SOVIETS PLANS SURPASS LIMITS CALLED FOR IN MISSILE TREATY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000302330072-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 72
• Publication Date: June 25, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302330072-5 STAT
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WASHINGTON TIMES
25 June 1985
Soviets '
plans surpass limits called
for in missile treaty
By Bill Gertz
E WASHINGTON TIMES
The Central Intelligence Agency
is expected to release its annual esti-
mate of Soviet weapons growth
tomorrow in what the Reagan
administration regards as the most
dismal projection to date of a U.S.-
Soviet military imbalance, accord-
ing to an administration defense
expert.
The estimate says the Soviet
Union is likely to deploy a nation-
wide mobile anti-ballistic missile
defense system in 1986, according to
the official.
The ABM modernization is
described as the "rapid deployment
of the ABM-3 mobile ABM system
on a nationwide basis in 1986:' the
administration official said.
The Soviet Union has cited the
terms of the 1972 ABM treaty in a
propaganda offensive against Pres-
ident Reagan's Strategic Defense-
Initiative. If SDI research moves to
the deployment stage, Moscow
claims the system would violate the
ABM treaty.
"The Soviets will have a nation-
wide ABM system operational by
1987, when the Moscow ABM-3 is
completed and the Pechora-class
[ABM) radars are completed;' the
administration official said. Three
thousand mobile ABM interceptors
will be operational by 1987, the offi-
cial said.
Based on the new intelligence
estimate, the official concluded that
Soviet plans to exceed the ABM
treaty limits are "already visible."
A declassified version of the
National Intelligence Estimate,
numbered 11-3-8-85, is to be made
public tomorrow at a joint Senate
hearing of the Defense Appropri-
ations Subcommittee and the Armed
Services Committee.
The new study outlines the cur-
rent U.S. view of trends in Soviet
weapons developments, primarily
dealing with strategic missile and
launcher programs, the official said.
A product of the combined U.S. intel-
ligence community, it is produced
annually in order to provide the
president with an assessment of
Soviet military deployment and
development trends.
Besides the CIA, other intelli-
gence agencies contributing to the
estimate are the National Recon-
naissance Office, which handles sat-
ellite photographs, the National
Security Agency, the Defense Intel-
ligence Agency and several other
organizations.
Other key forecasts on strategic
weapons programs include:
? By 1990, the Soviets will have
deployed 700 new SS-24 and SS-25
ICBMs, all with "rapid reload and
refire capability."
? The Soviets have begun mass
producing the new Delta IV ballistic
missile submarines capable of car-
rying 10-warhead SS-NX-23 mis-
siles. Typhoon-class submarines are
also entering mass production with
four new subs under construction.
? A new "stretch Yankee-class"
submarine capable of launching
supersonic SSN-24 cruise missiles
will become operational this year.
Modified versions of the SSN-18,
SSN-20 and SSNX-23 are also
expected to be flight tested this year.
? Over the next decade, the Sovi-
ets are expected to greatly expand
their strategic air forces by produc-
ing up to 140 Bear H Th-95 bombers
capable of delivering long-range
cruise missiles. Forty Bear bombers
have already been detected as oper-
ational.
? Production rates for the Back-
fire bomber will continue at 30 per
year through the 1990s.
? A production facility for the
Blackjack bomber is "almost com-
plete," and U.S. intelligence expects
production will begin sometime
before the end of this year.
? A new generation of short-range
and intermediate-range nuclear
missiles is undergoing flight tests at
a Soviet test range.
? In the next five years, "over
3,000" cruise missiles will be
deployed.
The new assessment projects that
Soviet spending on weapons will
increase by 4 percent to 6 percent
throughout the 1990s, according to
an administration official familiar
with the estimate.
By contrast, the Congress is
pressing the administration to
freeze Pentagon defense spending at
current levels.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302330072-5