CIA FINDS SOVIET MODERATING ARMS SPENDING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00552R000100170011-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 23, 2010
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: November 19, 1983
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/23: CIA-RDP90-0055
2 R000100170011-2
BALTIMORE SUN
19 November 1983
ARTICLE y.PPEAB D
STAT OIi PAGEAi -..
ClAfinds Soviet mo-derating arms
spending
economy, presented to the Congres-
sional Joint Economic Committee
September 20 and released yester-
dday by Senator William Proxmire
(D, Wis.), the CIA cut its previous esti-
e Soviet military buildup.
In a new analysis of the Soviet I siv
Washington (Reuter) - The CIA neglected to communicate and that
said yesterday the rate of increase in the West failed to detect."
Soviet defense spending has slowed, Mr. Reagan, in seeking congres-
apparently contradicting President 110=1 and public support for his $1.8
-Reagan's frequent warnings that: trillion arms program over five
Moscow was embarked on an unprec-' years, often has invoked the threat of
edented arms buildup. what he called the continuing mas-
The CIA analysis also covered the
state of the Soviet economy which, it
said, was not on the verge of collapse.
After two years of low growth in 1981
and 1982 the Soviet economy seemed
poised for a rebound, the CIA said.
"Despite its problems, the U.S.S.R.
is not on the verge of economic col-
lapse. The Soviet economy is the sec-
ond largest in the world with a large
and literate population, a huge indus-
trial plant and an enormous endow-
ment of natural resources," it said.
The CIA predicted 1983 economic
growth based on statistics from the
first seven months at 3.5 to 4.0 per-
cent of gross national product, com-
pared with 2.0 percent in 1981 and
1982.
But growth then would slow to an
annual rate of 2.0 percent, it added.
The CIA also revised Soviet oil
prospects, saying they were not as
bleak as it estimated in 1977, when
some analysts forecast the Soviet
Union would become a net importer
of oil by 1985.
mate of Soviet defense growth by
more than half.
Moscow continued to increase
military outlays until 1976 by a
strong 4 to 5 percent annually, ac-
cording to the CIA testimony.
"Our new estimate, however,
shows that like overall economic
growth, the rise in the cost of defense
since 1976 has been slower - about 2
percent a year," CIA analysts said.
The CIA found that a slowdown in
producing military hardware, the
largest category of Soviet defense
spending, accounted for most of the
drop. It gave no explanation for the
policy change.
The Central ir,elligence. `s,n_y
reported that its r-eliminat-V cr i _ .. r
1982 indicated the slowing trend ^7as
continuing but added that, despite
lagging growth, Soviet defense activi-
ties exceeded those of the United
States "by a large margin."
The Pentagon's Defense Intelli-
gence Agency disputes the new CIA
figures, reporting that there has been
no slowdown in total Soviet defense
spcnding in the 1970s, according to
published reports.
Mr. Proxmire said the CIA analy-
sis tad a profound significance that
had not yet penetrated policy circles.
Noting that Soviet defense spend-
ing remained large and growing, he
said, "Moscow has not been expand-
ing its effort at the rapid rate that
was once believed, a fact the Soviets
Although production was ievenng
off, the prospects now were consider-
ably better than once thought, ac-
cording to the CIA testimony.
Assessing new leader Yuri V. An-
dropov's performance in office, the
CIA said basic Soviet policies had not
altered since the death of Leonid
Brezhnev.
"Continuity has been far more pro-
nounced than change," the agency's
analysts said.
STAT
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/23: CIA-RDP90-00552R000100170011-2