U.S. ANALYSTS UPGRADE OPINION OF SYRIAN UNITS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00552R000100250008-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 24, 2010
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: December 5, 1983
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/24: CIA-RDP90-00552R000100250008-7
ARTICLE APPEARED
ON PAGE
NEW YORK TIMES
5 December 1983
Fighting in Lebanon: A Reappraisal of Damascus
US. Analysts Upgrade
Opinion of Syrian Units
One. lesson drawn from yesterday's
American air attacks in Lebanon,
United States and North Atlantic al-
liance intelligence specialists say, is
that Syrian air defenses in Lebanon are
far' stronger and, significantly, more
mobile than anticipated.
Analysts said the air de-
Military fenses that engaged the
Muilysis Navy bombers were prob-
ably manned by Syrians
exclusively. They did not
reject the possibility that Soviet techni-
cians could have been visiting the sites
during the attack. But they pointed out
that yesterday's brief Soviet press re-
port on the raid made no mention of the
presence of Russians in the battle area.
7,000 Soviet Personnel
But they said the scale of Soviet in-
volvement in any future actions pro-
sented a problem for American plan.
nets and for other commanders of the
international ground, air and land
forces in and off Beirut. About 7,000
Soviet technicians and infantrymen
serve in Syria, and attacks into Syria
by Western aircraft could put these
forces at risk and, possibly, provoke
Soviet reaction.
The Syrian defensive response to the
raid by 28 American jet bombers, es-
corted by F-14 fighters, was heavy. Ac-
coriding to a Pentagon source the
Syrians fired about 40 SA-7 and SA-9
missiles at the American aircraft plus
a barrage of antiaircraft fire from
ZSU-23 and ZSU-57 self-propelled,
radar-guided guns.
United States sources said they did
not; know what weapons knocked down
two Navy planes, one an A-6E and the
other an A-7E. One Lebanese source
said both aircraft were shot down by
SAZ missiles. This is a beat-seeking in-
fantry missile that can be fired by one
man with a launcher aimed from the
shoulder.
Pentagon sources reported that a
third American aircraft was hit in its
exhaust pipe, possibly by a surface-to-
air missile. But it managed to return to
the carrier.
The SA-9, which is radar guided, is,
v
around Damascus to defend theme capi- dle East.
tal.
Soviet SS-21 surface-to-surface mis-
siles recently deployed in Syria present
the greatest danger to the American
fleet, North Atlantic Treaty Organiza
tion sources said. These missiles,
which some analysts say have a range
of 120 miles, are more accurate and,
have a longer range than Syria's Scud
missiles, also provided by the Soviet
Union.
Naval sources said the SS-21, "unless
the shot was extraordinarily lucky,"
could not sink an American carrier or
major surface ship. But it could, they
said, put the vessel out of action for
some days.
fired from scout cars or light armored
vehicles.
Use of'Smart Bombs'
The Navy's A-6E is a more advanced
version of the A.6's first deployed in
1963; the A-7E is a descendant of the
A-7's first deployed in 1966. The former
is powered by two turbojet engines and
carries a pilot and a navigator-bombar-
dier. The A-7E is a single-seat bomber
powered by one turbofan engine.
Intelligence sources said they be..
lieved "smart bombs" were used'
against the Syrian targets. Such bombs
are guided by television or radar.
North Atlantic alliance and Israeli
military sources noted that there were
no American reports that electronic or
other countermeasures had been used
to divert Syrian missiles.
Analysts said the Syrians had appar-
ently learned from last year's defeat
the Israelis not to turn on their radars,
which attacking planes can use to home
in on antiaircraft emplacements, until
they are under attack.
About 300 Syrian MIG's
A second lesson, these sources said,
is that the Syrians are not prepared to
risk aerial combat with American
Weighing the Syrian potential
against American and other Western
forces in the region, American and
allied intelligence sources judged the
Western situation as favorable. They
believe that yesterday's raid showed
the Syrians that the United States had
the lanes to o Syrian attacks on
its
renewed
at
s
tac
on the
United States m
arines.
Health of Syrian President
But they argued that the American
foray also underlined that the only ef-,
fective weapon against the Syrians or
other enemies of the Government of
Amin Gemayel in Beirut is air power.
The marines, a spokesman said, re-
tired into their bunkers as soon as the
raid began. Patrols by the marines and
the French, British and Italian units in
the multinational force are at a mini-
mum and, in consequence, their mili-
tary impact on the Lebanese is now
marginal-
Intelligence gence analysts in Washington
saw the shelling of the United States
Marine position late yesterday as a
partial retaliation for the Navy bomb.
ing. They said they were concerned
that the Druse and Moslem militiamen,
spurred by the Syrians, would continue
such attacks despite shelling from the
United States naval squadron.
Intelligence officers at NATO said
one unknown factor in the situation was
the condition of Syria President's,
Hafez al-Assad. Their view was that
the Syrian Government would not be in
a position to react instantly and effec-
tively against future American strikes
if the President is seriously ill, as per-
i
stent rumors assert.
F-14's or with any of the modern sir- I s
craft stationed on the American and might t These find sources
it t fortunate added that the West
et
French carriers lying off Beirut. - Assad and V. Andro that both
Syria has just under 300 Soviet-made leader, incapacitated ed t some Soviet
MIG's of various vintages in its inter- were inpacitated to sodo-
ceptor force, but most of these, intelli- I ties oat a critical moment for the for.
f their two countries in the Mid-
gence analysts said are d la
ed
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/24: CIA-RDP90-00552R000100250008-7