REAGAN THREAT TO EXCEED SALT II CURBS MIGHT CAUSE SOVIETS TO FORGO '86 SUMMIT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000403340009-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2012
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: July 1, 1986
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/28: CIA-RDP90-00965R000403340009-2
ARTICLE APPEARED
IM POGE 3 / ~ - ~_- _....
Reagan Threat to Exceed SALT II Curbs
Might Cause Soviets to Forgo '86 Summit
BY Fm zcx KzW9
Staff Reporter of Tni W*w. Srnzszer Jovzvvwz.
WASHINGTON - President Reagan's
threat to exceed the limits of the SALT II
arms-control treaty at year's end might
cause Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to
back out of his commitment to a 1986 sum-
mit, a senior administration official said.
U.S. officials said the Soviets are wor-
ried about possible embarrassment should
the U.S. begin exceeding the treaty's arms
limits at just the time the two sides hope to
hold a new superpower summit. They sug-
gested such concerns may have prompted
Mr. Gorbachev's unexpected proposal over
the weekend that U.S. and Soviet officials
meet this month to discuss the Reagan ad-
ministration's policy on SALT II.
The meeting would be a special session
of the Standing Consultative Commission,
a body of American and Soviet govern-
ment experts assigned to deal with adher-
ence to arms control.
Chilly Reaction
U.S. officials said they hadn't decided
how to respond, but their initial reaction
was chilly. President Reagan, on boarding
Air Force One in California to return to
Washington from vacation, said, "Too
much SALT isn't good for you."
And White House spokesman Larry
Speakes said that although the administra-
tion hadn't decided what to do, "it's not
unprecedented to decline." In 1983, Mos-
cow declined to attend a meeting re-
quested by the U.S. to discuss alleged So-
viet violations.
Some U.S. officials are worried that a
Reagan-Gorbachev summit could be post-
poned if the U.S. continues to turn a cold
shoulder to Moscow. "Gorbachev couldn't
politically afford to come here immedi-
ately after, or before, the U.S. exceeded
the SALT II numerical limits," said a se-
nior administration analyst.
Polarization Cited
But, this official said, the administra-
tion is polarized over how to respond to the
Soviet leader's latest arms proposals and
his invitation to the July meeting.
Attending a summit at a time the U.S.
might be breaching SALT II arms limits
would be "political suicide" for Mr. Gorba-
chev, according to the administration ana-
lyst. The Soviet leader "must see progress
early enough in advance so he can ensure
when he gets here he won't be abused," he
added. "Whether or not the summit pro-
cess survives is on the table."
Administration officials suggested Mr.
Gorbachev wants to force Mr. Reagan ei-
ther to commit to an arms-control process
that would constrain the development of
space defense weapons or to agree he
won't exceed the SALT II arms limits any
time near the expected date for a second
summit. If the U.S. isn't forthcoming, one
official says it would be politically easier
for Mr. Gorbachev to postpone a summit
beyond the end of the year.
Staying Within Limits
The administration plans in December
to equip its 131st B-52 to carry cruise mis-
siles, a move that would put the U.S. over
the SALT II limits unless it takes a Posei-
don submarine out of commission. U.S. of-
ficials said the administration easily could
stay within the limits of the unratified
arms treaty simply by postponing deploy-
ment of the cruise-missile B-52s until the
expected decommissioning of aging Poset-
dons early next year.
Arnold Ho lick. a Rand Cori official
and senior Soviet analvst at the Central In-
telli ence A nc said the U.S. still could
make com n to a summit more ata e
for Mr. Gorbachev despite res en a-
I
treaty.
"I think he (Gorbachev) wants at the
very least to be assured, whether the U.S.
calls it compliance or not, that President
Reagan does not exceed the limits pre-
cisely at a time when they get together,"
Mr. Horelick said. This analyst argued the
U.S. also could ease Mr. Gorbachev's fears
by showing willingness to accept some con-
straints on the "Star Wars" anti-missile
defense research program in exchange for
deep cuts in Soviet offensive weapons.
Western diplomats in Moscow said Mr.
Gorbachev was criticized in his country's
military circles for having come away with
too little from his last superpower summit,
and for essentially accepting Mr. Reagan's
agenda. These observers suggested Mr.
Gorbachev managed to weather such criti-
cism because Soviet officials were pleased,
after years of ailing leadership, just to see
their leader meet as an equal on the inter-
national stage with the U.S. president. But
they warned that Mr. Gorbachev wouldn't
be able to accept so little at his second
summit.
President Reagan and Mr. Gorbachev
agreed at their last summit meeting to
meet in Washington in 1986 and then in
Moscow the following year.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/28: CIA-RDP90-00965R000403340009-2