SOVIET ABILITY TO ACCERLATE ARMS DEBATED

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000605100042-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 3, 2012
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: June 23, 1986
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/05/03 :CIA-RDP90-009658000605100042-7
A.!~~lCI.E APPEAREA. ~!
WASHINGTON POST
23 June 1986
Soviet Ab' 't
To~ Accelerate
Awns Debated.
Reagan SALT Stance
Shaped by Economics
~~' By Walter Pincus""?
~~~Waehingtm-Pose stax-writer--`5
President Reagan has adopted
the view, s no acce e e
entr me Aence gency an -
manV Vlet exoerts_ that rhP _
viet econom is so overburdened
that Moscow's current eve o e-
fense sending co not expan in
res nse to a an onment o
the SAL' treaty im~ts, accor ing
to sources insi e an ou s~ e e
government. -~
Rea an's attitude was shaped
lar el a meetin m pry wt
Henr S. Rowers, a oviet expert on
t_he faculty o t e tan or niver-
s~i Business School and a senior
research fellow at the Hoover n-
stitute of War and Peace. owen
headed a recent CIA review of the
Soviet economv w c escri
Moscow as facing a "temble eco-
nomic situation. -~
Rowers concluded accord~in~to
colleagues on the panel, that Soviet
econormc ro ems ma e i ou
t at oscow cou inance e
of ma~or wea ons w u at
been redicted b a 1985 s'~tu=
dL' In a telephone interview rom
1! ranee where he es vacahonin ,
Rowers said that he was "not saying
they could not respond wrt some
increases."
"The president believes the So-
viets are in bad shape economical-
ly," one source who met recently
with Reagan said:
Kenneth L. Adelman, director of
the Arms Control and Disarmament
Agency, who pushed for Reagan's
May 27 announced intention to ex-
ceed the limits of the unratified
SALT II treaty, captured the pres-
ident's view last week when he
wrote in The New York Times that
"the Soviets already have their as
celerator near or on the floor" and
thus could not significantly increase
their strategic weapons production.
Not everyone agrees.
Reagan and his aides are "pro-
foundly misguided," according to
Dmitri Simes, a Soviet expert with
the Carnegie Endowment for Inter-
national Peace. Soviet leader
Mikhail Gorbachev "definitely has
serious problems at home and
abroad and in the long run the [Rea-
gan] view might prove correct."
But the new Soviet leadership
has "a new element of self-confi-
dence bordering on arrogance ... ;
If we believe they are on the ropes
and they, in contrast, feel they can
keep Mother Russia not second to
anyone, that can lead to a bad time;
Simes added.
David Holloway, a specialist on
Soviet defense policy at Stanford
University, said that although the
Soviet economic problems are se-
rious, "they are not so bad that they
can't stay in the arms race ... .
The key thing is not economic but
political, the willingness of Gorba-
chev to make that kind of decision
and mobilize support."
At a recent news conference, So-
viet Embassy arms control special-
ist Vitaly Churkin bristled when
asked about the Reagan administra-
tion view that Moscow could not un-
dertake anarms buildup. "I would
like to point out that as you know,
historically, if anything, we are very
good at rising up to challenges. If
we are challenged, we will certainly
be able to respond in kind."
While there is debate among
Kremlinologists over the capabil?
ities of the Soviet military-industrial
complex, there is surprising una-
nimity that Gorbachev has been
trying to cap Moscow's defense
spending.
Under Gorbachev's leadership,
according to Steven Meyer, a So-
viet expert at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, the recent
Soviet Party Congress platform ap-
proved achange in the description
of how defense spending levels will
be determined in a way that permits
the party's political leaders to lower
them.
The new standard, Meyer said, is
to fund the military so it can pre-
vent "strategic superiority of the
forces of the imperialists," whereas
the previous. standard was a pledge
to provide the Soviet military with
whatever it believed needed "to re-
liably defend the homeland."
Under the old formulation, the .
Soviet chief of staff would have the
final word on what was needed.
Now, Meyer said, the party lead-
ership will be able to insert its
views on what the United States is
doing as part of the mix.
U.S. intelligence sources said
that the policy shift initially came to
light after reports arose of a clash
between Soviet political and mili-
tary figures in high-level confer-
ences.
Meyer and Holloway said they
believe the change gives Gorbachev
a new tool to control military fund-
ing. "The shift reflects not just eco-
nomic but also doctrinal constraints
on the military," Holloway said.
Rowers acknowledged that "Gor-
bachev is trying to hold down if not
cut defense spending, "but said the
move relates to overall Soviet eco-
nomic problems.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/05/03 :CIA-RDP90-009658000605100042-7