STRATEGIC INVESTMENT SCOOPS THE CIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00845R000201150001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 18, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 1, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/18: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201150001-8
ARTICLE APP REI STRATEGIC INITESTr,,ENr
ON PAGE May 1985
Strategic Investment Scoops
the CIA
Dramatic events in April brought proof that
Strategic Investment's intelligence judgments
are not only accurate, they are sometimes su-
perior to those of the U.S. government. The March
issue of SI gave you advance warning that the 16-year
regime of Jaafar Nimeiry was about to be overthrown
in Sudan. Our report concluded: "expect the Army to
depose him soon." That happened on April 6. Unfor-
tunately, top American intelligence officials did not
agree with the SI assessment. They put a report on
President Reagan's desk saying that Nimeiry could
hold onto power. Nimeiry was invited to the White
house for an official visit. In fact, he was in Washing-
ton when the Army moved to depose him.
Developments in the Sudan are ominous for several
reasons. First of all, the new government will move
away from the United States and Egypt to a policy of
friendship with Libya, Marxist Ethiopia, and the Soviet
Union. Hours after Army commander, Gen. Abdul
Rahman Swar Al-Dahab overthrew Nimeiry, Libya was
the first nation to recognize the new government. Dic-
tator Muammar Qaddafi.boasted, "Sudan is ours."
Whether the new government likes it or not, it will
have to move to the left to find a solution to the bloody
and expensive guerrilla war being waged in the South
by the Sudan Peoples Liberation Army.
Sudan has been spending $300,000 per day to fight
the insurgency. It is now too broke to continue. But
negotiating an end to the conflict means persuading
Garang's backers-Qaddafi, Ethiopia and the Krem-
lin-to withdraw support. At a minimum, this will re-
quire Sudan to abandon its pro-Egyptian and pro-U.S.
policy. That means Sudan will back away from the
Camp David peace process and end sanctuary for
Eritrean rebels battling the government in Ethiopia.
The resulting shift of power toward the left in the
Horn of Africa will place pressures on Egypt. It could
even lead to a war between Egypt and Libya. President
Mubarak will not allow Qaddafi to threaten Egyptian
security by gaining control of the Upper Nile-not
without a fight. This is a potentially explosive
situation.
It is too early to tell how rapidly events will move.
Gen. Al-Dahab is regarded as something of a "plodder"
in intelligence circles. The inside view is that other of-
ficers who worked with him in plotting the overthrow
will emerge, possibly in another coup. Islamic extrem-
ists more closely allied to Qaddafi are also angling to
seize power.
Another feature of this crisis that you should take
note of: the new government has decisively broken
with the IMF, repudiating its austerity program. Food
subsidies removed by Nimeiry at IMF insistence have
been reinstated. Look for more examples of Third
World governments defaulting on debts rather than
sticking to unpopular austerity programs.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/18: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201150001-8