SYSTEM 'VITAL' . . .

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00806R000200980152-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2010
• Sequence Number: 152
• Publication Date: May 30, 1980
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/22 : CIA-RDP90-00806R000200980152-4
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30 _.:ay 1980
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The article on the NIX missile sys-
tem ("At whom is the N111, point-
ed?") by Dr. Stephen. a. Zatuchni on
April 22 was so replete with errors of
fact and compr~rension that I feel
obligated to help straighten out the
record.
It voH1d be interesting to know
how Drr.Zahtch b s concluded that
T. isrhzaper, easier and faster to
deploy m or_ missiles and warheads"
than to build AX sheltei3. In reality,
we could pear concrete and pile up
dirt.:to build- more- shelters cheaper
than, and. just as fast as, the Soviets
could build missiles and warheads-
theiri igiseat techroiegy products;
It is astonishing. indeed; to learn
from Dr. Zatuchni- t.. t t e-
lieve -.the- Soviets could rapidly C-
--T warneads. ne A ex-
perts I dTal wit' a ti =k such a move
would dramatically curtci, the r
overall military program, destroy
to?ir vital civil nuclear power pro-
4ft
and we now have to overhaul some
of the earlier models. A new missile
is justified to keep mainterance-and
support costs low in the suture.
Dr: Zatuchni suggests that if a
rrissiie can flee to a shelter in a few
mmnuccs,, en airp nne csrtamiy' can
tt)o, thereby * impl; tg erdor;iiement
of an alrbasing concept. With a bit of
reflection her. might -have, realized
that the shelters into which the mis.
sile can move are, several hundred
times as resletant to nuclear blast as
the airplanes, so an airplane has.to
go a lot further to be safe. This con-
sideration plus the large number of
new.* air bases implied ? lead to the
conclusion that airplane basing of
MX would bei 50 to 10D percent more
expensive than land basing. This re-
sult was publicized last year when
-a completed our desi,",, study.
The idea of small diesel- powered
submarines has been worked on
since about 1967 and still looks poor.
My office has recently published-.a .
summary of the current information.
How Dr. Zatuchni thinks a diesel
powered sub, visibly snorkeling five
hours a day, will be secure Is .a rays-l
tery to me.- Our fleet of., missile
launching submarines is a vital part
'
of our deterrent. but it would be dan-I
gerous to concentrate too large- a,
fraction of our eggs in that basket.]
Even if we did want more rr.lesii es at
sea, the effective- and economical)
way to get them - there is to build
more of the long range, capable Tri-;
dent submarines, _ not incapable!
mini-subs patrolling In coaa.wa-
ter (which would then beme al
rich hunting ground for Soviet anti-l
gram9 y atverttng1mc ear materi-
als, force cancellation of their for.
etgn nuclear cower related cornmct-
ments, and in general have serious
a ve_-saeffects on their entire econo-
my. By contrast, Max will cost about
one halt of 1 percent of the total fed-
eral budget over the years it takes to
deploy (completion in 1939). This is a
small price to. pay to strengthen a
vital element of our strate lc forces
Which provide security for the free
.world... .
Dr. Zatuchni says MX may cost as
much as M billion. He must have
b15-own' inflation projections. If he
tells me haw much a Chevrolet will
cosi.in 1988, I will tell him how much
MX will cost in that year. Our real
estimate is about S33 billion in 1980
dollars, which is about #0 percent of
the amount we have spent on our
Minuteman missile force. 65 percent
.of what we have spent 'cn ou& .B..52_
bomber fleet, ct' about 80 percent of
what we have spent on our Polaris/
Poseidon nuclear missile-carrying
submarine force.
Dr. ?.atuchni apparently Believes it
would be cheaper to rebase Minute-
Man in MX shelters than to build
new missiles. In fact, a smaller mis.
site like Minuteman would require a
large number of shelters to insure
survival of the number of warheads
needed to meet our deterrence objec-
tives. A large missile, providing for
submarine forces).. .
Dr. Zatuclmi is terribly concerned!
that the location of the MX missiiesi
can be detected by what he states to!
be present U.S. reconraissarce ca-'
pabilitles. He must sleep uneasily,',
indeed, if he believes that those re-!
sponsible.for his defense are sofatu-I
Otis that it wouldn't occur to them to I
test MX against our own detection
capabilities, for which they are also
responsible. Simple concrete ws+efghts
and various electronic black-boxes
will be used to keep the transporters
and shelters always loaded to the
same weight, sending out appropri-
ate emissions, and solve the problem
(S L Zeiberg is deputy under see-
retary, Strategic and Space Sys.:
fems, Department of Defense.)
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/22 : CIA-RDP90-00806ROO0200980152-4