ARMS TALKS STRATEGY: BARGAINING RANGES WIDELY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000302240027-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 14, 2012
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: March 21, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/14: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302240027-5
N
\'E1' YORK TI"TS
1 "larch 19S5
Arms Talks Strategy:
Bar ainin Ranges WIdJy
c>~s setbael< Mroew I Seea Center and former head of Soviet intel-
n e genoa
~~ oe or the cetitim
l
,
y
arnw e. sr u.. ,e ft MM, The virtual
of foreign and American experts is that
A. the
h
M
arc
organ Adm Adminis and
the Soviet i Moscow has lost the first rand. The issue is whether the Rue-
p their t for the sians will be smarter and bolder than in
Union gear up their strataatl for the British and Wag Germans . b en's the pafft," be said. "They have to make
current atone Caotzol mgodatiom, the nouncedtheirsupport serious.,.enougb offers on offensive
bargaining goes well beyond the the mx plans for as space-based defense sys?. convince people that deal
changes behind closed doors in Geneva tam - as long as Moscow is unable to tom would be possible if not for the a deal
to the poltticai arena of show haw resttiWens on research can gallon's insistence on Star Wan.
the United States and be monitored and as long as future do-
News Western Europe. ployments of defensive systems are "They
., is going to be made the subject of negotiations. - does not oblige them to put their best
fought out to western The Soviet union came back to the otters on offensive weapons on the
newspapers and legisla point over the mod- First, its sego. table. Their problem is that they don't
live bodies," said an Administation of Bator, Viktor P. Karpov. said ontelevl- want topay a lot on offense to get the
tidal. "It will not be settled by the vision that the United States was break- United States to forgo defense, and
force of logic and reason to Geneva. jug an accord to stop the arms race to they don't want to be forced to engage
As American officials and foreign space along with limiting strategic and in all-out competition on defense."
diplomats see it, the key will be which medium-range nuclear forces. This Mr. Horelick's reckoning is that Mas-
side is able to convince western public linkage bad been agreed to by Secre- col is unlikely to walk out on the talks
opinion t h a t t h e o t h e r is notnegodating t a r t' o f state George P. S h u l t z and For- -gailm as it did December IM. In
seriously. If the Washington win, Moll- eign Minister Andrei A. Gramyloo. walkout vials strengthened themselves
cow may have to come around. If not, Mr. Karpov's aomplaiat was a felt that the
hand
President Reagan will find himself pealed the nest day in Pravda, the
trapped either into making oonoessiaos Communist Party For ibeir part, America officials ex-
DOWBPWW
orlookingliioetheobstaclempeace..-. Mr. Shultz, according to American pr= confidence in their MOW for
the nest several months and as
ai
i
tun
et
As of Tuesday, the Senate was will-, trategy, said Sunday that the sov
tog to give him the benefit of the doubt Union's charges belied Its espreadaos Macaw does not take the
is its vote to appr we a second of serious and he, in tuna, repented with a new compromise peeposaL
batch of 21 MX mfasiles, the new 106: metier that the Soviet Union had - Meanwhile. the sA icam ameeltu
warhead ICBM's being .deployed to violated misting arms pacts. play a arong h means persuading the on Rasgim , am -W
the
i
nd
O
wvaay now.
n eta ep
c mss a
ax- L . Action a Factor"-'.: ' - !months. American otfldab do not o bombea,'!t cans f!or -mytng that any Also Tuesday, the Belgian. Par _ ? pert Moscow to abandon its altidsm of one of several path to deep Mlatetioos
moot showed .some slceptidsm' of . the spaosbased deteme Plans. would be ocoeptable, wtthost spaetly-
Soviet motives whm it authorized the The Americas believe that if the Soviet Union's effort fails, it will switch log American coooessims. On
Government to deploy 16 new Amer- to emphasis from wee weapon to medium-range torosa, it will mean re-
icon medium-range cruise mmiadia on the issue of medium-range fo'nnes, the iterating the offer for equality at mix.
and condemnatory. issue of concern to western Europa silos in Europe, with Mosca- allowed
predictably By this analysis, the Soviet Union's to deploy additional mmalin being st- The essence of the American Far- strategy would than be to offer a deal Asia, a number about equal to British
lane, ev, onation by Robert C. Mca a that it believes the western Europeans and French missiles.`.
lanethe national security adviser, in a --r* retuse and than use them Public expressions of optimism
reomt briefing, is to be flexible on ,
, pressthelUnitedStatestornakscOMOM aside, Administrariao of ficias display
strategic and medium-range weapons c weapons and on no optimism . about Moscow's going
atategi
slang. Their immediate concern is
and to stress the futuristic nature of I snore on
" whether Congress will go along - with
space-based defenses. In other words,
k "' wars
.
popularly
rid of e:uture threats now and the MX missile and with the caminE
A possible Soviet approach was sug
space-based defame plan.
worry about tenure problems later. . orelick. `7
The Soviet union, on the other hand, et
faces what officials on both sides judge
I duce offensive weapons. Right or
wrong, experts on both sides see this as
a sophisticated argument, that will be
hard to sell publicly... -
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/14: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302240027-5