MEXICO

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90B01013R000400280003-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 6, 2012
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: January 22, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release
2012/08/06: CIA-RDP90B01013R000400280003-1 LT
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Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06 : CIA-RDP90BO1013R000400280003-1
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No.
COPY
NATIONAL SECURITY
COUNCIL
INFORMATION
Notice
The attached document contains classified National Security Council
Information. It is to be read and discussed only by persons authorized by
law.
Your signature acknowledges you are such a person and you promise you
will show or discuss information contained in the document only with
persons who are authorized by law to have access to this document.
Persons handling this document acknowledge he or she knows and
understands the security law relating thereto and will cooperate fully with
any lawful investigation by the United States Government into any
unauthorized disclosure of classified information contained herein.
Access List
DATE NAME DATE NAME
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06: CIA-RDP90B01013R000400280003-1
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SECRET
-0060x/1
87
SYSTEM II
90041
THE SECRETARYOF STATE
THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY
?THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
THE ATTORNEY- GENERAL
THE SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
THE SECRETARY OF ENERGY
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
CHAIRMAN, JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF
ADMINISTRATOR,,AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL
DEVELOPMENT
COMMISSIONER, IMMIGRATION AND NATURALIZATION
MEMORANDUM FOR THE VICE P ESIDENT
SUBJECT: Mexico (C):;
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The ..President has appr Nlbd t1 e ate`ached National Security Study
Directive on Mexico. A''copy is forwarded for your information
and action. It should be treated as highly sensitive. (S)
Frank C. Carlucci
SECRET
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- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06: CIA-RDP90BO1013R000400280003-1
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SECRET
NATIONAL SECURITY STUDY
DIRECTIVE NUMBER 5-87
January 22, 1987
SYSTEM II
90041
This directive sets forth the terms-reference for an
interagency review of the situation'in Mexico and our policy
toward that nation, now and in coming years. (C)
Mexico is entering its fifth year of serious economic
difficulties. Social, political, administrative, and criminal
problems also increasingly afflict it. Relations between our two
governments are relatively friendly, but they are subject to
periodic aggravation, reflecting a tension which makes frank,
in-depth discussion of common concerns difficult. (S)
Mexico is now in the proces of absorbing substantial new loans
acquired in the context 6f"' a Crider debt restructuring package,
with the avowed intention to undertake basic structural reforms.
On the political front the PRI system continues its dominance but
faces growing pressure fc preform f om within and increasing
. disencha tmeAit i' ! e v e it z e~gments: o~ .: .gi u ati+on r
Attention. is rapidly- turni - now t e.successionto President
de la Madrid in September 19`88. (S)
The prospects for stability Meico:depend mainly on the PRI's
ability to be flexible in'meeting new challenges. They also
depend. on continued suppo t, by:,th eA ..S.. government., our banks,.
.. ..
our.pr?ivate, sector,. and .. the international ,fi.nanc?ial.,community....
But.,certai
n ?: practices:.-and ??policies of- the: Mexic
a
n. system .i3npec e:: ,
a
y~l
y
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continuing irritant in our relationship; issues arising from our
common border, most particularly drugs and immigration, are also
matters of concern. (S)
An interagency review should therefore consider, inter alia:
-- the future course of'the Mexican economy and the prospects
for basic economic reform, the prospects for continued
external support from oil earnings, trade, investment and
x
loans;
social and political trends n Mexico, with particular
attention to the presidential succession, the pressures for
reform, the coherence and. efficacy of the PRI system, and
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the degree of popular, opposition to it; PAN's prospects for
becoming a national as distinguished from a regional
political force; `.,
Soviet/Cuban intentions toward and capabilities in Mexico;
the extent to which` the 'Soviet presence is directed toward
the United States;
the roles and attitudes "of --key kiiEstitutions: the parties,
the bureaucracy, the'Church, the'Yarmed forces, etc.;
the prospects, if any, for political violence, the spread of
Central American violence, or armed-opposition to.-the
.government; .
drug production and trafficking, as well as pervasive
bureaucratic corruption, and their impact on Mexican
government and politics;
-- future immigration trends,- and prospects for U.S.-Mexican
difficulties over U.S.. efforts: to control the flow;
third-country immigration' through Mexico to the United
States (e.g., Cuban); and
-- trends in Mexican foreign relations, with particular
h. ..: attention ~tb~ :po3i~ x h of ted -St s:, Central
.America, and the . S e - ubau en nte. (S):
The review should offer policy recommendations on the following:
-- How can we improve effective cooperation with Mexico in
economic. matters and encouzage.: he Mexican government to
undertake necessary reform.
Mexico in-the private. sector,. among our banks, and in the
international financial community?
-- What should be our posture toward internal political
developments in Mexico? What attitude should we adopt
toward the upcoming presidential succession?
How can we improve cooperation`_with Mexico on drug
trafficking, immigration and border issues?
How can we moderate those elements of Mexican foreign policy
that *we find objectionable?,.,What options do we have with
respect to Mexican actions harmful to our interests and
policies?
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What indicators would"lead us to conclude that the present
Mexican system will not remain stable but rather is headed
for profound change or disintegration?
What are our options,/ in the event the PRI system seems
headed toward demise or,,fun'damental change?
How could U.S.-Mexican,'military relations be improved?
Should a significant tUS..security assistance program be
-- How important are Mexcan; Brie gy resources to us, and how
can we strengthen the U.S.-Mexican energy relationship?
What circumstances would jeopardize U.S. access to these
resources? (S). .
This study should be conducted by the Interdepartmental Group
chaired by the Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American
Affairs and should be completed by February 27, 1987. (C)
.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06: CIA-RDP90B01013R000400280003-1