CODEL TOWER'S MEETING WITH KING HUSSEIN, FEBRUARY 20, 1984

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CIA-RDP90B01370R000801030003-7
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RIPPUB
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S
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11
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December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
November 19, 2010
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3
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Publication Date: 
February 22, 1984
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CABLE
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90B01370R000801030003-7 &m%:RE PAGE 001 TOR: 222322Z FEB 84 00 RUEAIIB ZNY SSSSS ZOC STATE ZZH UTS2874 00 RUEHC DE RUEHAM #1717/01 0530937 ZNY 55SSS ZZH 0 220915Z FEB 84 FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8732 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE INFO RUEHBL/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY 0852 RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 3125 RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 1387 RUEHJI/AMEMBASSY JIDDA PRIORITY 0346 RUEHAD/USINT BAGHDAD PRIORITY 4665 RUEHRH/USELO RIYADH PRIORITY 4069 RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 8463 RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM 7593 BT -AMMAN 01717 EXDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO CODEL TOWER MILITARY ADDRESSEE HANDLE AS SPECAT EXCLUSIVE E.0.12356: DECL:OADR TAGS PREL, OREP, JO SUBJECT CODEL TOWER'S MEETING WITH KING HUSSEIN, -- FEBRUARY 20, 1984 -- IN RESPONSE TO SENATOR TOWER'S QUESTION ON THE RESULTS OF THE KING'S VISIT TO WASHINGTON, HUSSEIN SAID HE DID NOT COME BACK WITH ANYTHING CONCLUSIVE OR TANGIBLE. ALTHOUGH HE SENSED AN OVERALL DEEP PREOCCUPATION IN WASHINGTON WITH LEBANON, HE ALSO NOTED AN INTEREST ON REFOCUSING THE USG'S EFFORTS ON THE MAJOR CAUSE OF INSTABILITY IN THE REGION -- THE PALESTINIAN ISSUE -- AND ON THE ARAB/ISRAELI PEACE PROCESS. HUSSEIN SAID HE MADE IT CLEAR IN WASHINGTON THAT IF JORDAN ENGAGES ITSELF IN THE PEACE PROCESS, IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHAT THE END RESULT WILL BE AND EXACTLY WHAT THE U.S. POSITION IS. HUSSEIN REITERATED HIS VIEW THAT NEGOTIATION OF A TRANSITIONAL REGIME FOR THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES MUST BE FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY FINAL STATUS NEGOTIATIONS. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90B01370R000801030003-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90B01370R000801030003-7 SECRET 84 3442767 SSO PAGE 002 NC 3442767 TOR: 2223222 FEB 84 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ -- JORDAN WILL GO AHEAD IN ITS BILATERAL DISCUSSIONS WITH THE PLO TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR REAL COOPERATION LEADING TO NEGOTIATIONS. ARAFAT IS EXPECTED IN AMMAN BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH. HUSSEIN SAID HE WANTS ARAFAT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MEMBERS OF THE PLO DECISION-MAKING BODIES TO PREVENT ARAFAT FROM PLAYING FOR TIME BY REFERRING DECISIONS BACK TO HIS ORGANIZA- TION. ALSO, PALESTINIANS FROM THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES SHOULD BE PRESENT IN AMMAN. CONCOMITANTLY, JORDAN WILL CONTINUE TO SEEK A BALANCED RELATIONSHIP WITH PALES- TINIANS AS EVIDENCED BY THE KING'S DECISION TO RECONVENE PARLIAMENT. -- HUSSEIN FAULTED ISRAELI POLICY FOR REJECTING THE REAGAN INITIATIVE, CONTINUING SETTLEMENTS ACTIVITIES, AND CONTINUING THE OCCUPATION OF SOUTHERN LEBANON. -- ON LEBANON, THE KING TOLD TOWER THAT HIS WORST FEARS HAVE BEEN REALIZED: LEBANON IS EFFECTIVELY PARTITIONED AND OCCUPIED BY TWO BELLIGERENTS; THE LEBANESE PEOPLE ARE DIVIDED AND THE AIMS OF THE SOVIETS AND THE ARAB RADICALS TO UNDERMINE THE U.S. POSITION IN THE AREA ARE BEING REALIZED. HUSSEIN SUGGESTED THAT THE ONLY WAY TO UNDO THE SITUATION IS TO ATTACK THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE REGION S PROBLEM WHICH IS THE PALESTINIAN ISSUE. -- HUSSEIN STRESSED THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE PROPOSED IRAQ-AQABA PIPELINE PROJECT AND THE POSITIVE EFFECT THIS WOULD HAVE ON THE IRAQ/IRAN WAR AND ON IRAQI/ARAB AND IRAQ/U.S. RELATIONS. -- ON THE U.S./JORDANIAN MILITARY RELATIONSHIP, HUSSEIN REFERRED TO THE GROWING MILITARY AND SECURITY THREAT TO JORDAN FROM SYRIA AND SYRIAN-SUPPORTED TERRORISM. HE VOICED THE HOPE THAT THE STINGER SALE TO JORDAN WILL COME THROUGH. CONCERNING THE JLP HUSSEIN CITED THE MUTUAL INTERESTS OF BOTH THE U.S. AND JORDAN IN THE PROGRAM AND HOPED IT COULD BE REALIZED -- BUT NOT AT A PRICE WHICH AFFECTS JORDAN'S DIGNITY. SENATOR TOWER SAID HE AND THE MAJORITY OF HIS COLLEAGUES ON THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE WILL SUPPORT THE ADMINISTRATION'S REQUESTS ON JORDAN'S MILITARY REQUIREMENTS. EXDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO CODEL TOWER MILITARY ADDRESSEE HANDLE AS SPECAT EXCLUSIVE E.O.12356: DECL:OADR TAGS PREL, OREP, JO SUBJECT CODEL TOWER'S MEETING WITH KING HUSSEIN, 3. KING HUSSEIN MET WITH SENATOR TOWER AND CONGRESSMAN MC CAIN AT THE DIWAN ON FEBRUARY 20. MARWAN KASEM, THE DIRECTOR OF THE ROYAL COURT, ATTENDED THE MEETING. AMBASSADOR VIETS, DCM SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 SECRET 84 3442767 SSO PAGE 003 TOR: 2223222 FEB 84 DJEREJIAN AND CODEL STAFFERS JAMES MC GOVERN, JAMES LOCHER, AND JAMES JONES ATTENDED ON THE U.S. SIDE. 4. SENATOR TOWER ASKED HUSSEIN FOR HIS ASSESSMENT OF HIS RECENT TRIP TO WASHINGTON AND HIS DISCUSSIONS WITH THE PRESIDENT. 5. HUSSEIN SAID HIS WASHINGTON VISIT PROVIDED A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO MEET WITH PRESIDENT REAGAN, OTHER TOP U.S. OFFICIALS AND PRESIDENT MUBARAK ALSO. BEING IN THE UNITED STATES FOR HIS MEDICAL CHECKUP, HE DECIDED TO GO TO WASHINGTON TO FIND OUT WHAT THE THINKING IS ON THE MIDDLE EAST AND TO DETERMINE WHAT THE POSSIBILITIES ARE FOR THE FUTURE. 6. INSOFAR AS JORDAN IS CONCERNED, HE HAS TAKEN SIGNIFICANT STEPS WHICH HAVE RELAXED THE ATMOSPHERE WITHIN THE COUNTRY AND GIVEN HOPE FOR A BETTER POLITICAL FUTURE BY THE RESTORATION OF PARLIAMENTARY LIFE. THE KING INDICATED THAT HIS DECISION TO RECONVENE PARLIAMENT WAS TAKEN QUITE A WHILE AGO BUT HE WAS LOOKING AT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE REGION TO CHOOSE THE MOST APPROPRIATE TIME TO ACT. THE TIMING OF HIS DECISION WAS ALSO BASED ON THE FACT HE HAD TO MOVE RAPIDLY LEST THE DEATH OF SOME OF THE ELDER MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT RESULT IN LOSING A QUORUM FOR RECONVENING THAT BODY. 7. HUSSEIN REFERRED TO THE 1974 RABAT SUMMIT DECISION RECOGNIZING THE PLO AS THE SOLE, LEGITIMATE REPRESENTA- TIVE OF THE PALESTINIANS AND SAID THAT DECISION CREATED A VACUUM FOR JORDAN SINCE IT HAD BEEN INVOLVED UP TO THAT POINT IN THE RECUPERATION OF THE "LOST TERRI- TORIES" AND ESTABLISHING PEACE. MORE RECENTLY, THE ATTEMPTS BY SYRIA TO SPLIT AND CONTAIN THE PLO HAVE BEEN THE CAUSE OF MUCH CONCERN. THE SYRIANS ARE CREATING AN EVEN MORE DANGEROUS VACUUM THAN THAT FLOWING FROM THE RABAT DECISION. THIS IS A CRITICAL MOMENT AND JORDAN DECIDED WHAT WAS NEEDED WAS TO GIVE SUBSTANCE TO THE POLITICAL LIFE OF THIS COUNTRY. THE KING SAID HE WAS HAPPY WITH THE RESULTS OF HIS DECI- SION ON PARLIAMENT WHICH HAS GIVEN NOT ONLY JORDANIANS BUT THE INHABITANTS OF THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES NEW HOPE. 8. JORDAN, THE KING CONTINUED, SEEKS A BALANCED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN JORDANIANS AND PALESTINIANS. JORDAN HAS BEEN TALKING WITH THE PLO ON THE POSSIBILITIES OF SUCH A BALANCED RELATIONSHIP WHICH WOULD BE SATISFAC- TORY TO BOTH FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. "WE HOPE IN EXDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO CODEL TOWER MILITARY ADDRESSEE HANDLE AS SPECAT EXCLUSIVE SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 SECRET 84 3442767 SSO PAGE 004 NC 3442767 TOR: 222322Z FEB 84 E.O.12356: DECL:OADR TAGS : PREL, OREP, JO SUBJECT : CODEL TOWER'S MEETING WITH KING HUSSEIN, THE COMING PERIOD THAT WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE IN ALL SINCERITY TO JUSTIFY THIS RELATIONSHIP." AS A LIBERA- TION ORGANIZATION THE PLO CAN ONLY JUSTIFY ITS EXISTENCE BY ESTABLISHING A RESPONSIBLE ATTITUDE. THE PLO HAS A DUTY TO RESPOND TO THE NEEDS OF THE INHABITANTS OF THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES. THE RADICALS HAVE SPLIT. 9. ANOTHER MAJOR PROBLEM IN THE ARAB WORLD IS THE FACT THAT THE ARAB LEAGUE AND THE PLO HAVE BEEN CRIPPLED BY CONSENSUS POLITICS. THE RADICALS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CONTROL THE SITUATION UP TO NOW. HOWEVER, THE TIME HAS COME TO CHANGE THE SITUATION AND NOW THERE IS A CHANCE. "I WILL DO MY BEST TO SEE WHAT CAN BE DONE." HUSSEIN SAID THAT HIS THEME WITH ARAFAT IS "WE HAVE A PROBLEM. WE ARE BOTH RESPONSIBLE AND WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING IN PARTICULAR. WE NEED TO LOOK AT ALL OPTIONS TO REACH A SOLUTION. THIS CAN BE ACHIEVED WHEN WE HAVE AN IDEA AS TO THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PLO AND JORDAN." 10. THE NEXT PRIORITY IS THE ARAB WORLD. WE HAVE LOST FAITH IN OURSELVES AS WITNESSED BY OUR INABILITY TO FORMULATE POLICIES AND WORK TOGETHER. WE HOPE TO SEE HOW WE CAN ACTIVATE THE MAJORITY AT THE ARAB LEAGUE AND ARAB SUMMITS. IN THIS RESPECT WE NEED TO AMEND THE ARAB LEAGUE CHARTER. LEBANON 11. KING HUSSEIN MADE THE FOLLOWING POINTS ON THE LEBANESE CRISIS: -- OUR WORST FEARS HAVE BEEN REALIZED. THE COUNTRY IS EFFECTIVELY PARTITIONED AND OCCUPIED BY TWO BELLIGERENTS. THE LEBANESE PEOPLE ARE DIVIDED. THE AIM OF OUR OPPONENTS (I.E., THE ARAB RADICALS AND THE SOVIET UNION) IS TO PLACE OUR FRIENDS IN A TRAP AND UNDERMINE THE U.S. -- THE ONLY WAY TO UNDO THIS SITUATION IS TO CHANGE EMPHASIS AND TO TACKLE THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE PROBLEM -- THE PALESTINIAN ISSUE. 12. SENATOR TOWER SAID HE AGREED WITH THE KING'S ASSESSMENT. -- THE U.S. MUST DETERMINE IF IT CAN ESTABLISH A BETTER AND MORE EFFECTIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS FRIENDS IN THE AREA. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 SECRET 84 3442767 SSO PAGE 005 TOR: 222322Z FEB 84 HAVE DONE WHAT WE CAN TO IMPROVE IRAQ'S RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES. I CAN VISUALIZE A SITUATION WHERE IRAQ, EGYPT, JORDAN, AND OTHERS CAN WORK TOGETHER, THEREBY CUTTING SYRIA DOWN TO ITS ACTUAL SIZE. EVEN LEBANON MAY BECOME LESS OF A PROBLEM IF SUCH POLITICAL COOPERATION CAN BE ACHIEVED. EXDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO CODEL TOWER MILITARY ADDRESSEE HANDLE AS SPECAT EXCLUSIVE E.O.12356: DECL:OADR TAGS PREL, OREP, JO SUBJECT CODEL TOWER'S MEETING WITH KING HUSSEIN, -- ISRAEL HAS CAUSED THREE MAJOR PROBLEMS, FIRST, ISRAEL REJECTS THE REAGAN INITIATIVE. SECOND, ISRAEL CONTINUES ITS SETTLEMENTS ACTIVITY. THIRD, ISRAEL CONTINUES ITS BELLIGERENT OCCUPATION OF SOUTHERN LEBANON. THE SETTLEMENTS HAVE CREATED NEW REALITIES AND NEW OBSTACLES TO PEACE. THERE IS A NEW PLAN TO RELOCATE PEOPLE IN THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES; IT SUGGESTS THE ISRAELIS INTEND THAT THEY BE SENT TO THE JORDAN VALLEY (BEN PORAT PLAN). -- THE ISRAELIS ARE ALSO TRYING TO EXTEND ISRAELI LEGISLATION TO THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES, A STEP TANTAMOUNT TO ANNEXATION. -- THE ISRAELIS ARE ALSO CAUSING PROBLEMS IN TERMS OF THE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE ACROSS THE JORDAN RIVER. THE ISRAELI ATTITUDE TOWARD RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUALS COMING OVER TO EXPRESS THEMSELVES, BE IT WITH THE PLO OR JORDAN OR WITH OTHER ARABS, IS WORRISOME. A CASE IN POINT IS THAT OF THE GAZA NOTABLE, RASHAD SHAWWA, WHO HAS BEEN PREVENTED FROM TRAVELING TO THE EAST BANK. ANOTHER EXAMPLE IS A MEMBER OF THE JORDANIAN PARLIAMENT WHO WAS DENIED PERMISSION TO TRAVEL TO JORDAN TO PARTICIPATE IN PARLIAMENT. THERE ARE OTHER EXAMPLES ALSO. -- THE ISRAELIS DO NOT MIND MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT COMING OVER BUT THEY WILL NOT ALLOW PALESTINIANS TO MOVE TO INFLUENCE THE PLO AT THIS IMPORTANT TIME. "I UNDERSCORED THIS ISSUE AS STRONGLY AS I COULD IN WASHINGTON. IF WE ARE TO HAVE THE RATIONAL MAJORITY EXPRESS ITSELF, WE MUST ALLOW THESE PEOPLE TO ACT." SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 SECRET 84 3442767 SSO PAGE 006 NC 3442767 TOR: 222322Z FEB 84 -- I DID NOT COME BACK FROM WASHINGTON WITH ANY CONCLUSIONS. I SENSED A DEEP PREOCCUPATION WITH LEBANON. HOWEVER. THERE IS AN IGTEREST IN WASHINGTON IN REFOCUSING ON THE MAJOR CAUSE OF INSTABILITY IN THE AREA -- THE PALESTINIAN ISSUE -- AND ON THE ARAB/ ISRAELI PEACE PROCESS. -- I TOLD MY AMERICAN INTERLOCUTORS THAT IF YOU WANT US IN THE PEACE PROCESS WE CANNOT DEAL.WITH THE U.S. AS AN ALLY OF ISRAEL. THE LEBANESE PROBLEM IS AN EXAMPLE BEFORE US WHERE OUR HOPES WERE THAT THE U.S. WOULD STAND BY ITS WORD AND THAT BY THE END OF 1982 THERE WOULD BE A WITHDRAWAL OF ISRAELI FORCES FROM LEBANON. -- WE WOULD LIKE TO DEAL WITH THE U.S. AS A SUPER POWER. WE WERE TOLD THE U.S. WILL HAVE TO TALK WITH EXDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO CODEL TOWER MILITARY ADDRESSEE HANDLE AS SPECAT EXCLUSIVE E.O.12356: DECL:OADR TAGS PREL, OREP, JO SUBJECT CODEL TOWER'S MEETING WITH KING HUSSEIN, ISRAEL IN THE COMING PERIOD. WE WERE FRANK IN EX- PRESSING OUR VIEWS BUT WE DID NOT COME OUT WITH ANYTHING TANGIBLE. -- THE PRESIDENT ASSURED ME HE STANDS BY HIS PEACE INITIATIVE. BUT A LOT OF GROUND HAS CHANGED SINCE SEPTEMBER 1, 1982.. IF WE DECIDE TO ENGAGE IN THE PEACE PROCESS WE MUST KNOW WHAT THE END RESULT WILL BE. -- ISRAEL IS VERY STRONG ON THE GROUND. IT IS IMPORTANT FOR US TO KNOW WHAT THE U.S. POSITION ACTUALLY IS. WITHOUT THAT WE SEE NO HOPE. IF WE FAIL IT WILL BE MUCH MORE DEVASTATING THAN THE FAILURE IN LEBANON. MUCH MORE IS AT STAKE. -- OUR VIEW OF THE PEACE PROCESS IS THAT THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD MUST BE FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY A FINAL SETTLEMENT. WE SEEK TOTAL PEACE FOR TOTAL WITHDRAWAL. IF SOMETHING IS ACCOMPLISHED WE MUST MOVE RAPIDLY TO FINAL STATUS NEGOTIATIONS. -- WE DIDN'T GET MANY ANSWERS IN WASHINGTON AT THIS STAGE. 1984 IS AN IMPORTANT YEAR DOMESTICALLY IN THE U.S. I DID NOT PLAN TO TELL THE PLO THAT I HAVE COME BACK FROM THH U.S. WITH A SOLUTION. WHAT IS IMPORTANT IS FOR JORDAN TO TALK BILATERALLY WITH THE PLO TO EXPLORE WHAT THE POSSIBILITIES FOR MOVING TOGETHER ARE. -- I WAS UNHAPPY WITH THE PUBLIC STATEMENT MUBARAK MADE IN WASHINGTON AT THE END OF OUR TRILATERAL MEETINGS. MY OWN IMPRESSION IS THAT WHEN MUBARAK MET WITH ARAFAT IN EGYPT HE TOLD ARAFAT HE WOULD DO HIS BEST WITH THE USG TO GET THE U.S. TO IMPROVE ITS SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 SECRET 84 3442767 SSO PAGE 007 NC 3442767 TOR: 222322Z FEB 84 -- I KNOW THE USG POSITION ON THE PLO. FURTHER, THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE PLO. THE ANSWER RESIDES BASICALLY IN A JORDANIAN DELEGATION AND PERHAPS DISCUSSIONS WITH THE PLO AT A STAGE LATER ON. -- THE POINT I TRIED TO MAKE IN WASHINGTON IS THAT IF THE PALESTINIANS ARE WILLING TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PEACE PROCESS, HOW CAN ANYONE DENY THEM THAT PROSPECT AND POSSIBILITY? IF THE ISSUE IS THAT OF DEALING WITH A TERRORIST ORGANIZATION, HOW DOES THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT CLAIM TO HAVE A MONOPOLY ON DECIDING WHO IS AND WHO IS NOT A TERRORIST. THE PALESTINIANS MUST BE INVOLVED IN ANY ATTEMPTS TO OBTAIN A SOLUTION. IRAO -- THE IRAQIS ARE HOLDING ON A MILITARY FRONT VERY WELL. THE IRANIAN AIM IS TO CONTINUE THE WAR BASED ON AN ASSESS- MENT THAT IRAQ WILL SUFFER MATERIALLY. THIS ILLUSION MUST BE REMOVED. EXDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO CODEL TOWER MILITARY ADDRESSEE HANDLE AS SPECAT EXCLUSIVE E.O.12356: DECL:OADR TAGS PREL, OREP, JO SUBJECT . CODEL TOWER'S MEETING WITH KING HUSSEIN, -- IRAQ'S CURRENT EXPORTS OF OIL ARE LIMITED EXCEPT FOR THE PIPELINE THROUGH TURKEY. THE GULF REMAINS CLOSED. MONEY FROM THE GULF STATES TO IRAQ IS DIMINISHING. -- IF IRAN SUCCEEDS THE RESULTANT DISARRAY WILL NOT BE CONFINED ONLY TO IRAQ. THE WHOLE REGION WOULD BE SERIOUSLY AFFECTED. THE PROSPECT OF A RELIGIOUS SPLIT BETWEEN THE SUNNIS AND THE SHIITES WOULD BF ONE RESULT. THE GULF STATES AND SAUDI ARABIA WOULD BE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY AND THE REGION COULD EASILY CRAGMENT AND WEAKEN. -- THE TALKS ON ESTABLISHING ALTERNATE PIPELINES FROM IRAQ CONTINUE. CONCERNING THE SAUDI ARABIAN PIPELINE, IF ANY PROBLEMS OCCUR IN THE GULF THE SAUDIS WILL HAVE PRIORITY IN PUMPING THEIR OIL. HOWEVER, THE RED SEA LINE WILL TAKE THREE TO FIVE YEARS TO COMPLETE. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 SECRET 84 3442767 SSO PAGE 008 NC 3442767 TOR: 222322Z FEB 84 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ -- THEREFORE, THERE IS ANOTHER IDEA THAT HAS BEEN PRESENTED BY BECHTEL WHICH IS INTERESTED IN CON- STRUCTING A LINE ALONG THE OLD IPC PIPELINE WHICH ENDED IN HAIFA. THIS IS AN ESTABLISHED LINE. WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CREATING A LINK TO AQABA. THE IDEA IS THAT THE PIPELINE COULD BE COMPLETED BETWEEN 15 MONTHS TO TWO YEARS. THE CAPACITY WOULD BE ONE MILLION BARRELS OF OIL A DAY WITH AN EVENTUAL CAPACITY OF 1.5 MILLION. IT WOULD PAY FOR ITSELF WITHIN MONTHS. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THIS LINE WOULD GIVE IRAQ A VERY NEEDED BREATHER. IT WOULD BE A TURNING POINT VIS-A-VIS IRAN. -- A JOINT JORDANIAN-IRAQI COMMITTEE IS WORKING ON NEGOTIATING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS PIPELINE DEAL. THE IRAQIS INSIST THEY WILL NOT LOOK AT IT UNLESS THE U.S. IS AN ACTIVE PARTICIPANT IN THE PROJECT. THIS IS A WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY. IT CREATES ANOTHER LINK FOR US AND IN IRAQ'S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U.S. -- THE TALKS ARE PROGRESSING VERY RAPIDLY. THERE IS ANOTHER SUGGESTION FOR A SPUR TO KUWAIT USING TAPLINE WHICH WOULD BE LINKED UP WITH JORDAN. -- FURTHER, A PIPELINE TERMINATING IN AQABA COULD BE USED TO TRANSPORT OIL THROUGH THE SINAI TO THE MEDITERRANEAN. THIS WOULD BE A NEW STRATEGIC LINE WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE DANGER OF THE CLOSURE OF HORMUZ WITH ALL THAT IMPLIES FOR THE EXPORT OF OIL TO EUROPE AND THE U.S. -- IN SUM, THIS IS A CONCRETE WAY IN WHICH OUR RELATIONSHIPS COULD BE CONSOLIDATED. U.S.-JORDANIAN MILITARY RELATIONSHIP ------------------------------------ 17. KING HUSSEIN MADE THE FOLLOWING POINTS: EXDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO CODEL TOWER MILITARY ADDRESSEE HANDLE AS SPECAT EXCLUSIVE E.O.12356: DECL:OADR TAGS PREL, OREP, JO SUBJECT CODEL TOWER'S MEETING WITH KING HUSSEIN, -- CONCERNING THE CONGRESSIONAL AND PUBLIC PRESENTATION ON THE JOINT LOGISTICS PROGRAM (JLP), IF IT ADVERSELY AFFECTS THE DIGNITY OF JORDAN, WE WILL DROP IT. -- I RECOGNIZE THE COMMUNALITY OF INTERESTS BETWEEN JORDAN AND THE U.S., ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF JORDAN'S INTER-REGIONAL SECURITY ROLE. THE U.S. NEEDS THIS PROGRAM WHICH, ON OUR PART, ENHANCES OUR CAPABILITIES TO PLAY THIS REGIONAL SECURITY ROLE MORE EFFECTIVELY. WE HOPE SOMETHING WILL HAPPEN TO ESTABLISH THIS PROGRAM. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 SECRET 84 3442767 SSO PAGE 009 NC 3442767 TOR: 222322Z FEB 84 -- CONCERNING OUR OWN MILITARY REQUIREMENTS, WE ARE FACING A GROWING PROBLEM FROM OUR NORTHERN BORDER WITH SYRIA. IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT A DECISION HAS BEEN TAKEN BY THE SYRIANS TO INFILTRATE TERRORISTS ACROSS THE SYRIAN-JORDAN BORDER FOR OPERATIONS WITHIN JORDAN AND IN THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES. APPARENTLY THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT HAS GIVEN DISSIDENT ELEMENTS OF THE PLO ASSURANCES THAT THEY WILL RECEIVE ACTIVE SYRIAN SUPPORT. SPECIFICALLY, THE SYRIAN ARMY WILL GIVE THEM MILITARY COVER. IT WILL NOT BE TOO LONG BEFORE ANOTHER 1970 OR 1980 MILITARY BORDER CONFRONTATION BETWEEN SYRIA AND JORDAN OCCURS. -- ACCORDINGLY, WE NEED TO ENHANCE OUR MILITARY CAPABILITIES. -- WE APPRECIATE AND ARE HOPEFUL THAT THE STINGER SALE WILL COME THROUGH. WE HAVE MANY OTHER MILITARY SHORT- FALLS OF WHICH AMBASSADOR VIETS IS FULLY AWARE OF. 18. SENATOR TOWER ASKED, WHO DO THE SYRIANS CONSIDER THE SPOKESMAN OF THE PALESTINIANS AFTER THE ISRAELIS DESTROYED THE MILITARY BACKBONE OF THE PLO IN LEBANON?" HUSSEIN REFERRED TO SYRIA'S PROMOTION OF THE PLO DISSIDENTS WHOM SYRIA CONTROLS. - IF IRAQ EVER GOT OUT OF THE WAR, THE WHOLE SITUATION WOULD BE DIFFERENT IN THE AREA. ALSO, IF THE SAUDIS MOVE COURAGEOUSLY, MUCH CAN BE DONE. IN ANY CASE, WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WORRIED. WE WILL ACT IN OUR LEGITIMATE INTERESTS. 19. SENATOR TOWER ASKED IF SYRIAN OPPOSITION WOULD IMPACT ADVERSELY ON THE GULF STATES. HUSSEIN RESPONDED "ONLY BY INTIMIDATION." 20. TOWER ASKED ABOUT THE EGYPTIAN ROLE. HUSSEIN SAID THAT THEY CAN BE A HELP IN THE NEGOTIATING PROCESS ITSELF TO FIND A COMPROMISE SOLUTION TO PROBLEMS. HOWEVER, EGYPT CANNOT DO MUCH PHYSICALLY. WE ARE STILL FIGHTING THE BATTLE FOR EGYPT'S RE-INTEGRATION, ESPECIALLY IN THE ARAB LEAGUE. 21. SENATOR TOWER ASKED HOW EGYPT COULD BE USED AS A COUNTERWEIGHT TO SYRIA. KING HUSSEIN SAID THAT IT COULD PLAY SUCH A ROLE BUT THAT IT WOULD BE LIMITED. THE KING REFERRED TO JORDAN'S ROLE IN TRAINING THE MILITARY ESTABLISHMENTS IN THE GULF ARAB STATES. HE REITERATED THAT JORDAN WOULD BE WILLING TO ACT IN A EXDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO CODEL TOWER MILITARY ADDRESSEE HANDLE AS SPECAT EXCLUSIVE E.O.12356: DECL:OADR TAGS PREL, OREP, JO SUBJECT CODEL TOWER'S MEETING WITH KING HUSSEIN, SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 SECRET 84 3442767 SSO PAGE 010 NC 3442767 TOR: 222322Z FEB 84 CRISIS BUT THAT JORDAN NEEDS ENHANCED CAPABILITIES. SENATOR TOWER COMMENTED THAT THERE IS A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ENHANCEMENT OF JORDANIAN CAPABILITIES AND THE REACTION OF THE GULF STATES TO JORDAN'S INTER- REGIONAL SECURITY ROLE. 22. REFERRING TO THE SAUDIS AND THEIR ROLE IN LEBANON, THE KING SAID THAT THE REPORTED EIGHT-POINT SAUDI PLAN WAS PRESENTED AS A PACKAGE DEAL. IT WAS UNDERSTOOD. WE WERE TOLD AT LEAST, THAT IF THE SYRIANS DIDN'T COME ALONG THE SAUDIS WOULD TAKE A STRONG STAND AGAINST THEM. AMIN GEMAYEL ACTED ON THE PLAN AND THE SYRIANS REJECTED IT. SAUDI POLICY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. 23. SENATOR TOWER ASKED ABOUT ARAFAT'S PLANS TO COME TO JORDAN. THE KING SAID THAT HE IS EXPECTED HERE BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH. HUSSEIN REITERATED THAT HE WANTS ARAFAT TO BE HERE WITH HIS EXECUTIVE COUNCIL AND PNC MEMBERS. ALSO, HE WOULD WANT WEST BANKERS TO BE PRESENT IN AMMAN DURING HIS TALKS WITH ARAFAT. SENATOR TOWER REMARKED THAT ARAFAT IS A SLIPPERY FISH. HUSSEIN SAID THAT HE IS GOING TO MAKE SURE THAT WE CLOSE ALL THE NETS. 24. SENATOR TOWER SAID THAT HE AND THE MAJORITY OF HIS COLLEAGUES ON THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE WILL SUPPORT THE ADMINISTRATION'S REQUESTS ON JORDAN'S ARMS REQUIREMENTS. THERE IS A GREAT AWARENESS AND A MUCH MORE SOPHISTICATED PERCEPTION OF WHAT YOU ARE TRYING TO DO, TOWER STATED. HOWEVER, YOUR RECOMMENDA- TION TO ADOPT MAJORITY RULE AND DEPART FROM CONSENSUS WITHIN THE ARAB LEAGUE AND ARAB SUMMIT MEETINGS IS A POINT OF CONCERN. EVEN IF ALL THE ARAB MODERATE STATES AGREE TO A SOLUTION, AND SYRIA DISSENTS, THEN WHAT ARE THE ALTERNATIVES? KHADDAM TOLD THE SENATOR THAT ARAFAT IS IRRELEVANT AND THAT SYRIA IS NOT INTERESTED IN AP- PROVING AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN ARAFAT AND THE KING. 25. HUSSEIN SAID THAT THE ALTERNATIVES WILL BE INCREASED TERRORISM AND POSSIBLY MILITARY CONFRONTATION. WASHINGTON BELIEVES THAT IT CANNOT PROVIDE JORDAN THE ASSISTANCE IT NEEDS UNTIL WE HAVE EMBARKED ON THE PEACE PROCESS ITSELF. WE HAVE A DIFFERENT VIEW. WE NEED TO KNOW THE U.S. POSITION NOW AND WE NEED U.S. HELP BEFOREHAND. 26. CONGRESSMAN MC CAIN ASKED HUSSEIN WHAT THE U.S. SHOULD DO IN LEBANON. SENATOR TOWER SAID THAT THE AVERAGE AMERICAN DOES NOT ATTACH THAT MUCH IMPORTANCE TO LEBANON. 27. KING HUSSEIN ANSWERED THAT THE TOTAL ABANDONMENT OF LEBANON AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE U.S. UNDER PRESSURE MEANS IN THE EYES OF THE PEOPLE IN THE AREA THAT THE U.S. IS WITHDRAWING FROM THE AREA. THE MAY 17 AGREEMENT WAS SERIOUSLY FLAWED. EVEN THOUGH IT SPECIFICED THE WITHDRAWAL OF ISRAELI FORCES FROM LEBANON, IT GAVE THE SYRIANS AND THE SOVIET UNION A PRETEXT TO INCREASE THEIR INFLUENCE NOT ONLY IN LEBANON BUT IN REGIONAL AFFAIRS. THE LEBANESE ARMY IS THE LEBANESE PEOPLE. UNFORTUNATELY, IT HAS NOW BEEN BROKEN UNDER STRESS. THE U.S. MUST CONTINUE ITS COMMITMENT IN THE REGION SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7 SECRET PAGE 011 NC 3442767 TOR: 222322Z FEB 84 BUT IT MUST CHANGE ITS EMPHASIS. IF IT DOES NOT OUR ENEMIES WILL MAXIMIZE THEIR POSITIONS." THE U.S. MUST NOT FORGET LEBANON, BUT IT MUST WORK ON TWO TRACKS. EXDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO CODEL TOWER MILITARY ADDRESSEE HANDLE AS SPECAT EXCLUSIVE E.O.12356: DECL:OADR TAGS PREL, OREP, JO SUBJECT CODEL TOWER'S MEETING WITH KING HUSSEIN, ONE ON LEBANON AND ANOTHER ON THE ARAB-ISRAELI PEACE PROCESS. AT THE SAME TIME THE U.S. SHOULD ENHANCE ITS RELATIONSHIPS WITH ALL ITS FRIENDS IN THE REGION. IT IS REALLY TRAGIC TO SEE THE U.S. PITTED AGAINST THE JUMBLATT'S AND BERRIS. IF LEBANON GOES, THERE IS CONCERN ON OUR PART OVER THE FATE OF 400,000 PALESTINIANS WHO WILL BE DIVIDED BETWEEN SYRIA AND ISRAEL. IF THE TREND CONTINUES LEBANON WILL BECOME ANOTHER RADICAL STATE IN THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOVIET UNION. 28. SENATOR TOWER SAID THAT IF WE MOVE* TOWARD THE PARTITION OF LEBANON IT WILL NOT BE IN EVEN SYRIA'S INTEREST FOR IT COULD LEAD TO A MILITARY CONFRONTATION WITH ISRAEL. THE LATTER WILL DESTROY SYRIA. HUSSEIN SAID THAT THERE IS A CONFLUENCE OF INTERESTS THAT IS PERCEIVED BETWEEN SYRIA AND ISRAEL IN TERMS OF POLARIZATION IN THE AREA. 29. SENATOR TOWER COMMENTED THAT WHEN HE MET WITH LABOR LEADER PEREZ THERE WAS A TENDENCY TO YIELD BACK TERRITORIES, STOP SETTLEMENTS, AND TO COUNTER SYRIAN MILITARY PRESSURE IN LEBANON. BUT IF THERE IS ANYTHING THAT COULD BOLSTER SHAMIR'S GOVERNMENT AND REUNIFY THE COUNTRY IT WOULD BE THE PROSPECT OF HAVING TO GO TO WAR AGAIN WITH SYRIA. IN THE LAST ANALYSIS, SENATOR TOWER SAID THAT HE ADMIRES THE KING AND THE KING'S DEDICATION IN TRYING TO UNTIE THE KNOTS OF THE ARAB-ISRAELI PROBLEM. KING HUSSEIN THANKED THE SENATOR AND SAID, "LET'S TRY TO UNTIE THE KNOTS TOGETHER." 30. CODEL DID NOT SEE THIS CABLE PRIOR TO HIS DEPARTURE. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/25: CIA-RDP90BO137OR000801030003-7