SALT GIVES SOVIETS AN EDGE, CIA SAYS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000302330078-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 78
• Publication Date: May 29, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302330078-9
WASHINGTON TIMES
29 May 1985
an edge, CIA says.
SALT gives Soviets
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
The Soviet Union will hold a sig-
nificant nuclear warhead advantage
over the United States in the next
five years if President Reagan com-
plies with terms of the unratified
SALT II treaty and dismantles sev-
eral U.S. missile systems, according
to secret CIA reports.
The CIA estimates, along. with
other classified government doc-
uments obtained by The Washington
Times, challenge a fundamental ele-
ment of the 'United States' three-
pronged nuclear deterrent strategy
composed of missiles, submarines
and bombers.
U.S. compliance with the SALT II
limitations, if combined with Soviet
ABM violations, would undermine
this country's ability to penetrate
Soviet defenses by way of close
range nuclear submarines, the doc-
uments conclude.
Both the United States and the
Soviet Union have said they will,
observe the provisions of the treaty i
after it expires at the end of this
year. The treaty was never ratified
by the Senate. However, under an
amendment to last year's Defense,
Department authorization bill, Pres-
ident Reagan has until this Saturday.
to report to Congress on whether or
not the administration will continue
to abide by the limits of the 1979
SALT 11 treaty.
The formulas limiting the num-
bers of weapons in the SALT treaty,
while complex, were laboriously
negotiated to serve as the key ele-
ments moderating the superpower
arms race.
If the president agrees to follow
the SALT II provisions, the United
States has two choices. Both involve
a combination of Poseidon subma-
rines and Minuteman missiles. The
choices would involve dismantling a
maximum of three Poseidon-class
nuclear missile submarines or retir-
ing up to 50 Minuteman III missiles
within the next year. The total num-
ber of warheads that would be
deactivated would be about 630.
The Soviets, to comply with SALT
11 over the next year, would only have '
to deactivate 115 warheads on four
Yankee-class submarines, two Hotel-
class submarines and 45 SS-11 mis-
siles.
During the period between 1985
and 1991, the CIA estimates, the
United States, under the two options
available to to it, would deactivate
1,500 to 2,500 warheads, compared
to only 500 warheads removed from
the Soviet missile arsenal.
Related studies indicate that by
1988 the United States under SALT
II restraints would have eliminated
a total of about 1,200 multiple war-
head weapons to a Soviet cutback of
only 153 multiple warheads.
Only after 1990 will Soviet con-
straints under SALT significantly
differ from non-SALT deployments,
according to these documents.
One estimate shows the CIA
believes that in 1990 the Soviets
would have 11.500 to 12,500 nuclear
missile warheads without abiding
by SALT constraints and 10,500 to
11,500 warheads if SALT II levels are
observed.
In contrast, U.S. missile warheads
would total about 8.500 under a SALT
II breakout program involving the
deployment of the MX and Midget-
man intercontinental ballistic mis-
siles (ICBM).
Assuming U.S. compliance with
the SALT II restrictions and an
administration decision to deacti-
vate 10 Poseidon submarines, the
United States would reduce its war-
heads to a number less than the cur-
rent number of warheads in its
entire missile arsenal despite cur-
rent and planned strategic modern-
ization programs.
Of the two SALT compliance
options. administration sources said
dismantling the Poseidon subma-
rines is preferred because the Navy
does not want to rebuild the nuclear
reactors of the 10 Poseidon subma-
rines slated for deactivation.
Sources said the cost of
rebuilding the Poseidon reactor
would be $2 billion - the same as the
cost of one Trident-class submarine
that will replace the Poseidons as
they are taken out of service.
Removal of the Poseidons, which
have a capability of carrying 160
warheads, would diminish the num-
ber of U.S. warheads by 1,600 after
all the submarines were deac-
tiviated.
The first of the 'Trident subma-
rines, the USS Alaska, is scheduled
for its sea trials in August. When
fully in commission, the subma-
rine's armament would put the
United States in excess of the SALT
limits by 14 missiles. One Trident
carries 192 warheads.
:S
11 ' WARHEAD DISADVANTAGE
UNDER -SALT,11 r._
COMPARISON OF U.S ANDSOVIET.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/10: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302330078-9