CIA, DEFENSE UNIT DIFFER ON SOVIET ARMS BUDGET

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000403270015-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 9, 2012
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: February 26, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/09: CIA-RDP90-00965R000403270015-3
pn Soviet awns bu
CIA, defense unit differ
by Fred Kaplan
Globe Staff
WASHINGTON - A dispute has
broken out within the US intelli-
gence community over an assess-
ment of trends in Soviet military. spending.
The CIA says Soviet weapons
purchases may have risen slightly
in 1983, with emphasis on the
words "may" and "slightly." Its
main conclusion is that the Sovi-
ets have not increased spending
on weapons systems much at all'
since 1976.
On the other hand, the Penta-
gon's Defense Intelligence Agency
says Soviet weapons purchases al-
most certainly rose quite sharply
in 1983. and concludes that this
marks a new trend toward major
boosts in Soviet spending in the
future.
This dispute was made public
in ironic and almost accidental
fashion yesterday. at a Pentagon
press conference called to deny re-
ports of a disagreement between
the two intelligence agencies.
Last week, Sen. William Prox-
mire (D-Wis.) released a CIA study
concluding that Soviet military
spending had increased by only 2
percent in 1982 and that spending
lysts - speaking to the press on
condition that they not be identi-
fied - said the CIA study should
not be interpreted to mean that
Soviet spending on weapons bad
declined. Rather, they said, spend-
ing had sharply increased from
the mid-1960s to mid-1970s and
then remained steady at a very
high level. Thus, even with no an-
nual growth in arms production.
the Soviets could still build a lot of
This point was made in the CIA
study and in most news stories
about it.
Upon questioning, however,
the analysts disclosed a fairly sub-
stantial dispute between. the CIA
and DIA over Soviet weapons pro-
' duction in 1983. The CIA thinks
Soviet spending on weapons for
that year, as measured in dollars.
probably grew but by no more
than 1 or 2 percent. By contrast,
the DIA says it grew by 5 to ,8 per-
BOSTON GLOBE
26 February, 1985
cent.
- The CIA study said the view
that there had been any growth
was "tentative." and offered three
possible interpretations of the
data. The estimate. based on in-
complete data. could be wrong: the
level of growth might lie "within
the range of the year-to-year flue-
The estimate has s rong p
- tuations of the previous six years
cal implications. It will certainly and does not signify a new trend,"
be cited by legislators who want to, or it might indicate a "return to
cut the US defense budget. which
the Reagan Administration wants
to increase next year by 6.6 per-
cent beyond inflation.
Yesterday. US intelligence ana-
on weapons systems had not in-
creased at all. The study further
said this had been the case for
each year since 1977.
t liti-
o
more rapid growth" in Soviet
weapons production.
However, the study strongly
suggested the last possibility was
the least likely, and said the "stag-
nation" in arms production may
have been a deliberate policy deci-
sion by the Kremlin to allocate
more resources to the Soviet civil-
ian economy.
The DIA, on the other hand, ac-
cording to the analysts at yester-
day's press conference, believes
not only- that growth in Soviet
weapons spending for 1983 was
higher than the C1A believes, but
also that the growth marks a re-
sumption of much higher spend-
ing by the Soviet military in the
years to come.
Both intelligence agencies see
evidence of new and expensive So-
viet weapons being developed and
tested. However. CIA and DIA dis-
agree over when, and how quick-
ly, these new systems will be
moved into operation. The ana-
lysts say this is the basic source of
the dispute.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/09: CIA-RDP90-00965R000403270015-3