CIA STUDY SHOWS 2% RISE IN SOVIET MILITARY BUDGET

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000403270016-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 9, 2012
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: February 22, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/09: CIA-RDP90-00965R000403270016-2
ARTICLE APPEARED BOSTON GLOBE
QN PA s. 22 February 1985
CIA study shows
2% rise in Soviet
military budge
By Fred Kaplan
Globe Staff
WASHINGTON - The Soviet military
budget has grown by only 2.percent a
year since 1976 and Soviet spending on
weapons systems since then has not
grown at all. according to a Central Intel-
ligence Agency report released yesterday.
The report notes that even with the
stagnation, "spending levels were so
high that the [Soviet] defense establish-
meat was able to continue to modernize
its forces and to enhance substantially
its military capabilities."
Still, the Soviets appear to be produc-
ing far fewer weapons than they did in
1966-76, the report says, when the Sovi-
et military budget was routinely increas-
ing at a rate of 4-5 percent a year.
The CIA reported.the same estimate
last, year. but it was dismissed by De-
fense Secretary Caspar Weinberger as a
temporary aberration. reflecting a pause
between the dismantling of old weapons
EL 0&L
Proxmire (D-Wis.), a subcommittee chair-
man.
Weinberger has frequently said the
Soviet arms arsenal is expanding at "un-
precedented" rates as an argument to
justify high levels of growth in US de-
fense spending. He it requesting 6.6 per-
cent real growth In defense budget au-
thority for fiscal year 1986.
Proxmire said yesterday, "It is time
for Washington to take official notice
that Soviet military procurement has
been stagnant for the past seven years,
and to stop acting like nothing has
changed."
The report says weapons procure-
ment in 1983 "may have experienced
some modest growth over 1982." Howev-
er. it emphasizes this conclusion is "ten-
tative" and attributes it to one of three
possibilities. The tentative figure may be
revised downward "as we collect more
information about the pace of weapons
production." which- is what happened
last year. Or the modest growth may "lie
within the range of the year-to-year fluc-
tuations of the previous six years and
does not signify a new trend." Or it may
be "an early indicator of a return to more
rapid growth." .
The report gives two possible reasons
for the general stagnation in Soviet
weapons purchases. "The Soviets could
be experiencing some difficulty ... in
solving technological problems encoun-
tered in producing new weapons," com-
pounded by "shortages of key materials
and transportation problems that affect-
ed much of Soviet industry since the
1970s. "
Or. the report suggests, the decline
may have been a deliberate decision by
the Soviet leadership to divert resources
from the military to the civilian econo-
my. "Whatever the reason for the contin-
ued restraint on military procurement,"
the report says, "it did give the economy
some breathing space."
systems and the beginnings of new ones.
However. the new CIA report contradicts
this argument, stating. "The stagnation
In the level of Soviet weapons procure-
ment lasted for at least seven years -
from 1977 to 1983. This plateau argu-
ably lasted too long to be the result exclu-
sively of bottlenecks or technological
problem
"In a period so long, the leadership of
the Soviet Union could have used its con-
trol of industrial priorities to ensure a
higher rate of growth.... Older-genera-
tion weapons could have been kept in
production while problems with new sys-
tems were ironed out. or once the prob-
lems were overcome, the new systems
could have been produced at catch-up
rates. We believe they chose to pursue
neither alternative."
The report was presented to the con-
ressional Joint Economic Committee in
November by Robert Gates, the IA's
deputy director for intelligence. It was
only recently declassified and was pub-
liciv released yesterday by Sen. William
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/09: CIA-RDP90-00965R000403270016-2