ISRAELI INVASION SETS SOOTHSAYERS TO SEARCHING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000100150088-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 29, 2012
• Sequence Number: 88
• Publication Date: June 18, 1982
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
~ Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/29 :CIA-RDP90-009658000100150088-2
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Israeli Invasion
Sets Soothsayers
To Searching
THE WASHINGTON POST
18 June 1982
River and Beaufort l;astle. Most of
the population, largely Catholic, will
be driven out, as in 1978.
"It is unlikely that Israel will allow
United Nations. peacekeeping forces
in the expanded Haddad corridor,
nor is it likely that the nations con-
tributing to the forces will wish to
maintain troops in Lebanon under
the circumstances.
"Syrian forces are unlikely to se-
riously engage Israel, except in
demonstrative air intercepts, unless
Israeli forces penetrate Bekaa Val-
ley. Even demonstrative actions have
potential for escalation, of course."
Other estimates warn that full-
scale Syrian-intervention might well
occur if local Syrian commanders
elect to attack the wide-ranging Is-
raeli troops; in this situation, the
entire Syrian army could' be dragged
into the conflict. 'And because the
Syrians are no match for Israeli
forces, this leads to the most omi-
nous short-term prediction of all: "In
the event of a serious threat to the
Syrian government, direct Soviet
intervention becomes a distinct like-
lihood."
Now for the long-range predic-
tions:
"Israel will continue to supply
arms to Phalangist [right-wing
Christian] forces in the north. The
combination of increased Phalangist
military strength, the weakened Pal-
estinian position and the influx of
refugees to the north is explosive,
and may reignite the civil war.
Within hours after the Israeli in-
vasion of Lebanon, the State Depart-
ment threw together a "crisis task
force" of its top Mideast specialists
to give President Reagan and his
foreign policy advisers the answer to
the big question: what -will happen
next?
Based on their years of expertise
in the arcane business of linking
cause and effect in the tumultuous
Middle East, the analysts produced
their best estimate of the likely turn
of events. One of these estimates,
stamped "Secret," was shown to my
associate Dale Van Atta.
The report breaks down the
soothsayers' conclusions into short-
term and long-term possibilities. In
appraising the clarity of the experts'
crystal ball, it is important to re-
member that these are the forecasts
the White House relies on to plan
U.S. responses in this vital part of
the world.
First, the short-term predictions,
which were made 10 days ago:
"Israel will expand the `Free Leb-
anon' corridor nominally controlled
by Maj. [Seed] Haddad's militia to
include, at a minimum, the Litani
"Much depends on the restrictigns
placed on Haddad's forces after ~lae
main elements of the IDF (Israeli
Defense Force] have withdraw. ~In
the past, Israel has encouragedl-Iad-
dad's unprovoked attacks - oQ ~-
banese civilian targets as a raea~of
increasing popular resentment
against the Palestinians: ~ ~~~-~ ,
"European frustration with Atrr[e}-
ican initiatives in the Middle~~East
will probably result in a re~ae~aed
European initiative. ~i~,:~
"Further American .efforts . ba+i;e~-
terest moderate Arab nations Iri the
Camp David formula would pi+ci#~a-
bly becounterproductive. ' ???~:~
"The future of the . Palestine= );~5-
eration Organization is uncert~Yi -~f
[Yasser] Arafat falls, tke Paleat~nian
movement will probably disintegl~e
into radical splinter groups :. ? "":
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/29 :CIA-RDP90-009658000100150088-2