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April 6, 1986
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20Alkk Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R0001001 RADIO IV REPORTS, INC. 4701 WILLARD AVENUE, CHEVY CHASE, MARYLAND 20815 (301) 656-4068 FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS STAFF mapAm Face the Nation STATION WDVM-TV CBS Network DATE April 6, 1986 11:30 A.M. Ow Washington, D.C. SUBJECT International Terrorism LESLEY STAHL: This was a week when more innocent Americans were murdered by terrorist bombs, a week when the United States fell victim to random violence and felt again the frustration oF our inability to prevent, contain, or retaliate against what President Reagan called "these barbaric, wanton actions." West Berlin. A terrorist bomb explodes in a discotheque frequented by American GIs. The bomb kills two, one an American, and injures 190. Athens, TWA Flight 840. A terrorist bomb explodes on landing. Four passengers killed, all of them American. me. MAN: Who would kill a mother and a child? It's beyond MAY ELIAS MANSOUR: I did not do it. STAHL: Investigators believe this woman, May Elias Mansour, who carried a Lebanese passport, may have planted the explosive. Eyewitnesses say she sat in Seat 10F, where the bomb later went off. An anonymous caller in Beirut claimed revenge by the Arab Revolutionary Cells for America's military actions against Libya. Colonel gaddafi denied any involvement, but U.S. officials say they hold him responsible. The Administration is bracing for more acts of terror, placing U.S. diplomats and U.S. facilities abroad under unusually high states of alert. And with reports that explosives can OFFICES IN: WASHINGTON D.C. ?NV YORK e .LOS ANGELES ? TiaR PRINCIPAL CITIES Approved Forlielease 20oirizioo : Clik-Fa596C01f37#6601 N170004 Material suppled by Radio TV Reporfs. Inc. may be used for file and reference purposes only, It may not be reproduced. sold Of publicly demonsttorea or exhibited. Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R00010 WASHINGTON LETTER April 1986 JACK ANDERSON'S =MU= MT= ASK JACK ANDERSON In response to my report on Iran-backed ville, Ala., subscriber writes: "It is prime minister of Iran was assassinated shah put on the throne. Do you suppose wind and not reap the whirlwind?" The reader is referring to Mohammed Mossadegh, who ruled Iran in the early 1950s -- an eccentric Iranian nationalist, frail, hairless, wrinkled, given to weeping in public, who apppeared preposterous to Occidentals but struck a deep chord in the Iranian psyche. ._1.1cl8:22ackedcoutdici.rx:IL assassinate and brou ht-Sha Mo amme Rez power in lInt I am one of the few who investigated Mossadegh's overthrow. While this political coup 33 years ago helps explain Iran's hatred of America, it is no justification for the worldwide terrorism of Ayatollah Khomeini. terrorism t a Hunts- now admitted that the by our own CIA and the that we can sow the DICTATOR WATCH.: IS KHADAFY REALLY CRAZY? I have read secret psychological profiles which portray_ Libya's Muammar Khadafy as erratic and unpredictable, with abrasive convictions that smack of solitary brooding among the dunes. But none of the reports suggested he was crazy. He appears to have been the product of three basic molding influences. As a nomad of the Sirtic desert, he grew up in a region influenced by the Sanusi, a proselytizing sect that taught a puritanical Islam and inculcated a fierce hatred of things foreign. As a bedouin, nourished on campfire-bred tribal memories and antipathies, he bore the psychic marks of the Italian onslaught on the bedouins which reached its peak in the early 1930s, the decade before Khadafy's birth. As an Arab adolescent in the 1950s, he found his hostil- ities, frustrations and hopes given gripping expression and purposeful synthesis in the broadcasts and deeds of Egypt's late leader, Gamal Abdel Nasser. Khadafy zealously worshiped and romanticized Nasser's mythic image as only a youth can. Nasser became young Khadafy's model in both goals and tactics, in the most methodical sense. Footnote: Pry?sident Reagan has ordered the CIA to mount a_ covert operation to overtErow Khadafv, Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 ARTICLE APPEAtrved For Release 2001Welfitg0-0i 137R000 ON PAG ON THE ROAD TO THE SUMMIT Weinberger keeps getting s u out By NILES LATHEM Washington Bureau Chief HELSINKI. DEFENSE Secretary Cas- par Weinberger has been cut out of the Geneva sum- mit after losing a series of epic battles inside the Rea- gan administration over U.S. arms control policy. The most telling evidence that Weinberger is on the outside is seen here by the fact that there is not a sin- gle representative of the Pentagon in the U.S. dele- gation traveling with Sec- retary of State George Shultz on his mission to Moscow today. Administration officials say President Reagan has privately rejected a re- quest from Weinberger that he be included in the U.S. delegation traveling to the Geveva summit in three weeks. Weinberger's once con- siderable clout has dimin- ished because of his contin- ued ?position to U.S. arms control policies advocated by Shultz and the increas- ingly powerful national se- curity adviser. Robert McFarlane. Insiders say Weinberger was bitterly opposed to the White House offer of a counter-proposal to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorba- chev's 50 percent arms re- duction package. The defense chief argued that there is nothing in the proposal that merited? a U.S. response other than a -rhetorical one." In fact, Reagan's final decision to offer a counter- proposal to Moscow last week was made while Weinberger and his arms control adviser, Asst. Secre- tary of Defense Richard Perie, were atttending a NATO conference in Brus- sels. The arms control defeat for Weinberger comes on the heels of equally bitter losses on the Pentagon budget earlier this year and leaves him alone In- creasingly frustrated. Could a resignation be far behind? * * * CIA Director William Casey: is making some of his own secret- prepare- tions for the Geneva sum- mit in the murky under- world of U.S. Intelligence. Cigev. wlp Is (Wetly en- trenched as one of Presi- dent magan's most influential advisers, held a series of-highlt secret face. to-lace timelines with KGB cletectors Ole( Gordiebszy sad YurI Dzurchenko In thhilirat month to get first- Information about %mist leader Mikhail dor- bachev. Dsnrchenho. the No. 5 man in the KGB until his defection two months ago, has reportedly provided "valuable insight" into Gorbachev and his sudden rise to power. Dsurchenho, one of the most prised defectors in U.S. history, watched Gor- bachev rise from a special vantage point because of his close ties to former Soviet leader and. KGB boss Yuri Andropov. Gordiebssy, the former KGB station chief In Lon- don who defected to Britain earlier this year, also had extensive dealings with Gorbachev last December during the latter's widely publicizied tour of London. Casey flew secretly to Louden four weeks juip to interview Gordiebstv, sources said. Thiiiaterlal Casej col- lected from theme rare en- counters will apparently be seine Into a lengdy C.I.A. profile on Gror6achev that will be didivered to the White House as Dart of the final preparation for Rea- gan's showdown In Geneva. * * * FIVE days after the White House rolled out the red carpet for four visiting Soviet journalists, giving them the first exclusive in- teview with a U.S. Presi- dent since the Kennedy era, a feud is erupting be- tween the press offices of the two nations. Insiders say that mem- bers of Secretary of State Shultz delegation are fum- ing over Soviet denial of a visa for NBC correspond- ent Anne Garrets, who had been schedueled to fly with Shultz to Moscow this week. Miss Garrets, a former correspondent in Moscow, had filed a series of hard- hitting reports on the Soviet Union that angered the Kremlin. A U.S. official said the denial was unjustified, especially in view of criti- cal comments that the four Soviet journalists who in- terviewed Reagan made 25X1 A about the President in the U.S. media last week. Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 II"Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137000I JACK ANDERSON'S EIZERMIT aTf LeTUM October 1985 Update EXCERPTED ASK JACK ANDERSON A Los Angeles, Calif., subscriber writes r!9arding the abandon- ment of the Miskito Indian fighters in Nicaragua: "You know as well as I do that Congress cut off the funds to the CIA and that Congress and not the CIA is to be blamed for this tra- gedy. Why don't you place the blame where it belorm....4.namelyx on liberals such as you who have been critical of American sup- port of the Freedom Fighters in Nicaragua?" True, Congress discontinued aid to the Contra forces in Nicaragua after May, 1984. However, in June of this year Congress voted $27 million in humanitarian aid (food, medicine and clothing). But my reporter in Central America found several weeks later that the Misura forces (including Miskitos) still were receiving poor medical care and food supplies; several had not received adequate medical treatment since 1983-84. (Perhaps I should add that I have been a sharp critic of the Marxist regime in Nicaragua. I support Presi- dent Reagan's aims if not all his methods.) FOREIGN OUTLOOK: PASS THE AMMUNITION Mal de mer. The French government belatedly admitted its responsibility for the sinking of the anti-nuclear protest ship Rainbow Warrior, in which one man died. My intelli- gence sources report a disturbing "So what?" Atituae among U5. and aill.ed intelligence circles toward what can only be describea as state-sponsored terrorism. e feeling seems to be that the French had every right to take drastic action to protect what they viewed as their national interests. If this is indeed the attitude of responsible intelligence offia-517C- that's pie-fty rem. Continued Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 ARTICLE A ii Od For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R0 ON PAGE - WASHINGTON POST 25 August 1985 Jack Anderson and Dale Van Atta Romania's Defiance No Soviet bloc nation has been more inde- pendent than Romania. Its autonomy was dra- matized last summer when the Romanian dele- gation proudly marched to the cheers of the Olympics crowd in Los Angeles?alone among Russia's allies in refusing to join the boycott. The maverick responsible for this show of defiance is Nicolae Ceausescu, who has ruled Romania with an iron fist since 1965. Yet many Romanians revere him as an indestructible na- tional asset. The fact of his mortality, however, has been of increasing interest to the CIA. which has been sending too-secret reports about Ceau- sescu to President RParig. The dispatches coming out of Bucharest in- dicate that the 67-year-old leader is dying of prostate cancer. According to one classified prediction, he is not expected to live until spring. The key to White House interest in Ceau- sescuis found in one paragraph of a top-secret CIA profile: "Although the great powers all, play an important_part in Ceausescu's thinking,. he has been very interested in improving with the . He -believes Romania, which has an 830-mile border with the USSR, needs powerful friends, if only for the psychological boost they can provide." This posture also gives him higher approval ratings at home. "Ceausescu enjoys a igreatj - . 0 ? 4 profile says. "His people are highly nationalis- tic, proud of Romania's continued defiance of the Russians and admire his ability to exploit great-power rivalries to promote Romanian na- tional interests." Aside from refusing to go along with the Olympic boycott, Ceausescu publicly opposed the 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia, the Vietnamese takeover of Cambodia in 1979, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and both Soviet and American development of space weapons. When Ceausescu took control of the Romanian Communist Party 20 years ago, the Soviets in- correctly assumed he would be a loyal puppet. After all, he had joined the then-illegal party at the age of 14, and he was scarcely out of his teens before he was thrown into jail for eight years and intermittently tortured for his politics. But Ceausescu shocked the Soviets a mere four years after he came to power by becom- ing the first post-World War II East European leader to host a U.S. head of state when he received President Richard Nixon in Bucharest. The following year, he flew to New York for the 25th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations. He was later received by presidents Ford and Carter at the White House and once took a two-week tour of the United States. Ironically, the popularity he has amassed in Bucharest is indirectly the result of his repres- sive rule. "He has managed to carve out a mea- sure of independence from Nfoscow, Th because-fie has insisted on maintaining a. rigid, - orthodox communist system at home." the CIA _sas, But the old man has been slowing down. Close examination even of touched-up photos in Romanian newspapers show he is deteriorat- ing. He is losing weight and appears tired. He has missed key meetings and even volleyball games, his favorite form of relaxation. The word in Bucharest is that his wife, Elena, is. running the government. Like most despots, Ceausescu is a nepotist. His wife serves as first deputy prime minister, head of Romania's scientific policy-making body and member of three of the four principal committees of the Romanian Communist Party. One son, Nicu, has already been groomed as his successor. Another son, a? daughter, three brothers, a sister and two- brothers-in-law have also been given top, Romanian honors or positions to ensure a Ceausescu dynasty. Meanwhile the CIA_predicts, Ceausescu will. continue his shrewdly calculated defiance of_ the Soviets. Conclude the analysts; -Ceausescu knows that the Soviets will tol- erate Romanian recalcitrance only as long as ? they do not see it as a serious threat. [His] suc- cess in following his chosen course is a measure of his ability to judge correctly the limits of Soviet tolerance. In playing this course, he is always running the risk of miscal- culation." Approved For Release 2001/12/05.: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 Approved For Release 2001/12/05: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 r.Trtntalturg. 1 Political Forces Come Under New Scrutiny Of Psychology NEW YORK TIMES 2 April, 1985 By DANIEL GOLEMAN I N a recent rapprochement, psychologists and politi- cal scientists are merging disciplines to form a new field, political psychology. The mutual interest . comes from psychologists who are applying their skills to the political arena and political scientists who are coming to appreciate the importance of psychology in the world of politics. Political psychology is still in the main an academic discipline rather than an active force in international di- plomacy or domestic politics. But current research indi- cates that the discipline can yield valuable information about Soviet behavior, for example, and the problems in- herent in a military policy based on deterence. ' Proponents of the discipline assert that it has the potential of bringing greater clarity and soundness to gov- ernment decisions and perhaps even of improving the ? ! manner in which governments perceive and deal with each other. Much of the new psychological interest has centered on international politics. "There has been a crucial dimension missing" in poli- tics, according to Roger Walsh, a psychiatrist who wrote the book "Staying Alive: The Psychology of Human Survival" (New Science Li- brary). "Crises between nations have been viewed in political, eco- ? nomic and military terms, but very little has been said about the fact that these problems are also expressions of psychological needs and fears, too." . , PsyChologal elements have al- ways been conspicuously at work in - - international relations, but now more , _ . ? and more psychologists themselves : are scrutinizing these factors. The issue of deterrence is a i case in point. The MX missile, whatever its military use- fulness may be, is often seen as a weapon whose impor- tance is largely symbolic, more a tool for manipulating ! perceptions than for fulfilling a real military need. 1111111111111 Process of International relations has special. allure for research. Steven Kull, a psychologist at the Center for Interna- tional Security and Arms Control at Stanford University, said that to make a symbolic weapon potent, politicians must act as if they truly believed that it was a genuine military tool. A-psychological game ensues in which they must make public pronouncements that do not agree with their own military assessments. Along the way they may find themselves engaging in a kind of psychological "dou- blethink," managing to hold two antithetical views at the same time. "Pentagon officials have even publicly admit- ted this doublethink, but the public seems to have taken it on, too," Dr. Kull said. "Everyone seems to reconcile the paradox by imagining that somewhere else there is a -mass of people for whose benefit it is crucial to maintain the illusion that we can gain advantage by building these weapons." Political psychologists argue that the clear aware- ness of such mental maneuvering allows for more realis- tic decision making in response to it. A weapon system that Is clearly symbolic, for Instance, ! would call for a different response ' than one that had a real military mis- sion. I In recent years, a growing list of eminent psychologists and psychia- trists have become concerned with In- ternational relations. Notable among 1 them are B. F. Skinner of Harvard, ! who applies behaviorism to the causes of the arms race; Robert Jay Litton of Yale, who has applied pay- - choanalytic insights to understanding ? the impact of nuclear weapons, and ? Jerome Frank of Johns Hopkins Uni- ? versity, who wrote the book "Sanity and Survival in the Nuclear Age," an ? early effort to treat world politics in a . psychological tramewofk. In the 50's, Erich Fromm exemplified a tradition in psychoanalysis, dating back to the early Freudians, which saw an portant role for psychoanalysis in so- cia] criticism. Among the growing number of scholars currently en- . gaged in the field, Herbert Heiman of Harvard is applying principles of con- - flict resolution to the basic disagree- meat-among Arabs and Israelis in the 1 Middle East. I Few political scientists, until now, ! have been receptive to the psycholog- - I ical approach. "Most political scien- tists are thin on psychology, while most psychologists are naive about international politics, but each can _ profit enormously from the other,". said Robert Jervis, a political scien- tist at Columbia University who has been at the forefront of the merger of . the- two fields. Still Viewed- as Untested - - !" While psychologists haVe een quick to embrace politics as a domain , where their expertise could be useful, I political scientists as a whole have been more reticent. "Although politi- cal psychology is now seen as a legiti- mate topic in poitical science," Dr. , Jervis added, "it is still viewed as untested." Nevertheless, when a pro.: Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIAQ.e_40 scholars to 111004s711001 -0 c,otetc6 25X1A Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R0001. CBS EVENING NEWS 11 May 1984 RATHER: Fresh reports tonight that Konstantin Chernenko, top leader of the Soviet Union, is ill. The 72-year-old Chernenko has been in office only three months, succeeding the late Yuri Andropov, who died at age 69. State Department correspondent Bill McLaughlin has been checking these news reports of Chernenko's illness. MCLAUGHLIN: Well, Dan, there's certainly no indication that Chernenko is not completely in charge of the Soviet Union, but intelligence sources do know he has emphysema, a lung disease, and it may be getting worse. An indication of that may have come yesterday. Sources in Moscow saw him as he welcomed the Spanish king and queen. He had to be helped to meet them by two body guards, who actually supported him, and during the toasts, his voice faltered and his hands shook. Today again, Chernenko looked quite ill as he welcomed Portuguese Communist leaders. RATHER: There's no indication--now I want to emphasize this or at least get it clear--there's no indication that Chernenko's grip on the leadership of the Soviet Union is loosening because of what appears to be this worsening of his illness we've known about for some time. MCLAUGHLIN: No, not at all, Dan, but certainly his health does seem to be deteriorating from what we can see, the physical evidence. RATHER: Thank you very much, Bill McLaughlin, in Washington. Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R ARTICLE AP VI PAGE Rowland Evans And Robert Novak A Soviet Fear ampaign Multiple firings of six unarmed Soviet missiles_ believed to be intermediate-range S.S_D3 stunned US. intelligence early last month, heightening concern that massive Soviet_nagt1 ecises in the North Atlantic rthesigneK1 lantiinid-sk_theReat Officials here differ whether :the United States was notified about the first-ever launchings. But there is universal agreement about these aspects Of the SS20 surprise and the naval games : both were .unpreeedented in size., arid scope; both fit new Soviet fear tactic:9 aim-ad:at Western EuroPe-..L.., That, *tends a slimmer and fill of ex- traordinary Soviet maneuvers. The Russians want to regain the initiative kat last Decem- ber when NATO installed its new Pershing II is rnsdles. They also want to undermine Presi- dent Reagan as leader of the West and defeat his reelection bid. That he seems benignly? in- different may be less a sign of a president's.strength than of a candidate's folly.Multiple firings of unarmed SS20s violate no Soviet treaty undertaking. But the such, den discovery that the missiles were on their way north from launching sites, believed west of the Urals, came as ashock. That shock equaled the . tremor : that ? surged through the Pentagon when the De- fense Intelligence Agency learned .that Delta-class Soviet strategic submarines-- armed with nuclear-tipped strategic ballistic missiles?had sailed with the fleet into the open Atlantic. "It was a surge of Deltas, the first ever," one high-level official told us.- - This, too, happened in early April. The Del- tas have occasionally sailed far from borne, but never before have they left their base near Murmansk on the Kola Peninsula in "a surge" to join fleet maneuvers in the open ocean. Top strategists in the Reagan administra- tion seldom agree on all points, but there is strong consensus that, as one top official told us, the Kremlin has made a decision to "turn up the fear factor to the max." That implies an ominous shift in Soviet policy to- ward the United States and its sometimes W r reluctant of-uno a Fo-Kerdease 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 WASHINGTON POST 9 May 1984 2b).C1A playing its military power, whi to stop NATO rearmament, it is trying to ter- rorize by muscle-flexing. The shift from Slavic caution to Great Russian chauvinism seems connected with , the -Kremlin's power vacuum. That vacuum was not filled by the elevation of Konstantin Chemenko, Leonid Brezhnev's aging crony who had been ignominiously passed over when Brezhnev died. The soundness of Kremlinologist doubts that Chemenko ever would exert real Dower was confirmed when the Centrid_Irrtellige_nce Aggncyjmished win-depth atudy_of Cher- nenko's health. It found him seriously dis- ? abled by an emphesyma-like lung disease, compounded by circulatory problems. _ That opened the door of real power for the. hardest, of Kremlin hard-liners,. Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, and his collabora- tor, Defense Minister Dmitri Ustinov, who are now calling all turns of Soviet foreign policy. The result has heighteaed the Soviet mili- tary posture worldwide. In Central Aga, an awesome aggregation of Soviet bombers Man- I bled, partly for, action in Afghanistan. Naval maneuvers along the Vietnam coast signaled China not to cozy up too close to Reagan. It worked. Reagan's speeches were censored, and Chinese military men were excluded from meetings and festivities during his visit Not so clear is how Soviet intimidation af- fects US. allies in Europe, but signals are troublesome. During Italian Foreign Minis- ter-Giulio Andreotti's visit in Moscow with Cherne.nko, he was warned point-blank by Gromyko not to forget that the Soviet Union ' could create "a Pompeii" out of all Italy. Days later, Italian Prime Minister Bettina Craxi suggested a possible moratorium in the NATO nuclear buildup. . -? Desiring to shed all bellicosity and appear a man of peace in seeking-reelection, Reagan may be making a mistake by ignoring the Kremlin's shift. Asked at his last press con- ference about the Soviet naval exercise, he made light of it as "nothing more" than the. usual springtime war games. More than most, President Reagan should know his remark was nonsense. Treating voters as too delicate to know the truth could be downright dangerous by inadvert- ently helping.4..the Gromyko-Ustinov cern- .! paign to overawe the West. elf49, Neva Group Chicago, Inc, Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000 AMI CLE .01i PAGE WASH I NGTON POST 27 Apri.1 1984 44.-1. or.,...1:Pi-lf4s-94, a _.. qr.' . _... --. .... ..?41-.4.,. ....,..?;,,,,....?.e-,,.., Hirohito Held In Awe by CIA, Japanese Public When Emperor Hirohito steps out on the balcony of his palace in downtown Tokyo this Sunday to greet thousands of adoring Japanese on his 83rd birthday, there'll be a CIA agent in the crowd?probably with binoculars. Ifs one of the ways the CIA's Life Sciences Division can observe- first- hand how the diminutive emperor looks. There have been recent hints that his health is failing. Though he holds no direct polit- ical power, Hirohito has been a fa- vorite subject of CIA surveillance for decades. My associate Dale Van Atta, who was recently in Tokyo, has had access to some of the secret CIA profiles of the emperor. They reveal that the CIA's remorseless analysts, like the Japanese people, hold this aged, bespectacled little man in awe. "Despite all he has been through since he assumed the throne in 1926," notes the CIA, "Emperor Hirohito projects innocence and sin- cerity." The CIA describes him as "a shy, retiring man." _ He and his 81-year-old empress like to watch soap operas on TV and putter in the imperial_gattiens. "Both the emperor and empress [enjoy pur- suing] their personal interests?ma- rine biology and botany for the em- peror, art for the empress,' states another profile, this one stamped "Confidential." In fact, Hirohito is the world's chief authority on jelly- fish and related creatures, with 16 books to his credit. According to the CIA, the emper- or "is briefed regularly on domestic and foreign affairs." Yet he "plays no part in policy decisions." There have been proposals to make him chief of state, but "most Japanese would not like to see him take on any more than his present symbolic role.' ? The CIA acknowledges "a few complaints from Younger Japanese" about Hirohito, -but little audible grumbling about the cost of main- taining .the imperial household, now more than $40 million a year. "By and large," states the CIA, "most Japanese still view the emper- or with considerable _respect and af- fection? One reason: He 'has trav- eled widely among the people, some- thing a Japanese emperor had never done before." At first, the Japanese had 'grave doubts about the image the emperor would project' in the United States. But his reception during his 1975 visit to this country "greatly ex- ceeded even the most optimistic Jap- anese expectations? _The CIA 'believes the visit contrib- uted'significantly to popular Pap- _ anese] support for continued &op- eration with the U.S. [and] opening an era of 'good feelings' in anese relations." _ Characteristically, Hirohito gs. ' pressed his approval of America tfot in words but with a gesture.For years afterward, he wore a Mickey Mouse watch that be picked upLin Disneyland. _ Hirohito is the 124th emperorrin Japan's unbroken, 2,644-yearsold imperial line. When he ascended)10 the throne in 1926, he -was:ese "tenno"?the 'emperor of heaven.". The Japanese considered him a god. When the Japanese warlords sought his approval for tbe-attacicon, .1 Pearl Harbor, according to on-. count, Hirohito voiced his appat'ent disapproval by reciting a 31-syllable poem composed by his grandfailiii, extolling universal brotherhood 'and asking: "Why, then, do winds 464 - Water of conflict ....disturb pe:ice among us?" ? The warlords went ahead valh their plans anyway, and older Arr.(e,r- icans will remember Hirohito al_Fa villain in propaganda cartoons, With buck teeth and Coke-bottle eye- glasses, features that took their place with Adolf Hitler's mustache iind Hermann Goering's potbelly. The emperor was able to mike . this image after the war. Today, Hirohito remains the only?and Vet- haps the unlikeliest,,survivorv-4 World War II's leaders. . - Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP.90-01137R000100170001-0 Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R0001 ARTICLE APPEARED , ? CIA No Longer Well Informed About Kremlin The press has reported, quite cor- rectly, that U.S. intelligence was caught asleep at the switch by the death of Kremlin leader Yuri V. An- dropov arid his replacement by Kon- stantin U. Chernenko. An insider admitted to me that the CIA wasn't sure whether Andro- pov was dead or alive during his last days. The first signs of his passing were noticed by The Washington Post's Moscow correspondent, Dusko Doder. The Post alerted U.S. gov- ernment officials several hours be- fore the first intelligence sightings reached Washington.? After Chernenko had already been anointed, the CIA's Kremlinologists were still predicting that Mikhail Gorbachev would be the new Soviet leader. Not until Chernenko ap- peared as head of the funeral com- mission did the CIA conclude that he had emerged as chief comrade. _He had been a low fourth ,on its list of likely prospects. ? How could America's multibillion- dollar intelligence apparatus be scooped by a lone journalist? Does 'this mean our intelligence system can't be relied upon to monitor the WASHINGTON POST 27 February 1984 decisions and actions of the Soviet leadership? In search of the answers, I exam- ined more than 50 classified docu- ments, ranging from "Confidential" to "Top-Secret Umbra." I also con- sulted top CIA officials, both past and present " They concede that the CIA has no direct pipelines into the Politburo and few informants behind the grim, fortress-like walls of the Kremlin. They blame this on former president Jimmy Carter; who virtually wiped out the CIA's human-intelligence network within the Soviet Union. One insider, trying to explain Car- ter's action, suggested that he prob- ably believed "high-tech intelligence had made old-fashioned intelligence obsolete." Another source just shrugged and said: "I think Carter felt this kind of espionage 'was im- moral? Yet despite its blind spots, the United States has the best techno- logical intelligence in the world. U.S. agencies can intercept messages, break codes, monitor conversations and photograph just about every- thing that appears on the Soviet sur- face. Some photographs are detailed enough to identify a bolt in a Soviet tank. Because the old men of the Krem- lin have been in power for decades, the 'CIA has also had time to inves- tigate their backgrounds and analyze their behavior thoroughly. The CIA computers can summon up detailed information about any Soviet leader. The agency has been able to diag- nose their health, for example, with uncanny accuracy. Last July--long before the world had any inkling that Andropov was seriously ill?I was able to write: "Andropov's days are numbered, and he knows it My CIA sources are bet- ting that he will die within a year. That's how bad his - health is. . Anciropov's tenure as top man in the Kremlin could be the shortest in Soviet history." Classified CIA reports, which de- scribed Andropov down to the miss- ing part of his right eyebrow, warned that he would be "a formidable ad- versary," skilled in political intrigue, perfectly willing to use violence and _ terror, dedicated _to Marxist dogma, "ruthless," and "cunning." In contrast; top-secret reports de- scribe Chernenko as a master bu- reaucrat, skilled at "handling paper work.' Unlike Andropov, who sought to put his own stamp on the Polit- buro, Chernenko is expected to func- tion more as "chairman of the board." In the words of the CIA, he'll be "responsible for seeing to it that Politburo decisions are carried out? that is, as the top civil servant of the Politburo, not as its master." Given his advanced age and frail health (he's 72 and is reported to have emphysema), Chernenko will be another interim leader. Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R0001001 UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL 17 February 1984 WAVERLY, IOWA Iowa-Choice American voters choose their leaders by deciding which candidate most closely mirrors their own personality, a study by a Wartburg College professor has found. "If you feel the candidate has qualities you admire and like to see in yourself, you'll probabaly support him regardless of whether he is a Democrat or Republican," said Dan Thomas, an associate professor of political science. In his study, Thomas said, he asked a group of voters to determine what their "ideal selves" were and then asked them to rate presidential candidates from the 1976 election. He based his comparisons on a list of 50 words ranging from "old fashioned" to "shrewd." The voters first picked the words that applied to themselves then chose words that applied to Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. Results showed voter support went to the candidate with whom the voter felt a closer identification. "The subjects decided how closely each of those adjectives described their Ideal selves," he said. "Their ideal selves influenced their political support." Thomas has authored a number of reports on _political behavior and was once sgmght by the CIA to__work_up personality assessments of foreign leaders. He declined, saying he was reluctant to leave the academic world for the CIA. ? Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 111I 11 Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R1 artaum QV WASHINGTON POST 11 August 19 83 Long-Distance Analysis Finds Castro Changing Fidel Castro, the unruly ruler ? of Ck.iba and the godfather of Marxist revolutions in the Americas, has been undergoing long-distance psy- choanalysis by U.S. intelligence ex- perts for almost a quarter .of a cen- ? wry. Along with the gray hairs that are overtaking his beard, he has dis- played certain changes in behavior. For instance: ? Once a boozer and womanizer, Castro has now become something of an ascetic. Vodka and rum no longer seem to give him the same stimula- tion. He has even cut down on his beloved cigars. And the women who once shared his private life ' have died. His work has become his true . mistress, the psychological analysts have concluded. ? On July 26, 1953, Castro led a group of students in a dangerous, FjrnosI suicidal attack on a govern- ment barracks. The failed attempt resulted in death for most of the reb- els a.nd imprisonment for Castro. To the analysts, the suicidal nature of the attack demonstrated his willing- ness to take desperate risks. But he has now become more canny and cautious. At the massing of U.S. mil- itary power in Central America, for example, he began sending up con- ciliatory smoke signals. ? In the 1950s, Castro burst into the communist world still an un- formed entity, a flamboyant figure among drab, almost anonymous Marxist leaders, an unguided missile apt to veer off in any trajectory. He chafed over the rigidity of _commu- nist dogma and bristled when the Kremlin tried to tell him What to do. But today he is a hard-bitten, cal- culating communist who is regarded by the Kremlin as a most depend- able puppet. ? The grim communist experience, however, has not put out the fire in Castro. He remains a looming pres- ence on 1..he international scene by virtue of a dramatic flair and a ge- -nius for propaganda. He has a ten- dency to present himself to the world in a series of triumphal speeches, with rhetoric that ? raises the hair on the back of the neck. - The psychoanalysts admire his incredible memory for detail. He rumbles and roars for, hours at a time, artfully composing his speeches as he goes, without notes or Tele- PrompTer. He has the oratorical artillery, the brains and the guile to create a great deal of mischief when- ever a fortuitous conjunction of - events arises. Castro's personal life fascinates - the analysts. He was born from a union of a middle-class man and the Castro family maid. He went to a Roman Catholic school, then to uni- versity and law school, where he re- portedly carried a gun and was a campus bully. He was also something of a rake. He drank heavily, smoked great quantities of cigars and had many transient love affairs. Though -he never married, he fathered a son by an unidentified mistress. Castro had at least one lasting, intimate relationship. Celia Sanchez was close to him in the earliest days. of the revolution, and became both lover and confidante. Sanchez died in 1980, and there are reports that Castro has never completely recovered from her - death. Not only was she a human- izing influence on him, but he now has few people he can trust the way he trusted Sanchez. The only other woman known to be close to Castro, Santa Maria, committed suicide the same year, reportedly in despair over the direc- tion the revolution had taken. Two things have. dominated Cas? tro's life: his overwhelming ambition and his hatred of the United States. More than two decades of hostility and plotting by U.S. presidents have helped to give Castro an exalted sta- tus among Yankee-hating nations that he would not otherwise have. So while he hates us, he depends on our enmity to further his dreams of big- ger things. Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 ? _Apprizii0d: For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137 r 7771 7 APPEARED. 7-1 THE NE?.;7 YORK TIMES MAGAZINE PAGE. 30 May 1983 ON THE COUCH IN HE CAPITAL By Sandra McElwain* Washington has the deserved reputation of being a hard-working, early-rising town, and among the earli- est risers are some of the approximately 1,200 psychia- trists in the metropolitan area who minister to the powerful and famous before their official working days begin_ ? By 6 A.M., just as dawn begins to break over the Poto- mac, long black limousines and some more modest vehicles begin delivering policy makers and pundits for 45-minute sessions with their therapists. Nowhere is this early morning activity more frenetic than at 3000 Connecticut Avenue, an apartment building across from the National Zoo. Referred to locally as the "Freud Hilton," it houses 50 or more psychiatrists, psy- chologists and clinical social workers, more than there are in some states ? Wyoming, for instance ? and is the home of the District of Columbia Insitute of Mental Hygiene, a private clinic that treats lower-income peo- ple. When highly recognizable figures ? politicicinc lob- byists, journalists ? meet in its elevators, hallways or waiting rooms, they studiously ignore one another. They may have rubbed shoulders, even exchanged words, at cocktail or dinner parties the night before, but at 3000 Connecticut Avenue a flicker of recognition sel- dom passes between them. Ironically and simultaneously, Washington is a city of celebrity and anonymity, abounding in political and media heavies and hundreds of unknown but often influ- ential career bureaucrats. Both conditions create their own psychological problems, compounded by the politi- cal necessity of secrecy when difficulties reach the stage where professional help is needed. Seeing a thera- pist in Washington can be a touchy business for influen- tial individuals who fear that their futures can be thwarted, even aborted, by the revelation. So great is the fear, several psychotherapists report, that some patients covered by Government _health in- Sandra McElwaine is a Washington-based writer. surance prefer to pay for their visits OUT .of private funds rather than have their bosses know they are -under- going treatment. 'When Sena- Triomas F. Eagleton con- firmed stories that he had been hospitalized and re- ceived electric shock treat- ments for nervous exhaustion and depression during the 1050's, he was deemed a polit- ical. liability and dropped as George McGovern 's running mate in 1972. And Daniel Elis- berg, the former consultant in the -Departments of De- fense and State and the Rand Corporation who leak "The Pentagon Papers" ,,tt The New 'York Times, became a target of the Watergate "plumbers" who broke into his psychiatrist's office in 1971 in a.n attempt to obtain his file and use the material in it to discredit in a high-powered city of super achievers: many of whose careers depend on an untarnished public image, a climate of fear surrounds any form of psychiatric treat- ment, Politicians are afraid to admit they have psycholog- ical problems because the knowledge might shatter the confidence of the voters back borne; members of the W-nite House, Cabinet and sub-Cabi- net staffs are afraid it might lose them their jobs; lawyers, their clients; join-nalists, their credibility. - Most vulnerable, perhaps, are intelligence operatives, whose secretive jobs enforce an isolation that often robs mem of the ability to trust anyone, even menabers of their families. When they re- quire treatment, their cases are handled by a small group of doctors with special se- curiry clearances who protect the agents' identities and any information they might re- yeal . But the capital also abounds with persons privy to national and international se- crets of lesser sensitivity, persons whose decisions often affect the futures of corpora- tions, institutions and mil- lions of individuals at home and abroad. The burden of re- sponsibility can become un- bearable, particularly when piled on top of existing per- / problems. *** * * * * The mental-health prob- lems of Foreign Service offi- cers are dealt with by in- house State Department psy- chotherapists, who are re- quired to pass the same kind of security Clearance as other personnel in sensitive posi- tions. Before diplomats are sent overseas, a staff of men- tal-health professionals is available to prepare them and their families to live as normal a life abroad as possi- ble. In addition, psychiatrists are headquartered overseas in six regional areas, each of which has a program tailored to fit the circumstances of the particular iocale. In general, the troubles they deal with are the same as anywhere else ? depression, school problems, family difficulties ? but now they must also deal with problems arising from fears of terrorism, bombings and assassination. CO.N7ZYLTD Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R00041111111 THE W.ASHTNGTON POST 15 May 1983 ? ARTICLE ON PACT, 5-7 Jack Anderson A King in Danger U.S. policy toward Morocco's King Hassan has grown more openly cordial during the Reagan administration, with the airn of strengthening an old and trusted ally. But this may prove to be a mistake. In the subtle world of Arab politics, Uncle Sam's warm embrace could be the kiss of death for Hassan. , It's known as the "Sadat syndrome," ! after the late Egyptian president, who ? lost popularity among his countrymen. and other Arab statts by becoming too cozy with the United States. There is also -the possibility that Hassan may not be getting much in re- turn forrisking his credibility at home. Recent US. assurances may have misled the king into believing he'll get more military aid than the United States is, in fact, ready to deliver. Much of the U.S. aid has gone to help Morocco in its dragging, six-year war against the leftist Polisario rebels fighting to force Hassan to give up the Western Sahara, which he seized in 1980. Though the Polisarios have suf- fered serious setbacks recently and are , in no position to win, many U.S. ana- lysts doubt that Hassan can win either. Officially, the United States is neutral ; in the, conflict But sources told my as- sociates, Donald Goldberg and Dale Van Atta, that the Reagan administrationl has been far from neutral. For example: ' ? Delivery of cluster bombs has been expedited for use in the desert War. ? US. training and military equip- ment have been provided. ? American Embassy officials, in- cluding Defense Intelligence Agency personnel, regularly accompany visit- ing U.S. delegations to the Western Sahara war zone. ? The United States has even given ? the Moroccans intelligence information on the Polisarios' movements in the Western Sahara. The result of all this, sources say, is exaggerated Moroccan expectations of U.S. support and a distrust of our in- tentions by other nations in the region. A secret CIA profile of Hassan de- scribes a growing estrangement be- tween the king and his subjects. Where once -he would ride a white horse through _the crowds atireligious observ- ances, he rarely makes such vulnerable :public appearances now. ., The reason is simple: a series of close calls during the 1970s. , In 1971, his top generals tried to kill Hassan during his birthday celebra- tion. A loyal major, Muhammad Ouf- _kir, foiled the coup attempt. A year later, three Moroccan Air Force F5 fighters tried to, shoot .down Hassan's plane as he was returning from .a trip to France. The once-loyal Oufkir was impli- cated in that 1972 plot, and may have been executed, though the official ver- sion is that he committed suicide. Hassan has been understandably sus- picious of his military leaders ever since. Last Jan. 25, tren_ Ahmed Dlimi, the king's longtime chief of security, was re- ported killed in a car accident; but key witnesses apparently disappeared and evidence was suppressed. A few days later, another of the king's aides was killed under equally mysterious circum- stances. Western intelligence sources , speculated that Hassan, habitually sus- ? ceptible to rumors, was purging his top militan, command in fear of another ' coup attempt. - Certainly the king has become more security conscious and less tolerant of op- position. Many who made the mistake of criticizing the monarch are reportedly be- hind bars Suspicion and distrust permeate the royal entourage. "Rivalry and the jousting for position often pit family against family in the royal court, and intrigue and rumors abound," the secret CIA pro- file notes. "As the king is influenced by this gossip, the atmosphere is often such that efficient functioning at the top level of the bureaucracy is simply smothered." Despite the soaring cost of food and oil imports and the country's appalling unemployment?one out of three adult males is without a job?Hassan still lives like a king. Corruption among Moroccan officials is_endemic. In short, Hassan is vulnerable enough to criticism without being em- barrassed by public displays of affec- .::,tion from the Reagan administration. - ' And secret Pentagon and congres- . sional assessments question whether Morocco is the strategic keystone that justifies US. support of Hassan. in , their view, Morocco is a useful but not ? absolutely vital transit base for the US. Rapid Deployment Force. ? There is a real danger that the ad? - ministration's open support for Hassan ? may cost him his throne. Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 ? 7 Cr, Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R00 THE WASHINGTON PCT 2.2 Decernber 1982 play diplomatic hardball. His public tehti Of one leIt7erie- the Jordanian Huss.ein. Again image is polished, meticulously po- press before Reagan even received it lite and controlled. But a turbulent But Reazen and his_aides are not Holds the Reins . persoreility seethes behind this dis - likely ,toerevea:1 their Pique to the ? ciplined royal image. , . king this- week -Not only is HU884111 On a President Acco 'rding to intelligence sources, crucial-to the success of the presi- -Jordan's King Hussein:* -playing cateindemouse:zame:,7Witli.::Presie ent Reagan: The dought,,.? -little monarch, as usue'..., has worked his way into po- snon have a US. president eating out of his hand. This is all the more as--onis.einz because, the king has bombarded Reszan with bizarre,. lengthy, personal-letters. One was so rude that no response was made. Hussein is now the president's pampered guest in Washington. His little Bedouin kingdom is situated strategically. ..right at the center of Reagan's Middle East peace plan Without Hussein, Reagan would have a peace table with no one sit- ting. at it. Reagan sees the Eng as a possible strategic pe-ecner, and is ready to offer him fa generous gift of arms. But intelligence reports desaibe Hussein as "uncomfortable" with this role and hesitant to sit down at the bargaining table. He would like the military aid without the -strategic honor. The last four presidents have learned that Hussein is an erratic but wily ruler who knows bow to he has severe mood swings and may . dent's Middle Best peace plan, but even be a manic-depressive.lie likes he . has 'once again bep.m:blowing o ce4taiisai*OnTer13004.-194.1akiseit4terthrgitt-A-i,;.;. ..that would,quiverrhe ackles diplona- at'S trousers. 4palen.kbtAisited -Moscow and heaped He once wrote a sec-et letter to praise_on the Soviets. -Ata May 26, President Nixon threatening .to go- =4961, dinner in thie:Kremlin. the on eghazour unless he got U.S. aid. king repeatedly -referred to Leonid A ghaeou is a Bedouin mid_ori a 3Breelpnev as.a "dear.friend" and ex- neighboring tribe. 'Vie might have to. airesteed.?4rofoond -Erna-Weed= . . go on a ghazou, an old Arab tribal:, ,-ite--daFal-oPine and-conecildating the custom, and get it, Sir, from some:?,....ieliations between our comtries.r... quarter or other in this neighbor- : Bven .roore .dircressing to the Rea- . hood.," he wrote, "possibly causing _-_,447 administration _eras Hussein's you a problem which may be even praiieZaf2-1.1ik:Soviet,peace plan for -- more serious than the one I am Pow- ?theNtiddle,4ai:.,.Theaing told the Peeing.' -7-that elebeiiee welcomed _their _ ? . Hussein fired off an equally Lai* --?,rpeoPbeal:to convene an-intematione ' letter to President Ford. If the Unite conference on the.Near T.est with ed States didn't provide Jordatilivith [the-Palestine,I;iiheitation Organize - $350 million worth of anti-aircraft . tionj taking equal basis missiles, he told the president, Jor- with the, other side!? ?Husseit then dan would buy them from the Soviet proceeciei :to joint comp:1u- Union. And he pointedly noted that nique_ with the Soviets :that made -- the Soviets had offered him a corn- repeated'favorable references to the plete air defense system, which he "international conference:" eventually bought - U.S. _zeiiiain confident ? Sources told my reporters Lucette -/haCHilisein .not --switch elle- Lagriado and Andrea Siegle- that giances, but the suimixtiacrafron is Hussein has continued to write blis- hedging its bet by attempting to Pe- tering, at times offensive, letters to gotiate a new arms deal for Jorden- preaidente Reagan administration The package includes advanced US. , irritation reached a new high last fighter-bombers_ end is expected to ? -year when the king released the con-trigger,e'figlirrif.Vongrke+. Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 25X4A Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R00010 RADIO 1V REPORTS, INC., 4701 WILLARD AVENUE, CHEW CHASE, MARYLAND 20815 656-4068 FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS STAFF PPOGRAIvI The Charlie Rose Show DATE SUBJECT STATION WRC-TV October 13, 1982 10:30 A.M. ON Washington, D.C. Admiral Stansfield Turner CHARLIE ROSE: Admiral Stansfield Turner has had a record of extraordinary accomplishment in his life. He was a brilliant scholar, a Rhodes scholar. He went on to become an admiral in the Navy. President Carter appointed him as Director of the CIA. In 1981, January 20th, you left government to become a private citizen and a consultant. When you looked at the world in 1981, January, how did you size it up? What were the relative sensitive points? How were we doing in contrast to the Soviets and the Chinese? ADMIRAL TURNER: I think, Charlie, that one of the major factors was the Third World, the countries in Latin America, Africa, Asia, were becoming increasingly important to this country. We had focused our intelligence, much of our foreign policy for many years almost exclusively on the Soviet Union and its activities. We have to begin shifting our attention. Secondly, there were problems developing, even then, with our allies. We weren't paying enough attention to their attitudes and outlooks. The Europeans in particular. And that's become worse since 1981. We need, I believe, in the future to pay more attention to consulting with, understanding, and working closely with our allies if we're going to keep those relationships. I think those are two of the principal trends. ROSE: I want to come to the relationship with the allies and the pipeline decision. But first the Soviet Union. Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 -C2,=;CES. ,.../ASHINGTON D.C. ? NEW YORK a LOS ? ? i'-')=11-)nri a LNIM Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R0001 /RADIO TV REPORTS, IN 4701 WILLARD AVENUE, CHEW CHASE, MARYLAND 20815 656-4068 25X1A FOR PROGRAM DATE SUBJECT PUBLIC AFFAIRS STAFF Jack Anderson Confidential September 25, 1982 7:30 P.M. Profile of Begin STATION WJLA-TV ABC Network Washington, D.C. JACK ANDERSON: The man in the world's spotlight this week is Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin. In 1978 he won the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in establishing peace with Egypt. Today he stands widely condemned as a warmonger for the invasion of Lebanon. Many of his own countrymen hold him responsible for the massacre of Palestinians under Israel.i protection. What manner of man is Begin? I went to Israel last month to seek the answer. I questioned some of his intimate associates. One was Schmuel Katz, a former comrade in arms who has turned against Begin. SCHMUEL KATZ: I think that he has -- he has his phases He has a good deal of warmth in him, and he can also be very cold. ANDERSON: Perhaps the best assessment of Begin has been compiled by the Central Intelligence Agency. Here's a composite of this secret psychological profile. Let me read from it: "Begin is an'outspoken and somewhat crude or unrefined representative of the Holocaust philosophy. He represents the mentality of those Jews unable to update the Nazi treatment of their brethren." Is it possible, some critics have charged, that Begin has adopted the methods of the Nazis he so bitterly hated? Here's what Katz has to say. KATZ: He was particularly concerned about the possibility of lauss of ii but 1..Q.-9.s Acif .11qt .14.11.1.Y Pt. Q-U?, Appro-vea ror Releaseizuu'll1 L/113 : UH-KUV9U-U11.57KUUITI OUI I OULII-U but OFFICES IN: WASHINGTON D.C. ? NEW YORK ? LOS ANGELES ? CHICAGO ? DEIROIT ? AND OTHER PRINCIPAL CITIES 25X1 Approved For Release 200,R12/p&jAlkADP90-01137R0001 ARTICLE APPEARED FOREIGN REPORT ON PAGE J 7 OCTOBER 1982 Imelda and the generals The ambition of President Ferdinand Marcos's influential wife. Imelda, to succeed him will almost certainly be thwarted by the armed forces chiefs. This emerges from secret messages of the Central Intelligence Agency obtained by FOREIGN REPORT. "Mrs Marcos can be expected to become one of many candidates to succeed her husband, and her manoeuvring will add greatly to the political turmoil and instability that will follow his departure," one CIA report predicts. But it will not be easy, according to this report, because her "political coterie" does not include any influential military leaders. "Much of her power is based on her husband's authority and on'the belief among both foreigners and Filipinos that she is able to influence his decisions." Her political organisation is "largely made up of media people and businessmen, plus a scattering of politicians and a few military men. Most are sycophants seeking protection-. The CIA believes that her strongest opponent is the defence secretary, Juan Ponce Emile. "She regards Erwile, a longtime Marcos confidant with strong support in the military, as the principal threat to her ambitions," a secret report says.. "Since -the early days of martial law, Enrile has been widely considered the most obvious successor to Marcos, and there is a long-standing deep perSonal antagonism between Mrs Marcos and him." - When- Marcos planned a purge of corruption in government, Imelda added her own contributions to the purge list, hoping to protect some of her supporters in the armed forces who were threatened with dismissals while; purging some of Enrile's friends. Marcos pulled back from the purge under military pressure because, the CIA says, the generals asserted that -there was no reason why 'they should be publicly humiliated for corruption while many of the president's relatives were equally tainted. The CIA reports that Mrs Marcos "is hot well-regarded by. senior officers", that their loyalty to the president "does not extend to Mrs Marcos" and that many "do not like her". The CIA has learnt that a group of senior military- officers has been making plans for a post-Marcos government that would exclude his wife. When it appeared that Marcos was going to nominate his wife as his successor, Enrile was quoted as saying privately: "We members of 'the group' must keep our heads down and our mouths shut. Unless we do, we will not survive." The CIA said, in this, report, that Enrile- would have to "smile and do what is necessary and stay alive". Another CIA cable quotes a Filipino army officer as saying that "if Marcos dies before she does, and she makes her anticipated bid for the presidency, then as surely as night follows day, we will get rid of her. (We) could no iolerate.her running the country." Two other military officers were quoted in the same cabfe as saying that if Marcos were to die, the armed forces would oppose Mrs Marcos and "she would be ordered to leave the country immediately". _ _ Mrs Marcos is aware of her weakness and has been trying to develop a military following by courting some officers and by working through their wives, one of the CIA reports says. But most of her friends "are opportunists who want her help in protecting their economic interests. Few of them carry much weight in the military, and they would not necessarily support her in a bid for th.e presidency". Ci2VITNETEa Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 Marcos, who is 65, .has been giving a free rein to his 52-year-old wife by appointing her as a roving ambassador, minister of human settlements and governor of the greater Manila area. Her desire for the Manila post stemmed from her belief that she needed to demonstrate her ,administrative talents, according to the CIA, and "her husband acceded to the idea after a well-orchestrated L 'popular appeal' stage- managed by Mrs Marcos's Manila clique". The CIA believes that Manila's middle and lower classes have.never liked the Marcos clan and Imelda has not been able to win them over. 0 During his recent visit to Washington, Marcos insisted in private talks that he did not intend his wife to succeed him. His views might not, however, be taken into account in the turmoil of the post-Marcos Philippines. Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100170001-0 2 25X1A Approved For Release 2001/12/05 : CIA-RDP90-01137R00 TV REPORTS, 4701 WILLARD AVENUE, CHEW CHASE, MARYLAND 208'15 656-4068 FOR PROGRAM pAs Jack Anderson Confidential gmlorq WJLA-TIT ABC Network DATE October 2, 1982 7:30 P.M. CITY Washington, D.C. SUBJECT Ariel Sharon JACK ANDERSON: A smoldering question mark hangs over Israel today: Who is to blame for the massacre of Palestinian refugees? This question will be examined by a board of inquiry. But I've spoken to sources in Israel who know what happened. They tell me that two men are responsible for unleashing the Phalangists. The two are Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Defense Minister Ariel Sharon. Of course, they didn't approve the massacre. But Israeli intelligence warned in advance that it could happen. Many Israeli officials the real culprit is Sharon. Tay-tell me that Sharon pushed Israel into a war that could have been avoided, that Sharon has now disgraced the Israeli Army. I spent an evening with Sharon last month at his ranch. He made it clear that he didn't like restrictions. ARIEL SHARON: When a Jew was killed, immediately we were asked to show self-restraint. I mean from all around the world we got requests, "Please show self-restraint." And believe me, we showed self-restraint for a long time. _ ANDERSON: Sharon. also tried_ to justify his military actions in Lebanon. SHARON: Since the war started in 1975 between the PLO -t-efrori-st-organization and the Christians, the number of-people killed in Lebanon was over 100,000 dead and over 300,000 wounded. ANDERSON: I've had access to the CIA's secret psychological profile of Sharon. It uses words like brilliant, ruthless Aliao Ara tR%16%sl' o6lt7f265i diAW3p90 _6 437m60 IOObt stands ' ???:-.-," e :EV.. ;C: ?LOS /".^ ? ? C H 2, ? E',E70:7 ? Ar'L") CTi-fE7 CITIES