U.S. STUDY FINDS A SOVIET ICBM IS LESS OF A THREAT TO MISSLE SILOS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000403310030-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 9, 2012
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: July 19, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/09: CIA-RDP90-00965R000403310030-1
NEW YORK TIM
19-July 1985
ON PAI
U.S. Study Finds a Soviet ICBM
Is Less of a Thredt to Missile Sil
WASHINGTON, July 18 - Umtea
States intelligence officials, in a re-
vised assessment of a Soviet missile
known as t$ SS-19, now believe that it
isipo inaccurate to pose a threat to
American missile silos, Administra-
tion sources said today.
The .now appraisal, which differs
from assessments by the Pentagon, is
contained In a secret report, the Na-
tional Intellt 'ra Estimate, which is
prepared once a year by the Central In-wa. we
WIN"" k lute sees
Administration sources said that the
Pentagon's Defense Intellence
Agency disesgpd In a footnote to the
documait and ssosd by' cart l esti.
mates of the missile's accuracy.
The purported capacity of the SS-19,
an intercontinental ballistic missile, to,
destroy united States missile silo has
been an important political factor in
American arms control considerations
and in the campaign to build an Amer-
ican counterpart, the MX.
offic cancce revisethe d estimate of S~S.19
capabilities was minimal because an-
other Soviet ICBM, the SS-18, is be-
lieved accurate enough to threaten
missile silos.
The revised estimate of the SS-19 was
first reported by Michael R. Gordon in
an article to be published Friday in the
weekly magazine National Journal.
The information was confirmed today
by Administration sources.
Some Officials Draw a Lesson
Present and former Government of-
ficials said one lesson to be drawn from
the new estimate is that intelligence re.
ports used as the basis for major deci-
sions often seem fragile and umcertafat.
The intelligence agencies generally
rely on the same data - in this case,
observations of Soviet missile tests -
but differ in interpretation.
A former national security official,
referring to the revised estimate, said,
"It shakes my confidence in our ability
to know what the Soviets are doing."
The Pentagon estimates that the
Soviet Union has deployed 300 SS-19
missiles with six warheads each, a
total of 1,190 warheads. The 308 SS-18
missiles have 10 warheads each, a total
of 3,080.
In 1977, the Central Intelligence
Agency said the accuracy of the two
missiles was improving faster than ex-
pected, posing the danger that by the
early 1980', or sooner, they would be
By sill. [ELLER
SP9" ft '[10 Niw Yart harms
able to wipe out. the 1,000 American
Minuteman missile silos in a pre-emp
tive strike.
That estimate was central to the
view that the United States faced a
"wir#dow of vulnerability."
It also influenced President Carter's
approach
the arm control talks, of.
ficials said. The American negotiators
had initially focused attention on the
SS-18, and sought to negotiate a treaty
limiting. the size And destructive paws=
of missiles. But after the C.I.A. esti-
mate of 1977, the Carter Administra-
tion accepted an overall limit on numi-
bers of multiple-warhead missiles and,
because of Soviet resistance, at aside
efforts to limit destructive power
The 1977 estimate has continued to be
Influential. The Joint Chiefs of Staff
told Congress in February in a report
on the American. military posture:
"Today, the most accurate versions
of:- the- SS-18 and SS-19 missiles are
capable of destroying most time-ur-
gent and hardened targets in an initial
attack on the United States."
Defense Secretary Caspar W. Wen.
berger has frequently cited the ac-
curacy two missiles in the same
breath when
arguing for she MX. A
major justification for the MX has been
the need to match the silo-killing abil.
ity of the two Soviet missiles.
Administration officials said the new
estimate of the SS-19 was open to inter-
pretation, but one official said the best
estimate of the missile's abilities was
significantly lower than earlier esti-
mates.
The National Journal article quotes a
Pentagon official as saying that the
new estimate had reduced the pro-
jhject a thb racy " of the SS-19 by "better
The technical measure of missile ac-
curacy is called circular error prob-
ability, which is the radius of a circle
within which a warhead has a 50 per-
cam probability Journal said the revised "esti-
mate had extended the radius from
1,000 feet to 11,,3a099 feet. Administration
officials NationalsJournal figures.
A Pentagon official familiar with the
report said that ,even if the estimate
was acedrate, it would still leave the
Soviet Union with 3,000 more accurate
warheads on SS-18 missiles, or three
for every, Minuteman silo.
One Administration arms control
specialist said the new estimate might
give the United States more time for
missile moderasation and might be
used to defend the Administration's
plan to put the MX missiles in fixed
silos. Critics have said that the MX
would be a sitting duck in fixed silo be-
causs of the accuracy of the Soviet mis-
silee-
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/09: CIA-RDP90-00965R000403310030-1