WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE CIA'S ROBERT M. GATES?

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00845R000100310002-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2010
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: March 21, 1986
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/03: CIA-RDP90-00845R000100310002-1
ARTICLE A i" kED EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
21 March 1986
What is wrong with tl-.
CIA's Robert M. Gates
by Criton Zoakos
On Feb. 24. 1986, the deputy director of the CIA. John
McMahon, resigned secretly. at approximately the same time
as the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos. was
almost forcibly being placed in an American aircraft en route
to Guam. The man who replaced McMahon. Robert M. Gates,
was, prior to these events, at the private residence of Secre-
tary of State George F. Shultz. taking care of the final details
of the toppling of Marcos, together with John Poindexter,
chief of the NSC, Michael Armacost. Richard Armitage,
Paul Wolfowitz and Philip Habib. The news was made public
one full week after the event. No explanation was given, nor
is the promotion of Gates necessarily connected with the
"preemptive destabilization" of the Philippines.
The promotion of the 42-year-old Mr. Gates is yet another
calamity for the intelligence effort of the United States: Mr.
Gates, through his past contributions, has been intimately
associated with one of the great disasters of American intel-
ligence, the infamous "crumbling Soviet Empire" thesis, now
dominant in government thinking. This thesis, which down.
plays the Soviet threat to the West on grounds that the "rot-
ten" Soviet economy is collapsing from within and that ethnic
and religious revolts are about to topple Soviet power, began
gaining currency during 1982, the year in which CIA Director
William Casey made Robert Gates deputy director for intel-
ligence at the CIA. and chairman of the National Intelligence
Council, which produces the National Intelligence Estimates
of the United States Government. That was also the year in
which the experienced Prof. Richard Pipes was unceremon-
iously kicked out of the National Security Council, to be
replaced. first by 30-year-old "Russian expert" John Len-
czowski, and, later, by Carter-era diplomat Jack F. Matlock.
Under the direction of Robert Gates. who. in his profes-
sional circle, is reputed to he the CIA's "best" Soviet analyst.
the CIA. in 1983, produced a report on the Soviet econom%.
stating that mismanagement. corruption, and inetficiency had
all but doomed the Soviet system to an untimely death. One
year later. in 1984. Gates himself', testifying before Con-
gress, further elaborated that the "crumbling Soviet Empire."
suffers from "a perverse system of incentives Iwhich I pro-
motes inefficient behavior by enterprise managers and damp-
ens the introduction of new technology into the economy."
The implications for United States security concerns.
according to this "crumbling Empire" theory. are that the
Soviet leadership is embarking on "reforms." - ss tich include
the transfer of managers and resources from the military to
the civilian sector of the Soviet economy, thus diminishing
the potential Soviet threat to U.S. security.
EIR had occassion. in early 1983. to doubt Mr. Gates'
professional credentials as the "CIA's best" Soviet expert. at
a time when EIR first circulated its analysis that all Soviet
policy making is determined by the Russian-chauvinist "Third
and Final Rome" tendency, associated with,the military elite
and the Andropov-Gorbachov power combination. The re-
sponse, in 1983. to our "Third Rome" analysis, from Mr.
Gates' general direction was: "There is no such 'Third Rome'
tendency: and, what is this 'Third Rome.' anyway.'
Ignorance of that school of Russian statecraft associated
with the "Third Rome" would he enough to disqualify anyone
from professional intelligence duties. Apparently, the igno-
rance of the CIA's Soviet experts under Mr. Gates, was
somehow, protected. As the debate between the two con-
tending analyses. "Third Rome." versus "crumbling Em-
pire," grew, it became obvious that the ignoramuses at the
various "analysis" desks of the CIA, were enjoying more
than protection: the protectors of the "crumbling Empire"
folly were engaged in a deception.
Continued
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/03: CIA-RDP90-00845R000100310002-1