U.S. EXPECTS LITTLE IMMEDIATE CHANGE IN SOVIET POLICIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000504850049-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 6, 2012
• Sequence Number: 49
• Publication Date: March 12, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/06: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504850049-0 STAT
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WASHINGTON POST
12 March 1985
U.S. Expects Little Immediate
Change in Soviet Policies
By Don Oberdorfer
Washington Post Staff Writer
Administration officials and U.S. analysts said yes-
terday that they foresee little immediate change in the
Soviet Union's arms or other policies because of the
succession there, but that a younger, more vigorous
and probably longer-lasting leader in the Kremlin may
eventually bring important shifts.
President Reagan, setting the tone for the cautious
U'.S. reaction, pledged yesterday to work "with an open
mind" with the Kremlin's new leader, Mikhail Gor-
bachev, in pursuit of arms reductions and improved re-
lations between the two nuclear superpowers.
Reagan, speaking at a White House luncheon for out-
of-town journalists shortly after deciding not to make
the trip to Moscow for the funeral of Soviet President
Konstantin Chernenko, said he would be "more than
ready" to meet Gorbachev when he is settled into the
job. "We must have an agenda, and not just get ac-
quainted," said Reagan of a possible meeting.
In a condolence message to acting head of state Va-
sily Kuznetsov, Reagan said, "Although the problems
which divide our countries are many and complex, we
can and must resolve our differences though dialogue
and negotiation." Reagan said the two arms negotia-
tions delegations sitting down today in Geneva "must
seize the opportunities for peace." He added, "We must
also establish a working relationship that builds greater
trust and cooperation between us."
Reagan, in his remarks to the journalists, suggested
that he does not expect early change in Soviet policies.
"It is collective .... The government basically remains
the same group of individuals," he said.
Secretary of State George P. Shultz, speaking to the
same group of journalists, said the United States will be
working to pursue "a continuation of the constructive
trend that has been in place now, perhaps hesitatingly
... symbolized and made concrete by the agreement
for the resumption of arms control talks."
Gorbachev, said Shultz, "seems to be a dynamic,
strong person." He added, "I do have the feeling ...
that decisions that have been made in recent times have
been collective decisions," and "presumably Mr. Gor-
bachev was part of that process .... He is not sick; he
is a vigorous young man."
U.S. intelligence reported that Chernenko had little
role in olic decisions after his ailments becai'ne more
a minis-
serious in January, according to an informed
tration official.
Gorbachev, according to a State Department source,
has been acting as No. 2 man in the Kremlin since
Chernenko assumed power last February, and increas-
ingly has been called upon to take the top role in Cher-
nenko's absence in recent months.
Evidence of this, the official said, was information
from Soviet sources that Gorbachev had chaired Polit-
buro meetings and meetings of the Central Committee
secretariat when Chernenko was absent.
Another U.S. official said that, for some time, Gor-
bachev has been "really running everything, and build-
ing his base" of authority within the highest circles of
the Communist Party.
The new Soviet leader was described by administra-
tion sources as "somewhat more willing to accept inno-
vations" than Chernenko had been. On this point, the
new leader is described as more likely to resemble
Chernenko's predecessor, Yuri Andropov, who sought
major changes in personnel and practice in the months
before he became ill.
But unlike Andropov, who came to the top job with
immense personal authority because of his previou
leadership o the Soviet intelligence and secret police
organ, the KGB, Gorbachev is believed to have gained
the support o t hers on the Politburo through careful
negotiation and a "nonthreatening" demeanor. This su -
ges s that he will have to-move cautious y.
U.S. government analysts of Soviet affairs cited Gor-
bachev's 1983 trip to Canada and his trip to Britain last
December as indications of his interest in expanding
ties to the West. They cited his close contacts with
Hungarian leaders as suggesting an interest in exper-
iments with a mixture of Marxist and market econom-
ics, such as have been taking place in Hungary.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/06: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504850049-0
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/06: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504850049-0
C, .
The Kremlin's instructions to its nuclear and space
arms negotiators are believed to have been essentially
set for several months under the dominant guidance of
Foreign Minister Andrei A. Gromyko, who has been
acting with growing authority in the foreign policy are-
na.
The Politburo, at its usual weekly meeting last
Thursday, approved the details of the instructions to
the Geneva negotiations, it was announced at that time
in Moscow. But U.S. officials said they assume this was
a formality rather than a sign of serious new decision-
making.
Because the instructions to the negotiators have
been set for some time and because it. will take Gor-
bachev months or even years to cement his authority,
officials said, the opening positions to foe presented by
the Soviet sidl in Geneva in the next few days are un-
likely to be altered in major fashion for a long time.
Secretary of Defense Caspar W. WNeinberger, ad-
dressing the Veterans of Foreign Wars here, said, "My
own personal opinion is that [Chernenko's] death will
not affect the talks very much or the Soviet policy.
"The Soviets are a collective society, a collective
government, and I think it is likely that this possibility,,
of his death was taken into account when the various
instructions have been given to the Soviet negotiators. I
would suspect that they will go directly on with carry-
ing out those instructions, and we wil.'l know what those
are as the negotiating sessions unfold," said Weinber-
ger.
Senate Majority Leader Robert J. Dole (R-Kan.) and
Senate Minority Leader Robert C. Byrd (D-W.Va.), in a
statement on behalf of a delegation of senators observ-
ing the Geneva talks, said, "We welcome the decision of
the Soviet government to start the arms control nego-
tiations on schedule, and we hope that this transition in
the Soviet Union will have no substantial impact on
these important negotiations as they proceed."
Former secretary of state Henry A. Kissinger, one of
dozens of experts interviewed on television, said Gor-
bachev will need two to four year's to consolidate his
power. Eventually, Kissinger said, Gorbachev's youth
will lead to a realignment of power, but that does not
necessarily mean that new policies will be more favor-
able to the United State.
"Nobody really know what the younger generation
thinks in the Soviet Union," Kissinger said. "We dop't
have any contact with them."
Former secretary of state Alexander M. Haig Jr. said
Gorbachev's assumption of power "would probably spell
some very important changes in the older hierarchy
including Gromyko and others much older than the new
leader.
"Then there will probably be a long, period of tran-
sition to adjust to the new generation," Haig said.
Jame&&.Schlesin er, a former secretary of defense
and CIA di tor. said that until Gorbachev asserts him-
self. Gromyko will be "in an even more powerful posi-
tion." -
Former secretary of state Cyrus R. Vance said hey
looks to a "period of collegial leadership that will last at'
least a year or so, after which the new leader will begin'
to assert himself."
On this point, former secretary of defense Harold
Brown said, "It will be more like three years or so for
the new leader to establish himself in a position of pre-
eminence."
Former White House national security affairs adviser
Zbigniew Brzezinski said Gorbachev was groomed
through party ranks by Andropov, who headed the se-.
curity apparatus, and by the late Mikhail Suslov, who.
had been guardian of party doctrine.
"I look for a more skillful, energetic and, in many re-
spects, a much more dangerous Soviet leader," Brze
zinski said.
There was comment within and outside the govern-
ment about how swiftly the decision on Gorbachev's
assumption of power was made and announced.
Several officials made the point that the Soviet lead-
ership has had months to prepare for the decision be-
.cause of Chernenko's declining health, and that after
two previous successions in 28 months the leadership
may have become more adept at dealing with the issue.
Staff researcher James Schwartz contributed to this
report
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/06: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504850049-0