LIBYA'S QADDAFI IS HEADING FOR A FALL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000706950015-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 13, 2012
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: November 6, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/11/13: CIA-RDP90-00965R000706950015-2
ARTICLE APPEARED._
ON PAGE
WASHINGTON POST
6 November 1985
JACK ANDERSON and DALE VAN AM
Libya's Qaddafi Is Heading for a Fall
niiuammar Qaddafi, the desert fox who has
ruled Libya with increasing instability since
1969, is likely to be toppled by a military
coup within a year.
During his 16 years in power, Qaddafi has
outdone the proverbial nine-lived cat. By our count
he has survived at least 22 attempts to assassinate
or otherwise unseat him. He has been nicked by a
bullet but has never been seriously wounded.
Yet the time has never been riper for either a
spontaneous coup from the inside or one
orchestrated from the outside, according to our
sources, who include Libyans still in the country as
well as in exile. The Central Intelligence Agency, in
a recent top-secret evaluation, rates Qaddafi as
"very vulnerable."
The most serious coup attempt, last August, got
little publicity in the western media, but its
significance was not lost on Qaddafi-watchers in the
intelligence community. In one of his
all-too-frequent fits of pique, Qaddafi ordered his
generals to invade Tunisia. Instead, they mutinied.
It was only by the skin of his teeth that Qaddafi
survived this attempt. His loyal guards, including
East Germans, were able to halt the planes and
tanks that the mutinous officers had ordered to
attack Tripoli. At least 13 senior air force officers
and 30 army officers were subsequently arrested.
Without the loyalty of the military colleagues
who put him in power, Qaddafi is on a slippery
slope. Just how slippery was demonstrated by the
Sept. 1 anniversary celebration of his 1969 coup.
For the first time ever, the great parade contained
no military units, only a rabble of revolutionary
militants.
In his speech, the distrustful dictator put the best
face possible on this curious absence of military
muscle. "The Revolutionary Committee
Movement," he said, "which we parade today
instead of tanks and aircraft, which are standing in
their bases and camps, is another display of power."
Qaddafi knows he can survive as long as he has
the military behind him. But a secret CIA report
states: "That support is no longer assured."
The CIA report notes that trouble "has been
brewing within the officer corps," and adds:
?Qaddafi's policies have caused bitterness and
friction, especially among the Free Officers, a loose
organization of about 60 officers who brought
Qaddafi to power and hold key posts in the armed
forces and security apparatus."
Consequently, Qaddafi has "reduced his reliance
on the officer corps. . . gambling that the
rank-and-file of the armed forces (along with the
East German bodyguard) can protect him from
challenges." In hopes of cementing the lower
echelons' loyalty, "he has suggested to his fellow
Bedouin tribesmen, who make up the rank and file,
that they should be suspicious of their largely
city-bred officers."
Libyan experts predict that his days are
numbered.
"The time is ripe," one intelligence source said.
"His domestic base is eroding fast. There will be
greater upsurges and attacks against him." And
sooner or later, one will succeed.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/11/13: CIA-RDP90-00965R000706950015-2