SSCI BRIEFING ON PROSPECTIVE SOVIET ECONOMIC TRENDS, 24 NOVEMBER 1987

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90B00017R000500040001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 24, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/24: CIA-RDP90B00017R000500040001-5
SESSION NAME: 5SCI 24 t?IC:A/K7
SCANNED: BO De...C.SNES rn PR.
INDEXED: 2.7 -TAN eFt
CHECKED: 303AKI 90
DATABASE: C-41(19roic, rvtL r.c.zrints
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/24: CIA-RDP90B00017R000500040001-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/24: CIA-RDP90B00017R000500040001-5
OCA L-L.C.41.fflatIQ
24 November 1987
OCA 87-5900
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: SSCI Briefing on Prospective Soviet Economic Trends,
24 November 1987
1. The SSCI was briefed on 24 November 1987 by a panel
chaired by Director, SOVA, on trends in the Soviet economy.
The session was requested by Senator Bradley who directs the
Soviet Task Force for the Committee. The briefing was held at
the SSCI, 219 Hart Building, from 1600 to 1800 hours. In
addition to Doug MacEachin, Agency officers participating in
25X1 the session were of SOVA. Ed
Hewitt of Brookings and Jan Vanous of PlanEcon offered their
analyses of trends. Senator Bradley was the only Member
participating, and staff included John Despres, Bob Morgan,
Jeanne McNaughton, and Gina Genton. George Tenet, John Nelson
and Blythe Thomas attended for short periods. Gina Despres of
the Senator's personal staff joined the group for the entire
briefing. Fred Ward prepared a transcript.
2. As described by the SSCI staff, the Senator wanted to
hear from the panel on the issue of "alternative views of
future Soviet interests and long lead-time preparations for
more active involvement in international capitalist markets."
25X1 3. For the Agency,
description of scenarios for expansion of Soviet economic ties
to the West and explained several areas of concern for the
policy-maker and intelligence. These involved Soviet
acquisition of Western technology, dual-use technology
25X1 degree to which the West finances Soviet development.
offered solutigns which the U.S. would have to consider.
4. Ghorbachev's strategy was examined by Ed Hewitt of
Brookings, the modernization effort, the trade-off's for the
Soviet leader and evidence of his pragmatism. In this segment,
the Senator was particularly interested in exploring how the
Soviets approach joint ventures and/or barter arrangements.
led off the review with a
25X1
and the
C ONF I DENTIAL
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/24: CIA-RDP90B00017R000500040001-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/24: CIA-RDP90B00017R000500040001-5
25X1
25X1
5. Jan Vanous addressed economic conditions in Eastern
Europe, particularly major financial crises expected in
Romania, Hungary, Yugoslavia and Poland. He suggested that the
U.S. should take advantage of the situation to pressure these
countries into significant changes in their economic systems.
commented as well on the problems of Eastern
Europe and was less optimistic that Western advice on solutions
would" bring about a better situation.
Office of Congressional Affairs
Distribution:
Orig - OCA Record
1 - MR Chrono
25X1 OCA/Senat ks (8 Dec 87)
CONFIDENTIAL
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/24: CIA-RDP90B00017R000500040001-5