REAGAN GETTING SOME ILL ADVICE ON MIDDLE EAST

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000100140032-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 13, 2012
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: September 9, 1983
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/04/13: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100140032-4
ARTICLE AFFE&M
PAGE
WASHINGTON POST
9 September 1983
Reagan Getting
Some Ill Advice
On Middle Cast
President Reagan should fire the
people who have been fashionin& his
Middle. East policy before he: gets
mired any d eeper in the shifting
sands. ,They have misread events at
every turn.
It's not, that the policy-makers
received bad, intelligence; the secret
warnings were clear but ignored.
Warnings that went unheeded:
? Reagan -promised Lebanon's
Amin Gemayel that the U.S. Ma-
rines would remain on the--scene
until the Lebanese army could take
over. The White House put out the
cheery assessment that this should
be-no more than n-a year. But a year
ago, intelligence reports warned the
Lebanese army was --in 'far , worse
shape than anyone had imagined.
? Reagan assured Congress for-
mally that the Marines would not
become involved in hostilities. Yet,
he was forewarned that the Marines
could riot avoid casualties:
? As far back as March 6, 1981, a
CIA analysis warned that Israeli-in-
cursions into -Lebanon were "inevi-
table" and that a large-stale invasion
was likely.
? Once the Israelis crossed into
Lebanon, strategists advised the
president to let them clean out the
:Palestine 'Liberation Organization
underground; and to install a stable
Lebanese, government. Instead, Rea-
gan listened to advisers who warned
. that the United States would "forfeit'
all influence" in Lebanon if:the Leb-
anese-"remain solely dependent on
Israeli support" As a- result, Leba-
non is a U.S.protectorate that Rea-
gan is reluctant to protect.
? When Reagan, offered his "peace
initiative".for .the Middle East last
year, he counted on the crucial sup-
port,of Jordan's King Hussein. He
went ahead with the plan despite
intelligence warnings that the king
would decline the honor. The reports
were right, and Reagan, wound up
looking foolish.
? Reagan also misjudged Syria's
Hafez Assad, who was expected to
end his long occupation of eastern
Lebanon if the Israelis could be per-
suaded to withdraw. Yet, my reading
of - intelligence reports led me to
warn on April 29, "The Syrians will
try to remain in Lebanon after Is-
raeli troops and international peace-
keeping .forces agree to pull out."
? At the same time that. Reagan's
advisers were telling him Assad was
a reasonable' ruler, intelligence re-
ports warned that.he'was conspiring
with Arab . extremists and Soviet
suppliers. The Soviets were trying to
precipitate .a. Syrian-Israeli military
clash that-could catch the U.S. Ma-
rines in the cross fire, a February,
1983, report: added. Now the White
House acknowledges that these re-
ports were true.
? A Jana 4, 1983; secret dispatch
from Damascus reported that "U.S.
' intelligende community believes
Syria is preparing at least- two -sites
for surface-to-air missiles- of' type
SA5." These top-of-the-line--missiles
-never before deployed outside- the
Soviet Union, are now in Syria. They
have '?a 150-mile range; which '' is
enough to sweep the Lebanese skies.
? Assad's conniving with the most
radical elements of the PLO has
been known to U.S. intelligence for
at least-a year.
? U.S. intelligence agencies re-
ceived warnings a month in advance
that Iranian-backed terrorists, ap-
parently with Syrian connivance,
planned to bomb the American Em-
bassy in Beirut. Yet nothing was
done to beef up security.
What are the latest intelligence
warnings from Lebanon? The assess-
ment is that Assad 'believes, he can
drive the Americans-and Israelis out
of Lebanon by inflicting a few casu-
alties. He is expected, therefore, to
continue encouraging the attacks on
U.S. and Israeli positions.
As pressure mounts on the Amer.
icans and Israelis to leave, Gemayel's
government will fall, I . predict, and-
will be replaced by a pro-Syrian, i
pro-Soviet government.
I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/04/13: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100140032-4