SANDINISTA PREDICTS REBEL ROUT SOON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000605550002-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 31, 2012
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 21, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/01 : CIA-RDP90-00965R000605550002-2
ARTICLE APP RED 21 October 1985
ON PAGE F_.._
Sandinista Predicts Rebel Rout Soon
By LARRY ROHTER
Special to The New York Times
President Daniel Ortega Saavedra of
Nicaragua said yesterday that the mili-
tary situation in his country had swung
sharply in favor of the Sandinista Army
and predicted that his forces would
decisively defeat anti-Government
rebels "in the next few months."
Mr. Ortega also said that the immi-
nence of a "strategic victory" over the
United States-supported rebels had
been behind his announcement of the
suspension of civil liberties in Nicara-
gua last week. Such steps were neces-
sary, he said, to deny the anti-Govem-
ment guerrillas a chance to regroup:
when they were "on the verge" of being
eliminated.
"When we have victory within reach
of our hands we are not i to rmit
that it denied us by a countero en-
siveb0Y e Pentagon and the C.I.A. "
Mr.Ortega said in an interview in Man-
hattan. "The state of emergency has
been eclared fundamentally to com-
bat the possibility of the contras open-
ing an internal front."
The remarks came as a striking
change of tone for Mr. Ortega, who in
the past has consistently offered grim
lassessments of the international and
domestic challenges the Nicaraguan
revolution faces and on several occa-
sions has publicly predicted that an in-
vasion of his country by the United
States was in the works.
In New York for U.N. Ceremonies
But in an hourlong review of Nicara-
gua's military, political and economic
situation yesterday, Mr. Ortega, who is
Mr. Ortega also seemed to discount
the impact, of United States help to the
rebel forces, both the $27 million in
"nonlethal" logistical aid that is al-
ready in the pipeline and any overt
military assistance that could be ap-
proved in the future. He said that the
Sandinista Army was strong enough to
win on the field of battle regardless of
what Washington does and that he
hoped such a victory would encourage
the Reagan Administration to negoti-
ate some sort of mutual security agree-
ment with his Government.
Mr. Ortega said that his declaration
of a state of emergency on Oct. 15 was
an attempt om' ogle al mech-
anisms to smash an attempt at terror-
ist activity" by w at he nortraved as a
"des rate" coalition of rebel s
thizers and erican intelligence
a encies.
Mr. Ortega said he knew that the sus-
pension of civil rights would hurt Nica-
ragua's image abroad, but argued that
his Government could not afford to act
otherwise at such a decisive moment.
"We prefer to pay a political cost at
this moment," he said, "than to pay a
higher cost, which would be the prolon-
gation of this war, including the possi-
bility that the mercenary forces could
succeed in recomposing themselves. "
in New York for ceremonies marking
the 40th anniversary of the United Na-
tions, demonstrated a confidence and
optimism that he attributed to im-
provements in the Sandinista Army's
position "compared to a few months
ago...
"We've got them beat, got them de-
feated, demoralized and disjointed,"
he said of the rebel forces. "But we
have to maintain the offensive in order
to guarantee their strategic defeat. We
can't let them come up for air."
That evaluation differs substantially
from views expressed recently by lead-
ers of the main armed rebel group, the
Nicaraguan Democratic Force. They
have pointed to operations in central
provinces, an influx of'new recruits and
substantial new arms shipments as
signs of strength and have predicted
heavy fighting during the coming dry
season.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/01 : CIA-RDP90-00965R000605550002-2