KAL CONSPIRACY THEORISTS DISTORT FACTS, EXPERTS SAY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000807490042-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 18, 2012
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: October 14, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

ST Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/18: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807490042-1
I I
ARTlCt APPEARED LOS ANGELES TIMES
ON PAGE-J-. ~FP I) October 14 1985
affair, are the leading American
KAL Conspiracy Theorists who also " `g the KAL
skeptics Last month, they con-
chided in The Nation that the
it
r r "could not unknowingglyave flown its
Distort Facts, Experts Say tally o o ~l
s
course" over the Soviet
BY MICHAEL, WINES and SAM JAMESON, Times Staff Writers and that the Reagan Admin-
WASHINGTON-Two years af- t subcommittee this fall began istration probably "has covered up ter a Soviet fighter downed a effecting data on the disaster after vital evidence about the downing."
Korean Air Lines jumbo jet in aebusatory articles in The Nation Normal Reports
Soviet airspace and plunged 269 ' nt*gazine and reports by New York
people to their deaths in the Sea of '1'nes columnist Tom Wicker ex- Korean A~ Lines Flight 00? left Anchorage Japan, a handful of skeptics claim ?prpssing skepticism about official' Alaska
(local ,
flight to Seoul at
to have unearthed tantalizing new 'act ounts. ?
and was shot dow3 n b. one or two
evidence that the airliner's fatal In Japan, backbench legislators
course, far from accidental mean- 'and grieving families of crash vic- Soviet air-to-air missiles 5 hours,
had a far more sinister tims still hop to 36 minutes later as it left Soviet
purpose8~-spying. ment secrets s they pry loose believe govern- will airspace over Sakhalin Island.
Their startling assertions, out- prove that the South Korean jet Between the jet's takeoff and its
lined in articles and letters, include was spying for the United States. In 11-minute spiral into the Sea of
Japanese radar data suggesting I{ rea, where the, topic remains Japan, the 747's three-man cockpit
that the jet misled Tokyo air con- ficially taboo, many citizens crew reported a normal flight to
trollers about its altitude and eve a "general belief" that the ground controllers, radioing their
course, as well as maps portraying ed jet deliberately flew over position as they passed computer-
KAL Flight 007 as veering over Soviet Union to save fuel. set "way points" along tom' North
Soviet East Asian military receiving
bases. But nothing has emerged to Permis-
There is even s recording of an Ike the conclusion of major avia- son to ascend from 33,000 to 35,000
American controller supposedly n bodies, including the U.S. Air feet only minutes before being shot
saying, "We should warn them," ne Pilots Assn. and the Interna- down.
seconds after the doomed jet left tional Civil Aviation Organization, Despite the routine reports, the
U.S. airspace near Alaska tlt the KAL disaster probably jet actually had strayed from its
It is damning stuff indeed. exceot stemmed from pilot error, mechan- assigned path only 10 minutes after
for one problem: On closer scruti- foal failure or both. The explanation takeoff and was more than 300
ny, U.S. officials and other experts Wbolstered by sobering data that miles off course by the time it was
say, none of it appears to be true. s&w that pilots in general stray shot down-so far that it some-
The revelations that are not false m their assigned flight paths times was out of radio range and
on their face are distortions of re often than has been assumed. had to relay its position reports to
innocuous facts, they argue. till, no one has yet offered an the ground via a second KAL jet
"It's a great story," said Thomas clad explanation of how an flying nearby.
R. Maertens, a former State De- or could have carried. the Kore- All experts agree that an alert
partment intelligence analyst now ~ jet on the exact course that it crew should have discovered such
with the department's Soviet af. k over the Soviet Union's mill- a Gargantuan misstep, either
fairs office. "But it doesn't hold r sensitive Kamchatka Penin- through ordinary double-checking
together." sula and Sakhalin Island. The only of data in flight or by sighting
"Once you get into the technical- sources of the most definitive an- unexpected land masses on the jet's
ities of it, the conspiracy theories swers to that question-the "black weather radar. The International
fade away," agrees Murray Sayle, a boxes" that recorded KAL OOTs Civil Aviation Organization con-
Tokyo-based journalist and former flight path and cabin conversa- cluded in its analysis of the disaster
Newsweek magazine reporter who tions-lie under water in the Sea of that the sort of inattention required
has studied the KAL disaster al- Japan. to fly in the wrong direction for
most since it occurred Sept. 1, 1983. The refusal of U.S., Japanese and more than five hours is rare, "but
"Where's their evidence?" he said. Korean officials to release more of not to a degree unknown in civil
Yet, troubles with the facts have their own files on the downing- aviation."
not prevented r y buffs and,dedi- and their occasional denials that One Senate staff expert, who was
cated researchers alike from ele- more exist-only deepen the suapi- briefed by the CIA in September,
vating the KAL 007 disaster to a dons of conspiracy advocates 1984, after the first round of accu-
*Mpllar level-a level once reserved "The government apparently, sations surfaced that Flight 007
f the likes of the assassination of has a very, very strong interest; in' was on a spying mission, said he has
.-resident John F. Kennedy, the keeping this case dosed," said. "zero reason to believe that the
;Rosenberg spy trial of the early David Pearson, a Yale University Korean Air Lines tragedy was the
'1950s and the Lindbergh kidnap- svclology student who has written result of anything but a terrible
mg, t" often-quoted articles on the pilot error."
Although congressional intelli- shooting for The Nation magazine
;gence experts have derisively re- and who now plans a book
jected any hint of a secret U.S. link Pearson and John Koppel, a
tp.the tragedy, a House transports- retired U.S. Foreign Service offim Continued
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/18: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807490042-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/18: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807490042-1
>IL
Deliberate Intent Charged
Not everyone is so easily con-
vinced. Pearson and Keppel, rely-
ing mostly on new Japan Defense
Agency data and disclosures in
lawsuits, now charge that Flight
007 deliberately flew into Soviet
airspace, lied about its course to
Japanese civil aviation officials and
tried to elude Soviet fighters that
chased it across Sakhalin Island.
"The official U.S. government
and ICAO explanations of the trag-
edy-that KAL 007 innocently
flew over Soviet territory as a
result of some navigational er-
ror-are not credible," they wrote
in the September- article in The
Nation.
The accusations have roused the
most intense American interest in
the KAL downing since 1983.
But as Sayle, Maertens and other
debunkers note, the case for the
most dramatic charges is some-
thing less than airtight:
-Pearson and Keppel contend
that Japanese radar data and early,
ignored reconstructions of the air-
liner's flight path prove that the
KAL jet did not fly a straight line
over Sakhalin-as it would have
were the plane guided by automatic
pilot-but instead flew ."a broad
are, a turn of about 20 degrees in
total, which the plane's crew could
not have flown unknowingly."
Actually, Maertens said, the ear-
ly, curving flight map cited in these
investigations is, in fact, a straight
line drawn on a satellite photo-
graph of the round Earth, making
the path itself appear to arc.
Soviet pilots chasing the KAL jet
across Sakhalin radioed ground
controllers at 3:09 a.m., 17 minutes
before the plane was shot down.
that the jet "has turned.... The
target Is 80 (degrees) to my left."
But the Soviet pilot apparently
erred; it was he who had executed a
20-degree turn less than a minute
before he noted the change in the
KAL plane's position, his radio
transmissions indicated.
Constant Heading
All other references to the KAL
jet's position, both before the Soviet
pilot's turn and after he resumed
his previous course, indicate that it
was on a constant heading. Of the
official reports on the incident, only
the Soviet Union claims to have
radar tracings that have the KAL
jet wandering in looping curves
across Sakhalin.
-Japanese radar data show that
Flight 007 dived to 29,000 feet
"almost precisely (at) the mo-
ment" it entered Sakhalin airspace,
Pearson and Keppel wrote last
month, although the jet told Tokyo
air-traffic officials it was flying at
33,000 feet. When a Soviet jet fired
cannon rounds at the airliner some
nine minutes later, the data show,
the plane rose again to 32,000 feet,
even though the crew told Tokyo in
a "calm-voiced" report at that
moment that the jet was proceed-
ing to 35,000 feet.
Pearson and Keppel may be
reading more into the radar data
than is there. The U.S. Naval
Research Laboratory's Radar
Handbook, the standard reference
for radar accuracy, says that ra-
dar-based altitude estimates can
err by a range of 4,000 to more than
14,700 feet when measured from
radar stations 160 to-270 nautical
miles away, the distance at which
the Japanese radar stations
picked up the KAL jet.
None of the recorded radio con -
versations by the Korean pilots or
their Soviet pursuers hint that the
jet dived to escape detection.
Also, even if the Japan Defense
Agency data were accurate, it
would not show that the jumbo jet
dived or rose at "precisely" any
moment, as the two investigators
contend. The radar readings are
like snapshots taken minutes apart
and do not record when a plane
changes position.
-In addition, Keppel and Pear-
son argue, "in the final moments
before the fatal missile was fired,
the (Japanese military) data sug-
g%-t, the pilot of KAL 007 once
again increased speed." To the two
researchers, the burst of speed,
coupled with the height variation,
indicate not only deception but
"evasive action" in the face of
Soviet pursuit.
But Maertens says that the air-
liner's final, suspicious burst of
evasive speed was an increase of
roughly 20 knots, or 23 m.p.h., to
about 540 m.p.h.-well below the
sound barrier. By contrast, the
Soviet SU-15 jet pursuing the 747
was capable of flying 2.3 times the
speed of sound and was forced at
one point during its pursuit to slow
down because it had overrun the
KAL plane.
-Tapes of conversations at the
Anchorage Air Route Traffic Con-
trol Center, Keppel argues, show
"beyond question" that someone
said the words "warn him" or
"warn them" as KAL 007 reached
its first computer checkpoint off
the Alaskan coast-out of civilian
radar range but within range of
offshore military radar. Keppel
wonders whether the unheeded
plea suggests that the plane's crew
Continued
DON CLMIMT / Los Angela, Tlmee
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/18: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807490042-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/18: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807490042-1
was knowingly sent to its fate by
American officials.
The U.S. government acknowl-
edges no such warning. In court
documents filed last month, FBI
acoustics expert Bruce Koenig says
the Anchorage recording was fil-
tered on the bureau's most sophis-
ticated audio devices and does not
oontain the- intelligible words
"warn him" or "warn them."
-San Francisco attorney Melvin
Belli says that widows of Flight
007''s captain and co-pilot told him
and others in a Seoul hotel early
this year that their husbands were
paid to fly over Soviet territory.
"The two widows said (their hus-
bands) brought the money home in
cash," Belli recounted in an inter-
view.
Attorney Charles Herrmann,
who with Belli has represented 83
Koreans including survivors of the
29 KAL crew members aboard the
doomed plane, also attended the
meeting and said his memory of it is
similar to Belli's. "But I personally
do not believe that the substance of
what the widows told us is the
explanation for the incursion into
Soviet territory." Nor, he said, does
he believe that the plane was on a
spying mission.
A third witness to at least some
of Belli's and Herrmann's meet-
ings, Korean legislator and human
rights activist Park Han Sang, said
he recalls no instances in which the
crew members' survivors talked
about deliberate flights over the
Soviet Union, although he added
that he was often busy during
interviews and could have missed
key conversations.
Extensive efforts by The Times
to contact surviving family mem-
bers of the KAL crew in South
Korea were unsuccessful.
The critics of the conspiracy
theorists have their own pet theo-
ries of why Flight 007 accidentally
strayed into Soviet airspace.
International Civil Aviation Or-
ganization researchers last year
identified two plausible pilot mis-
takes that could have led the plane
to its fatal end.
One scenario speculates that the
crew misprogrammed one of its
three computer navigation ?ys-
terns, putting it off by 10 de=
green-a mistake that would re-
but one wrong keystroke., of
tl undreds s needed to set a
computer course.
A second possibility is that the
crew mistakenly left the plane on a
straight magnetic heading of 246
degrees-the course needed to
reach the first checkpoint in Beth-
el, Alaska-instead of switching to
the computer inertial navigation
system after takeoff.
Sayle, who prefers the 246-de-
gree theory, notes that the naviga-
tion beacon at Anchorage airport
by which pilots set their initial
eourses was not working the morn -
' ~9ng of the KAL flight, meaning that
the plane flew "direct Bethel" on a
magnetic heading rather than nav-
igating by its computer inertial
guidance system.
Also, service records at Anchor-
age indicate, a key system that
would have warned the KAL pilots
that they were flying on a magnetic
heading, and not according to the
computer course, was at least part-
ly malfunctioning that morning.
"It's not that unusual an occur-
rence to have a wandered start for
some reason, either equipment fail-
ure or a human mistake," said John
O'Brien, the top safety official at
the Air Line Pilots Assn. in Wash-
ington.
South Pacific Incident
Last fall, a South Pacific Island
Airways jetliner from Anchorage
to Amsterdam strayed several
hundred miles off course and was
stopped from entering Soviet air-
space only when Norwegian F- 16s
were scrambled to intercept it. In
1978, another KAL jet accidentally
flew over the western Soviet Union
and was peppered with cannon fire,
killing two people.
But no such evidence is likely to
convince those who continue to ask
why Flight 007's pilots failed to
double-check their course, turn on
their radar or perform any of a long
list of routine checks that might
have warned them of a problem.
"Along with the tragedy of the
thing, its a terrific detective story,"
said Alexander Dallin, a Stanford
University expert in Soviet affairs.
"That's the charm of the' thing.
There are always a few pieces of
the jigsaw puzzle that don't fit."
Mioheei Wines reported frog.
Washington and Sam Jamesoga
from Japan and South Korea.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/18: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807490042-1