COLLISION COURSE - NEW SIGNS THAT LIBYA IS PLOTTING TERRORISM BRING QUICK RESPONSE

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP90-00965R000707060058-2
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RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
K
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2
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
February 10, 2012
Sequence Number: 
58
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
August 25, 1986
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OPEN SOURCE
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/10 :CIA-RDP90-009658000707060058-2 . WALL STREET JOURNAL ARC!^!.E A~PEA~ED 25 August 1986 QH AGE ! -_ Collision Course New Signs That Libya Is Plotting Terrorism Bring Quick Response U.S. Readies Air-Raid Plan, Three-Pronged Program; Naval Maneuvers Begin Looking for a Smoking Gun /~ By JOHN WAI.COTr And Gettv.p F. Sete St6,((RCJ/0-fCTJ OJ THE WALL STREET JOU RNAL The U.S. and Libya are on a collision course again, Although the U.S. air raid on his coun- try last April drove Moammar Gadhafi into the desert for the summer, growing evidence suggests that the bombing hasn't ended Libyan?sponsored terrorism. After a ~ lull, Col. Gadhafi has beeun plottine new terrorist attacks. U.S. and West European intellieence officials say. And the Reagan administration is preparing to teach the mercurial Libyan leader another lesson. Right now, the Pentagon is completing plans for a new and larger bombing of Libya in case the president orders it. Intelli ence officials sa that althou h Col. Gadhafi as remained mostly out of sieht in the desert recently. he may reap- ar next Monda the anniversa of his 1969 revolt against Kine I rts. e o tctals say that indications of his involvement have turned up in recent terrorist plots in Cyprus and Berlin. And there are growing signs, these sources say, that Libya is ex- panding its terrorism planning beyond its embassy-like Libyan Peoples Bureaus. Lib- yan airline offices, cultural centers and trading companies in Africa. the Mideast and Europe have begun recruiting local thugs to attack American and European diplomats and business people, the sources say. `Off His Rocker' "We know the Libyans have forgotten the lesson they learned last April." a se- nior U.S. official says. Another top official puts the administration view of Col. Gad- hafi more bluntly: Mr. Gadhafi "seems to have gone off his rocker again," he says. Officials at Libya's mission to the United Nations couldn't be reached for comment. In res nse to the new evidence. the U.S. as re are a ree- ron a ro- gram o mt ttarv, covert an economic ac- tions. Senior U.S. officials say these plans are tntended to preempt more Libyan- sponsored terrorism, exacerbate growing political and economic tensions in Libya. and remind Col. Gadhafi and his inner cir- cle that promoting terrorism may be haz- ardous to their health. Joint Exercises The first prong is military. The U.S. Navy and the Egyptian air force have be? gun a series of joint exercises off Egypt. and U.S. forces are expected to exercise off Libya as well. The Navy calls the ma- neuvers routine. But administration offi? ciais say that they are intended to keep the Libyans off balance and to assemble forces in case a quick, punishing strike at Libya is needed. Such a strike, officials say, could include Libyan oil terminals and other economic targets; a Libyan official was warned recently that the U.S. will "rubble-ize" parts of the Libyan economy if Col. Gadhafi doesn't drop his terrorist plotting. U.S. officials say that this time, they may not wait for Col. Gadhaff's terrorists to strike first; conclusive evidence that the Libyans have hatched new terrorist plots could be enough to trigger a new U.S. raid. The U.S. is also contemplating possible joint action with France to drive Libyan troops out of Chad, Libya's southern neigh- bor, U.S. and diplomatic sources say. The second element of the U.S. strafe is covert action. A entra me teepee A enc assessment of the situation in Libya. completed earlier t is mont as concluded that opposition to Col. Gadhafi within Lib a is on the rise. The CIA is steppine up its support for dissi ent mi r to officers businessmen and technocrats inst a va an or t van exiles w o want to oust Col. Gadhafi. Finally, the administration plans to send a high-ranking official to Europe soon to seek European cooperation in tightening the economic and political sanctions against Libya adopted last spring by the Common Market and by the Tokyo eco- nomic summit. The envoy will tell the Eu? ropeans that the administration is studying how it could bar subsidiaries of U.S. com- panies from doing business with Libya. The previous economic sanctions haven't had much impact. :Nevertheless, the envoy will also argue that the ~~'est should take new collective actions, includ? ing closing Libya's remaining Peoples Bu- reaus; shutting down offices of Libyan Arab Airlines, the official Libyan trading company Litarco and front organizations such as commercial enterprises and Col. Gadhafi's Islamic Call and Friendship so- cieties Iwhose bank accounts the U.S. wants to freeze) ; boycotting Libyan oil; and barring the sale of all arms spare parts and "sophisticated equipment" to Libya. Such moves might make another controversial attack on Libya unnecessary, senior U.S. officials argue. So far, however, U.S. and West Euro- pean intelligence sources and others famil- iar with the situation inside Libya say that neither the pressure from the West nor Col. Gadhafi's troubles at home have stopped him from reviving terrorist schemes abroad. "Gadhafi will keep on go? ing as he started, forever, as long as he lives," says Abdel Hamid Bakoush, a for- mer Libyan prime minister now living in exile in Egypt. "He will take revenge." "There are increasing signs that he's resumed planning and preparations for ter- rorist acts," says a senior U.S. official. Once again, intelligence officials say, Col. Gadhafi's targets appear to include U.S. diplomatic and military posts, the offices of American and European firms, and spots where Americans often congregate, including offices of U.S. companies, air- ports and popular watering holes. Sniffing out Col. Gadhafi's plots has got- ten tougher since April, intelligence sources concede. He no longer conducts most of his terrorist business through his Peoples Bureaus, many of which have been whittled down by expulsions of Lib- yan diplomats caught fomenting terrorism. And he no longer sends orders to his hit squads through the channels that the U.S. National Security Agency was monitoring early this year. "He has repaired and realigned his command and control operation and found new ways of doing things," says a U.S. source. Instead of relying on his Peoples Bu? reaus, intelligence sources and knowledge- able Arabs say, Mr. Gadhafi has begun using the Libyan airline; the trading com- pany Litarco; some Libyan?owned second- class hotels in Italy and France; and West Co~itinued Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/10 :CIA-RDP90-009658000707060058-2 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/10 :CIA-RDP90-009658000707060058-2 European banks In which Libya holds in? terests to recruit, pay and arm terrorists, some of them hired Lebanese and Palestin- ians. "Their offices aren't too busy, so they have time for extracuMcular activities like recruiting people to attack American embassies and U.S. companies," a U.S. of? ficla! says. Intelligence sources sav that last week's alle ed lot b three Lebanese m n to bom a movie eater or ni fits t fre- uent .. se cemen n est er in a ars to ave nor an z t e Y es ureau n act er in and by the East Berlin office o a Lib an tradin comnanv. e p an was o y es Berlin police. Last April's raid on Libya wat triggered by a similar attack on a West Berlin discotheque directed by the East -Berlin Peoples Bureau. `No Smoking Gun' -There is also evidence that Lib a aid fo! an u . roc a an mortar attac on Britain's A trot r ase n rus y t n rise a za on, up t a . '.. n'Tfetll-ante er anves s art cT-d~o Lllntali an an? ac ed P estinian ter? rorist Abu Musa. But a U.S. official cau- tions: "We have no smoking gun and no captured terrorist who's confessed that the Libyans paid him." Equally inconclusive is evidence that the Libyans helped orchestrate a bomb plot against the U.S. embassy in the West African nation of Togo, U.S. officials say. Elsewhere in Africa however U.S. intelli? ante sources sa the ave more com- pellin evidence t at r. a a ~ is t ng to organize hit s4ua s in afire among that laces. Not a of Mr. Gadhafi's recent machi- nations have gone well. According to West- ern intelligence sources, the Libyans re- cently tried to slip a known terrorist into the French Caribbean islands of Guade- loupe and Martinique, where small local ' independence movements have received some Libyan support. But French officials recognized the man-in part, perhaps, be- cause he had lost several fingers in an ear- lier terrorist misadventure-and denied him a visa. U.S. officials readily concede that the April raid on military and terrorist targets in Tripoli and the port city of Benghazi didn't put a stop to Libyan terrorism. But they are convinced that the attack rattled the Libyan leader, bolstered his opponents within Libya and sparked several mutinies in the Libyan military. Former Libyan .Prime Minister Ba- koush says that Col. Gadhafi "is more con- fused than ever. He swallows a lot of pills. He's more frightened: He thinks everybody is against him." `Under Severe Stress' "He still is suffering from a very severe imbalance from the raid itself," maintains a knowledgeable senior Arab official. "He is someone who ishalf-paralyzed.... Men? tally, he is under severe stress, which is affecting his balance." U.S. military planners believe that Mr. Gadhafl's ability to defend himself against possible U.S. attacks is no better than it was in April. The Soviet Union, they say, hasn't significantly upgraded Libya's de? fences, although it has replaced the radar and other equipment that U.S. planes de? stroyed and it has installed a few new SA?5 antiaircraft missiles and some new elec? tronic gear that may be somewhat harder for U.S. pilots to Jam. The Soviets also appear to be no more disposed to defend Libya than they were last spring, when Russian vessels pulled out of Tripoli at the first signs of trouble, U.S. analysts say. After the U.S. raid, these officials say, Mr. Gadhafi's second?in?command, Maj. Abde! Salem Jalloud, who is close to the Soviets, visited Moscow and was told that the Kremlin takes a dim view of his boss's terrorist adventures. And, says a top U.S. official, "Jalloud was left wfN no misun- derstanding about the amount of help Libya would get from Moscow if there was more trouble." Perhaps the Libyan military's most crippling problem, U.S. analysts say, is its internal divisions, which have worsened since the April bombing. Although reliable intelligence is hard to come by, U.S. offf? cials say several army units apparently mutinied and the air force had to send hired Syrian pilots to crush the rebellions. U.S. officials and Libyan exile leaders be? lieve a number of high-ranking air force and naval officers were executed, fired or reassigned in late April and May. Despite Mr. Gadhafi's problems, U.S. officials believe that he is still capable of stirring up trouble. The administration has warned the Libyan leader through Libya's U.N. ambassador and other channels that if he doesn't stop plotting terrorist attacks, the U.S. is prepared to punish him again. "We need to demonstrate that this type of behavior will always be properly re- warded," atop U.S. official says. "If Col. Gadhafi continues hts current planning, things are not going to go well for him." Other Aircraft The U.S. hopes that the current military maneuvers will help send Mr. Gadhafi that message. A second American aircraft car? rier, the USS John F. Kennedy, is en route to the Mediterranean with its battle group to Join the USS Forrestal, which is already stationed there. A third carrier, the USS America, could be kept on hand after the Kennedy arrives on Thursday. And sources say that the U.S. has begun feeling out France and its North Atlantic Treaty Or? ganization allies about possible joint action against Libya. "We are positioning the requisite assets to be able to preempt more terrorist activf? ties by the Libyans," says a high-ranking U.S. official. One possible target for Joint U.S.- French action is Chad, where Col. Gadhatf has annexed a strip of land along his bor? der and where U.S. offlclais say 5,000 to T,000 Libyan troops are trying to help rebels overthrow the French?backed gov- ernment of President Hisseln Habra. The deputy commander 1n chief of the U.S. Eu? ropean Command, Gen. Richard Lawson, quietly visited the poverty-stricken desert nation earlier this month to see whether President Habra, with U.S. and French help, might be able to expel the Libyans. Stoking at the Libyans in Chad could pay dividends: It could increase dissension in the Libyan military and force the Ltb? vans to cut down their meddling next door ~ in the Sudan. U.S. and Egyptian officials are worried that Libyans who claim to be provtding humanitarian aid in the western Sudan are actually out to topple the Suda- nese government. "If you look at what's going on, the mil? Mary exercises, our consultations with our allies and so forth, you should not think it's all coincidental or the timing is acciden- ' tai," says an administration official. Adds a top U.S. official about Mr. Gad? haft, "Just because he's paranoid doesn't mean he doesn't have enemies." Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/10 :CIA-RDP90-009658000707060058-2