FOLLOW UP BRIEFING ON THE PERSIAN GULF THREAT ISSUE FOR THE HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90B00017R000300740003-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 8, 2011
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: June 19, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP90B00017R000300740003-8
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OCA 87-3572
19 June 1987
SUBJECT: Follow up briefing on the Persian Gulf Threat
issue for the House Armed Services Committee
1. Following the initial 17 June 1987, briefing on the
Persian Gulf Threat for the House Armed Services Committee, a
follow-up session for the Defense Panel Subcommittee was
requested. The briefing took place in 2118 RHOB at 0900 on
19 June 1987. The major emphasis focused on the differences
in our assessment with the DoD "White Paper". The following
Members and staff were present:
MEMBERS STAFF
Chairman Les Aspin (D., WI)
Rep Bill Nichols (D., AL)
Rep Charles Bennett (D., FL)
Rep Samuel Stratton (D., NY)
Rep Beverly Byron (D., MD)
Rep Norman Sisisky (D., VA)
Rep John Spratt (D., SC)
Rep George Darden (D., GA)
Rep William Dickinson (R., AL)
Rep Herbert Bateman (R., VA)
Tony Battista
Arch Barrett
Larry Cavaiola
Steve Conver
Rudy DeLeon
Robert Emmerichs
Bill Fleshman
Warren Nelson
2. The witness list for this briefing included Members
from Department of Defense, State Department, Defense
Intelligence Agency and the Agency (attached).
3. Subsequent to the initial session, Mr. Aspin issued a
press release claiming that the Committee had learned of vast
differences within the Administration on the Persian Gulf
threat and cited the Agency briefing as undercutting the DoD
views on the situation. Although the differences seemed to be
a minor issue during our initial session, the Committee was
not satisfied and wanted more amplification.
4. The differences turned out to be more semantics than
major disagreements. The Agency's position was based on a
period of six months to a year, while the "White Paper"
covered only a two-month time frame. The "White Paper" did
not address such issues as the retaliation threat to US and
Western interests from terrorists for reflagging.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP90B00017R000300740003-8
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP90B00017R000300740003-8
Our evaluation was based on a comprehensive look at an actual
threat being initiated. The "White Paper" had based its
conclusions on a net threat situation in which an aggression
would not be successful because of applied countermeasures.
The fact that the Intelligence Community was in fact talking
to each other seemed to ease most Members' concerns.
Distribution:
/
Orig. - OCA Record V
1 - PG Chrono
HA/OCA dpt (27 Aug 87)
2
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP90B00017R000300740003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP90B00017R000300740003-8
DEFENSE POLICY PANEL AND INVESTIGATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE
OF THE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES
L June 19, 1987
Commander Skip Minor
Country Desk Officer, Persian Gulf
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense,
International Security Affairs
Vice Admiral Powell Carter, Jr.
Director of the Joint Staff
Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
State Department
Richard A. Clarke
Deputy Assistant Secretary
for Regional Analysis
Defense Intelligence Agency
Lt. Gen. Leonard H. Perroots
Director
Defense Intelligence Agency
STAT
Defense Intelligence Officer
for Middle East and South Asia
Central Intelligence Agency
Daniel Webster
National Intelligence Officer
for Near East and South Asia
STAT
Director of Near East and South Asia Office
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP90B00017R000300740003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release-2011/12/08 : CIA-RDP90B00017R000300740003-8_ _ .pq I
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RECl1 #
17 June 1987
OCA 87-2432
NOTE FOR: D/OCA
SUBJECT: Request for Persian Gulf Hearing on Differences
in Assessment between the Agency and DoD
VIA:
FROM:
1. On 17 June 1987, the House Armed Services Committee
received a briefing on the Persian Gulf situation with major
amDhasis, on q/Iran relations and the Silkworm missile.
25X1 opened with a short perspective on the problem
emphasizing the fact that no one has all the information, and
that based on the limited facts, a disagreement existed on the
degree of threat. He concluded with the statement that we
will give the Committee the facts and our assessment of the
25X1 data. Q summarized the war status, and the floor was
opened for questions. Twenty-eight members devoted the next
two hours to questions.
2. The committee has requested a follow-up briefing for
the Defense Policy Panel Subcommittee on Friday, 19 June at
0900. They are asking for a closed session to include the NIO
25X1 (Dan Webster) and from the Agency, the Defense
Intelligence Officer or the Mid East, and State (INR).
The Committee has thrown us a curve, however, by asking that
the DoD author of the white paper appear as well.
3. The major emphasis or issue would focus on differences
in our assessment. Although this seemed to be a minor issue
25X1 during our question and answer session and high-
lighted that this was a CIA assessment throughout his remarks,
the Committee wants more amplification.
4. Based on the short leadtime, I will continue to make
arrangements for the briefing on the assumption that it will
receive an approval. Nonetheless, this falls into the
category of a current political issue, it involves us in a
face to face dispute with a policy agency, and it appears to
require a ruling from the DCI or DDCI.
Distribution:
Ori Addressee
1 - OCA. Record
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/08: CIA-RDP90B00017R000300740003-8