COLLISION COURSE - NEW SIGNS THAT LIBYA IS PLOTTING TERRORISM BRING QUICK RESPONSE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000707060058-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 58
• Publication Date: August 25, 1986
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/10 :CIA-RDP90-009658000707060058-2 .
WALL STREET JOURNAL
ARC!^!.E A~PEA~ED 25 August 1986
QH AGE ! -_
Collision Course
New Signs That Libya
Is Plotting Terrorism
Bring Quick Response
U.S. Readies Air-Raid Plan,
Three-Pronged Program;
Naval Maneuvers Begin
Looking for a Smoking Gun
/~
By JOHN WAI.COTr
And Gettv.p F. Sete
St6,((RCJ/0-fCTJ OJ THE WALL STREET JOU RNAL
The U.S. and Libya are on a collision
course again,
Although the U.S. air raid on his coun-
try last April drove Moammar Gadhafi
into the desert for the summer, growing
evidence suggests that the bombing hasn't
ended Libyan?sponsored terrorism. After a
~ lull, Col. Gadhafi has beeun plottine new
terrorist attacks. U.S. and West European
intellieence officials say. And the Reagan
administration is preparing to teach the
mercurial Libyan leader another lesson.
Right now, the Pentagon is completing
plans for a new and larger bombing of
Libya in case the president orders it.
Intelli ence officials sa that althou h
Col. Gadhafi as remained mostly out of
sieht in the desert recently. he may reap-
ar next Monda the anniversa of his
1969 revolt against Kine I rts. e o tctals
say that indications of his involvement
have turned up in recent terrorist plots in
Cyprus and Berlin. And there are growing
signs, these sources say, that Libya is ex-
panding its terrorism planning beyond its
embassy-like Libyan Peoples Bureaus. Lib-
yan airline offices, cultural centers and
trading companies in Africa. the Mideast
and Europe have begun recruiting local
thugs to attack American and European
diplomats and business people, the sources
say.
`Off His Rocker'
"We know the Libyans have forgotten
the lesson they learned last April." a se-
nior U.S. official says. Another top official
puts the administration view of Col. Gad-
hafi more bluntly: Mr. Gadhafi "seems to
have gone off his rocker again," he
says.
Officials at Libya's mission to the
United Nations couldn't be reached for
comment.
In res nse to the new evidence. the
U.S. as re are a ree- ron a ro-
gram o mt ttarv, covert an economic ac-
tions. Senior U.S. officials say these plans
are tntended to preempt more Libyan-
sponsored terrorism, exacerbate growing
political and economic tensions in Libya.
and remind Col. Gadhafi and his inner cir-
cle that promoting terrorism may be haz-
ardous to their health.
Joint Exercises
The first prong is military. The U.S.
Navy and the Egyptian air force have be?
gun a series of joint exercises off Egypt.
and U.S. forces are expected to exercise
off Libya as well. The Navy calls the ma-
neuvers routine. But administration offi?
ciais say that they are intended to keep the
Libyans off balance and to assemble forces
in case a quick, punishing strike at Libya
is needed. Such a strike, officials say,
could include Libyan oil terminals and
other economic targets; a Libyan official
was warned recently that the U.S. will
"rubble-ize" parts of the Libyan economy
if Col. Gadhafi doesn't drop his terrorist
plotting.
U.S. officials say that this time, they
may not wait for Col. Gadhaff's terrorists
to strike first; conclusive evidence that the
Libyans have hatched new terrorist plots
could be enough to trigger a new U.S. raid.
The U.S. is also contemplating possible
joint action with France to drive Libyan
troops out of Chad, Libya's southern neigh-
bor, U.S. and diplomatic sources say.
The second element of the U.S. strafe
is covert action. A entra me teepee
A enc assessment of the situation in
Libya. completed earlier t is mont as
concluded that opposition to Col. Gadhafi
within Lib a is on the rise. The CIA is
steppine up its support for dissi ent mi r
to officers businessmen and technocrats
inst a va an or t van exiles w o
want to oust Col. Gadhafi.
Finally, the administration plans to
send a high-ranking official to Europe soon
to seek European cooperation in tightening
the economic and political sanctions
against Libya adopted last spring by the
Common Market and by the Tokyo eco-
nomic summit. The envoy will tell the Eu?
ropeans that the administration is studying
how it could bar subsidiaries of U.S. com-
panies from doing business with Libya.
The previous economic sanctions
haven't had much impact. :Nevertheless,
the envoy will also argue that the ~~'est
should take new collective actions, includ?
ing closing Libya's remaining Peoples Bu-
reaus; shutting down offices of Libyan
Arab Airlines, the official Libyan trading
company Litarco and front organizations
such as commercial enterprises and Col.
Gadhafi's Islamic Call and Friendship so-
cieties Iwhose bank accounts the U.S.
wants to freeze) ; boycotting Libyan oil;
and barring the sale of all arms spare
parts and "sophisticated equipment" to
Libya. Such moves might make another
controversial attack on Libya unnecessary,
senior U.S. officials argue.
So far, however, U.S. and West Euro-
pean intelligence sources and others famil-
iar with the situation inside Libya say that
neither the pressure from the West nor
Col. Gadhafi's troubles at home have
stopped him from reviving terrorist
schemes abroad. "Gadhafi will keep on go?
ing as he started, forever, as long as he
lives," says Abdel Hamid Bakoush, a for-
mer Libyan prime minister now living in
exile in Egypt. "He will take revenge."
"There are increasing signs that he's
resumed planning and preparations for ter-
rorist acts," says a senior U.S. official.
Once again, intelligence officials say, Col.
Gadhafi's targets appear to include U.S.
diplomatic and military posts, the offices
of American and European firms, and
spots where Americans often congregate,
including offices of U.S. companies, air-
ports and popular watering holes.
Sniffing out Col. Gadhafi's plots has got-
ten tougher since April, intelligence
sources concede. He no longer conducts
most of his terrorist business through his
Peoples Bureaus, many of which have
been whittled down by expulsions of Lib-
yan diplomats caught fomenting terrorism.
And he no longer sends orders to his hit
squads through the channels that the U.S.
National Security Agency was monitoring
early this year.
"He has repaired and realigned his
command and control operation and found
new ways of doing things," says a U.S.
source.
Instead of relying on his Peoples Bu?
reaus, intelligence sources and knowledge-
able Arabs say, Mr. Gadhafi has begun
using the Libyan airline; the trading com-
pany Litarco; some Libyan?owned second-
class hotels in Italy and France; and West
Co~itinued
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/10 :CIA-RDP90-009658000707060058-2
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/10 :CIA-RDP90-009658000707060058-2
European banks In which Libya holds in?
terests to recruit, pay and arm terrorists,
some of them hired Lebanese and Palestin-
ians.
"Their offices aren't too busy, so they
have time for extracuMcular activities
like recruiting people to attack American
embassies and U.S. companies," a U.S. of?
ficla! says.
Intelligence sources sav that last week's
alle ed lot b three Lebanese m n to
bom
a movie eater or ni fits
t fre-
uent
.. se
cemen n
est
er in
a ars to ave
nor an z
t e
Y
es ureau n act
er in and by
the East Berlin office o a Lib an tradin
comnanv. e p an was o y es
Berlin police. Last April's raid on Libya
wat triggered by a similar attack on a
West Berlin discotheque directed by the
East -Berlin Peoples Bureau.
`No Smoking Gun'
-There is also evidence that Lib a aid
fo! an u . roc a an mortar attac on
Britain's A trot r ase n rus y
t n rise a za on, up
t a . '.. n'Tfetll-ante er anves s art cT-d~o
Lllntali an an? ac ed P estinian ter?
rorist Abu Musa. But a U.S. official cau-
tions: "We have no smoking gun and no
captured terrorist who's confessed that the
Libyans paid him."
Equally inconclusive is evidence that
the Libyans helped orchestrate a bomb
plot against the U.S. embassy in the West
African nation of Togo, U.S. officials say.
Elsewhere in Africa however U.S. intelli?
ante sources sa the ave more com-
pellin evidence t at r. a a ~ is t ng
to organize hit s4ua s in afire among
that laces.
Not a of Mr. Gadhafi's recent machi-
nations have gone well. According to West-
ern intelligence sources, the Libyans re-
cently tried to slip a known terrorist into
the French Caribbean islands of Guade-
loupe and Martinique, where small local
' independence movements have received
some Libyan support. But French officials
recognized the man-in part, perhaps, be-
cause he had lost several fingers in an ear-
lier terrorist misadventure-and denied
him a visa.
U.S. officials readily concede that the
April raid on military and terrorist targets
in Tripoli and the port city of Benghazi
didn't put a stop to Libyan terrorism. But
they are convinced that the attack rattled
the Libyan leader, bolstered his opponents
within Libya and sparked several mutinies
in the Libyan military.
Former Libyan .Prime Minister Ba-
koush says that Col. Gadhafi "is more con-
fused than ever. He swallows a lot of pills.
He's more frightened: He thinks everybody
is against him."
`Under Severe Stress'
"He still is suffering from a very severe
imbalance from the raid itself," maintains
a knowledgeable senior Arab official. "He
is someone who ishalf-paralyzed.... Men?
tally, he is under severe stress, which is
affecting his balance."
U.S. military planners believe that Mr.
Gadhafl's ability to defend himself against
possible U.S. attacks is no better than it
was in April. The Soviet Union, they say,
hasn't significantly upgraded Libya's de?
fences, although it has replaced the radar
and other equipment that U.S. planes de?
stroyed and it has installed a few new SA?5
antiaircraft missiles and some new elec?
tronic gear that may be somewhat harder
for U.S. pilots to Jam.
The Soviets also appear to be no more
disposed to defend Libya than they were
last spring, when Russian vessels pulled
out of Tripoli at the first signs of trouble,
U.S. analysts say.
After the U.S. raid, these officials say,
Mr. Gadhafi's second?in?command, Maj.
Abde! Salem Jalloud, who is close to the
Soviets, visited Moscow and was told that
the Kremlin takes a dim view of his boss's
terrorist adventures. And, says a top U.S.
official, "Jalloud was left wfN no misun-
derstanding about the amount of help
Libya would get from Moscow if there was
more trouble."
Perhaps the Libyan military's most
crippling problem, U.S. analysts say, is its
internal divisions, which have worsened
since the April bombing. Although reliable
intelligence is hard to come by, U.S. offf?
cials say several army units apparently
mutinied and the air force had to send
hired Syrian pilots to crush the rebellions.
U.S. officials and Libyan exile leaders be?
lieve a number of high-ranking air force
and naval officers were executed, fired or
reassigned in late April and May.
Despite Mr. Gadhafi's problems, U.S.
officials believe that he is still capable of
stirring up trouble. The administration has
warned the Libyan leader through Libya's
U.N. ambassador and other channels that
if he doesn't stop plotting terrorist attacks,
the U.S. is prepared to punish him again.
"We need to demonstrate that this type of
behavior will always be properly re-
warded," atop U.S. official says. "If Col.
Gadhafi continues hts current planning,
things are not going to go well for him."
Other Aircraft
The U.S. hopes that the current military
maneuvers will help send Mr. Gadhafi that
message. A second American aircraft car?
rier, the USS John F. Kennedy, is en route
to the Mediterranean with its battle group
to Join the USS Forrestal, which is already
stationed there. A third carrier, the USS
America, could be kept on hand after the
Kennedy arrives on Thursday. And sources
say that the U.S. has begun feeling out
France and its North Atlantic Treaty Or?
ganization allies about possible joint action
against Libya.
"We are positioning the requisite assets
to be able to preempt more terrorist activf?
ties by the Libyans," says a high-ranking
U.S. official.
One possible target for Joint U.S.-
French action is Chad, where Col. Gadhatf
has annexed a strip of land along his bor?
der and where U.S. offlclais say 5,000 to
T,000 Libyan troops are trying to help
rebels overthrow the French?backed gov-
ernment of President Hisseln Habra. The
deputy commander 1n chief of the U.S. Eu?
ropean Command, Gen. Richard Lawson,
quietly visited the poverty-stricken desert
nation earlier this month to see whether
President Habra, with U.S. and French
help, might be able to expel the Libyans.
Stoking at the Libyans in Chad could
pay dividends: It could increase dissension
in the Libyan military and force the Ltb?
vans to cut down their meddling next door ~
in the Sudan. U.S. and Egyptian officials
are worried that Libyans who claim to be
provtding humanitarian aid in the western
Sudan are actually out to topple the Suda-
nese government.
"If you look at what's going on, the mil?
Mary exercises, our consultations with our
allies and so forth, you should not think it's
all coincidental or the timing is acciden- '
tai," says an administration official.
Adds a top U.S. official about Mr. Gad?
haft, "Just because he's paranoid doesn't
mean he doesn't have enemies."
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/10 :CIA-RDP90-009658000707060058-2