U.S. OFFICIALS SEE GORBACHOV AS A TOUGHER ADVERSARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000504010008-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 20, 2012
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: March 12, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/20: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504010008-7
ARTICLE APPEAMM
ON PA(llr V- A
WASHINGTON - U.S. officials see
`'Mikhail S. Gorbachov, 54, the new
leader of the Soviet Union, as a
tougher, more aggressive competitor
.than any they have faced since the
-'late Leonid I. Brezhnev was at the
peak of his powers, in the late 1970s.
"Gorbachov is no patsy," said one.
"Just because a guy has a sense of
humor doesn't mean he's a liberal."
The image of Gorbachov as a good-
time charmer who might look a little
more kindly toward the West sur-
faced late last year when he made a
highly publicized trip to London - a
trip the media gave generally posi-
tive reviews.
Said an intelligence analyst "Till e
fact that he has a Pleasant even
charming Personality doesn't mean
that he will be less of a dan er to U.S.
interests."
Nesident Reagan himself said yes-
terday that the United States did not
expect fundamental changes in So-
viet policy in the short term with
Gorbachov's ascension to power.,
But the long run, many officials
here believe, could be quite differ.
ent.
Because of Gorbachov's age, intel-
ligence and drive, officials think
that he may have a better chance to
consolidate power and put his own
stamp on Soviet policies then any
Soviet leader since Stalin.
Officials also do not think that the
death of Soviet President Konstantin
U. Chernenko Sunday night, and the
selection of Gorbachov as his succes-
sor, will affect prospects in a new
round of arms-control talks sched-
uled to open today in Geneva.
They note that prospects for prog-
ress in the talks have never been
considered great and that the Soviet
..By James McCartney
Inquirer Washington Bureau
PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER
12 ~4arch 1985
U.S. officials see Gorbachoy
as a tougher
adversary
Analysis
leadership appears to have devel-
oped a consensus for the talks that is
unlikely to change.
By the standards of Soviet leader.
ship. Gorbachov is known as a rela-
tive moderate - but thatterm can be
misleading.
m in the Soviet l leadership is a relative e prag.
matist, as opposed to several in the
top echelons of power who are
known as hard-line conservative
ideologues.
In suggesting that Gorbachov is a
relative moderate, U.S. Officials do
not mean that he is likely to extend
an olive branch to the West or to
change radically any of the hard-lino
Postures toward the United States
that Soviet officials have adopted ins
recent years.
In spite of the feeling that Gorba?
chov will be a tough competitor, he
has also been the preferred candi?
date of top U.S. officials.
That, however, is because of the
possible alternative. It has been
widely thought here that if Gorba-
chov did not make it, the choice
would be Grigory V. Romanov, 62, a
former Leningrad party leader who
is known as a rough-and-tumble
hard-liner.
Officials' observation that Gorba-
chov may be more of a challenge to
the United States in the long run
than recent leaders is also a com-
mentary on the relative weakness of
recent Soviet leaders.
The country, in fact, has had a
crisis of leadership.
There has not been a truly firm
hand on the tiller since Brezhnev's
health began slipping in the early
19
ber 80s. Brezhnev, who died in Novem.
weak gin his last Years of powers and
was often out of sight.
His u
showedpromi a (initially of a tab-
lishing stong leadership, but he soon
slipped into bad health himself, dy-
ing Feb. 9, 1984. His successor, Cher-
nenko, was in such poor health that
he was never able to establish an
image of firm leadership.
Officials here agree that the funda?
mental nature of the Soviet system,
as it has evolved, is one of "consen.
sus" leadership by members of the
10-member, ruling Politburo and top
officials of the Communist Party.
"We're in for more consensus lead-
ership now," one intelligence ana-
lyst predicted.
But he noted that Gorbachov
would probably have a chance to go
much further in establishi
ng his
own leadership in the years immedi.
ately ahead because so many other
members of the Politburo are so old.
Half the members are 70 or older,
and it may be presumed, this analyst
noted, that several will die or drop
out in the next few years, giving
Gorbachov a chance to put his own
people in top spots and gradually
take complete control.
"It is unlikely he will upset any
apple carts," another official said,
"but he should be able to get control
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/20: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504010008-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/20: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504010008-7
more quickly than, say, Brezhnev -
who required about four or five
years."
There was little question here but
that major decisions about the power
shift in the Soviet Union, and the
quick choice of Gorbachov, were the
result of a carefully developed plan
that probably evolved late last year.
Analysts here believe that the So?
viet ruling elite decided that it had
postponed for long enough the basic
decision of transferring power to a
younger man.
One theory here is that Gorbachov
was dispatched on a trip to London
late last year as a sort of "test" in
diplomatic waters, which he seemed
to pass.
British Prime Minister Margaret
Thatcher glowingly declared that he
was the kind of leader she could do
business with.
Analysts believe that that opinion
was shared by many leaders in the
West - a perception not lost on the
ruling elite back home.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/20: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504010008-7