rests with future managers, business leaders, and management educators. I think that the challenge to business leaders will be accepted, and that it will result in a major triumph for the manager of tomorrow. He will build on what exists; he will motivate people to improve; he will unite employees in constructive cooperation. He will do this because he is aware that the biggest challenge confronting the world today is to use the advances in research and technology to solve man's economic and social problems. We must solve these problems in order to narrow the gap between rich and poor nations. It is in this endeavor that managers of tomorrow will have a tremendous role to play. While the industrial revolution of the nineteenth century can be said to have developed through a struggle for survival of the fittest, the techno- logical age, in order to prosper, requires the effective mobilization of the most able and the most knowledgeable to manage the change. 102 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: IA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Assessing Preferred Job Attributes for the New Manager of the 1980s by David Hopkins and Sandra LaMarre with Jerry Thurber I. Purpose and Importance of the Study It is doubtful that any other "theory" has received as much attention in the literature regarding employee motivation as the "Hierarchy of Needs" proposed by Abraham Maslow (9). It is in many ways simplistic: it is ethnocentric in that it fails to account for cultural determinants that might alter the basic hierarchy; it is static in that it fails to account for changes in the hierarchy due to short-run situational changes; it is rigid in that it does not adequately account for the often observed non-sequential adher- ence to the categories of needs in the hierarchy; and it is perhaps incom- plete in that it does not exhaust the kinds of needs that motivate human beings. Despite its shortcomings, it is nevertheless useful in describing the various needs that motivate human behavior. The purpose of this paper is to utilize the basic taxonomy presented by Maslow to describe the perceived job-related needs of the recent group of college graduates. Why is it important to continually describe the "needs" of various occupational groups? As one author states, "If you want worker produc- tivity, you must satisfy worker needs" (5:56). Concern for the continual decline in productivity in the United States relative to the Japanese and others is at the forefront of domestic concerns. Secondly, understanding job-related needs is important due to the rel- atively high rates of absenteeism and turnover. Losing people who have been highly trained is very costly. Turnover at the managerial level mul- tiplies this cost significantly and yet it has been increasingly characteristic for new college graduates to have several different employers in the first few years of their careers. Management turnover in 1960 among graduates out of college less than five years was 10%. Today the average corporation loses 50% of its college recruits within five years, according to the Sterling Institute, a Washington, D.C., management consulting firm (12). What appears to be happening in the American work force is a growing mismatch between company incentives and employee motivation. Today's employ- ees simply are not responding to traditional rewards as they once did. Our own study indicates that over 70% of the new college graduates expect to work for at least two different employers in the first five years after graduation; nearly one in five expects to have three or more employers David Hopkins is associate professor of management and public administration, School of Business and Public Management, University of Denver, Denver, Colorado. Sandra LaMarre is assistant professor of management, School of Business and Public Management, University of Denver, Denver, Colorado. Jerry Thurber is a graduate assistant at the School of Business and Public Management, University of Denver, Denver, Colorado. 103 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 in five years. As the chief psychologist for the Personnel Sciences Center in New York City commented in an interview for U.S. News and World Report, "younger workers feel they can pretty much call their own tune on a job; if they don't like what they see, they'll pick up their marbles and walk away" (15:63-4). For both productivity and turnover reasons, it is important to understand what people want from their jobs. As Karlins notes, "many contemporary managers can't satisfy worker needs because they don't know what they are" (5:56). Finally, the purpose of this study is to provide descriptive base-line data from which to measure future changes in job-related needs. Our intent is to follow a significant sub-sample of our respondents during the first 10 years following graduation in order to document how and why their perceived job needs change. Armed with this knowledge, we believe management will be much better equipped to experiment with and design new types of incentive schemes. In the late 1960s almost half of all employed Americans viewed their work as a major source of personal fulfillment. Today that number has dropped to less than one out of four according to a recent survey by Yankelovich, Skelly and White (16). II. Review of the Literature There is a growing interest, among businesses and those involved in preparing individuals for the job market, in evaluating the value systems of current employees with hopes of developing more effective motivation techniques and job definitions. In reviewing the literature in this area, there is a consistent reference to a change in value systems. However, consensus does not exist in delineating the nature of the change. Yan- kelovich (16) suggests that: I) fear is no longer a primary motivating factor?job security is very important but is considered a right rather than a goal; 2) money as an incentive remains crucial but is more difficult to use and is not in itself sufficient; and 3) the "work ethic" is no longer a predominant value brought to the job. The U.S. Department of Labor (16) says in contradiction that "there appears to be an emerging work ethic which places a greater demand upon work. Work is viewed as an integral part of one's life." Further, they find American college seniors of 1972 in all academic areas to expect a resurgence of the importance of family life, and to be less concerned with money than their fathers and much more concerned about the nature and purpose of work. They appear to have a strong desire for career security and stability, put less emphasis on social status and teamwork, less em- phasis also on the need to be original and creative, more emphasis on utilization of special skills and abilities. Several empirically based studies have been conducted in this area. Again consensus appears to be lacking. Fretz (4) surveyed male college sophomores and juniors in five pre-professional curricula: law, medicine, engineering, education, and business. They were asked to rank order pay received, security, prestige, advancement, variety of duties, working con- ditions, independence, opportunity to use special talents, challenge, self- 104 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 satisfaction, and fringe benefits. Although there was a small amount of inter-group differences, mean values indicated the top five areas of concern to be: 1) self-satisfaction, 2) pay received, 3) challenge, 4) security, and 5) independence. Business students ranked the occupational values in the following order: pay received, advancement, self-satisfaction, challenge, and security. Mitchell et al. (10) attempted to predict occupational choice and to discover why certain students select business as an occupation. The method of this study was again a questionnaire administered to 141 randomly selected psychology and business majors in their junior year at the Uni- versity of Washington. Significant differences between the two groups were noted. Business majors more highly valued autonomy and eliminating poverty. Baker (1) studied differences in value systems between college students majoring in accounting and those majoring in other academic areas. The 565 students were selected at random from students majoring in sciences, the humanities, social sciences, and undergraduate and graduate account- ing programs. They were asked to rank order terminal and instrumental values as delineated on the Rokeach Values Survey. The results indicated that accounting students gave statistically greater median rank to: 1) a comfortable life, 2) family security, 3) ambition, 4) cleanliness, and 5) responsibility, than all other students. Zikmund, et al. (17) addressed themselves to the question, " What are accounting students looking for when they consider their future careers?" Fifty accounting majors at Oklahoma State currently interviewing for positions in anticipation of near-future graduation were surveyed. They were asked to choose from a series of job-offer pairs. The researchers paired salary-interesting work, salary-social responsibility, interesting work- social responsibility, and interesting work-opportunity for advancement. Results indicated that opportunity for advancement has the strongest im- pact on job choice. Interesting work was also highly significant, but was subject to salary negotiation (e.g., a high enough salary differential would cause the subject to select for money rather than job interest), and social responsibility had a positive impact also on selection but was more easily overcome by high salaries. Cherrington, et al. (3) surveyed 3,053 workers in 53 companies to determine worker attitudes toward jobs, company, community, and work in general. It was found that the most desirable work-related outcome was a feeling of pride and craftsmanship in your work. The second most desirable work outcome was "getting more money or a larger pay in- crease." The survey results indicated that getting more money was more important to younger workers, male and female, than to older workers. "Unless they can obtain other valued rewards for their efforts, younger workers are likely to be less motivated than older workers" (3). Additional research has been done investigating the values of full-time MBA students and new employees. Ondrack (11) found that MBA students at the University of Toronto valued: 1) challenge in work, 2) good salary, 3) quality of peers, 4) opportunity for achievement, and 5) individual responsibility. Manhardt (7) considered value systems of recent college 105 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 graduates employed in similar positions and found significant differences in orientations men and women bring to their jobs. Men tended to rate achievement/responsibility factors, which seemingly relate to long-range career success, significantly higher than women, while women gave higher ratings to factors that deal with the nature of the work environment (con- genial atmosphere, etc.). To summarize, while there is agreement that the new worker or near- future worker brings different values and expectations to the job than did his predecessor, and while there is a clearly demonstrated difference in value systems between individuals seeking careers in business and those seeking other types of careers, there is no clear determination as to what the most important values are. Money, job security, and job content seem to be consistently high-ranked, but much disagreement exists as to which is most important. It is clearly evident that security and high salary are no longer the primary set of values brought to the work situation. An increased emphasis is being put on job content, challenge, responsibility, participative decision-making, and availability of leisure time and/or the importance of family life. Research that has been done in this area is somewhat limited and sample sizes have been small and parochial. Only Fretz (4) and the U.S. De- partment of Labor (13) have concentrated on delineating value systems of undergraduate students approaching graduation. III. Methodology Units of Analysis The results reported here are part of a larger study that surveyed 1,930 graduating college seniors from 50 four-year institutions across the U.S. The institutions were selected by stratified random methods so as to be representative of the national population of such institutions on five dif- ferent dimensions: size, competitiveness, affiliation (i.e. public, private, or church), environment (i.e. rural, urban, or suburban), and region of the country. The 50 schools selected were within 1% of the actual pro- portion of schools in each sub-category in the country. Once the schools were selected, a 20% sample of graduating seniors was systemically se- lected from lists of graduating seniors provided by the schools themselves. Of approximately 6,800 questionnaires distributed, 1,930 were returned for a return rate of approximately 28%. Instrumentation The results presented here were derived from the following question in our survey, which asked respondents to rank 20 different job attributes in terms of their preferences: Please rank the following attributes in order of importance to you. (1 = highest priority, etc.) Each attribute completes the phrase, "I would prefer a job that has Due to concern that respondents would be unable to accurately rank a list of 20 items, we pre-tested the approach by having a group of approximately 106 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 60 students also answer this question on a "paired comparison" basis. That is, they were asked to choose only between two attributes at a time. This was done for all possible attribute pairs and the overall results of this approach were compared to the simple ranking of all 20 items by the same students. The two approaches yielded results that correlated at ap- proximately .85. The similarity between the results of our national study and our pilot study also suggests that responses to this question yield reliable results. The job attributes selected were culled from the literature to represent the five dimensions of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. A brief description of those dimensions and the related indicators is presented below: Physiological Needs: The lowest rung on Maslow's hierarchy encom- passses those needs involved with basic physiological requirements, i.e., air, food, water, shelter, clothing, sex, comfort, and convenience. While to some extent wages and salaries can be used to satisfy needs in all levels of the Maslow hierarchy, basic income is particularly relevant to the satisfaction of these basic needs. As Boone and Kurtz note, "Because minimum wage laws and union wage contracts have forced wage levels upward so that most families can afford to satisfy their basic needs, the higher-order needs are likely to play a greater role in worker motivation today" (2:163). We utilized the following four attributes to measure the dimension of "physiological needs": ? A Convenient Work Location ? An Adequate Wage and Salary ? Comfortable Working Conditions ? Free Organization-Provided Meals Safety/Security Needs: The next category in the hierarchy is composed of safety/security needs. This involves the need to feel safe, secure, and protected. It includes "job security, protection from physical harm and avoidance of the unexpected" (2:163). In terms of the job, it might include protection against health and medical care expenses, safe working con- ditions, and security against inflation (e.g., cost-of-living increases). From these possibilities, we selected the following four attributes as being rep- resentative of this dimension: ? Good Insurance Benefits ? Substantial Job Security ? A Non-Competitive Atmosphere ? Clearly Defined Assignments Social Needs: The next higher dimension is what Maslow describes as "social" needs. These take various forms. They describe a person's need to "belong" and be accepted by others. People desire social contacts and have a basic need to be affiliated with others. The work place provides several opportunities for people to satisfy these needs through work groups, clubs, committees, and meetings as well as formal and informal associ- ations with peers, subordinates, and superiors. We selected the following four attributes to tap these needs: 107 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: kCIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 ? Co-Workers with Similar Beliefs ? Substantial Interaction Among Employees ? Friendly Co-Workers ? Organization-Sponsored Social Activities Esteem Needs: Above social needs come "esteem" needs. These de- scribe a person's desire to feel a sense of accomplishment and achieve- ment. This has two parts: people need external validation of their worth and importance, but they also need an internal self-respect and sense of importance. There are several ways in which a person's job provides the opportunity to satisfy these "ego" needs: formal and informal feedback on performance, social recognition, and organizational titles and positions that indicate status and the ability to influence others. We have included the desire for a "high wage and salary" in this category. Like basic wages, high wages can be used to satisfy other needs as well (e.g., security). Nevertheless, we have equated basic wages/salaries with the satisfaction of basic needs, and the desire for high wages/salaries as a manifest indicator of one's worth in the eyes of others. Therefore, the four attributes used to measure esteem needs are: ? A High Wage and Salary ? Importance in the Eyes of Others ? Recognition for Good Performance ? Influence over Others Self-Actualization Needs: Finally, at the top of Maslow's proposed hierarchy are what he has labeled "self-actualization" needs. Maslow himself had earlier described these needs, saying, "A healthy man is primarily motivated by his needs to develop and actualize his fullest potentialities and capacities . . . what man can be, he must be" (8:384, 392). On the job, these needs are expressed in the desire for self-devel- opment, autonomy, personal growth, responsibility and independence, self-fulfillment, and the ability to utilize one's creativity, special talents, and capabilities. We selected the following attributes as representative of this dimension: ? Freedom for Self-Expression and Creativity ? Opportunity to Use Your Skills and Abilities ? Interest and Self-Satisfaction ? Opportunity for Personal Development The previously described job attributes were randomly selected as to their position on the questionnaire. The question and format were pre- tested in a pilot study of approximately 200 undergraduate seniors at eight four-year institutions in the Denver Metropolitan area. IV. Results Overall Results In both our pilot study and our national study, some respondents in- dicated that it was fairly easy to pick their top five and their bottom five 108 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 preferences. Distinguishing preferences for those job attributes in the mid- dle was apparently more difficult. The top five preferred job attributes were: 1. Interest and Self-Satisfaction. 2. Opportunity to Use Skills and Abilities 3. Opportunity for Personal Development 4. Recognition for Good Performance 5. An Adequate Wage and/or Salary In contrast, the least preferred job attributes were: 20. Free Organization-Provided Meals ,19. Organization-Sponsored Social Activities 18. Influence over Others 17. Importance in the Eyes of Others 16. Co-Workers with Similar Beliefs The fact that "an adequate wage and/or salary" is ranked as low as fifth is somewhat surprising and contradicts many current perceptions that money is the primary objective in job selection. The fact that "organi- zation-provided meals" and "organization-sponsored social activities" are ranked last and next-to-last is not surprising. Nevertheless, one is struck by how different the ranking for such items might be in different cultures or for respondents entering the job market from different economic situations (e.g., non-college graduates). Finally, the overall scores on the five Maslow need dimensions are shown in Exhibit 1. (These scores can range from 10, which represents a high preference for a need dimension, to 74, which represents a low preference). Given our categorization, the "self-actualization" dimension demonstrates an extremely high preference. Also surprising is the fact that the "social" and "esteem" dimensions are both lower than "physiolog- ical" or "security" in terms of respondents' preferences. However, the inclusion of "an adequate wage and/or salary" only in the "physiological" category undoubtedly gives greater weight to that dimension than it would have otherwise. Nevertheless, the overwhelming preference for jobs that provide opportunities to satisfy one's self-actualization needs is indeed striking. Sub-Group Results The preference orderings for various job attributes have also been cal- culated for various sub-groups of the overall population of respondents. Four broad sets of characteristics have been used to identify the sub- groups: personal characteristics, academic characteristics, family char- acteristics, and institutional characteristics. Results for Sub-Groups Defined by Personal Characteristics The "self-actualization" dimension is the overwhelming preference among all these sub-groups; jobs that provide "interest and self-satisfac- tion" and "opportunity to use one's skills and abilities" are the first and second choices in all cases. The responses of men and women are very similar. Compared to men, there is a slight tendency for women to prefer job attributes that provide 109 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Exhibit I Overall Need-Dimension Graphs Physiological: Low High 74 61 48 36 23 10 Low High Security: 74 61 48 36 23 10 Low High Social: 74 61 48 36 23 10 Low High Esteem: 74 61 48 36 23 10 Low High Self-Actualization: 74 61 48 36 23 10 greater security (e.g., "a non-competitive atmosphere") while men have a slightly higher preference for job attributes satisfying esteem needs than do women. Among age groups, the older respondents definitely appear to have stronger self-actualization needs, whereas younger respondents have a greater preference for satisfying social needs. Respondents over 35 years of age ranked "freedom of self expression and creativity" third whereas respondents under 22 ranked that item eighth. Similarly, younger respon- dents demonstrated slightly higher esteem needs while older respondents have slightly higher physiological and security needs. Among broad racial categories, Negroes strongly prefer jobs that satisfy security needs, Orientals exhibit much higher esteem needs, and Cauca- sians appear to have a slight preference for satisfying social needs relative to the other two groups. Orientals ranked "an adequate wage or salary" significantly lower than Caucasians or Negroes, but ranked "a high wage or salary" substantially higher than the other two groups. On the dimension of social needs, Caucasians had a higher preference for "friendly co- workers" while Orientals had a higher preference for "substantial inter- action among employees." Negroes had significantly higher preferences for "clearly defined assignments" and "substantial job security" than other respondents. All racial sub-groups had equally strong preferences for satisfying self-actualization needs. Foreign students expressed a stronger preference for jobs that satisfy physiological needs while American students had a stronger preference regarding security needs. Indicative of this was the foreign students' higher ranking for a "non-competitive atmosphere." The amount of full-time work experience does not appear to translate to sufficiently different preferences among job attributes, though respon- dents with no full-time work experience showed a stronger preference for satisfying social needs. However, in terms of part-time work experience, there were significant differences among sub-groups and the reasons for 110 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 this distinction are unclear. For example, those respondents with no part- time work experience have a preference for satisfying those needs further down on Maslow's hierarchy (i.e., physiological and particularly secu- rity). Those with more than three years of full-time work experience had a substantially stronger preference for satisfying esteem and self-actuali- zation needs. Indicative of this pattern was the higher ranking for "an adequate wage or salary," "substantial job security," and "clearly de- fined assignments" among those with no part-time work experience. In contrast, those with more than three years of part-time experience had a stronger preference for "freedom of self-expression and creativity" as well as for a "high wage or salary." The amount of part-time work experience appeared to distinguish significant differences among sub-groups more than any other characteristic. Nevertheless, the Spearman's Rho (rank order correlation) between the ranks of those with no part-time experience and those with over three years of experience is still a very high .987. Spearman's Rho for the ranks of males and females is .999. Results for Sub-Groups Defined by Academic Characteristics There are some significant differences between academic majors. Busi- ness and public administration majors had lower preferences for job at- tributes that tend to satisfy physiological, social, and self-actualization needs than do other majors. However, they have higher esteem needs than do other majors. Relatively higher physiological needs were expressed by fine arts, humanities, and applied majors. A somewhat greater preference for satisfying social needs was demonstrated by social and behavioral science majors and pre-professional majors. Humanities and pre-profes- sional majors had lower esteem needs. The highest possible preference for satisfying self-actualization needs was reflected by majors in the social and behavioral sciences, fine arts, and the humanities. Students with grade point averages below 2.5 demonstrated greater preference for satisfying security needs and slightly higher preference for satisfying esteem needs than did students with GPA's of 2.5 and above. Students with better grades had slightly higher preferences in terms of physiological, social, and self-actualization needs. Nevertheless, the rank order correlation between the two groups is an extremely high .996. We also looked at differences between student groups defined by who was paying for the majority of their academic expenses. The differences were negligible. However, students who had the majority of their expenses paid by sources other than themselves or their families (e.g., employers, government, etc.) did have slightly greater preference for satisfying "lower level" needs (physiological and security) and somewhat lower preference for satisfying self-actualization needs. Finally, we looked at differences between students who intended to take jobs in the public, private, and non-profit sectors. Those aiming for the private-for-profit sector revealed weaker physiological and security needs, but substantially stronger esteem needs. Those students preparing to work in the non-profit sector had the highest self-actualization needs and the lowest esteem needs. Students who professed a desire to enter the public sector had the highest security needs. Indicative of these patterns 111 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 was a significantly higher ranking assigned to "recognition for good per- formance" and a "high wage and salary" by those intending to enter the private-for-profit sector as compared to those aiming for the non-profit sector. Results for Sub-Groups Defined by Family Characteristics The results for various sub-groups defined by family and early childhood characteristics reveal that those from high-income families (i.e., gross income over $75,000/year) had higher preferences for satisfying Maslow's higher-level needs (i.e., social, esteem, and self-actualization) than did those students from lower-income families (below $25,000/year). Like- wise, respondents from low-income families had a greater concern for physiological and security needs. In terms of religious upbringing, there were few significant differences between broad religious groupings. Jews reflected stronger esteem needs than others. Similarly, Catholics had higher security needs than other groups. Finally, Protestants indicated a higher preference on the dimension of physiological needs, which was the result of a significantly higher rank given to "an adequate wage or salary" by Protestants than by Jews. Protestants ranked that attribute fifth whereas Jews ranked it twelfth. We looked at differences between families with various work patterns. Those students who had two working parents when they were growing up had nearly identical preferences compared with respondents who had only one working parent. When both parents worked some, the results were also similar. There was a noticeable difference between students who were raised in rural settings as opposed to other settings. Those from rural environments have significantly higher needs at the bottom of Maslow's hierarchy (i.e., physiological, security, and social) and lower esteem and self-actualization needs than those students raised in small towns, suburban, or urban en- vironments. Differences between non-rural environments were negligible. Finally, we examined differences between married and unmarried stu- dents. Again, the differences were insignificant. Married students had slightly stronger preferences for satisfying security and self-actualization needs and somewhat lower preferences for jobs that satisfy social needs. Nevertheless, in comparing sub-groups defined by all of these family characteristics, the overwhelming pattern is similarity, not diversity. Results for Sub-Groups Defined by Institutional Characteristics The results for students coming from various types of schools indicate that there do appear to be some regional differences. Students attending southern schools indicate higher security needs and lower self-actualization needs than those from other regions. For example, they ranked "substantial job security" fourth and "freedom for self-expression and creativity" eighth. Respondents from midwestern schools had the lowest security needs. Those from western institutions had the lowest esteem needs. Respondents from less competitive schools had substantially higher security needs and somewhat lower self-actualization needs than those from more competitive schools. Indicative of this is the higher ranking they give to "substantial job security" and "good insurance benefits." 112 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The affiliation of the school (i.e., private, public, or church) did not define dramatic differences between students. Students at private insti- tutions had slightly higher self-actualization and social needs and slightly lower physiological and security needs than did others. Those from church supported schools had somewhat higher preferences for job attributes that satisfy Maslow's lower level needs and less preference for those satisfying higher level needs. Students from small schools also expressed a stronger desire to satisfy lower-level needs (i.e., physiological and security) and lower preference for satisfying esteem and self-actualization needs. Students from rural schools demonstrated this same pattern of needs. However, institutional characteristics do not appear to create significant differences among job- attribute preferences. Similarity across sub-groups is again the rule rather than the exception. V. Conclusions First, the respondents in this study expressed an overwhelming pref- erence for job attributes that satisfy what Maslow labeled self-actualization needs. The three top-ranked job attributes were in this category?"interest and self-satisfaction," "opportunity to use one's skills and abilities," and "opportunity for personal development." Second, the preferences are extremely consistent across sub-groups. The rank order correlation for the preferences of the most diverse groups is above .95. Third, there are some mild differences in preferences, which have been noted above. For example, a higher preference for satisfying self-actual- ization needs is indicated by older respondents (over 35), those with more work experience, those majoring in social or behavioral science, fine arts, or humanities, those having the majority of their academic expenses paid by their families or themselves, those aiming at jobs in the nonprofit sector, those raised in other than rural environments, and those who at- tended school in the East, Midwest, or West. Those respondents who appear to have a higher preference for job attributes that satisfy esteem needs are Orientals, those with some part- time work experience, those majoring in business and/or public admin- istration, those intending to enter the private sector, Jews, those raised in other than rural environments, and those who attended medium or large, urban or suburban schools. A stronger desire to satisfy social needs through the job is reflected by Caucasians, those under 22, those with no full-time work experience, those from families with incomes under $25,000, those with no particular religious upbringing, and those raised in rural and small town environ- ments. Those indicating higher preferences for satisfying security needs were Negroes, American students, those with no part-time work experience, those with grade point averages below 2.5, those expecting to take jobs in the public sector, those from poorer families, Catholics, those raised in rural environments, and those attending small, church-supported schools in the South that are below average in competitiveness. 113 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Finally, those respondents who put a relatively greater stress on job attributes that satisfy physiological needs were Caucasians, Negroes, for- eign students, those majoring in fine arts, humanities, or applied subjects, those having more than half their academic expenses paid by sources other than themselves or their families, those intending to take jobs in the public or nonprofit sectors, those from poorer families, Protestants or those with no religious upbringing, those raised in rural environments, and those attending small schools. Fourth, if groups of needs are satisfied in some sort of priority sequence as suggested by Maslow, then one would expect the scores on the various dimensions to reflect that ordering. They do not. On the other hand, Maslow suggests that needs which have been satisfied tend to lose their motivating power and are less sought after. If this is the case, it would appear that all but self-actualization needs have been relatively well sat- isfied for students just graduating from college. To take this a step further, social needs would appear to have been the most satisfied and physiological and security needs the least satisfied (aside from self-actualization). This makes some intuitive sense when one realizes that these respondents have just finished four (or more) years of college, probably with relatively low levels of discretionary income, and are just entering a stage in their lives when many will be attempting to get their first job. However, this scenario does not adequately explain why a person would be so dramatically con- cerned with self-actualization. As one looks at the various orderings of the five Maslow need-dimensions across various sub-groups, it is clear that there is not one dominant ordering. Nevertheless, this information does not necessarily fault Maslow's theory. One would have to know more about the individual situations of the respondents and which of their needs have already been satisfied. Fifth, the job attributes that we have selected to represent each of Maslow's dimensions do not always hang together. For example, on the esteem dimension, the "recognition for good performance" is consistently ranked higher than other attributes on that dimension. Similarly, "friendly co-workers" is consistently ranked higher than other attributes on the social dimension. Not surprising is the fact that "an adequate wage or salary" ranks high among those attributes measuring physiological needs. Bibliography I. Baker, C. Richard, "An investigation of Differences in Values: Accounting Major vs. Nonaccounting Major," The Accounting Review, Vol. 1, # 4, October 1976. pp. 886-893. 2. Boone, Louis E., and Kurtz, David L., Contemporary Business, Third Edition, New York: The Dryden Press, 1982. 3. Cherrington, David J., The Work Ethic, AMACOM, New York, 1980. 4. Fretz, Bruce R., "Occupational Values as Discriminants of Professional Student Groups," Journal of Vocational Behavior, Vol. 2, # 3. July 1972, pp. 233-237. 5. Karlins, Marvin, The Human Use of Human Resources, New York: McGraw Hill, 1981. ? 6. Lawler 111, Edward E., "Compensating the New-Life-Style-Worker," Person- nel May-June 1971, pp. 19-25. 114 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 1 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 7. Manhardt, Philip J., "Job Orientation of Male and Female College Graduates in Business," Personnel Psychology, Vol. 25, 1972, pp. 361-368. 8. Maslow, Abraham, "A Theory of Human Motivation," Psychological Review, July 1943. 9. Maslow, Abraham, Motivation and Personality, New York: Harper, 1954. 10. Mitchell, Terence R., and Knidsen, Barrett W., "Instrumentality Theory Pre- dictions of Students' Attitudes Towards Business and Their Choice of Business as an Occupation," Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 16, # 1, March 1973, pp. 41- 52. 11. Ondrack, D.A., "Emerging Occupational Values: A Review and Some Find- ings," Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 16, # 3. September 1973, pp. 423- 432. 12. Rowan, Roy, "Rekindling Corporate Loyalty," Fortune, February 1981, pp. 54- 58. 13. U.S. Department of Labor, Job Satisfaction: Is There a Trend?, Manpower Research Monograph No. 30, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1974. 14. U.S. Department of Labor, Youth and the Meaning of Work, Manpower Re- search Monograph No. 32, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1974. 15. Witkin, Arthur, "How Bosses Get People To Work Harder," U.S. News and World Report, January 29, 1979, Interview. 16. Yankelovich, Daniel, "New Approaches to Worker Productivity," a talk given at the National Conference on Human Resource Systems in Dallas, Texas, October 25, 1978. 17. Zikmund, William, Catalanello, Ralph, and Wegener, Steve, "The Accounting Student's Job-Rating Criteria: An Experiment," The Accounting Review, Vol. 52, # 3, July 1977, pp. 729-735. 115 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Making Technology Work: A Report from the Battlefield by James L. Horton Friction is the only concept that more or less corresponds to the factors that distinguish real war from war on paper. The military machine . . is basically very simple and therefore seems easy to manage. But we should bear in mind that none of its components is of one piece: each part is composed of individuals, every one of whom retains his potential of friction . . . . A battalion is made up of individuals, the least important of whom may chance to delay things or somehow make them go wrong. The dangers inseparable from war and the physical exertions war demands can aggravate the problem to such an extent that they must be ranked among its principal causes. This tremendous friction, which cannot, as in mechanics, be reduced to a few points, is everywhere in contact with chance, and brings about effects that cannot be measured, just because they are largely due to chance. ?Carl Von Clausewitz, "On War," 1832 (taken from Princeton edition, 1976; edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret). (For "war," read "business"; for "military machine," read "company"; for ,"battalion," read "company unit.") Factory hands, dockworkers, mechanics, technicians, clerks, secretar- ies, salespersons, and middle managers are the ones who will make the future work because they do the business of any company. But who is overcoming their fears that tomorrow's technology will cost them their jobs, humiliate them in front of lower-status employees, and force them to confront concepts they could not have learned in school? Work improvement and productivity are wonderful theories, but too often they bring lower-than-expected yields because the human factor is over- looked. Item: The leader of one of America's largest corporations has threatened to replace workers with robots if wage demands are not moderated. Item: By making managers type on computer keyboards, we ask them to abolish a fundamental distinction between themselves and secretaries. Item: An employee wrestles with "user-friendly" software for 10 or more hours before giving up in frustration at making it work. James L. Horton is associated with Robert Marston and Associates, Inc., New York, New York. 116 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Item: Workers avoid a new high-production office machine because they have to get work out and they are not "comfortable enough" to use it. They already had several hours of training on the machine. The author can document each of these examples and more. The problem of change in organizations is well-known, but the intro- duction of computer, communications, and automated technology to every facet of the workplace is so vast that it is reminiscent of the industrial revolution and the rise of assembly lines. As anyone who has read Dickens and studied U.S. unionism can tell you, those shifts were botched. Workers rose in anger against appalling conditions and intolerable line speeds ordered by engineers palming stopwatches. It is too early to predict disaster for the new technologies, but the warning signs are there and suspicion verges on paranoia in some parts of the workplace. Unfortunately, there appears to be little organized effort to confront human problems and the unquantifiable risks they present. The drive is once again for the bottom line of the income statement. Cost-effective management should not impede respect for employees, but too often it does. Companies such as Emerson Electric, which- attempts to meld ag- gressive, numbers-oriented performance with strong communications and worker concern, are rare. As one who has been on the battle lines to get new technology into offices, it seems to me that some commonsense observations about people and management are pertinent to "Working Now and in the Future." Technological Leaps Are Made Through Microsteps. The best in- troductions of new technology are tedious. They demand careful personnel planning, advance employee communications at all levels, "hard-sell" introduction, training, and new socio-cultural and organizational relation- ships. Frequently, planning stops at calculations of return on assets, tax ben- efits, and production gains. And, unfortunately, this may be as much a result of education as anything else. For example, in the MBA program this author attended, nearly all planning was financial and revolved around discounted cash flows. Human aspects received glancing nods at best. The importance of humanistic managerial communications has been much neglected or overburdened by studies on spans of control, optimum network configurations, and "pop" psychology. An old saying applied by many a general and -Bull of the Woods" is perhaps still the most pertinent when major changes occur: "The best management tool is a good pair of shoes." One must go to the work site, look at the progress (or the lack of it), talk to employees at every level, demonstrate enthusiasm, show hands- on leadership, and exhibit real knowledge of the equipment to overcome problems and keep a project moving. Credibility Is Hard Won and Easily Lost. Woe to managers who say new technology does not threaten jobs but then lay off workers. A breach of faith is not easily forgotten. It is better to be honest. But this error is made all the time. Years ago, Chester Barnard noted that workers give labor voluntarily 117 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ICIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 and can withhold it, too, when they no longer accept the authority of an executive. A manager is only credible if, when he or she leads, workers follow. Achieving this requires hard, long work to project one's ideas and goals to the bottom of the organization, to get employees to understand them, and, most difficult of all, to accept them and act. When entire organizations are hostile to technology, it takes a dramatic, uncontested threat to gain credibility, such as the invasion of Japanese cars. If that does not work, the manager may replace the organization by moving the plant or forcing installation of machines. Neither are palatable. Dumping workers on society solves immediate problems, but it ignores taxes, government regulations, and other consequences arising from mounting unemployed who cannot be left to starve. Stick to Fundamentals When Great Changes Occur. Side issues dilute efforts when new technology is introduced. Most of today's elec- tronic equipment, for example, can do more than any previous machine. It is a trap to concentrate on gaining wonderful advantages before making sure that employees understand how a machine makes basic tasks easier, faster, and better. No manager should presume that a manual, a seminar, and hands-on experience are enough to get employees used to new machines. It doesn't happen. Workers are overwhelmed by new concepts. Learning is slow, and volumes of information obfuscate. Two rules are of use: ? KISS: Keep It Simple, Stupid. (An old Army saying.) ? Tell 'em what you're going to tell 'em. Tell 'em. Tell 'em what you told 'em. Identify the one key work-flow task and train employees to perform it well. Then, and only then, branch into new territory. This has three advantages: ? Work-flow remains steady: there is less disruption. ? Performing key tasks gives workers time to become comfortable with equipment. ? Key tasks on new machines may be similar to tasks performed on older equipment. Employees may be able to adapt better and faster. For example, word processing depends on basic typing skills that nearly every secretary knows. Conceptual Understanding Does Not Equal Applications Under- standing. Before introducing new technology, the careful manager tests training, instructions, and other procedures on the least skillful employees. If they cannot grasp it, the manager reworks the program until they do. When roll-out occurs, chances of success are greater?but never insured. An engineer may know the principles of an auto but not be able to build one. A secretary might learn the concept of word processing but get hopelessly tangled in the buttons. When Apple built its new "user-friendly" computer, Lisa, software was tested on unskilled employees during development and revised until nearly anyone could work the machine with 30 minutes of instruction. Although it is too early to determine whether Lisa will be commercially successful, it has been roundly cheered by nearly everyone who has worked with it. 118 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Such testing means organizational changes occur slowly. During the fallow period between the start and finish of a roll-out, managers may suffer substantial abuse for "doing nothing" and may have to perform more than a few "symbolic" actions to keep top management and em- ployees motivated. Accept the Inevitable. For all the planning that occurs, some things just don't work. For all the training that is given, some employees cannot or will not adapt to new technology. Sloan, in writing of his years at General Motors, recalled vividly the lessons of the experimental copper- vred engine on which the company nearly bet its existence. Good managers prepare fallback positions during change to make sure that work gets out. And, if possible, they test new technology in a place where the guts of a business are not threatened. When it comes to recal- citrant employees, managers live with them, move them, or fire them. Humanistic leaders find this most unpleasant, but wise ones lay ground- work carefully?if they have time, and they usually do?so that both the employee and co-workers may see that a reasonable chance to adapt has been given and not reached. Status Can Be a Trap. The prestige of having one's own microcom- puter, robot, or terminal has reached the same proportions in some cor- porations as gold-plated golf clubs. Status, however, does not guarantee use. Stories circulate of executives who have terminals but don't turn them on, or, worse, do not hook them up. New technology, in these cases, does not help the business and harms the individual. The executive does not take the machine seriously. When this happens, problems become self-fulfilling prophecies about why old ways are better. However, if a manager tests a machine in one department, favorable usage reports and word of mouth on the grapevine will confer prestige quickly. Status then becomes a powerful management tool in rolling out the technology throughout the organization. The Most Advanced System May Not Be Best. As high-speed en- gineering produces new machines, software, add-ons, advantages, and other enticements, the temptation is to get the most advanced system to guarantee greater productivity. However, the manager must ask whether old dogs can learn new tricks and if so, how fast. It does little good to push people into the 1990s if they are still in the 1970s. Change should be gradual with easier-to- understand equipment. While it is best to upgrade by acknowledging the attitude of the organization, this does not mean that a company that is behind will remain behind. The smart manager pours resources of time and attention into highlighting the company's position and its goals. Use a Time Rule and Make It Well Known. After working with a new technology, a rough pattern of acceptance emerges. In word pro- cessing, the author has seen a pattern of three and six months. During the first three months, there are problems with learning the equipment. By six months, there are manager clashes for available time on a machine. Clashes are a sign of acceptance. It has been the author's policy when participating in new-technology introductions to make time rules well 119 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: IA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 known to employees and top managers. It smooths crises that inevitably occur, and lets all know that their problem is part of a normal cycle rather than an imminent failure. Failures Are Usually 90% Managerial and 10% Employee. It is easy to blame subordinates, the union, or anyone but oneself for poor progress in introducing new technology. If one accepts that most problems result from failing to present issues clearly to begin with, then searches can be simplified when things go wrong. Smart managers do not attempt to start a change before talking with several subordinates to learn how it is un- derstood. This, too, is an old managerial rule: "If you want to see how you are communicating to subordinates, pull some of them aside two or three days after you announce a new policy and ask them to explain it to you." Most managers are appalled to learn how their clear thought, strong leadership, and driving salesmanship have been distorted beyond recog- nition. Blaming management, however, goes only so far. Credibility problems resulting in generations of unionism have institutionalized distrust and distort the, best-intended messages. It takes cataclysm to break through the barrier?or years of hard labor and consistent strategy. It is not unlike the U.S. and the Soviet Union. While there may be cooperation, under- lying assumptions and motives are at odds. If one looks at the source of this distrust, he should find a failure to maintain employee and management focus on the true functions of the business. When (on the surface) workers see management aggrandizing, they will demand what they can get eventually. When technology threatens personal well-being, it becomes an intimate danger and not a business good. It is management's long-term task to maintain a clear picture of the business and the employee's part in it. This is rarely done. Do It. Fix It. Try It. Some organizations plan in the nth detail, but never produce. Strategic exercises excuse decision-making. Solving new crops of risks becomes the prime task rather than facing them. At some point, good managers act or quit on new technology and do it decisively. They and their employees gain nothing by endless studies. It is a fact of life that one can know as much as 90 or 95% of any given action, but the rest remains unknown. Managers who worry about the unknown too much fail themselves and subordinates. On the other hand, serendipity has led to great discoveries. Opportunistic managers use small, unforeseen insights to extraordinary advantage and the result may be far removed from the original plan for the technology. Great Organizational Changes Require Great Leaders. Managing during great technological change is not scientific. It is art based on skill, psychology, stubbornness, timing, and luck. Thus far in U.S. industry, few companies have been survivors?gaining the full benefits of tech- nology they sought to apply?without alienating workers. Compare the travails of Chrysler Corporation with those of International Harvester. On the one hand, an executive has taken a moribund company and given it a chance to live. On the other, a leader hastened a corporation's ruin. 120 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ICIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 However, it is unfair to damn the executive of International Harvester while canonizing Lee Iacocca. Both men had successful records before assuming their posts. Both men faced similar tasks requiring reduction of bad managerial and employee practices and installation of technology that would regain productivity and restore company health. For some reason, however, Chrysler held onto its employees' minds while International Harvester did not. Harvester's problem may well have been timing. The corporation took a strike at a time when real dangers were not yet apparent. The employees reacted bitterly, and help was not forthcoming when the company really began to plunge. The corporate executive is a politician negotiating diverse organizational differences and trying to gain action. He is not a passive player. He must have a view of where the organization is going. Further, he must have time to take it there plus the skills to push his views through every level of the organization where the real work is done. To do this, he must use all communications skills that a congressman considers essential. Unfortunately, too many executives have supplanted communications duties with planners, public relations departments, per- sonnel administrators, information systems, etc. The result has been dis- integration of the vision and aims of the organization. Departments eventually pursue their own goals to the exclusion of others. The executive must use every managerial skill he has to focus attention, and, of course, this must be done without creating irreparable hostility. Carl Von Clausewitz said a leader needs "genius," an indefinable quality not susceptible to scientific management or textbook formulations. Another writer, Ralph Z. Sorenson, formerly a professor at Harvard, summarized his experiences as a manager in a series of observations that seem to be common sense. The good manager requires: ? Ability to express oneself. ? Leadership skills. ? Broad human understanding. ? Courage and a strong sense of integrity. ? The ability to make positive things happen. This list is hardly complete or, for that matter, essential since effective leaders have failed in every one of the points. Moreover, it is disappoint- ing. It would seem that, after thousands of years of discussing and writing about great leaders, we would reach a more scientific and technological definition to help companies face new technology and the future. Thus far, we haven't. The problem may lie with the fundamental dichotomy between cu- mulative and moral knowledge. Cumulative knowledge can be written down to build a body of learning. Moral knowledge?ways of acting ethically and in relation to other humans?must be learned by each in- dividual all over from birth through life-choice decisions and experience. The Final Rule of Technological Change: There Are No Rules. There are numerous management and communications techniques, but no cook- book process that works in every case. For all the organizational behavior studies and case histories, each manager starts with the people at hand, the history peculiar to that organization, the cultural bias, and the change. 121 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Applying a process rigidly or not at all should be less a matter of dogmatism and more a case of pragmatic judgment. What works 10 times in a row may not work the 1 1 th. Thus each of the observations made above will have times of exception when they do not apply and should be discarded. For the orderly mind, it is frustrating. For the academic, it is a defeat of reason by illogic. The author hopes that futurists who are highly optimistic about the impact of technology will take to heart this lesson. New technology works only if people make it work. And that's not easy. 122 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The Segmented Work Force by Matthew J. Puleo It was a simpler world back then. At the end of World War II, Americans had an insatiable appetite for consumer goods. For one brief decade, all we had to do to sell something was to manufacture it and put it on the shelf. Workers were also easier to manage. We subscribed to a common goal?to build the American business machine?and Theory X was seen as an appropriate management tool. The rampant consumerism began to subside as the world moved into the 1960s. As competition increased, the marketing function moved to the forefront and became a critical business strategy. Marketers were under ?increased pressure to come up with the best recommendations for pricing, promotion, branding, etc. However, traditional market research, which produced demographic descriptions of the consumer marketplace, left a void. The information produced a vast array of techniques, facts, and figures, but there was no way to master this information in order to cut through the detail and focus sharply on new opportunities. In the '60s, Daniel Yankelovich realized that buying decisions were based on factors other than demographic influences. He, therefore, began to collect qualitative, nondemographic forms of information. As a result, he developed what is now referred to as nondemographic market seg- mentation, revolutionizing how we define markets and brand products today. For example, before market segmentation, the shampoo market targeted a demographic cut of the population, i.e., men, women, and children. In 1950, there were less than six major shampoos on the market. Nonde- mographic market segmentation allowed producers to expand their market share by focusing on incremental differences. This has resulted in con- sidering the market as a number of segments in lieu of a nondifferentiated total "market." The result is that today there are over 100 shampoos catering to value preferences such as natural substances, conditioning of the hair, daily, shampooing, etc. For the manufacturer, this method of segmentation has yielded a better return on investment. Matthew J. Puleo is vice president, Human Resource Group, Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc., New York, New York. 123 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The research we conducted as a firm to monitor the changing values and attitudes of the American public was expanded to look at the attitudes and values of the American work force. Several trends were beginning to emerge that would have an enormous impact on how we manage that work force. By the end of the 1950s, the idea that the U.S. was capable of nearly unlimited economic growth had become prevalent. With the rise of this unprecedented optimism came a new social phenomenon?a psy- chology of affluence. We as a society believed that affluence was no longer something for which to struggle. Instead, it was a logical by-product of America's endlessly expanding economy. As we moved through the social revolution of the '60s and early '70s, the necessity for conformity and adherence to the Protestant work ethic was being questioned. Our classic American values, based on the Prot- estant ethic, with its flexible standards and requirement of self-denial and self-sacrifice, now seemed irrelevant. We asked ourselves, as a society, Why should we submerge our individuality in order to fit society's model of a desirable person? Why should we submerge our desires today for future rewards? And finally, Why should we submerge inclinations for pleasure in behalf of productivity? The answer was an overwhelming "It's no longer necessary." The psychology of affluence was so prevalent that workers, particularly youn- ger ones, became less willing to change masks when they crossed the corporate threshold. In addition, society pressured business to assume responsibility for its welfare and pressured government to step in and regulate business if it was unwilling to meet that responsibility. The Need to Change One of the ways corporate America responded to the changing work force was to focus on worker happiness rather than on worker productivity. The personnel function grew into the human resource function as a way to bring humanity into the workplace. Unfortunately, such approaches merely dealt with the symptoms and never developed a methodology for analyzing the causes. Much like the dilemma facing marketers in the '50s, the work force became increasingly difficult to understand and manage. Perhaps it is because we adopted a monolithic strategy for a pluralistic problem. The pervasive changes in society and the psychology of affluence leg- itimized the development of the segmented work force?a work force whose premise was a focus on self-needs?in opposition to an earlier one based on a submissive subservience to a common cause. The focus-on-self perspective had allowed nondemographic influences such as attitudes, values, esthetic concepts, purpose, and individual needs to become factors to be reckoned with by management. These influences were identical to those marketers used in making branding decisions. In effect, the social agenda of the "fix it" era allowed consumers to play out their wants and needs in the workplace. A New Definition Work today is subject to the same pressures as products in the mar- 124 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 ketplace. It is as if it were a segmented product to be sold to workers, not a commodity we buy from them. Specifically, because the employer/ employee contract has changed, it is those factors which are negotiated in and determinants of the contract, such as compensation, training, career development, etc., that are subject to this market segmentation. Before we continue, I would like to stress that traditional ways of making human-resource decisions should not be disregarded. Rather, they should be considered as only one of among many possible ways of analyzing the work force. In fact, the key requirement in taking a market segmentation approach is that the human-resource professional should never assume in advance that any one method of segmentation is best. The first task is to muster all probable segments and then choose the most meaningful one with which to work. This approach is analogous to that used in research in the physical sciences where the hypothesis that best seems to explain the phenomenon under investigation is the one chosen for working pur- poses. The human-relations movement of the "fix-it" era focused on the se- gementation based on individual needs and satisfaction to the exclusion of all others and was primarily psychological in orientation. Human- resource systems, however, collected information on a predominantly demographic basis. Occasionally they converged and provided direction for recruitment, promotional policies, retirement planning, etc. But more often than not it just added to the confusion. For example, a recent finding from our ongoing study of the work force called "SIGNAL" shows a 50- point difference between top management and the total labor force on how well companies were perceived by the average employee in satisfying their needs as individuals. Even though we focused on individual needs, we fell far short of our mark. The New Work Force As we moved into the '80s, the work values became more entrenched and pervasive. Today we have five clearly defined groups in the work force, each one encompassing approximately one-fifth of the total. These groups have different priorities, different life-styles, and different stances vis-a-vis wOrk and cut across traditional demographic segments. It is easiest to think of these groups as old-values and new-values workers. The-two-new-values -groups tation-y The first group we call2IftilfillrWrit_seekers.IL-A-fulfillment7seeke places_more.emphasis761-1.461ratd:career:than-on-interpersonal-relatior eiips7C-ommitm-ent7wfulfilling=work:is7the:ker There is a strong com- mitment potential to the organization if they find their work fulfilling. What clearly differentiates this group from the other new-values group is that money will not be taken as a substitute for psychic rewards. De- mographically, they are highly educated, disproportionately professional, and have the highest concentration in high-tech industries. Th?e7other_new-values -group -Is-called .money-or..exci errnmit .seekers. " il'hey...-sa-CarftilIZ:rich-lifestyle-and-the-money-necessary toTathiUre:in At work_money-is-the-dominant_consitlerati-on_and:they_are-willitTFJD tWaTt-increased _monetary-rewards _to_compensate_foIack-of-Tfisyehic 125 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 - - rewards from work. They are willing to commit to and do more for an organization, to a point.,When they have sufficient money to-pay for their_ level-of satisfaction outside of work; they will not-become involved in commitmentsthatiTifrin-ge--on- their life-style interests. Demographically, they tend to be of average education and disproportionately represented in white-collar clerical and sales positions. Interestingly enough, there are more women than men in this category. Old-values workers, as the label implies, have their roots in the past. They adhere to the traditional work values that have guided American workers for decades?the Protestant work ethic. Old-values workers are categorized in one of three ways. First, there are the uncommitted. This is a segment of the population that is turned-off. They often have adopted an adversarial role or are disillusioned because they are unable to attain the rich, full life they thought they were entitled to. The second group is job-oriented. Specifically, they are interested in security and a job. The third are called the work-oriented. Work-oriented employees are com- prised of a relatively well-educated group with a large proportion of profes- sionals who are interested in strengthening their work skills and abilities. They are also strongly committed to their jobs and to working per se. However, there is little or no interest in maximizing earnings by making unattractive trade-offs. It is clear to see from this brief description of the values groups how inadequate demographic information is in determining human-resource policies. Within both thenew-values and old-values groups, workers and their needs differ dramatically. For example, although all new-values workers are relatively intolerant of a static ritualistic work environment, fulfillment seekers look for a different structure than do money seekers. Although both thrive on psychic challenges, they seek it differently. They look for career advancement but do not view money in the same way. Human-resources policies must, therefore, recognize that the work force is a segmented community. New Rules What are the implications of a segmented work force and the use of a marketing approach to deal with that work force? Several challenges and opportunities come to mind. For example, fringe benefits are a part of every corporate reward system. The pauralistic woiVforce has Created a n-e-ed to move from a uniform benefits package to a -cg.eteria?plan7--, With increasing erriphasis o-n-Cogt effectiveness, managers are looking for - ways to-satMr-employee demands while meeting bottom-line objec A marketing approach provides a mechanism for determining what is really being asked for in a benefits package and how to get workers to buy into it. If we wanted to make health care more cost-effective, what would a marketing approach give us? The myth is that workers view health care as a non-negotiable item. The belief that workers are entitled to the best care money can buy, with someone else footing the bill, provides a major obstacle to cost-containment efforts. "SIGNAL," however, indicates that values have shifted considerably 126 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 and that workers are ready to address problems such as the increasing cost of health care. Specifically, we have found the following shifts: ? Workers are developing a new cost-effectiveness orientation. Benefits are now measured more against costs and less against abstract ideals. ? Workers are becoming "smart shoppers"; they are willing to plan, to depend on new information, and to trade off convenience for quality and value. ? Workers have decreased their reliance on traditional providers of goods and services. They are more apt to stress self-reliance and entre- preneurship and are bypassing traditional distributors, including profes- sionals. ? Workers are demanding information about company plans and pro- grams that affect their well-being and they are eager to participate in identifying solutions to problems. In summary, workers have become more critical and inquisitive than in prior years. They are ready to examine the quality and cost of services such as health care rather than accept the services carte blanche. Above all else, they are eager to join forces with their company to solve joint problems. Conclusion What has occurred in the last two decades? A business creates systems to meet its own business goals. However, workers' values and attitudes follow the trends and norms in our society. As society and business move in their own particular directions, gaps occur. Marketing segmentation analysis provides a mechanism to define those gaps. Marketing work puts a manager in a position to bridge them. Human-resources departments and professionals have been asked to fill those gaps by finding new ways to manage employees. Is not the marketing of work to a segmented work force the answer? 127 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Computer Technology and Employee Resistance in Future Work Environments by Alan W. Ewert and Alison E. Voight Computer technology is rapidly becoming an integral part of many administrative and management systems. In 1982 alone, over 1,440,000 computers were shipped throughout the world (Blundell, 1983), with one million of these units being used within the United States. Analysts expect this number to rise to 9.8 million units shipped annually throughout the world by 1990. Indeed, a new revolutionary, technological wave has begun, bringing with it the promise of dramatic changes in the way people live and work, perhaps even the way they think (Friedrich, 1983). A wide variety of organizations are being touched by the wave of computer technologies. Many agencies are turning to computers as a more efficient and effective means of delivering human services (Sharpless, 1981). One of the first studies to produce data on computer use in human service delivery systems came out of the Public Policy Institute at the University of California, Irvine. Of the over 1,000 municipal governments that responded to the survey, 59 reported at least one computer application in use or under development for one type of human service delivery system: recreation (Sharpless, 1981). As is true with any major revolutionary change, problems and conflicts may arise as a result. Computers have created a great deal of apprehension and resistance regarding their implementation and uses. This article will attempt to depict the prevalence of computer use in the workplace; staff resistance and deterrents to computer usage; the overall effect of computer usage regarding department functions and their employees; and sugges- tions for the alleviation of staff resistance. Prevalence of Computers Increased work loads, reduced resources, and tighter demands for ac- countability have forced recreation administrators to explore new and more efficient ways of doing their business. Computers are swiftly infiltrating Alan W. Ewert is assistant professor, Department of Recreation and Park Manage- ment, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon. Alison E. Voight is assistant professor, Department of Recreation and Leisure Studies, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, Vermont. 128 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: [CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 the management of human services as a more expedient method of deliv- ering services and establishing accountability. Although many profes- sionals feel that the computer is too impersonal for use in a human services field, it should be regarded as a tool, and used as such (Cheng, 1982, p. 14). The many areas in which it has already successfully been imple- mented include: financial accounting, attendance records, registration, scheduling, reservations, inventory control, and facility management (Cheng, 1982; Howe, 1982; Cheek, 1982). Regardless of the prevalence of computers, their effectiveness among organizations will ultimately depend on the attitude of managers, admin- istrators, and staff. The role of computers in agency operations and the information they are programmed to produce is placed on a foundation? the management system. If the management system is not functional, then the application from a computer will lead to either redundant information or the non-use of computer services (Siderelis, 1981, p. 121). Basically, the administrator/manager should strive for a usable end-product: a func- tional computer system, with workable programs, and a staff that chooses to work with rather than against, the computer, resulting in a compre- hensive system that creates more positive benefits than negative results. Generally, the reception of computers by management and administra- tion agencies has been favorable. In a nationwide survey conducted by the Leisure Research Institute at Indiana University in May and June of 1981, 92% of the administrators who responded wanted to see greater use of computers in their departments (Sharpless, 1981). Seventy-five percent felt that computers would greatly improve the way departments do their work, and 76% agreed that computers could solve a great deal of the problems facing their organizations (Sharpless, 1981; Watts, 1980, 1981). But while administrators may be eager to implement computer programs in their departments, their employees, who must work directly with the computer, may be less enthusiastic. Despite the imminence of the computer and the many benefits associated with computer use, many professionals seem to resist the change (Cheng, 1982, p. 14; Malinconico, 1983a). Staff Resistance and Deterrents to Computer Usage It is natural for people to resist changes that deviate from a traditional method of operating (Siderelis, 1981). A simple reallocation of a worker's responsibility to accommodate the introduction of the computer may have unfavorable consequences on his/her organizational values and working relationships (Siderelis, 1981, p. 118). Ultimately, the success of the operation that implements a computer into its system will be dependent upon the acceptance of the new technologies by the staff. What is of paramount importance to many employees when faced with computeriza- tion and automation is their concern over losing their jobs and/or obtaining the necessary level of skills to be able to effectively use the technology (Strauss and Sayles, 1965; Elizur, 1970; Shepard, 1971; Dorf, 1974; Brod, 1982; Covert and Goldstein, 1980). Siderelis (1981) suggests that there are several reactions to the augmentation of computers, including ag- gressive behavior (attacking or sabotaging the information fed into the computer); protective behavior (blaming the computer for operational 129 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 difficulties or projecting their own failures onto the computer); and avoid- ance behavior (ignoring computer printout information and only using existing information). While it is possible to mandate employee use of computers, negative behaviors might arise as a result of this authoritarian approach. Because of their unique ability to perform tedious, rote types of tasks, computers are particularly threatening to people who have jobs involving tedious, rote types of work. Paradoxically, personnel involved in human services may find themselves in the uncomfortable position of replacing people with machines that are more efficient. Additional research has further substantiated the staff member's concern over lack of skills or obsolescent skills (Dalton and Thompson, 1970; Shaiken, 1981). The changeover of skills required by the implementation of a computer system can often precipitate an escalating error or anxiety cycle, with debilitating results for the organization as well as for the employee (see Figure 1). Besides concern over loss of jobs or acquiring the necessary skills to work in a computer-facilitated operation, Shepard (1971) reports that com- puters can create three aspects of work alienation: powerlessness, mean- inglessness, and normlessness. More specifically, introducing computers can cause staff to perceive a lack of control over the work process, an inability to identify one's role in the workplace (a provider of human services or a machine attendant), and a lack of confidence in proper rewards (i.e., the machine gets most of the credit). Another deterrent to computer use is the wide spectrum of ethical, technical, social, and philosophical problems it may create. Because of their complexity and associated esoteric jargon, computers have the ability to give the appearance of change or increased efficiency while everything actually remains the same (Foster, 1970). Professionals must not fall prey to this "aura" of infalibility surrounding the computer. They should avoid the trap of assuming what comes out of the computer printout is completely factual and error-free. Information that is flawed to begin with will be transformed into erroneous data. Although the high cost of computers is also considered a deterrent to their implementation, the major deterrent is the lack of computer knowl- edge by department personnel (Sharpless, 1981). So while modern tech- nologies may elicit certain conditions, imagined or actual, the computer becomes a symbol of change within the workplace creating uncertain outcomes. This uncertainty produces a stressful condition (Brod, 1982) that may ultimately result in employee resistance to computer technology. Alleviating Staff Resistance Resistance to computer technology can be costly both in fiscal as well as human terms. Delayed schedules, staff polarization, and lowered per- formance all serve to decrease the viability of the organization. Antici- pating and alleviating staff resistance to the computer system and the "change" it represents is a skill managers and administrators will need to deal with in future situations (Maynard, 1982). Strauss and Sayles (1965, p. 263) address this concern in their statement: "An organization must anticipate changes by altering its own policies and structure in time to meet these new conditions." 130 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Figure 1 Computer/Employee Anxiety Cycle Introduction of Computers Changing Demands Within Work Environment Decreased Productivity Increased Anxiety Frustration Hostility It Demoralized User Stress Increased Errors Delayed/Facility Output Management Pressure Increased Errors Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Increased Anxiety and Pressure 131 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 It should be noted that the computer can, and usually does, bring about very positive results, such as greater efficiency in payrolls, employee records, and report filing. A problem often arises when only a limited number of staff realize these benefits. For example, the computer operator and the superintendent's staff may be the only people in the entire or- ganization who can "see" the beneficial effects of computerization. Other employees only recognize the changing and often greater work require- ments. While the benefits are real, the remaining staff may view them as nonexistent because of a lack of awareness. More often, they view the computer as generating more, not less, work for them. Elizur (1970) reports that after initial resistance to computerization, staff members generally began to like the presence of computers. They found the work more varied but also more demanding, and were more satisfied with job security although upward mobility decreased due to the need for more education or training. Most of the workers studied disliked how the change-over was accomplished, as agencies provided little training and preparatory information. Shutz and Weber (1966) found that work performance did not suffer appreciably when employees were given enough time to adjust to changes brought on by computerization. Wilensky (1972) has suggested three approaches for dealing with any alienation and bore- dom associated with introducing automation through computers: compen- sating leisure activities, increased benefits, and job variability. Along similar lines, Herzberg, Mausner, and Snyderman (1964) and Meyers (1964) investigated motivations to work and found the main mo- tivators of workers to be: achievement, recognition, responsibility, growth, and advancement. If the research of Herzberg, Mausner, and Snyderman is correct, the computer can be a useful tool in providing pathways for greater staff achievement through recognition of growing computer skills, new levels of responsibility, and personal growth. Earlier ,research (Benne, 1956; Schein, 1960; Zander, 1950; Lewin, 1947) has substantiated the view of facilitating the growth of both the group and the individual through the change process. Zander (1950, p. 10) establishes this point by stating that: Resistance will be prevented to the degree that the changer helps the changees to develop their own understanding of the need for the change, and an explicit awareness of how they feel about it, and what can be done about those feelings. Employers may find the introduction and utilization of the computer to be a useful process for both the development of their staff's specific skills and affective relationships. Short computer training seminars may be val- uable in allowing the staff to deal with a subject in which everyone starts with basically the same skill level. A Planning Strategy The following strategy has been developed to aid the administrator/ manager in planning and implementing a successful computer system for both the organization and the staff: Time: Allow enough time to adequately plan and think through the system. Important concerns should include: actual needs for computer- ization; functions of a new system; cost of the system such as consultation, 132 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 maintenance, acquisition, extra equipment (peripherals), space require- ments, supplies, and necessary personnel (Ceriello, 1982). Personnel: Whatever staff may be "touched" by the computer system should be encouraged to express their concerns and make recommenda- tions. Previous research already cited has confirmed the problem of lack of communication between the higher staff echelon and the line staff members. If appropriate, allow for group decision-making in areas such as: location, users, and training (Malinconico, 1983b). In using computers to aid in the decision-making process, the administrator/manager must be concerned with the following questions: Are decisions made as promptly with computers? Are the decisions as fair with computers as without? And finally, does the computer process offer adequate opportunity and time for reflection and decision-making? Training: Staff should be made aware of what they can expect from the computer system in terms of changing work requirements and the operating procedures of the organization. Training, for those persons di- rectly involved in the system, should identify the specific communication patterns, i.e., getting the machine to work for the individual, types of work, changing time patterns such as scheduling deadlines, task-related thinking functions, increased hand-eye coordination, and changes in the work environment. The primary goal is to give the employee a sense of control over the machine, rather than feelings of helplessness. Frustrations can be removed by reinforcing coping mechanisms that can lead to greater employee productivity and involvement with the computer. Finally, ad- ministrators/managers should strive to create productivity cycles to replace the anxiety cycles previously mentioned. Figure 2 illustrates a computer/ employee productivity cycle. Adequate time for training procedures should be allocated within the organization to allow staff members ample practice sessions with the computer system to upgrade their skills. A four-step procedure can be incorporated in the training phase of the organization: 1) preparing for new demands, 2) handling new demands, 3) evaluating that handling, and 4) improving upon that response. Identifying Organizational and Individual Needs: While initially con- sidered in the planning stage, organizational needs should be further de- fined using two criteria: prioritizing and flexibility. Prioritizing needs to occur in the areas of: projects in which the computer is critical, projects in which the computer can be useful, and projects in which other devices such as people can be as equally effective as a computer. Prioritizing can also answer the questions of who is in charge, who gets the information, and how the information can best be used (Rothman and Mosmann, 1976). From an individual staff member's point of view, computers are often perceived dichotomously, that is, either as a useful tool or problem-causing entity (Lee, 1970; Cancro and Slotnick, 1970). Miller (1971) suggested that a person's attitude is the most important aspect of a successful human- computer relationship. Enabling an individual to see how the computer can improve their operations within the organization will be a powerful tool for the administrator/manager to use in facilitating the staff's transition to computer technologies. 133 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Figure 2 Computer/Employee Productivity Path Introduction of Computers Changing Demands Within Work Environment Increased Initial Stress Productivity and Anxiety Increased Employee Competence IC More Employee Learning Training Initial Success With System Increased Employee Enthusiasm For Computer System 134 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Increased Productivity Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Evaluation of Computer Usage and Department Functions Any strategy is prone to error through the two factors of conceptuali- zation and implementation. While increasingly sophisticated computer systems will negate the manager/administrator's need for a high level of technical computer competence (Philipson, 1962), evaluation of the com- puter system in terms of technology and its effects upon the staff will also be important to the overall performance of the organization. In specific terms, the evaluation of the computer operation should include the fol- lowing questions: Does the system do what it is supposed to? Is the system enhancing or deteriorating the morale of the staff? Are appropriate staff being adequately trained? Is polarization taking place in the staff?those who are aided by the computer versus those who remain wary of it? In designing the evaluation format, Thompson and Dalton (1970) have warned against creating one grand performance appraisal to serve all of the administrative and management needs of an organization. Appraisal of the system and the staff's ability to deal with the system should be open and future-oriented. If the administrator/manager is to implement and operationize computer technologies, care must be exercised in acquiring the proper equipment and integrating the staff with the technology. Computer-generated stress can reduce staff productivity and create alienation. If computers are to be successfully implemented into human-oriented organizations, it will be- come necessary to be more than mere technicians. Future work environments will certainly involve a greater use of com- puterization (Naisbitt, 1982). In a similar fashion, the concern for em- ployee productivity will manifest itself, in part, by a greater emphasis on the psychological and affective health of the worker. If these two "waves" are to work synergistically rather than in opposition, the organization must combine the high-speed efficiency of machines with the sensitivity and feelings of people in an effective but humanistic manner. References Benne, K. Deliberate Changing As the Facilitation of Growth. In W. Bennis, K. Benne, & R. Chin (Eds.), The Planning of Change. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston. Inc., 1964. Blundell, G. Personal Computers in the Eighties. Byte, 1983, 8(1), 166-182. Brod, C. Managing Technostress: Optimizing the Use of Computer Technology. Personnel Journal, 1982, 6/(10), 753-757. Cancro, R. & Slotnick, D. Computer Graphics and Resistance to Technology. Amer- ican Journal of Psychotherapy, 1970, 24, 461-469. Ceriello, V. The Human Resources Management System: Part I. Personnel Journal, 1982, 6/(10), 764-767. Cheek, D. Visitor Surveys: A Snap with a Computer. Parks and Recreation, 1982, /7(4), 55-56. 135 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Cheng, V. Computers in Leisure Services. Recreation Canada, September 1982, 12- 16. Covert, M.D. and Goldstein, M. Locus of Control as a Predictor of Users' Attitude toward Computers. Psychological Reports, 1980, 47, 1167-1173. Dalton, G. and Thompson, P. Accelerating Obsolescence of Older Engineers. Harvard Business Review, November 1970. Dorf, R. Computers and Man. San Francisco: Boyd and Fraser, 1974. Elizur, D. Adapting to Innovation. Jerusalem: Jerusalem Academic Press, 1970. Foster, D. Computers and Social Change: Uses and Misuses. Computers and Auto- mation, August 1970, 31-33. Friedrich, 0. The Computer Moves In. Time, January 3, 1983, 14-24. Herzburg, F., Mausner, B., & Snyderman, B. The Motivation to Work. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1959. Howe, C. Let Your Computer Do the Calculating. Parks and Recreation, 17(1), 70- 72. Lee, R. Social Attitudes and the Computer Revolution. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1970, 34, 53-59. Lewin, K. Group Decision and Social Change. In T. Newcomb and E. Hartley (Eds.), Readings in Social Psychology. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., 1947. Maynard, W. Skills Managers Need to Survive. Administrative Management, 1982, 43(12), 33-71. Malinconico, S. Hearing the Resistance. Library Journal, January 15, 1983, Ill- 113. (a) Malinconico, S..Listening to the Resistance. Library Journal, February 15, 1983, 353-355. (b) Meyers, M.S. Who Are Your Motivated Workers. Harvard Business, Review, Jan/ Feb 1964, 73-88. Miller, R. Human Ease of Use Criteria and Their Tradeoffs. IBM Poughkeepsie Technical Report, 1971, TTRoo.2185. Naisbitt, J. Megatrends. New York: Warner Books, 1982. Philipson, M. (Ed.). Automation: Implications for the Future. New York: Vintage, 1962. Rothman, S. and Mosmann, C. Computers and Society. Chicago: Science Research Associates, Inc., 1976. Schein, E. Interpersonal Communication, Group Solidarity, and Social Influence. Sociometry, 1960, 23(2), 148-161. Shaiken, H. Microprocessors and Labor: Whose Bargaining Chips? Technology Re- view, 1981, 83(3), 37. Sharpless, D. Trends in Computer Use in Parks and Recreation. Proceedings: National Workshop on Computers in Recreation and Parks, 1981, 111-116. Shepard, J.M. Automation and Alienation: A Study of Office and Factory Workers. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1971. Shultz, G. & Weber, A. Strategies for the Displaced Worker. New York: Harper and Rowe, 1966. Siderelis, Chrystos. Setting Up for Computerization: An Informational Analysis Ap- proach. Proceedings: National Workshop on Computers in Recreation and Parks, 1981, 117-141. Strauss, G. & Sayles, L. Personnel: The Human Problems of Management. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc. 1965. Thompson, P. & Dalton, G. Performance Appraisal: Managers Beware. Harvard Business Review, 48(1), 149-157. Watts, R. Computers in Parks and Recreation Preparation for the Future. Proceedings: National Workshop on Computers in Recreation and Parks. 1980, 37-48. 136 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Watts, R. Parks and Recreation Computer Education Survey. Proceedings: National .Workshop on Computers in Recreation and Parks, 1981, 143-154. Wilensky, H.L. Work, Careers, and Leisure Styles. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Har- vard Information Office, 1972. Zander, A. Resistance to Change: Its Analysis and Prevention. Advanced Management, 1950, 15-16, 9-11. 137 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: 'CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Tomorrow's Work Dilemma: Security vs. Access by Sanford B. Weinberg The moving power behind the acceptance of computers is and has been the continuing spread of access to the machines. In the not-very-dim past, a priesthood of data-processing professionals stood guard against all new- comers, making certain that only the jargon-initiated few could ever really touch, operate, or control the holy equipment. But severe shortages of trained personnel, growing pressures for performance, and technological revolutions brought about a generation of machines that, after a number of substages, can be easily and comfortably used by the unwashed mul- titudes. Microcomputers using menu-driven programs can be operated effectively by any noncyberphobic literate person. Expected advances, to be introduced in the very near future, will replace modified keyboards and typewriter entry systems with voice-activated units, making it possible to verbally command a computer, word processor, or analogous machine, further increasing access and eliminating "literacy" as a condition for successful operation.] There is, however, a more far-reaching matter in the area of increasing access. Accepting the apparently inevitable impact of computers on the workplace, a secondary and more potentially limiting dilemma can be anticipated. As one manager explained, "The only thing worse than me not knowing our inventory would be to have our competitors know as much as we do about it." The centralization of data inevitable in com- puterization raises a series of questions about the security of that data. The concern about that security may well prove to be the limiting force in the trend toward increased access, reliance upon, and use of computers in tomorrow's workplace. Security The FBI currently estimates corporate losses due to violations of com- puter security to be in excess of three billion dollars per year. The average detected computer theft nets $450,000. Even if discovered, the odds of the thief suffering a prison term are less than one in ten. Clearly, security problems are monumental, and deterrent forces are ineffective.2 Sanford B. Weinberg is department chairperson of administrative sciences, Saint Joseph's University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 138 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 At present, little can be done to prevent computer-related criminal acts. Contrary to popular belief, most security violations do not require a high level of intelligence or esoteric knowledge of a system. Most password keys are poorly protected or easily guessed, and many computer systems will provide suggestions for bypassing internal controls if properly asked. The simple and frightening fact is that almost any trained employee with access to a computer terminal can abuse that access with little fear of serious consequences. Our major operating protections today are post hoc audits that have had only ineffectual success in doing more than halting discovered abusive practices; the basic morality of our working populace; and a series of fast-exploding myths about how complex computer security systems really are.3 As access increases, the potentials for violations of security progress geometrically. It becomes more difficult to pinpoint the source of a breach. It becomes more difficult to build in limiting controls. And opportunities for unauthorized tampering grow as remote units are scattered around a company or around the country. Many units, for example, are connected to computer mainframes via phonelines. The potential to tap those lines, and hence monitor sensitive material or access restricted systems, has always been real. The recent and projected shifts to microwave and satellite-bounced phone transmis- sions make tapping even simpler, and even more difficult to detect. In- cidentally, in light of recent court rulings there is some question about whether or not any post hoc legal remedies exist to deal with intercepted microwave transmissions. It may well be quite legal to use a dish antenna to listen in on your competitor's computer, gaining confidential infor- mation about pricing, finances, or personne1.4 The move toward increased access, unless coupled with a parallel and as yet unrealized move toward more sophisticated security systems, creates a serious dilemma. More users means an increase in remote stations, and thus greater opportunity for violation. The greater number of users weakens responsibility and forestalls apprehension possibilities. An increase in access encourages greater depth as well as breadth of exposure, providing increased opportunity to accidentally or purposely discover methods of bypassing existing security restrictions. In short, the pressures to increase access are running head on into the growing problems of computer se- curity. Scenarios Some authors of science fiction have envisioned a world in which the dilemma is solved a la 1984. The society so predicted is filled with computers in every home, but police officers (sometimes in the same persona) looking over every shoulder. A few optimistic technologists have argued instead that new breakthroughs in security will allow us to slip between the horns of the dilemma, having universal access with tight privacy restrictions. Recently, for example, Honeywell introduced a sys- tem with a security protection guarantee, claiming it could not be violated in less than three years of intensive work. A Defense Department "tiger team" testing the system successfully breached it in less than 12 hours.5 139 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The far more likely scenario, though, suggests a significant modification in the workplace, varying not only from the status quo of computer use but from the apparent trends of today as well. The conflicting pressures for increased access and more strict security are likely to produce a shift over the next five to ten years (until blueprint-stage technologies providing greater security are perfected) to a computerized workplace unlike that imaged by most theorists, dreamers, or industrial engineers. Currently, networked intelligent terminals linked to a central data base predominate the market. Satellite stations used primarily for word pro- cessing, MIS applications, production control, MRP, and similar functions connect to common disk storage, printing, and processing facilities. Many Managers, fearful of spiraling maintenance costs and trends toward de- partmental "empire building," have resisted requests for freestanding units, opting instead for the network systems. Diverse physical locations, too, argue strongly for the interactive and interconnecting units. The effect is generally a company in which various departments interact with near simultaneous spontaneity with a central computer, using very limited local memory capacity to compensate for queuing delays and for handling brief word-processing functions. Departments can instanta- neously interact with the main computer, greatly increasing the speed with which data can be accessed and transmitted. The vulnerability such a situation creates, with the potential for abusive breach of internal restrictions, is not likely to continue to be tolerated. Compromises, including some loss of flexibility and speed, are likely to provide a necessary alternative in the name of stronger security protections. Prediction To balance the counteracting pressures of the need for security and a growing demand for free access to data and processing within a subsystem, we are likely to see a scenario relying with increasing commonality upon a network of microcomputers. Each free-standing micro could be used for different and secure computing functions, with a central switchboard linking them with specific authorization to shared or common data bases and programs. The use of a telephone-type network is particularly appropriate, for it allows constant monitoring of shared access, it allows rapid and accurate networking, and it provides the security of a two-step linkage process. That is, completing a phone call today requires (a) dialing the proper access code and (b) speaking or interacting over the phone line. The connection and communication steps are electronically and physically separate. Hypothesizing a continued need for rapid access and a growing security concern, what changes in the workplace can we reasonably imagine? The most reasonable expectation would be a continuing growth of telecom- munication, using phonelines and equivalents to share restricted-access data while using high-memory (256K) disk drive connected microcom- puters for most tasks. This combination requires a worker population with high user training but little expertise in technical and programming skills, and requires a general managerial acceptance of the presence and use of 140 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 the microcomputer units. Evidence of such acceptance will probably be realized when executives accept the substitution of magnetic (microcom- puter) records for paper (printed) equivalents. It is reasonable to expect, then, that the office of five to ten years from now will be equipped with one or more free-standing microcomputers, and with a security-controlled networking access device allowing linkage to other data bases. Managers will find themselves with responsibility for controlling the networking system to prevent the kinds of abuses that can result in a system reversal (and unauthorized access to internal systems). Workers will find increasing demands for computer literacy. On the other band, the security pressures explained above will probably prevent a more widespread use of linked mainframe computer terminals, or of electronic systems with the potential to replace more carefully monitored human workers. Conclusion There is little or no doubt that computers will have a profound effect upon the future workplace. Most predictions, however, have failed to examine the impact of increased concern for security as a mitigating factor restricting the spread of general-access computer systems. The use of microcomputers, externally linked to shared data bases, will help to com- pensate for the counteracting access-security pressures. Notes 1. Shorr, Melinda, "Voice Recognition," Yankee Group, September 1981. 2. Becker, Jay J., The Investigation of Computer Crimes, Dept. of Justice, Law Enforcement Administration, 1980. 3. Parker, Donn B., Ethical Conflicts in Computer Science and Technology, Ar- lington, VA, AFIPS Press, 1979. 4. Wurglitz, Alfred M., J. D., private interview. February 1983. 5. Kolata, Gina, "When Criminals Turn to Computers, Is Anything Safe?" Smith- sonian, August 1982. 141 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Innovation and Economic Strategy Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Innovation and New Institutional Structures by John Diebold I've always been fascinated by the Industrial Revolution and I think one of the questions one immediately poses, as I did when I was doing my student work, is, Why was the Industrial Revolution a revolution? Was it the machines? The conclusion I came to was that it wasn't the machines: The steam engine, the cotton gin, the railway, the power loom? all were extraordinary inventions. But the reason they were revolutionary was because they were agents for great social change. They were revo- lutionary because they took people out of the fields and brought them into factories. They gave us mass production and, through mass production, the first society in which wealth was not confined to the few. The Industrial Revolution produced a sense of hurry, a sense of time, a sense of goal that simply didn't exist previously. It changed human society and that's what was revolutionary, not the machines themselves. And I think that today, looking ahead at what is happening, the same thing is true. I think that if you had asked Richard Arkwright or James Watt if they thought they were changing society, they certainly would not have thought so. They were simply concentrating on what they were doing. One of the problems is that we are changing society with many of today's computer technologies, and it's very important to be conscious of that fact, and to think much more widely, as many of our leading scientists are doing, of what the social consequences and what the human meaning might be. Computers Will Revolutionize Other Businesses The really interesting developments have either already started and will be increasingly important in the years ahead, or are not quite recognized yet but will be very important in the years ahead. The computer industry has developed and grown in the last 30 years to what is today a big industry, but it has already started to shift. It is no longer only a capital industry producing capital goods. It has also become a consumer product industry, and that is going to be a very important part of the years ahead? John Diebold is president of The John Diebold Group, Inc., New York, New York. This article is based on a speech given at the World Future Society's Fourth General Assembly, "Communications and the Future," Washington, D.C., July 1982. 145 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 not orny prouucts, out services, and not only the direct products, but the indirect products, the incorporation of chips in automobiles and consumer products of all kinds, and in capital products of all kinds. There are a lot of consequences from this because it means that the main determinant of economic competitiveness internationally is increasingly going to be suc- cess in this field because this industry is going to determine success in almost all other services and in almost all other kinds of product areas. And the fact that it's not only becoming a consumer field but it's also going to materially change virtually all other businesses is of the utmost importance in terms of our own nation's well-being. Humans Will Interact More Easily with Machines The second observation I would like to make concerning the years ahead is the fact that the changes that are going on in the technology involve fundamentally extraordinary technical steps that will lead to material de- creases in costs, which means that machines can begin to do more and more complex things that will make things easier for human beings. Basically, the human/machine interface is getting much easier, and that is what I think is the real meaning of the technological changes: for example, the voice machines that respond in any voice you want; machines that handle graphics and that you can communicate with in graphics; and the great portability of these machines. All of these technological changes mean that we can begin to build systems that are able to handle the flow of information, which is the principal determinant of our society, and that are friendly and easy to use and that can adapt themselves to the human need in this area. That's a very important kind of change and it's composed of hundreds of innovations. The intertwining of this change with the other great developments of our times?the biological developments?is inevitable and obvious. The interesting part of the biological developments has to do with the fact that there are enormous volumes of information encoded within cells, which immediately shows you that we haven't gone as far as people think we've gone with regard to density of storage and the limits that we have in the current machine system. Obviously it's possible to go very, very much further than most of the people thinking about it from the outside realize. The intertwining of these two developments is going to be formidable. Several years ago, Vannevar Bush said we would end up with computers implanted in each of us, and we already have chips implanted in heart devices and we will have a multiplicity of increasing human involvements in this, but it also shows us the way toward doing a lot of things in terms of circuitry. Computers Will Change What We Do The third observation that I have is the fact that, so far, most of the use of automation has been to mechanize what we have done, what we do, to mechanize work that we've been doing. To a certain extent the second phase has started, and it will be an enormously important phase, and that is to change what we do. Already you can begin to find examples of the parameters of competition in business being totally changed as a result of the imaginative use of this new technology. Computer games, for instance, constitute an industry that is already 146 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 twice the size of the movie industry in the United States. The computer- game industry, which didn't exist a couple of years ago, is totally de- pendent upon interactive TV and computers. We now are totally changing the structure of some industries?not by mechanizing what we did yesterday but by providing services that weren't provided at all previously. This will be the dominant characteristic of the years ahead: the fact that we will provide services and products that simply weren't provided in the past. It is no longer a question of mechanizing what we've done in the past, but of doing quite new things. And one of the things that I've always used as my own construction on the future is that first, you mechanize what you did yesterday; second, you find that what you do changes; and third, you find that the society in which you're doing it brings about the greatest change of all. A few years ago, the stereotype was that developments in automation and computers meant rigid systems, highly centralized, monolithic types of structures that were de-humanizing. Today it's exactly the reverse. They are highly decentralized, very flexible, very human, increasingly friendly, and very easy to adapt in any way that people who are using them want. And what that means is, you make it easy to unleash human imagination and what that leads us to is something that we can hardly begin to guess. But it unleashes the most important force we have and that's really what is happening in this field. New Policy Issues My first observation concerning the future is that, to date, the devel- opments in automation and computers have raised relatively few discern- ible public-policy problems. Some of us feel that a lot of problems have been raised, but very few people perceive them at this point. But the period immediately ahead of us will witness the appearance of an increas- ing array of public-policy problems relating to this technology, and it's a very wide array indeed. What's a branch of a bank? Is a terminal a branch? What kind of communications policy should our country have? What about the rest of the world? We have a growing array of problems that increasingly encompass all areas of our public-policy process, but we have a very fragmented insti- tutional structure to deal with them. One example is antitrust. I cannot help but feel that it would be a fascinating irony if what the two Japanese companies have been indicted for in terms of theft of information from IBM is precisely the information that the European Economic Community (EEC) is trying to achieve through their antitrust actions. The Europeans' proposed remedy in their antitrust action would give precisely the infor- mation that the Japanese, according to the indictments, have been re- sponsible for stealing! Another irony of that situation is that if the EEC prevails, the beneficiary will be the Japanese because the one thing the European organizations have demonstrated in the last 30 years is an inability to bring to market competitive products in precisely these areas, and the one thing that the Japanese have demonstrated is the ability to do so. But what I'm trying to point out is that we now face a lot of real public-policy problems, and 147 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 I believe we're going to find many more of them. The most pressing of these is how to maintain the dynamism of U.S. society in terms of in- novation. Our Real Problems My second observation is that our problems tend to be debated at what I believe is an entirely incorrect level. The crisis issues of the moment? energy, or inflation, or interest rates, or whatever the current crisis may be?are not our real problems. Our real problems are a series of funda- mental institutional problems. I've identified four. You can pick a much wider list, but four might give you an idea of what I mean. Maintaining Our Ability to Innovate The first problem is, How can we in the United States maintain the ability to innovate, which is what has put us in the leadership position that we enjoy in the technology of automation? We've led because we can innovate; that is the thing we are best at. The great strength of America is its ability to innovate. This ability comes from the mobility of the highly educated population, the American belief in backing small enterprises and in getting things started. There is a whole mix of things that have made us very dynamic in this regard. But how do we ensure that the marvelous engine of cornucopia will continue to spew off the things that our society rests on, and that the marvelous stream of innovations from the Silicon Valley, Route 128, the Hudson Valley, and other parts of the country will continue. Our strength is innovation. What do we do to maintain it? We now have a society in which more and more factors work against taking risk. How do we maintain one in which there is a value system that encourages risk? I think this is worth a lot of attention and is a major determinant of what happens next. Lengthening Our Time Horizons A second problem is our time horizons. We have a very short time- scale in our decision-making, and that is true both at the private as well as public level. We tend to use a variety of very sophisticated tools such as discounted cash flow, which lead to decisions favoring short- rather than long-term investments. This is particularly true in periods of high interest rates. We have a time-scale in the political system that is extraor- dinarily short when one considers it is an area where decisions should be made not just for the lifetime of our children, but also for their children's lifetime. This ought to be the scale of thinking, and it isn't at all. Once, in our society, it was. I think we have a serious problem, and a very complex one. I've done some writing about it. It's not something we can quickly solve, because there are many factors involved. But I think that this is a problem that ought to receive a good deal of attention. At the very least, we ought to make decisions that are relevant to the lifetime of our chil- dren?which is not a particularly long period ahead to be thinking about, yet totally beyond the time horizon used in most decision-making today. 148 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Trade-off Systems The third problem is really a series of problems?problems of govern- ment and of the social structure that we operate within. For example, we have gradually built up a system in which there are thousands of places in which you can veto doing something, but we have no system of trade- offs?no organized method or way of going about setting priorities. We can block things all over the place?and every year we invent new ways, either legislatively or with the help of the massive numbers of lawyers we're turning out. We have gradually developed all kinds of veto points in society, but we have failed to develop trade-off systems. At some point, society has to be able to say, "We want to do all of these things but we can't," "This is more important than that," or "We can go so far on this and so far on that." We have very crude ways of making such decisions, but we really need a much better approach to setting priorities and providing trade-off mechanisms. We really don't have a workable system, and it's a very serious shortcoming in our society. It's very easy to find an authoritarian solution, but it's very tough to find a democratic solution, and that's what we need. Another facet of this issue is our lack of an adequate coordinating mechanism. How do we bring about trade-offs and coordinate our actions when arriving at public decisions? For example, how do we, as a society, stay ahead in the field of computers and automation? We now are ahead in it but we have a lot of very complex issues affecting what happens next, and we don't have a very good coordinating mechanism for handling what the implications are. The current debate over communications is another very good example. We don't have a good mechanism for arriving at public policy in this area and for taking account of the many variables that need consideration from the standpoint of our society's future well- being. We don't know how to arrive at such policy decisions and still keep flexibility and freedom, but it certainly ought to be possible to do so. I think that it may be easier to do that than to convert short-term to longer- term time horizons, but we certainly need to find a way to do it. The Germans and the Japanese both are able to do a better job than we do. The French go at it in their way. I don't think we should copy any of those, but devising our own approach is a task worth spending time on. Understanding the implications of discernible future change is an area that we ought to be innovating in. Some years ago, I suggested that we create autonomous institutes of the future?publicly funded but not tied to current budgets and insulated by public boards not related to the ad- ministrations. The institutes could take contradictory positions on partic- ular issues relating to the current impact of discernible future change, and to the future impact of current decisions. I continue to think that such institutes would be very useful. We clearly need some institutional in- vention in that area. A Guiding Vision The fourth and last problem is that of creating what I've characterized 149 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ICIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 as a guiding vision for society. French president Francois Mitterrand has stated that France's future society and economy will be determined by computers and automation; Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) has said that the main determinant of international com- petitiveness in the future in all fields is going to be the computer; and Singapore premier Lee Kuan Yew has made similar statements. These people have some kind of guiding vision and some view of how you draw things together. We need to invent a way to do that without decreasing our ingenuity or our individual initiatives, and without getting us into a structure that is not democratic or that goes against our history. We are going through an extraordinary social revolution and the changes in com- puters and in automation are one of the principal motive forces of that change. Our task is to try to ensure that this change ends up being to the benefit of mankind and not to its detriment. And the institutional change, the institutional inventing, and the political questions in this area are absolutely key determinants to our success. Regrettably, I see very little going on that is encouraging in that area. I see a lot that isn't. Some people are trying very hard to come to grips with this, and I think many more people should be concerned. I think we need to rethink the institutional relationships within our society because the technology has outpaced them, and we have outmoded structures in many areas that keep us from unleashing the human forces in the U.S. and other countries so that we can make good use of the technology that we've created. We must come to grips with the task of really making sure that we, as a society, use technology and science in an imaginative way. And it is that aspect that I think we should focus on in looking ahead at automation. 150 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 An Economic Strategy for the 1980s by Gary Hart I'd like to offer some perspective on how the high-technology revolution can be helped or hindered by a conservative institution?our government. When I use the term "conservative" to describe the federal government, I'm not referring to current political philosophies. I'm talking, from a more institutional viewpoint, about an enterprise responsible for balancing the needs and concerns of some 230 million people, an institution that historically has functioned best through incremental change, balancing of competing interests, and hard-fought compromise. Furthermore, history shows that there's a considerable gap between the development of a new technology and an ability to comprehend and adjust to all its ramifications. Many of our elected officials, all our regulators, are products of an older generation that is basically computer-illiterate, and that is, at a minimum, a bit wary about where all this change is headed. It could very well be that the only people who have an intuitive sense of how this technological revolution will affect our democracy are the twelve year-olds playing "Donkey Kong" over at the local convenience store. But until it's their turn to assume the political leadership of this country, we'll be dealing, to a certain extent, with a "lost generation" of political figures. We've got an incredible task ahead of us if we are to educate the federal government to work as an ally, rather than as an impediment, to our future progress. There is also the awesome challenge of re-educating the American worker to accept this new infusion of information technologies in the workplace. The fact is the drive toward the highly automated factory will affect American jobs and jobholders on an unprecedented scale. We will see a radical restructuring of work; current work skills will be devalued and new ones will be created at an ever-increasing rate. As many as 45 million existing jobs could be affected by factory and office automation, and much of that impact will occur in the next 20 years. One doesn't have to be an expert in political science to guess that the frustrations caused by this rapid change will be expressed in the political arena. Gary Hart is a Democratic U.S. senator from Colorado. 151 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 I say this not in a spirit of pessimism, but merely to present an honest picture of the tasks we face. In fact, I'm very confident that the American system, more than any of our competitors, is well-structured to use the opportunities provided by "high tech" developments to strengthen our entire industrial base. As a nation, we face a basic choice. We can engage in a battle between competing regions and competing industries for a share in piecemeal federal programs. Or we can try to get beyond the unnecessary and divisive sunrise/sunset and frost-belt/sun-belt debates and develop a strategy for encouraging the economic health of the nation as a whole. That's what I believe we should do?but we're not doing it today. Today, the federal government is practicing an ad hoc industrial policy, made up of subsidies and benefits for individual industries. Just a few examples of current industrial assistance programs make this point: ? Total expenditures for research for commercial fisheries are five times higher than R&D on new steel technologies. ? $5 billion was spent on R&D for the nuclear power industry, but only $943 million for coal. ? Tax breaks to the timber industry in 1980 totalled $455 million, while the semiconductor industry received no direct assistance. Look also at the "safe harbor" leasing provisions of the 1981 tax law. They were intended, in part, to encourage new investment by our older industries. Instead, they were used to shelter income by some of our biggest and most profitable oil companies. And tax law encourages hostile take- overs and mergers?with no new productive benefit to the economy?by making money borrowed for such purposes tax-deductible. We need a more rational set of policies that takes into account the needs of our economy today and for the next decade. We need policies that will help growing industries succeed and older industries become and remain competitive. Let me outline seven elements of such a strategy. First, we need a process, initiated at the highest level of government? by the president?to bring about industry-by-industry agreements on mod- ernization and growth. Representatives of management, labor, and the major sources of capital would sit down together to design ways to help our major industries become more competitive in this changing economy. Most importantly, this proposal of presidentially negotiated industrial modernization agreements is designed to make basic American manufac- turing industries the most modern and the most competitive in the world. The notion that we can rely on foreign autos, steel, chemicals, textiles, and other manufactured goods is unacceptable to me and to most Amer- icans. We can and must compete, but it will not happen by protecting worn-out industries?or by accident. Second, our approach to trade must be revised to provide greater com- petitiveness and greater access for American products abroad. I introduced a bill to address the restrictive trade practices toward high-technology products by some of our competitor nations. The idea behind the bill, which has been incorporated largely into the trade bill reported by the Senate Finance Committee, is to promote trade liberalization, rather than have our government duplicate the protectionist policies embraced by our 152 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 competitors. Third, we need to review and revise our regulatory policies to ensure that they are supportive of our efforts to strengthen American opportun- ities. Fourth, we need to increase government support for research and de- velopment. The percentage of spending for R&D in this country has fallen behind that of some of our international competitors, especially in the area of "pure" as opposed to "applied" research. The government should dedicate more attention to R&D and make more funding available for it. But we should also encourage cooperative research programs among private companies. Indeed, I feel that this is one of the key domestic initiatives needed to spur the development of our high-tech companies. Fifth, we must invest heavily in education. The first step is to establish excellence in education. Twenty-five years ago, the launching of Sputnik transformed our educational system and brought new emphasis to critical scientific and math teaching. Today, the challenge is no less serious, and we must once again bring our educational system into line with today's realities. To this end, I introduced the Amer- ican Defense Education Act, which focuses on improving our deficient science, math, and language studies throughout our nation's schools. At the university level, we are not graduating an adequate supply of scientists, engineers, and technicians. Plenty of students are eager to enroll, but our engineering and science schools do not have enough lab- oratories, equipment, or professional faculty to meet the demand. More- over, more than a third of the doctoral degrees awarded by American universities in engineering last year went to non-U.S. citizens on temporary visas. To break this bottleneck, federal support, through National Science Foundation grants, should be directed to universities for expanding and improving science and engineering facilities and for supporting faculty research and graduate students seeking advanced degrees. More generally, we need to enact a "High Technology Morrill Act" that would concentrate our resources and energies and do for high tech- nology what the first Morrill Act, the Land-Grant College Act of 1862, did for American agriculture. Finally, training and retraining literally millions of American workers will be a, if not the, major employment challenge of the 1980s. We need a broad-scale, flexible program to meet the immense, changing, and di- verse needs of American workers. One such system that looks quite prom- ising is the Individual Training Account in which joint employer-employee contributions would establish for each worker an account that may be used, when the worker is displaced, for retraining and for relocation. Sixth, we have to solve the most serious problems facing new enter- prises?the need for capital. We can enlarge the pool of available capital by identifying and employing underutilized capital resources, such as pension funds. They constitute an enormous potential source of capital: $800 billion this year, $4 trillion by the year 1995. Pension funds have remained largely untapped because of regulations that are too restrictive 153 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 and do not recognize the current capital-formation needs of our nation. We should also consider altering bank regulations to encourage equity investment in small firms. And by easing regulatory and application re- quirements on small business loans, we can reduce the relatively high cost of obtaining them. And at the state level, state development finance corporations should provide small businesses not only financial assistance but physical re- sources?such as computers, laboratories, and office space?and mana- gerial resources?such as management counseling and assistance in labor negotiations?as well. Finally, we should encourage entrepreneurial activity in all areas of industry. We should maximize the unique assets of the American industrial culture?and that means creating the necessary preconditions for entre- preneurial activity to expand and flourish. One reason I reject the Japanese model for industrial growth is that its emphasis on centralization and consensus works to inhibit the risk-takers, the entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurial activity is opportunistic by its very nature, so no static federal model is going to work. But by working to eliminate many of the impediments to entrepreneurial success, we can allow the risk-takers in our society to reach the gold ring and succeed. These are some examples of the kinds of creative approaches we could take if we had a well-thought-out national industrial strategy. The potential clearly exists for developing policies that will enable our high-tech industry and related businesses to compete aggressively in the future. Americans, after all, are not afraid of change?we love it. No nation has been more willing to experiment, to take risks, than ours. 154 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Technological Innovation and Economic Development by Fred Best These remarks have been prepared to facilitate discussion of the role of technological innovation in the overall scheme of economic develop- ment. The following sections will discuss: (1) the growth and importance of high-technology industries to economic revitalization, (2) the activities and findings of the California Commission on Industrial Innovation, and (3) an exploratory framework for isolating and assessing economic prob- lems and potential solutions. The Growth and Importance of Technological Innovation During the last few years, the United States has been confronted with waves of technological innovation that have provided hope for rekindling the dynamics of the American economy. Since the 1960s there has been discussion of the impacts of technology and automation on the American economy.' Although technological advances occurred at a crisp rate, noth- ing resembling the predicted tidal wave of change emerged until the last few years. After years of forecasts, we are not confronted by wave after wave of innovations that are having profound effects on our personal and occu- pational lives. The advent and growth of the video recorder is just begin- ning to revolutionize communication and entertainment. Over three million Americans purchased home and personal computers during 1982, and some six million more are expected to make similar purchases in 1983.2 If the cost of purchased or rented computer time continues to decline at its historic rate of 50% every 21/2 years, and the complexity of utilization is reduced by "user-friendly" software,3 the assimilation of computers into every aspect of our lives can be expected to explode at geometric rates. The number of industrial robots used within the United States has grown from 200 in 1970 to 3,500 in 1980, and is expected to pass 35,000 by 1990.4 Perhaps more important is the 'cybernetic' promise of integrating Fred Best is president of Pacific Management and Research Associates, Sacramento, California. 155 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 computers and automated machinery. The growing use of CAD/CAM systems (Computer-Assisted Design/Computer-Assisted Manufacturing) now allows industrial planners to design products on computer screens and then reformat machinery on the shop floor by pushing a few buttons.5 The implications for increasing productivity and product diversity are spellbinding.? Other innovations in the areas of energy production and utilization, bio- technology, new materials, and medical services offer equally revolu- tionary implications.7 The direct and indirect importance of expanding "high-tech" industries to the U.S. economy promises to be phenomenal. Computers, robots, communication technologies, and other innovative products are oversha- dowing and sometimes displacing traditional markets. For example, the value of the home and personal computer market has grown from $1.8 billion in 1980 to approximately $4.9 billion in 1982.8 If the number of "personal computers" sold worldwide grows from about 1.5 million in 1982 to the 11 million projected for 1990,9 the market implications are startling. The direct and indirect impacts on the job market are equally earth- shaking. Nationally, the growth of employment in high-technology in- dustries alone will account for some 7% of all new jobs between 1980 and 1990. In California, these industries will directly provide about 9% of all new jobs (see Tables 1 and 2).10 Indirectly, these industries are expected to stimulate about twice this amount again in support and service jobs.11 Beyond job creation, the technologies produced by these industries will fundamentally alter the nature of work and skills required from employees in every sector of the economy. Word-processing and communication technology is just beginning to affect office work,12 and CAD/CAM and robotics will drastically change the face of America's manufacturing and commerce sectors. These changes not only offer new hope for increased productivity, economic growth, and new job opportunities but also con- front us with the challenge of negotiating institutional and human adjust- ments that have not been faced since the first "Industrial Revolution." The challenges and opportunities presented by technological innovation are particularly pronounced in California. Since the early days of aerospace and atomic research, California has been an acknowledged leader in tech- nological innovation. This lead has been maintained with computers, bio- technology, energy research, medical breakthroughs, and robot design. Clearly, encouragement of these industries and responses to the adjust- ments they foster is a primary policy concern of the state government. The California Commission on Industrial Innovation In an effort to assess the direction of technological innovation and encourage its growth within the California economy, Governor Edmund G. Brown, Jr., established the California Commission on Industrial In- novation by Executive Order during November 1981. This commission, for which I had the privilege of serving as deputy director, was chaired by Governor Brown. The commission and an interlocking set of advisory 156 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Table 1 Sources of California Jobs, 1970-1990 1970 1980 1990 Growth 1980-1990 Total Jobs 8,023.9 11,146.5 13,917.0 24.9% High Technology 273.0 492.2 726.7 47.6 Computer Services 11.4 43.3 128.3 196.3 Computers 52.8 97.1 163.0 67.9 Instruments 50.3 123.1 147.5 26.4 Communication Equipment 102.9 130.1 163.3 25.5 Electronic Components 55.6 98.6 124.6 19.8 Service 1234.8 2082.9 2856.6 37.1 Trade 1530.8 2267.5 2917.2 28.7 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 374.5 620.9 794.5 28.0 Other Manufacturing 1078.7 1338.9 1642.0 22.6 Mining 31.4 42.9 51.9 21.0 Aircraft/Space 217.7 213.3 237.7 11.4 Self-Employed, Household Workers, Other 1858.3 2321.1 2736.5 17.5 Government 1424.7 1766.9 1953.9 10.6 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 - Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Table 2 Employment in California's High-Technology Industries Industry 1980 Employment 1990 Employment 1980-1990 Growth Rate Biotechnology 2,000 9,000 300.5% Photovoltaics 1,000 4,000-10,000 900.0% Robotics/Computer-Aided Manufacturing 1,000 5,000-10,000 900.0% Computer Software and Data Processing Services 43,300 128,300 196.3% Computers and Peripherals 97,100 163,000 67.9% Electronics Components 98,600 124,600 19.8% Aircraft and Space 213,300 237,700 11.4% Instruments 123,100 147,500 26.4% Communication Equipment 130,100 163,300 25.5% TOTAL High Technology 709,500 993,400 40.0% TOTAL California 11,146,500 13,917,000 24.9% committees worked throughout 1982 to conduct analysis and develop recommendations. Attention was focused upon the three areas of: 1. Financing research and investment in technological innovation. 2. Adjusting education to better meet the needs of emerging jobs. 3. Encouraging more productive relations between management and labor. The commission met six times during 1982. During this time, an em- phasis was placed on open dialogue in an effort to avoid needless polar- ization of representatives from different interests and to foster productive "problem-solving" activities. Over the year, the commission produced a series of technical reports assessing current trends and emerging developments in key "high-tech" industries," and a final report titled Winning Technologies, which sum- marizes analysis and recommends policies to encourage technological innovation and facilitate their assimilation into the U.S. economy and society.I4 Highlights of this final report follow: Introduction and History of Commission (Chapter 1): This chapter sum- marizes the formation of the commission and highlights some of the leading concerns of individual members. Toward a National Industrial Strategy (Chapter 2): Issues are concerning whether or not state and federal governments should engage in a more explicit effort to work with business, labor and other groups to develop a "strategic plan" to encourage our most promising industrial sectors. California and United States policies are compared to those of European countries and Japan. 158 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Encouraging Investment and Research in Technological Innovation (Chapter 3): This chapter reviews current data concerning investment and research and suggest a variety of approaches for accelerating these activities. Some of the recommendations include expansion of government grants and tax credits to encourage research and development, removal of unnecessary anti- trust barriers to cooperative research, elimination of long-term capital gains taxes, use of pension funds to encourage innovation and more reciprocal trade agreements. General Educational and Job Training Needs for the Future (Chapter 4): A review of the best available state and national data concerning the nature of employment in the future suggests a need to improve and expand the caliber of math, science, and technical education, develop effective approaches for retraining mid-career workers, and provide general skills for living in a more technically complex society. Elementary and Secondary (Chapter 4): This chapter, developed primarily by Michael Kirst, notes a critical shortage of math and science teachers at the K-12 level and suggests possible solutions, emphasizes the importance and potentials of computer training and computer-assisted instruction along with recommendations, suggests a variety of incentives that might be used to increase the study of math and science, and outlines potential revenue sources. Vocational Education and Job Training (Chapter 5): This chapter rec- ommends a "Master Plan" for vocational and job training that would emphasize performance assessment and integrated planning to insure optional use of re- sources; suggests improved linkages between education and work through job- based training, increased involvement of business and labor in educational planning, and selected use of private sector resources; proposes increased em- phasis on updating teachers, curriculum, and educational facilities; and supports a variety of steps to provide effective retraining opportunities for established workers. Higher Education and Graduate Training (Chapter 6): This chapter ex- amines today's existing shortage of scientists and engineers and suggests ex- panding training capacities by selectively increasing faculty salaries, providing assistance and incentives to encourage graduate study in selected fields, and improving campus-based teaching and research facilities. Initiatives are sug- gested to improve the "technical literacy" of college graduates, including a "liberal science" program; and resumed emphasis is urged for campus-based research activities. Revenue sources and resource realignments are suggested. Partnerships for Productivity (Chapter 8): This chapter discussed how undue polarization between management and labor can undercut the motivation to work and foster resistance to technological innovations that are essential to economic revitalization. Recommendations to give employees a "stake in pro- ductivity" include tripartite boards to encourage labor-management coopera- tion, technical and economic assistance to encourage productive application of new technologies in ways that benefit employees, and profit-sharing options. The analysis and recommendations are not only supported empirically, but have also passed the first test of political viability in that they have been generally reviewed and supported by the commission. Need for Comprehensive Thinking The development and application of new technologies will clearly play a critical role in regalvanizing both the California and the U.S. economy. At the same time, it must be emphasized that technological innovation is 159 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 only one component in the total formula for economic recovery. As such, efforts must be made to integrate the promise of these innovations into an overall economic strategy. While there is widespread agreement that the California and American economies are faltering, there is considerable debate over the causes of this suboptimal performance and prospective solutions. Disagreement over the basis of today's economic problems ranges from belief that the econ- omy is fundamentally sound and experiencing a short-term cyclic downturn to concern that we confront long-term structural problems dealing with technology, labor supply, investment levels, and other conditions requiring major institutional changes. Further, there is widespread disagreement over the relative importance of varied factors believed to be causing both short- and long-term problems. Needless to say, such varied viewpoints concerning the causes of U.S. economic problems have complicated the task of developing a working consensus concerning both the choice and interrelation of solutions. Realistically, there is no one set of solutions that can be expected to solve all our economic problems. Indeed, the development and selection of solutions is likely to require trade-offs between objectives and the relative importance of objectives. As such, it is critical to develop an overview of the factors alleged to foster economic problems, empirically assess the existence and nature of alleged problems, and develop some consensus concerning the relative importance of documented problems as a prerequisite to policy development. It is also likely that there is more than one set of solutions that might effectively combat any specified group of economic problems. At the same time, there is a danger that a chosen set of solutions may not be the best combination for combating problems or, even worse, entail contra- dictions that may undermine desired results. Hence, it is increasingly important that public and private sector policy makers strive to develop a working consensus concerning the overall nature and relative importance of today's economic problems. Factors Contributing to Economic Problems The final report of the California Commission on Industrial Innovation provided a provisional outline of factors that may be contributing to the economy's suboptimal performance. For purposes of discussion, this list has been grouped into seven major categories: Poor Economic Climate and Attitudes. It has been suggested that the overall economic environment has undermined the confidence and economic perfor- mance of individuals and firms. Inflation and price instability are viewed as undercutting effective planning, savings and investment, and consumer confi- dence. Similarly, erratic and sluggish market demand is seen as leading to underutilization of capital and labor, as well as discouragement of business confidence to expand and modernize. It is generally agreed that the economic instability and pessimism discourage optional use of existing productive re- sources. Obsolete and Inappropriate Technology. Some claim that the development and application of new technologies has become inadequate. It is suggested 160 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 that declining expenditures on basic and applied research 4re causing the Amer- ican economy to be noncompetitive with other industrial nations. Others suggest that the American industrial system has been too slow to assimilate critical technological innovations. Inadequate Investment. It has also been claimed that high interest rates resulting from public deficits, high debt loads, and the instability of international loans have curtailed investment in industrial modernization, postponed replace- ment of obsolete and worn-out machinery, and allowed the basic economic infrastructure (roads, utilities, etc.) to degenerate. Others suggest that existing capital investments have not been directed to the most productive areas. Indequate Organization and Utilization of Human Resources. There have been varied claims that human resources at both the managerial and line-em- ployee levels have not been effectively utilized. Some focus on the supply and skill levels of workers, suggesting that workers are ill-trained for existing jobs, that work habits and motivation are poor, and that labor costs price workers out of jobs. Others argue that employees have been ineffectively utilized by management and that managerial decisions have been suboptimal. Specifically, there are claims that employees are ineffectively placed in jobs and given ineffective incentives, that human resources are wasted through needless un- employment, that little opportunity is provided for retraining and updating skills, that little attention is given to basic industrial operations, and that too much attention has been given to short-range profits. In sum, many opine that the human contribution to economic productivity could be improved. International Competition. It has been increasingly noted that international competition has been capturing large portions of foreign and domestic markets that the United States had previously dominated. Among the reasons for these observations are global industrialization and economic development of previ- ously noncompetitive nations, government subsidization of foreign competitors, noncompetitiveness of American industry, and unfair trade relations. Inaccessibility of Raw Materials. It has been claimed that constraints in the supply of essential raw materials (most particularly energy) caused by natural depletion, institutional barriers, and international trade have caused the economy to function less productively than in the past. Obstruction to Economic Revitalization. A number of factors have been identified that may inhibit the application of more productive economic activ- ities. Foremost among such obstacles is the tendency of labor, management, and communities to resist the de-emphasis or realignment of established eco- nomic sectors. It has been suggested that labor's fear of job and economic loss impedes modernization and the disinvestment needed to shift resources to more promising uses. Additionally, it has been claimed that government regulation, costs of social welfare programs for those without jobs, and general political instability have curtailed the optimal use of economic resources. As suggested above, the empirical existence of many of these alleged problems, as well as their relative importance, must be fully documented and elaborated by detailed discussion and rigorous empirical assessment. Approaching an Economic Development Program The above and other efforts to isolate and define the problems con- fronting the economy suggest important considerations for those seeking to develop economic development policies. Regardless of one's views concerning specific problems areas, there can be little doubt that today's economic difficulties have their roots in multifaceted causes. While spe- cialized efforts must be made to attack specific problem areas, it is critical 161 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 that those concerned with economic policy develop and maintain an aware- ness of the interrelated nature of the task they are undertaking. Given the severity of today's economic downturn, extraordinary efforts must be made to facilitate communication among those working on specialized areas and to create forums that foster broad problem-solving dialogue to build com- mon understanding of problems and encourage integrated solutions. The task of moving from a reasonably common agreement about eco- nomic problems to programs and policies is no simple matter. While there is a clear and critical need for new ideas, the problem does not lie solely with a lack of proposals. It also stems from the complexity of existing proposals, lack of effective elaboration of proposals, misunderstanding of proposals and their likely impacts, and failure to effectively negotiate resolutions to conflicting interests. Notes 1. Howard Bowen and Garth Mangum (editors), Automation and Economic Prog- ress, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1966; Norbert Wiener, The Human Use of Human Beings, Avon Books, New York, 1950; and Walter Buckingham, Automation: Its Impact on Business and People, Mentor Books, New York, 1961. 2. "The Computer Moves In," Time, January 3, 1983, page 14. 3. "The Speedup in Automation," Business Week, August 3, 1981, page 60. 4. The Impacts of Robotics on the Workplace and Workforce, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, June 14, 1981. 5. Thomas Gunn, "The Mechanization of Design and Manufacturing," Scientific American, September 1982, pages 114-131. , 6. One source reports that the use of CAD/CAM by Westinghouse resulted in a 25% reduction in manufacturing lead-time and a 400% increase in productivity ("The Speedup in Automation," op. cit., page 60). 7. "High Technology and the California Workforce in the 1980's," California Technological Future: Emerging Economic Opportunities in the 1980' s, California Department of Economic and Business Development, Sacramento, March 1982. 8. "The Computer Moves In," op. cit., page 14. 9. Greggory Blundell, "Personal Computers in the Eighties," Byte, January 1983, page 168. 10. "Project Summary," California's Technological Future: Emerging Economic Opportunities in the 1980's, California Department of Economic and Business De- velopment, Sacramento, March 1982. 11. Michael Kieschnick, "The Incipient California Industrial Policy," Office of Economic and Business Research, Department of Economic and Business Develop- ment, San Francisco, California, January 6, 1982. 12. Colin Norman, Microelectronics at Work: Productivity and Jobs in the World Economy, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C., October 1980, pages 22-29. 13. Four studies of specific high-technology industries were contracted: Richard Osborn, Barbara Wachsman, Anne Markusen, and Peter Hall, Computer Services: The People Behind the Machines, August 1982; Elisabeth O'Malley and Marshall Feldman, Biotechnology: The Next Green Revolution, August 1982; Richard Dorf, Robotics and Computer-Aided Manufacturing/Design, August 1982; and Eugene Coyle and James Hawley, Photovoltaics: Technology for Energy Independence, August 1982. 14. Winning Technology: A New Industrial Strategy for California and the Nation, Final Report, California Commission on Industrial Innovation, Office of the Governor, Sacramento, California (Executive Summary Released September 1982 and Detailed Report Released October 1982). 162 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Incentives and Motivation Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Autonomy, Control, and the Office of the Future: Personal and Social Implications by Don Mankin The key to understanding the potential impact of the office of the future is recognition of the essential duality of the technology itself. That is, the inherent nature of the technology makes possible a wide range of alter- natives and designs. On the one hand, it is possible to use the technology to monitor job performance; increase managerial control over/workers; subdivide and standardize jobs; regulate work schedules, location, and pace; and remove the most challenging and interesting aspects from many jobs by substituting computer routines for employee decisions and judg- ments. By now, most of us are familiar with such applications of computer technology in the work of secretaries in word-processing pools and order entry clerks in large commercial enterprises. In effect, these applications are information-age manifestations of industrial-age ideas about the most effective ways to organize work; they are F.W. Taylor's principles of Scientific Management and Henry Ford's assembly line dressed up in the new technology but exhibiting essentially the same ideas, values, ele- ments, and substances?with the same dehumanizing consequences. Other applications, designs, and forms are possible, however. The na- ture of industrial-age organizations reflected in part the need to "bring people together around a central energy source that fueled the means of production," Shoshana Zuboff of the Harvard Business School points out. They had to interact with various linked and frequently large and cum- bersome production machineries, and to coordinate their activities in real time with the energy source, machinery, and each other. Since electronic information technology does not require work to be collective and syn- chronous, organizations employing this technology are less dependent on the location, scheduling, and pacing of inflexible machinery and nondis- tributable energy sources. Furthermore, since the substance of "computer- mediated work" (to use Zuboff's words) is symbolic and abstract (in- formation) rather than physical (raw materials and products), this substance can be easily manipulated and transformed as long as the software nec- Don Mankin is a research consultant with the Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California. He is also the director of a U.S. Department of Education grant to develop undergraduate and graduate programs in information resources management for An- tioch University campuses nationwide. 165 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 essary for these operations is readily available. As a result, more flexibility and employee control is possible in the execution of the job tasks than is possible in the rigidly structured and machine-defined tasks found in most manufacturing industries. Furthermore, the implementation of this tech- nology and the design of the organizational context can support and extend this flexibility and control considerably. Involving users in the imple- mentation planning process, developing training programs that show em- ployees how to use the systems to aid them in their work, designing systems that are user-programmable and modifiable, and relaxing orga- nizational policy concerning work hours and location are just a few of the ways in which implementation decisions and organizational policy can contribute to the flexibility and discretion of computer-mediated work. To conclude, it is clear that automated office technology need not shape jobs and organizations in predetermined ways. How the technology is used, implemented, and supported, and therefore its impact on workers and society, depends as much on management ideology as on the tech- nology itself. The same technology that can be employed to control, monitor, and deskill work can also be used to facilitate creativity, initia- tive, flexibility, variety, and employee self-management. In effect, the technology?and the work processes in which the technology is em- ployed?can be used to increase the degree of control, discretion, and autonomy that workers exercise and experience in their jobs. The principal hypothesis of this paper, then, is that this autonomy and control, in turn, could have personal and social implications that go well beyond their already well-documented impact on work performance and job satisfac- tion. Computer-Mediated Work and Stress Mental and physical health is one of these implications. Control has long been implicated as a moderating factor in the relationship between aversive conditions and health. While stress research has often focused on the sense of or locus of control as a property of the individual, a growing body of research on work-related stress has begun to examine control as a characteristic of the job. For example, in a series of studies using a representative sample of the male Swedish labor force, workers whose jobs were characterized by heavy work loads and low control over their work situations were most inclined to exhibit symptoms of depres- sion, excessive fatigue, cardiovascular disease, and mortality. The workers with the lowest probability of illness and death were those with moderate work loads combined with high levels of control over the work situations. In another series of experiments, also conducted in Sweden, catecholamine excretion?a neuroendocrine stress response?was highest for workers whose jobs were highly repetitious and machine-paced. A study conducted in the United States by a research team at the University of Michigan also suggests an ameliorating impact of autonomy on stress. On the basis of this and related studies, Robert Kahn, an or- ganizational psychologist at the University of Michigan, recommends an organizational change strategy for alleviating job-related stress that in- 166 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 creases the extent to which employees "participate in the decisions that affect them. . . and the extent to which they are autonomous or controlling in their own work." If it is truly the case that work autonomy can moderate job-related stress, as this research strongly suggests, then automated office systems designed to increase the degree of control that employees have over the scheduling, location, pacing, and nature of their work should lower the psychological stresses they experience in their jobs and the physical problems typically associated with long-term exposure to such stresses. Implications for Social and Political Participation The office of the future also has implications for social and political participation. These potential consequences emerge from a tradition of research that focuses on work as an instrument of social learning. Much of the early research on this topic tried to account for the apparent lack of interest exhibited by many workers?particularly urban blue-collar workers?in work that was challenging and discretionary. The explanation typically offered was that these attitudes were at least partly a function of job experiences that had created the expectation that such opportunities were generally not available to them. Even when challenging and auton- omous work was available, many workers would view these jobs with suspicion, treating them as a ruse by management for increasing their job responsibilities without commensurate increases in job level and pay. Or they would assume that they lacked the job and decision-making skills necessary for effective performance. These attitudes, the argument con- tinues, were further reinforced by workers' perceptions of the job expe- riences of their parents, peers, and others with similar socio-economic and educational backgrounds. This learned passivity would spill over into such areas of their nonwork lives as leisure, family life, and community and political activities. This argument leads in turn to the corollary that a way to decrease passivity and apathy is to gradually introduce acceptable and manageable increments of control and discretion into the jobs of those for whom little opportunity for control has previously existed. Not only would they learn step-by-step to exercise responsibility, discretion, and control in their jobs but they would seek out additional opportunities to exercise these newly developed skills in their jobs and in their nonwork lives as well?just as fit, coordinated, and well-toned athletes seek out activities that exercise and test their physical capabilities. Probably the most thorough and explicit presentation of this thesis can be found in the writings of political scientist Carole Pateman, particularly in her book Participation and Democratic Theory (1970). Pateman argues that hierarchical, nondemocratic organizational structures socialize work- ers into passivity and political apathy, which is reflected in their poor turnout for elections, low levels of community service, and reluctance to participate in voluntary organizations and union, community, and political activities. If workplace authority structures were redesigned along dem- ocratic lines, workers would develop a heightened sense of political ef- 167 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 ficacy and, therefore, take a more active and participatory role in the political processes in the larger society. In Pateman's words: "We learn to participate by participating and . . . feelings of political efficacy are more likely to be developed in a participating environment." Modest support for Pateman's thesis can be found in a recently published article by Maxwell Elden of the Norwegian Technical University (1981). In the research reported in this article, Elden collected data from a newly- built, highly automated manufacturing plant. The plant differed from older, more traditionally structured plants owned by the same company in its use of semi-autonomous, self-managed work groups. Using a question- naire distributed to all the employees, Elden found a small but statistically significant correlation between self-management opportunities and a sense of political efficacy. Additional support for Pateman's theory comes from one of the Swedish studies mentioned in the earlier discussion of job stress. In this study, conducted by Robert Karasek of Columbia University, a nationally rep- resentative sample of employed males between the ages of 18 and 60 were interviewed in 1968 and later in 1974. Those workers whose jobs had become more "passive" also became more passive in their political and leisure activity while those with more active jobs became more active outside of their work. In discussing his own research, Karasek's study, and several other similar investigations, Elden concludes that "empirical evidence which has become available since [Pateman's book] validates her contention that a democratically designed work environment induces the development of the type of political resources necessary for partici- pation in and beyond the workplace." What is the relevance of this conclusion to the subject of office auto- mation? First, as argued earlier, office automation systems can be designed to provide employees with substantially increased control over the sched- uling, location, pacing, and nature of their job tasks. While workplace democracy is frequently interpreted in terms of employee participation in organizational decision-making, either directly or indirectly through elected representatives, it can and often does include "democracy" at the level of the workplace or the individual job. Indeed, most of the research indicates that, of the two approaches?higher and lower level participa- tion?the most effective strategy is to enhance worker control over their immediate job tasks and work environment. (These are generally com- patible strategies in any case and should ideally be implemented at the same time so as to reinforce each other). Therefore, by giving workers control over the job conditions and context they actually experience throughout the day, office automation systems could have an immediate and profound impact on the development of participatory skills and atti- tudes. Second, following Pateman's theory on the socializing influence of democratic job structures, workers exposed to autonomy-enhancing office automation designs would have the skills and be more inclined to partic- ipate actively in such nonwork activities as community affairs, public service, political lobbying, and voting. 168 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Finally, since an increasing amount of research and organizational ex- perience points to the important role of employee participation in orga- nizational effectiveness, autonomy-enhancing approaches to office automation should gain increased favor. As these approaches proliferate, office automation could become a major factor in the development of a society where a majority of the citizenry regularly and actively participates in the processes by which organizations, communities, and nations are governed?that is, if Pateman is indeed correct about the relationship between workplace democracy and political efficacy and participation. Fulfilling the democratic ideal requires not only the opportunity for par- ticipation but a populace with the motivation and skills necessary for the effective use of this opportunity. As Elden notes; "Work democracy seems to be one way of creating an enduring propensity to participate in political affairs." And one way to create work democracy?a way that would be acceptable to managers as well as workers because of its impact on pro- ductivity and efficiency?is to implement designs for office information technology that support and liberate human function rather than constrain and control it. Before concluding, I would like to inject a brief note of caution into the rosy picture of this technological utopia. We need to consider what, if any, negative consequences might arise from a society of active, au- tonomous citizens willing and able to participate in the political process for the purpose of influencing policy decisions and issues. Specifically, there is no guarantee that these citizens, with their recently developed skills and sense of efficacy organized into groups with competing interests, will agree on important decisions or even agree to compromise with other groups equally skillful and confident of their political potency but holding differing values and opinions. The result, as Daniel Bell notes in The Coming of Post-Industrial Society (1976), may lead to a seriously con- straining paradox: The greater the number of groups, each seeking diverse or competing ends, the more likelihood that these groups will veto one another's interests, with the consequent sense of frustration and powerlessness as such stalemates incur. . . . Thus the problem of how to achieve consensus on political questions will become more difficult. Without consensus there is only conflict, and persistent conflict simply tears a society apart, leaving the way open to repression by one sizeable force or another. The "zero-sum society," to use Lester Thurow's expression, could aggravate the problem as competing groups make increasingly contentious demands for a larger slice of a pie that may no longer grow as rapidly as it has in the past. This need not be a reason for resisting the implementation of autonomy- enhancing office automation systems. Compensating policies and mech- anisms can be developed: in particular, better means for resolving conflict among competing public interests and policies for expanding the "pie" so that everyone's slices can grow larger. Perhaps, the very existence of more challenging and autonomous work itself would lessen demand for certain forms of satisfaction outside of work. 169 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 But within the contents of this paper we can do little more than just raise the issues. These issues, along with further study of the ones dis- cussed here and several that have not been addressed, comprise a research and policy agenda that needs to be examined before the revolution in office automation renders these issues faits accomplis in a manner little to our liking. 170 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Tomorrow's Technical/ Communications Labor Force by Arthur B. Shostak Dramatic and rapid advances in modern work practices promise to vastly increase the number and significance of a new type of nonsupervisory employee?the "hands-on" operators of large centralized computer work- stations. Typified by panel watchers in chemical plants, oil refineries, nuclear power plants, TV and recording studios, and stock brokerage operations, among others, this new kind of American worker may hold the most responsible, the most stressful, and the best paid jobs in the non- college-educated labor force of the next 25 years. Special insight into the problems and prospects of these distinctive data processors has been offered by the demands and fate of the U.S. air traffic controllers' union, the Professional Air Traffic Controller's Organization (PATCO). Conventional wisdom had it that the highly sophisticated work of the controllers, performed in modern settings and reliant on elaborate computer technologies, should have presented few, if any, labor problems. A bitter strike, and the ensuing dismissal of 11,400 controllers, however, revealed otherwise, and work experts have since concluded that "the demands being made by the controllers are the kind of demands that can be expected from workers in other sectors of the economy that depend on advanced technologies."' If we are to maximize the gains in work that advances in communications make increasingly possible, it is imperative that we improve the manage- ment of our workplace human resources?and begin by learning from present-day mistakes. The controllers' strike, for example, marked perhaps the first time in history that American workers, in effect, "gave up their jobs because they had been mismanaged."2 Another specialist warns that the controllers' demand for relief from excessive workplace stress will be raised over and over again by similar occupational types ("Stress is the black lung of the technical classes.").3 And a third commentator insists that the controllers' demand for better equipment to ensure safer air travel foreshadows many similar pleas from other conscientious employees: The Arthur B. Shostak is a professor of sociology at Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. A founding member of both the World Future Society and its Phila- delphia chapter, he is the author of 12 books and nearly 100 articles on social issues. 171 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 rapid automation of industry is thought likely to generate new controller- like jobs responsible for the safety of whole factories or offices and their contents?material and human.4 Supervisory malpractices, the prevalence of debilitating job stress, and doubts concerning equipment with which to ensure the safety of "souls" (or passengers in the aircraft being "handled" by the controllers) are harbingers of labor discontent likely wherever this new breed of controller and controller-like worker is brought into being.5 PATCO's strike, ac- cordingly, can be understood as a historic milestone?the first major rebellion of nonprofessional workers against hardships in the technological shift from producing things to controlling information. If we intend to reduce the pressure for many more such upheavals, we must attend to the reform lessons contained in PATCO's noble, if ill-fated, stand. PATCO Strike "Lessons" Drawing on my two years of involvement as a survey researcher for the union, and on lengthy discussions of work issues I have held with controllers at the O'Hare Tower (the world's busiest), on the Philadelphia airport PATCO picket line, and at union headquarters in Washington, I want to highlight seven guidelines I draw from controller discontents that might help improve the work and worklives of controller-like employees. First, technical workers with jobs like those of air traffic controllers are likely to desire and prosper from collegial rather than authori- tarian approaches to supervision. This type of worker seems to have a keen need for sensitive support from supervisors when inevitable human errors occur. They appreciate supervisory praise when inevitable crises at work earn an extraordinary response. And they expect an honest and constructive effort from supervisors in the performance-appraisal process. Controllers, and other data communicators like them, apparently do their best when the workstation feels chummy and collaborative: little wonder that an outside expert insists that "on the face of it, the [tower] should be the ideal location for quality of worklife experiments."6 Second, technical workers with jobs like those of the air traffic controllers may need to create a workplace culture that deliberately alleviates inordinate stress. For example: ? During their eight-hour shift, a controller rotates through several positions (clearance delivery, ground control, flight plans data, helicopter control, second approach control, etc.). ? When a controller is having a bad day, others will discreetly "carry" him, as by extending their time in the hot spot to reduce the time he must spend in it. ? Every controller is given leeway, and even covert support, to create maintain, and enhance a distinctive style of "working traffic" (as with using one's hands like a traffic cop, even though pilots cannot see this; or, mimicking the accent of different pilots; or, occasionally substituting CB jargon for more common air-control language). Confronting a work flow largely outside of their command, and chal- lenged by rapid changes in the character of work (as with weather reversals or emergency landing demands), air traffic controllers, and other data 172 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 communicators like them, apparently require considerable latitude to alter the culture at work. Third, technical workers with jobs like those of the controllers are likely to spotlight mental health, rather than yesteryear's physical health concerns. In contrast to grimy and sooty factories, the computer communicators work in soaring, antiseptic, climate-controlled "cabs," and their discontent focuses away from traditional rage over the absence of a clean place to sit down in the average mill, warehouse, or assembly plant. Instead, the controllers are preoccupied with the strain the job puts on their minds, moods, marriages, and general mental well-being. Many think the chronic anxiety, ulcers, high blood pressure, sleeplessness, night- mares, and impotence to be more of a toll than the job ever need entail? and they especially resent management's reluctance to admit or to deal with this situation. Accordingly, to extrapolate cautiously from the situ- ation of the controllers, their counterparts in the work force of tomorrow can be expected to push the dialogue on a relatively new issue about which labor and management must reach an accord?the entitlement an employee has to the reduction of negative (and counter-productive) stress at (and from) work. Fourth, technical workers may desire a larger say than other non- professionals in items commonly and erroneously thought to concern only well-educated professional types. Controllers, for example, are eager to help guide management in making crucial decisions about up- dating safety rules, the better to reduce fraud and hypocrisy in the matter (". . . regulations are violated every day, day in and day out, in order to handle the volume of planes we have to handle.").7 As well, controllers are understandably concerned about the quality of the basic equipment ("The computer-radar combination is subject to far too frequent failure . . . . Working the system is like, as a surgeon, having to perform delicate operation after delicate operation knowing the operating room lights could, and probably will, go out any time. Under conditions like that, a few seconds in the dark can be a lifetime.").8 Accordingly, many controllers have technical notions about how to improve the hardware and software of their trade, though most have long since come to despair of gaining a fair and encouraging hearing from management. Be that as it may, air traffic controllers, and other data communicators like them, may be looked to as an eager source of pro- ductivity-aiding insights?a source, however, that can go sour if denied. Fifth, technical workers may challenge many prevailing notions about the significance of time at work. Controllers insist that the sus- tained nature of mental stress in their computer-driven jobs makes a shorter workweek (32 hours) a necessary prop for productivity and client safety. As well, they point to their 80% "burnout" rate, or the fact that four out of five go out on disability before reaching the retirement minimum, as evidence of the need to reduce the length of time required to qualify one for retirement (15 instead of 20 years). Above all, however, they rail against the casual insistence by management on an "insane" rotating shift schedule (". . . one of the greatest hazards to the flying public is the schedule we have to work.").9 Accordingly, data communicators with 173 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 controller-like jobs can be expected to pressure employers for shorter hours, shorter retirement-qualifying terms, and far more leeway to say "no" to rotating shift schedules that wreak havoc with family life and personal fitness. Sixth, controllers and similar others insist they are worth much more than they are presently being paid, and they fully intend to win more! Confusion and controversy abound in the matter, since these em- ployees reject comparison of their earnings with others who also lack a college education or are also as young (most controllers are not college graduates, and 80% are under 36). Instead, they contend that their dis- tinctive job requirements (mental alertness, stamina, quickness, decisive- ness) and their demanding job responsibilities (close teamwork, solo order- giving, extraordinary life-and-death decision-making) set them quite apart from other classes of workers. Consistent with this, PATCO respondents in each of four attitude sur- veys conducted over 18 months before the strike ranked "salary increase" their foremost demand (with "shorter hours" and "earlier retirement" a close second and distant third). The rank-and-file also used the surveys to register strong resentment over having their compensation levels de- termined by an impersonal and removed Civil Service system. Computer- aided controller-like workers, in short, can be expected to press increas- ingly for substantial salary,,and fringe benefit gains consistent with their self-image as a fairly unique cadre of hard-working, larger-than-life "com- municators." Seventh, controller-like workers are likely to appreciate the indis- pensability of collective bargaining protection, the 1982 demise of PATCO to the contrary and notwithstanding. "Computer technology creates the false illusion that problems with the workplace are over," a student of technological change explains, adding that, "the controllers were exhibiting old attitudes, the attitudes of coal miners."10 Prime among such proud and self-assertive attitudes was strong re- sentment against unwarranted irritants (PATCO's 1976 contract finally compelled management to relax its IBM-like dress code for controllers). The union had fought to humanize work rules (PATCO forced management to agree not to change a controller's day off only hours before it was to begin). The union had also moved to protect controllers who feared man- agement retribution in the event of a human error (". . . a major source of stress is the fear that in the event of a crash the FAA will do whatever it feels it can get away with to 'hang' the controller with responsibility for the accident.")" Above all, the union compelled management to reckon with a formal grievance procedure, one that provided the 85% of all controllers who voluntarily joined PATCO with trained representation at every level of the process, high-powered legal counsel, and an inva- luable sense of countervailing power. Little wonder, then, that when I surveyed PATCO members shortly before their strike, they expressed ringing confidence in Organized Labor, outdoing every demographic category in the most recent (1979) Gallup national poll in this matter. As some 42% had made use of the PATCO grievance process, it was 174 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 not surprising to find that 80% felt the union's problems were also his or her own problems, and that 93% believed most PATCO members preferred to be represented by a union. Where labor militancy was concerned, these white-collar technical workers were not shy: although only 20% had had any previous experience as a unionist, and only 15% had ever walked a picket line before, the vast majority approved of allowing public employees like themselves to strike (84% voted "yes" where teachers were concerned; 81% approved in the case of postmen; 68%, firemen; 68%, policemen). Above all, 84% af- firmed their intention of supporting a properly sanctioned PATCO strike, a vote of co-worker solidarity that the White House was mistakenly led to believe did not exist. Air traffic controllers, and other data communicators like them, should be regarded as employees skeptical of management's good intentions, and inclined instead to meet power with power. Given the intransigence of abusive managerial ways?as revealed in the insistence of nonstriking controllers six months after PATCO's decertification that management attitudes remain "centralized, rigid, and insensitive"12? reason exists to suspect more, rather than less, union organizing and labor militancy from tomorrow's growing numbers of technical workers. Summary Critics have branded the 11,500 controllers dismissed by President Reagan as "irreverent malcontents," 13 while admirers insist that PATCO' s strike forced management to significantly improve work practices (as in increasing the staffing of the towers and requiring more spacing between flights). Critics second-guess whether non-strike tactics like a "rulebook" slowdown might have sufficed, while PATCO supporters remind all that federal employees have struck the government in 20 earlier labor disputes, even as they take quiet pride in judging theirs the "most monumental job action ever directed at the Federal Government.,,14 Controversy here will persist, of course, for as long as the supervision of human beings remains a critical art form in increasingly automated workplaces. It already seems clear, however, that controller-like employ- ees stand apart in the challenge they pose to any post-industrial scenario of preference: These technical employees are likely to insist on sharing the managerial decision-making process. They want to directly profit from experience-gained insights into how to do the job better. They mean to reduce negative stressors and protect their quality of life on and off the job. They intend to earn more for their labor, and, as a form of insurance that all these objectives will be met, they prefer to stand together as trade unionists and not rely instead only or especially on enlightened personnel relations. While middle-class in level of earnings and middle-of-the-road politics, and while white-collar-like in job content and work setting, this new kind of worker is potentially more assertive and militant than commonly un- derstood by outsiders. Operating large centralized computer workstations, they are steadily coming to realize the exceptional power they command? and its very real limitations (as in the ability of FAA supervisors to step 175 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 down and help operate a scaled-back system after PATCO had struck). As well, technical employees of this sort live with nagging insecurity about technological displacement (as with the FAA's new 20-year plan to modernize the aging air traffic control system and have one controller soon do what three or four do at present).15 Not surprisingly, therefore, these workers remain a volatile and prob- lematic element of the changing labor force?strong in their six-point agenda of workplace reforms, yet weak in their recognized vulnerability to "technological scabbing" and technological displacement. Especially well-satisfied when their jobs are going strong, the commitment of these workers to the work ethic could not be greater. Accordingly, as the po- tential vanguard of exactly the high-quality, high-contribution labor force that the U.S. requires, controller-like technical workers merit a much fairer, calmer, and far more constructive hearing than PATCO ever re- ceived?if we intend to salvage vital lessons of value from the nation's first workplace rebellion of tomorrow's communication "controllers." Notes I. Serrin, William, "Controller Called Typical of New Breed of Worker." New York Times, August 16, 1981, p. 38. 2. Shrank, Robert, formerly of the Ford Foundation, as quoted in ibid. 3. Aronowitz, Stanley, a labor activist, writer, and teacher (Columbia University), as quoted in ibid. 4. Helpful in making this point clear is Raben, Joseph, "Toward a Nation of Controllers." New York Times, September 27, 1981, p. 18-E. 5. Weil, Henry, "Those Ultracool, Death-Defying Air Traffic Controllers." Cos- mopolitan, May 1976, p. 259. 6. Lawler, Edward J., professor of organizational behavior at the University of Southern California, as quoted in Serrin, New York Times, op. cit. 7. Rose, Sam, controller, as quoted in Biggs, Don, Pressure Cooker. New York: W.W. Norton, 1979, p. 136. 8. Biggs, ibid., p. 189. 9. McCloskey, Will, controller, as quoted in ibid., p. 152. 10. Shaiken, Harley, an MIT research associate specializing in advanced tech- nologies, as quoted in Serrin, New York Times, op. cit. 11. Biggs, Pressure Cooker, op. cit., p. 226. 12. Jones, L. M., et al., Management and Employee Relationships Within the Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, D.C.: FAA, March, 1982, pp. 41, 67- 69. 13. "One of the saddest parts of this tragedy is that a group of people whom I know to be decent and generous will forever be branded as irreverent malcontents." Poli, Robert E., "Why the Controllers' Strike Failed," New York Times, January 17,1982, p. E-1. Poli was the PATCO president who led the strike, and resigned in January 1982. 14. "A judgment advanced in a forthcoming book by two PATCO members, Gary Greene and Tom Holliday, entitled Strike: The PATCO Nightmare; as reported on in Flightline Times, June 30, 1982, p. 1. 15. Witkin, Richard, "Revamping of Air Control System in Next 20 Years Pro- posed by U.S.," New York Times, January 29, 1982, p. I. 176 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Industrial Democracy by Edward Cohen-Rosenthal Workplaces can become more democratic. In fact, the growth of in- dustrial democracy in all Western industrialized countries is practically inevitable. The term industrial democracy has a wide variety of meanings and applications. On a limited scale, it can mean a somewhat restricted socio-technical tinkering with existing industrial-relations structures. In Europe, this approach is represented by a new coterie of worker-directors who sit on corporate boards. In the U.S., it is found in expanding programs geared toward greater sensitivity to the opinions of workers and job en- largement. However, industrial democracy can mean a new way of structuring production and power in a post-industrial world, which transfers much greater influence and responsibility to workers and their unions. This is far more than the nominal power of boards or sophisticated suggestion boxes, but rather the infinite power of pooled human purpose. In another vein, industrial democracy can lead to greater economic democracy for citizens to be able to voice their concerns on the direction of corporate activity. Workplace democracy can establish a new relationship between sources and production that attends greater thought to both the conse- quences and means of production. The future surely bears increasing numbers of companies and unions experimenting with shop-floor workers' and union leaders' participation in issues previously reserved as exclusively management prerogatives. These include such areas as work pace, hiring and firing, training design, occupational safety and health, equipment engineering, and purchasing. In some countries, there is worker involvement in considering long-range investment policy, marketing, plant closures, product selection, plant ex- pansion, and social accounting. These new patterns of work are presently manifesting themselves in many Western European countries and Japan. Both in board representation and shop-floor experiments, serious discussions of proposals are presently under way in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Australia. In the United States, there has been a marked increase in experimentation with participatory management. Flavored by their own cultural and political backgrounds, there are variations on the theme under way in Yugoslavia and Israel and in many developing countries, including Tanzania and India. In Sweden, the old notion of man as "human capital" or man as solely the merchant of his labor has been replaced by the idea of man as a social being whose rights extend into the workplace. To many Swedes, industrial Edward Cohen-Rosenthal is president of ECR Associates, Laytonsville, Maryland. This paper is drawn from a longer unpublished manuscript. 177 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 democracy represents a way to generate justice in the workplace. They perceive it as an evolution improved from expansive and expensive social welfare approaches. Industrial democracy places responsibility squarely where it belongs: on the shoulders of all of the people concerned, not just an elite managerial corps. One's humanity does not stop at the factory gate. One's brain is not disengaged as the office door is closed. There has to be a better way to work. Endless laws can only attempt to prevent gross abuses. But creativity and commitment do not come by laws?even good laws. The nature of relationships at work does not conform neatly to legal formulations. This new way of working is much less encumbering, therefore more responsive and effective. Worldwide, the demand for improved occupational health and safety has assumed an unprecedented position of importance. In a study released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the topic of greatest interest to workers for participation in decisions was safety and health. Seventy-six percent of workers think they should have all or some say. (See chart Decisions in the Workplace.) Decisions in the Workplace Workers sometimes have a say in decisions at their workplace, even though they are not supervisors or managers. How much say do you think workers should have about ? ? ? Type of Decision Percentage Base Complete A lot Some No say say of say say at all Safety of equipment and prac- tices 2256 13.3% 62.5% 22.8% 1.3% How the work is done 2254 4.8 36.0 55.1 4.1 The wages and salaries paid 2235 3.6 26.8 58.9 10.7 The particular days and hours people work 2245 2.7 16.7 50.2 22.4 Hiring or layoffs 2224 2.6 13.0 45.1 39.4 Source: Robert P. Quinn and Graham L. Staines, The 1977 Quality of Employment Survey, Survey Research Cen- ter, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1979, p. 178. The present critical importance of industrial health is but a forerunner of other demands on the workplace to put people first. The next decade will probably plot an interesting future for the growth of industrial democracy. Efforts utilizing worker participation will slowly gain ground in the next five years. There is a rising accumulation of experience in this field. Projects have been under way at such corporate giants as General Motors, U.S. Steel, Exxon, Weyerhaeuser, and General Foods. Unions such as the United Auto Workers, the International Wood- workers, the United Steelworkers, the Oil, Chemical, and Atomic Workers Union, the International Association of Machinists, and the Communi- cations Workers of America have jointly engaged in projects. In over eight cities such as San Diego, California, and Columbus, Ohio, and in several hospitals, experiments have been conducted in the public sector. That 178 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 every state in the nation and over 130 different national unions are involved in some way is documented by reports of the National Center for Pro- ductivity and Quality of Work Life.' They are not all successful, but they provide a base for learning even if they don't last. There is a growing documentation that these new ways to work are not only more in tune with the people in them but are more successful economic units. However, in the 1985-1990 period, the number of companies and unions moving in the direction of industrial democracy should expand dramati- cally. A number of factors should coalesce by this period. Emerging worker values fueled by rising levels of education should precipitate new demands from workers. A need for renewed purpose on the part of unions and a drive to organize white-collar and younger employees should thrust expanded participation in workplace decisions to a higher priority. A need for productivity improvement and more than a decade of experimentation should convince many companies to try greater worker participation. When toted up, it yields a prospective boon in the United States for new styles of decision-making. In a modest way, the current phenomenal growth of quality circles is evidence of this. The joining of new values, demographic trends, and economic necessity is fortuitous for steps in the direction of industrial democracy. The likelihood of greater participation by workers in the future has been noted and written about by numerous commentators. One of the best glimpses at this future is provided by James G. Affleck, chairman of the board of the American Cyanamid Company, who writes: The future of management is "non-management." It will be the development and utilization of people organized to employ all their individual and creative talents to the maximum, within an environment of continuous and dynamic change. The rigid and highly structured organizational framework of the past will be replaced by a cohesive interdependence of thought and action, perhaps without conscious direction or apparent leadership as we have understood it. Management's main job will be to exercise sensitivity and an educated intuition to draw the maximum from a highly skilled and intellectually sophisticated force of managers and workers. . . Up to now organizational structures have served to treat people as surrogate machines, or to replace them with machines wherever possible in the name of efficiency. In the future, we as managers will have to develop new attitudes and practices if we are to lead the men and women of the last quarter of the twentieth century and give them the kind of rewarding and fulfilling work experience they are being conditioned to expect. We are going to have to employ people as people, taking into account all of the interests, habits, attitudes, and learned skills which when properly exercised lead the human being to new heights of individual and collective achievement. We are going to have to employ 100 percent of the individual, not the 20 or 50 percent which may fit the current job description.2 The critical role of trade unions in industrial democracy should be discussed. In most European countries, it is the unions who are the most active proponents of further efforts for industrial democracy. In the United States, some unions look warily at work reorganization efforts; in them, they often see management gimmicks, more responsibility with no increase 179 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 in compensation, and weakening of the contract. With real justification, some unions see workers' participation as undermining efforts for wider unionization. After all, collective bargaining is in itself a basic model for democratic participation in the workplace. The union is not an abstract institution but a reality where workers elect their representatives and ratify their contracts. A union is an instrument for workers' expression and protection. Encouragingly, an increasing number of labor leaders are view- ing quality-of-work-life efforts as a way to extend previously won benefits while maintaining the security of the contract. More and more are involved in various labor-management committees and in worker-participation proj- ects. Their motivation is caused not only by an ideological attachment to human dignity and democracy but also by many of the same pressures that are forcing companies to explore new 'styles of participation. These pressures are exerted in the form of the broadened concerns of primarily the younger membership for good wages and benefits and an improved quality of working life. They want both. Unions are squeezed by inter- national and regional competition, by lower wage markets or higher pro- ductivity growth thereby threatening jobs and the hard-fought gains in their standard of living. Declining or stagnant union membership as a percentage of the labor force calls for bold action in organizing the service sector and other workers eager for more meaningful participation in the processes of work. Worker participation could be the demand of the eighties and nineties. Irving Bluestone, retired vice president of the United Auto Workers, has written about emerging trends in worker participation: Participation by workers in decisions involving management of the job is fun- damental to the fulfillment of the ultimate goal of achieving industrial democ- racy. It seems inevitable that workers will demand increasingly to be part of the decision-making process, particularly with regard to those aspects of work- life which are of most immediate importance to them in the performance of their job. In a real sense the trend toward worker participation in decision- making is an extension of the democratic values into the workplace which the worker enjoys as a citizen in society.3 Non-union employers are increasingly using these kinds of participative programs. For some, it is a genuine concern for inclusion. However, some employers are trying to develop these programs to demonstrate that unions are unnecessary. Their programs are often sophisticated versions of com- pany unions. All European experience and much of what has transpired in America shows to the contrary that strong union organization is not only important for the workers on the job to provide collective strength in community, national, and international affairs, but also at the enterprise level in the successful operation of worker participation and productivity improvement. Rather than wither away, unions remain necessary to com- bat management smugness and provide a positive vision of workers' needs. Industrial Democracy and Education In my talks with workers, union officers, and managers in many parts of the world, increased learning is one clear outcome stretching across 180 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 in compensation, and weakening of the contract. With real justification, some unions see workers' participation as undermining efforts for wider unionization. After all, collective bargaining is in itself a basic model for democratic participation in the workplace. The union is not an abstract institution but a reality where workers elect their representatives and ratify their contracts. A union is an instrument for workers' expression and protection. Encouragingly, an increasing number of labor leaders are view- ing quality-of-work-life efforts as a way to extend previously won benefits while maintaining the security of the contract. More and more are involved in various labor-management committees and in worker-participation proj- ects. Their motivation is caused not only by an ideological attachment to human dignity and democracy but also by many of the same pressures that are forcing companies to explore new -styles of participation. These pressures are exerted in the form of the broadened concerns of primarily the younger membership for good wages and benefits and an improved quality of working life. They want both. Unions are squeezed by inter- national and regional competition, by lower wage markets or higher pro- ductivity growth thereby threatening jobs and the hard-fought gains in their standard of living. Declining or stagnant union membership as a percentage of the labor force calls for bold action in organizing the service sector and other workers eager for more meaningful participation in the processes of work. Worker participation could be the demand of the eighties and nineties. Irving Bluestone, retired vice president of the United Auto Workers, has written about emerging trends in worker participation: Participation by workers in decisions involving management of the job is fun- damental to the fulfillment of the ultimate goal of achieving industrial democ- racy. It seems inevitable that workers will demand increasingly to be part of the decision-making process, particularly with regard to those aspects of work- life which are of most immediate importance to them in the performance of their job. In a real sense the trend toward worker participation in decision- making is an extension of the democratic values into the workplace which the worker enjoys as a citizen in society.' Non-union employers are increasingly using these kinds of participative programs. For some, it is a genuine concern for inclusion. However, some employers are trying to develop these programs to demonstrate that unions are unnecessary. Their programs are often sophisticated versions of com- pany unions. All European experience and much of what has transpired in America shows to the contrary that strong union organization is not only important for the workers on the job to provide collective strength in community, national, and international affairs, but also at the enterprise level in the successful operation of worker participation and productivity improvement. Rather than wither away, unions remain necessary to com- bat management smugness and provide a positive vision of workers' needs. Industrial Democracy and Education In my talks with workers, union officers, and managers in many parts of the world, increased learning is one clear outcome stretching across 180 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 the industrial democracy spectrum. An enormous new demand for further learning is released. It stands to reason that this will occur. In represen- tative models of industrial democracy, worker directors and members of work councils dealing with complex issues find that there is much they need to learn to function effectively. Shop-floor participants are brought into contact with areas of knowledge and operation where they previously have had little exposure. Participants not only learn facts and theories but a lot about the people and human dynamics involved. There have been a number of examples of this learning connection. In Europe, both companies and unions have designed education programs for representatives. The classic example in the United States is the in- plant school established by members of the United Auto Workers employed at Harmon International. In this automobile minor plant in Bolivar, Ten- nessee, workers were, on their own initiative, learning a wide variety of subjects from welding to anthropology. In Norway, the educational rede- sign of seafarer's schooling based on the outcomes of participative de- cision-making is another sterling example of new demands on education rising out 01 new demands on the workplace. For most people, real participation is not easy. In order to participate effectively with other people in reaching workable and informed answers to real-life problems within reasonable time limits, workers need to focus on how to do it well. There is a definite need for training in a variety of process skills that assist workers in understanding the techniques of prob- lem-solving, group dynamics, information-gathering, and a range of other process aides that clarify ways to make decisions better. There is also a wide band of content skills, which differs according to the nature of the industry and the idiosyncracies of the work organization. However, some content skills such as an understanding of the history of industrial de- mocracy, the range of alternative work patterns available, and a general understanding of economics would be important for most if not all par- ticipants. The style of worker participation will put new process demands on schools and colleges. Since horizontal work teams cut across occupational titles, workers will expect and want interdisciplinary and problem-centered curricula. Since workers will have more of a say in the operation of their workplaces, they will expect more of a say in the operation of their schools and participation in setting the goals and objectives of their learning ex- periences. The use of new behavorial-science techniques to facilitate par- ticipation in the workplace will make standard lectures as arcane as company pep talks. Though functional on occasion, didactic, one-way communi- cation needs to give way to more interactive approaches to learning. Industrial democracy is an answer to the paradox of advancement through education. Up until recently, more education has been an effective entree to positions of authority and challenge. While expectations of education's payoff remain high, the ability of the existing system to absorb people at either their level of aspiration or their level of talent is dim. A society based on frustration of talent or drive is in a serious predicament. The only real solution is to broaden participation and expand the number of 181 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 "good" jobs. Any attempt to brainwash people into lower expectations or to ignore the problem will fall flat on its face. Industrial democracy is a way to buy out of the mentality of laboriously climbing the hierarchical ladder. Though new types of work will uncover talents that have been previously submerged and better match individuals and jobs, this concept of democracy does not offer a way for individuals to reach "the top" by stepping on the backs of co-workers. Industrial democracy implies a shared growth where success has new definitions. The three issues identified earlier in this essay?cybernetics, democ- racy, and ecology?help to understand the particular direction that new forms of industrial democracy should take. In the workplace, we need to know how to sort out the mountains of data to select important information without ignoring evidence helpful for full understanding. At work, like elsewhere, the more people who participate in decisions, the more infor- mation they in turn create. They then have to wrestle with the frustrating task of coping with even more intimidating mounds of data. In addition, the useful life of data is open to serious question. Things became irrelevant or pass?o quickly. So common that they fail to shock anymore are stories of the obsolescence of knowledge as in the case of engineering students who are out of date by the time they graduate. What is unclear is how the emerging workplace will learn?if at all?to sift and order its wealth of know-how. How will it improve its cybernetic capacity? A true industrial democratic system is a much more intricate animal than formal organizational charts with lines between departments. The difficulty of communication grows with increased complexity. Unfortu- nately, we don't know enough about how to involve large groups of people in effective decision-making. When it does work well, democracy is a powerful social tool. Cooperative decision-making needs to be taught from the earliest years to the end of life. Unless we learn and relearn this skill, increased participation will represent a two-edged sword. On one hand, even good decisions will be rejected unless arrived at in a democratic fashion. On the other, by their very lack of focus, amoebic and anarchistic "democracy" could stifle or divert any effective resolution of problems. Concerning the ecological dimension, we need to encourage holistic decisions at the workplace that give due consideration to the social and environmental ramifications of proposed actions. Workers and managers need to learn better how to broadly frame issues to assess their impacts on social and environmental well-being. Enterprises in France and Scan- dinavia are required by law to prepare a report on corporate impact on the community and their workers. This impact statement is a new field called "social accounting." Another example is found in the United King- dom, where workers at the Lucas Aerospace Company are thinking of more humane ways to employ technology. A Center for Alternative Tech- nology has been established by the Lucas Aerospace Combined Shop Stewards Committee in conjunction with researchers and academics in order to find viable alternatives to the production of military hardware. One of their successful ideas was to bid on a new type of light rail 182 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ICIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 transportation system suitable to Tanzania. In the United States, workers are beginning to realize that, contrary to scare tactics, not only has en- vironmental action failed to cause the promised massive layoffs but in fact more jobs were created. In an age of limited resources and a more intimate "global village," workers need to be able to understand and act on the environmental consequences of their actions. In India, environ- mental protection is one of the locally mandated functions of worker participation councils. Given the opportunity, new ways can be found to save energy and redesign products to suit a new ecological consciousness with the cooperation and imagination of workers?instead of being viewed with distrust as a threat to job security. Welded together, these three concepts help inform a version of industrial democracy that is deeply participatory, keenly informed, and broadly concerned. It is a kind of work experience that can help stimulate more justice inside the workplace, produce better goods and services, and fuse better with expanded notions of leisure and education. Industrial democ- racy is a workstyle for the future. Notes 1. National Center for Productivity and Quality of Working Life, Directory of Labor- Management Committees, Washington, D.C., Spring 1978 2. James G. Affleck, "Constructive Orchestration of Chaos," in Lewis Benton, ed., Management for the Future, McGraw Hill Book Company, New York, 1978, p. 3. 3. Irving Bluestone, "Human Dignity Is What It's All About," Industrial Union Department, AFL-CIO, Viewpoint, Vol. 8, No. 3, Third Quarter 1978, pp. 21-25. 183 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 ? Careers and Work Trends Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Jobs with a Future by Marvin J. Cetron Forecasters, as opposed to other futurists, must use very specific yards- ticks to measure the likelihood of a prediction actually taking place. These yardsticks include technical feasibility, economic feasibility (cost effec- tiveness), social acceptability, and political acceptability. If any of these are not applicable to a projected change, it will not rate a positive forecast. For example, a futurist might look at solar energy and determine that it is the way of the future since it is clean, nonpolluting, and there is an inexhaustible supply. However, in making a forecast about the use of solar energy, even though it is technically feasible and acceptable socially and politically, it will not become economically feasible until the price of oil goes up to $54 per barrel. Therefore, solar energy will not be the way of the future. When applying these tests and measures to occupations, one thing is sure about tomorrow's job markets: major shifts will occur in employment patterns. These changes are going to affect the work force of the future, and are going to precipitate changes in the education and training of both potential and existing workers. Major shifts in the job market do not necessarily mean major changes in the numbers of people employed anywhere inside the job market. What it does mean is that many of the old jobs will disappear?and not just because of robots and computers. Manufacturing of products will consume only 11% of the jobs in the year 2000, down from 28% in 1980. Jobs related to agriculture will drop from 4% to 3%. The turn of the century will find the remaining 86% in the service sector, up from 68% in 1980. Of the service-sector jobs, half will relate to information collection, man- agement, and dissemination. Unemployment will continue to be a problem. If the current recession were to end tomorrow, probably 1.2 million of the more than 11 million unemployed today would never be able to return to their old jobs in the automobile, steel, textile, rubber, or railroad industries. Marvin J. Cetron, a pioneer and expert in the areas of technological forecasting and technological assessment, is president of Forecasting International, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia. This article is adapted from his forthcoming book Jobs with a Future, to be published by McGraw-Hill in January 1984. 187 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 About one-sixth of the 1.2 million jobs will be eliminated by foreign competition in low-wage countries; another one-sixth will disappear be- cause of the nationalization of many major industries in other countries, which results in "dumping" of products on our market, undercutting our prices. "Computamation" (robotics, numerically-controlled equipment, CAD/CAM [computer aided design and computer aided manufacturing], and flexible manufacturing) will assist in the demise of the remaining two- thirds of the jobs eliminated. As this technological transition takes place, productivity will increase. For example, the use of robotics or CAD/CAM in the automotive industry can replace up to six workers if operating around the clock. Quality control increases four-fold, and scrap is reduced from 15% to less than 1%. Japan is already using some of these new jobs and technology. It had no choice. Presently, 96% of its energy is imported. By the year 2000, it will rise to 98%. Eighty-seven percent of all of its resources come from outside the country. These statistics form a base for the decision to go robotic, but the essence of Japan's problem is that, between 1985 and 1990, 20% of the entire work force will retire at 80% of their base pay for the rest of their lives. They were forced to go robotic to remain productive. The United States, too, will be filling many of today's blue- collar jobs with robots. The displaced workers will have to learn the new skills necessary to build and maintain the robots. White-collar workers in the offices of the future will see some dramatic changes in their jobs, also. Currently, about 6,000 word lexicons are in use. After a person dictates into the machine, it will type up to 97% of what was said. In addition, it can translate the material into 9 languages (including Hebrew, which it types backwards, and Konji symbols, which it types sideways and the user reads down the columns). Machines such as this will lead to the demise of 50% of all clerical and stenographic jobs. But instead of going to an unemployment line, these workers will find jobs controlling the robots in factories with word-processing equip- ment. Not only will types of jobs change, but so will the definition of full employment. Currently, a 4.5% unemployment rate is considered full employment. By the year 1990, 8.5% unemployment will be considered full employment. This is not as disturbing as it first appears, for at any given time 3.5% of the work force will be in training and education programs preparing for new jobs. This will be made possible, in part, because of the job shift patterns. In 1980, 45% of the households had 2 people working. In 1990, this will increase to 65%, and in 2000, 75% of family units will have 2 incomes. This shift will allow easier entry and exit from the work force to the training programs and back to the work force. Forecasts estimate that, every 4 or 5 years, one or the other of the spouses or partners will leave the ranks of the employed to receive the additional knowledge and skills demanded by changes in technology and the workplace. With these changes already taking place, Americans must acquire the knowledge and skills they will need for today's new jobs and for the future jobs that will soon need to be filled with qualified workers. Vocational 188 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 educators and trainers must gear up to provide this vital education and training to the work force of the next two decades. The future will include jobs related to robots, lasers, computers, energy and battery technology, geriatric social work, hazardous waste management, and biomedical elec- tronics. (See table for some of the jobs that are disappearing and others that are growing in the shifting job market). The Shifting Job Market Some jobs that will be disappearing by 1990: oio Decline in Occupation Employment Linotype operator -40.0 Elevator operator 30.0 Shoemaking machine operators 19.2 Farm laborers 19.0 Railroad car repairers 17.9 Farm managers 17.1 Graduate assistants 16.7 Housekeepers, private household 14.9 Childcare workers, private household 14.8 Maids and servants, private household 14.7 Farm supervisors 14.3 Farm owners and tenants 13.7 Timber cutting and logging workers 13.6 Secondary school teachers 13.1 Some jobs that will be growing until 1990: ?A) Growth in Occupation Employment Data processing machine mechanics +157.1 Paralegal personnel 143.0 Computer systems analysts 112.4 Midwives 110.0 Computer operators 91.7 Office machine service technicians 86.7 Tax preparers 77.9 Computer programmers 77.2 Aero-astronautic engineers 74.8 Employment interviewers 72.0 Fast food restaurant workers 69.4 Childcare attendants 66.5 Veterinarians 66.1 Chefs 55.0 189 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 New Occupations for the 1990s The following occupations are among those that we can expect to be- come increasingly important. Included with each is a short description, starting salary, average salary, and training requirements. The descriptions have been prepared by Clyde Helms and Marvin Cetron, president and vice president of Occupational Forecasting, respectively. Energy Technician-650,000 jobs starting at $13,000, averaging $26,000. Jobs will dramatically increase as new sources of energy become marketable. Demand will greatly exceed available supply of labor in nu- clear power plants; coal, shale, and tar sands extraction, processing, and distribution; solar systems manufacturing, installation, and maintenance; synfuels production; biomass facilities operations; and possibly geothermal and ocean thermal energy conversion operations. Technicians, inspectors, and supervisory positions will require a high- school education and the equivalent of two years of technical college. Housing Rehabilitation Technician-500,000 jobs starting at $14,000, averaging $24,000. In the next 35 years the world population will double, intensifying housing demand. This will lead to mass production of modular housing, using radically new construction techniques and materials. Mod- ular housing will be fabricated with all heating, electric, waste disposal and recycling, and communications systems pre-installed. Technicians, inspectors, and supervisors will require a high-school ed- ucation and the equivalent of two years of technical education plus ap- propriate experience such as formal apprenticeship. Hazardous Waste Management Technician-300,000 jobs starting at $15,000, averaging $28,000. Many years and billions of dollars may be required to clean up cities, industries, air, land, and water. Additionally, tens of thousands of jobs will be added to each area as breeder reactors and coal, shale, and tar sands mining and processing reach commercial stages. When the requirements for collection, transportation, and disposal of radiological, biological, and chemical wastes are included, the total workers needed could well exceed 1.5 million. Highly specialized technical training will be required for workers, su- pervisors, and managers in this very hazardous occupation. Industrial Laser Process Technician-600,000 jobs starting at $15,000, averaging $25,000. Laser manufacturing equipment and processes, in- cluding robotic factories, will replace many of the machine and foundry tools and equipment. The new equipment, processes, and materials will permit attainment of higher production quality at lower production costs. High school, technical training, and retraining requirements will vary with levels of skill required under a severe system of job evolution. Industrial Robot Production Technician-800,000 jobs starting at $15,000, averaging $24,000. The microprocessor industry will become the third largest industry in the U.S., facilitating extensive use of robots to perform computer-directed "physical" and "mental" functions. Mil- lions of human workers will be displaced. New workers will be needed to ensure fail-proof operation of row after row of production robots. Knowledge and skills requirements will compare with present-day com- 190 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 puter programmers and electronics technicians. Materials Utilization Technician-400,000 jobs starting at $15,000, averaging $24,000. Future materials are being engineered and created to replace metals, synthetics, and other production materials not suited for advanced manufacturing technologies. Materials utilization technicians must be trained in working with amorphous and polymer materials and others that may be produced at the molecular level through the process of molecular beam epitaxy, involving atomic crystal growth. In addition, there will be genetically engineered organic materials. These and other "man-made" materials will substitute for natural-element metals and ma- terials now being depleted. An education level equivalent to that of an electronics technician, tool and die maker, nondestructive materials testing specialist, or industrial inspector will be required. Two years of technical college will be the minimum requirement. Genetic Engineering Technician-250,000 jobs starting at $20,000, averaging $30,000. Genetically engineered materials will greatly improve upon and supersede present organic materials and will also produce ben- eficial effects upon some inorganic materials processes. These engineered "man-made" materials will find extensive usage in three general fields: industrial products, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products. Com- pletely new and modified materials and substances will be produced under laboratory-like conditions and in capacities comparable to industrial mass- production quantities. Technicians must be educated and trained to work under laboratory-type controls without inhibiting production of some of the materials in tonnage lots. A bachelor's degree in chemistry, biology, or medicine will be helpful in the initial industrial production work, but production operations will be accomplished by "process technicians" with high-school and two-year postsecondary technical education and training. Holographic Inspection Specialist-200,000 jobs starting at $20,000, averaging $28,000. Completely automated factories will use optical fibers for sensing light, temperature, pressures, and dimensions and transmitting this information to optical computers that will compare this data with holographic, three-dimensional images stored in the computer. Substantial numbers of inspectors and quality-control staffs will be replaced. Specialists working in this new technology will require a minimum of two years of postsecondary technical education and training, with em- phases on optical fibers characteristics and transmission, photography, optical physics, and computer programming. Bionic-Medical Technician-200,000 jobs starting at $21,000, av- eraging $32,000. Mechanics will be needed to manufacture the actual bionic appendage (arm, leg, hand, foot) while other specialists work on the highly sophisticated extensions of neuro-sensing mental functions (seeing, hearing, feeling, speaking) and brain-wave control. These technicians will require appropriate technical knowledge of mi- croprocessors and specialized accredited education in the respective an- atomical, physiological, and psychiatric disciplines equivalent to a minimum 191 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 of four years of college work. Medical professionals who establish a reputation will move into the higher six-figure levels of earning. Automotive Fuel Cell (Battery) Technician-250,000 jobs starting at $12,000, averaging $18,000. These technicians will schedule and per- form tests and services for new fuel cells and batteries used in vehicles and stationary operation, including residences. Such fuel cells may be charged and discharged by direct electric inputs from conventional electric distribution systems, by solar cells, and by exotic chemicals generating electricity within the cells. These processes include potential hazards but can be safely serviced by technicians with a vocational high school education. On-Line Emergency Medical Technician-400,000 jobs starting at $16,000, averaging $29,000. The need for paramedics will increase di- rectly with the growth of the population and its aging. In forthcoming megalopolises and high-density residences, emergency medical treatment will be rendered on the spot with televised diagnoses and instruction from remote emergency medical centers. Despite reports of a forthcoming glut of doctors, they and other professional and paramedical specialists will become part of emergency medical teams, traveling in elaborately equipped mobile treatment centers. To meet the needs for more complete treatment on site, education and training must be upgraded to an extent comparable to that required for registered nurses. Geriatric Social Worker-7000,000 jobs starting at $15,000, aver- aging $22,000. These workers will be essential for the mental and social care of the nation's aging population. By the year 2000, the birthrate of native-born Americans will merely equal the "replacement rate"?zero population growth. Improvements in food, medicine, and life-extending medical processes will create the need for hundreds of thousands of work- ers to serve the aged. Education and experience requirements comparable to those for licensed practical nurses, recreational specialists, mental hygienists, and dieticians will enable GSWs to find financially and physically rewarding employ- ment. Energy Auditor?l80,000 jobs starting at $11,500, averaging $15,600. Using the latest infrared devices and computer-based energy consumption and controlled networking, energy auditors will work with product en- gineers and marketing staffs in the production, sales, operation, and man- agement of energy conservation and control systems for housing, industrial plants, and machinery. They will help architects and cost accountants achieve significant cost reductions through use of sophisticated heat sen- sing and measurement devices and systems, appropriate construction and insulation materials, and energy enhancement and recovery systems. Technicians, inspectors, and supervisors will require a high-school ed- ucation and the equivalent of two years of technical college education plus appropriate apprenticing or on-the-job experience. Nuclear Medicine Technologist-75,000 jobs starting at $18,000, averaging $29,000. With the advanced understanding of medicines and 192 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 serums using radioisotopes, a substantial increase in demand for this tech- nologist will be needed. As the isotopes are absorbed in tissues and mus- cles, diagnosticians can observe functions of normal and/or damaged tissues and organs and can determine treatment needs and responses to medication in the central nervous, cardiovascular, pulmonary, digestive, and meta- bolic systems. Flow of medicines and effects can be traced and viewed directly on computer-enhanced video displays, thus reducing the incidence of surgery. Technologists must be trained to work in laboratory conditions, become familiar with sophisticated equipment, and be prepared to assist doctors and nurses in handling equipment and patients. Dialysis Technologist-30,000 jobs starting at $16,000, averaging $25,000. With the use of new portable dialysis machines and a greater number of hospital dialysis machines available, the demand for more dialysis technologists will grow. These technologists must be educated and trained to work under lab- oratory conditions in a two-year postsecondary technical education pro- gram including a four-week computer-assisted training program and instruction from other dialysis technologists. Computer Axial Tomography (CAT) Technologist/Technician- 45,000 jobs starting at $13,000, averaging $20,400. Though more than a decade has passed since development of this technique for using X rays with computer technology to give sectional views of internal body struc- tures, the supply of qualified technicians has not kept pace with the growth of this non-invasive diagnostic science and equipment. Jobs for technicians to install, maintain, and operate CAT scanning systems and assist in the analysis of these scans will offer attractive employment situations for thousands of qualified people. Minimum requirements for technicians include two years of postsec- ondary education and on-the-job training on the actual equipment in a participating hospital or equipment manufacturer. Minimum requirements for technologists include two years of instruction in anatomy, biology, and medicine. Fully qualified professionals will need further education leading to a baccalaureate degree. Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Technician/Technologist- 165,000 jobs starting at $14,500, averaging $17,500. PET scanners are used for diagnoses of disorders of the human brain. Requirements for qualified workers in this field will increase with the growing use of this science, advances in human and computer technology, and research in human intelligence. Due to specialization in several technological and medical disciplines, technicians will be specialized. Minimum requirements for technicians will include two years at the postsecondary level. They will specialize in equipment, chemistry, phys- ics, or computer programming. Technologists must be qualified at the professional level, including a baccalaureate degree. Both occupations will require on-the-job experience. Computer-Assisted Design (CAD) Technicians-300,000 jobs start- ing at $18,000, averaging $30,000. New uses for applications for this new design, engineering, and production technology will create hundreds 193 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 of new occupations for CAD specialists, both professional and nonprofes- sional. Millions of workers?including blueprint file clerks, draftspeople, designers, engineers, researchers, inspectors, secretaries, and artists?will find the computer can do more, better, and faster than traditional methods. Whether designing modes of transportation, dwellings, or other products, CAD will affect the education, employment, and ways of work more than any other single technology. Education and training requirements will include high-school diplomas and at least two years of postsecondary technical school Computer-Assisted Graphics Technician (CAG)-150,000 jobs starting at $20,000, averaging $35,000. Rapid growth of computer-assisted graph- ics will affect the education, training, and employment of all graphics technicians as no other event in graphics pictorial history. Demands for artists and technicians will increase tenfold with an increase in demand for new forms and dimensions of graphics to portray objects, schemes, and scenarios before they are actually produced. Basic education and training will still include the physics of color, layout, dimensions, etc., along with instruction on specialized effects attainable through computers, computer programming, and business po- tentials and effects. Computer-Assisted Manufacturing (CAM) Specialist-300,000 jobs starting at $20,000, averaging $31,000. CAM systems will permit all the design, development, specification, and logistics data to be pulled out of CAD and CAG data bases and be reprogrammed into computer-assisted manufacturing programs, which will then operate most of the production facility. This permits the attainment of Flexible Manufacturing Cells (FMC) in which every step of producing a product is determined and programmed sequentially for accomplishment without or with minimal human inter- vention. Education and training requirements must be changed in almost all occupations, especially in industrial and business management and personnel administration. Education and training will include a high-school education and at least two years of training in postsecondary or technical institutions. Computerized Vocational Training (CVT) Technicians-300,000 jobs starting at $14,000, averaging $22,500. Hundreds of thousands of these technicians will be employed in education and training materials development firms as this art becomes a new science to use in programs at all levels and in all disciplines in public and private educational insti- tutions. Utilizing the demonstration capabilities and versatilities inherent in CAD software, in conjunction with the art and color expression of computer graphics, educators and trainers will be able to depict any object and any action with a vividness and dynamism that will produce higher learning benefits than any mode ever employed. Students will be able to assemble or disassemble the most complex mechanisms, construct the most artistic forms, and design dwellings and structures without ever leaving their computer terminals. While "hands-on-training" will remain an essential part of vocational training, terminology and work sequencing will be learned at the CRT. Textbooks and lesson plans, lengthy lectures and dissertations will become pass?n the coming decades of learning by 194 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 doing at the computer terminal interface. Up to 75% of all instruction will be acquired at the computer console, allowing teachers to spend much more time helping students learn actual on-the-job work skills with actual products and processes. Technicians working in this new area will specialize in graphic arts, computer programming, educational and learning theory and practice, and technical competence in respective vocational technologies. At least two years of technical education after high school will be required. Strategies to Provide Training for New Jobs To upgrade and update the capacity of vocational education to provide the education and training needed by the labor force of the future will require addressing three areas of concern: acquiring competent teachers; changing prevailing attitudes toward education, training, and new tech- nologies; and updating teaching methodology and instructional materials. Attracting Competent Teachers Currently, competent teachers are not attracted to the profession due to low salaries and low status. Competent teachers in vocational education, math, and science can earn 50-60% more in positions in the private sector. The decline in the profession can and must be stopped. Over the years, teacher-education programs have encountered declining enrollments?due, in part, to low salaries, to oversupplies during baby-boom years, and to the high status of working in the private sector. To counteract the declining enrollments, teacher training programs lowered their standards for entry, which resulted in not only attracting a lower caliber of student into the program, but also making teacher training a curriculum of last resort for those students who could not make it in other curriculums. To reverse this trend, long- and short-term strategies must be instituted nationwide. Teaching can be made more attractive through the support of administrators and by raising the salaries of teachers, especially in areas of high demand such as vocational education, math, and science. Raising the salaries by 20% across the board, and by an additional 20% in those areas of high demand, will attract teachers back from the private sector and encourage a higher caliber of student to enter undergraduate teacher- preparation programs. The law of supply and demand will work if other constraints, such as inflexible pay scales and tenure laws, are lifted; but standards must not be lowered. For long-term solutions to assuring a supply of competent teachers, a series of three hurdles must be instituted by teacher-preparation programs and departments of education on a national basis: 1. Before acceptance into a teacher education program, students must have scored at least 850 combined total on their SATs and have passed a proficiency test in reading, writing, and computational skills. 2. Before continuing in a teacher education program, students must maintain above average grades (3.0 GPA or the equivalent) for the first two years of undergraduate work (or the equivalent). 3. Before receiving permanent certification, a teacher must pass a com- petency examination and receive positive evaluations from supervisors, administrators, and/or peers. 195 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17 : ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 These are not new suggestions; each has been implemented successfully in several states already. The implementation of these standards will not happen without controversy. Witness the furor caused by Penn State's Joe Paterno and the NCAA when they decided to require a total of 700 on the SATs before accepting college athletes. But for assured positive impact on the teaching profession as a whole, each of the three (entry standards, maintenance standards, and certification standards) must be initiated and maintained on a national basis. Requiring each prospective teacher to overcome these hurdles will tighten the profession's standards and limit the numbers entering to the best. The resulting shortage of teachers will raise salaries and attract more from other places. The downward spiral will be reversed and the status of the teacher will rise, along with the salaries and the level of competence. If we do not reverse the trend, we may be forced to use teachers from foreign countries, similar to the medical professions' solution to maintain medical services in rural America. To relieve the short-term lack of math, science, and vocational teachers, rather than tolerate less than the best, the best retired teachers or business people in these fields could take a 1-2 month refresher course and return to the classroom for a year or two. To further alleviate the shortage, corporations could be encouraged to make available some of their skilled technical people to provide some teaching. Along with limiting entrants into the profession to the best, schools must continually retrain their good teachers. For example, computer lit- eracy for every high-school student and every teacher must be required. In-service programs provided by school districts or departments of edu- cation should be available, and every teacher should be able to pass a computer literacy test within four years. If teachers do not fill the gap in their skills, they should be phased out on the basis of failing to keep current with the requirements of the profession. To win the salaries and esteem that the profession deserves, schools cannot keep deadwood on their faculties. Changing Prevailing Attitudes Toward Education, Training, and New Technologies Across the board, the gap is closing between the highest and lowest students. Special programs help the lower students come up to their ca- pacities; however, few programs help the truly brilliant students perform at their capacities. In general, teachers who are brighter and capable of making more money are going into other occupations and are being re- placed by less adequate teachers, so the students with the greatest potential are not getting the necessary support. The latest report by the National Commission on Excellence in Edu- cation states the problems with the U.S. educational system very bluntly: "If an unfriendly foreign power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war." The commission found that some 23 million American adults are functionally illiterate, nearly 40% of the 17-year olds cannot draw inferences from written material, and two-thirds of the 17- 196 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 year-olds cannot solve a math problem. College entrance tests show a steady decline in scores in such subjects as physics and mathematics. The commission strongly recommends increasing the length of the school day from six hours to seven or eight hours and the length of the school year from 180 to 210 days. (Additionally, I recommend one and a half hours a day of homework instead of the current one and a half hours a week.) But the report doesn't say who will pay for the extra hours of teaching, how the economy will absorb the additional 10-12% of women who will join the work force because their children are at school longer, or what will happen if large numbers of the children now in private schools return to public schools as a result of the longer school day. There are, however, other steps that can be taken to improve education in the United States: ? Increase the number and competence of math and science teachers. ? Adopt more rigorous measurable standards of academic achievement. ? Adopt a curriculum that requires four years of English, three years of math, three years of physical and biological sciences, three years of social sciences, and one-half year of computer science. If a person ii.planning to go to college, there should be an additional two years of languages required. America must encourage its youth to be proud of their skills in science, math, and vocational subjects. Students in any of these areas of study should not be made to feel inferior to anyone. Traditional funding sources, as well as parent/teacher groups, boosters clubs, etc. should be encouraged to make money and give funds to "mathletes" and "chemletes" as well as athletes. Students should be given letters in math, physics, chemistry, and vocationally-related extracurricular activities, similar to athletic let- ters. Finally, schools should be pouring dollars into computers rather than stadiums. Education must equip people to change. As important as math, science, and vocational skills are, they are not enough. As society changes, so will the skills and knowledge needed to be productive and satisfied. The higher levels of cognitive skills must be learned as early as possible. People must be taught skills in decision-making, problem solving, creativity, com- munications, critical thinking, evaluation, analysis, synthesis, and the structuring of problems to understand what the results ought to be. We must make people think. Updating Teaching Methods Keeping vocational education programs up to date always has been a problem. The rapid pace of technological change accentuates and widens the gap between programs and the cutting edge of knowledge. Budget cutbacks make the problem even greater. The same problem has hit in- dustry. Consequently, businesses are turning to computerized training to lessen the cost and, at the same time, maintain or improve the quality of their programs. At the forefront of this nationwide trend is the PLATO computer-assisted instruction system developed by Control Data Corpo- ration. 197 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The applications for PLATO are as limitless as the range of business and industry itself. Such diverse industries as manufacturing, petroleum, banking, real estate, finance, aviation, and emergency medicine find PLATO indispensable. Individual companies and associations training with PLATO include American Airlines, General Motors, General Mills, Shell, DuPont, Federal Express, National Association of Securities Dealers, Bank Ad- ministration Institute, Con Edison, and Merck Sharp and Dohme. Computer-assisted instruction (CAI) is easily adaptable for short-term training. Many of the unemployed need two or three months of training for a job that will exist. CAI is practical and effective. Currently, over 12,000 hours of training make up the body of PLATO, with more added constantly. The information is absolutely up-to-date. If this or similar programs were implemented in vocational-technical schools, every teacher and every student would have immediate access to the most recent infor- mation available. Students could learn theory and related content on the computer. Teachers could then work individually with students for the hands-on training that is so vital in vocational education. This method requires a different kind of thinking by teachers. Insecure teachers will feel threatened by the computer if they have not yet become computer literate. But the computer is a tool to make teaching more efficient and more effective?not a replacement for the teacher. Maintaining a skilled work force will take an enormous expenditure of resources. Operating training programs in vocational, technical, and in- dustrial facilities 24 hours a day will eliminate much of the need for duplicating expensive equipment. Even more importantly, we must use our training dollars only for jobs that exist or will exist in the near future. In the past, the training programs sponsored by the Comprehensive Education and Training Act (CETA) did not give Americans what was promised. Sixty percent of the money was used for administration; the remaining 40% went into training. Only 3% of the trainees actually obtained jobs. The people were trained for jobs that did not exist and will not exist. For example, up until 1979 people were still being trained to be linotype and elevator operators, even though a need for these skills had not been identified for the preceding 10 years. In fact, the equipment these people were trained to operate had not been manufactured for 15 years preceding 1979. The new Job Partnership Training Act has tried to correct this by re- quiring that 70% of the funds go to actual training programs and limiting administration to 15%. The remaining 15% is designated for basic literacy education and for childcare services for trainees. Conclusion The jobs of the future are changing in nature. America needs to make short- and long-term changes to avoid disastrous consequences. The first step is to begin to encourage the unemployed to upgrade their skills and take lower-paying jobs as temporary solutions. The next step is to get the education system back on track to produce educated minds that accept the challenges of the future and want to learn more. Strong 198 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: ,CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 - emphasis on education is necessary; however, it is not sufficient. Training for the occupations of tomorrow is also needed. Finally, Americans must admit past mistakes and do what it takes to make the country strong and stable in the future. References Cetron, Marvin, and O'Toole, Thomas. Encounters with the Future: A Forecast of Life in the 21 st Century. McGraw Hill: 1982. National Assessment of Education for the Last 13 Years. Educational Commission of the States, Denver, Colorado, January, 1983. A Nation at Risk: The Imperative for Educational Reform. National Commission on Excellence in Education. April, 1983. 199 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Knowledge, Technology, and Professional Motives for the Future by M. Kent Mayfield Paradigms for social change are rapidly shifting. D.N. Chorafas, for example, argues that the industrial revolution is over, superseded by a knowledge revolution that will result in upheavals as great as any spawned by the industrial revolution.' Peter Drucker outlines the emergence of a knowledge society where the systematic collection, organization, and ap- plication of information is the basic foundation for work and productivity.2 Alvin Toffler tells us that society is now riding a wave of revolutionary change that will provide civilization with more, and more precisely or- ganized, information than could have been imagined even a quarter-cen- tury ago.3 The concept of a "post-industrial society," particularly as outlined by Daniel Bell, is probably the most widely known analysis of the coming social order.4 Bell describes his society along five dimensions. First, the economic sector of society is experiencing a shift whereby a greater pro- portion of the labor force is engaged in providing services rather than working in agriculture and manufacturing. Second, the number of indi- viduals engaged in professional and technical employment is increasing. Third, theoretical knowledge gains rising importance in contrast with the primary use of empirical knowledge that characterized industrial society. The central role of technology requires, according to Bell, the continuous opening of new technological frontiers. Therefore, a fourth dimension of post-industrial society is a future orientation that involves the deliberate planning and assessment of technological growth. Finally, post-industrial society experiences the rise of a new intellectual technology to handle multi-variable problems. A common theme in the literature is that the emerging society is a technologically-based service economy with a work force dominated by highly professionalized groups whose elite status is based on their pos- session, manipulation, and application of specialized knowledge. The emphasis that social forecasters give to the role of knowledge, the emergence of technological elites, and the service orientation of the econ- omy are all themes that have great appeal to the professions. The danger M. Kent Mayfield is director of education for the Medical Library Association, Chi- cago, Illinois. 200 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 is that, in their enthusiasm to serve and join the elites of the post-industrial society, social forecasters may adopt the uncritical attitudes that seem to have characterized earlier efforts to respond to social change and the tacit acceptance of social goals formulated by elite segments in American so- ciety whose main objective was and is to preserve the status quo.5 Eager as professionals may seem for increasingly important roles in the knowledge-based society of the future, change of long-established practice does not equal the velocity of technology itself. Technology adoption follows a regular pattern: In the first stage, technology replaces manual or traditional methods, and activities are performed faster and more ef- fectively; in the second stage, technology fosters new applications and things are done that were never done before; in the third stage, technology transforms or changes lifestyles. And, Kochen warns, "The flow of tech- nology is so rapid it can acquire a momentum of its own and sweep us into lifestyles we may not like . . . We have barely enough lead time to prepare for an effective control."6 Yet, in a day when the world of corporate business is promoting the use of new communicative technologies to close the gap between an exponentially expanding information base and its effective management, the professional community lags far behind in its response to the immediate question of organizational information resource management and the far- reaching, and certainly more serious, issue of managing the intellectual resources on which' society is based. The Conference Board raised the issue in its 1971 information management policy analysis study;7 edu- cational groups and medical associations have more recently voiced similar concern.8 The intellectual professional community is familiar with the question. The assumptions of scholarly professional activity are not far removed from notions of information as a resource or a commodity to be managed nor from the considerations of the access to and transmission of knowledge or information as essential elements of professionalism. Why, then, so cautionary a posture on the part of the professions? Nina Matheson, in her report on "Roles for the Library in Information Management," suggests that "the major barrier to change is often not the love of the status quo but the lack of a clear picture of where technology leads . . . . Without a vision . . . a concrete demonstration of feasibility, change is difficult to initiate."9 Therefore, she sets forth three scenarios describing how the evolution of the present environment into more ad- vanced stages might proceed. Matheson describes the outlook for one profession, that of medical librarianship, but it resonates with significance for the professions more generally. But, intriguingly sketched as her canvases are, they lack the very dimension by which Matheson commends them to our consideration. Concerned with the organized surveillance of information, possessing special skill in manipulating knowledge, and therefore justifiably eager to foresee what impact technology will have on their world of work in the future, for what purpose, toward what goal, with what intent does the profession now define itself? No engaging, commanding, humane social or professional motive is evident. Nor, then, is there that motive that can enliven a profession's practice. Lacking that, although technologically 201 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 sophisticated and organizationally complex, the work of the professional in the future she describes may be routine, mind-deadening, clerical, inconspicuous?a downward rather than an upward linear projection of the status quo. The critical characteristic of any occupation recognized as a profession has been its grounding in a coherent body of theory, and in the technical "lore" grounded in its theory. The profession protects itself both by monitoring and controlling growth through research and by managing the distribution of private knowledge through venerable institutions or agen- cies. Only those persons surviving a prescribed protocol of training, in- doctrination, and scrutiny are allowed to apply knowledge in practice. The exclusive right vested in a profession by society for the use of such knowledge has been the basis for the profession's autonomy and the practitioner's authority over the client. The monopolization of specialized knowledge is now seen as funda- mental to the emergence of the technological elites in the post-industrial society. However, the monopoly of knowledge and the status of traditional professions are threatened by the increase in the level of education of the general public. The gap narrows between the professional and the client, even in areas of professional expertise, through books, articles, television programs, and other media. Consumer health groups sponsor workshops on self-help health care. "The law belongs to the people. Pass it on," reads a recent advertisement from a law book publisher. The intrusion of technology, especially the computer, also breaks down the monopoly of knowledge. Computers are becoming an important tool for all professions, forcing the practitioner to rely on specialists for access to and analysis of information in the professional field. Furthermore, information can be made widely accessible. "No longer," according to Haug, "need knowledge be packed only in the professional's head or in a specialized library, where it is relatively inaccessible. It can be available not just to those who know, but also to those who know how to get it. to As clients become more knowledgeable and have greater access to spe- cialized bodies of knowledge, we move closer to the self-service society. It will be those occupations that create the techniques and service that increase the direct access to information and who pursue that intent with vigor that will experience the greatest increase in status. The expansion of knowledge, seen as a harbinger of the post-industrial society, could in itself have a contra-professional effect. True, the growth of knowledge increases the number of specialists and experts vying for professional status, but it also leads to greater specialization and segmen- tation within professions. The proliferation of experts and the fragmen- tation within occupational groups diminishes the distinctive role of a specific profession and again reduces its ability to monopolize a body of knowledge and a system of technical lore. It is, then, increasingly difficult for the lay person to distinguish who is and who is not a professional. On the other hand, the client is in the advantageous position of having a wider range of expertise to draw upon. Information on a particular financial problem, for example, might be supplied by a lawyer, accountant, real estate broker, financial advisor, social worker. or librarian. As clients 202 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 become more knowledgeable and have a wider range of experts at their disposal, they become more self-reliant and demanding, require greater accountability for professional decisions, and assume a greater role in the governance of individual professions through lay representation in profes- sional bodies. Social change will undoubtedly have an impact on the established and emerging professions, but this change is not necessarily leading to a highly professionalized knowledge-based service society, at least not in the form often predicted by prominent futurists. Instead, it may be a time when clients are more self-reliant, depending less on professionals whose oc- cupational structure is based on the monopolization of a specific social service and the knowledge upon which it is based. What we could see is the emergence of a self-service society requiring a new kind of profes- sional, a professional who helps the client become more self-sufficient. Indeed, this is now occurring; occupations that are often cited as the emerging or semi-professions with little chance of attaining the full profes- sional status of the recognized professions can now be shown to be, in fact, a new distinct type of profession, the goals of which are consonant with those of a changing society. William Bennett and Merle Hokenstad, expanding on the work of Paul Halmos, have made the challenging case that there is a group of "people- working" or "personal professions" significantly distinct from the tra- ditional professions. In contrast to such accepted professions as medicine, law, architecture, and engineering, which prescribe solutions to the client's problems, the newer professions, such as education, social work, and the mental health sciences, "function as catalysts who, through the com- munication of information and sharing of insights, attempt to help the client help himself. "11 The elite professional uses his or her knowledge to help the client but does not share the knowledge, while the personal professional shares the profession's knowledge so that the client is better able to cope with his or her problem. The client's problems are often social or economic and may have a political or spiritual aspect to them in that the professional may serve as an allocator of a beneficial resource?information, welfare, salvation. Because of the nature of the problems, then, the knowledge- base of the personal professions also differs from that of the impersonal (older or elite) professions. It is less substantive, more technique-oriented, especially with regard to interpersonal skills and strategies for transferring knowledge. It is the ideal of the personal professional that the client grows or changes through the meetings with the professional and in the future can handle the problem without the professional. In short, the professional and the client become more like each other. This is in sharp contrast to the elite professional, whose clients are expected to return for any recurring problems and are not expected to become self- sufficient at any point. While it may be difficult to ascertain what course of action is specifically appropriate for the professions, it is clear that attempts to protect the ideologies and structures of the elite tradition alone would be a retro- gressive step if the professions are to meet the challenge of social change. 203 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 A few propositions may be important in identifying professional motives for the future: 1. The professions must clarify who they are, what and whom they care about, what they have a talent to do, what kind of world it is into which they have been thrust, and where and how that being and caring and doing can change the world in the direction of their highest aspiration for it. 2. The professions must adhere to the practice of encouraging the growth of persons?competent, integrated, sufficient?and of demonstrable hu- man outcomes. 3. The professions must be committed to insuring the greatest access to knowledge, opposing censorship and the monopolization of information by the private sector and promoting freedom of information and increased access for all clients. 4. The professions must not be limited to outmoded models of profes- sional identity that would limit their contribution to social change. Instead, they should reflect on Haug's observation that "perhaps the term 'profes- sional' with all its upper class implications will become obsolete or even a pejorative term, symbol of an earlier, pre-modern era. Some new word to signify the human service expert will emerge in the 21st Century." 5. The professions must not feel threatened by the emergence of other occupational groups concerned with the organization and dissemination of knowledge nor see in them the occasion for compromise or accom- modation, but instead approach them as allies. Perhaps these are little more than a reiteration of long-standing principles of exemplary professional practice, not always adequately applied but still valid. It is the critical and forceful application of these concepts that will be the challenge to established professional groups as they cope with knowledge, technology, and the selection of motives for the future. Notes 1. Chorafas, D.N., The Knowledge Revolution, London: George Allen and Unvin, 1968. 2. Drucker, Peter E., The Age of Discontinuity, Harper, 1968, pp. 263-380. 3. Toffler, Alvin, The Third Wave. Morrow, 1980, p. 193. 4. Bell, Daniel, The Coming of Post-Industrial Society. Basic Books, 1973. 5. Harris, Michael H., "Portrait in Paradox: Commitment and American Li- brarianship, 1876-1976," Libri, December 1976, pp. 281-301. 6. Kochen, Manfred, "Technology and Communication in the Future," Journal of the American Society for Information Science, March 1981, pp. 148-156. 7. Kozmetsky, George, Ruefli, T.W., "Information Technology: Initiatives for Today?decisions that cannot wait." New York: The Conference Board, 1971. 8. Sawhill, T.C., "Curriculum Priorities for the '80s: Beyond Retrenchment," Current Issues in Higher Education, 1980. Vol. 4, pp. 13-33; Tosteson, D.C., "Sci- ence, Medicine, and Education," Journal of Medical Education, January 1981, pp. 8- 15. 9. Matheson, Nina. Academic Information in the Academic Health Sciences Cen- ter. Association of American Medical Colleges, 1982, pp. 27-29. 10. Haug, Marie R., "The Deprofessionalization of Everyone?" Sociological Fo- cus, August 1975, pp. 197-213; Helena Z. Lopata, "Expertization of Everyone and 204 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 the Revolt of the Client," Sociological Quarterly, Autumn 1976, pp. 435-47; Adam Yarmolinsky, "What Future for the Professional in American Society?" Daedalus, Winter 1978, pp. 159-74; Rue Bucher and Anselm Strauss, "Professions in Process," American Journal of Sociology, January 1961, pp. 325-34. 11. Bennett, William J., Jr., and Merle C. Hokenstad, Jr. "Full-time People Workers and Conceptions of the 'Professional" in Paul Halmos, ed., The Sociological Review Monograph, University of Keele, 1973, pp. 21-45; Paul Halmos, The Per- sonal Service Society, Cardiff: University of Wales Press, 1966. 205 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Education: What Do We Do? I 1 ' Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The Reindustrialization of Vocational Education by Amitai Etzioni "Vocational education is not a priority," lamented Richard Arnold, division manager of the Community Educational Relations Department of AT&T. "The Business Round Table decided not to take it on," confided one of my colleagues. When Iran into David Goslin, the top social science staffer of the National Academy of Sciences on the way to a "VocEd" meeting, he wanted to know, "What are you doing here?" When Con- gressman Carl D. Perkins launched hearings on possible renewal of the massive five-year program of federal aid to vocational education (which was due to run out September 30,1982), the opposing views did not make the network news, indeed were barely reported at all. Vocational education may not be a prestigious or "in" subject, but it requires attention in this era of national turnabout. Call it renewal, revi- talization, or?I naturally prefer my own term?reindustrialization, the quality and preparation of human capital is a vital part of the renewed attention to economic growth. Few if any would contest the elementary truth that even if government intervention in the marketplace is slashed, its guzzling of resources is effectively curbed, and R&D and the formation of capital are encouraged, labor will still remain an essential factor in any equation defining the elements of productivity and economic growth. Indeed, a pivotal element of the first industrialization of America, roughly between the 1820s and the 1920s, was the mass preparation of immigrants and farmers for work in factories, including acculturation, general edu- cation?and vocational education. The Condition of Human Capital Many corporate executives find vocational education?and, more widely, preparation for jobs?a subject best delegated to someone in personnel, a topic not nearly as worthy as return on capital, new technologies, or even labor relations. The same executives are nevertheless keenly aware of the bottom line of the condition of human capital, the frequent absence of "employable skills." There is an acute shortage of persons with some specific skills (computer programmers, toolmakers, engineers, secretar- Amitai Etzioni is university professor at The George Washington University, Wash- ington, D.C. and is also director of the Center for Policy Research, New York City and Washington, D.C. This article is based on his book An Immodest Agenda: Rebuilding America Before the Twenty-First Century (McGraw-Hill, 1982). 209 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: LCIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 ies). Moreover, in the groups of workers, blue collar and white collar, who are available in abundance, many are reported to be unable to read a blueprint, query a work processor or computer, compose a coherent report, or do simple calculations with assurance. "When I told her to use the yellow pages," a Washington-based executive says about his new secretary, "she said she couldn't." It turned out that she did not have a firm grasp of the alphabet, nor was she trained in the use of a simple index, two "skills" without which the yellow pages become quite un- wieldy. The U.S. Army, one of the greatest users of raw human capital, found out in a recent tank-battle simulation that the messengers and radio operators were unable to "decipher" rather simple, but urgent messages. Indeed, complaints about the lack of skills of the youth who graduate (or drop out) from American high schools, whether regular or vocational programs, have reached the level of a common clich?It is less widely recognized that in fact the poor skills level of many of America's youth is an important reason for "youth dispreference" in hiring. In a study conducted by a White House task force in preparation for the administra- tion's 1980 youth employment initiatives, employers said they could not find enough young people who have the basic skills of reading, writing, and arithmetic to perform white-collar jobs; they sometimes have to in- terview 12 to 15 young people to find one who can qualify for even an entry-level job. The literacy gap among applicants was a serious problem; major employers reported that over 60% of young applicants fail entry- level job exams. It is estimated that almost 23% of those who begin school will never receive a high-school diploma; even among those who do, many lack elementary preparation for work. Complaints about the decline of work-ethic are similarly common. Social scientists, whose job it is to be skeptical about all widely-held assumptions, are less sure. Economist Edward F. Denison, a leading authority on productivity, is "skeptical that a sudden drop in willingness to work is responsible for the recent retardation of productivity." His skepticism, he explains, is largely attributable to having heard similar generalizations all my life and having read them in the works of observers who wrote long before my birth. It was well before 1967 that I wrote, "Like the supposed decline in the spirit of enterprise, there seems always to be a popular belief that people are less willing to put in a hard day's work than they used to be, but this is scarcely evidence." Another leading authority in the field, the National Institute of Edu- cation's Henry David, in A Policy for Skilled Manpower, published 27 years ago, wrote "It was contended that workers are no longer governed by internal standards of work; that they display less of the old-time will- ingness to please the boss. . . ." Among the factors cited at the time were schools that no longer stress discipline, and decline of supervision at home because many mothers are employed. The truth may well lie somewhere between employers' complaints and social scientists' doubts. Assuredly, matrons in ancient Rome complained that "you can't get good help anymore," but there is some evidence that the quality of America's human capital has indeed deteriorated over the 210 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 [Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 last decades. A recent study by the National Assessment of Educational Progress found that the average quality of the writing of 17-year-olds is somewhat lower than it was in 1969, while the descriptive writing of 13- year-olds showed a "significant decline." The study concluded, "It ap- pears that a considerable proportion of young people?from 10 percent to 25 percent?do not understand the nature and conventions of written language." Similar data have previously been published on declines in ability to compute and most other things. And, despite his doubt about the decline in willingness to work, Denison found that great increases in the proportions of inexperienced workers? young people and adult women?among the employed caused a reduction of productivity, albeit not a major one. While the entry of so many young people and women into the labor force did increase total labor input and output, it added "less than an employment expansion of similar size would have done if it had been distributed like existing employment." The data indicating decline of the work ethic are much weaker and less clear, but still point toward less motivation to work hard, and more demand for using work for self-development rather than a day's pay. A recent survey conducted by Louis Harris for Sentry Insurance found that among labor leaders, business leaders, and the public, two-thirds to three-fourths endorse the views that people take less pride in their work than a few years ago; that their work motivation is not as strong as it used to be; and that people are not working as hard as they used to. Daniel Yankelovich reports in his recent book New Rules that the quest for self-fulfillment has drastically reduced the proportion of Americans who believe in "hard" work. In short, it seems that employers may be bitching as usual, but also may have more to bitch about. "Wait a moment," I can practically hear the reader exclaiming. "Will- ingness to work and employable skills are not the product of vocational education alone." Quite right. They are a kind of an educational bottom line that reflects all that preceded employment, from the condition of the home on. Was learning?and work?appreciated in the family? Was the primary school adequate? And so on. Vocational education builds on all this, and if the pillars are shaky the roof cannot be stable. Vocational education cannot make up for years of underpreparation for the world of work, of jobs. The more general term "job education" seems preferable when one wishes to include all work-relevant educational "inputs," leav- ing "vocational education" to refer to educational preparation for a spe- cific vocation or for skills applicable to several categories of jobs. In these terms, job education may be more at fault than vocational education, at least the place where matters first go awry. But call it any name, prep- aration for work seems to be deteriorating. Minorities, Women, and the Business Community Preparation for work is gaining renewed attention as the United States undergoes a major turnabout in its national priorities. After three decades of pumping up public and private consumption, social priorities, and 211 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 concern with "inner" growth and the environment, the national focus is shifting to rebuilding economic vitality and growth. As part of this turnabout, emphasis on minimum competence is replacing social (or automatic) promotion in schools, and emphasis on standards and structure is returning to colleges. While this shift in emphasis grows out of a general concern about falling skills, both its advocates and its detractors often use "minimum competence" and "standards" as code words for positions specifically concerning minorities. Social promotion in schools (and open admission in colleges) came to be favored, after compensatory education largely failed, to help minorities catch up with educational requirements. Many kids, especially in minority groups, were three to four years behind in math and English; instead of being held back to repeat classes endlessly, and suffer stigma on top of deficient skills, these young people were promoted?and graduated?automatically. Now, the call that schools demand at least some demonstrated competence is often perceived as aimed first and foremost at minorities. Moreover, for long, too long, the media have tended to depict unem- ployment as first of all a problem of inner city, minority, especially black youth. Major federal programs have been evolved to try to increase the employability of these young people. Indeed, preparing minorities for work is one of the two top priorities of the federal vocational education program. The program's other social justice target is women. States receive funds to hire "sex equity coordinators," whose tasks include reviewing all vocational programs in a state for sex bias and helping local education officials to improve vocational education opportunities for women. Indeed, the whole federal vocational education program smacks of the sixties. It began in 1963 with/the passage of the Vocational Education Act, which significantly exp ded federal aid to vocational education and established such funding as "permanent." In 1968 and again in 1976, Congress amended this act to inject social considerations into vocational education. The amendments provided that portions of the money appro- priated to vocational education programs were to be earmarked for special "target" groups, especially women, minorities, and the handicapped. Through these amendments, the federal government has been trying to spur the states to direct vocational education toward federal priorities rather than their own. It provides the states with only a fraction of the money that is spent on classroom vocational education, about 9% of roughly $6 billion spent annually on such training; the rest is provided by the states and local boards of education. (Of course, training on the job is provided mainly by the industry as well as a sizable growing number of schools run by corporations, especially big ones such as AT&T and GM.) Never- theless, the federal government has been trying to be the tail that wags the dog. Francis Tuttle, state director of vocational and technical education in Oklahoma, sums it up: "Under existing federal laws and guidelines, the federal government furnishes less than 10 percent of the money but is attempting to drive 100 percent of the programs. I don't think any of the states think this is appropriate." Most states, in turn, have tried their best to take the federal dollars and follow their own views as to what is 212 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 to be done. Tuttle notes, "What we have had to do sometimes is work around the federal rules in order to accomplish what we see as our prior- ities." The focus of vocational education on "special targets," the hardcore unemployed, equity, and social change, has led to a wholesale disregard of industrial and business needs. Young people have often been trained for jobs that did not exist and have ended up, in droves, working for local governments, not in the private sector. In its 1978 report on employment and inflation, the Joint Economic Committee concluded: The problem of teenage unemployment is not the inability to hold a job, but to get one in the first place . . . . The central focus of eliminating [this problem] must be to provide better mechanisms to match job seekers with jobs. Schools, businesses, and unions should expand the scope of the activities that link class- room activity to work. The Committee also noted, "Poor or nonexistent counseling often re- sults in coursework choices which are irrelevant to future jobs." Employers and their representatives second this complaint. Robert L. Craig, communications director of the American Society for Training and Development, an organization of private-sector job trainers, comments: Vocational education wastes a lot of money because the education people don't get together with the people from the world of work. There's a big gap between education and work, and the employer has to fill it. . . . Craig Musick, training director of the Graniteville Company in South Carolina, notes the discrepancy between education and industry in his own state: The technical colleges in South Carolina are trying to develop technicians (2 years) and skilled craftsmen (1 year) for business and industry. . . . However, corpofations have been slow to accept the technician concept because they do not have such a slot in their salary administration plan and corporate struc- ture. . . . Both units (college and industry) are training people but not working together. In addition, labor representatives have protested the lack of contact between educators and unions. Rod DuChemin, assistant director of human resources development for the AFL-CIO, notes that the split between the thought processes of the vocational education people and the business community is very wide. The vocational education people never really spend any time trying to learn what [union] apprenticeship programs are all about. Widening the gap between vocational education and the business world is provision of vocational education mainly through public schools, the majority of which are comprehensive high schools and community colleges that offer both vocational and academic programs of study. There are nearly 5,600 such institutions, compared to 700 vocational high schools, technical institutes, and other specialized schools that offer instruction primarily in technical education, and 1,900 area vocational schools and centers offering technical education on a part-time basis. Most compre- 213 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: DIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 hensive high schools tend to treat vocational education as a third cousin at best, while they favor liberal arts. Moreover, subjects that are not specifically vocational are increasingly taught in a way that makes them more academic?relevant to college but not jobs?as witnessed by recent changes in mathematics, economics, and natural sciences courses. A push in the same direction comes from the structure of the advisory vocational education boards states must set up if they are to receive federal funds. The federal government spelled out in fine detail 20 categories of people that must be represented on these boards. The advisory boards must include members concerned with the education of women, the hand- icapped, ex-cons, and people whose knowledge of English is limited; a VocEd student; and so on; but few are required to represent or understand the needs of the client of vocational education, the business community. Beyond this general, almost incomprehensible inattention to the client, the preoccupation with social priorities and liberal arts distracts attention from two other obstacles to rebuilding human capital for reindustrializa- tion: inappropriate psychic preparation and the mismatch between jobs and the labor force. Skills or Self-Discipline? Inadequate preparation of the labor (typical, by the way, of underde- veloped countries, which the United States is slowly coming to resemble) is not limited to some minorities, women, or inner cities. Large numbers of white males are also graduating from high school (or dropping out) unable to do elementary computation, and functionally illiterate, unable to follow a training ,manual, even one simplified to comic-book level. Moreover, to the extent that the widely-used term "lack of employable skills" focuses attention on cognitive deficiencies (inability to read, write, and compute), it is, I believe, deeply misdirected. As I see it, the quality in which large segments of the labor force are particularly deficient is self-discipline, the basis of the ability to work with authority figures, with co-workers, with rules, and to do routine tasks. Indeed, this deficient psychic preparation seems to me to be a main cause of both deficient cognitive preparation and unemployability. Intel- ligence is rarely the issue; even a person of relatively low IQ can memorize the alphabet if he or she is able to mobilize self for this elementary level of concentration and effort?in other words, has self-discipline. The intellectual demands of using an index system, reading a blueprint, or querying a computer are quite low, but these tasks do require an attention span, a level of concentration, and a systematic approach that exceeds that of impulse-ridden, unfettered minds. Behind most complaints about lack of skills (quite valid in themselves in that the person does not com- mand the skills) is the lack of adequate psychic preparation. Thus, the inability to compose a simple memo, indeed a paragraph, is not so much intellectual as psychic?the inability to adhere to simple rules?a sentence must have a subject and a verb and end with a period, and so on. (I refer here not to effective essay writing, but to straight composition.) Similarly, simple math requires first and foremost a level of self-discipline to mem- 214 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 orize some basics (e.g., multiplication tables) and to adhere to a few rules. As I see it, the shortage of secretaries reflects a shortage of people willing to deal with routines (such as filing), to memorize (as in stenography), and to submit to authority. The key attribute of a good toolmaker is precision; precision is not a matter of high IQ, but of considerable self- discipline. Indeed, give me a self-disciplined person, motivated to work, able to deal with others, with authority, and with rules, and having reasonable intelligence, and I will teach that person all the "employable skills" in short order. And give me a person lacking in these essential psychic traits, and I will find that person very difficult to teach?and to employ. Why the deficient psychic preparation? In an America in which most, if not all, institutions have eroded, each institution tends to load part of what it should do in a well-functioning societal division of labor onto the next one, creating multi-institutional overload. The result is an institutional domino theory: as one institution underperforms, it leans on the next and strains it. Laying the psychic foundation of self-discipline is first the task of the family; the formative years are crucial, and parents (and siblings) provide the first and most important "role models." True, even in good old America, not all families did their basic educational thing. But recently, with both parents often working outside the home, with "parents" often rotating (through divorces, a sequence of boyfriends or girlfriends, re- marriages, stepparents, grandparents temporarily playing parental roles, etc.), and with a widespread notion that normless permissiveness is the childrearing practice to follow, many kids reach the educational institutions woefully underprepared, from a psychological viewpoint. Schools are supposed to be the bridge from the family to the world of work?the first experience of dealing with rules, authority, time-specific "work" units, structured achievements and rewards?but in many of the nation's educational institutions the experience is quite different. These schools are overloaded with excessive and conflicting demands; suffer from a breakdown of inner discipline and structure; and are equipped with a boundless permissive psychological philosophy and burned-out staff. Particularly among schools in the inner cities, the breakdown of discipline has turned many institutions from educational establishments to inefficient warehouses, where the entrance of young people into the labor force is delayed while they indulge themselves, act out, and otherwise hinder those who wish to teach or learn. In these schools, protecting teachers from rape and assault, and the building from vandalism, is often itself a con- suming and inadequately performed task. Teaching does occur, but the sum of the educational experiences generated in these schools is a better preparation for a world of street gangs, drug-pushing, numbers-running, or sporadic work laced with drugs and alcohol than for "a day's work for a day's pay." Even where there are but few disadvantaged students, as in the many suburban public schools, the quality of psychic preparation varies a great deal. In many, the psychic message is based on a version of developmental 215 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 ' Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 psychology according to which the teacher focuses on the person, not on his or her ability to function within a team or community. The result is well depicted in The Class of '65, a book about the graduates of an upper- middle-class school in Pacific Palisades, California. The students, typi- cally the products of parental neglect or boundless permissiveness, had been faced by a school that set no clear standards, promoted no positive values, and "understood" the need to act out. Ten years later, only two of the graduates seem able to function in an adult work world. Others have committed suicide or had nervous breakdowns, are religious freaks or in a Turkish jail for drug smuggling, and so on. Some will eventually straighten out, but no thanks to their families or schools. Not all American schools are like that certainly; but maybe half of the nation's kids pass through such schools. Not all of those who appear at work's gate are underprepared psychically; about half of the youth is a reasonable estimate. When many families and schools are not doing their psychic preparation, their job-education, the task falls on the high school's vocational education programs, junior or community colleges (often openly perceived as re- medial institutions for what the high schools neglected), or special pro- grams, such as vocational schools. Many of these focus on cognitive elements (teaching remedial English or applied math). Other vocational programs do succeed in making up, to some extent, for previous defi- ciencies because they select youth in a way that screens out the psychically underprepared; or because they keep the kids day and night (the various "academies") and so can penetrate deeper into their pupils; or because training is closely tied to. available, sought-after jobs at the end of the schooling?a powerful incentive. Often, though, the load is passed to the next institution in sequence, the workplace. Large corporations end up spending hundreds of millions of dollars not on vocational training, or fine-honing skills to their needs, but on elementary job education and on attempts to cope with the con- sequences of deficient psychic preparation. Smaller corporations face even greater difficulties; unable to set aside the resources for schooling, they commonly have to make do with what they can hire: raw or underprocessed human capital. Mismatch Not all the difficulties arise from deficient psychic and cognitive prep- aration of workers; the world for which workers are being prepared has also changed. Henry David, who has led a major study of vocational education for the last five years, gives a telling example: twenty-five years ago a cabbie could be illiterate; today he must be able to write, because he is required to keep a log. Generally speaking, while the distribution of innate talent within the labor force may well not have changed, job requirements have escalated, with a decline in blue-collar and an increase in professional and semi-professional jobs. The computer revolution, the so-called onset of the post-industrial society, is but part of all this. No wonder less-skilled workers are in surplus and skilled ones in great de- mand. 216 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Reindustrialization of Human Capital: What Is to Be Done? All this suggests that there has been a wide decline of "employable skills," not one limited to minorities; that it is due first of all to institutional erosion and lack of self-discipline, not cognitive deficiencies; and that the federally imposed priorities of the sixties helped separate Vocational Ed- ucation from the world of work; and that changes in job specifications have added to the difficulties. If the preceding analysis is roughly correct, not too much is to be expected from attempts to straighten out the last domino of a teetering series. To ask vocational education in public institutions to provide "em- ployable" workers is to ask its often unappreciated staff, thrust aside by general educators and often ignored by business, to correct for underpre- paration by the family and the schools in both personality and cognitive areas, as well as to make up for what God and nature have not provided, an expanding pool of innate talent to suit raising job demands. Sure, some benefits can be squeezed out by using up-to-date instead of obsolete equip- ment (e.g., electric instead of manual typewriters). And a remedial course in English will somewhat improve the reading and memo writing of some. And if it is possible to forecast with reasonable accuracy where the jobs will be, and train people for them rather than for jobs that are vanishing, motivation to study will be improved. But these measures won't do the whole job. Greater benefits might be generated by basic organizational changes. First, remove federal direction and let states and localities run vocational education. Second, increase the representation of business in the vocational education state advisory board and reduce the role of general education, which tends to foster an anti-vocational educational orientation. Third, increase the contact between vocational education representatives and the business community by forming local business visiting committees. Har- vard has committees of outsiders who come to visit regularly with its departments, review achievements, and advise on directions to be fol- lowed. Vocational education programs would gain in relevance, reality, clout, and status if local employers would be invited to form committees to regularly advise these programs. Employers, increasingly concerned, might volunteer?especially if they felt their advice would be heeded. To get at the two core issues, however, the growing labor-job mismatch and psychic underpreparation, quite different approaches are necessary. For the mismatch, one must recognize that as a rule it is easier to restructure the job than change the person. Thus, in the new anti-tank Cobra heli- copter, the U.S. Army found that if the guiding mechanism breaks down, it is more efficient to unplug the "black box" and plug in a spare one than to call for, or train, repair personnel. Auto repair shops will benefit once computers start doing much of the diagnostic work, since fewer and fewer mechanics have the needed "insights." New typewriters, linked to processors, are equipped with a memory of the spelling of 50,000 words; if one is misspelled, the screen flashes. Using these may turn out to be more efficient than teaching anyone to spell all these words. Even more 217 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 than before, we need to look at the job-worker match as a two-sided dynamic, without limiting our efforts to suit one to the other, not to make room for self-actualization but to be more cost-effective. As to psychic preparation, "remedial" work is best achieved through surrounding the person with a constructive total environment?not in specialized classes, in which what is gained in class is lost in other en- vironments. Hence, for those who come to work underprepared, the best hope lies in on-the-job training, not in additional schooling, though in many instances some additional schooling is needed before on-the-job training is practical, or must accompany it. In the long run, the pass-the-overload system will need to be reversed. Rather than stacking more and more remedial institutions on top of one another, families and schools will have to do more of their elementary duty: to prepare persons able to function in an adult work world. This is not something that employers can command, but in the renewing Amer- ica?in which the public has come to favor a tax cut for business over one for itself?the concern with our national and economic future may be carried over to a greater attention to the human capital, especially in the psychic formation of the next generation of Americans. It is as nec- essary as fighting inflation and securing investment in capital if economic growth and social stability are to be provided for the future. 218 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 New Work and Education: Socio-Technical Work Theory and School Learning by Arthur G. Wirth In the past several decades, an extensive literature has emerged that has identified a variety of ways in which schools correspond to the needs of the work world. In this paper, I shall argue that the kind of systems efficiency influence from the corporate world that bore down on schools in the 1970s is being challenged by a counter set of factors in the 1980s. The challenges derive from two interrelated changes taking place in work: the emergence of democratic social-technical work theory, which, in turn, is being supported by some forms of high technology. I shall make a brief reference to influences on schools of the systems efficiency rationale. Then I shall examine implications for education of emerging socio-technical work design by turning to theory/practice ex- amples that have emerged from Norwegian Work Research Institutes where socio-technical theory has received its most serious attention. The Scan- dinavian experience may be seen as a model from which Americans might learn if the socio-technical trend already under way in the United States becomes a serious force in the economy. Systems Efficiency and Schools in the 1970s In the past decade, schools have been influenced heavily by the cost- benefit model of systems efficiency theory from industry. Pressures have mounted to treat education as a production function. As C.A. Bowers has pointed out, this has infiltrated the ways that teachers are led to think about their work; they begin to use the restrictive language of technocratic ideology?inputs, outputs, behavioral objectives, competency-based cri- teria, etc. Life in school gets narrowed down to "mastering" measurable components of instruction engineered by outside experts. In Bowers's words: Arthur G. Wirth is a professor of education at the Graduate Institute of Education, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri. This article is based on research for his forthcoming book, Productive Work?In Industry and Schools: Becoming Persons Again, and also appears in modified form in the Fall 1983 issue of The Teachers College Record. 219 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 . . . (The) application of systems theory to the teaching process . . . is likely to transform teaching and learning into a mechanical, positivistically oriented process . . . In effect, it creates an encapsulated technological universe where only technological and management problems are real.' A turn in this direction became the strategy of educational policy makers in the '70s. It was their response to concerns about decreases in produc- tivity that were plaguing both industry and education. While the tendency of educators to seek answers through technocratic efficiency techniques might be understandable, there was also an irony in the move. At the very time when schools were turning toward refined versions of Taylorist control, that model was being declared dysfunctional by growing numbers of thoughtful leaders in industry. They began to entertain the idea that the malaise of people at work might be an outcome of the very technocratic expertise introduced to correct it. They concluded that the old remedy of stepping up supervisory controls over a reluctant work force producing shabby work was no longer viable. They could continue to apply the failed treatment?or try some- thing else. One surprising alternative was to turn to the concept of socio- technical or industrial democracy work design theory. It was based on the peculiar notion that the revitalization of human productivity might depend on a return to the neglected values of democracy under conditions of modern technology. Before delineating features of socio-technical work theory and how it might affect education, I want to comment on several factors in the larger society that have supported this development: (1) the success of American education in producing an "over-educated" work force, and (2) certain trends in high-technology work. American ideology holds that democratization of opportunity is pro- vided by access to public schooling, which opens possibilities of upward mobility and personal satisfaction. The twentieth century, in fact, wit- nessed an impressive expansion of the school system aimed at accom- modating all aspirants seeking better work. Success, however, became a source of trouble. Educational expansion has produced a larger number of educated persons than the economy provides jobs for. There is much evidence that a highly educated work force tends to be more resistant to the authoritarian social relations of the scientific management tradition. The discontents of "over-educated" workers could result in disruption of productivity and capital expansion. Concern about this potential has led to awareness of the need to address disaffection at work. One response has been to increase worker participation by various forms of workplace democracy. In the view of Henry Levin, who wrote the article "Education and Work" for The International Encyclopedia of Education (1983), moves toward greater worker participation and collective decision-making could have profound implications for schools. If the emerging system of pro- duction requires more collaborative, problem-solving human interactions it, in turn, could require school experiments with more liberalizing forms of learning for students and teachers. The conditions begin to arise for a new stage of work/school "correspondence." 220 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 One test of whether there is evidence for the possibility sketched by Levin is to see if it gets any support from developments on the frontier of new work?high-technology production. High Technology and Learning at Work We get a vivid sense of this in Larry Hirschhorn's analysis of the situation in the high-technology nuclear power industry, with events at Three Mile Island as an illustration.2 There is a growing awareness, Hirschhorn says, that cybernetic technology does not replace human work, but leads to workers, technicians, and supervisors actually taking on more complex roles. A basic reason is that inevitable failures of cybernetic processes built into production require a higher order of coping responses. In his analysis of events at the Three Mile Island accident, Hirschhorn identifies lessons we are beginning to learn: "The more complex the machinery, the more complex are the possible varieties of machine failure. There are moments when only human intelligence can diagnose and correct unforeseen breakdowns. To prevent catastrophes, machinery must be de- signed to permit human intervention, and workers must be trained as problem solvers, not merely machine tenders." At Three Mile Island, there was a lack of flexible response to the complicated set of events that unfolded. Multiple failures included poor maintenance, bad design of the console and the control room, error of judgment, and inappropriate training. These "errors," says Hirschhorn, did not derive from failures to operate a machine correctly, but reflected a failure by the engineers and managers to design a system that integrated effectively worker intelligence and technical processes. Analysis of the situation reveals basic contradictions resulting from a conflict between old industrial mind-sets and the actual demands of the new post-industrial production systems. On the one hand, the philosophy and training of engineers leads them to create designs based on the ideal of the regularity and lawfulness of the solar clock. In technical systems, "feedback" controls are designed to cope with predictable errors and failures. Workers are treated as ex- tensions of the mechanical system. The aspiration is to control their actions through training programs and system design so that their responses will be specific and predictable. On the other hand, cybernation is a product of fallible humans. It cannot eliminate errors and, in fact, raises failures to new levels of complexity. Hirschhorn's analysis of the failures at Three Mile Island leads him to conclude that "workers in cybernated systems cannot function as passive machine tenders, looking to instruction manuals for the appropriate response. This suggests an entirely new definition of work in a post-industrial setting. Skills can n6 longer be defined in terms of a particular set of actions, but as general ability to understand how a system functions and to think flexibly in solving problems." In spite of this, Hirschhorn finds that the traditional mind-set of engi- neers and managers makes them reluctant to help workers gain insight into system designs, or to train them to think conceptually beyond lists of responses to a series of anticipated problems. He found that training by utilities at nuclear plants is typically conducted by utility officials or 221 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 vendors who sell training packages to companies. They are technically competent, but their courses are usually geared to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's qualification examinations. The aim is to test competence on routine tasks and familiarity with specific emergency procedures. The aim is not to deepen workers' understanding of the physical, chemical, and system features of the reactor process. The result is a kind of training that ignores requirements for the kind of expanded learning that would equip workers to cope with the unexpected. Even while these mismatches between concepts of training and the new technology continue to happen, there is growing experimentation with alternatives. The general trend in cybernated industries is to locate workers in control rooms where they manage from a distance the manufacturing process. In the chemical industry, for example, continuous "batch pro- cesses" are controlled by microprocessor operations. While not subject to nuclear catastrophe possibilities, failures in the system can become a major cost of production. Workers must not only be prepared to respond to emergencies but also to adapt appropriately to the introduction of new machinery or new products. Some manufacturers are recognizing the need to create designs that permit fruitful interactions between technology and human intelligence. Thus, a Canadian plant that manufactures alcohol which has to be "customized" for use in a variety of things such as soaps, carpets, containers, etc., designed a computer process not simply to au- tomate production but also to supply workers with technical and economic data so that they could solve problems of customizing and could test their own production decisions. Workers who develop a facility for experi- mental decision-making become more knowledgeable and contribute to a constant upgrading of the manufacturing process. Moves in these directions involve a fundamentally different conception of the interactions of workers and machines. Hirschhorn points out that the emerging logic of post-industrial workplaces tends to leave both man- agement and unions in a paradoxical position. Management, to operate and protect the new machinery, needs highly trained workers, trained to think independently; but its traditional interest in control mandates a work force with limited skills and aspirations. There is an uneasiness among some utility owners that moves toward autonomous work teams with highly trained problem-solving skills could become threats to the basic prerogatives of management. Other problems are posed for trade unionists. Traditionally, union sol- idarity has been secured by emphasizing a class division between man- agement and workers. But this tradition is in conflict with the professional character of work transformed by cybernated processes. In fact, unions, to protect workers, need to seek upgrading of competencies and broader worker involvement in plant operation. They need to assure workers' rights to understand the technology that they use. Such moves, which recognize the paraprofessional status of better-educated workers, may further blur the increasingly unclear line between workers and managers. There is fear among union officials that this could lead to erosion of union security. It could also lead, however, to new and different opportunities. There is growing dissatisfaction among engineers, middle managers, and other 222 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 professionals who chafe at being underutilized or being victimized by bureaucratic size and politics. Imaginative unions might become a coun- terpoint to represent all employees, workers and managers, who are seek- ing new perspectives and goals for work life. They might assume leadership of an "oppositional culture" aiming at a new integration of company goals with protection of professional competence and needs for profes- sional growth. Hirschhorn concludes: The logic of the post-industrial workplace may force a radically different con- ception of production work upon both managers and trade unions. Managers may be forced to share real power with their workforce, not for the conventional purpose of improving morale or smoothing industrial relations, but because technological exigencies and market pressures simply demand more knowl- edgeable, autonomous workers. The old-fashioned class politics of industrial society is giving way to a new post-industrial politics, in which representation of worker interests by trade unions will turn on a very different set of issues, such as education and access to information. The implication is clear that, for effective performance in work like that described by Hirschhorn, new modes of learning are needed that move Geyond "training" concepts' of the classical scientific management model. The implication also seems clear that school learning based on narrow technocratic influences from industry will likewise be dysfunctional. As we indicated in the introductory remarks, an alternative concept of work?democratic socio-technical work theory?has been emerging as a vigorous challenger. It is a growing force in the United States, but there is a longer history behind it in Scandinavia. Since we are concerned with linkages between the new work concepts and education, we can benefit by looking at projects developed at the Norwegian Work Research Insti- tutes. They represent the most serious efforts to explore education/"new work" linkages. Socio-Technical Work Theory and Education The contemporary origins of democratic socio-technical work theory may be found in the interrelated work of a variety of thinkers such as Philip G. Herbst, Einar Thorsrud, Fred Emery, and Eric Trist, who, though scattered from Norway to Australia, have been associated with the English Tavistock Institute of Human Relations and the Norwegian Work Research Institutes. American theorists like Louis Davis and Michael Maccoby (influenced by Erich Fromm) have moved in similar directions. A basic insight of socio-technical theory is indicated by the term itself. It holds that the fundamental flaw of the technical efficiency model is the "technical fix error," i.e., the insistence on seeking purely technical solutions in systems that are, in fact, socio-technical. "Socio" refers to the human part?the personal, intentional, creative aspects of human reality. This is not the place to explicate in detail this alternative philosophy of work, which seeks to tap worker involvement as a corrective to the technical-fix error.3 My purpose is different. I work from the assumption that educators must accept the reality that their work will be influenced 223 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 significantly by the master economic institution and the world of work. When technocratic ideology and systems efficiency are unchallenged in industry, schools cannot escape their influence. But what kinds of edu- cational implications might arise if significant sectors of American labor and management bring under question the Taylorist system of work design? What if there is a significant turn to democratic, workplace theory as a means of economic survival? Are there implications for the philosophy and practice of education when the work of teachers and students in schools is viewed from this perspective? Formal writing on the subject is meager. Philip G. Herbst, one of the most creative thinkers of the Norwegian Work Research Institutes, has been the most direct in addressing the question of the relation of socio- technical work philosophy and education. I shall refer to his writing in exploring the question.4 He and his colleagues in the Norwegian Industrial Democracy Project took the position that growing concern about the quality of life at work and the need for democratic alternatives to hierarchical bureaucracies is not merely an aberrant wish of impractical humanitarians. It is rooted in fundamental changes in man's relationship to his environment. The bu- reaucratic model worked when man's fundamental relation to his world was the physical environment and the technology he developed to act on it. The environment could be conceptualized as an aggregate or cluster of elements that could be manipulated for human gain. Classical economic and management theory incorporated humans as constituent elements of the aggregate. The socio-technical theorists maintain that we are entering a new stage marked by the emergence of a turbulent environment. The source of the turbulence lies in the shift from a situation where the physical environment and technology functioned as the medium for the relation of man to man. This derives from man's own conceptualizing, which confronts humans with rapid, profound, often unpredictable change. "The turbulent envi- ronment is man himself and efforts to solve turbulent type problems with procedures based on principles of the mechanistic, aggregate model in- creasingly break down." Norwegian work redesign in areas like the new high-technology mer- chant marine is based on the assumption that the rate of change in tech- nological design increases so that it has now become necessary to build learning capacities into the organization of industrial work teams. Herbst and colleagues decided that this can be achieved only by creating relatively autonomous matrix organizations in which neither task roles nor work relationships are fixed. Within this framework, work teams of persons engaged in on-going learning become capable of doing reseach both to find ways to improve production and to develop strategies for coping with changes in tasks. Linkages are established with university and other re- search units. In the new Norwegian Merchant Marine, there was a growing recog- nition that the sophisticated computerized technology of new ships was not amenable to old-style organization of ship personnel. There is a steady flow of newness in equipment and operations, which requires crews ca- 224 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 pable of ongoing learning and collaborative trouble-shooting. It cannot be met by organizational systems in which relations are impersonal, inflex- ible, and unstable due to rapid turnover. To try to retain the old organizational forms seemed irrational, and Norwegian leaders also were increasingly dissatisfied with the disjunctions between the democratic values and relations in community life and the authoritarian traditions aboard ships. The basic decision was to experiment with alternatives to hierarchy so that Norwegian ships would become more democratic places in which to live and work. These developments, in Herbst's view, point toward the possibility of a new emerging post-in- dustrial work model for some significant portion of the population: A society in which there will be relatively little difference in the educational level and status of those who work in industrial, educational, research, and service organizations. Persons will differ more as regards their focus of ori- entation than as regards the nature of their work. The leading elements in the transitional stage of development are the rapid increase and diffusion of complex technologies which can be operated by a small number of persons, and the rapid increase and diffusion of higher education . . . As development continues, the traditional hierarchical type of organization based on the separation of doing, planning and deciding will be replaced by primary work groups in which these functions are integrated. The members of these groups will to an increasing degree be able to participate in policy decisions and be capable of using spe- cialists as consultants. In Socio-Technical Design: Strategies in Multidisciplinary Research, Herbst devotes attention to the implications of "new work" philosophy for educational organizations. The assumption is that constant technolog- ical and social innovation is the dominant reality with which institutions must cope. The need grows to create educational organizations that can equip persons to adapt to indeterminate change. Educational institutions themselves experience turbulent change due to rapid growth in knowledge and shifts in expectations of their clienteles. Herbst's premise is that the possibility for creating educational orga- nizations appropriate for any era depends on the model used for structuring educational tasks. He makes a socio-didactic analysis of the basic as- sumptions that have been built into twentieth-century schools and finds that educational tasks have been structured on a simple "production- process model" paralleling the organizational features of the traditional factories. They have not yet responded to the learning characteristics of the new work world, which is still very much in the minority. To clarify his thesis, Herbst differentiates two fundamentally different types of work tasks: determinate tasks and indeterminate tasks. Deter- minate tasks are those where every element is specifiable and the outcome is predictable. (The manufacture of Model T Fords would be an example.) Regarding indeterminate tasks, Herbst identifies three varieties, which progressively become more indeterminate: 1. There may be a given initial situation and a required outcome and the indeterminate factor is the means to use to get from the initial state to the outcome. For example, the engine room of a ship (now full of sophisticated technology) may need to be cleaned. The means may be left 225 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 undetermined if the crew is permitted to create its own task force, which will take initiative in reaching the goal. In this case, it becomes a research- type task. On the other hand, if the methods are prescribed in detail and executed under bureaucratic scrutiny, the work has remained as a pro- duction-type determinate task. 2. We may have a task where new material is given, and the two indeterminate tasks become "what can we do with it?" (end product) and "how can we use it?" (means). For example, if a school gets a micro- computer, the staff might be brought into the thinking about what ends to use it for and how to use it. 3. Finally there is the fully indeterminate task where no element can be fully specified at the outset: This is the type of task that increasingly emerges with advanced technology. For example, in the case of the Nor- wegian merchant marine, as changing computer-oriented technology trans- formed the nature of the ships, the old production-type model increasingly became dysfunctional. New training programs could not be implemented before technological changes upset the planned design. The new type of ship emerging required flexible, multiple-skill trained personnel who could identify the problems and form themselves into flexible autonomous matrix groups to help the ship perform its mission. All workers who participate in this kind of indeterminate work task are actively engaged in a learning process. We can understand why the socio-technical work theorists repeatedly refer to Jean Piaget's To Understand Is to Invent. Those who are at work in indeterminate-type tasks cannot be people who know only the discrete steps of a manual or workbook. They have to understand the whole system in terms of the interrelation of the parts. A basic point in Herbst's socio-didactic analysis is that the way school tasks are structured affects all aspects of the dynamics of school life. The basic distinction is between production-type tasks and research project- type tasks. He quotes the findings of Dutch researchers (1969) who showed that students spot with high consistency the difference between production- type "schoolish" teachers and "non-schoolish" research-project oriented teachers. Herbst says that the production-type teacher ? . . splits his subject into small isolated bits, which have to be worked on and learnt one at a time. Students are required to follow rigid instructions. The performance of students, both in terms of following instructions and in terms of the results obtained, is judged simply as right or wrong. The teacher claims complete autonomy for himself as an expert, while allowing little or no auton- omy to his pupils. Subjects that especially lend themselves to being taught in this manner are mathematics and foreign languages. A machine teaching pro- gramme is an extreme example of this type of teaching technique. Research-project type teachers . . . give their students autonomy to investigate, discuss, and find out for themselves. The teacher defines his role as a resource person for the activities of his students. . . . Where drill is needed, the purpose and meaning are ex- plained. Judgment of performance is not simply in terms of right or wrong, but in terms of the development of increased ability, competence, and independence. 226 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The "production-type" teacher aims to have his students follow in- structions and to perform precisely a predetermined program. Original ideas of students are seen as non-compliant behavior, so curious students are often forced to choose between being passive or being seen as rebel- lious. This type of school organization fulfilled its function to produce human beings who were attached to traditional production processes and who were to subordinate themselves to the control of managerial authority. It also produced alienation from school tasks. On the basis of his analysis, Herbst sees growing discrepancies between the task definitions in schools and the task definitions in industries under turbulent change. Secondary schools typically are organized around sep- arate subjects. The research problem-oriented tasks of higher-technology industry do not split up the field of knowledge in the same way as the school subjects, and they require a type of organization based on coop- eration rather than on competition. "Many types of problem encountered on the shop floor, in a hospital, or in a family require an understanding of social-psychological, economic, technological and political aspects and their inter-relationships." A major project of the Norwegian Work Research Institute was a 10- year study of progressive changes in the design of work on the ship Balao .5 As Norwegians on the Balao began to work more and more in the "in- determinate research learning" style rather than the traditional "produc- tion task" mode, they discovered they had to turn attention to the schools that were training personnel for the merchant marine. They found that the schools and teachers who were not in touch with the new developments were becoming isolated from maritime reality. The younger personnel were losing respect for out-of-date teachers and programs. A decision was made to bring teachers aboard the ships. Teachers were integrated into the work process itself, which gave them a sense of being on the frontiers of learning and enabled them to communicate as equals with ship's per- sonnel who were working in the autonomous, matrix task force mode. Teachers, however, also taught classes in their specialized skill areas, which were valued as components of an integrated training program. When teachers returned to their schools on shore, they began to introduce prob- lem-oriented projects consistent with the emerging learning style they had seen on ships. Later I was able to visit a secondary school in Stavanger that was pointed out to me by the merchant marine researchers as a place exemplifying moves in the new direction. It has established working relations with the Jonas Oegland plant, which produces bicycles and industrial robots. This plant has moved in the direction of shop-floor democracy, with autono- mous work group teams. Major changes were introduced in the modes of production and quality control, with workers taking over functions of managers and supervisors. At the school, I observed classes in electronics where students were working on project problems that had been identified in consultation with factory work groups. For example, several students were working on a problem from the industrial robot division. Teachers, students, and factory representatives jointly planned strategies and evaluation procedures. A 227 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 school steering group was created, composed of elected pupils and teachers and representatives of work groups from industry. The steering committee will allocate study projects into several courses 'of study: electronics, calibration, physics, etc. Beyond this, the director explained that Norwegian education officials and representatives of collaborating industries are developing a plan for a postgraduate thesis program that can be completed by people who have entered industry. A practical or theoretical industrial problem will be identified by a candidate. His plan for thesis research will be placed under the supervision of the head of the appropriate department (for example, a department of professional engineers), and there will be consultation with appropriate personnel in the university. If the thesis is well executed, the candidate will be assisted in entering advanced training in a university. The director saw these developments as giving continued encouragement to students who like research-type learning. He said that places like the Oegland Plant industry begin to be a learning place for both workers and management?and move in the direction of the label described by Herbst where "everyone ought to be a researcher." Industries of this type have to become capable of "learning" to meet change. In order for students to be adequately prepared for entrance to such places, the young should learn in schools that also are capable of "learning as institutions." Ironically, many schools whose programs are rigidly prescribed by centralized authority have less capacity for "learn- ing" than some of the newer workplaces. Teachers and administrators are worn out by keeping the system running, by being made subordinate to prescriptions of external authorities, and by having to keep tabs on re- luctant charges. Herbst calls for more autonomy for individual schools, with meaningful roles for some representative committees like the Steering Committee of the Viderengaende Skole in Stavanger. Centralized boards of education would still have system-wide responsibilities but their consultative, fa- cilitative roles would rise sharply in importance and their prescriptive, control functions would diminish. Pride would be taken in fostering schools skilled in getting students and teachers involved in personal learnings that relate to the changing social reality. In Herbst's view, this does not mean that all "schoolish" type teaching, is bad. There are needs for systematic specialized learning experiences. One of the avenues to be explored seriously in the 1980s will be to see how many of these can be programmed into computer-assisted instruction. That dimension is a necessary complement to the "research-project, non- schoolish methods" that now need to be expanded. The Norway example illustrates the following: When people start down the socio-technical road, questions about the nature of learning and school- ing tend to be raised. If "new work" requires the empowering of people to learn reflectively and to act based on that learning (features of the liberalizing ideal), then continuities are needed between "new work" and schooling. The notion arises that the kind of learning that needs to be supported in both institutions is the liberal "freeing of intelligence" type learning. 228 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: .7,1A-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 If we seek ideas about how to make schools centers of liberalizing learning, we might turn to these new workplaces for useful clues. The question of what conditions support the freeing of intelligence (or what thwarts it) can be pursued productively both within schools as workplaces and within workplaces themselves. Herbst himself defends the idea that this work theory has significant implications for societal transformation at the broadest level. He sees the possibility of a transition between a late-industrial stage and a potentially less destructive post-industrial era. Socio-technical work design is seen as a "leading edge" toward the forming of a social order based on the principle that productive development depends on human conservation or "well-faring" of all. Herbst uses the concept "world model" to compare present social features with a possibly emerging alternative.6 In the late industrial (or "modernist") model, the significant challenges seen as problematic for survival are located in the properties of the en- vironment. The fundamental characteristic of the environment is that it is a cluster or aggregate of elements. This is the model in terms of which classical science built its theories of universal determinist laws. Armed with the tools of science, man stands apart from the environment and against it. This results in a basic contradiction in his condition. In the active mode, standing godlike outside the world, man controls, masters, and subjugates the environment. In the passive mode, it is the environment that shapes, governs, and determines his behavior. The orientation of a science that is atomistic, mechanistic, and deter- ministic, which permitted mastery of the environment, also provided the conceptual base for the creation of bureaucratic organizations based on the principle of uniform replaceable parts. When "fixing" is needed, one turns to the engineering expert who provides the thinking required "to restore efficiency." Others follow orders. The pathologies of this model emerge, Herbst wryly observes, "when man begins to treat man as part of the physical environment. In the active mode he perceives and masters others as objects. In the passive mode he experiences himself as object, as a cog in the machinery." In this engi- neer's view of the world, "the function of insight and understanding is no longer a liberating one but the pragmatic one of meeting the challenge of the environment." But the organizational patterns designed to increase control are them- selves increasingly marked by unruly complexity, size, and dysfunctional change that becomes increasingly repugnant and unacceptable to humans. The principles of hierarchical bureaucratic control no longer provide the conceptual base for understanding the problems of the present turbulent environment. "This is because the behavior of man, the relationship of man to man, and the social ecologies that have come into being do not conform to the universal and immutable principles of classical science." The capacity to deal successfully with this order of change depends now on building a human choice-making capacity into the system itself. The Taylorist tradition based on the separation of doing and thinking becomes increasingly inappropriate and is replaced by work groups in which these functions are integrated. "The members of these groups will 229 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17 : IA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 to an increasing degree be able to participate in policy decisions and be capable of using specialists as consultants." The shift, then, is from a feeling of alienation to a feeling of autonomy. The "well-faring world model" requires a kind of science of man that is not ethically neutral but has a responsibility to determine the choice of technologies that support the learning and growth of all persons in the system. According to Herbst, the shift to the new world model requires the capacity and opportunity to participate in "research style" inquiry type learning. This requires the values that John Dewey said are essential to engage in scientific inquiry?values of individuality and community. A forerunner of work of this type may be seen in some high-technology work processes where a relatively small number of well-educated workers need to respond to random unpredictable events. Herbst himself, however, argues that high technology itself is not a guarantee of humanistic reform. Computer technology, for example, may be designed to bring closer the goal of complete, rational machine control that requires no human participation or intervention. "It is possible that god-like mysterious power will be projected upon computer programs, to which effective decision-making authority will be transferred and which may for a time permit the survival of centralized hierarchical organiza- tions." Herbst and colleagues simply point to the waste that results when human capacities are unutilized; and that technical and social health can be re- stored when people are "brought in" as whole human beings?as dem- onstrated with low-skilled workers in assembly plants as well as people in high-technology industries. These may be seen as "leading edge" examples of a well-faring world model where ethical choices about uses of technology and social relations are made for sane social and personal development. No one knows if they are aberrants or forerunners. They are beginning to appear, however, in the master institution. They might function as laboratories where growing numbers of people begin to raise questions about the quality of life under technology. My personal conviction is that democratidecological.third ways beyond main-line capitalist and state socialist systems need to be created. Producer cooperatives of the type developed in Mondragon Basque communities in Spain provide one promising example. We should seize the chance, how- ever, to find out if working through corporate structures with the values of socio-technical, democratic work theory can become one serious source for effecting liberating social change. Footnotes 1. C.A. Bowers, "Emergent Ideological Characteristics of Educational Policy," Teachers College Record, Vol. 79, No. 1, September 1977, p. 50. 2. Larry Hirschhorn, "The Soul of a New Worker," Working Papers Magazine, Vol. 9, No. 1, January/February, 1982, pp. 42-47. 3. Arthur G. Wirth, Productive Work?In Industry and Schools: Becoming Persons Again (Washington, D.C.: University Press of America, 1983). 4. Philip G. Herbst, Socio Technical Design (London: Tavistock Publications, 1974), and Alternatives to Hierarchy, (Leiden: Martinus Nyhoff, 1976). 230 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 5. Ragnar Johansen, "Democratizing Work and Social Life on Board M. S. Ba- lao," Report of Ship Research Group, Work Research Institute, Oslo, Norway, 1979. Supplemented by interviews with Mr. Johansen, Oslo, May 14, 1980. 6. For an elaboration, see Fred E. Emery and Eric L. Trist, Towards a Social Ecology (New York: Plenum/Rosetta, 1973). 231 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Getting Ready for the Next Industrial Revolution by James O'Toole The Japanese have finally gone and done it. They've built a factory in which, untouched by human hands, robots make robots. From the initial delivery of parts and materials, through the stages of cutting, grinding, molding, casting, welding, assembling, painting, and packaging, to the final warehousing of the finished product, machines do all the work. The "offspring" of this process are now being installed in American factories where they soon will be making cars, tractors, jet planes, and nearly every other manufactured product currently made by the hands of men and women. In the near future, automation will start even prior to the man- ufacturing stage of 'production: miraculous computers are now capable of actually designing products and then "sending orders" to robots on the shop floor telling them what to make and how to make it. Revolutionary changes of this magnitude always entail a mixture of blessings and curses. For example, the nineteenth century industrial rev- olution ultimately led to the great advances in living standards, social equality, and democracy enjoyed today in Europe and North America. But along the way a heavy price was paid as workers were exploited, traditional community values were destroyed, and Dickensian slums were created. From what we can tell, America is on the verge of a second industrial revolution made possible?indeed, compelled?by the com- puter in its many manifestations. Like its predecessor, the next revolution will have both benefits and costs. The benefits to the nation promise to be impressive. The advances in productivity provided by the new technologies are likely to increase Amer- ica's standard of living, make the economy less inflation-prone, and, perhaps, make our industry once again competitive in world markets. On the personal level, machines will relieve humans of almost all dirty, dangerous, strenuous, menial, and repetitive tasks. In factories of the future, the only human workers will be engaged in installing, program- ming, monitoring, and repairing the robots that will do all the direct labor. James O'Toole is a professor of management at the University of Southern California's Graduate School of Business Administration, Los Angeles, California. This article is reprinted by permission from National Forum: The Phi Kappa Phi Journal, Vol. No. 1, pp. 16-18. 232 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 In offices of the future, word processors, intelligent copiers, and automated information systems will eliminate such drudge work as filing and ste- nography?and probably do away with the rote work of the typing pool. Already, such diverse workers as farmers, lawyers, accountants, nurses, journalists, managers, technicians, teachers, postal employees, auto me- chanics, retail clerks, real estate agents, and military and police officers are finding subtle alterations in their jobs thanks to the new computer- based technologies. In the future, such changes will be profound and, in' most cases, beneficial. The office worker who once used only lower-level skills to sort, copy, and file will soon have access to information that formerly was the purview of managers only. The secretary of the future will hence be able to use her higher-level analytical and reasoning skills to make challenging de- cisions. Similarly, the industrial worker, who now uses her lower-level abilities to drag parts around and feed them into a machine, will soon have access to managerial information?and, hence, the ability to engage in tough and interesting problem solving along with her supervisor. In effect, the new technologies blur the invidious distinctions between the secretary and the boss and between the blue- and white-collar worker. This presents tremendous opportunities to those office and factory workers who are prepared by experience and education to accept increased re- sponsibilities. Unfortunately, this general upgrading of jobs comes with a negative side: the new technologies are beginning to erode the already poor em- ployment prospects of the disadvantaged. While the coming wave of automation probably will not reduce the total number of jobs, it will decrease dramatically the number of lower-level jobs that typically go to the least-educated workers. Unskilled and semi-skilled industrial workers, clerks and typists in offices, and even service workers who do routine tasks will all see their jobs eliminated as sure as humans make little green Apple computers. Everywhere one looks there are signs of oncoming job losses: In an aircraft factory, labor that once required the efforts of 12 men is now done by a robot and one man monitoring its performance; in an auto corporation, work that once took a draftsman three weeks is now done in a day by an engineer with the aid of a computer; in an insurance office, letters that were once typed by a secretary are now entered directly into a computer by the boss himself, and sent electronically to other managers. Even in relatively high-technology industries, the impact of the miraculous new machines is being felt: the introduction of the computer to the telephone and telecommunications industries has eliminated some 100,000 jobs. In workplaces around the country, hundreds of thousands of people are being made redundant by automation. If current trends continue, the already-high levels of unemployment among the unskilled, the disadvantaged, and factory workers will rise to depression levels in the years ahead. This forthcoming revolution is not a matter of if, it is quite simply a question of when. While the current prolonged recession has slowed the introduction of the new technologies, it has not altered industry's long- range automation plans. For example, before the recession, General Mo- 233 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 tors had planned to be as fully automated as its Japanese competitors by the end of the 1980s. That date has been set back because of GM's inability to raise the capital needed for expensive robots. But as soon as the economy turns around and capital starts flowing again into corporate coffers, GM and every other industrial giant is planning to convert its cash into new machines?not into hiring new workers. These are not idle plans. Nor are the changes that are soon to occur the mere fantasies of dreamy futurists: they are real. Moreover, the coming industrial transformation promises not only quantitative but qualitative change. Indeed, the very nature of the economy is already being altered. As the power of computer technologies has increased exponentially by over 25% annually since the mid-1960s, and the cost of computer capa- bility has fallen while the cost of labor has risen, the curtain has been lowering on the industrial age. For example, half of the U.S. work force is currently engaged in information work: the processing and manipulation of words, data, and ideas. The future promises more such changes. In vanguard post-industrial cities like Los Angeles, something like three- quarters of all advertised job openings are for information workers. In factories, we find the obverse of these white-collar trends. General Elec- tric, for instance, has built a factory in which one enormous locomotive engine frame is produced daily in a process that involves no production workers at all. The plant replaces one that employed 68 workers who produced only one such frame every 16 days. The difference in the rate of productivity between the old and new plants is staggering; the resulting loss of employment alarming. Over the next decade, automation will reduce the total number of manufacturing jobs in the economy by 25- 50% (the rate will depend on the speed of economic recovery). In order to save the remaining jobs of the least-educated industrial workers, union and minority leaders will be tempted to call for limitations on the introduction of new technologies and on the closing of outmoded plants. Already, the International Association of Machinists is proposing a "Technology Bill of Rights" to protect displaced workers. But Luddite movements never succeed. Automation brings too many benefits to too many people to be denied. On this score, history is always cruel to the few for the good of the many. But there is no reason why we need stand by helplessly and watch our most vulnerable citizens victimized by the onrush of technological prog- ress. The only policy that can protect them in the long run is to begin educating them so that they will be prepared to enjoy the fruits of the second industrial revolution. The years to come will see tremendous de- mand for knowledge and information workers: analysts, engineers, sci- entists, technicians, managers, and the like. Unfortunately, America is failing to educate an entire class of citizens to realize these occupational opportunities. In the current system, general, basic, liberal educations are provided to the children of the privileged, who then are able to pursue advanced, specialized education in preparation for good jobs. In contrast, narrow vocational education is given to the children of the disadvantaged, who then enter the kinds of jobs that technology is eliminating. This system has always been undemocratic and unjust?now it is becoming econom- 234 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 ically untenable as well. The only hope for the disadvantaged is for them to learn to read, write, and compute so that they can then acquire the skills needed for the jobs of the future. Soon there will only be work for those who have the skills of speaking, listening, observing, and measuring, and the confidence to use their minds to analyze and solve problems. Those who will succeed in the work force will be those who have learned how to learn?the unthinking jobs all will be done by machines. The French have anticipated this phenomenon. They have remade their once class-segregated educa- tional system into a single-track in which all children now receive the same basic liberal education that was, until recently, preserved for only a privileged few. This new system complements a national effort to be in the forefront of the computer revolution. The Japanese, too, have anticipated the age of automation. Recently, they have outpaced us in providing high levels of basic education to all their children and youth. Consequently, Japanese workers and unions welcome the introduction of labor-saving technology. Unlike Americans, the well-educated Japanese workers are able to be rapidly retrained for better jobs when their current jobs are automated. Domestically, we seem to be moving in the opposite direction, compounding the undesirable side effects of automation. For example, there are now misguided calls for increased high school vocational training of industrial workers. (We never seem to learn: after the Watts riots, the federal government trained young, black Angelenos to be elevator operators?oblivious, as late as 1967, to the inevitable dominance of the automatic elevator.) Vocationalists go wrong, in part, because they cling to an outmoded assumption that the typical worker is, and will continue to be, a lathe operator (or some other factory or manual laborer). While the assembly- line worker was the representative employee of the industrial revolution, Drexel University's Arthur Shostak suggests that the air controller is the prototypical worker of the future. Unlike factory workers of the past who worked mainly with their hands, air controllers (and similar nonprofes- sional controllers of machines in factories and power plants), work with their minds. Their computer-based jobs are highly sophisticated, critical to the safety of their enterprises and the public, directly affect productivity, and are indispensable (one can't get machines to make human judgments about other machines). Thus, the worker of the future is not the manual laborer of the vocationalist's imagination, but a "data communicator" with heavy responsibilities?both technical and moral?that require the judgment and analytical skills that are characteristic of the broadly edu- cated person. Perversely, calls for outdated, vocational training often come from liberals and leaders of minority communities. There seems to be an un- spoken conviction among many in these groups that black and brown children can't handle the same educational challenges as whites, and that many nonwhites are uneducable for good jobs. These assumptions over- look evidence coming from the few inner-city schools lucky enough to have teachers and principals who refuse to let students cop out of learning with the excuse that they are disadvantaged. Where teachers demonstrate high expectations of their students, poor nonwhites respond to educational 235 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 challenge as well as do their suburban, white counterparts. Once they have the confidence that they can learn?and are provided with a sound, basic educational curriculum?minority students quickly form appropriate habits of study and work and develop the language and numerical skills needed in all jobs in the second industrial revolution. Fortunately, such a curriculum has come along at exactly the moment it was needed: The Paideia Proposal by Mortimer Adler and his colleagues outlines exactly the form of education that can prepare disadvantaged and advantaged students alike for life and work in a technologically advanced society. What educators must avoid is overreaction. For example, in California, Governor Edmund Brown, Jr., has called for the remaking of all education into high-tech education. In schools across the state, administrators and principals are directing every spare nickel into computers and software. In a trendy rush to be on the cutting edge of the latest social movement, California's politicians and school administrators are overlooking the fact that computers are tools?albeit powerful tools?but merely tools none- theless. While students must be trained at an early age to make full use of these tools, it must be remembered that computers are means, not ends. Computers are no substitute for sound, basic educational preparation for life's many activities and roles: work, leisure, family, citizenship, and lifelong learning. Certainly, there should be a place for a computer in every classroom, as there will be a computer in every aspect of life in the future. Still, the computer must be kept in its proper place. In California, unfortunately, some schools have let the computer drive the educational process. For example, the vocational preparation of computer program- mers has been pushed at the expense of liberal learning. Ironically, this has occurred just as self-programming computers are being developed. This is no better than training elevator operators. Caveat: I have not addressed a related and potentially tragic issue. America has not come to grips with the shorter-term problem of finding work for the many 40- and 50-year-olds whose jobs are being decimated by automation. Hundreds of thousands of factory workers in the auto, steel, and rubber industries of the Northeast and Midwest may never again know gainful employment?most certainly not employment at the high pay they once received. These semiliterate men and women?people who never learned the skills of lifelong learning when they were young? cannot readily be retrained to work in the new semiconductor industries or in jobs in computer maintenance, monitoring, or programming. Unless government and industry can find imaginative ways to retrain, even to educate, these people, they will face bleak life prospects. And society will face the terrible burden of an angry and dispossessed working class. More and better education for all is the only policy that can prevent terrible social consequences from accompanying the introduction of the new technologies. Either America must begin now to educate the disad- vantaged in the manner it educates the privileged, or expect a nightmare future. For the social consequences of millions of unemployed workers could make the side effects of the first industrial revolution appear benign in comparison. Fortunately, such consequences for our youth, at least, are not predetermined. They can be avoided if America acts now to make the reform of elementary and secondary education a high social priority. 236 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Current Models for the Future Education of Workers by Sharon Rubin and Amy Thomas As we consider work in the future, it's necessary for us to think about the education of future workers as well. The challenge is substantial. There will be huge numbers of new workers, including more women and minorities than ever before. They'll be doing new work, serving an in- formation society. Both large corporations and small businesses will have new needs as they manage technological change, prepare new employees, keep workers from becoming obsolescent, and retrain them frequently. Wprkers will change careers more often and enter and leave the work force and educational institutions more frequently. How will higher ed- ucation respond to these challenges? As we look at present higher education, we see patterns surprisingly like those of 20 and 30 years ago. Although adults are returning to school for training or personal development in record numbers, most colleges still don't accommodate adults with ease. For every college that gives credit for life and work experience, another treats old transfer credits as if they were carriers of contagious diseases. For every course a major university offers in a distant part of the state on weekends, a dozen colleges continue to offer courses in three one-hour segments per week during the middle of the day. Corporations, frustrated by the inability of colleges to respond to their needs, develop more and more specialized training courses, but for every company that creates new in-house training, another cuts the training budget immediately when the bottom line is unhealthy. For every company that encourages employees to develop their abilities by taking college courses, another reimburses by the grade, discouraging employees from taking the truly rigorous or challenging courses. If the general outlook for future-oriented worker education is gloomy, that gloom is not unrelieved. There are presently a number of programs that bring colleges and businesses together in ways that anticipate future trends, that use resources wisely, and that fill the needs of businesses and employees while supporting the mission of higher education, as well. ? These programs provide models that can be used as they are or readily revised for new circumstances. The workers whose numbers will be increasing in the future?females, Hispanics, blacks, older workers?are those who have traditionally not Sharon Rubin is director, Experiential Learning Programs, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland. Amy Thomas is a research associate at Experiential Learning Programs. 237 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 been trained to enable them to pursue careers in technical fields. Three programs have found innovative ways to prepare such workers. Evergreen Valley College, in San Jose, California, began its Transition into Electronics program to give displaced homemakers, the disadvan- taged, and reentry students both exposure to technical industries and the confidence that they can be workers in such fields. The 10-week program, initially funded through the Displaced Home- makers Act, combines classroom instruction with experiential learning, a curriculum geared to help each student make "realistic and knowledgeable career decisions."' The hands-on training includes constructing a tran- sistor radio. Students report that this experience helps them "overcome their anxiety and fear of working with machines, tools, and other things technically-related." Other experiential learning includes a number of plant tours, so students can see different actual work environments. Class- room instruction is provided by "role model" instructors, many of them women employed in area industries. Students report that such instructors have had a major impact on them in creating an awareness of different occupations where they can "fit in." Most of the students who enter the Transition into Electronics program are not already students at the college, but many decide, after completing the course, to become regular full-time or part-time students, continuing studies in electronics, data processing, electronics drafting, and engi- neering technology. Women are rapidly becoming the largest population of new workers. Chase Econometrics estimates that, by 1990, 70% of working-age women will be in the work force.' Although women are entering the work force in record numbers, they are still concentrated in low-paying, low-skill jobs. Full-time employment responsibilities, in addition to family respon- sibilities, often prevent women from pursuing the extra education and training they need for job advancement. The banking industry can serve as a model to study the difficulties of advancement for women in the business world. The National Association of Bank Women, an organization of women banking executives, conducted a study of its membership in 1972 and found that only 12% of the members had college degrees. This lack of educational credentials affected both the women's immediate positions as bank professionals and their prospects for future promotion. For instance, because of lack of education, women bank workers were primarily in the personnel, operations, and retail side of banking, but the line to senior management tends to be in the more technical commercial and lending areas. NABW decided to develop an undergraduate management degree pro- gram to provide its members with the financial, analytic, and problem- solving skills they needed for promotion. NABW's original proposal, developed with Simmons College, Boston, was funded by the Carnegie Corporation in 1974. The NABW/Simmons program has been so suc- cessful that NABW decided to expand the program, and it is now offered at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge and Mundelein College in Chicago as well. 238 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: .7,1A-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The program is geared to the full-time banking worker, who can earn a bachelor's degree in management in three to five years without quitting work. Students attend six Management Institutes, two two-week sessions for each three years. The Institutes are designed to provide the student with in-depth instruction in the structural and behavioral aspects of finance, accounting and control, operations management, and marketing.3 By com- pleting the Institutes, the student earns between 36 and 42 credits; the remaining credit hours are earned in liberal arts and business-related courses, which vary by institution, and by credit for prior work and life experience. Both bankers and banking institutions have acknowledged the program's immediate benefits. Women who complete the NABW program comment that the knowledge and experience gained are useful immediately to their current jobs. Over 85% of the program's participants have received pro- motions since first enrolling in the program. Sponsoring banks have wit- nessed increases in participants' productivity, professionalism, job satisfaction, and commitment to their banks. Although employment opportunities have improved for minorities in fields traditionally closed to them, many obstacles remain. The number of minority executives has shrunk since the mid-1970s, despite efforts from major corporations to recruit minorities into management. This prob- lem extends from the executive suite to the university classroom, where there continues to be low minority enrollment in undergraduate and grad- uate business programs.4 The Leadership Education and Development program (LEAD), estab- lished in 1980, is a national effort to increase the number of minority students in business schools and the business world. The program exposes high school minority student leaders to educational and career opportun- ities and to role models available to them through special summer pro- grams. Talented minority high school juniors and seniors participate in four- week intensive business and management curricula at LEAD-cooperating universities. The students are then monitored throughout their undergrad- uate careers and are encouraged to pursue liberal arts degrees, followed by professional business programs. The students' role-model exposure extends beyond the classroom into the business world itself. All students participate in three-year part-time internships with the companies of their choice. At the end of each student's third year of undergraduate study, LEAD will assess the student's progress and plan a program of "upward mobility. "5 LEAD, which started in 1980 at the University of Pennsylvania's Whar- ton School of Finance, has spread to Northwestern University, the Uni- versity of Michigan, Columbia University, and the University of Maryland, which has a joint program with Howard University. By 1985, the program will operate in 10 major business schools. These three models are different in intent and scope, yet they each have major implications for the successful integration of new populations of workers into the labor force. 239 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: .CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 As a result of the speed with which the United States is turning into a service economy, many companies have developed programs to upgrade their employees' abilities as effective service workers. Their definitions of "effective," however, have varied by both industry and philosophy. INA, one of the nation's largest financial services organizations, with worldwide operations in property-casualty insurance, life insurance, em- ployee benefits, health care, and investment management, has identified the liberal arts as the basis for giving employees organizing, planning, decision-making, and creative skills, along with leadership, oral com- munication, and interpersonal abilities.6 As Ralph S. Saul, INA chairman has noted, Education in the liberal arts plays an important role in developing managers. It provides a vital perspective on the interrelationship and growing complexity of business and society. As a multinational company doing business in 145 countries around the globe, INA recognizes the need to understand not only our own business, but also the diverse and complex social, political, economic and cultural environments we work in. It is no longer enough for managers to be well trained; they must be well educated. The demands of business and society require them to explore and act on dynamic and wholly new concepts that accept no traditional solutions. For that they will need to know the best that has been thought and said by generations before them, and that is the benefit of a liberal arts education for business decision makers and leaders. Other companies having philosophies similar to INA's often introduce top executives to the liberal arts through special summer programs, such as those at Amherst or Williams. INA, however, has imagined liberal arts eduction in a much broader context. With the University of Pennsylvania, INA has developed a liberal arts degree program that makes attending school as attractive and convenient as possible for INA employees. For instance, all courses are held at INA headquarters from 4:30 to 7:10 in the evening. A complete selection of liberal arts courses leading to a degree with a major in the social sciences is offered with regular University of Pennsylvania faculty. Courses are tuition-free to qualified students, and INA pays all tuition bills in advance of each semester. A full-time co- ordinator is available to help employees discuss their educational plans, to facilitate application to the University of Pennsylvania, and to provide information and counseling to students. Although the program was originally intended for employees of any level seeking to enhance their liberal arts backgrounds, the program has been most attractive to clerical personnel who do not already have college degrees and who see the program as a route to long-term mobility within INA, as well as a chance for personal enhancement. INA is now consid- ering graduate courses to give professional staff and middle managers motivation to develop their liberal arts competences, too. Companies wanting to improve their employees' service abilities often sponsor short-term training or even offer college courses specifically linked to job performance. INA feels it has taken a truly future-oriented step by investing instead in an on-site baccalaureate program in the liberal arts. 240 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Although shifts in the economy are gradual in some fields, in others they are more drastic. A typical case of major change occurred at Western Electric's Columbus Works, due to the restructuring of the Bell System. Plant operations were being switched from production of electro-mechan- ical systems to computer-based systems, and heavy layoffs occurred. A work force of 6,500 was reduced to 3,000. Even remaining employees were not immediately transferable to newly-designed positions, and most were told that they had to become computer-literate if they were to keep their jobs. ? Franklin University had been working with Western Electric since 1978, when the Western Electric employee development club had approached Franklin to ask them to offer business administration courses. It was therefore natural that Western Electric should again come to Franklin for help. The first orientation meeting that Franklin:arranged for Western Electric employees drew 125 people. Although Western Electric had planned the program for some of its technical and engineering employees, the majority of emplqyees at the orientation were regular production line employees who did not have the mathematics skills to take the college-level math- ematics prerequisites for computer science courses.7 Although Franklin and Western Electric could have restricted the pro- gram to those few employees who had the background necessary to begin programming courses, Western Electric made the decision to open the program to all its employees and Franklin quickly restructured the program to offer re-entry mathematics to interested employees. In the summer of 1982, the program began with over 30 employees enrolled in on-site remedial mathematics and over 30 employees enrolled in on-site introduction-to-algebra courses. In addition, technical employees who did have good mathematics skills were enrolled in a computer pro- gramming course on the Franklin campus. Although there is nothing particularly unusual about universities offer- ing courses at company sites, both Western Electric's willingness to retrain rather than replace, and Franklin's willingness to provide a more basic program than anticipated speak well for the effectiveness of the collab- oration. Shifts in the economy lead to a scarcity of potential employees in fields where they were overabundant just a few years before. In the early 1970s, electrical engineers were having a hard time finding jobs; now those with graduate degrees are becoming more and more difficult to find. According to a recent survey by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, there will be 10,500 openings for electrical engineers per year through 1990, but col- leges will produce only 35% of the electrical engineers needed in the next half-decade.8 The University of Maryland at College Park and Fairchild Industries have therefore developed a cooperative master's degree program in electical engineering, emphasizing communications, systems, and soft- ware engineering. Cooperative education programs have a long and honorable history since they began at the University of Cincinnati in 1906. Today, 210,000 stu- 241 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 are provided for a fee. Innovative services include special programs for inventors, a regional waste exchange, trade area analysis, and international trade information for small businesses. 14 Owners of small businesses not only get the benefits of services of the Center for Industrial Research and Service. By using those services, they become familiar with students and faculty at cooperating universities and find out how to use such college resources as library information and publication data base searches, advisory services, and workshops. The access that major businesses often have to university research and facilities is thus made accessible to small businesses as well. ' Although the model of the university consulting center, such as Iowa State's, is hardly unknown, Henry Ford Community College in Dearborn, Michigan, has taken the idea much further by seeing the needs of small- business people and taking solutions to them instead of offering already- available courses or waiting to be asked. The college happens to be across the road from Fairlane Town Center, a regional shopping center managed by the Taubman Company. As the director of Henry Ford's Center for New Directions was discussing prob- lems of small-business people with the Mall's managers, certain typical problems emerged. Salespeople were often promoted to store management to fill a sudden vacancy without having any management skills or training. Problems of cost reduction, employee motivation, and management-tenant relations were frequent for these new managers. In order to serve the mall tenants, the Center for New Directions de- veloped a program geared to these typical store-management problems. To help make it as convenient as possible, the program, which came to be known as Sunrise Seminars, was held in a mall restaurant for two hours before the stores opened for the morning. Store managers were formally invited to attend by the center's management staff, but both groups were given equal status in the course and were encouraged to work as teams by the college faculty, who acted as neutral presenters. Participants com- pleted "problems questionnaires" and all tenant problems were addressed during the series. The seminars have been even more successful than either the college or the mall management could have anticipated. Participants have com- mented that the program is "precise, to the point, up-to-date, very in- formative," that "the interaction between the managers was of tremendous value," that "I use the principles of the course with my employees to help them perform better." 15 In fact, the program has resulted in "better tenant-center management relationships, increased profits and a reduction of costs, increased interaction of store managers with each other, and community involvement through the local community college." 16 The model is now being used in 21 malls throughout the United States in conjunction with 18 colleges; over 3,200 retail establishments have par- ticipated. ? Each of the preceding programs offers the solution to one or more problems of employee preparation or retraining in a changing economy. However, they have generally depended on one business or organization, 244 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 or a small number of businesses, working with one college or a small number of colleges. The idea of a systems approach, which makes it possible for many colleges to work with many employers and individual employees in a coordinated, effective way, is still very unusual, but it does exist. Because colleges typically guard their territories vigorously as they compete for students, for 38 colleges to develop a cooperative relationship to serve the needs of an entire region's adult population is as likely as Pepsi and Coca Cola joining hands. Yet the Compact for Lifelong Edu- cational Opportunities (CLEO) is a consortium of 38 colleges in the Del- aware Valley "working together to improve and extend the support of the adult development process in the region." 17 CLEO's services for adults are both individual and company-based. For instance, one telephone call from an inquiring adult will result in infor- mation on the courses, programs, and educational services at all the par- ticipating colleges and universities. Career and academic counseling or assessment of learning acquired through life and work experience can be obtained through CLEO, as well. However, CLEO also serves as a broker for education and training courses for industry, offers customized seminars for companies wishing to provide placement services for displaced em- ployees, provides career-development planning seminars for groups of employees, and even offers testing services. CLEO's activity as a liaison between higher education and business is successful because it keeps decision-making about training and education off its doorstep. CLEO will complete a request for proposal based on a company's training needs, circulate it to all member institutions, collect responses, and provide the company with full information, but the com- pany contracts directly with the college it selects. CLEO's brokerage has been useful to colleges not only for establishment of training collaborations but also economically. Advertising about all 38 colleges is included in CLEO brochures, advertisements, and newsletters. In addition, with CLEO's coordination, 17 colleges are now part of a national project offering telecourses to adults via local Public Broadcasting System affiliates. Because of CLEO's coordination, the group was able to license the courses at lower rates than they could have individually. In addition, CLEO offered a series of teleconferences to help individual schools market the telecourses, as well as teaching faculty how to "develop an instructional system based on telecourses and how to integrate them into college curricula." 18 CLEO is now forging connections with area churches, public school districts, radio and television stations, and social service agencies, as well as continuing services to individuals and businesses, in order to support the education of adults in, or seeking to be in, the work force in as effective a way as possible. For employers, the programs we have described provide models for training and retraining employees but also models for improving the quality of work life as well. For instance, a number of participating employers mentioned the increase in productivity of workers who had gone through special training, and their increased longevity of tenure in their positions. 245 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: .7,1A-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Employees being trained mentioned being stimulated by their experiences and being encouraged by their company's interest in their welfare. Other workers mentioned more positive morale, as they saw others being re- trained instead of fired, and promoted as a result of the new training. For colleges, these programs provide models for excellent collaboration with a world not always familiar or open to advice from the educational sector. In addition, these programs give indication that systematic, future- oriented educational activity rather than crisis intervention can be a func- tion of higher education. For both colleges and businesses, these programs show that even with current resources and current knowledge, workers can be served both humanely and effectively to prepare them for their futures. Notes 1. Andrew McFalrin, letter to authors, February 14, 1983, p. 2. 2. TAP 17: The Changing Nature of Work, American Council of Life Insurance, 1977, p. 3. 3. NABW's Bachelor's Degree in Management Program, pamphlet, p. 5. 4. Audrey Bishop, "UM Tries to Attract Blacks to Business," The News Amer- ican, September 29, 1982. 5. Stephany D. Graham, "LEAD Program Merges with Howard U.," The Black Explosion, October 14, 1982. 6. The Productive Partnership: The University of Pennsylvania Program at INA, pamphlet, pp. 7-8. 7. Peg Thomas, interview with authors, February 17, 1983. 8. Anne Moultrie, "Maryland and Fairchild Plug into Tomorrow," Maryland Today, January-February, 1982, p. 6. 9. Trudi Spigel, "Retrofitting," Washington University Magazine, August 1982, p. 22. 10. Nancy J. Perry, "Recycled" Engineers Provide Talent and Technical Expertise at Monsanto," World of Work Reports, Vol. 7, No. 6., June 1982, p. 1. 11. M.P. Dudokovic, G.T. Kennedy, J. Maguire, "Industry-University Program for Long-Term Retraining of Engineers," Chemical Engineering Progress, June 1982, p. 21 12. Howard Gombert, handout on Spartanburg Program. 13. Lloyd E. Anderson, letter to authors, January 31, 1983, p. 2. 14. Management and Technical Assistance for Iowa Industry, pamphlet, pp. 2-3. IS. Robert J. Kopecky, "An Overview of Sunrise Seminars," Henry Ford Com- munity College. 16. Sunrise Seminars abstract. 17. "What is CLEO?" handout, p. 1. 18. CLEO* Faculty/Staff News, Fall 1981, p. 4. 246 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/94/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 The Future Impact of Technology on Work Skills by Henry M. Levin and Russell W. Rumberger During the war . . the Second Industrial Revolution . . . managers and en- gineers learned to get along without their men and women. . . It was the miracle that won the war?production with almost no man- power . . . . Machines were doing America's work far better than Americans had ever done it. There were better goods for more people at less cost, and who could deny that that was magnificent and gratifying? . . . Now you people have engineered them out of their part in the economy, in the market place, and they're finding out?most of them?that what's left is just about zero . . . Maybe the actual jobs weren't being taken from the people, but the sense of participation, the sense of importance was. ?Kurt Vonnegut, Jr., Player Piano, 1952 There is little doubt that technology will profoundly affect jobs in the future. Current technologies in biomedical engineering, computer design, and communications have already altered work in a variety of settings. The September 1982 issue of Scientific American documented how work in agriculture, transportation, offices, and even design has already been transformed significantly by technological advances. Future break- throughs, especially in microelectronics, will bring even more changes and further spread the impact of high technology. There is much more uncertainty about how technology will affect the number and composition of jobs in our future economy. Many business leaders, government officials, and citizens believe that an increasing num- ber of jobs will be in high-technology occupations, such as the engineering and computer fields. Robots and similar devices will eliminate some of the more mundane and boring jobs in society, freeing workers for more rewarding and creative jobs. And since more and more jobs will involve the use of computers and other highly sophisticated technical products, the skill requirements of jobs will generally be higher than they are today. Henry M. Levin is a professor in the School of Education and the Department of Economics and also director of the Institute for Research on Educational Finance and Governance, Stanford University, Stanford, California. Russell W. Rumberger is senior research associate and economist at the Institute for Research on Educational Finance and Governance, Stanford University. 247 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 As a result, future workers will need more education and training to acquire these skills. Despite the popularity of these beliefs, available evidence does not support them (Levin and Rumberger, in press). Recent employment pro- jections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor show that many more jobs will be created in low-skilled service occupations than in high-skilled professional ones. Between 1978 and 1990, the BLS projects more than 600,000 new jobs for janitors and sextons, compared to 200,000 new jobs for computer systems analysts; and 800,000 jobs for fast-food workers and kitchen helpers, compared to 88,000 jobs for computer operators (Carey, 1981). While occupations in high-technology areas will grow by 45% between 1980 and 1990?almost three times as fast as employment growth overall?they will generate only 7% of the new jobs (Coleman, 1982). Just 20 occupations will generate 35% of new jobs during the 1980s and not one relates to high technology. In fact, only two of those jobs?elementary school teachers and accountants?require a four-year college education. Of course, these figures are only estimates. But they are based on sophisticated, econometric techniques that are constantly revised by the BLS to reflect new advances and information (see Oliver, 1982). What they fail to show, however, is how technology will affect jobs in the future, particularly the skill levels of jobs. In the remainder of this paper, we will speculate on how technology is likely to impact on the number and composition of jobs in our future and why. We will then discuss the social implications of these changes. Technology and Jobs Technology will affect the number of jobs in our future economy as well as the skill composition of jobs. Both of these impacts are important. Some people fear that robots and other devices will eliminate an increasing number of jobs in our future economy. Others fear that the impact of technology on existing jobs will be equally disastrous by removing much of the discretion and creativity from jobs, leaving workers to simply monitor and respond to the demands of their machines. How likely are these fears to be realized? The Number of Jobs. Technology will eliminate jobs, but it will also create jobs. The important issue is whether it will create more jobs or fewer jobs than it eliminates. One difficulty in addressing this issue is that the jobs created are frequently in different industries than the jobs eliminated. Consider the case of robots. Robots have been used primarily to replace operative positions in manufacturing industries, such as automobiles and steelmaking (Ayres and Miller, 1983). One estimate suggests that robots could replace up to 3 million operative jobs during the next 20 years and eliminate all 8 million operatives by 2025 (Ayres and Miller, 1982). But the increasing use of robots will create jobs in those industries involved in their design, development, production, and maintenance. Another re- cent estimate suggests that robots will eliminate 100,000 to 200,000 jobs by the year 1990, while creating 32,000 to 64,000 new jobs (Hunt and 248 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Hunt, 1983). Thus, it appears that one major technology has the potential to eliminate more jobs than it creates. In order to assess the net impact of technological changes on the level of employment, one must account for the effect of economic growth. Economic growth creates jobs. So even if technology has the potential to eliminate more jobs than it creates, economic growth could produce enough new jobs to offset this tendency. Yet with the number of unemployed currently so high-12 million persons at the end of 1982?the economy would have to sustain a long period of high growth to both reduce the current level of unemployment and offset future displacement due to tech- nology. Recent government forecasts suggest unemployment will remain high for the next five years even without further displacement (U.S. President, 1983; U.S. Congressional Budget Office, 1983). So while eco- nomic growth may help to offset the displacement effects of technology, there is no assurance that the requisite levels can be attained in the near future. Another threat from technology is that it may facilitate the movement of production from the United States to other countries. Even high-tech- nology firms themselves are not immune to this development, as the recent announcement of 1,700 layoffs by Atari demonstrates (Washington Post, February 27, 1983). Technological developments in production, even so- phisticated electronics products, now permit these processes to be carried on by workers in other countries who receive much lower wages?$1 per hour versus $9 per hour?and have much less education-5 years versus 12 years?than American workers (San Jose Mercury News, February 28, 1983). Future technologies could accelerate this tendency. The Types of Jobs. It is not only important to consider how technology will affect the level of employment in our future economy, but also the types of jobs in the economy. First, will the jobs created by technological advances be more skilled or less skilled than the jobs eliminated? Second, will the impact of technology on existing jobs tend to raise or lower requisite work skills? It is unlikely that technology will ever eliminate the most skilled, cre- ative, and demanding forms of work in our future economy. Yet tech- nology is unlikely to eliminate the least skilled and most mundane jobs in our economy either, at least in the near future. It is much more profitable for companies to employ new technologies to eliminate jobs that pay $12 per hour than it is to replace jobs that pay the minimum wage of $3.35 per hour. Robots, for example, have been used primarily to replace op- eratives whose earnings are well above the minimum wage. Other examples also suggest that technology is most likely to eliminate middle-level, skilled and semi-skilled jobs. A series of technological ad- vances in the printing industry, from machine typesetting to computer- aided phototypesetting techniques, have eliminated large numbers of skilled craft jobs for composers and typesetters (Zimbalist, 1979a). Automatic teller machines are eliminating jobs for bank tellers. And computer-aided design (CAD) may soon eliminate the 300,000 current positions for draf- ters (Gunn, 1982). It is much more difficult to predict the types of jobs that will be created 249 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 as a result of these changes. Many of the new jobs will be in high- technology firms where these new products are designed, developed, and produced. While high-tech industries do employ a larger proportion of engineers, computer specialists, and other high-level, technical workers than other industries, the majority of jobs in these industries are at the semi-skilled level?operatives, clerical workers, and managers. Further, high-tech industries are only expected to generate about 5% of all new jobs between 1980 and 1990 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982). Thus, it appears that the skill levels of jobs created through the increasing use of technology in the workplace will not differ significantly from the jobs eliminated. To the extent that jobs in high-tech industries themselves become less skilled because of technology, the net impact of technological change will be to lower skill levels. The impact of technology on existing jobs will be much more important in determining the skill requirements of jobs in our future economy than the jobs created and lost through technology. Of course, technology alone does not change the skill requirements of jobs. It also depends on how the tasks associated with jobs are changed. As Adam Smith first recognized in The Wealth of Nations over 200 years ago and Charles Babbage more carefully documented 50 years later, if job tasks are fragmented into their respective parts, employers can hire less-skilled workers to perform the simpler tasks and pay them lower wages than workers who perform the more complex, skilled tasks (Braverman, 1974, p. 77-83). As a result of fragmentation, some jobs become "deskilled." Technology can aid this process as machines take over some of the tasks formerly performed by workers. The assembly line developed by Henry Ford was based on the principle of job fragmentation?some work- ers assembled one portion of the car while other workers assembled other portions. The introduction of machinery automated some aspects of the process, such as the movement of the automobiles down the line (Gartman, 1979). Automation also allows employers to better control the production and work process (Braverman, 1974, p. 195). One way to predict how technology will affect the skill levels of jobs in the future is to examine how technology affected the skill levels of jobs in the past. A number of studies have examined the implementation of past technological innovations on the skill requirements of jobs. One of the most thorough of these was conducted by James Bright, a professor at Harvard University. Bright examined the impact of automation in a variety of U.S. manufacturing firms during the 1950s. With increasing levels of automation, he observed that the skill requirements of jobs first increased and then decreased as many formerly skilled workers were simply required to tend machines (Bright, 1958). Other studies support the conclusion that past technological innovations have tended to reduce the skill requirements of jobs (e.g., Zimbalist, 1979b). Moreover, the skill requirements of jobs in the U.S. economy as a whole appear to have changed very little over the last 20 years despite the growth of professional and technical employment (Rumberger, 1981a). Present and future technologies promise the same impact. Computers, for example, have become easier and easier to use. Early computers were 250 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 initially programmed in machine languages that required extensive train- ing. Since that time, computer software has become increasingly "user- friendly" so that people can use computers with little or no computer background. A recent sales ad for the new LISA computer claims that workers can use the system with only 20 minutes of training. Current systems available with a "mouse" cursor and future systems commanded by voice may soon eliminate the need for most keyboard functions. While early technologies primarily displaced physical labor, computers and other electronic technologies threaten to displace mental labor and thereby reduce requisite work skills. Word processors now correct spelling mistakes and hyphenate words, thereby eliminating the need for those skills in secretaries. Computer-aided machines can now diagnose many of the problems that develop in these products, thereby reducing the requisite knowledge and skills of repair technicians. There appears to be virtually no area of work where computers cannot take over some of the mental tasks and make the judgments that were formerly the domain of individual workers. Computers also offer employers better ways of con- trolling the work process and monitoring the output of their employees (Wall Street Journal, May 6, 1983). Social Implications One implication of these changes is that our future economy may not be able to fully employ all those who wish to work. Similar fears were expressed during widespread automation of U.S. manufacturing firms during the 1950s. Those fears turned out to be unfounded as the United States experienced rapid and sustained economic growth during the 1960s. Yet the uneven economic growth of the last 10 years at least cautions against too much optimism over our country's ability to achieve the high growth rates of the past. Moreover, the future impact of technology on the workplace is likely to be much more widespread than past changes, increasing the potential for job displacement. If our economy is unable to generate sufficient jobs in the future, then our present system of dis- tributing income based on work may have to be revised (Leontief, 1982). Another implication of these changes is that work may become increas- ingly repetitious and boring in more and more jobs. Adam Smith (1937, p. 734) not only recognized the rationale for fragmenting jobs, but also the result: The man whose life is spent in performing a few simple operations, of which the effects too are, perhaps, always the same, or very nearly the same, has no occasion to exert his understanding, or to exercise his invention in finding out expedients for removing difficulties which never occur. He naturally loses, therefore, the habit of such exertion, and generally becomes as stupid and ignorant as it is possible for a human creature to become. Similar concerns were expressed in the government-initiated Work in ' America, which appeared 10 years ago (U.S. Department of HEW, 1973). Declining skill levels of jobs is particularly troublesome in the U.S. because education attainments, and hence skill levels, of the American work force are moving in the opposite direction. Currently, more than 251 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 one out of every four young workers entering the labor market has com- pleted four or more years of college (Rumberger, in press). As young workers with more schooling continue to replace older workers with less schooling, the average education level of American workers will continue to increase. Underemployment among college graduates is already wide- spread and will get worse even without further reductions in the skill levels of jobs (Rumberger, 1981b). Workers whose skills are underutilized dis- play higher levels of job dissatisfaction and may be less productive as a result (Rumberger 1981b, Chapter 5). This not only poses a problem for individual employers, but for the country as a whole. While the influence of technology on work is inevitable, its impact on the level and composition of jobs in our future economy is not. The influence of technology will depend on what technologies are developed, but its impact will depend on how it is employed. And that, in turn, depends on who controls the technology. Computer-generated medical diagnosis, for example, is unlikely to displace the need for physicians or their high status in the work world because they can control how this technology is employed. Most workers cannot. In most cases, employers determine how a particular technology will be employed and whom it will affect. Increasingly, unions have recognized the importance of bargaining with management over the use and impact of technology. The issue is likely to become more important in the future, especially as the threat of displacement becomes more apparent. To the extent that the workers affected by technology can help determine how it is employed, some of the negative consequences may be mitigated. But even that may not be,enough. The widespread influence of technology may require that all citizens become involved in setting policies over its use (Walton, 1982). References Ayres, Robert U., and Steven M. Miller. 1983. Robotics: Applications and Social Implications. Cambridge: Ballinger. Ayres, Robert U., and Steven M. Miller. 1982. "Industrial Robots on the Line." Technology Review, 85 (May/June): 35-46. Braverman, Harry. 1974. Labor and Monopoly Capital. New York: Monthly Review Press. Bright, James R. 1958. "Does Automation Raise Skill Requirements?" Harvard Business Review, July/August: 85-99. Carey, Max L. 1981. "Occupational Employment Growth Through 1990." Monthly Labor Review, 104 (August): 42-55. Coleman, Garrett V. 1982. Memorandum compiled from revised BLS employment estimates, 1980-1990. Gartman, David. 1979. "Origins of the Assembly Line and Capitalist Control of Work at Ford." In Case Studies in the Labor Process, edited by Andrew Zimbalist, pp. 193-205. New York: Monthly Review Press. Gunn, Thomas G. 1982. "The Mechanization of Design and Manufacturing." Sci- entific American, 247 (September): 115-130. Hunt, H. Allan, and Timothy L. Hunt. 1983. Human Resource Implications of Ro- botics. Kalamazoo: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. Leontief, Wassily. 1982. "The Distribution of Work and Income." Scientific Amer- ican, 247 (September): 188-204. 252 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Levin, Henry M., and Russell W. Rumberger. In press. "The Low-Skill Future of High Technology." Technology Review. Oliver, Richard. 1982. BLS Economic Growth Model System Used for Projections to 1990. Bulletin 2112. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Rumberger, Russell W. 1981a. "The Changing Skill Requirements of Jobs in the U.S. Economy." Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 34 (July): 578-590. Rumberger, Russell W. 1981b. Overeducation in the U.S. Labor Market. New York: Praeger. Rumberger, Russell W. In press. "The Job Market for College Graduates, 1960- 1990." The Journal of Higher Education. San Jose Mercury News, February 28, 1983, P. 1. Scientific American (September 1982). Smith, Adam. 1937. The Wealth of Nations. New York: The Modern Library. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1982. "Current Employment and Projected Growth in High Technology Occupations and Industries." Testimony submitted to the Joint Economic Committee, August. U.S. Congressional Budget Office. 1983. The Outlook for Economic Recovery. Wash- ington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. President. 1983. Economic Report of the President. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Department of HEW. 1973. Work in America. Special Task Force to the Secretary of HEW. Cambridge: MIT Press. Wall Street Journal, May 6, 1983, p. I. Walton, Richard E. 1982. "Social Choice in the Development of Advanced Infor- mation Technology." Technology in Society, 4: 41-50. Washington Post, February 27, 1983, p. Fl. Zimbalist, Andrew. 1979a. "Technology and the Labor Process in the Printing In- dustry." In Case Studies in the Labor Process, edited by Andrew Zimbalist, pp. 103- 126. New York: Monthly Review Press. Zimbalist, Andrew, ed. 1979b. Case Studies in the Labor Process. New York: Monthly Review Press. 253 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Human Capital: A High-Yield Corporate Investment by Anthony Patrick Carnevale It is human nature to waste anything that seems abundantly supplied. At the moment, there seems to be an overabundance of American workers. Our economy apparently is overflowing with underemployed, unem- ployed, and expendable people. As unseemly rates of unemployment hover in double digits, we are told that labor-saving machinery will soon make us all redundant. The bogeyman of technology is loose again. We Americans are predisposed to the view that there are too many people. Our recent history encourages us to accept the notion that people are superfluous while machinery, financial capital, and the tangible fruits of the earth are scarce. Since 1946, we have been forced persistently to reshape our economic and social structures in order to bear, feed, clothe, educate, employ, and house the 76 million members of the American baby boom. As a result, while we have learned to value people for their pur- chasing power, we have not seen them as critical resources for production. Things are riirely as they first appear. Upon closer examination, the apparent oversupply of Americans proves illusory. Unfortunately, our misconceptions and the biases of our recent history are threatening our nation's economic future. There is some risk that we will be misled by the notion that people are oversupplied and beguiled by our recent past into a national investment strategy that favors machines and resources extracted from the earth over people. This would shortly prove a serious economic error. As the following evidence will demonstrate, the economic and social yield from investing in human resources is high and increasing. Our economic growth and productivity are becoming ever more dependent on our human resources. Increasing Yield from Human Capital The nation's economic history tells us with deadening statistical reg- ularity of the increasing yield from human capital investment. The evi- Anthony Patrick Carnevale is presently a consulting economist and is also a research associate at both Harvard and Ohio State University. This article is an executive summary of a study prepared for the American Society for Training and Development (ASTD); information on the full study can be obtained from ASTD, 600 Maryland Avenue, S.W., Suite 305 Washington, D.C. 20024. 254 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 dence, as summarized in Figure 1, divides the increase in national income between 1929 and 1978 into its human resource, land, capital, and pro- ductivity components. Figure 1 also shows a middle-of-the-road projection of the growth in national income and its component parts through 1990. The evidence demonstrates clearly the overwhelming historical and pro- jected contribution of human resource factors to the increase in national income. By way of comparison, human resource inputs are shown to be consistently more important than capital. Further, land continues to slip as a critical economic resource. For every year measured since 1928, and projected through 1990, human resources have been the dominant factor accounting for growth in national income. Figure 2 provides additional detail on human contributions to growth in national income. It breaks the human contribution into its component factors: hours worked, age/sex composition, and education. "Hours worked" have a nearly persistent negative effect on the human contribution to national income. The reason: People are working fewer hours and enjoying more leisure time. Thus it becomes a happy problem when understood in the context of another set of trends?the simultaneous rise in wages and worker productivity. Between 1929 and the mid 1960s, American workers managed to increase their leisure time, their wages, and their productivity all at the same time. The negative impact of "hours worked" is, therefore, good news. It is testimony to the ultimate success of the American econ- omy throughout most of this century. It demonstrates that American work- ers have been working smarter, not harder. % GROWTH NATIONAL INCOME 4 Figure 1 Components of Growth in National Income 1929-1990 1929-41 1941-48 1948-53 1953-64 1964-69 1969-73 1973-78 Projected 1980-1990 High Moderate Growth Growth -1 x The economic contribution f om growth in Human Resources + Capital + Land + Productivity = Growth in National Income. DHuman Resource Factors 255 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/17: CIA-RDP90-00530R000802100001-5 % GROWTH IN NATIONAL INCOME 5 4 3 2 Figure 2 Components of Growth in National Income 1929-1976 1929-41 1941-48 1948-53 1953-64 1964-69 1969-73 1973-76 cfe?`' \ + )k Iii Al ZZS503S 3x? 3+