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Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 State Dept. review completed Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 State-Dept. review completed Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R Y(_)i.K jj7-tr7S 1.6 ITOVEflIBEI-i 197 Lr-70n:aross Se eks t 1,6 e nrP Data .!? ? d 'C ? would receive the !By NiCHOLAS M. HORROCN ? $.7eCtal ;c1T1.!e. New -n.6: nn,43. WASHINGTON. Nov. 15?The !Senate Select Committee on fritellieence is preparing- legis- lation that would for the first !time.. formally entitle Congress' to share- national security intel- iligence . with the ? exec-nal:re ?! hrenc'n.- committee. sources saia today_ ? .re. 'Interviews with key Ford Ad- '-ministration and - intelligence canciats disclosed that the A ongress 'ministration would not opposektery information Mr. Pi't:e is this facet of legislative over-wrestling to get in a timely eight. Moreover, congressional' fashion as the events unfold- and Administration sources! ed, said one ietelligence Senior Administration cials have said that President Ford does not intend to let Congress intrude upon ti' Presidential prerogative to con- duct foreign affairs end `:.;at: direction of covert cneraticinsi is cleerly a function of the. executive branch. ! Congress already receives highly secret intelligence infor- said they. believed such a sys-e source. He was ref-Jr-mg to ? mation on an informal basis, tem would avoid much of thel the confrontation that has de- : Certain members of the. Senatei "suspicion," as one source putiveloped between Secretary of and House Armed Seire-ices ..reiceive a. ._ ,daily i:.1:e ,1r it that had eesulted?in disputesiState Henry A. Kissinger and Committees over secret executive branch! tr t ee House Seien: Committee c:leilcraiccle!;'-el:Iliseant'ece policy. in..?Chile-and? Southeast on Intelligence, headed by Rep- Tlie. appropriation committees' Asian ' ? ' r - . -. ? '-- ? ... ? resentative Otis G. Pike, Demo- . have also been given_ highly' "When this. -becomes law, 'crat of Suftoile. - I . secret data over the years. ? How System Would Work ABM Controversy Recalled I - Under the proposal being "In a speech before the Senate,/ prepared by a drafting group ?las( week, Senator Frank,' of the Senate ..committee, Church; the Idaho ? Democrat" Congressioaanaleaversight come who beads the Select Commit- mittee , would. be 'empowered :,tee on Intelligence, cited what to oraer the 'intelligence agent he saw as the importance of ties to reoort .on :their know- Congress's receiving Intel- :ledge of any subject of national ligence data during the con- security. ' ?troversy of several years ago "For instance, if a crisis were over the antiballistic-missile de. rdieveloping in a certain foreign:- tense system, country," one committee source "The Congressional coalition said, "the oversight committee against the ABM had to have could require the intelligence reliable information to counter- t act the reams _of data turned. agencies.' - them an ? ou o give ' by the =leerysaid. ne up-td--date- estimate of what is -Thtis in'orrnation only aye lahle at one source: the Ceetral Intelligence Agency.'Through a'. series of C.I.A. briefings,' members of Congress were eh the whole range of informa- tion:tort the strenerths_and weak- nesses of the ? ABM system." .? Mr, Church conterid'Ed: that C.I.A.- briefings had. enabled: Congress ?-to strike a ? 'oaianceL- between this information and information it : wasn.receiving, data is eing patterned upon - from the military and to defeat provision; of the Atomic Ener- the antiballistle.-missle defense gy Act, whici requires the Trier- on the ground that it did not gy Research and Development provide the protectiOn _ to the Administration and .the intel- United: States . that" military ligence agencies to report to leaders asserted it would. . ? Coeress secret clata in the There le 'euhtle, butericai. ten.tiriTf nuclear energy. difference hetweerrtne informal 'Airtight Language' briefing of the past ? and the legislattve proposal- that the "The language of that section! select. committee Ise e.xpected., is airtight," one Senate aide to intreduce. said, "aced we are preparing, When Congress cart cenpeli language that wilt do the same inferrnation, thE, framers be. thing." -lieve., it will bar the political Senate soLItt-.,Ts said that Ford administration in office from Administration officials were "filtering the facts we get," as ceoperating in working out the: one source put it. details- of the intelligence data They believe that this will legislation. What Senate ;our- preVent political acirninistra- ces acknowledge will 'be a lot tions from being able to shape tougher is whether Congressl the 'facts brought to Congress can legislate a veto over covert on a foreign policy issue. intelligence. operations- Under Other activities inciede stud - present law the executive ies of pending public issues and branch is required to report .surveys of public opinion or. such evert operations to .Con- matters of interest to business. -gress only a. ter _ne tact. Approved For Release 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 going on." Since this would be the same information from which tine President forms foreign policy moves, Congress would be ill afar better position to under- stand and evaluate the Pres- ident's actions. The legislative language for the delovery of intelligence ART/M.13 A.PFS,.. Approved! Mtraelee?e 20(p06A9UWIV*-01137R000 e ruary BY MATTHEW ROTHSCHILD n Washington's Massachusetts Avenue, sandwiched between the flag-waving embassies of Chile and Canada, stands the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced In- ternational Studies. Its sandy, concrete walls and stiff, rectangular windows mir- ror.the bland facade of the Brookings In- stitution across the street_ I visited the School of Advanced In- ternational Studies?which everyone there calls SAIS (rhymes with nice)?one cold and rainy morning last December. A re- cruiter from the Central Intelligence Agency was scheduled to interview a dozen SA.IS students .that day, and I. too, was eager to talk with them. I wanted to find out what these students were like, why they would want to work for the CIA, and how they could justify their interest in such a career. This was no idle concern, for the CIA is enjoying a remarkable renaissance on American college campuses. Gone is the rriilita.nt protest, One is the stigma. "The view of the Agency is very good. We're doing very well," says a CIA officer knowl- edgeable about the recruitment effort. The officer, who asked that his name not be used, says the Agency now recruits openly on 300 campuses. Pay for a graduating senior typically starts between S17.000 and S27,000. "Students seem to be much more re- sponsive" than they were even five years ago, and "more are applying. certainly," the CIA man says. He attributes this pos- itive reception, in pan, to an increased level of patriotism. "I've gotten an awful lot of that," he says. adding that anti-CIA dem- onstrations on campus have "dramatically declined." The resurgence of the CIA on campus is the most obvious indication of the at- titudes characterizing today's students. Conservatism once again prevails in the society at large, and the resilience of Amer- ica's -imperial culture finds expression in the application forms addressed to Wil- liam Casey as much as in the jingoist huz- zahs over the invasion of Grenada. Outside the SATS recruiting office, I camped on a three-cushioned couch that served as the on-deck circle for the appli- cants. My first interviewee, Michael Peck, a student in "conflict management," was reluctant to tell me what had drawn him to the CIA, but he did offer some general insights. "I know everyone here who is in- terviewing," he said. "It's not the James Bond. John Wayne approach, but a very pragmatic one, with a little idealism." Peck was enthusiastic about the re- sources the Agency offers to the specialist in foreign affairs. "The possibility to broaden your area of expertise is what brings people to this job." he said. "The CIA guarantees you a total preoccupation with your interest, and it provides you with first-hand experience." To this profes- sional inducement, Peck added a dash of patriotism. "Take Nathan Hale," he said. ."The guy had a certain commitment to make, and he made it." Drawing a sharp distinction between the analysis side of the CIA, where research is Conducted. and the operations side, where the traditional cloak-and-dagger spy work is performed. Peck said he was interested only in analysis. He had some problems with covert action. "If there's any other way but violence. I'm for it," he said. "De- fense of .1.rOgAlindsi Approved For Relftami 4! ?Wert n !r1 3 country, though, I haven't made up my Our conversation was cut short by the CIA recruiter, a middle-aged woman with close-cropped brown hair, wearing a ma- roon sweater, matching shin-length skirt, and unpolished blue low-heel shoes two decades out of fashion. She opened the door to the interviewing-office, dismissed one student, and invited Peck in with the fetching phrase, "Next victim? I followed the previous victim down a - couple of flights of stairs to a basement locker room. As he took off his gray sport jacket and tie, he explained why he had signed up to interview with the CIA: "It's one of the few 'careers directly related to : the education here.- He was an interna- tional relations and economics major. When I asked him about CIA abuses, this applicant became defensive. "Cer- tainly things aren't happening the way they , were in '73 in Chile or in '54 in Guate- mala," he said. And even if the Agency did something he couldn't endorse, that would not have any bearing on his work. "You can compartmentalize," he ex- plained. "If I'm an analyst with them, they may knock offa Chilean leader, but I didn't do it. I'm an analyst." He later asked me not to use his name. Elizabeth Michels, next in line for an interview at SATS, also viewed working for the CIA as a way of pursuing her academic interest, international economics. "The, work they do is highly respected." she said. "It is thorough and highly professional. That's not a bad sort of agency to be as- sociated with." Her admiration for the scholarly rep- utation of the CIA stemmed in part from her contact with professors at Georgetown. University who had worked for the Agency. iiipp37ilaffilycroctiterio4.the most brilliant peo- ?reign p-IF in the field,' she said. and impressed -Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-0-11'37-R000 LAWRENCE JOURNAL-WORLD (KS) 11 September 1982 Edittrials CIA back in demand 25X1 B 100040001-4 Predictably, the figures are secret, and so are the contents of the recruiting interviews. But the cr,p.g.4?lagglioSar will say this much: More people thanever are trying to join up. "Business_is booming," reports Charles E. Jackson,- chief of recruitment at the agency. "We're seeing more resumes than , 'vie ever have." With a tight -job market and new attitudes about the agency, more and more young people reportedly are looking into career which many of their older brothers and sisters would - never have considered. With the Vietnam War and the spate of student demonstrations across the country no longer the order of the day, the CIA's recruitment activities are increasingly being:-:L conducted in the open. ? The agency advertises in newspapers. Like recruiters from such long-time campus frequenters as Procter & Gamble; its representatives go from college to college, interviewing undergraduates and talking about such things as salary, work- ing conditions and health insurance benefits. About two years ago the agency published a recruiting booklet. But even with its new openness, a cloak of mystery still rounds the CIA, and this is reflected in "Intelligence: The Acme ? of Skill," the booklet published by the agency and used by its recruiters. The publication is almost, to use a word favored by-. the intelligence agency itself, a sanitized version of intelligence. operations. ,j_.; ? ' s? Although the CIA has received heavy attention for its covert activities, the subject itself is barely covered the brochure. In- telligence, according to the booklet, "has less to do with cloaks and daggers than with the painstaking, generally tedious collec- tion of facts; analysis of facts, exercise of judgment and quick, clear evaluation." - - Interviews are conducted each day in 11 recruitment offices across the country and in the walk-in office at the agency's head, quarters near. Washington in Rosslyn, Va.,But despite its active ' recruitment program, the CIA remains 'highly selective in deciding who it lets into its ranks. ;. For its career trainees, traditionally the entry-level -profeS-:: sional employees, the agency looks for people in their. 20s to the- age of 32 with graduate degrees in international affairs: If ap-, plicants_have lived overseas or have done some international _traveling, so much the better. Language abilities are another plus. Applicants with computer science, electronics; economic;- or enginering backgrounds are also in demand. The starting ? salary; as high as $22,500. , ? _ - . ON7Thrur Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R0001 NEW YORK TIMES 18 FEBRUARY 1982 . ARTICLE APPEARED ON PAGE 25X1 B -Dagger Business Edoming, . By DAVIlYSIIRIBMAN ' ' Special WThe limo York Tbzes WASHINGTON, Feb. 17 --The "fig- ures are secret. SO are the Contents of the recruiting interviews. But the Cen- tral Intelligence AgencY,can say this much: More :people- than: ever-are ?tryingtojoinup.-?,:;. ? ? ,.:- ? . "Business is ..'haniiiing," reports Charles E., Jackson,. chief of recrult4,,ti'i ment at the agency.- "We're seeing more resumes than we ever have..." -\?,,y4-1; 47.','-427-'..-_--J4-=3V... ?-?,-,-, '4'4- ft-z-m!???-;k _11 ,? .....? 'Te--4'..C*-:??:--7,14.;:z.-. _.....-... 0.. 4'....,....' ' "--';' Interviews are conducted each dai2-. With a tight job market and isiii ai-7Y.:,t, -:: ?1,7,7:4?,. in the 11 recruitment offices across the titudes about the agency, more and-- : -.'ir:- - country and in the walk-in office at the. more young people are looking into a.?: '.. agency's headquarters near Washing-- career that marn/ of their older broth tonin Rosalyn. Va. But despite its ac. ? ers and si,sters would never have- cois:.'.., tive recruitment program. the C.I.A. -_ sidered. Andrnow.,rith. the yietnanC,:: remains ererf selective in decidir0 War and the S'ate-of student demon-... : ? who will join its ranks. . - ?. . ] strationi across the covarstry ended; the -:-.1 . For its carter trainees, traditionally_ C.I-9..'s recruitment activities are in- " . ?. . : . . - . ..-.. ;. _-the .entri-level PlVelsional employ- 1 creasing11/7 being..:_ceoducted- in. the , ' I England and Sir Fr-axicis -Walsing. ees, the agency looks for peoplejri ?Pen- -, ,-', -%,-,??::?????/?? :.,,,-,--?_- ?;.,-...;--..?!...?. i:.;?????-!, - ham who, according to the photo cap..: their 2irs to the age of 32 with graduate- s The agency-advertises _.1n..newspa-.;7-.,tiOn.. "created an extensive intelli- degrees in international affairs. If ap-7.--, ? pars. Like recruiters from such long-- gence organization which sent agents plicants have lived o-ferseas or hate- time campus frequenters as Proctor &- to foreign lands." Later, there is a full- ' - had clone some international travel;: . ..Gamble, its representatives buzz from page picture of a group of people car- ' ing, so much the better. Language -college to college. interviewing eager. ,,--,.? rying a giant-size picture of Josef abilities are another plus. Applicants undergraduates ? and, talking ? about.; Stalin in a street march and the cap- with computer science, electronic ??? such things as salary. working condi-,-.-. , ticn: "In its early years, the Central ? economic or enginerin,g background.; ? -ticns and. health insurance. benefits. Intelligence Agency's primary con, - are also in demand. The starting sal- Two yeariago the agency puhlished a -:.i, cern Was with Soviet military- activi- , arf: as high es 122,500. :- - recruiting hooltlen,:;7, ?,,-_-_-.74.1, 7 ._-r-_-,;1--.tiesandpolitical intentions." ,:.,- ?= : On campuses, the agency's recruit- ?? - - -' - ; --- -,,-,1 ?,,,,..w., Although the agency has received em work_in-the manner traditional' of , --- ' -?'-- Still a Cloakof Mystery ? - , ?- ; - ,r? : chattention f ? rt -vi th ti . 1 est bus- - - , ,-,,,_ mu or its cove act/ - ? e /la ce s arg messes, check--1 But even-with-its new openness, aT: ties, ?? the subject itself is barely coy- ing in with the college plaoement-ditl i _ cloak of mystery. still surrounds the - .... ezed in the brochure. Intelligence. ac- rector-and making a presentation."-,! 7 C.I A, and this is reflected in.!"Intelli- cording to the booklet, "has less to dia-.: There is almost always a fast-paced-1 ? gence: The Aerne Of Skill.", the booklet?. with cloaks and daggers than with the,: slide show. From time to ? time 'an' I published by the agency and Used by ,- ?painstaking, generally tedious collee- agentortwois int-ochiced. ?,:. ??;???:---.1 : its .recruiters. ate publication is al- tion of facts, analysis of facts; exercise. These days, nearly two decades- most; to-use a Word favored by the ix..... -.of judgment and quick; clear evalua- from the era of large student protest; telligenc?e agency itielf, ,-zi _ sanitizek: tion." :,. - -:-.,- ' - i seldom is heard a discouraging word 4, ; version of intelligence operations.---? '. ::-; , Cloaks and daggers excepted; the from demonstrators. "We think those ,-. Beside-the introduction,- for eia.M-:,:, brochure is lavishly illustrated. A pie- days are behind us," said Mr. Jack-7 i pie, are pictures of. Queen-iFillabeth. f..`,..ture of its headqUarters is inset in a-;-' sal- "We'rp doing very well:" - ? '_ .1 .. ? - - .,.. ...- ---,--.- - -, -e,.. .... -. , _-_-zs, :-,,-., ? .,..,. ..-,...-- , ? - . - ..r.. . -_--..,..;- f;';;L:42 3A-...T4-,1 1' , '.,-, .-CL.: ,.--: ,-,_ : ;1,341 :-:?-?.:t,r..".r. ..'-;_r:i wide shot of the attack on Pearl Har-'1 bor. There is a picture of a mushroortc?A c.lcud. And there are pictures of un-: named C.I.A. employees accompanied by tnantes like this, from a senior ana4'.... - lyst with the agency: "I believe that- the analyst is at the center of the intelz ligence process and, I would like to be?. / lieve, the most important part of the intelligence prooess." - ? ?-???-? .? Interviews Conducted Daily : Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01.137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R THE PROGRESSIVE October 1981 YE SHALL NOT KNOW ANYTHING EZZI=I:424=" L44VGLEY , VIRGINIA "We believe that as much information as possible about the Central Intelligence Agency and the Intelligence Community should be shared with the public." declares ? the thirty-page document bound. in deep red covers. The booklet, Intelligence?The Acme of Skill, includes an "intelligence glossary" that points out the-difference 'be- tween "clandestine" and -covert action," a CIA chronology,- a' question-and-answer , Section, and an array of trivia: the CIA headquarters and grounds cover 219 acres; "works of art grace the building's entire tirst floor" (the majority ..being "abstract With an emphasis on color studies"); there are "more Ph.D.'s employed by the CIA than ? by any other Government agency." The publication's - title comes from a quote attributed to ?Sun .Tzu, Military Strategist, China, 400 B.C." which states,' "To find security- without fighting is the acme of skill." To further confirm that -in- telligence is nothing new," other citations .7--r7,---;"--???? ? - . k - %- ? 00100040001-4 .-.-",?;.?,`t1,?_?,'..4i'10;4'-?...";_r?i.,-_-0-,--'-':-rr:-...i-,'- 14 ,, ?--? --). ,-.4,-:-.; .---;:-. "......' -''' kr:',,tik - ? - ,--...".:". ' ' ....?3.),..-4--"4--s_u_. i _,..,t._74,-.--,-; -.._ r_v_:....--. -'---_:.:...-..-?,..."-Z-7r.r.r..L... e4LL...4 -? . ...1 !!?0,,,4..0.116t,l!i.lik.511.:.1111111.11.31;. :..Z.2:',I,n1M;', 11111i111.1 hill ...14,..i,1,1! :10:111?Iii.bitil......,...,.^-_-:r-,??;57.'?./?-? 1 ? ,,,, .341A, 404.2:; ?? - - - ?*.? ,,,, ? , ;It! ??-;A' 2. ? ,t ? - t;',21c ? . , ? - ? ',-,-,-7?, ?.iisi:Alif? .4.1.piiiii,-1,?-,s, ,,'--. --""--" 27 ,.... i,-ii,.- .1,.. 3. ?.'iL 11%!ii-;;::,,,,L,,, '?...,??;4-'17,--c- :1' i iP,,-4,'5:,_:4:#11...i 711:',f'._?: ' WOE WOALC) r1-101 OS . CIA headivarters at Langley: lowering include the old testament, Queen Elizabeth I, and the Thirteenth Century Mongol leader. Subotai. who "directed his force l; to spectacular military successes in their inva- sion of Europe" because he had good spies. What is perhaps more significant about The Acme of Skill is that it exists at all. Its publisher is the CIA itself?the CIA of sun- nier times when some small efforts to illu- minate its dark dens were made. Today, publications of this nature have short shelf lives; already CIA Director William Casey. has eliminated the Agency's office of public affairs, which produced the booklet. In so doing, he declared, "The time has come for the blinds . . the CIA to return to its more traditional, low-public profile."' Who knoWs what other thing S the-CIA 'will return to, if indeed it evWleft them? The Acme-of Skill notes that a biblical verse is engraved in Georgia marble in the central lobby of CIA headquarters: "And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free.?John VIII-XXXII." At this writing, it is unknown whether CIA Llki rector. Casey has moved in with sand- blasters. PRIMACK (Phil Prim ack is a free-lance writer in Ep. ping, New Hampshire.) Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R0001M4Cio ARTICLE APPEARED SALES & MARKETING MANAGEMENT ON PAGE_gi? 17 August 1981 MABILETERSI ?ET CETERA i:':-.--- ?: A little. p.r. never hurt ? .. anybody?not even- the CIA. One call to the agen--. -_, cy's public affairs office (yes, it has one) will get . _-%?...?..,..... you ,a jf,: gloSsy.7;.-s- oklet T--:,--_, -- entitled, Int011iieticiTh 1 Acme- ,of.-:Sk-ill.:::I.The'Vtitle'l'.." comes froa quotehy one: . . . , - _Stm Tzu, a Chinese mili-:1 : tary-- strategist.-?Whel;lived ----, .....___ _-_ -,, around 400 B.C.:and said, -__ - , ..,,, : `-fo-find securitywitb out _ _fighting is the.L,Etime !. of -_)1l, _ The booklet contains -2S-_,.. ' :!;:historY:. of -the-;agencS7;-,--a , , - tglossary . of intelligence,? - .--, ,-. terms (example:--:-.:"ESpio-:,:_, nage?Intelligence , activ- ity. directed toward :=, the.-. acquisition- off-informer-- -, "-tion=through -?clandestine--73- -Meaiii."),- a- breekdown.-Of: the country's intelligence- gathering apparatus;-end '..';nii.t-chT,r1-.nore: Exampl.: ..- . . ? aseepleOften Ask -sectipri- Vhat:;lineWers such_, que_W. tion as -"Who spies for the) .,_ . ,Central Intel' igence Age&'--1 . .p? .- ... --- -_,cy_.:,-;_aria, what is covertA , . ..ii-:. tion? -,--- -.?, - - - ,- -izz:1-ncluded in Hae bookletr.I :. . - printout - of- ai4cIA-zi i:41.thikations::,- and :1:rtiaps,5,, z-available to the publi-Ciuid'..:j hii-w-Ao': get them:-Ittlists ...,_ - , -, .' ? .=-. , --,.-.1 :-suchthings as-a wall cha4z, - of the Hungarian Socialisttd ? Workers Party, and -arti-fl-?j cles-i.on 'The Bleak., ,Pres--_:_ j pects-, for Meeting KainPia;_i i, cheaeFood Needs,7:aind ,71-lybrid Rice Development- and Seed - Production ',;;.iii .:. --Chinalf' ? ?_ 25X-1B 01-4 i-CIA4'rboOklet_takeA a,pagelor_:two,from:lzisto Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2# 4, : Mt RD P 9 0-011 37 RO 0 01 0 0 0 0001-4 EXGr2,1(P17.4.); ? Soviet ASTP Effort Wins CIA Approval Washington?Outlook for successful completion of the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project is good, the Central Intelligence Agency said last week, because preparations "have been more extensive and thorough than for any previous Soviet mission." While calling this assessment "incongruous when compared with recent Soviet flight history," the CIA said Soviet testing and checkout of the spacecraft and crew 'training set new marks. In addition, the agency said that recent Soviet failures in launch, docking and reentry would have no effect on the U. S. crew if they were to reoccur during ASTP. The CIA study of the Soviet space program was done at the request of Sen. William Proxmire (D.-Wis.): chairman of the Appropriations subcommittee that oversees the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. He released a summary of the study On the eve of the ASTP launches. The main advantage the Soviets gained from ASTP las been observation of U. S. management and operations techniques,- the CIA said. There was some flow of tech- ? nology to the USSR through ASTP, but future joint missions "would pose more of a potential for technology drain," the summary said. The threat of a minor fire in the Soyuz spacecraft?poses "a moderate risk" to the . Joint mission, the CIA said, and the risk of a major fire is much less likely. ' - The U. S. has a "significant technological lead" over the Soviet Union in a number of areas, according to the CIA, including: ? Communications. IN Flight and ground crew training and ground crew proficiency. N Launch procedures. IR Ability to make inflight mission changes. ? Space medicine. The two countries are about equal, the CIA said, in tracking capability, backup sys- _ terns, life-monitoring systems and environmental safety.. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 ARTICLE Apptoffved For Relealtiph3ffili ikEIDEV-01137R000100040001-4 ON PAGE ata7,At May 1984 425X1Erw 'Israel reported set to pick u U.S. role with La By Frank Greve z hiquirer Washingtor! --WASHINGTON ? Israel, which has helped arm and train the United States' allies in Central America for a decade, would be able to expand its military role in the region if US. aid were cut back, according to internal tional arms authorities. - ? Israeli 'government spokesmen de-- tiled that Israel would act as-a surro- gate for the United States in its sup- port for anti-leftist governments and guerrillas in Central America and said that no such -formal arrange- ment has been reached. U.S. officials also said no such deal exists. But knowledgeable sources inside and outside the U.S. government who , asked not to be' identified said they believed that Israel would help US. allies in Central America if Congress reduced its military assistance to ?those nations. The action might not be in concert with the United States, but it would be good business ? and business of the sort Israel has sought in the past. The Israeli government considers its arms sales secret, but evidence of the Israeli role in Central America is easy to come by. For example: ? When asked last month where - his men had acquired their Soviet- designed AK47 automatic rifles, Nic- araguan rebel leader Enrique Ber- mudez answered, "From the weapons ? that the Israeli government took from the PLO in Lebanon." ? When reporters asked Guatema- lan Gen. Efrain Rios Montt to explain - the success of the coup that brought himto power in March 1982, he an- swered that it was "because many of our soldiers were trained by Israe- lis." Rios Montt since has been de- posed. ? When nominally neutral Costa Rica decided in 1982 to beef up its Internal security; -Haaretz, the re- spected Israeli mainstream newspa- per, disclosed that "Israel will sell arms and give counterinsurgency training to the Costa Rican police.: ? The same newspaper reported in ? November 1981 that Israeli advisers were training government counter- insurgents in El Salvador, a claim repeated by opposition members of the Israeli parliament. All four incidents involved Israel with Central American clients whose objectives the United States support- ed. In each instance, the United States could not, for one reason or another, provide direct miltary aid at the time. _ _ All four reports elicited no com- ment or carefully crafted official Is- raeli denials. And yet they are but four of many examples of Israel's large and controversial role as a ma- jor Central American arms trader. As suct,lareeLisisiegav positioned to help resupply the CIA-backed con- tras in Nicaragua or the govern- ments of El Salvador or Guatemala if Congress cuts off fundh_a_fer_any_or all Central American operations. ? If Israel decided independently to ? aid the same missions, the US. ad- ministration could suffer some con- gressional funding cuts without seri- ous harm to US. allies in the region. Indirect reimbursement of Israel by the United States would not be diffi- cult, said several international arms experts who spoke on the condition , that they not be identified. President Reagan was asked dur- ing his news conference last week to explain what seemed to be invisible sources of support for the contras. They could not be aided secretly by the United 'States "without the knowledge of Congress," Reagan re- plied, but he did not address the possibility that another country might be aiding the rebels. The Washington Post, quoting on- -identified sources. reported last week that tte CIA _bad approched both Israel and Saudi Arabia seeking their covert aid to the colitis. Israeli Embassy spokesman Victor Harel said: "We are not American surrogates in Central America or anywhere else. We are denying any help to the contras." ? He said he could not rule out the possibility that a customer for Israeli arms might resell them. "Weapons go to a destination and then who knows what happens?" Harel said. "A111 can say is that, to the possibility of third ' deals done with our approval, I com- pletely deny it." Harel also said, "There are no Is- 'melt military advisers, trainers or ? military experts in the whole area of Central America." He said he did not know whether retired Israeli mili- tary personnel were working in the region. He described some Israelis living in Central America as sales- men for Israeli arms dealers who ? have taught customers to use weapons. Regardless of whether the United States has been urging Israel to as- sume -a military role in Central ? America, Israeli arms merchants to- day account for about 40 percent of the nation's- exports, according to studies of international arms sales. Israel ranked seventh in arms ex- ports in 1982, with $1.25 billion in export sales, according te Ihe Stock- holm International Peas&jlesearc,h ? Institute. A CIA report, using a $1.6 billion figure for 1982 sales, rated Israel fifth, after the United States the Soviet Union. France and Britain. Since its decision in 1967 to expand Its domestic defense industry, Israel has found its best markets, according to independent accountings of the international arms trade, insuch countries as South Africa, Argentina and Chile. "The United States sells to its ? friends; Israel sells to hard curren- cy," concluded one Senate arms spe- -cialist whO atked not to be identified. 'Be characterized the Israeli mar- Continued Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 f r'IT:LE APPEARED Approved For RelealiSSON0479qA-RDP90-011 ON PAGE BOB LEVEY'S WASHINGTON 37R000100040001-4 Shbh! i4i Ektra , realize you're probably reading this at a .1 brightly-lit breakfast table, dear friends?in full [ - ' view of your family, your cat and your Maker. .:, But imagine yourself under a lamppost, on a ? foggy night, in a trench coat. Because that's the " setting in which such news ought to be delivered._ . ? _. The awful truth: someone at the CIA thinks , there's a June 31. This amazing revelation arrived in about as roundabout a fashion as you could wish. But it all began with a woman from Sterling. Back in August, she wrote to say she had "waited in vain for some mention of the government ? calendar for 1984." I couldn't imagine why I'd ever , write about something so bereft of excitement; But, tucked under the woman's note was the evidence.. According to this calendar, producer unknown, June had grown an extra day. If anything ever looked like a job for Beth , Kaiman, Ace Researcher, this sure did. "See if you can find out whodunnit, Ace, and why," I said. : ..?? But the more Beth got into it, the more it looked as if she'd have to leave it to her grandchildren to finish. . Officials at the Government Printing Office said. '. they'd haVe to see the calendar before commenting.-.' Beth sent them a photocopy. Not ours, said they. ?. -:_?,:, Off went another photocopy, this one to Bob ' ? ." Fiser in the public affairs office of the General . Services Administration. Bob said the calendar ? .wasn't a GSA product, but may have been produced and circulated independently at another government agency. Which? Bob didn't knciw. Next stop: Our very own dapper federal . government columnist, Mike Causey. Mike said it i.: couldn't be an official Uncle Sam calendar because ? those Have "U.S. Government" printed at the bottom. He agreed that it might have been ? produced independently by?or at?some agency. Dead-ended, Beth sat down to have a long think. One agency. . . .Produced, independently. .No one seems to knoW ? anything".':: . .Hmmmmmm . Could it be? It was.' CIA spokesperson Kathy Pherson contacted the 'agency's printing office. Operatives there Lnfirmed that they had printed the ' ,calendar.":But it was never aiV..-ributed?, the printing 'folk said, because the error was discoveram you can sleep soi-Ti ly again, right? This'll wake you up. , mole is loose at the CIA. , A calendar mole. Pherson said all-copies of the lime 31 calendar1. were supposed to have been destroyed. _ ?:?-.77,Shed-thit-?1-i-e?alid-rhe printing services office :."ar-E-SuT-Pi-is-Ed-th-ara copy w6irflTliaeri--7-- - -77-Maybe I've been reading too many thrillers, but I l? Can see it now: Comics page of Pravda. ? ? , - Column Called Bob Ivanovich's Moscow, "The decadent capitalists have proven once again ..that they are an inferior society," Bob would write. .nley cannot even read a calendar! An American-based correspondent has obtained a ,document that proves Approved For Release .2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 C.))2R - ON PA GE Approved For ReleiFRAMIIO42f6RA-RDP90-01 25 MARCH ]97T Jac k Anderson _and _Les Whitten C U 7:1T ,1!_ ? (I) 4- 0 111 Lap The Central Intelligence Agency has ? conducted a secret survey of the flood ? of petrodollars into the United States. Over the past three years, according to the CIA survey, the oil-producing countries have invested an astounding billion in U.S. holdings.. Some CIA anzlysts fear this prodi-, gious financial stake could influence U.S. action hi any future Middle East crisis. Thenation's most influential fin- ancial leaders, the analysts suggest,. might feel compelled to support the Arab cause. - -;.n? n ? . ? For 'example, members of -the ization of Petroleum Exporting Coun- tries have entrusted their portfolios to the nation's largest banks, particularly Chase Manhattan, Morgan ? Guaranty, Bank of America and New York's First National City Bank. ? j ?. Thus the Arab oil. potentates have. become big coustorners of these pow- erful banks. Presumably, this will heighten their sympathy for the Arab : viewpoint. For once the Arabs get a hold on a banker's pocketbook, his heart and mind will usually follow. ? ? - Yet the petrodollars have been chan- neled discreetly into the U.S. economy. With the single exception of the shah of Iran,' the oil potentates have been careful to avoid purchasing controll- ing interests in American firms. The rise and fall of the stock market, plus deposit -withdrawals and, other transactions, have reduced the value . of the 3,134 billion OPEC investment in , the United States by $2 billion, accord- ing to the CIA. The CIA estimate is that the oil-producing nations are pumping - . , . ? ? ? ? ? ? , about 20 per cent of their available funds into this country. . At first, most. of the money, accord-- , ing to confidential Treasury Depart- ment documents, was put into "com- mercial hanks as short-term dep-..tsi ts." thus creating "widespread fear that a saidden withdrawal or shifting of these deposit; would lead to a collapse of certain banking institutions." .. But around mid-1975, the OPEC .- countries began to concentrate more ... on long-term holdings. Their financial ..,. power, meanwhile, has been slowly in- creasing ? in the executive suites of '? Am 'c .- - - s.?-:"' _ _ . . . _ . Baekrooni?Nfiair?We - ave r?=? c ed the cozy ? relationship betw - th federal energy .regulators and a oil coons they regulate. Now, a start i cr, confidential memo; C gress _ had ac used. the Federal .En gy? Ad: - ministraC Ora of condoning t. criminal conduct ot he oil crowd. ? . The 3 memo, p. epared by in- - vestigators lo.L the Ho e Energy and - . Power Subcoran tte? declares:. "Our -- investigation show ere is considera- ble evidence of p9 itial criminal vio- lations of the st? utes and regulations administered 4 FEA. However, the agency failed fo develop the means to conduct the necessary -ir estigations ? for effe.ctiv presentation o this evid- ? ence to t e Justice Depart'en t' for prosecuti n." - : . ? ? ' -. " There' is more to the story. Cu investigation has found that the wit'. s- ,._ ly is 'unable to audit the major r ners. Without this capability to 90raduct criminal investigations or au- pit., the FEA may be letting the indus- 137R000100040001-4 -on ? ry rip off the public to the tune tandretis of millions of dollars. .? EA officials across the country ha pleaded for criminal inv...,5 .t.] a- tors to- crack down on oil crimii als. . Audi rs have begged for instructions and :we personnel. But the re.,_3,1esn3 liava r ,eived resounding reject- ns in ? Washita,. ton. The F A is charged W5th prr. tecting the publl from energy frau 3_ Here are just a f w examples: ..._ , .. ' .4. The not ous `.'daisy eh- an" chases involved pa., er. .. sales of petroleum products, wit.. no real ovement of the. .petroleu .: ..Phony middlemen ;merely sold th paper ork back and ? -forth, jacking u the rice .with. each `transaction. Yet hes cases gathered dust in the PEA fo ? nths. - - :. . ? a The energy aa ncy killed several ? investigations beca e its regional of ft- dais refused to co peate with one an- other. When reg Jnal leads demanded sovereignty ov r cerin cases. the :probes came to n a bru_ t halt. * The gene al counse s office also delayed train )rtant Cas,, involving millions of -Vilars in p sible over- charges to he consumers. The delays ! ;vete mine essary? -..-, - - ---. - By the time the energy a ncy cor- rects the deplorable situation if ever, it may e too late. The statute r limi- tations/on the crimes could rt out. Many of the violations ()court: d as long 7Tgo as the 1973 Arab oil emba o'o. - .Fortnote: New PEA .Administr ? tor Jol7fi O'Leary told us he recognized is ncy's failings and planned to co ct.thenn Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 4 Approved For iRelease 2002/06/24 :-C-1-ARDP-90:01-137R0 TA17.1 E A.HEARZB ARMED FORCES JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL 01; Mar ch 1953 The Failure to Defend De '0100040001-4 Weinberger and Casey Fail to Strike the Proper Military Balance by Anthony H. Cardesman and Benjamin E Schemmer ven in the best economic cli- mate, defense must compete with other uses of public funds. In a major recession, every defense dol- lar must be shown to be necessary. This is partly a matter of efficiency and effec- tiveness: the American people_most be- lieve that their tax dollars are being spent wisely. It is also, however, a mat- ter of convincing the American people that a strong defense is necessary to meet the Soviet threat. This is not simply a matter of showing that Soviet? forces are increasing in size and capability, it is a matter of showing that planned US force improvements are a well-judged re- sponse to the trends in the Soviet threat. For the last decade, the Secretary of Defense and the Director of Central In- telligence have published comparisons of US and Soviet forces as part of the annu- al budget cycle to support the Presi- dent's proposed defense budget. The De- fense Secretary has explained the strategic balance, the trend in theater nuclear forces, the trend in conventional forces, and the trends in the NATO and Warsaw Pact Alliances, while the Direc- tor of Central Intelligence has published detailed dollar cost estimates of US and Soviet defense spending. These data have shaped the Reagan Administration's buildup of US forces. The comparisons of US and Soviet forces have furnished the essential ratio- nale for increased defense spending, and a critical perspective on the size of the US defense budget and the adequacy of US forces. Although many readers may not realize it, most of the statistical and graphic data that shaped the SALT II debate, and many of the qualifying words necessary to give such numbers meaning, came from the Annual Report of the Secretary of Defense and the Mili- tary Posture statement of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Virtually all of the data on the inadequacy of US forces and de- fense expenditures that President Rea- gan campaigned on came from these sources. They underpin every reputable work on the military balance and on US and Soviet defense expenditures. ? Omitting the Facts from the Secretary's FY84 Annual Report The merits of providing as much data on the balance as possible should be ob- vious to a conservative Administration which won election through its use of such data, which advocates a strong de- fense, which now faces a massive defense budget battle in the Congress, which faces an even greater battle over arms control, and which must try to persuade its allies to maintain their defense spend- ing in the face of a world recession. The Reagan Administration seemed to un- derstand this when it wrote its first se- ries of defense posture statements. It published more statistical material on the balance in FY83 than any previ- ous Administration. Somewhere along the line, however, things have gone astray. As Table One shows, Secretary Weinberger has re- moved virtually all of the useful data on the balance from the Defense Depart- ment's two main defense policy and bud- get statements. Even Table One under- states just how much material has been censored in FY84, or is presented in an inadequate or potentially misleading form. With almost Orwellian timing, the Secretary of Defense has made "1984" the year in which the truth about the balance is missing from his defense of the nation's defense budget. Canceling CIA Public Reporting on the Soviet Military Budget and Activities in the Third World Secretary Weinberger has not acted alone. William Casey, the Director of Central Intelligence, has killed the CIA's annual estimate of Soviet defense I spending. The Agency will no longer publish its Dollar Cost Comparison of./ Soviet and US Defense Activities, perhaps the most quoted work it has ever issued. CIA reporting will evidently be confined to the release of selected data to the Congress and press, although in a form that will lack sufficient analytic detail and backup to be cgrt;ing-Cingilii the face of intelligent questions or criticism. Ac- cording to an official CIA spokesman, the Director has done this as part of a general policy of eliminating all public CIA reporting on military matters and Soviet forces. He has also eliminated the Agency's annual estimate of Soviet military and economic assistance to Third World countries and its reporting on the num- ber of Soviet military and economic ad- visors overseas. This information used to be published in a document entitled Communist Aid Activities in Non-Corn- munist Less Developed Countries The title of this report is so esoteric that its importance may not be obvious, but it was the only useful source of data on the number of Soviet bloc and Com- munist advisors in foreign countries, the number of foreign military trained in the Soviet bloc, and the size of Soviet eco- nomic and military aid to Third World nations. Without it, there is no reliable source of data on the number of Cuban, Soviet, East German, or PRC military in nations like South Yemen or Ethiopia or on the intensity of the Soviet effort to target given Third World nations. The same CIA spokesman made it clear that the Director's new policy ap- plies to far more than these two periodi- cals. When asked whether the CIA would issue any further statistical or an- alytic data of any kind on threat military forces, he replied, "Nothing." Some lower-level CIA staff have raised some more serious issues. Al- though there is no way of confirming their views, some feel that the reporting on Soviet defense may have been elimi- nated because it disclosed serious analyt- ic problems and uncertainties in the CIA effort in this area. One CIA analyst also raised the issue of whether the report on Soviet expenditures was being dropped because it would disclose a leveling out or drop in the rate of growth in Soviet defense spending and equipment produc- tion over the last two years, although he noted that this conclusion was "contro- versial" and scarcely reduced the ratio- nale for increases in the US defense bud- get. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137 THE WASH I NGT ON POST 28 September 1978 ARTICLE APPEARED ON PAGE A -18 East-West ace pert lit Over roo i.? Some experienced "Western negotiators believe that the real issue is not the data problem. hut Whether the Soviets ?will decide they want a troop reduction agreement. If they do, these- offkmals ar- gue. than- there are: enough loophole* in the data .auestion for Moscow to proceed with an agreenient. an agreement by, watering down: itiown- figures- irr ? order to reach a compromise:4.--4,7,7L.t",'.--.Z.-7.-7:t.7.7".7 . The 805,000 figure -was, first broached, Wittenetort By Michael Getler,?.' Wasbtasson Pest lovrolvis Serria? VIENNA?Allied officials at a new round of East- West troop reduction talks set to open here today privately claim that the Soviet Bloc "is either fid- dling, cheating or lying" about the number of troops:. it has along the Central European front facing the West' -4' ? The biggest discrepanciesAllied officials- say-;are responding detail, bythetWarsaw Pact in June 1978., in the number- of Soviet and Polish troops,: as /op. . ',.' posed to East German and Czechoslovak: soldier* Since-thin -SOviet President LeonictiBrezhnev, has: . that the Warsaw pact claims are in the region-stated . publicly that the Warsaw-Pacb?has?not-e-tided: ered by thenegotiationa. _ .,_ ': _ , ' ? ? ? ? - -. any more Soldiers ? in the;.field-,husheq. Soviet*. r-,? . . _ . _.. must stick to the same figuret..or: Sing.gestllttichnee How can-- they talk that, way." counters a senior : ,statements. , , were false.: ? - ? -- '' . '" :- ?..,', --i, , -' ..... Communist diplomat here, "they have no roster"' of - ? Our military units or personnel.' ,:. - ' .,-,- 'i .:,,r. -4, , , - - Actually, Western delegates here say they could, .... not really prove Brezhnev - wrong. The: Soviet build- These opposing views concern, What' negotiators--- ? up in-- recent years has been-. in- equipment: rather - on both sides of the- NATO-Warsaw Pact "mutualA .. than-men, they say, and the Pact forces-were much:: ' and balanced: force reductioe - (MBFR). talks.. call. _ larger- to- begin with before June 1978.,' - ?, "the data issue' . ,. '.'.. . '-- -_,?'?.?-_-_:,..-- - --_-7.-::.`,..?- , -.-; ?-' ' Officials in several Western' countries insist th? i In brief, it refers to a- Western., contention that the - is an area where Allied intelligence is extremely Soviet-led Pact has about 155,000 more soldiers in. good. \--the whole ot western intelligence simply. - Central Europe than the Pact :will admit to offi- could not have- been that wrong for the past la cially.years."-. one othcial said. ? , . ?., - - In a deeper sense, it-raises the puzzling question ? Intelligence on East. Germany is viewed. at' eiri , for ' Western officials of why - the Soviets arts:-?.1 ' daily good because of closeness to the Western bor- - "fiddling, cheating or lying" overtly to the West in a ? ,ders. heavy travel by West Germans in the East and field where Western intelligence is-highly confident' -the handful of 'Allied military liaison-posts around of its estimates.. , -, ._ . ...- . . ' Berlin. '. - - , - . ? :7 _-?-?t:-.,- ? ,,, !--:-. - - -. -_ The issue represents an enormous and possibly in- The massive movement of: Soviet': -forces- into surmountable obstacle that must be overcome if Czechoslovakia in 1968 and a steady flow of Czech ' these long-stalled negotiations that have been: going -. defectors also helps pinpoint data on that country on for five years.' here are ever to yield an agree-- : US. intelligence is focused heavily on-Soviet forees. meat that will reduce- military forces, and hopefully r Defectors- diplomats: soy satellites and electronic-. ? tensions, along the most critical East-West border. ? ... eavesdropping all contribute to intelligence that, What makes this' new round?the 16th since the ? along with equipment information; leads to final es- ? talks began in October 197Z---so potentially-_crucia_ . ? tunates of manpower. , . -. : -,, as a test of good faith is that it is. the first- since the ' - As to why the Soviets would-seek to- Confront the Soviet Bloe submitted new proposals ":7 West with figures the West knew to. be. Wrong,. one . - . In those proposals, the Soviet Bloc appeared to : experienced official reasons that it Perhaps does not agree. at ? least conceptually, to the . long-standing signal aliarder Soviet line but is rather,"a neces- - Western position_that there should be approximate_ ?:: sary Stage that they rmust'-go. through. lxs:convince ? parity and w common troop ceiling for both forces themselves that we won't aceept it."--:--sc.-:_ri-J7.',..-4,.`,_-.- -.: in the region.. The Soviet Bloe agreed to a- common,' :,,". ::-.9thers believe the June proposals -were born out,. ceiling of about 900.000 army and air force person-- : '.OV SoVietBloc concerns that a new NATO long-term., i tion on 700.000 ground troops.: _ . -.. - '? ?- - ?,----, ;.- ._ defense program, which could offset-some Warsaw nel on each-side: with the-key figire-being a limita.-- Pace-strength,' was moving ahead- and that the new--, These-proposals-were hailed, albeit-cautiously-, by - - -proriosal-might help stall that initiative.-- !----1 ? - -?.; , President Carter last June- as."a step_ in the right ? :--Most here-view the June proposals asp-clever bit, direction!' The Soviets, he said, had'. now replied to ? of progress, "superficially seductive:7'as one official_ 1 earlier Western proposals --in i very affirmative , -. -put it , ?-..-...:?:..- - ? --1,, --:. -1- , ..-- :-..? ? -.-.: .,:. _,' ' ,' ?,_----- : way 7:- - ,? - The Move recaptured the initiativeite from the West, ." - - -,- , , - ..?-,'.? ---._ - ? -, - , In the following Months however, it became- ap.--.: .- so that- it is now A Soviet proposal that. is the most! i parent that the data supplied by the Warsaw-. -Fact" ' recent one on the table. Western officials here say - and the line being taken- here by: Communist oil-'-- - they presently-have no new proposal- to-present-at ; cials indicate no change in. the Eastern arithmetic. this ? new round but rather will -press the Warsaw-- ? ? The allies insist that the Warsaw Pact has MAO, ? Pact on-providing more details in. an, attempt to ' grounds troops and needs to withdraw 262,000 to:. . ? focus on-the source of the data dispute: .. _ ? ? - reach the ceiling. The Soviet bloc 'contends it only ? . , :. A Communist official says that "there arepossibil- ? has 805,000 ground troops and thus only-has to-with-1'7 I - ties to show good will and the data discussion is not "draw 105,000 to comply._ --- _ , ..._-,-.--. . .- , . -...-..4':...--: completely sterile' He suggests' that the- West, The Soviet have-not. disputed ,NATO'S. estiniate. !:,. might be counting nonmilitary- groups, such.-as rail- - .. ? of 791,000 Western ground troops43,..fhiclz'meerie ar-i.. ' road repair-crews, or that it-is makinglinistake in . Western reduction of 91,000. . - ?.-.;.:. r- _ ' -:.::',.I-S-???i?-? 1,'? assigning the same military manning labels_ - to ' In effect, the Soviets argue that there is already -".:troops in the rear as those close to the fro_ _ _.nt...- - - -- r rough Parity in the t -'zirglieWrriReekizEles2 2/06/2431:e0AWDR901-011411744009VOtediliOSIIY: that the Soviets- apPaetiot- to . have-budged -,atIall -.::?- only-active-duty, -nonreserve troops are included in' m . fro their long-held position that-they Will not give % ---,:.... Western- estimates. Stlll.. the search for face-saving i up the. relative. numerical superiority' they-have al-.1 '.: ...lo.opholeS will go on-,T.-,?;,,'? -, - ..;:',_. ,_ , ..z",._ ?- - 7 R000100040001-4 Approul 1114114. e be OFMIC0371R000100040001-4 PRESS RE 98th Congress Roger W. Jepsen, Iowa Chairman Lee H. Hamilton, Ind. Vice Chairman Senate: William V. Roth, Jr., Del. James Abdnor, S. Dak. Steven D. Symms, Idaho Mack Mattingly, Ga. Alfonse M. D'Amato, N.Y. Lloyd Bentsen, Texas William Proxmire, Wis. Edward M. Kennedy, Mass. Paul S. Sarbanes, Md. House: Gillis W. Long, La. Parren J. Mitchell, Md. Augustus F. Hawkins, Calif. David R. Obey, Wis. James H. Scheuer, N.Y. Chalmers P.-Wylie, Ohio Marjorie S. Holt, Md. Dan Lunoren, Calif. Olympia J. Snowe, Maine Bruce R. Bartlett Executive Director Contact; Bill Maddox (202) 226-3230 1983 -- 95 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE TO 6:00 P.M., SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 1963 PROXMIRE RELEASES CIA REPORT ON SOVIET ECONOMY Washington, D.C. -- Senator William Proxmire (D-Wis.) released today a new CIA study of economic trends and policy developments in the Soviet Union. The study, prepared by the Office of Soviet Analysis, CIA, was submitted by Robert Gates, Deputy Director for Intelligence, together with testimony presented to the Subcommittee on International Trade, Finance, and Security Economics of the Joint Economic Committee. Proxmire is Vice Chairman of the Subcommittee. Proxmire said in a statement from his Washington office: "The study presents the results of the CIA's latest study of the Soviet oil industry and Soviet energy prospects into the 1990's, reviews the recent perfor- mance of the economy, and provides new revised esti- mates of Soviet defense spending. "According to the CIA, Soviet economic activity has picked up somewhat in the present year and the CIA now forecasts a growth rate of 3.5 to 4 percent for 1983. However, the CIA has not changed its estimate that Soviet GNP will average only about 2 percent growth annually for the next several years. "The improvement is due in part to improved weather during the past year, in part due to Andropov's campaign for greater discipline. "In contrast with earlier estimates, energy is no longer considered to be a serious constraint on economic growth during the 1980's. "The CIA now believes the Soviet Union has avoided the downturn in oil production that was once predicted. Oil production is expected to continue growing, level off by the middle of the decade, and then decline slowly until 1990. Approve difie lieLLV?%4104Q61WriAiWeilfirg t.t3gRg9k100(149gt1 -the total costs of defense since 1976 has risen by only 2 percent : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 \ Approved For Release 200f/06/24 MIT I C A.1".?aP ?,?L URER WASHINGTOI\ ..eL OZ4 PAGEj.,, 11 July TIMES 1985 71/Z. AV 'Expelling U.S.' now radicals work it By Ted Agres THE WASHINGTON TIMES A new coordinated radical strategy has been devised to drive the United States out of key regions of the world, according to a recent threat assessment prepared for the CjA.. The architects of the strategy, the study says, include radical Third World states and terrorist groups, with clear support from the Soviet Union. Basic elements uniting the group, according to the report, are "extreme hostility toward the United States" and "deep anxiety over U.S. intentions and policies." This language is strikingly simi- lar to that used by President Reagan earlier this week in his speech to the American Bar Association when he outlined what he termed the "strate- gic perspective" behind the actions of international terrorists. He said Libya, Iran, North Korea, Nicaragua and Cuba are engaged in a "pattern of terrorism" designed "to disorient the United States, to dis- rupt or alter our foreign policy, to sow discord between ourselves and our allies [and] to remove American influence from those areas of the world where we are working to bring stable and demo- cratic government." "Their real goal is to expel America from the world." the pres- ident declared. Mr. Reagan cited terrorist training camps in Libya, arms provi- sions by Cuba and joint military operations in Nicaragua as evidence of mutual cooperation by the mem- bers of "Murder Inc." But he provided few details of the motivations and operations behind the strategy of expulsion. The stategy, however, is detailed in the new report, titled "Expelling America: A New Coordinated Radi- cal Strategy" It outlines the origins, participants, purpose and implica- tions for the United States of this radical expulsion strategy It also details the involvement of the Soviet Union in fomenting Third World terrorism against U.S. inter- ests ? details Mr. Reagan did not divulge in his address. A copy of the report was obtained by The Washington Times. The report lists Libya, Iran, Cuba and North Korea among the partici- pants in the coordinated terrorist strategy. In contrast to Mr. Reagan's list, the report includes Syria, but not Nicaragua. Mr. Reagan said his list was not inclusive, but administration offi- cials conceded that efforts by the government to elicit Syria's help in freeing seven remaining U.S. hos- tages in Lebanon led to the decision not to publicly brand Damascus at this time. The countries participating in the coordinated strategy are seeking to expel U.S. military, political and eco- nomic influence from five key regions of the world ? East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, West . Africa and Central America. The United States is perceived as being both a "strong ideological threat" as well as a "potential mili- tary threat" to these countries, the report states. "U.S. pro-status quo policies inter- fere with the radicals' political ambi- tions," while U.S. support for Israel is regarded by Arab radical states "as indicating U.S. strategy in the region." Coordinated strikes against American targets are "a result of shared ideology, common enemy and joint purpose." But direct coordination is "superfluous" since the terrorists are guided by their common ideology and methods of operation, the report states. Their activities, moreover, are not limited to terrorism. There exist "Multiple types" of anti-U.S. actions including "dislodging external stra- tegic assets [allies, bases, etc.], stretching U.S. forces thin, and direct targeting of overseas U.S. presence and interests!' The report outlines three areas in which radicals seek to subvert U.S. relations with the allies: ? Economic subversion, includes such disruptive efforts as mining the Sea to halt vital tanker traffic and seeking to subvert the Saudi oil industry and economy. ? Political subversion involves state-sponsored terrorism, for example, attacks by such groups as the PLO, Al-Jihad and the PFLP It also includes "supporting internal insurgencies" within countries friendly to the United States, such as the Philippines, Thailand and El Sal- vador. Conventional military pres- sure and psychological warfare also are included. ? Ideological subversion involves granting scholarships to people with the potential of supporting radical objectives; holding seminars (ideo- logical and religious); and propa- ganda (ideological and religious). In discussing efforts to stretch thin U.S. forces around the world, the report cites as a case history cooperative relations between Libya and North Korea. Starting with the U.S. shooting down of two Libyan Su-22 jetfighters over the Gulf of Sidra in 1981, North Korea and Libya began a concerted effort against US. interests. One week after the gulf incident, for instance, North Korea for the first time unsuccessfully attempted to shoot down a U.S. SR-71 recon- naisance aircraft with a surface-to- air missile. CilaLlOgg Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 . ARTICLE !inLUNIP ON PAGE ill ""11 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90- PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER 11 July 1985 01137R000100040001-4 U.S. study links Nicaragua with Libya, Iran and PLO By Alfonso Chardy hsquirer Washington Bureau :WASHINGTON ? Pressing its cam- paign against the 'Irconfederation of. terrorist states," fEelleagan adminis- !ration yesterday _privately circulat- ed a new State Department report accusing Nicaragua of developing strategic ties with IThya, Iran and the Palestine Liberation Organiza- tion. 7A? U.S. intelligence analzst who gave the report to the Inquirer Wash- ington gureau said it had been pre- pared for the National Security Council to "back up" President Rea- gan's assertions Monday that five na- tions ? Nicaragua,_ Cuba, Iran, Libya and North Korea ? were partici- pants in a "confederation of terrorist _states." In that speech. Reagan also listed the PLO as one of "the world's most vicious terrorist groups." Administration sources said that Reagan's speech and the document were part of a White House campaign to prepare the American public in Case Reagan decided to order mili- tary action to retaliate for recent -terrorist acts against Americans in .Lebanon and El Salvador. ? The document has not been re- leased formally because of objec- tions from the State Department's Middle East bureau, which felt it could undermine U.S. efforts to pro- mote a dialogue between Israel and a -Jordanian-Palestinian delegation, the sources said. The final draft of the report con- tains details of links between Nicara- gua and the PLO, Libya and Iran that in some cases date to several years before the Sandinistas came to power in an insurrection against President Anastasio Somoza in 1979. The report is intended to support the administration's contention that Nicaragua's ties to Middle East radi- cals pose a threat to the Western Hemisphere. "The Arab entities Nicaragua has chosen to deal with ... have had known involvement in terrorist ac- tivity, including the planning, train- ing, financing and ? implementation of terrorist acts," it said. "The Sandi- nista ties with this network pose in- creasing dangers of violence for the Western Hemisphere." Francisco Campbell, a minister- counselor at the Nicaraguan Em- bassy, said his nation "categorically rejects the affirmations published in this fabricated report." However, he did not deny the specific assertions in the document. ? "We believe that it is deplorable that the administration of the United States should try to !capitalize) on the genuine concern that is to be found among the people of the United States about terrorism," Campbell added.' According to the report, the Sandi- nistas' relations with Middle Eastern terrorists have yielded training by the PLO, arms and money from Libya and recent oil and possibly small- arms, shipments from Iran. The report says the Sandinistas' Arab connection was established in 1969 when PLO instructors trained Nicaraguans at camps in Lebanon and Libya. One of the trainees in Lebanon, it said, was Tomas Borge, who today is Nicaragua's interior minister. When the Sandinistas unleashed their final offensive against Somoza in 1978 and 1979, they obtained PLO assistance, through Sorge, to secure weapons from North Korea and Viet- nam and- funds from Libya, the re- port said. In July 1980, the report said. PLO leader Yasir Arafat paid a four-day "state visit" to Nicaragua and, at a reception in Managua, spoke of "stra- tegic and military ties" with the San- dinistas. Shortly after, the report said, Ara- fat sent a PLO officer, Col. Mutlag Hamadan, and 25 military advisers to Nicaragua "to give instruction in the use of Eastern-bloc weapons." The report said the Sandinistas so- lidified their ties to Libya in early 1979, when Libyan leader Moammar Khadafy invited the Nicaraguans to Eknghazi, Libya, and pledged money and political support. Borge played a key role in obtain- ing a MOO million loan from Libya in 1981, the report said. The Libyans have also shipped arms to Nicaragua, it added, citing the interception in Brazil in 1983 of four Libyan military planes carrying 84 tons of military equipment. Since then, the report said, Nicara- gua has become a member of a "San- dinista-PLO-Libya axis" and is devel- oping ties with Iran. According to the report. Nicara- gua's first official contact with Iran came in May 1983 when Sandinista minister of culture Ernesto Cardenal visited Tehran and was granted a rare private audience with the Aya- tollah Khomeini. In March 1984, Sandinista leader Sergio Ramirez traveled to Iran and secured a $23-milliOn trade agree- ment, the report said. And on Jan. 23, Iranian Prime Min- ister Hussein Moussavi visited Nica- ragua and met with Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega. "Most observ- ers agreed that shipment of small arms from Iran and an oil deal were discussed," the report said. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 ?,TpEtittovod Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137 ART!rt r ON ,49 WASHINGTON TIMES 2 July 1985 What we're not being co about terrorism is killing us With all the pap and pabulum about the moderation of Syria's President Hafez Assad and Lebanon's Minister of Justice Nabih Berri. the time has come to explain. in detail, what the intelligence com- munity, on both sides of the Atlantic. knows about state-sponsored terror- ism. FACT 1 ? Shi'ite terrorists, work- ing hand-in-glove with the Syrian and Iranian secret services, have struck U.S. targets 16 times since April 1983 ? from the kamikaze attack against the Marine compound that killed 241 to the kidnapping of seven Americans in Beirut who are still being held. It's what the special- ists call low-level, low-intensity, low- risk and high-payoff warfare. FACT 2 ? The latest hijacking was not the work of extremsts? working in isolation_ The Israeli Mossad, after many interrogations of Shi'ite p_risoners, knows that Nabih Berri himself was involved in the planning of eight hijackings and two car bombings_ FACT 3 ? The key supervisory role for Shi'ite extremists in Leba- non belongs to Col. Ghazi Kana'an, a Syrian intelligence operative who also functions as President Assad's pro-consul in a country Syria regards as its own. Col. Kana'an has worked closely with the KGB in Syria and in Lebanon_ French coun- terintelligence discovered in 1983 the existence of a terrorist training camp near Damascus that special- ized in car bombings and where the trainers were members of the Bul- garian DS. FACT 4 ? Col. Kana'an was in charge of the Hama massacre in February 1982 when 20.000 oppo- nents of the minority Assad dictator- ship were killed by Syrian special forces and the town virtually leveled. FACT 5? It was President Assad who originally authorized the instal- lation of Iranian terrorist squads in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. Mr. Assad has been profoundly impressed by the success of Lebanese Shi'ite sui- cide squads in forcing a hasty US_ withdrawal from Beirut in 1984 and in "breaking Israel's fighting spirit? EDITOR'S PERSPECTIVE by Arnaud de Borch rave ? as e as expressee himself in recent conversations with his brother Rifaat and his top intelli- gence aide, Gen. Mohammed al- Kholi. Electronic surveillance ? from the ground and from orbiting satellites ? does produce known results. FACT 6? President Assad, a mas- ter of deceit and hypocrisy, underwent-a dramatic psychological change in recent months. His is now inspired by the Islamic cult of Shahadah (martyrdom in a holy cause), which is characteristic of the Shi'ite extremist terrorists. This appeared to receive confirmation in an extraordinary speech he deliv- ered to the ninth Congress of the National Federation of Syrian Stu- dents on May 4. The key excerpts: "I have believed in the greatness of martyrdom and the importance of sacrifice since my youth. My feeling .and conviction was that the heavy burden on our people and nation ... could be removed and uprooted only through sacrifice and martyrdom. ... Early in my military life, I used to discuss with my colleagues the necessity for the state to form sui- cide squads from among the pilots. We used the word 'suicidals' and the well-known Japanese word kami- kaze. We used to say: 'fl'ue, every pilot is already a commando I fidall by virtue of his profession. Still, we must differentiate between the ordi- nary mission and the fida'i mission which requires the pilot to pounce on the enemy target and strike enemy ships, airports and other targets by turning himself, his plane and the bombs into one single fireball. Such attacks ... guarantee results in spreading terror among enemy ranks, raising people's morale, and enhancing citizens' awareness of the importance of martyrdom. Thus, waves of popular martyrdom will follow successively and the enemy will not be able to endure them." President Assad concluded his advocacy of state-sponsored terror- ism by saying that "My conviction of _.martrydom is neither incidental nor temporary. The years have entrenched this conviction. ... I hope that my life will end only in martyrdom." FACT 7 ? Mr. Assad, in person, with the asistance of Gen. Kholi, has supervised the training of handpick- ed kamikaze squads, including a group of fighter pilots who are -now in the final phase of their training ? and rehearsals ?at Minakh air base north of Aleppo, FACT 8 ? A recent analysis corn- on behrf of the CIA i titled '15o:wiling America ? A New Coordinated Radical Strategy." Pres- ident Assad has_rea bed agremeau with Iran and Libya for coordinated operations between the Syrian kami- kazes and two other similar squads: a Libyan-controlled group, based at Tobruk, including Iranian, Palestinian and Libyan pilots, and an Iranian squad at Bandar Abbas, at Elle _entrance to the Straits of Hop MUZ.. FACT 9 ? West European counter- terrorism operatives have discovered that Syrian-controlled networks arc now in place in Athens, Madrid, Lille and Marseilles. Iranian terrorists, disguised as mul- lahs, have used French mosques as safehouses. FACT 10 ? Mr. Assad's control- lers for terrorist operatons include Sabah Noun, who helped coordinate the Shi'ite campaign against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, and who has now been given overall charge of operations against Israel and Jor- dan; Issam Kansuq.. a Syrian intel- ligence officer; and Hossein Mansouri, the Iranian who com- manded the Ayatollah Khomeini's Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon until six months ago. These are the agents who have been made respon- sible for liaison between Damascus and networks in West Europe and the Gull FACT II ? President Assad is convinced that he has a personal mission to harness Arab radicalism to trans fundamentalist fury in Continued Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDF'90-01137R000100040001-4 !ifITIPI.V1413PEA -3 - pr-c7arlior Release 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-01 WASHINGTON TIMES 28 June 1985 ,r1/??? NitIRNING gmv Hi_ ILI 41[4::IIN IlL New report: An analysis recently com- pleted on behalf of the CIA is titled: "Expelling America ? A New Coordinated Radical Strategy." Defector flap Students of the Soviet chsinfor- mation effort never fail to be amazed by the frequency with which Western volunteers come forth to besmirch the reputations of Soviet enemies, Defectors are under particular pressure to prove their bona fides. There have been a number of "quality" defectors in recent years who have caused their former mas- ters so much acute embar- rassment and harm by their public revelations it is unlikely that they have secret loyalties to the Soviet system. One is Arkady Shevchenko, former under secre- tary general of the United Nations and the highest ranking Soviet diplomat to defect to the West. Now comes journalist- author Edward Jay Epstein to add Mr. Shevchenko to the Nosenko, Golitsyn, et al contro- versies of the 1960s and early 1970s. The Epstein technique is remi- niscent of the new "McCar- thyism" we have been seeing in the U.S. Senate, where the credi- bility of presidential nominees who have been serving their country with distinction are attacked on the basis of a memory lapse regarding some event many months or even years ago. So what? Who can remem- ber precise details of routine events of last month, let alone five years ago? In Mr. Shevchen- ko's case, Mr. Epstein has set forth mercilessly with forceps and scalpel to slice up not sworn testimony, but Mr Shevchenko's autobiography. Mr. Epstein has shown an odd sense of timing. His attack has appeared only a month after the Senate Intelligence Committee issued a report on Soviet use of the United Nations Secretariat for espionage purposes. Mr. Shevchenko has been discussing his personal experiences of Soviet abuse of the U.N. for intel- ligence purposes in interviews and in his best-selling book, Breaking With Moscow. He also tells the story of how he, a privileged member of the Soviet elite, became disgusted and dis- enchanted with the Soviet sys- tem. ? Washington's intelligence community wants to know who prompted Mr. Epstein to this dis- service. Some believe it originated with embittered, Byzantine old enemies of former CIA director Adm. Stansfield Thrner, on whose watch Mr. Shevchenko chose to find free- dom. The CIA's routine "no com- ment" rule was broken /yesterday: "Shevchenko pro- vided invaluable intelligence information to the U.S. govern- ment," said the CIA spokesman. "The CIA had nothing to do with writing his book" ? as Mr. Epstein charged. 137R000100040001-4 Advance man Correspondent Stephanie Nall files this from the White House: President Reagan has named James L. Hooley as one of his special assistants and director of his advance team. Mr. Hooley, 32, has worked for President Reagan, either at the White House or on a campaign staff, since 1978, when he became a consultant on the 1980 election. Since November 1983, he has been deputy director of pres- idential advance. That office plans the president's trips. And: President Reagan has chosen Charles A. 'Trabandt to be a mem- ber of the Federal Energy Reg- ulatory Commission. If _? confirmed by the Senate, he would succeed Georgiana H. Sheldon, a Republican who has served in the post for two terms. Mr. Thibandt, 44, formerly servecrin the CIA and as chiei counsel on the Senate Committee on Energy and Naturt Resources. He now is counselor to theat the Interior Department and is a 1963 graduate of the U.S. Naval Acad- emy. ? John Elvin Staff writer Jim Clardy contri- buted to this column. Approved For Release 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 R000100040001-4 It's not all fun and games. Tnere are various instructions for crippling com- munications by cutting the cables on alarm systems and ripping down tele- phone lines with homemade gaffs. A rich variety of techniques is described for lousing up the transportation sys- tem:. disabling truck, engines, slashing tires, breaking windshields and head- lights, and cutting down trees and pil- ing rocks to block highways. By placing a cigarette between two open matchboxes and tying them all together: you have an instant instru- ment-for arson that gives you up to 10 minutes getaway time after lighting the cigarette. One panel encouraging anti-Sanclinist - graffiti might please the Vatican. It por- trays a citizen painting "Viva El Papa" on a wall, but the next panel shows peo- ple throwing bricks at police station win- dows, shooting out street lamps with a slingshot and bashing stoplights with a club. Finally we get instructions for making a "Molotov cocktail'. with old bottles and a wick; adding shredded soap or sawdust to the fuel (gasoline or kerosene) is recommended for better results. Among the suggested targets are police stations. Now you might say that, at worst, this is not quite on the level of the CIA's recruiting and supplying guer- rilla forces or mining Nicaraguan ports. But that's not the point. Leav- ing methods aside, the objective is quite explicitly "the final battle against the usurpers." If that's the language of a manual the contras are getting from their CIA' handlers, that's presumably the impression the con- tras have of the U.S. objective in Nica- ragua. The impression Nicaraguan peasants are getting is that "these measures are extremely safe and with- out risk" and that the "essential eco- nomic infrastructure . . . can easily be , disabled and even paralyzed." So what's happening is that the - United States, at second hand, is en- couraging Nicaraguans to rise up (a) with the real prospect of easy success and (b) with the clear understanding that the United States is going to be with them all the way. Since neither is the case (witness the House refusal to vote more money for the "covert" CIA activities in Nicaragua), there is not only a certain reckless irresponsibility about this operation but some problem reconcil- ing it with the Reagan administration's high-principled outrage over economic warfare when practiced by Salvadoran rebels. Those are the reasons why the "Freedom Fighter's Manual" is less of a comic book and more of a metaphor ,Ae 7'7: ? 1_7,77,ARED 7 _ s pi4"4?11-697;,,- --WASHINGTON POST TtMeasel2DONIQW24 :1096P4-RDP90-0113i . . . And CIA Comics If you like comics, you are going to love a new development in the Reagan administration's holy war against the Soviet outpost of evil in Nicaragua. I say "holy" only because Ronald Reagan has lately claimed the support of Pope John Paul II for his Nicaraguan policy. Actually, it's by no means sure that His Holiness would bless each of the several dozen different ways that the CIA;supported Nicaraguan coun- terrevolutionaries (contras) are trying to mobilize the Nicaraguan populace to "participate in the final battle against the usurpers of the authentic Sandin- ista revolution." The quotation is from a "Freedom Fighter's Manual" that the contras are apparently circulating among the Nicaraguan citizenry. A peasant found it stuffed in his mail slot and passed it along to a representative of an Amer- ican religious group, who forwarded it to a Washington organization that is not in sympathy with U.S. policy in Central America. A contra leader and U.S. intelligence sources have authen- ticated the manual and independently confirmed the CIA connection. Done up crudely in the format of a color-comic section, it would be a lot funnier if its contents weren't so squarely at odds with the administra- tion's rationale for its "secret" sup- port of the contras: to interdict the flow of arms and supplies from Nicara- gua to leftist insurrectionists in El Sal- vador, The 16-page manual is billed as a "practical guide to liberate Nicara- gua from oppression and misery by paralyzing the military-industrial com- plex of the traitorist-Marxist state without having to use special tools and with minimal risk for the combatant." How? You start with the little things like being late to work, calling in sick, leaving lights on and faucets running, neglecting maintenance work on ve- hicles and machinery, throwing tools down sewers, booking phony hotel reservations and leaving the gates open on state cattle farms. Moving right along you put dirt or water in gasoline tanks, spill coffee on official documents, sprinkle nails on highways and plug toilets with sponges. When Ronald Reagan pro- claimed at one of his press confer- ences that while he was not out to overthrow the Sandinistas he surely intended to "inconvenience them," he was not just whistling "Hail to the Chief." Enough of this sort of stuff could drive anybody?even the most sturdy and stoic Marxist-Leninist? around the bend. Approved For Release 2002/06/24 : fliASRIN/961-6145ailkt66100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 P90401137 quiviADI ZVENTS 15 MARCH 1975 D;t1 U FolReifelase 2062/06/24/o: CIA 31' ? rCit10:11 it135531111 z'Dy. By VICTOR RIESEL Some Central Intelligence Agency cials expect an outcry .to whirlwind p against CIA industrial espionage in endiy as well as "detente" nations. ..ere will be a flurry of action inside orne intelligence "stations." "Spooks" _ k.;risof Ti. 20-year espionage sentence given USSR spy lvanov was apparently wiped off the books by the State Department. TA be sent packing. "Covers" will be lown. And the U.S. industrial-military crnplex will be limping in a strategic eld wherein it should be the swiftest. As one source, intimately familiar ith intelligence gathering, ruefully put recently?it will cost us millions of ollars to obtain the kind of secrets in ne USSR which any Soviet agent can ick up for a dollar on any American ewsstand selling technical magazines. Further, said he and he sure does know. the U.S. is being inundated by Scolet KGB agents. They come in on Soviet vessels which ow berth in 40 American ports. Of curSe, they come in among the thou- ars of commercial, cultural and scien- .:=Lc exchange commissions. Sometimes e U.S. even dispatches federal special- to Russia, as was the case with the a:trnent of Commerce. to explain azies of technical government Furthermore, in order not to irritate the Russians and depress them during detente. we always play 'the gentlemen. For example, last December 16 the very polished and elusive Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs John A. Armitage flew into Newark, N.J.?hardly a destination, usually, for so distinguishedra diplomat. Mr. Armit- age then went directly to the federal building. He met U.S. Attorney for New Jersey Jonathan Goldstein. Then they went into federal court and asked the judge to put aside the 20- year espionage sentence of one Igor Ivanov. This is strange, since the last report had it that Mr. Ivanov was in Moscow supposedly driving a taxi, hardly an affair of state. So there's need for a flashback. On Oct. 29, 1963, Ivanov, then a chauffeur for the Soviet's Amtorg Trading Corp., was arrested along with two other Rus- sians. The FBI later proved to the courts that they had been obtaining classified secrets on Strategic Air Command com- puterized communications and counter- strike operations. Two of the Russians had diplomatic immunity. They had been assigned to the United Nations. They re- turned to the USSR. But Ivanov, as a chauffeur for the trading corporation; was just an alien spy. So to prison he went. Then he sought release. The Russians sent word they'd truly appreciate his being permitted to leave prison and return to Moscow while on appeal. If his appeal were rejected by a higher court, why then, Ivanov simply would return voluntarily to prison. That was in 1971. But on Dec. 16, 1974, the State De- partment, in the person of Mr. Armit- age, and the Justice Department, in the person of John Goldstein (brooding all the way), asked the federal judge in New Jersey to set the whole thing aside. Why? All in the interests of detente, that's why. Mr. Goldstein is more tight-lipped than a frozen clam. Ask Mr. Armitage what it's all about, he muttered as graciously as he could for a man who had been pressured by superiors into doing what he obviously found distasteful. Seven times I tried to ask Mr. Armit- age. He did not return the call. And Igor Ivanov did not return to the U.S. His sentence was simply I.viped out. Yet ions. One such Commerce expert Ivanov is one of the Soviets' most Moscow recently to reportAISIPIVATIOrFRA Ricii914PftraQ0Ma4 : ciAIRDP90-01137R000100040001-4 r,? R000100040001-4 There is evidence that fvanOv's arrest in 1963 desperately upset the KGB when it learned of the capture by the FBI from a cable sent to Moscow by the KGB "rap" or resident officer. Boris Ivanov. At least two former American ambas- sadors to Moscow can attest to this. The electronic and photographic equipment discovered in Igor Ivanov's living quarters proved he was deep in industrial as well as military espionage. The secret computer system was an ITT development. Question therefore is. why should the State Department?and on whose orders?do this falor for the Russians? Certainly the So jets don't exactly quiter over ing to break their rsord. I?anow simply could ha%e gone underground in Moscow. But if the threat of an- other 13 years in American prison is rernmed. Igor may return in some new guise in some new trade mis- sion. The Soviet agents are all over us. For example, when Khrushchev ran Moscow for the party during the most brutal of Stalinist purges (see his book. Khrushchev Remembers) one of his favorite aides was a chap by name of Potalechev (spelled phonetically). The latter was a tough purger. Yet up he turned as head of the Soviet foreign trade trust with whom scores of our top industrialists have conferred. And there is the former Soviet secret police (KGB) chief Alexandr Shelepin. It has been charted that the KGB (all the way back to the Cheka days) was a killer, machine. Yet now Shelepin is Chairman of the Soviets' so-called labor federation con ferrin with national union leaders in Germany and with labor visitors from many lands. Just two examples.' They could be geometrically multi- plied by the thousands. True, some are being monitored by the CIA and the FBI. So is some of the industrial equip- ment the Soviets are purchasing. But under today's circumstances, our industrial counterespionage will be circumspect. Our spooks. domestic and international. might as well come in out of the cold. No sense being beastly about it. The Soviets might resent our intelligence people getting in their statistical services. v.'hat like the late British-born Rudolf lvanovich Abel. ? ? - Approved For Release 2002/06/24 : CI-A-RDP90-0113 ARTICtrArnatR. __011 WASFZENC',TOIC POST 6 APR= 1983 Donald F. B. Jameson R000100040001-4 VC CIA Petroleum Prophecy One hears a lot about profits and pe- troleum when times are _good land very little about icses when times are had), but almost nothing about prophets in the petroleum business once their big splash in the press has passed. One of _the mmtirensationajforecaSts - was -a CIA study six years:agraitnelassi- fied and entitled "The Anteinational :- Energ Situation: _OutloOk to :1985." Notable at the time for its-astir-hate that the Soviet Union would soon become a net importer of oil,. it cauSecLi stir bY pre- dicting that by 1985 the -Soviet bloc would "require a minimum- of s3.5 million barrels of imported oil" every day. Today Soviet production is over 400,000 barrels a day higher than the highest level the CIA foresaw. The Soviets are dumping well over a million barrels a day.atcheap - prices on the international market -- The Soviet story grabbed - headlines and drew attention away from the rest of the conclusions the CIA had arrived at in - its forecast These are the ones that really make interesting reading now. For in- stance, "We timate the 1980 demand for OPEC oil will be about 34 million barrels a day, 2 million barrels a day more than in 1977." In 1980, OPEC pro- duced an average of about 27 million bar- rels a day, making the CIA estimate off by 7 million barrels, or over 20 percent. For later years, reality and forecast spread much farther apart. OPEC produced about 22.6 million barrels a day on the average in 1981 and 184 million in 1982. Current production is about 13 million barrels a day, although the year's average may approach 18 mil- lion if the world economy picks up a lot_ OPEC's current rate of .production is low, to be sure, but there it is_ CIA's 1977 esti- mate of 1983 production, interpolating from its projections for 1980 and 198.5, would have been over 40 million barrels a day, three times greater than what is ac- tually the case. Although it will rise later this year, OPEC's average production will certainly be. much less thari half of the rate the agency foresaw. It expected Saudi Arabia, for instance, would be producing about 12 million bar- rels a day in 1982 and 'from 19 to 23" million barrels a day in 1985. Instead of 14 million barrels a day, .which is where .the CIA forecast would put current prod- uction, Saudi Arabia today is- pumping . -less than 4 million and. may_reduce that -In its elf-xsirie,oaragraphs?the.1977 report -says, 'By 1982 or 1983,1:4-liable price in, -creases ,are inevitabler*leas ?14e-scale -,conservation measures -:.-oatt idemand sharply!An the real worldoniicesnut de- mand. not?corrservatkin,------- ? The CIA's 1977 crystal ball foresaw Free .World demand rising to -about 55 million -barrels a day in 1980 and growing to abo*fi0 million in 1985. In fact, free world 4rnand in I980 was about 45 mil- lion. almost.20 percent-less. Now demand is somewhere over 40 million, say 43 mil- , lion. That makes its estimate of today's -tier-maid off by about one-third. In 1979 the CIA -put out another, longer study on the -same subject It noted the escalating prices of the time, but still came out with a prediction of 30 million barrels a day as OPEC's likely production rate for 1982. Instead of 1(K) percent error, it came down to 40. World- ? wide demand was also overestimated by about one-third. It recognized that the price rise it had ? foreseen in 1977 for the early 1980s was taking place in 1979, but-the full influ- ence of prices on consumption was missed. One shouldn't blame the CIA alone for this failure. Industry made much the same mistake. Exxon, for ex- ample, bet billions that high prices and oil shortages would make a project to ex- tract oil from shale rocks viable. It was as wrong as the government The point is not to hold hard-working analysts up to ridicule, but to ask why they-went wrong. It seems to me in retro- spect that the CIA basically failed to ask itself how we were going to pay for all that oil at those prices. If you had looked at the problem, you might have seen that something had to give. ? 'What gave -was oil consumption. We suddenly became much more efficient in the use of oil after the 1979 price...rise, '4: The trend of smaller increments of oil '-consumption per unit increase in that had started in the late '60s suddenly !took off in 1979. In that year the United F.States consumed an: 18.5 -mil- ?barrels a day? of oil products consumed About 15.2 million, -an -percent drop. The GNP was -about the for both years. ? What the analysts missed were the -people.adding more insulation to houses, 'Amy* fewer and -smaller cars and keep- - ing thermostats lower, and industry's cut- ting energy use drastically. That explains in part. why the estimates were wrong. There were other factors, among them one worth mentioning. President Carter, I think, wanted the country to suffer for its wanton, wasteful practices. He felt we would all be better for having learned a lesson. The apocalypse thew reports fore- saw was the exhaustion of oil resources before we had prepared alternatives- This is a problem, to he sure, .hut it seemed to me at the tune that Carter rel- ished the contemplation of this particular form of judgment day. The reports that foresaw that day fast approaching were just what he wanted--and just what the CIA gave him. There are some lessons to he learned from this sorry record, I believe. Perhaps the most important is that our infOrma- tion can be inadequate even on vital topics and the successful economy is the one that can stay flexible, capable of adaptation to whatever happens. The -writer, an oil consultant, -retired front the CIA in 1973. Approved For Release 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 roved FouRtitlejaym2gr '../24: CIA-RDP90-01137 '4 LL-.- 28 October 1984 The Troubling Econ of Oil By DOUGLAS MARTIN UWA1T1 sheiks, Saudi princes and Nigerian bu- reaucrats live mainly on hope-these days ? the hope that oil production will fall every- where but in the Organization of Petroleum Export- ing Countries. And in fact there is substantial evi- dence that this is slowly happening. , Their hope also is that the rate of energy conserva- tion will. slow In the industrial nations and that the substitution of coal, nuclear power and natural gas for oil will reach its limits ? and these trends are al- ready evident. Their ultimate hope, of course, is that prices will rise. Simply put, these hopes and dreams are OPEC's strategy. The 13 OPEC members hold most of the world's oil reserves; theirs is by far the cheapest to produce, and they are biding their time until the non- OPEC countries run out of crude, putting OPEC once again in the driver's seat. But while they wait, ample supplies are available elsewhere and that will be the case "until the early 1990's," says James Schlesinger, former Secretary of Energy. Adds John H. Lichtblau, president of the Petroleum Industry 'Research Foundation: "All the pressure on oil prices is down in this decade." That downward pressure was dramatically evident earlier this month when Norway, then Britain and fi- nally Nigeria cut the prices of their high-grade crudes by as much as $2 a barrel, and oil company stocks plunged for a few days as fear spread that the drop would have no bottom. By far the biggest blow to OPEC was the action of Nigeria, one of its own. "For all practical purposes, Nigeria has left OPEC," says Stephen A. Smith, a senior vice president of Data Resources Inc. The OPEC oil ministers are meeting tomorrow in an emergency session in Geneva to keep the initial price cuts from sparking a pell-mell downward price spiral. They are likely to be successful this time, even though the Mobil Corporation last week took the extremely unusual step of -lowering its domestic oil prices on the eve of an OPEC meeting. EVERTHELESS, there is a lingering concern that someday later this decade, perhaps even next year, oil prices might suddenly unravel, plummeting downward in uncontrolled fashion. If that were to happen, the world would experience an oil shock as severe in its economic impact as the two it suffered when prices rocketed upwards in the 1970's. "It would kill off Mexico ? a major non-OPEC pro- ducer?along with some banks down in Texas," says a former high government official. ther national and regional economies would be virtually flattened, oil companies would give up most of their drilling as unprofitable and scores of banks with huge loan port- folios tied to energy would face the prospect of fail- ure. A Not the least of the casualties would be' OPEC, which is hardly eager to lose huge chunks of income while it awaits the turnaround in the 1990's. Indeed, in the new economics of oil, the United States and the OPEC nations are beginning to share the common goal of a stable, relatively high oil price, although they part company on details. The ,United States would applaud a moderate decline in prices,; the OPEC nations would resist even that. "A precipitate fall in oil prices by a substantial amount, to say $15-to-$20 a barrel, could have an irn- , mediate impact on many countries," said Walter J. Levy, an energy analyst. "Major banks would be very wort ed. It would effect Britain disastrously. And oil states such as Texas and California would be severely harmed." But if an unraveling of prices is to be avoided, there are also powerful arguments in favor of a moderate ' decline in oil price ? one that might eventually settle at about $24 a barrel, or $5 below the current bench- mark price of $29 a barrel that OPEC is trying to pre- Serve. Already, economists are talking about the beneficial results of the last OPEC price cut, in the spring of 1983, when similar pressures from Nigeria and Britain prompted OPEC to cut its crude prices by $5 a barrel. a That 1983 price cut helped to push down the infla- tion rate in the United States and, in the opinion of many economists, may have been as much a reason for the current economic recovery as President Rea- gan's tax cuts. It "added $22 billion to the spendable income of Americans, an increase roughly equiva- lent to the first two rounds of the Reagan tax cuts combined," said Daniel Yergin, president of Cam- bridge Energy Research Associates. "The cut strengthened what looked to be a fragile recovery," he said. And he added that with the economic re- covery once again showing signs of petering out, the Reagan Administration would probably like to see OPEC give in this week to a $2-a-barrel price cut. a INDEED,Data Resources Inc. is already calculat- ing the effect on the American economy if OPEC somehow agreed to a $5-a-barrel price cut before the end of this year. The forecasting firm said that The Consumer Price Index would drop by half a per- centage point in' each of the next three years and so would general interest rates. There would be an equivalent rise in the Gross National Product and auto production would rise by 700,000 vehicles ? about 10 percent of current annual production ? over- the entire three years. Airlines, truckers, fast-food merchandisers and land developers also would profit from less expensive energy. Other benefits would be so indirect that ana- lysts would spend months figuring them out. For in- stance, aluminum makers, although they do not use petroleum in production processes, gain because commercial airline manufacturers ? heavy users of the metal ? would do brisker business with cheaper oil. Continued Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Even the losers --7 oil companies; coal producers, some coal-carrying railroads and banks with big loans to drillers or third world countries ? would not - suffer too much. front?a itiederate price decline, in the opinion of many economists. "A $1 or $2 cut can be handled," Mr. Levy said. And the chief economist of a major oil company says that "a modest price re- duction contributes to a stronger general economic ? performance." Ironically, the Federal Government Might be hurt the most by a moderate price decline. Washington absorbs up to 80 cents of the first $4 reduction in the price of every barrel of oil, because of its_ windfall profits tax. Britain and Norway have the same prob- lem, making their recent price reductions bitter medicine. _ It is no wonder then that this week's OPEC meeting assumes something of the character of a sporting event with fans rooting for opposing sides ? the start of a moderate price slide vs. the status quo. But that is probably a distorted view of the larger reality. What is going on is a complex betting game, with multifarious players and interests clashing against the changing facts of geology, economics and demog- raphy. Here is OPEC's problem: Companies and coun- tries do not like tying their purchases to a group that would truly love to be the tight cartel it has never --- quite succeeded in being. So they buy oil from non- OPEC producers first. As a result, OPEC has seen its share of world oil output plummet to t2 percent in 1983 from 54 percent in , 1973. This is the consequence of two things: First, non-OPEC output from the North Sea, Mexrco and elsewhere . has soared. Second, consumption in ihe face of high oil prices fell iii 1983 to fits lowest point in 12 years, with ap- proximately 35 percent of that reduc-? 'ion being attributed to conservation. Partly as a result, nearly one-third of the world's refining capacity is not being used. _ . All this is already common knowl- idge in the new economics of oil. What Is just emerging as equally important involves the kinds of oil now being produced and purchased. The oil in- dustry has invested huge amounts of inoney ? $18.2 billion in 1982 alone ? 'to build or renovate refineries to pro- s e.-s heavier, viscous petroleum that pPEC and other producers sell more cheaply than their benchmark brand, arab light crude. The thick stuff has : traditionally been used as the fuel burned by utilities and industry, and teow it is being used to make gasoline, aviation and other products once 7 kroduced almost exclusively . from rilgher-quality light oil. s HE upshot is that producers of wr ; the once-prized lighter crudes ? ? , Britain, -Norway and Nigeria -.? are having trouble peddling their "pares and are taking the logical step iof shaving prices. ? . International banks, although tlearly nervous, see some blessings in : ._ this situation. They have billions in loans outstanding to Mexico and Vene- zuela, two major non-OPEC oil pro- ducers, and they might welcome a re- - duction in the price of light oil, if it strengthened the price of the heavy crude these financially troubled na- tions pump. 1 But from OPEC's perspective, Ni- geria's willingness to act unilaterally, ' as it did this month, is a troublesome chink in the armor of OPEC strategy. That country's financial woes were enough to topple a government re- cently and OPEC allows Nigeria to produce just 70 percent of what it is capable of pumping. Meanwhile, Mex- ico, not an OPEC member but cer- tainly financially strained, pumps merrily along at a 90 percent clip. The wages of OPEC fidelity at a time of shrinising_energy demand are crystal clear: Its members saw their export earnings rumble front $267.7 billion in 1980 to $149 billion in 1983, with a fur- ther reduction expected this year. A waiting game is the result. tur- rently, decreases in the use of "sta- tionary" oil ? that is, oil used for heating and power, but not in -trans- portation ? is more than offsetting slight gains in the transportation sec- tor. But at some point, all the large- scale substitutions of coal, nuclear power, and natural gas for "station- ary" oil uses will be mostly complet- ed. Then, the upward movement in transportation demand is expected to continue and to become dominant. OPEC's expectation is that this turn- ing point will come within a decade. ? Similarly, OPEC looks forward to ? the day that Alaskan and North Sea production begins a steep _decline, an event that is likely to occur by the end of the decade. They could only rejoice that such promising prospects as So- hio's Mukluk property in the Beaufort Sea and Exxon's Destin Anticline in. the Gulf of Mexico turned out to be dry, and that expensive technologies ? maybe reaching their limits in wring- ing black' gold from existing fields. ? M OREOVER, such insurance policies as synthetic fuels have become almost fading memories, while inventory levels ' have become much, much tighter -- ? riot because the oil glut has abated but , because companies don't want to fi- nance these inventories at high inter- ? ? est rates and are confident that oil is ? readily available. It is also the case that OPEC is, in a sense, reluctantly ' banking its oil, with a production level ' of only 17.5 million barrels a day ? . just over half the amount of a decade ago ? while the rest of the world pro- duces all out. But, to most analysts, that hardly seems enough to make OPEC influen- tial in the current situation. In today's world, the new wisdom is that oil reve- nue in the bank is worth more than a depreciating asset in the ground, a re- versal of the thinking of OPEC's -founders. What helps to make oil in the ground less valuable is that worldwide re- serves have risen in comparison to production, a surprisingly favorable trend. In fact, this year's oil produc- tion about 44 million barrels in the non-Communist world ? Would be ? even weaker were it not for the excep- ? tionally cold weather last winter and the long British coal strike. ? But perhaps the most important fac- tor working against OPEC's ' long- ? ; term strategy is that seems likely never to need as much oil as most people once thought it would. A major oil company as recently as the ? mid-1970's was positing that demand for OPEC oil in 1985 would be as much as 50 million barrels daily. Instead, it is slightly over 17.5 million. The lack of demand for Saudi Ara- bia's oil is more dramatic still. The predictions were that the world would be guzzling some 20 million barrels a day of Saudi crude by now, and Amer- ican policymakers less than a decade ago were making nervous trips to _the desert kingdom to urge the royal family to quickly increase its produc- tion capability to handle this demand. Instead,- the Saudis, although still OPEC's biggest producers, have tightened the faucet to 4.5 million bar- rels daily, and might go as low as 3 million barrels as a result of tomor- row's meeting. That's roughly 25 per- cent of capacity. A major reason for the decline in de- mand is the gains that have been made in conservation and energy effi- Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For R 4: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 ciency. And these gains will not likely be lost, mostly because these gains are largely the result of technology not the behavior of people. For in- stance, although Americans are using slightly more gasoline this year than last year ? partly because it is cheaper ? the automobile companies are adopting such technologies as an automatic transmission that is as fuel- efficient as manual shift. Already a big car like the Buick Electra gets 17 miles a gallon ,in city driving, com- pared with the 9 or 10 miles that simi- iar models got in the mid-1970's. Roger Sant, a former top energy of- ficial in the Ford Administration and now head of a company selling energy-efficiency equipment to indus- try, said this process would continue as long as the price of oil remains above $15 a barrel. Moreover-, the very structure of the , _ market has become so competitive ' that a return to OPEC price-setting power might be-difficult. Flexibility,? _ not the security of a guaranteed source of supply, is what -concerns buyers. Today, contracts are written for a maximum of three months, ' rather than five years as formerly. As much as half the oil in the world is probably traded on a spot basis, rather than _through the traditional contract purchases. That's up from 5 - to 10 percent at the beginning of the decade. Indicative of the change has been _ the tremendous growth in the trading of crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The-pe con- tracts, representing a promile to de- liver a fixed amount of oil? at an agreed-upon price at a fixed date in the future, are even more sensitive to? price change than the spot market and therefore have become a major vehi- cle for oil purchases. Since the new contracts began to be offered in March 1983; daily volumes have grown beyond the amount of crude produced in the United States in a day. - "When the market speaks, OPEC now listens," Mr. Yergin said. F U. ,Years of remaining oil reservee ? (Expressed as a ratio of proven Teservevolurne to production . atyearond) Oil export earnings In _ ?.;- billions of U.S. dallers ? _ ? r ? _ OPEC CENTRALIN- 'REST . PLANNED OF THE ECONOMIES WORLD- - -1977 - urcekinternatlonglEneniygtetletIcal . Review, C1.47Petroleum Industry ThReeeerGn Foundation, N. V.; 1983 .-' British Petroleum /Itelle.w of World energy" , - Approved For Release 2002/06 -RDPN-i8ng'1R000100040001-4 3. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 A nTICLE APPEARED Approved For Release W32146/ZZIR:IC1ANRDP90-01137 ell PAGE /3 Seel, 20 May 1983 R000100040001-4 International Report Briefs Agencies disagree on debt 'e t `1: A GOVERNMENT STUDY of the foreign dejati crisis apparently has concluded that the ,problem will be solved by economic recovery amongethed , major industrial nations. This finding is likely tfej play a critical role in -determining the Amerigilll negotiating position at the seven-nation econolJAP.-1 f, summit -conference to be held at -Williamsbin, ;Va., later this month. It would argue, for exam.*);./ against major new initiatives to deal with the ;problem. However, there are strong dissents -4o z this optimistic view from the Central Inte1ligesFq2 - Agency and the staff of the National Secuptyrj Council. Both agencies are said to be quite -copT :corned about the ability of developing erountries.toq keep up with their debt repayment. According, to ? one account, these agencies argue that the prOb-., -lem could- become unmanageable in 12 -to'18, months, even with fairly strong economic recbV..2:4 ery. Developing nations owe roughly $600 billion to-) governments and commercial banks. Much of Allis debt is being renegotiated because it cannot 4"?..64 paid on time. Widespread defaults could ,underel mine the stability of many of the world's largest; banks. - New York Times News Sert4o- Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 ?5X1A 25X1A 25X1A 25X1A 25X1A Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90;- Lector Public Affairs office Central Intelligence Agency Washington, DC 20505 The new map of Jordan is beautiful! Its colors are attractive. What makes it especially lovely is its dramatic improvement in accuracy over the preceding summary map of Jordan and over many of the maps of the Middle East still in circulation. The new map should inspire correction of other new official maps which embrace Jordan and also the correction of erroneous maps in the media, in encyclopedias, atlases, textbooks, and other reference works. The accurate maps and text in the annual CIA_WORLD_FACTBOOK have already been useful in the work of endeavoring to supplant the general misinformation about the status of the area in question. I am confident the accurate maps and texts on Jordan in future editions will also help in this work. Many thanks for your gracious letter of July 28 and for the copy of the map. I am grateful to you for both. Many thanks, too, for your significant contribution to the issuance of the new map. I am writing to Robert M. Gates to thank him for bringing us together a year ago January 2. Enclosed is a copy of my letter. May I also note that you are ably represented by She is both competent and personable. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Wee 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-01' u PRESS INTERNATIONAL 19 August 1985 A SOBERING TRIP THROUGH THE FEDERAL BUREAUCRACY By JIM ANDERSON WASHINGTON By chance, Martin Miller discovered in 1981 that there was a big mistake in government publications about who legally owns the West Bank, occupied by Israel since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. 37R000100040001-4 The discovery led him on a four-year odyssey through the snail-like workings of the federal bureacracy that left Miller a lot more cynical about the government he once worked for. Miller, a retired Treasury Department employee, found U.S. publications gave ownership of the 2,200-square-mile area to Jordan. But Jordan's 1950 annexation of the West Bank is not recognized by any government except Britain and Pakistan, and in 1974 even Jordan gave up its claim to the area. The United States considers the area occupied territory, with ownership to be determined by negotiation, but the area still is shown on U.S. maps to be an occupied part of Jordan. Miller, filled with confidence in the essential goodness of the U.S. government, pointed out the cartographic mistake in a polite letter. The State Departmet geographer responded, saying the department would tell all government publications that the West Bank is not under the sovereignty of any Middle East country -- including Jordan. In 1983, the State Department announced that the mistaken map would be changed in the next edition of the "World Factbook," which is published by the CIA under the policy direction of the State Department. The map was corrected, but the accompanying text was still wrong, giving back to Jordan what the map took away. The matter was brought up at the State Department press briefing and spokesman John Hughes, whose office is in charge of the subject, promised something would be done. Nothing was. Miller then called in one of his big IOUs, a casual friendship with George Shultz. Miller saw Shultz in April 1984 and explained his story. The secretary of state promised quick action. Another year passed. Miller, carrying a briefcase full of letters, maps, books and promises, went from the CIA to Capitol Hill and back to the State Department. At the CIA, spokeswoman Patti you told him the agency has no intention of "revising, replacing or changing maps of Jordan published by the U.S. WALMent at this point in time." Miller wondered aloud if the rest of CIA intelligence is as accurate as its maps of the Middle East. Continued Approved For Release 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved ForReletipNANdt 9 ErP1-41511441666,1 A SOBERING TRIP THROUGH THE FEDERAL BUREAUCRACY BY JIM ANDERSON WASHINGTON In 1981, Martin Miller discovered by chance that there is a serious mistake in U.S. government publications about the legal ownership of the West Bank, occupied since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war by Israel. The discovery led him on a four-year odyssey through the snail-like workings Of the federal bureacracy that left Miller a lot more cynical about the government he used to work for. Miller, a retired Treasury Department employee, found U.S. publications gave ownership of the 2,200-mile-square area to Jordan, but Jordan's 1950 annexation of the West Bank is not recognized by any government except Britain and Pakistan. In 1974, even Jordan gave up its own claim to the area at the Rabat conference. 37R000100040001-4 The United States considers the area to be occupied territory, the ownership to be determined by negotiation, but the U.S. maps don't reflect this. The area is shown on U.S. maps to be an occupied part of Jordan, something that even Jordan does not now claim. Miller, filled with confidence in the essential goodness of the U.S. government, pointed out the cartographic mistake in a polite letter and even had it brought up in public at the State Department daily press briefing. Miller received a letter from the State Department geographer saying the department would tell all government publications that the West Bank 15 not under the sovereignty of any Middle East country (including Jordan). Two years later, Miller trudged from the State Department to Capitol Hill to the Central Intelligence -Agency. The State Department announced that the mistaken map would be changed in the next edition of the "World Factbook,11 which is published by the CIA, under the policy direction of the State Department. The map was corrected, but the accompanying text was still wrong, giving back to Jordan what the map took away. The matter was brought up at the State Department Press briefing, and spokesman John Hughes, whose Public Affairs branch is in charge of the subject, promised that something would be done. In fact, nothing was done. Miller then called in one of his big IOUs, a casual friendship with George Shultz, now secretary of state, but head of the Treasury when Miller was pushing defense bonds. Shultz agreed to see Miller, who quickly explained the story to Shultz in his seventh-floor office. Shultz promised quick action. Another year passed and Miller, carrying a briefcase full of letters, maps, booksi and promises, went from the CIA to Capitol Hill and back to the State 'Department. untold Approved For Release 2002106/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 f?simEutErarEonvecL_For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R0. i -I -,_ ' .z.. ? CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR n 1 r 28 November 1984 ? ' C --- ';' LETCERg, 100040001-4 Mappings Martin H. Miller's story "A victory for maprnaking" [Nov. 6] is interesting .because it implies that "things" concerning the -mapping" of Jordan's West Bank were putback in "order" with international law and logic. Mr. Miller's story has in my view another flip, and it goes as follows: In 1947, the international community re- presented by the United Nations General Assembly de- vised a partition plan of all Palestine into two states: one Jewish, one Palestinian. This is the primary and legal premise of the world's recognition of the State of Israel. Unification of Transjordan with what remained of the part that was allocated for the Palestinians in the UN partition plan cannot be compared in any reasonable way with Israel's claim of the said 2.200 square miles of land. Jordan in 1948 did not expel any army or government from that area; Jordan preserved its Arab identity Israel in 1967 did expel Jordan from that area and en- forced total military control over it. This action is not recognized by any state in the world. It is a poor argument to say that because not all states recognized Jordan's sovereignty over that area, all states including the US should recognize Israel's military con- quest of the same area, and consequently remap it as part of Israel. The UN's partition plan was and should remain the only legal premise when people are concerned with remapping regions such as this one. Mr. Miller can rejoice in his accomplishment. but can the CIA and State Department afford to follow suit? ?? Pat Reynolds Arlington, Va. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 ---2-7_-Avproved For ReleatliefffiN21 c9\11F To R ? - 10?-01137R000 6 November 1984 A victory for mapma By Martin H. Miller THE Central Intelligence Agency has stopped de- picting the so-called "West Bank" as an integral part of the Kingdom of Jordan: For the first time since Jordan was evicted from the area in the war of 1976, this area, which has long been the focus of American for, eign policy is not presented in a CIA map and text as Jordan's in perpetuity. . . It took almost three years of effort ? articles in news- papers, many letters and phone calls and visits, and ex- tensive help from my congressman, Rep. Michael D. Barnes (D) of Maryland -- to bring this about. The accurate map of Jordan and accompanying text are in the new edition of the CIA's annual "World Factbook," which can be bought at government bookstores or ordered from the Superintendent of Docu- ments, Washington, D.C. 20402. The "West Bank" consists of only 2,200 square miles of land. But few areas of the world ? and none so tiny ? have received as much attention from presidents of the United States, our secretaries of state, national-security advisers, or directors of the CIA. . Ali that the agency responsible for evaluating "intelli- gence relating to the national security" did in depicting the area in question was to violate United States legal policy and the facts. The CIA did this at the direction of the State Department, which calls the shots for govern- ment mapmakers. In small State Department and CIA maps, the area on the west side of the Jordan River was simply shown as Jordan. On larger maps, the area was shown by markings, color, and nomenclature as part of Jordan "oc- cupied" bv Israel_ The consequence has been that a person looking at a map of the "West Bank" has asked himself, "What busi- ness does Israel have here? This is part of Jordan." Is- rael is labeled a transgressor and, consciously or not, government policymakers have , been influenced in their attitude' toward Israeli actions in the area. Against such a background measures, like President Reagan's ill-fated Sept. 1, 1982, "Middle East Initiative" make sense. This called for a confederation between the "West Bank" and Jordan. The President termed the plan "the greatest foreign policy accom- plishment of my administration." It was rejected by all of the pro- posed participants. My campaign to make the State Department of the United States and the Central Intelligence Agency "honest" began with a let- ter datedNov. 4, 1981, to I Alexander Haig, then secretary of state. I asked. "Should the so- Approved For Release 2002/06/24: called 'West Bank' be shown as part of Jordan in maps issued by the Department of State," and observed that "Not even the members of the Arab League recognized Jordan's sovereignty over this area." - The reply came six weeks later in a letter from Lewis M. Alexander, director of the State Department's Office of the Geographer. He conceded that only Great Britain and Pakistan had ever acknowledged Jordan's sover- eignty 'over the area. In short, the US did not endorsel Jordan's 1948 military occupation of the area. Neverthe- less, even after. Jordan was expelled from there in 1967, the State Department and the CIA continued to show it as Jordan's. In 1974 at the Rabat Conference of the Arab League, 3 Jordan's King Hussein relin- quished Jordanian claims to the 3 area. The State Department and the CIA continued to show it as '3 Jordan's. Nongovernment publishers and the media followed suit. For the public, for journalists, for stu- dents, and for present and future presidents and secretaries of state ? for an entire generation of Americans ? the "truth" from ? our trusted sources from every side has been that the "West ? Bank" is an integral part of Jordan. This has influenced our percep- tions of "right and wrong" in judg- ing the area and what the US should do about it............ The work to get the State De- partment to cease the dissemination of erroneous and misleading data about Jordan and the "West Bank" has brought results, although much remains to be done. The CIA and 10 other nrapmaking agencies were told in a State Department directive dated Sept. 30, 1982, to make specified changes in their new maps of the Middle East. This was the first breakthrough. The accurate map and text in the CIA 1984 fact book came next. ? Martin IL Miller is a free-lance writer.- Current man in CIA -I CIRd WnrIrl Approved For Release 2002106/24 .01137R000100040001 -4 AR T I CU! /1.17EARI, N PAGE WASHINGTON POST 8 March 1984 DIVERSIONS: The World of Maps By Dana Hay Like reluctant daffodils, human spir- its meet March winds with hunched imagination.s, yearning for April's bake. It is a good season for charting a new comae by the hearthsicle, bound in by an atlas or spinning the globe. Formore specific perusing% there are sources for every type of map: cultural, physical, political, as well as these de- signed for the traveler, land developer or business person. The Cartographic Division at the National Geographic Society (NGS) prepares cultural and political maps as magazine inserts and as separate wall maps, many available on either paper ($3) or plastic ($4). "The Peoples of China' is printed on both sides, multicolored, 371/2 x 301/2 inches. Other maps in this series depict ethnic groups of the Soviet Union, Southeast Asia and the Arctic region, as well as Indians of both North and South America. U.S. maps indude "Wild and Scenic Rivers," "Heart of the Grand Canyon" and "America's Federal Lands." Avian fans vall appreciate the colorful "Bird Migration in the Americas." ? Regional subjects vary from the his- torical map, "Mideast in Turmoil," chronicling changing conditions since ? 1800, to "Holy Land Today." ? History buffs can find the NGS "Battlefields of the Civil War," 30 x 23 inches., the National Ocean Service (NOS) map of General Sherman's 1863-65 marches from Washington, D.C., to Brunswick, Ga, 31 x 50 inches ($3), or, for the Colonial period, the Li- brary of Congress Gift Shop facsimiles of a 1639 map of Manhattan ($15) and John Smith's Map of Virginia ($1.75). For archival research, the Geography and Map Division of the Library of Congress boasts the largest, most com- prehensive cartographic collection in world?more than 3.8 million maps and 47,000 atlases. Genealogists and local historians can refer to the large collections of 19th- and early 20th-century county and state - , maps, as well as atlases. Of -Colonial and - Revolutionary periods. There ?-also are, 'photoleproductions of manuscript inaps from other American arid European archives. The Libnary'S Hummel and Werner Oriental collections include iar- kieS from the 17th centitrY. ? ? For reference or travel. be* the C.JA and the DOD Defense Miming_Ag (DMA) offer current foreiramaps. IA ?maps are folded in vario959_2, ? km the GPO. DMkpresents a wipe view of the world, The "Great Circle Map," with Washington, D.C., at the center of the world and no political boundaries, 34 x 42: inches ($4.10). Other DMA maps include a timely - "Middle East- Briefing Map," Series 1308, 34.x 38 inchea($2.20) and:a orful 'Time Zone Map," ($5) from the DMA Office of Distribution Services or The Map Store. H ?,,r ' British Ordnance Survey, -Institut GeOgraphique _National, K.ommetly & Prey and Otherforeign maps are among I The Map Store ,collection representing - more Than 150-publishers: - Domestic travelers may note that ? several geologic/highway maps ($5 Plus, ,$1.50 postage and- handling), published by the American Association of Petro- ken Geologists, are stocked by the Au- dubon Book Store. Hikers and cyclists find helpful the pocket-fold maps of the PotomaC Appala,chieai Trail Club. Pre- pared by Club committees, these topo- graphic renditions are -based on U.S.GS.' data, With additional trail in-. formation. Prices and postage fees vary. A "Visit-ars Guide to National Wild- ' - life Refuges, 17 x 22 inches ($2.25), is prepared by the US. Fish and Wildlife , Service and available from the GPO. Planning to do something about the weather?. The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Analysis Center pro- duces temperature and Precipitation probability maps and tables. The "Monthly and Seasonal Weather Out- look" is published in 9x12-inch format, 2fincinth (annual Subscription $31,), ? from the GPO. ' 7. . The NWS Forecast Divison offers 34-5 day and 640-10 day forecast maps, mailed folded from the Technical -Support Group in Camp Springs, Md. Earthquake activity can be seen on the USGS 20x 33-inch "Seisinkity Map of Delaware and Maryland," a study in black and white. ? The National Ocean and Atmospher- ic Administration (NOAA) aeronautical navigation charts cover low and high altitudes, jet navigation and airport ob- structions ($L10-$14). The National Ocean Service pro- duces bathymetric, navigation training, offshore mineral leasing and small-craft maps in pocket-fold size, as well as tide tables, tidal current and Great Lakes canoe charts ($2.75-$8) and shoreline movement studies (set of 18, $10). The National Marine Fisheries Ser- vice Angler's ?Guide to the United States is published by region., Section 5 on the Chesapeake Bay includes 4 maps ($9) from GPO. A colorful LANDSAT image of the Bay and vicinity can be ordered from USW, 39 inches square ($3.60). Other views from space are the NGS photomosaic satellite "Portrait -USA," 421/2 -x 291/2 inches, and the Apollo As- tronauts/Earth photo, 34 ic 23 inches. NGS depictions Of the Moon, Mars, Solar System and Universe all contain descriptive text. - Collecting and supplying technical information since 1879, the U.S. Geo- logical_ Survey is the source Of some of - the world's most beautiful and accurate maps, both topographic- ($2.25) and geologic ($1.9(-$6.60), many areas in choice of three scales. To receive notice of new USGS publications, write Mail- ing List Unit, USGS, 329 National Cen- ter, Ratan, Va. 22092. The Maryland Geologic Survey has a varied selection of maps, from -recently published revelations of sedimentary and crystalline rock formations' in' Bal- timore County and City, 41 X49 inches ($4) to such interesting 1935 4naPS as those showing the original Baltimore Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137RATOrt4-601-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R0001 40001-4 shoreline in black with greenruiverlay, printed on tracing-weight paper,:- for framing, 28 x 35 inches (50 cents).;L"' The Virginia Department of-Conser- vation Division of Mineral Resources offers a multicolored "Mineral Resource Map of Virginia" ($8), with a supple- mental 28-page Directory ($4) and aero- radiometric maps presenting contour images of three radioactive elements in areas such as the Culpeper Basin ($3). Other resource-management,' __maps, available from the Bureau of_la.nd Management Western Office,ltiOnde wilderness study areas for 10/0,...rn? ? states, public domain lands aigi. . photos of townships. - lithe above' lures you-from ter wearies and serves as in into the world of mapsi-perha* intensive explorations may inter* " Try, for 'example, "The Map Co a British quarterly 'publication 4silfOut ? $30 annual 'subscription) from Cfavrch Sq., 48 High St, Tring, HertfciOsbire, England, U.K HP23 5BH. Map enthusiasts also may join The Washington Map Society' (M): lend SASE to Robert Hansen, 3051 ltWio Ave. NW,-Washington; D.C. 20016 Dana Dana Hdy is a Washington w Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Article appeared on page C-1 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 THE WASHINGTON POST 18 February 1979 Immerses Himself ? Detail, But Persona air Limite, EXCERPT: The 13 days of_Camp David,: Carter's high-stakes gamble undertaken wi no assuranee of success; -stands as the high point of his persona:U.:diplomacy. Its ups and downs have been real ted in detail. What isnot well kno hoWever, is that basic-agreement to an Evptian-Israeli- peace:treaty was not among even the objectives as assessed in advance by the White-House; and that Carter draftecLthe corent the bi- lateral accord in his own hand and Al his own initiative midway through the Camp David meetings. ? Later; -in preparation for the Blair House talks which' aimed at' complet- ing the treati;. Carter obtained a huge Map; of the Sinai from the CIA and with the aid of- T.T.S.;geogiaphera drew e the interim :iiiithafawal- lines and final military zones fOr:,Stibroission to the Egan and,Isrielf negotiators. :He also -worked on the details of the pro- posed 10-article treaty which the US: presented to the two sides at the outset of the Blair House negotiations. All 'this, in the absence-of connnen surate progress toward agreement o the West Bank and -the Palestinian question, represented-a major turn to; ward a bilateral Egyptian-Israeli ac- cord rather than the: comprehensive tlldeast peace Carter had steadfastly; promoted before. As in his watering1 down of SALT]! objectiveilronideepl cuts to marginal reductions in strate-1 gic weaponry, Cartertook a pragmatic' approach under pressure without for7i mally giving up his more ambitious goal. The great question in these areas, as in human rights, nuclear prolifera- tion and other fields where he has had to compromise, is whether and to what extent he will persist in pursuing the long-term objectives. : Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137Ik000100040001-4 ARTICLE APPIEA kED ON PAGE Approved For RD/easel /11210CatILDCMHINF90-01137 20 June 1977 R000100040001-4 Washington Whispers, * * * So quickly do new nations spring up or achieve independence these days that the Central Intelligence Agency now prints its world maps by computer, allowing revisions in a twinkling. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R300100040001-4 Chicago Tribune 2 August 1975 By Jam?Rbbso Ro!ig;on Editor-- , _Marks'. allegations recent- re-?, . orts That Belgian Jesuit . Roger Velce mans received $10 ;million- in CIA and .ZisST'OwE mattcr-orfactly. But what- ?Agency for International Development ',11e said had far more impact than the Rinds from the.Rennedy administration .way he said IL It revealed a pattern of in 1963 :to counter the growing Leftist :alleged CIA entanglement with _ the sentiment in Chile. , ? ? MARKS SAIDIT was a common atti- ; "It- just seemed thai-. 1.vhen. made '?:'" - . ? tuamong members of the intelligence _-:these phone calls I kept ;turning up mls- :comunitf to use anyone, regardless of sionaries., who had CIA involvements or,. his -position; to i iecure information or kenw someone who did,!' Johil ._Marks, ,.. furthAr CIA goal.i. ?: ? - :.- --:--..-- '.-:' .F'T . - . CO-author of "The CU,1 . and the ?Ct:dt ,of ,":,--_,'"Hell, I'd' use anybody -if it was` to the ? . Intelligence," said in a. telephre'inter-:-,-;_". furtherance Of :any Objectiir-e,"_?one?intel-- , view with The Tribune. : ::. -_?;:.,. : -,=.','.. i.? ?--'.- ? ligence, officer was :quated by Marks - Marks, who ' v.,orked five ? years as an -, ;!Tve - used Buddhist monks,:: Ca tholic- analyst for the State Department'.s Intel-, ,,priests, and even a Catholic bishop." ligcnce Bureau,: said _30, to 40 per ..., ? But being' unwittingly used by the CIA cent of his calls produced. a Missionary:. ,may have been a More Cm nonOccur-- who had ?a story of. CIA-church connec --.renee' for: missionaries, Marks saidl.:He ' tions overseas or knew someonc:who,did.. ,..: Spolei Of several exaMples where' money ? _ "There must be . a lot of it . (CIA.-:-_:'.was supplied by the CIA .thrii various ! Church 'Connections) because I didn't . front organizations: , ? - - _ .- -even' look Very hard," Marks_ said. not.:.. 0.A grant . of $5,000 from the Asian Ing that his'Samplilng was ,completely i Free Labor Institute for educational pro- _ ' unscientific .and involved about 30 -mis- : grams aimed at trade :unions was to be : sionaries. ? ? , - - , funnelled to. a priest in India : until he _ _ . . . . , . . _ . . 1 t . - ?? - ' ? ? ., .. , discovered the. Money ,,was .from the i ' -.MARKS, ITOWEvER, Ilad --other?st? ,':. CIA. He truned down tie grant ries Culled from Ins-= knowledge -of _ t_he-f?:-,,: 0. A?."111.sgr:r galcedo'.! . regularly. ae-', intelligence community But he refused '..r,--cepted money f_ for :a church run radio to name naMes-,.sornethihg' that got.hini. ...:.. program. :aimed; at cOrabating i. illiteracy _ into a tussle With the 'courts ill the pUbli-s.--.,,,but .alsobroadcastinganti-Communist i cation pf the ,book that ,he, wrote:- lastropaganda.,-;'?-, ' year With , Vid or Marchetti, :a 14-year Another?,, ''..CIA-fulided.-:._',illiteracy :prd- -_ CIA veteran.- -_ ? - ? ? -?.--!.: ,-` g-am in Colombia used nuns _who nilwit- ' He told The Trihume about: - ' ?- :`. .- .,tingly collected data for the CIA as part._ .: O A Catholic bishop in Viet i\i'ain who . Or their field Work.. ?- : --.. r.: - ; '1????,. : . -., . Was on the CIA payroll -until at least :-.-.; .., But _ -?hovi :. reliable are rsMarks' . 2-- ?.'-' ? ;: ? . allegations/ r'':- ; -- '? ,'-r-- ? ? - . - ? ? A Protestatirmissionary to Bolivia ,',.: . - '....., . -... _2,2'; *!-' -"---..-_-?',.--- - -' ':- '. ' . who filed CIA reports? naming peOple he-, ?'; -?:"TlIF.?:' SPECIFIC allegations' ...that suspected ox being Communists:- ' --.' - :_:._;_Marks rmikeS_ are .pretty credible" said O A missionary in India who supplied ? Thomas ? Quigley, ?a ?Latio American' ex-?' data to the CIA hut then_ stopped when . .pert with the :United._ States Catholic , _._.. he realized E.'how foolish" it was. . . Conference_ O AnOther. Protestant missionary in ,-- - "I frankly don't believe that the CIA - ? tolivia who kept tabs on the Communist -finds information _ from .- -.missionaries Party, labor unions,- and farrners'._ coop-, ; yery.itnPort_ant,"!. said-the Rev., Eugene . ,. . eratives in behalf of the CIA .:i' ! ?4.- - ,St,pc,?.1y.e1),:jt.ead-,:o.f..the..4..N4tjonal.:._copri_cil,-:i _ - ? Approved For Release 2002/06/24 : CIA-RpP90-011M44040001-4 Approved For ReMe4M2/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-01 25 July 1983 D INTERNATIONAL SOVIET UNION How Sick Is Yuri Andropov? he old man's left hand trembles notice- Tremors: The latest alarm rang in Mos- ably. Or maybe it's his right hand; oth- cow earlier this month when Andropov missed two scheduled appointments with er reports say the left hand appears "numb and stiff" His shuffling walk suggests inns- West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. "I miry, but then a foreign visitor can emerge was sick," he told Kohl when he finally showed up for the third_ Once the session from a tete-i-t6te calling him alert and vig- 1 orous. That clqh-ri expression: does it reflect began, Andropov appeared mentally alert, West German Foreign Minister Hans-Die- the cool of a clever negotiator?or another trich Genscher told his alliesin Washington Hans-Die- symptom of Parkinson's disease? And those last week. The Soviet leader spoke without disappearances: has he slipped off to a da- cha?Or to a hospital for kidney dialysis? notes and acted very much like the man in Taking the evidence as a whole, the patient charge. But in Washington, a team of doe- obviously suffers from heart disease. Or tors employed by U.S. intelligence began perhaps diabetes. If only half the health working on their urgent reassessment of the bulletins on Moscow's rumor circuit bear Soviet leader's health. A videotape study any truth, the wonder is that Yuri A.ndro- showed that Andropov's hands trembled -pay can still get oui of bed in the morning. when he used them?a common problem for older people?not when he rested them. 'The conclusion was that the tremors did not indicate Parkinson's disease.- The analysts also ruled out Alzheimer's disease and Hodgkin's disease. In addition, he did not appear to restrict his consurnfDtion of sugar as a diabetic would. Nor was there any evidence that Andropov ce-nsistently used major nerve diseases or cancer. They have medicinal drugs that might hamper his also ruled out a serious kidney ailment re- powers of thought or speech. quiring dialysis?although many Kremlin More controversial, the U.S. team con-- watchers in Moscow believe evidence to the eluded that the pattern of Andropov's pub- contrary One of the Soviet leader's main lic appearances argued against any major complaints appears to be a heart illness kidney disease; he drops -from sight often, dating back at least to the 1960s. His treat- but dialysis treatment would require more rnent, a senior U.S. intelligence official told regular absences. That finding contradicted NEwSWEEK, probably includes an Ameri- can-made pacemaker. The study's overall origi- nating from a medical source with contacts conclusion: Andropov is indeed a sick man among Andropov's physicians?that the who does not wear his years as well as Ron- prominent patient suffered from serious aid Reagan. But "according to our actuarial kidney problems. After his no-show ap- tabl es," says the intelligence source, "Yuri poin menu with Kohl, West Germans in the Andropov is going to be around for a while." chancellor's party had even spread private The intelligence analysts ? concede that , Soviet reports that Andropov had passed a their medical chart on Andropov is far froni kidney stone?a version that U.S. intelli- complete. Western diplomats and journal- 1 gencesays could be plausible. ists in Moscow MUST diagnose his maladies The evidence that Andropov has serious from what they see of him on television and heart problems?complicated by high blood hear from the foreign leaders who meet him Pressure?is much better established. He in person. Intelligence services also debrief has had atleast two heart attacks, the second visitors, analyze photos and process any in 1966. And the Soviet leader himself dis- useful tidbit of evidence_ For example, they. closed that he has an American-made pace- Monitor Soviet orders for foreign medical maker. Andropov mentioned the device supplies. The stakes riding on an accurate during a meeting with a Western delegation. diagnosis are high?especially when the according to the U.S. intelligence source. Reagan administration is considering a Somebody in the delegation mentioned U.-S.-Soviet summit meeting. "You natural- Minneapolis; Andropov tapped his chest ly don't want to be bargaining with someone and said he "knew about Minneapolis." A who's not going to be aro u4 011.5\48 r Rtii4Vigel:10112106024triCIAIRdanif1343613137 R000100040001 -4 says the U.S. intelligence official. 137R000100040001-4 ? / ? Without question, Andropov, 69, does not appear to be feeling very well these days. The extent of his ailments are, of course, a state secret_ But after a major reassessment of the Soviet leader's health, U.S. intelli- gence officials now endorse a guardedly optimistic prognosis. They have concluded that Andropov does not suffer from any ARTICLE kPPEkRED Approved For Releieslei-2011211:16/24TOMAIRDP90-01137R00 ON PAGE 11 October 1983 Iran Again Threatens All Oil Shipments From Persian Gulf; Spot Prices Edge Up < last long and could be partly mitigated by alternate supplies from other oil producers By YOLISSEF M. lawatia around the world' in an rt SiaLf Reporter of THE WALL ST1TiZE J -r OURNAL NEW YORK?Iran again warned the big Arab oil exporters that it will halt oil ship- ments. out of the Persian Gulf if Iraq un- leashes its newly acquired French Super Etendard warplanes; spot oil prices began edging up in anticipation of such a possible =oil shock. The latest Iranian warning was made to . Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab 'Emirates, according to an Iranian govern- ment official who asked not to be identified. They were told last week, the Official said, ?in clear language that in-case of an attack on-us they will also suffer." . Iran's warning came as France was com- pleting delivery to Iraq of five Super Eten- dart warplanes capable of firing French- made Exocet missiles already Iraq's pos- session. Any use by "Iraq of the missiles would mark .a major escalation in the fight- ing, and spot crude oil, heating oil and gas- Dependence on Oil Delivered Through Hormuz (In percent) 13.5 62 62 ? 'I-LS, Western Europe [:::::::;;Imports 1M Consumption- 4rUdie oil and refined isetroteurn probuCts trorn liahrein Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United &tab Emirates in 15,t2 as percentauesp4 ITistern oil imParts and of wesierp oil consumplItm. Oil passing thrmpri 'Me Straus el elormia makes up a Mailer ihere at U.S. lot& oil con- sumption ix-cause The .U.S. prO0uCeS Mat 01 Trie oil It uses. &ourcE: central Imellipence AberiCt. line prices all climbed sharply on the possi- bility that the escalation could interrupt or slow down passage via the Straits of Hor- muz, through which travels about 20% of oil shipped to the West. But 'even while such warnings were being passed, analysts in the West were cautioning that any impact from such a crisis wouldn't , apparent eff o to cool Western concern, a senior Iranian of- ficial said in a telephone interview that he doubts the Iraqis would -carry out their threats to unleash the missiles. "We don't take these Super Etendards so seriously," ' the Iranian official said. The 'relatively calm reaction from oil in- dustry and military sources in the U.S. and Western Europe is based on -the view that Western powers, led by the U.S., won't allow a cutoff of crude-oil supplies from the region to last longer than a week. It is also sup- ported these sources say, .-by vast new stra- tegic reserves of oil held by Western indus- industry sourc an oil-price rise and a degree of panic if the war spilled over to other producers in the Gulf or resulted in closing the Hormuz Straits entrance to the Gulf. But they be- lieve the panic could be contained and the I price rise moderated. Officials of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the 21-nation crisis-manage- ment group set up after the Arab embargo, say the shortage of oil exports would .be less than traumatic. Although somewhere between 8 million and S million barrels of -oil -are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz every day from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait. Iran, 'Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates?not all will be missed. Other oil producers such as Nigeria, Libyaallexico, Venezuela, Algeria, Indone- sia, 'Britain, Norway. and the 1.7S., could make up three -million barrels a day of the shortage by boosting their production within trial countries and Japan. These can make a few weeks. an anticipated shortage in supplies from the In addition, Saudi -Arabia, -which Gulf .for as long as three months. overland pipeline crossing from the Eastern The relatives ease with .which the devel- province oil fields of Yanbu. a Red Sea port oping crisis is being viewed in Western gov- On Its Western coast. can divert almost an- ernments and industry circles reflects the other in million barrels a day from the lessons learned from previous world oil cri- ses, including the Arab oil embargo of 197 and the Iranian revolution of 1979, which ' took three million barrels of supply off the market, causing panic and a huge jump in oil prices, sources say. Among other things, experts say, the in- dustrialized nations hold more than 90 days of oil supplies in reserve and there is almost a month's supply in tankers at sea. Furthermore, Iran's navy and armed forces are deemed incapable of effectively blocking access to the Gulf for longer than a few clays in the face of a formidable armada , of U.S., French and British navy ships just outside the Gulf. Col. Jonathan ALford, deputy director of the London International Institute of Strate- gic Studies, estimates Iran's naval power at three destroyers, four frigates and 10 fast patrol boats. Be figures that if Iran tried to close the Gulf to navigation it would have to ? mine it. The U.S. Navy in the region could undo such action by use of minesweepers . and helicopters in "a couple of days or a , week .at roost," be said.. Iran also might use missiles and ground artillery to hit ships or use its air force to damage neighboring . countries' oil-loading facilities. But military sources don't foresee Iran's ability to sustain such action for long, partly becatise of the lack of .equipment. The world won't escape a measure of crisis if the Iran-lraq war gets out of 'hand. Oil markets are nervous despite the over- whelming oil glut that prevails. Yesterday, the rising rhetoric of Iraq and Iran, for In- stance, sent up sharply, prices of crude oil, heating oil and gasoline futures. Borne-heat- ing oil prices for November delivery rose 139 cents a gallon to 82.8.3 cents a gallon. Gulf. Currently, the pipeline, with a capacity of 1.8 minion barrels a day, .is moving. only about 400.000 barrels a day, industry sources said. The oil glut is forcing the other produc- ers to reduce available capacity. Nigeria, alone, is producing 1.3 million barrels a day, and its capacity could be increased to as much as 2.2 million barrels daily, Some experts question whether some of these countries would be willing, or able, to increase their production quickly enough to make up a sizable shortage. Nevertheless, International Energy Agency and cials think a crisis would be manageable_ "I don't see a crisis meeting of the (agency's) governing board in the first week, maybe not even in the first month," said one agency source. Sources at the ?en- ergy agency said that the emergency exer- cise it carried out last spring and summer, assumed a shortage of more than eight mil- lion barrels a day that lasted several weeks. It included a cutoff of Gulf oil exports as well as those of Nigeria, the sources said. In that exercise, a crisis situation was de- veloped that resulted ill pushing oil pines in the U.S. to the theoretical level of $98 a bar- rel in just several weeks. Agency officials said, this was the result of a much more acute crisis, however, and one that was far less 'likely to Occur than the prospect of a Gulf shortage. We will get a psychological reaction no matter how short the interruption is, but we think- ft isn't going to be critical," the agency source said. Many Arab diplomatic observers believe Iraq is deliberately fanning the threat of a wider war to get PiTesterri and regional pow- ers involved in pressuring Iran to end the CONTINUED Approved For Release 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Ilifermaa6SkuWDP90-01 5 September 1984 By IA. LIVINGSTON CIA reports on the world Maybe this will surprise you. It did me. For many years, the Central In- telligence Agency (CIA) assembled from numerous sources a unique re- port on the economic and political facts of nations. It was a classified document for internal CIA use and for distribution within the govern- ment In the early 705, it was realized that much of the material was not secret and would be of value in refer- ence libraries and to teachers, econo- mists, scholars, businessm-n and people interested in international af- fairs. In 1975. a declassified version was put out as the National Basic Intelligence Factbook, and made publicly available. Subsequently, the name was changed to The World Factbook, which better describes what it is. In size, it is letter paper ?11 by 81/2 inches_ It comes in soft-cover, and the 1984 edition, which has just come out, consists of 274 pages plus 12 excellent maps. The price is $11. 15,500 copies About 15,500 copies have been printed. Most are for use within the government. About SOO are allotted to the Documents Expediting Project In the Library of Congress for paid subscribers to what is called the CIA reference aid series, primarily li- braries, embassies and businesses in and outside the United States. And 4,400 copies have been made avail- able for public sale, mainly through the Government printing office, Washington, D.C. 20402. There are 190 nations or places in the Factbook starting with Afghani- stan and extending to Zimbabwe, Tai- wan and the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip. In between are the Bahamas, Niger, Nigeria, Gibral- tar, Seychelles, Gambia, Saudi Ara- bia,North and South Korea, the two .Germanys, France, Czechoslovakia, Soviet Union, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and so around the world_ The United States appears with this disclaimer: "The Factsheet on the U.S. is provided solely as a service to those wishing to make rough com- parisons of foreign-country data with a US. yardstick. Information is from US. open sources and publica- tions and in DO sense represents esti- mates by the U.S. Intelligence Community." Item by item Heading each Factsheet, except that of the United States, is a small black-and-white map that positions the country geographically in rela- tion to its neighbors. The scope, character and method of presenting data are indicated by this sampling on Poland: Land: 312,612 kilometers, 49 per- cent amble, 27 percent forest, 14 per- cent other agricultural, 10 percent other. Population: 36,887,000, average an- nual growth 0.9 percent. Religion: 95 137R000100040001-4 percent -Koman Catholic (about 75 percent practicing), 5 percent Uni- ate, Greek Orthodox, Protestant, oth- er. Language: Polish, no significant dialects. Organized labor: New government trade unions formed after dissolu- tion of Solidarity and all other unions in October 1982_ Government: Official name Polish People's Republic. Type, communist state. Capital, Warsaw. Suffrage, uni- versal and compulsory over age 18. Election, every four years. March 1984 election postponed. Commu- nists, 2.4 million (1983). Speedy comparison Economy: gross national product, $186.8 billion in 1982; $5,160 per capi- ta. 1982 growth rate, 4.8 percent. Ma- jor industries: Machine building, iron and steel, extractive, chemicals, shipbuilding and food processing. Agriculture: Self-sufficient for minimum requirements. Main crops ? grains, sugar beets, oilseed, pota- toes, exporter of livestock products and sugar; importer of grains. Exports: $15.6 billion (f.o.b. 1982), 57.7 percent machinery and equip- ment, 26.2 percent fuels, raw materi- als, semi-manufactures, and so on. Major trade partners: 1982 ? 65 percent with Cominunist countries Military manpower: Males (15-49) 9,320,000; fit for service 7,402,000. Military budget: 201_5 billion zlo- tys, 7.6 percent of total budget. At the end of the Factbook is a table on how to convert acres into hectares, liquid pints into liters, yards into meters, etc. Yes, it's a useful book ? a guide to the geography, economics and poli- tics of nations, item by item, for speedy comparison. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For %amp Ang)61*EregliketESR3/40-0 17 April 1983 WASHINGTON MARTY MILLER VS THE MAPMAKERS BY JIM ANDERSON One determined man can make a difference. Take Martin Miller of Silver Spring, Md., a retired Treasu'ry D4artment official who moved the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency to change their maps of the Middle East to conform with U.S. policy. It took about a year of determination, dozens of telephone calls and scores of letters. A J 1137R000100040001-4 But Miller won in the end. The State Department issued new policy guidance that eventually will change the way all U.S. government maps and documents deal with the Kingdom of Jordan and the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip. As a symbol of his victory, Miller points to the first copy of a State Department map, printed in the latest monthly "Bulletin," that shows the West Bank and Gaza are not part of Jordan and their "status is to be determined." Until now, State Department maps and the annual National Basic Intelligence Factbook put out by the CIA routinely included the occupied areas as part of Jordan. The Factbook called the occupied areas West Jordan, which is not a term used by the United States, or the Kingdom of Jordan. The areas, which had been administered by Jordan since 1949, were seized and occupied by Israel in the Six-Day war in June 1967. By acceding at a 1974 Arab League meeting in Rabat to the Palestine Liberation Organization taking over as sole representative of the Palestininians, King Hussein of Jordan gave up any claim to the areas. The 1978 Camp David summit decided that the boundaries of the area would be settled by negotiation and there was no suggestion that the occupied areas were part of Jordan. The office of the State Department's Geographer, which sets the political guidelines for all U.S. government maps, did not get the word. It continued to put out maps that showed the occupied territories as part of Jordan and included their 5,439 square kilometers in Jordan's total territory. The CIA and the Defense Department followed in lock-step behind the State Department. Then along came Miller. He wrote his first letter Nov. 4, 1981 and got the usual treatment from the State Department: vaguely worded letters that ignored his questions. When he got his congressman, Michael Barnes, D-Md., to help, Barnes also received polite, non-responsive letters from the State Department. Writing to Barnes in July, Powell Moore, assistant secretary of state for congressional relations, said the depiction of boundaries on government maps 'does not necessarily reflect the U.S. legal position.'' ravirvuED Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 But Moore promised every effort to make new editions "accurately reflect U.S. policy" in the Middle East. Nothing happened until November when Miller got a copy of a letter that Lewis Alexander, director of the Office of the Geographer in the State Department, sent to 10 government agencies dealing with foreign countries. It issued new guidelines directing that the West Bank and Gaza Strip should be shown to be different from Jordan. Dale Peterson, a spokesman for the CIA, said that this year's Factbook will be changed to follow those guidelines. Score one for Marty Miller. Alexander said his office was moving in the direction of changing the maps anyway, but he conceded, "We were certainly prodded by Mr.. Miller to do it sooner than we might have otherwise." And why did Miller bother over such an arcane exercise? "The State Department can take credit for misinforming a generation of Americans about the status of an area which has been vital to U.S. foreign policy," Miller said. In addition, Miller said, it is unfair to label Israel as a transgressor on Jordanian territory when Israel is the recognized administratitve power over an area whose ultimate status is to be determined by negotiation. The geographical truth-in-labeling has spread to other parts of the globe. State Department maps now note that the U.S. government does not recognize the Soviet claim that the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are part of the Soviet Union. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 AZT= ital) - Approved For ReleaterA9M06/24 : CIA-RDP90-01' 'JULY 1977 1 ?g.XF ijia A1t1ie-complan did not it trial:It:4 utr.not- going our ficiala-7of the -Ford a was an intelligence- gap." intelligence Concern' , CO1b);"' fOrriiii.ilire:tar?'?Ortlie'OTku,CTiat;PYPr?IY/'4)(g.tugE ;;- ? One-of the most- publ ? ? - - ? - - is :the 'first of !tat-zit-kw otoiii'uS"-;ntfis-ii-mjIP4;14:ima.-42.,4i, 41441. - . -t-4-recentliIhatthe int - televised : . Defense Departi ? ? _ Newsday Washington - pureau7 did" "nf . - - ? -?? .,,T4r, prow poor ori ?:,--,-:7:-.;-Masliihgt0114ToP. officials',in^ -,the Carter:- to predict the - administration say they are;'..diseatiified the Mideast: icaliher -.of int-m-111E1*m analysts Provided 1.4.:they:.?.:1-Fr,;-;:ty_? 411 slvae not .15utPrii n'intelligence coinnitinity-45:4',3,--7.,.$4-:',f;v..?f*.41.7-*:-Lithill5all,)!...Nixoti said - Those officials, including White House Nationa' war "I thought basic Security? 'Adviser '.7bignieNif-,13kzezineli,i144?0*--7-Iiiiinity:'needed 7;tai-j, of State Cyrus series of irlr6" t41:reaching.Viair?:deska.."Qft.ezi-Jsjncit7,*04'.!4h!Oze.4::21,:t'-`-telligeriee!..expiiis:Tei and at timea has', failed, to alert thein':ta,Ralor:::0e7-7,-;athifproblerni;',5T,:f?-!;";...4i ilelopinents in the world Their The.te:: :-zstlear- during Cseriee=0:44ewsclay. interviews with furpation and not e Zleading policyjnakera-and thely;.aseistante-;:ont#P.t;''--$tiviiatit:4aeana.:: kOnd former intelligencet.Officiale-,',and.looligenc4-;,-10 The fraginented eperts on Capitol .Vq-tIt.-4.: connnun ? ---"The United States does-kern:to:hike if illation from --,reachir ? O - ? ar fascuiation)vitti technology_ and gedgetaikftrzefind..usable form:. :F?jzinski-;eaid,.';t7r-viguldsayT.t.halLthe-]ArneriCat,t-;;WOrt-t-Cli43- 0 Intelligencel-aki tination-gatberinglechniquesiaretheb!e4-:`,40.711*Isre-ciaion;.inakers eipectot them;', in "Part beCe.Vae';.thl world?the -fi-:equipineriC:sislahselotelyretrierkal31,eilsiOn4fakerS;c10, not ask the right:Auestiona-iancti :47?;-)Eltit'-iv--i*Iliefiinalysio.-of,,-tiie,p,if9Eniatio #140:;,,..ilf4F,4,-::,-.-tri rightii,ko.,the,CidOts of .thecagericiee4.4:-',.-14-f.;ti important. And _I. thinkftheratis'.poV..enOngkatte4-4 0 ftkt tinies=decisiontnakers-*eiye goodjutelli;I. Etion givedtcir the ability to gar oliatall-the--Linforeiice but disregard it for their reasons of ,-iroahon and/or polit-ice:?,,, Secietark.Of-State (1)-PiVerheadV:100-:;'-titlasel that ' there- is a-lprribletri-Vance--Saya theraii;t-Oo:;?=iiIrCammittee on Intellig6.ncefirst-Publii1S, iiisedfthr.1 ,..mucpanfirma tion. and there ,10 a-need. to decide Oii uestion- 'pf the quality pfiptelligenc-e,-clefined,thq and jeli"_0; 04e:oolity,-1413rqbiercc_tbi!---Wa ',-'TheY;?;041---;'(ine?tjap;,i*:-L:ArtTAN:6 ,T=TriatteniE:-;=';A--% getting': tin.iely: knowledge", in the-proper:: fashion'-1, Officials of the:: Carter White House say Are the cost and the risk justified !Jythe*iii.procP??=?.i ? ere not able' to 'obtain Itimely or adequate ?intelli ..-genre -.analyses. on such-Imatters % of , international;t7:.:1_!-;-AbOut: 80 Per cent of the ILO.: intelligence bud isignificance as the recent invasion of zpir..pc:0-!!i-re.;.--4,1.-get...) stient:o*railitaly-affairs;',arxx)rding tniarijrii4 ":?z-,..tnoval-of Soviet PreSident?Nikolai )7:._PedgOrnY;thd.-.4., forted source,: Put now decision-make are saying-7! the strength- of.the cOnseriative;Likud Party #ktlift_.:41here toust bo greater' the Intelligence ? 41-sraill-lectilirl'eatFLPaigni?--tarOca4tin.g-the P"!113.47-4;.;::cleniMiniitij----on political hate lik tityi of a ;new., hard-liae, era. in :Israel) leader4t..9;';:t!-K hell' to. predict the future,".- one Carter' laati9pal--3.11 ? , f; ; ' ? ? ? ? :4. ? ri ? - . ? . -! ? ? '-' ? ? !LI .7'??7?.k?..7,. - --? .?-??"-} 37 R000 1 00040001-4 ? _ Pattat44. . ? . Approved For Release 2002/06/24 -:-CIA-RriP90-01137R00010-0040001-4 r1.7:111.0 Approved 4t(k EITLJ 41; Crude Estimate Strength in Oil Price Isn't Likely to Last, Many Analysts Think Recent Rises Don't Reflect Much Gain in Demand; Barter Distorts Supplies What the CIA Was Told By YOUSSEF M. IBRAHIM ? : -?:' And ALLANNA SULLIVAN - Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREEVJ OURNAL When last January's meeting of the Or- . ganization of Petroleum Exporting Coun, tries broke up in disarray,. conventional ? wisdom in the international oil fraternity ! was that prices were heading for a slide. ? Since then OPEC has surprised skeptics LliY seeming to enforce at least Partial pro-' duction : discipline..- Oil:. companies have , El drawn' down inventories sharply, 'suggest- Mg they must- soon-. increase their. purr. chases. And prices have gone up some 15% instead of down - ' The conventional wisdom today: Prices are stillheading for a. slide. :"The 'bleeding has stopped,' but the patient hasn't recov- ered," says Lawrence Goldstein, the exec- utive i,ice president of the New York-based Petroleum Industry Research. Foundation. ? ?, Analysts and industry officials say the - pressures that have pushed free-market prices for such bellwether crude oils as West Texas Intermediate to $29.60 a barrel yesterday from a low of ?2.5.20 in January are only temporary: Says one forecast; produced. by the-Mall Street firm of Salo,. mon Brothers Inc.: "We now see 'factors developing, that are setting the stage for. the next downturn." Advantages for If so? that is 'for. the -most Part good' news for the-U:S....and other industrialized nations Oil-price l_moderation has beef a major restraint on inflation and interest rates', and more price weakness could help stretch out a slowing U.S., recovery, econo- mists say. ? ?? Softening oil pried- would also be good news for the strained international banking system and for big- Third World debtors that still import substantial quantities of oil. For -debtors that export -oil, such as - Mexico and Nigeria, the price news isn't good, but -the , interest-rate implications' are. For Releasabb2i07(far. 23 April 1985 ' Among the factors leading Salomon and others to expect lower prices are sluggish world oil demand, large amounts .of bar- tered oil on the market, continued skepti- cism about whether OPEC members will stay within their production quotas, contin- uing increases in non-OPEC production, and the slowing rate of economic growth in the U.S. . But if the outlook is that grim, how come prices are up, not down? Russian Supplies . One answer is that the balance of sup- ply and demand, if not as strong as pro- ducers might like, is much better than was expected a few months ago when OPEC , seemed near collapse. "OPEC managed to i keep prices from sliding over the cliff this winter," notes Robert Dederick, vice presi- dent and chief economist for Northern i Trust Co. in Chicago, , ? _ . 1 OPEC had help. ? A big drop in the delivery of Russian crude oil a.nd refined oil products to West- ern Europe, induced by domestic shortages Trend in Oil Pikes . Month-end spot price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate $81 30 29 , 28 27 26 AMJsJ ASONDJFMA '85 - 22 and rough weather, cut supplies on the market for much of the winter. Lastyear, the Russians shipped member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development as much as 2.3 million barrels a day of oil and products, accord- ing to the Paris-based International En- -ergy Agency. But in the 1985 first quarter, Russian supplies to OECD fell, to 1.8 mil.- lion barrels a. day; On the demand side,' an il-month coal miners' Strike led Britain to consume an extra 500,000 barrels of oil a day this past quarter to generate electricity. And; paradoxically, industry tons of lower oil prices have supported the current price bubble; says Philip Verleger, a consultant with Charles River Associates Inc. in Cambridge, Mass. Stich expecta- tions have kept Inventories "lean and mean," he says, noting that" ."the real tightness during recent weeks has been for promptly delivered Oil."?, 137R000100040001-4 Private Consultation (The squeeze pushed up crude-oil fu tures prices yesterday, but many traders remained bearish for the longer term: see page 50. On page 6 is an article on pros- pects for increasing U.S. dependence on energy imports.) Most market gurus don't think the strength in crude-oil prices can last. "We won't have a collapse overnight, but funda- mentals say it would be hard to prevent an erosion over the course of the next year or two," says Adam Sieminski, an energy specialist at Washington Analysis Corp., a consulting firm in the capital. That was also the consensus at a by-in- vitation-only meeting on the oil outlook sponsored by the Central Intelligence Agency two weeks ago_ A panel of 14 ex- perts from industry. Wall Street and think tanks answered questions from CIA and other government-agency analysts at the closed meeting. . . Although opinions on the panel varied, the majority held that prices will decline during the next two to three years to $23 to $25 a barrel, before starting to gather strength by the 1990s. For the near-term, prices may remain firm until the summer.. - although there will be day-to-day fluctua- . tions, panelists generally believed. ?1 One reason for 'expectations of longer- term decline is"that recent price increases don't seem to . reflect a recovery in world- wide demand. The :International Energy lAgency estimated in : its end-of-March . Imonthly ? oil-market report that oil ? con- sumption in OECD nations was 2.3% lower . in the-1984 fourth quarter than a year ear- lier. It was probably down about 2% in the. first quarter -also, the TEA said. Several industry officials and large in.: !ternational, -.traders also. expect" OPEC.- membersto exceed their production quotas as the hire of larger oil income becomes ir- resistible ? ? ? !I Oil-traders also say they are seeing-an !increase in exchanges of oil for other ? ; goods.- As a major ? Houston-based trader notes,. "Every barrel of bartered .oil that works its way- into the market ends by backing' out some other oil." ? - Over the past few weeks, a considerable 1 number of barter arrangements have been ! signed: by _Iran; Iraq, Libya and Algeria.' Saudi Arabia is currently negotiating -a ant swap with France to get 46 Mirage-2000 jets for $2 billion of oil, or the equiva- lent of 70,000 barrels a day over, three - years:. Although the Saudis have issued ? a vague denial of some aspects of the deal, they confirm that oil is under Consideration as a method of payment fcir Mirages. . Continued Approved For Release 2002/06124: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R0 CHARLOTTE OBSERVER (N.C.) 4 October 19 78 0100040001-4 ?-??" -7""r" encies_ tas, Bv oti'EPS"TE I NT ? , --observer washington sureau WASHINGTON? There :are no female agients in the US. Border Patrol. The4axicode-.Penalizes Work ing wives by forcingjamilies.,with twa:!..wage-earners to pay more - The Social?Security;tglyil:Serviceand-riwelfare sys- tems discriminate: againstromen, The parinets Home Administration regarcti-Nvomen as "one more of their husbands' assets? But-a4artner's wife is-liable for re-- paying?Ei.lban,. even if gets no benefit from. it These are onlf:a f 4:.iinstancesibt.Sex'discrimind-5.? tion irk federal agenclei,;c1ted TuesdaiiiiTi-jkistiZeDe- partment task forcreeportf,-.4.7..:-i ? :-.1??=rrf - The?spassage--,OL.=?itheEqualRights-=!Amendment :ERA).:Wcruld._not sialve4nost problems, said Ms. Stew-,,,, for.clirsCtor'',:Hundreds:of Changes': inflaWs-and zegulatiOrA.1."_.e,lrequiresiLshe-said-,i4 - (The- Senate,- opening debate on a-rHOus p a to extendZ-thORA ? ratification -:deadline;.: rejectifproposa1,',..toqet4itate:leilslatures-' withdraw approval of the measitie:)?-;V:i: --Drew,?Days,,'Assistant_?1:attOriteygeneratin:-.charge of the civil rightsTdiVisionaid-Zthe,taSk force dealt. with ' eonsciOusness'-').:;:,t including his. He-:.-confeisectlie-",:hia.sinterted:sexistilan- guage into the Federal Register.. "f had made it- cle4'that My deputies for'all- tinie would. have to be xrcaIes," Days -said:. !,My twO, dep- uties- happen to,be?rnales,?but,that does not always- have to be the ?-: ? ? The task forcet.was-,Create& by.tki.--Ford:--idminis tration and make the, governrrientniodel- f oenondiscriMinator_r treatment of wornen4V74-4.1,=:.-4 :ilililr-*?,-:-4,Aii-.4:;c -The-,task forcrecrininiedeled=;thiee Changes:,.; ' 4;#1.4resident, -nation in federally assisted prograrns;?-?71:;?_. ? Congress should' extend' Title-- yr Of the 1964 Civil Rights- Act to prohibit sex diSerimination. That: . Section forbids: other:, kinds of :discrimination, in pro- grains using: federal fundS.. TheJustice-DepartmentshouId have authority, r:t.64toordinate enforcement of bans :sex- discrimin !, li?W-f_ - - 'r ? Oneglia singled out the departments of ' -culture and -Health,-Education:laridelfare- (HEW) as among the worst offenders...7;.1',1.,'ii..:7,?????:?-?*?,:-.::?-.Ifi.-.7"" ?found that any tini e-*'i.-system...wav- se tqip white ,it - had -benefits '':and it had bUrdens;;-it7was ' going to burden the-women".and:beriefit_thenien,:!: she- : observed. 'Because-who were- theliwomennie.:.woinen Were-; f? poet.: They'.veri,i-olek.:They:hadcustody.of children,: ?alley had the worst. jobsi:?They got the-'worst4.nav - They got' fewer'Prorno.tions.:When?lbeygot olcLthe - got the least -moneyte, . . '?_ The 'marriage penalty ix,. the ta_r_laws,':','discour ages the wives in lower and middle Income famili from seeking employment and, thus- perpetuates th stereotypical: ,Viewriof . _women - liornernakers the report = :.:.- ? -..,,- In =Tr thi::itiStrai.13ePaitmiiit-,:ln addition to:-thi-,Eii 'der-PatroL:Ms.;0-rieglia said the FBI: has a bids agai women agents,' but is improving.?,--,-, _ ? - A pamphlet- describirj,ga, 'scribed' byythe:ta.S1 ic?fprce as nore like-an abbrevi -ated editionof Vogue rnagaifile.'.than.;a.---governmen reruit1ng brochure The .pamphlet,"showed,tonlyTwomen,:r&the:- repo "while not discussing- other inotef:Iucrativi-fo of professional. employment for-.-womeiri. hinting that men may also.beome CIA.-secretaries 2 =2,2,-.11.---r 57-Vs-;:" ? ^ Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 cf, re, Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R00 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY PUBLIC AFFAIRS Phone! (703) 351-7676 Mr. David R. Gergen Editor U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT 2400 N Street, N.W. Washington, D. C. 20037-1196 Dear Dave: WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505 1 April 1986 1100040001-4 On page 75 of the 7 April edition of U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT, you tell your readers: "Intelligence reports. The CIA makes some unclassified publications available. Included are studies of most countries--from Albania to Zimbabwe. Particularly popular are maps of places such as Afghanistan, Central America and Lebanon. For a free catalog, send a postcard to: CIA Public Affairs Office, Washington, D.C. 20505." Your information is incorrect. CIA does not provide studies or maps directly to the public. The information CIA makes available to the public can be obtained only through one of the following outlets: NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE (NTIS) U. S. Department of Commerce 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, Virginia 22161 or call: NTIS Order Desk: (703) 487-4650 ('se NTIS document number (PB number) when ordering) GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE (GPO) Washington, D. C. 20402 or call: (202) 783-3238 (Use GPO stock order number when ordering) Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 t*" !..RTICANO.811 UM& Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP9 r PAGE C-2., WASHINGTON TIMES 31 May 1984 JOHN CHAMBERLAIN 0-01137R000100040001-4 'Raising the stakes 1 , the Persian Gulf onald Reagan speaks reas- suringly about the --Situation in the Persian Gill!: where both Iraq and :Iran have-been attacking oil tankers carryirig 'crude oil bound for west- :ern imarkets.-"We have not volun- ;met-WIC-intervene," Reagan said at .1116s-press conference the other "tiOr:have we been asked." ? -Vie 'laid-back quality of Rea- 4anHs ,reaction is understandable lovlien one considers the sources of oupoil imports. In February, which wgshefore the attacks on the tank- , embegan, the leading oil importers to:the_ United States were Mexico- i; (1); Canadir(2), Venezuela (3), the ;Virgi.n. Islands (4) and Algeria (5). ' Cturliet- import requirements stood ,at2sonie 28 .percent. Imports were up over- a year ago by some 32 !percent, hut the 716,000 barrels of oil-:per :day we have been getting from :the Persian Gulf represents :only S percent of total US. needs an4=44ercent of our total oil !imports. Such statistics are comforting, but only up to a point. Reagan is right to de-emphasize the military dangers to the United States in the Persian Gulf flare-up, but we live in a world in which the price of energy is set in places like the Rotterdam spot market, over which we have no control. With the energy compo- nent in production rising in cost, President Reagan's hope to keep the inflation rate down could easily go glimmering. Moreover, we live in a world of allies ? Japan and Western Europe ? to whom we have promised sup- port from our own oil reserves if the Middle East is closed off. Japan and Western Europe need 7 million bar- rels of oil a? day (2.9 million for Japan, 4.3 million for Western Europe) from Middle East spigots. If, in extremity, we were called upon to keep our allies going from our own sources, our motorists would once again be paying through the nose at the local, gas pump. The insurance rates on tankers sent into the Persian Gulf have tri- pled in the past few weeks, adding from 20 to 50 cents to the spot price of oil, which now stands at $30.50 for a barrel. This is not a forbidding increase, but if there were to be total disruption of the Middle East, oil prices would rise by $5 to $10 a barrel. This would strike at the heart of the world economic recov- ery. CIA figures bearing on probable reaction to a Persian Gulf. cutoff ar partially comforting. The produc- ing nations outside of the Persian Gulf area have the capacity to increase daily production by some 3.5 million barrels a day. An addi- tional million barrels a day could be channeled through a Saudi Arabian pipeline to the Red Sea. Iraq has been exporting oil through a pipe- line running north through -flukey. But there would still be a shortfall of 3.5 million barrels a day to be accounted for out of the 8 million Middle East dependency figure. From the long-term point of view, crises such as the one posed by the current turn of the Iraq-Iran war work to break down the OPEC oil monopoly. Mexico and Canada benefit at the expense of the Middle East. But the United States, though it has had plenty of forewarning, has lagged woefully in preparing for possible renewed international oil stringency. Congress has been monumen- tally stupid in its refusat.to_p_as!_a, natural gas deregulation bill that would spark a renewed search for gas resources-and so cut down on our dependence on oil imports. Our legislators have also been all too negligent about such things as off- shore oil leasing. The practice of tacking moratoriums on develop- ment operations to appropriations bills is pernicious in the cumulative _ -roadblocks that are put in the way of adding to our known oil reserves. Currently some 53 million acres are locked up by congressional rtioratoriums. Maybe, now that the Ayatollah r Khomeini is treading on our toes, k Congress will begin to wake up. But don't bet on it? as Goethe or some- one said, the gods themselves con- tend with stupidity in vain. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01 T C LE APPEARED ON PAGE NEW YORK TIMES 16 JULY 1981 137R000100040001-4 ??C einbergef. Hopes to Publicize Soviet issue ]Jath : - 1 By RICHARD HALLORAN ..s. . seeiaralWet4a0YeekTene. - - I WASHINGTON,. July 15 With the !Soviet Union apparently deploying, its '. new medium-range SS-20 nuclear mis- , sites at a -rapid pace, Secretary of De- - ferse Caspar-W. Weinberger has. be- come involved in a dispute with intern- ? grace agencies over publicizing -evi- dance of the deployment, according to Administration officials._ Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr. a eserted in a speech_ in New York yesterday that thaScviet Union already had 750 nuclear warheads deployed on the SS-20's_ which- was considerably more-thea previously known, and said!. 1. that "the pace of the Soviet buildup lain- The Administration officials-here said, that the Soviet Union had deployed 235 to .250 missile launchers, which supported Mr. Haig's statement since each missile :can carry three warheads. Two-thirds of the launchers are aimed at Western Eu- rope and a third at China or other tar- gets in Asia, the officials said. Japanese officials, noted today; according to press -.reports from Tokyo, that 55-20's could reach any target in Japan. _ r. . ? e- ' - Deployenent PDS:Ably Greater e- Mr. Haig.and Administration officials may have understated the deployment. Souraes with access to Intelligence re- ports said that each launcher might be armed with three or four missiles. They :said, however, that the-intelligence on that was uncertain_ - .: -- ' . -- . ? ' -,e- - : In any event, Mr; Weinberger has ..b-een anxious.: the officials said,, to make _ I 'public photographs and maps of the SS- I 20 deployments in an effort to generate support here and especially in Western I Europe for' a United States plan to counter thein'.'"i ? ' I 'That plan calls for deploying Pershing 2 = ballistic missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles' in Western : Europe, beginning in 1983. Britain, West Germs- ny, and Italy have agreed to have them on their soil, despite political opposition, butother nations have refused. ? ? ? s.e?'? The officials said; however: that the- Defense Intelligence Agency...and' the I Central Intelligence Agency; had ada- - man tly refused to permit any publica- tion- of the evidence. The officials said that the intelligence agencies feared dis- closureof their methods and the quality .P'--'--'nfonmatin. ? Weinberger Briefed Europeans The idea of publicizing the evidence arose last April, after Mr. Weinberger had sponsored what was said to have _ been aativid and suCceesful briefing on the. Soviet threat to European defense, ? ministers in Bonn'. Mr. Weinberger re-: peated the briefing a " month later hi Brusselsea: ' - ? - ? In both cases, the European nainisters emerged from the briekfing to exclaimon the precision and breadth of the brief- ing and let it be known that they had asked Mr. Weinberger to make public as much information as possible so that they could persuade their own citizens of the extent of the threat - eeza - Mr. -Weinberger told :American- re- porters at the time that he agreed with his European colleagus and would see - what could be done. BUCEe-Faii findim= mediate resistance, the officials said, with his -own.ntelligence- people and with. the which lain charge. of space satellite reconnaissanceee . e Memo for Intelligence Agency tf-:: After several months of tallts,:the A i- . , _ - - . . cials? said;"Mra- Weinberger recently wrote a memorandum to the Defense In. telligence Agency, which is nominally under his control, asserting that they ;must prove th to, him why, e evidence could not be publicized. e 7 The officials said that the intelligence peepleWeee adamant in 'refieeing?lee, - L., . case any revelation u could give thei them to hide e'l.e frorsn; Soviet Union information that would e - United States satellites or other sensors.. It was the age-old .conilicte.said one i .. senior official, between the desire of the I ' policy-maker to use information to per- suade skeptics to accept his course of ac..i ' eke end the dire of-Intelligence- offi- cials to protect their ability to collect in-. formation. _at. Mr Weinberger, the ;officials said s..evas groping for a middle road in which maps might be generalized and only the.. amost obvious picturesaused. But they ? , said the intelligence agencies had dug in theirheels even against that.:;--; ....eeThree Versions of the S5-247? . . _ .5.; . The SS-20 missile conies in three ver- sions, according to a study_ done by the ? General Dynamics Corporation, a lead- ing military contractor, and builder of cruise missiles.' .0ne can ? carry a 1.5- ' inegaton nuclear, warhead for 3,500. miles while a second, can. carry three . smeller -warheads'- aimed- at separate. targetsaA third can carry.a 50-kiloton ? warhead 4,600 miles. ?? A kiloton is the equivalent of 1,00 tons ?'of TNT. A megaton is tile equivalent of a million tons. The atomic bomb that ex- ploded over Hiroshima in 1945 was in the range of 12 to 15 kilotonse ? ? The ? SS-20.- is - a two-stage: solid-hie]- ; ballistic missile- that can be-launched from a tracked transporter:- ? At the--beginning of .1980, the Soviet ? Union had. deployed100- missile launch- ers. That number grew to 160 by fall that _ year, according to intelligence sources. In January 1981, Harold-Brown, in his .? final report to Congress: as, Secretary of -.Defenseesaid the number had grown to .- 180. Mr.; Weinberger.--reperted in April that 220: launchers- had beee'deployed. with the number having. 235i Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 - U. S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT Approved For MelewiTE2D9406/24 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 ; 7 :1 I ki .1v,4 LLdJj , * * * Troubles of the CIA have all but dried 'up an important source of the Agency's information?exchanges with intelli- gence services of U.S. allies. Word has been passed from abroad that there's little chance of renewal of a free flow of information until congressional in- vestigations of the CIA have been completed. The operating budget of the Senate committee investigating the CIA has zoomed from the original $750,000 to nearly 1.2 million dollars. About 90 staff members are now at work, includ- ing a battery of experienced interroga- tors, plus a number of specialists with CIA or FBI experience. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 ? ? Approve1.14ifelease 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-0 137R000100040001-4 ARTMF kk.MARED WASHINGTON TIMES . 16 July 1985 Misinformation on dis ARNOLD BEICHMAN ? ? I recently read a review, pub- lished in a certain magazine to - be identified later, of a book, ' Dezinformatsia, by two respected academics, Professor Richard H. Shultz Jr. of "'lifts Uni- Varsity's Fletcher School of Diplo- macy and Roy Godson of Georgetown University. The review made the following serious charges against this book: . ? The book was said to use "spe- sious arguments to prove the ?byl- aw." 4- ? It misrepresents reality to prove a simplistic point. ? It is "misguided," exhibits a "total lack of understanding" about Clausewitz, shows "a superficial understanding of current history and the Soviet Union." ? It didn't "fairly report" the con- tent of Soviet journals, it has treated the subject "irresponsibly" it suffers from "extraordinarily naive assumptions" and "erroneous his- wry.? ? And the book was said "ulti- mately" to serve "neither scholarship nor the national inter- est." Such harsh language about the published work of academics can be defined as a form of character assas- sination, since it questions their honor as teachers and researchers. For my part, to he even harsher, I would say that this review could, with little editing, have appeared in a Soviet publication. Now, then, would you like to guess in what left-wing, pro-Soviet, Pro- gressive journal this book review appeared? If you're very smart and sophisticated, you might try and guess, but you'd be wrong. I'll have to tell you: This book review appeared in an official magazine of the government ? of the United States, a magazine pub- lished by the Central Intelligence Agency ? yes, by the CIA under the supervision of the Deputy Director- ate for Intelligence that is responsi- ble for all CIA analyses of world affairs. The publication, a quarterly called Studies in Intelligence, is an "in-house" publication. It is not dis- tributed publicly since some articles are classified; others, such as the book review I am discussing, are unclassified. The essay-review, in the magazine's winter 1984 issue, was written by Avis Boutell, a CIA analyst, who works for the Foreign Broadcast Information Service. When I read the Shultz-Godson book some months ago to prepare my own favorable review, I found it a cool, scholarly examination of Soviet propaganda and disinfor- mation strategies. So did a number of other distinguished Sovietologists and publicists, such as Professors Adam Ulam and Uri Ra'anan, Dr. Robert Conquest, and Professor Sid- ney Hook, who wrote the laudatory introduction. The book, now in its third edition, included what I regarded as highly informative interviews with defec- tors who had specialized, while in the service of the KGB in the U.S.S.R. and Czechoslovakia, in "active measures." The Soviet strategy of "active measures" involves, for the most part, covert disinformation as "a non-attributed or falsely attributed communica- tion, written or oral, containing intentionally false, incomplete, or misleading information [frequently combined with true information], which seeks to deceive, misinform, and/or mislead the target," accord- ing to-the Shultz-Godson definition. - In other- words, the book describes a panoply of Soviet tactics ? ? ? ?gie to marnpu ate t e marl in the democracies, the use of "agents of influence," sponsorship of clandes- tine radio broadcasts, and use of international front organizations. These strategies and tactics are excellently described in this impor- tant book. Not only is-Studies in Intelligence an official government magazine, but it also is published by a U.S. secret service. It therefore must be assumed that whatever is published therein represents the official yibw of the CIA or, at the very least, the point of view of CIA analysts. As an analogy, a Voice of America edito- rial, for example, must be approved by responsible State Department officials before it can be read on the air. If the CIA book review reflects the political culture of the CIA and the world in which its analysts live, then some of the egregious errors about Soviet intentions made by the CIA over the past 15 or more years, errors which have been publicly dis- cussed in the press and by the two congressional committees on intelli- gence oversight, become under- standable. One could take apart, paragraph by paragraph, this CIA book review to demonstrate its use of the rhetoric of overkill. Here I want merely to deal with the political approach of a CIA ana- lyst whose views, no matter what the CIA might say, seem to harmonize with the agency's ethos, which I pray is not that of William J. Casey, CIA director. That this review got past Mr. Casey, I can understand; he has more important problems to deal with. But isn't there somebody in his organization who has the wit, under- standing, and common decency to realize that the language used to dis- cuss the Shultz-Godson book might be better suited to a review of Hit- ler's Mein Kampf? llike this sneering, reductive sen- Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP9 -01137R000100040001-4 !r,'7e1"0 /01 .Approved For Release 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-0 WASHINGTONIAN December 1983 God and Man at ? How Does an Intelligence Agent Reconcile L Religion? The CIA Has Thought a Lot About It, and Has Concluded 137R000100040001-4 That the Bible and God Are on Their Side. By Dale Van Atta Afur the cornerstone of the Cen- tral Intelligence Agency's head- quarters in Langley, Virginia, had been laid in 1959, CIA Director Al- len Dulles cast about for a suitable inscription. What message, he won- dered, would be most apropos to grace the foyer of this $46 million monument to spying? Eventually Dulles settled on the Biblical quotation now carved in marble on one side of the entrance hall; "And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free. John VIII- XXXII ." Ironic words, given that the CIA is the one American institution whose mission often demands distortion of the truth. The agency plants misinformation in newspapers, magazines, and books throughout the world; routinely its agents misrepresent themselves to gather the in- formational gold that is the currency of espionage; it once encouraged its em- ployees to lie to Congress; and it has enshrined slippery former director Rich- ard Helms as the CIA soldier most wor- thy of emulation. That so many CIA em- ployees miss the irony of the Biblical inscription is testimony to the capacity of human beings to disregard a moral code when they're in the service of a cause or of a state. Most CIA employee recruits hear the "basic speech," during which instruc- tors, describing espionage as a worthy calling, proclaim that to be patriots they must work in silence and without ac- claim. The speech calls spying the wcdd's second-oldest profession ("and just as honorable as the first"), adding that God Himself founded the calling when Moses sent leaders of the twelve tribes to "spy out the land_ of Canaan." In a less well-known reference, CIA officials like to note that America may owe her existence to the covert action of Pierre-Augustin Caron de Beaumar- Dak Van Ana is a Jack Anderson associate specializing in national-security issuesot4iP11Ve the OA. chais, author of The Marriage of Figaro and The Barber of Seville. It was Beaumarchais who persuaded a reluctant King Louis XVI to aid the American Revolution by making it ap- pear that the French funding came from private citizen Beaumarchais, not from the French government. In a persuasive letter to the king, which is in the CIA's Historical Intelligence Collection, the dramatist presented the moral case for covert action: "Generally speaking there is no doubt that any idea or project that violates jus- tice must be rejected by a man of integ- rity. But, Sire, State policy is not the same as private morality. . . . "If men were angels, we ought no doubt to despise or even detest politics. But if men were angels, they would have no need for religion to enlighten them, or laws to govern them, or soldiers to. subdue them, and the earth, instead of being a living image.of hell, would itself be a region of heaven. But in the end we must take them as they are &Alma* ION* Q? sic. ? irt- P just among the wicked and to remain ? good among the wolves would soon be devoured along with his flock." The Frenchman's point that coven ac- don?and intelligence itself?is a "nec- essary evil" is further emphasized by CIA instructors who eulogize one of his American contemporaries, Nathan Hale, the Revolutionary War hero who, posing as a Dutch schoolteacher behind British lines, was captured and hanged for spying. His statue stands outside CIA headquar- ters today, and his words have been so inspirational to some agents that one for- mer senior official carded this Hale speech in his wallet: "I wish to be useful, and every kind of service, necessary to the public good, becomes honorable. by being necessary. If the exigencies of my coun- try demand a peculiar service, its claims to perform that service are imperious." From Hale's day until the founding of the CIA in 1947, this country had re- sisted establishing a full-time intelli- gence organization. Pearl Harbor and %if), .Witrnbbikyormeieryi overcame ericri 'reluctance. Though public ap- prove] of the CIA has never been whole- Approved For ReleitiO2Mit24 :COIXRDP90-011371; May 1983 000100040001-4 LACol Robert Mattingly Wins Heinl Award Results of the third annual Colonel Mr. J. Robert Moskin?as "the best Robert D. -Heinl, Jrward'"iiii.r;e'- article pertinent to MarineCorps his- Marine Corps History were an- tory" published in 1982. LtCol Mat- flounced on 5 April at a meeting of .. tingly is an intelligence officer sta- the Board of Directors of the Marine tioned in the Washington area. A fre- :-, _ Coms Historical Foundation.'.quent contributor to the GAZETTE, This year's prize, $1,000 and 'a' his latest GAZETTE article and book plaque, was awarded to LtCol Robert review appeared in the Mar83 issue. E. Mattingly for "Who Knew Not in addition to picking this year's Fear," an article that appeared in winner, the Historical Foundation se. Studies in Intelligence, a quarterly lected 2 of the 33 articles nominated publication of the CIA. The article for the Heinl Award for honorable recounted the World War Il exploits mention. Capt R.S. Moore's "Ideas of a Marine OSS officer, fir& Oriiz; and Direction: Building Marine who ofxraterin- Nortn Africa and Corps Amphibious Doctrine" and France behind German lines during the late BGen R.H. Williams' "Those World War II. Mattingly's article was Controversial Boards," both from chosen by a panel of three judges? the Nov82 GAZETTE, were singled out Ven F.P. Henderson, USMC(Ret), for this distinction. As announced in 1 Allan R. Millen, USMCR, and the Apr83 GAZETTE, p.12, Cant Moore recently was chosen also as the ? winner of the first MajGen Harold W. Chase Prize Essay Contest. This most recent example of his writing ability appears on p.61 of this issue. In further recognition of notewor- thy Marine-related historical writing, the Foundation presented a special award in the form of a plaque to Leatherneck magazine, commending Editor Ronald D. Lyons and the en- tire Leatherneck staff for the fine historical material that appears with regularity on its pages. 13Gen George L. Bartlett, executive director of the Marine Corps Association and pub- lisher of Leatherneck, accepted the award at a luncheon following the meeting of the Historical Founda- tion's directors. Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 41 wk:11+,prilS Approved For Release 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-0113 TW YO T. MI,: S 20 1-:,,tY ,?7 7 ? PrL,sident Carter, who ro.a.:1,:t meat after a three-r-ionth White House, the Stat. Pentagon arid the 'Agency, said: "The virtto2!lo spread of convention-1i weeccy.1.; ens stability in every regicm the Von:LI.. - Total arn2.3 sales in recent ET.; have I risen to over $20 billion, io-:d United States accounts for more t;1.1r, ! ; of this amount. lOacause we -.!..o-o:te. -L722 L; EXPORTS TO BP 'EXCFPT:ONfil! world market to such a cl72gree, 1 beileoe i! that the 1.7nitecl Status' ro4o, anri take the first step." Burden Will Lie on Those Favoring Deals, Which Must Clearly Abet' National Sacurity Interests ? By BERNARD WEINRAUB S2,Ct3 eYaw 'a-orx :1=e3 WASHINGTON, May 19 ? president Carter, citing the re.sponsibilities borne by the United States as the world's -lar2,- 1 est arms dealer, announced broad -o-a'.:ss- ores today to restrict sales of waa000.,..s abroad. They include a reduction in saes after this year, prohibitions on the developroen of advanced weapons systems sololy ten export and On an Anierican 7.-ole as tie. "first supplier" of advance ,.!-,e.c_oioo: to - coiintries seeking "new or significontiv higher combat capability," trod the tioi of production agreements with ether r countries "for significant weapons." The President said in a policy stateraeot that "the United States wilt henceforth, view an-ns transfers as an excepti000l foreign policy implement, to be used only : in instances where it can be clearly . demonstrated that the transfer contrib- utes to our national security interests." He added: "We will continue to utiltze arms transfers to promote our. security and the security of our close foleiifs, in the future, the. burden of -perst:asioa wilt be on those who favor a partlettiar arms sale, rather than those who oppi-or34 . it." . 'Historic Responsibilities' The statement made it clear that the restrictions were applicable to all nations ; except those with which the United! States has "major defense . Trouties,'!i among them the North Atlantic Treaty; Orz,raniza.tion countries, Japan, .Australia.; and New Zealand. It sal:1 the Unitodi States remain faithful to cur treaty . obligations, end v;i11 honor our ii.oitoric; ; respossi6ilities to assure the security ofi the state of Israel." Shifting Burden of Persoasion. The White House said the United State; would begin calks soon with tlie Union, Britain, France ancl C.-erroa- ny, the other major suppliers, concernirg a possible agreement on meastires..F.o: multilateral action aimed at rtoiocing sales. How the new policy d].fft,z-s hroad! from the programs of previous Admin. trations remains vague reocel-oi in the President's stated commitment to the burden of persuasion to these who favor a sale rather than to tiocse oppose it. Jessica. Tot:lin:an, who the c,!7fice of "global issues" in the Nzitionei 7R000100040001-4 to Council stiff, said at a VifCte House I a suhsiaio-ial re,.luction in sales. She briefing that the oolicy n".31111: in I :added that sales in the. 1977 ftscaI year were in the range of $8.5 biii:on to $1-0 billion. Commercial .s7:les of military equip- estimated at 53.5 billion, were placed under stricter- licensing require--; ments but largely excluded from the neW _pOliCV.. Miss Tuchmart said that those transactions generaLy did not ineiode so- phisticated equipment. . It was emphasized that 'weapons in the pipahne?estimated at 532 billion?would I not be affected, serving, Miss Tuchman said, as a "huilt-Lt cushion" for the arms: industry. She said the White House be- lieved the verall impact on the economy would be minimal. Because of what was described as thei special relationship with Israel, ? Miss! Tuchman made it plain that the policy' would largely exempt it. 'While the policy bars joint production agreements of sig- nificant weapons, for exampie,President Carter recently opened the possibility of an Israeli role in building the American F-16 fighter plane. There are joint produc- tion arrangements on the plane with four NATO nations?Denmark, Norway, Bel- gium and the Netherlands. The President's statement listed the fol- lowing controls: c"The dollar volume of new commit- ments for weapons and weapons-related items in FY 1978 will be reduced from the FY 1977 total." United States will not be the first supplier to introduce into a region newly developed, advanced weapons sys- tems which would create a new or signifi- caotly'higlier combat capability." ir.-Development or significant modifica- tion of advanced weapons systems solely for export will not be permitted." 1,1-Coproduction agreements for signifi- cant weapons, equipment and major com- ponents are prohibited. of sale for certain, weapons, equipment c"The United States, as a condition or major components, may stipulate that we will not entertain any requests for retransfers." Israel Is Largely Excluded CErnbassies and military representa- tives "will not promote the sale of arms," and weapons dealers and agents in the Unied States will work under tighter re- strictions, wirh the State Department au- thorizing all sale.s. Approved For Release 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 A proved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01 ART Art. NEW YORK TIMES ON PAGE 13 FEBRUARY 1983 Set Up a Special, High.,Level Agency By JAKE GARN F-Cutrientif:the administration of ex- port controls is far removed from the policy-making levels of Government. TRADE with the Soviet Union is in So instead of a flexible organization our national interest. In addition able to respond quickly to national to increased jobs and enhanced needs, we have a system that required earnings to be reinvested in research American exporters to make 76,077 and development, -trade ties with the export license applications in fiscal Soviet bloc countries can have an im- Year L982, with 98.8 percent eventually portant, though limited, effect toward 'being granted. With nearly every ap- . mcxierating Soviet behavior. plication approved, baw many of It seems clear that one of the factors those were in fact tumecessary7 that has thus tar prevented the soviet At ..the same time, one wonders Union from invading Poland has been ;where our export control efforts have a fear of disrupting trade relations been directed when we receive with the West. -_ gence reports 'listing the advances in This assertion can be exaggerated,. -computer, laser, electronics_antisub- however, and often has been. But it is , marine warfare, advanced avionics, I undeniable that American ?trade and TriarlY other critical technologies ! over the Soviet Union has that 'the awaits-have obtained from greatly decreased. In fact, recent his- WeStern =rats- - _ ? , tory has shown the West to be more ante L948, several Congressional -economically vulnerable to the Soviet committees_ have -erliciaed the blade- learcierof oureeport control system, A 137R000100040001-4 THE intelligence community re- port made the following conclu- sion: "The massive, well- planned and well-coordinated Soviet program to acquire Western tech- nology through combined legal and Illegal means poses a serious and growing threat to the mutual security interests of the United States and its allies. In response, the West will need to organize more effectively than it has in the past to protect its military, Industrial, commercial and scientific communities." ? Our NATO allies will not improve ? their export control operations until 1 we get our system operating as it i should. When we can offer them a sys- tem whereby East-West trade can be increased, while the control of critical technologies is enhanced, we will find them very ready to cooperate. , With an effective, high-priority agency in place, such as the Office of' . Strategic Trade, we can reduce the' fears of giving critical advantages to the Soviet Union. We will thereby have removed a major obstacle to our trade and be in a position to expand. trade with the Soviet, bloc, insuring that such trade is beneficial to Ameri- can Diaeresis. ,_ ---,t--: _ ? II. has rot been the result of the inhalant Administered by low4eval officials.,, itatare of _trade with the East, but The criticism has come to a heed with Utah, is Gar; RePabitcon of ember of-our failure to organize ad- merit mimes Imm the General Ac- isclwrman of the Senate Bank- iiquately to insure that such trade is: A:Conant' Office and .7the 'Commerce sIWI-un"n4tee. ? ? - mutually beneficial. :Department's inspector general, that _In the spring of Igazi the Athettah meat administr-atinn has remained 'intelligence community issued .a7re:' latzelytmehonsoft.Overtbspost three port evaluating the effects of the list , &cadet; . 10 years, concluding in part that "the _7 With the Itiicalt-Adminis- : Western military ? expenditures intim Act expirtng thisyear, the Sea- needed to overconie or defend against Me Banking Committee is correatlY the milltary -capabilities derived by com.aderiag a Prat:mai that 17 of my the acquisMon of Western technology tolicalgurs =II put forward to ole- far outweigh the West's earnings from vaiwthe Priority given to export ad- the legal sales to the Soviets of its'. Ministration.-Our proposal would .._ equipment ind technoiogy." Fred C. -Place_ff_ht a frifttd3' visible, indePend- ? Me, tinder Secretor" of Deferse Toin, est ..Federal agency that would have Policy, has indicated that the price:,the administration of ter export con- - tag for this failure could be tens of WI- :Int 'alwaysIts nab responsibility. bons of dollars, if not much more.- _ This agency Would be named the Of- American trade with the Soviet blac -TiceorPiategic Trade. In director. ? is fatmdering uixe the recognition of ;lam* he a memberorthelialioold se- the cost of East-West trade .coupled :_ctit*Vouncll, where he Could insure i.with the inentaticinal-inability to re- ',:thatatniiiikaiaCthtlOest levels of "...gond adequatelYm _these costs. Is* GOvetiomot wasbeingtirocced incur. 7portent national' inbiristix.:441-4t=1;e4portAOM281,:_strittOgy,.:we'beheeel - stake, and if theUrdted States is Illarlbalyzasace:tira oiernmental able to afford ever-increasing defeat* .bigh-Jaiture and yrfth COStS ?and that is Clearly the Case:? :day:today inifolveteent in export ad-. _ then a much more effective export :ministration would go a long way W.- -control system will be needed. :ward insuring that export control poll- - cies accorded with the realities of the International trading environment, and that the mistakes in the recent controls against the Soviet pipeline would not be repeated. ? Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 ARTICLE AP.?EAR Qt1 PAGE A ed For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-0" WASHINGTON TIMES 15 October 1985 137R000100040001-4 Diverse 'Euroterrorists' =tea in 'global assault' against West LePaN res s 14 NTIMES Terrorist groups in Western Europe. including some with diverse Political objectives. are cooneratina in a new phase of bombings and kill- ings directed against the United _2....ates NATO and Western industrial targets, according to intelligence reports and security analysts. The effort appears to be part of a larger, coordinated plan to "expel" U.S. interests ? both military and political ? from key areas of the world, the sources warn. The new "Euroterrorists," accord- ing to these sources, also are aiming tags against NATO installations beginning in 1984. This three-way linkage has security experts con- vinced that the Euroterrorists have embarked on a new strategy of transnational coordination and cooperation. "Their alliance is one of neces- sity" said Dr. Avigdor Haselkorn. a senior analyst at Analytical Assess- ments corp. in Los Angeles. "It is a question of tacTas, covert activities rather than ideological linkage." Robert Kupperman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and Interna- tional Studies, added: "All of this business is intended to introduce increased uncertainties within to destabilize the Atlantic alliance, NATO. None of these groups is large stir anti-U.S. sentiments and weaken enough or capable of causing Europe's defense industries, immense physical injuries. The pur- And while many European terror- pose is destablization." - ist communiques have stated that Earlier this year, Rene Audran, their enemy is "Western imperialist director of international arms sales targets;' this in effect means "U.S. at the French Defense Ministry, was imperialism," several experts said. shot and killed outside his home Earlier this year two principal ter- near Paris. A week later, Ernst Zim- rorist organizations ? West Ger- mermann, an executive with a Ger- many's Red Army Faction and man engineering firm that France's Direct Action ? issued a manufactures engines for NATO statement saying that they were cre- tanks and aircraft, was assassinated' ating a joint "political-military in Munich. front." While Direct Action claimed The RAE an outgrowth of the out- responsibility for the two attacks, lawed Baader-Meinhof gang, and officials believe that members of the Direct Action took responsibility for RAF carried out the killings, with Direct Action providing logistical support. The attacks ? large and small ? are showing no signs of letting up. Western analysts and officials point to the recent spate of bombings in West Germany, France and Belgium as indications that the terrorists are continuing to target industrial, political and NATO facilities. Last week in Brussels, for exam- ple, a car bomb went off in front of the headquarters of the Brussels gas and electricity company, shattering all of the building's windows. The Fighting Communist Cells claimed responsibility for the attack and for 15 previous bombings in Belgium. Over the weekend another blast went off outside the headquarters of the steel company. An anonymous caller told police the Fighting Com- munist Cells were responsible, but detonating a car bomb in August that killed two Americans and injured 20 others at the U.S. Rhein-Main Air Force Base in Frankfurt. The terror- ists apparently also had murdered a U.S. soldier in West Germany to obtain his identity papers to smug- gle the bomb onto the heavily- guarded base. The following month three mobile radar units at a U.S. air base in southern West Germany were destroyed by bombs. Security offi- cials blamed the RAF for the attack. The RAF and Direct Action have both used explosives stolen from Belgium. Both groups are believed to have strong ties to another terrorist group in Belgium called the Fighting Communist Cells. That group has staged a series of bomb- authorities said it could have been a "copy cat" attack perpetrated by others. In the past two weeks West Ger- many also has been hit with a spate of fire bombs. Six large department stores in Hamburg were hit, as was a car dealership and a botanical research institute in Cologne. A group calling itself the Revolutionary Cells, believed tied to the RAF, took responsibility for the blasts in Cologne and indicated that its intended target was not the botanical research institute, but the Genetic Engineering Institute next door. Analysts note that a Dutch manual for sabotage has been circulating in several West European countries. Recommending "direct action" against some 270 agents and subsid- iaries of U.S. firms in Europe, the manual draws attention to those companies involved in genetic research into seeds and crops, which it terms a capitalist plot against the Third World. It could not be immedi- ately determined if the Genetic Engineering Institute in Cologne was listed in the manual. Terrorism experts here and abroad believe that the resurgence in Euroterrorism is due in part to the failure of the "peace movement" to halt NATO's deployment of U.S. Per- shing and cruise missiles in Western Europe. Many of the anti-nuclear activ- ists, the experts say, have grown cynical and have been recruited by the more hardened terrorist groups into supporting ? and participating in ? direct attacks on military and political targets. It is believed that some of the lower yield and incendiary bomb- ings have been committed by these relatively new "recruits," perhaps as training exercises. The more lethal activities, such as the murder of the U.S. soldier and bombing at Rhein- Main AFB, are thought to have been carried out by hard-core terrorists. Behind it all is. a larger, sinister picture, some experts believe. "What we're seeing is just part of the forest;' said Yonah Alexander, a ter- rorism analyst at Georgetown CSIS. Euroterrorism "is a global assault against the West and its interests." It Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4 7777,) 1,