PBS MACNEIL-LEHRER NEWSHOUR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00552R000100170012-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 23, 2010
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: November 11, 1983
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/23: CIA-RDP90-00552R000100170012-1
STAT
PBS MACNEIL-LEHRER NEWSHO
. 11 November 1983
STAT
MACNEIL: To analyze Andropov's first year and the meaning s pr '. i"oh
we have first Lawrence\Caldwell, who was scholar in residence at the CIA's office of
Soviet analysis for the past two years. He now teaches at Occidental College in
California, and is a staff member of the Arroyo Center of the Jet Propulsion
Laboratory in Pasadena. Dr. Caldwell, is Andropov, in your view, still running the
USSR? LAWRENCE CALDWELL (Occidental College): It's hard to know, given the signals
we've had about health. Think I would disagree with Jiri Valenta in his most recent
statement there. He holds all the formal levers of power. Uh, there's no sign of a
challenge to him. We did have signs during the six or eight months prior to the death
of Brezhnev that there was some maneuvering and jocking... jockeying. We haven't had
those signs this time. So Andropov doesn't have an alternative at the moment. If
he's in ill health, which, uh, seems increasingly apparent, uh, of course be probably.
isn't running the show. But there is no alternative.
MACNEIL: How much of a, uh, of a leadership void would you say that there is? I
mean, they pointed, for instance, to the, uh, the uncertainties and the different
voices in Moscow at the time of the Korean airliner. Did that reveal to you a serious
lack of leadership? CALDWELL: No, I think the only substantial signal of a lack of
leadership is the fact that Andropov has been out of sight. The only statements we've
had from Andropov have come in the press, and those probably come from the central
committee. Uh, as far as the handling of the KAL incident, I wouldn't int.rrpret -that
as a signal that he hasn't been in charge. On the contrary, uy , it cor.;? r ? ; l ne-?r,
that he was, or the leadership as a whole was trying to dis?ss_,ciate h:, ftc.-: Ar.,
i, ;;.ate resp njihility from what was, no doubt, an erb-rrass;. ir?.;ct-
M~C!~EIL: Now obviously we ca ;'t predict' how ill. he is, say hco-; lit h: a:?
can't predict h--n-4 lor2 he -y liv,?. he d.)- s die i j.. r..:,nths or year. Are we in f--D.- a 1on:-,_r p -ioc of u~_:-r tatr,:y?
somebody, presunably. Is he lik iy to be rt laced t,.;),
f, = -; w.h_ will r:,.-~,.
who will take hold of the lea ship and hold it for a long p ri,A of tirn., or arr wr,
in for -a series of quick succ_ lions? C4`D _L[ : If
%r he were to die now or if h:
to be.;omc incap_citated and, a;': be rer,iac .i in th s.',crt run, then alrJ. t cer ;< _r:iy
we would be in for another intermediate stage of the leadership. The features that
governed his succession, uh,, the sort or institutional balance among the KCB ar.c the
military and the party and the ministry on foreign affairs, that remains in place.
The people who are there who are the, his principal colleagues on the politburo are
still quite aged. Consequently, uh, my guess is that if he were to have to step down
or were to die, we would see another interim leader. We're in a process of
succession, one that will continue for some time.
MACNEIL: Until the younger generation... CALDWELL: Until the younger generation.
And there aren't many of the younger generation on the current politburo. The Soviets
that I've talked to, uh, had hoped that Andropov would be able to weather this
transition on his own, that he would be able to grab ahold of the policy leverb, ur.,
to bring new people into the politburo, and that he would be the instrument of the
succession. Obviously if he's incapacitated he won't be the instrument, and we'll see
another one with a short term, I would gather.*
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/23: CIA-RDP90-00552R000100170012-1