KREMLIN SUCCESSION UNDERLINES ENIGMAS FOR U.S. INTELLIGENCE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000302640001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 20, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 23, 1984
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/20: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302640001-9
NEW YORK TITS
23 December 1984
Western forecasts about successions
Kremlin Succession in the Kremlin are uskaally made on the
basis of such surface factors as histori-
u
cal precedent, public remarks and ap-
aderlines Enigmas
For U.S. Intelligence
By BERNARD GWERTZMAN
Special to The New York Times 1
WASHINGTON, Dec. 22 ? United
States Government officials said today
that the naming of Marshal Sergei L.
Sokolov as the new Soviet Defense
Minister underscored the difficulty of
forecasting the highly secret decisions
of the Soviet leadership.
Analysts in the State Department
and Central Intelligence Agency said
Friday that the front-runner to succeed
Marshal Dmitri F. Ustinov as Defense
Minister appeared to be Grigory V.
.;.".ornanov a infrnber of the rullqg
Communist Party Politburo who had
been chief of the Leningrad Communist
7,e:7.1:atter was voiced
by ,;e::,tern cl:n;o77W..i.S in Moscow.
The erroneous forecast about Mr.
Romanov seemed to underscore a com-
plaint often made by senior policy-
makers about the Government's inabil?
ity to pierce the inner workings of th
Soviet Politburo and Secretariat.
A month ago many American ana-i
lysts said that if Marshal Ustinov, who
was then reported to be seriously ill
ded soon, he would be replaced by
Marshal Sokolov. Marshal Sokolov, as
First Deputy Defense Minister, ha
been substituting for Marshal Ustinov
at occasions on which the Defense
Minister's presence was required.
But on Friday these officials revised
their views. They said the choice of Mr.
Romancv to head Marshal Ustinov's
funeral commission was evidence that
he would probably succeed the Defense
Minister. One senior analyst said that
"Sokolov was always on my list," but
he acknowledged that he was per-
suaded Friday that Mr. Romanov
would get the job.
pearances, and only rarely on direct in-
formation.
Marshal Ustinov was head of the fu-
neral commission for his- predecessor,
Marshal Andrei A. -Grechko, who died
in 1976. Marshal Grechko, in turn, was
bead of the funeral commission when
his predecessor, Marshal Rodion Y.
Malinovsky, died in 1967.
The analysts also noted that Yuri V.
Andropov was head of the funeral com-
mission for his predecessor, Leonid I.
Brezhnev. Konstantin U. Chernenko
was head of the funeral commission for
Mr. Andropov and was then named to
replace him as the top Soviet leader.
Speaking today of Mr. Romanov's
role in the Ustinov funeral, one Amer-
ican official said, "I guess the reason
he headed the funeral commission was
that they wanted a Politburo member
to be in charge of the commission for
another Politburo member,"noting
that both men were members of the
Communist Party policy-making body
that is the effective Cabinet.
Choice of Civilian Expected
The analysts said they had viewed
Mr. Romanov as the likely choice for
Defense Minister because they be-
lieved the Soviet Union would continue I
naming civilians to the post, as was
done in 1976 when Mr. Ustinov, a civil- I
ian, was given the military rank of ,
marshal as he took over what had 1
traditionally been a position reserved '
for a career military officer.
The Washington Soviet-watchers had
also said that if Mr. Romanov went to
the Defense Ministry that would have,
in effect, taken him out of contention as
a successor to Mr. Chernenko, the 73- ,
year-old Soviet leader, leaving Mikhail
S. Gorbachev, 53, as the chief heir ap-
parent with little or no competition.
Only three of the eleven current;
members of the Politburo also are na-
tional party secretaries, members of
the Communist Party Secretariat, the
executive organ that runs the day-to-
day affairs of the Soviet Union. Mar-
shal Ustinov was a member of the
Politburo but not of the Secretariat'
Succession Precedents
The three men who are members of
both groups are Mr. ROMEUI0V, Mr.
Gorbachev and Mr. Chernenko, the
General Secretary of the party. Had
Mr. Romanov become Defense Minis-
ter, he would have been expected -to
give up his post as a national party sec-
retary. Since no one has become the
General Secretary, the supreme Soviet
leader, without first having been a na-
tional party secretary, this could have
had important ramifications.
"We have to assume that he has
ambitions for the top," a State Depart-
ment official said of Mr. Romanov. The
experts agreed today that Mr. Gorba-
chev, who made a favorable impres-
sion cn British leaders during his visit
to London, is still the leading candidate
to replace Mr. Chernenko if the Soviet
leader is forced to step down soon. But
they said Mr. Romanov, who has been
in charge of military industries, would
have to be considered a contender. 1
?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/20: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302640001-9