EXCERPTS FROM ASST. SEC. MURPHY'S JULY 25 APPEARANCE BEFORE HAMILTON SUBCOMMITTEE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90B01370R000801060020-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 2, 2008
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: July 27, 1984
• Content Type: CABLE

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INCOMING
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84 4774605 SUO PAGE 001 NC 4774605
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STAT
00 RUEAIIB
ZNR UUUUU ZOC STATE ZZH
00 RUEHC
DE RUEHC #1130 2090222
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
0 262334Z JUL 84
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN IMMEDIATE 0000
RUEHBL/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT IMMEDIATE 0000
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO IMMEDIATE 0000
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS IMMEDIATE 0000
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM IMMEDIATE 0000
RUEHJI/AMEMBASSY JIDDA IMMEDIATE 0000
RUEHRH/USELO RIYADH IMMEDIATE 0000
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV IMMEDIATE 0000
BT
UNCLAS STATE 221130
E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PREL, US. XF
SUBJECT: EXCERPTS FROM ASST. SEC. MURPHY'S JULY 25
APPEARANCE BEFORE HAMILTON SUBCOMMITTEE
FOLLOWING ARE EXCERPTS FROM THE QUESTION AND ANSWER
PORTION OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY MURPHY'S HEARING BEFORE
THE HAMILTON SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS
COMMITTEE, JULY 25, 1984:
0: ONE OF THE THINGS THAT SURPRISED ME ABOUT YOUR
STATEMENT IS THAT SYRIA, WHICH HAD BEEN DESCRIBED AS THE
TROUBLEMAKER IN THE REGION, IS NOW DESCRIBED AS-ONE OF -
THE HELPFUL PARTNERS IN THESE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS.
0: MAYBE YOU COULD EXPLAIN TO ME IF IT IS SOMETHING
OTHER THAN JUST THE PASSAGE OF TIME AND TIMES CHANGING.
IS THERE SOME MOTIVATION, IS THERE SOME ULTERIOR MOTIVE
WITH SYRIA THAT HAS CAUSED THEM TO CHANGE THEIR APPROACH?
A: I THINK THAT THAT THEY HAVE COME TO A POLICY DECISION
THAT A STABLE LEBANON, AND A STABLE BEIRUT IN THE VERI
FIRST INSTANCE, IS THE BASIS TO WORK FOR GREATER
STABILITY IN THE REGION. SOMETHING UNDER THEIR DIRECT
INFLUENCE. HOW. WHY HAVE THEY CHANGED, HOW QUICKLY HAVE
THEY CHANGED.... PERHAPS IT WAS WHAT THE CHAIRMAN
REFERRED TO. THE NEED TO HAVE SYRIA INVOLVED IN THE PEACE
PROCESS AND THEY FELT THEY WEREN'T BEING INVOLVED. I AM -
SPECULATING BECAUSE READING SYRIAN POLITICS IS THROUGH A
DARK GLASS.
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Q: MR. AMBASSADOR, I AM GLAD THAT MR. TSCHAU PICKED UP
ON THAT BECAUSE I HAD THAT CIRCLED AS WELL. LET ME GET
TO THAT FIRST. I AM A LITTLE BIT DISTRESSED OVER YOUR
CHOICE OF THE WORD "HELPFUL". I SUPPOSED YOU ARE TAKING
IT SOLELY OUTSIDE THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF THE LAST FEW
YEARS AND DEALING WITH IT SOLEY ON THE BASIS OF WHAT HAS
HAPPENED IN THE LAST MONTH OR TWO, I ASSUME.
Q: STILL ALL AND ALL DON'T YOU IT TO BE RATHER DIFFICULT
FOR US TO SWALLOW TO CALL THEM HELPFUL? FORGETTING ABOUT
ALL THE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PAST. WOULDN'T YOU SAY THAT
IT WOULD HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL IF THEY WOULD GET OUT OF
LEBANON TOTALLY? -
SOMEBODY THROWS YOU DOWN A WELL A HUNDRED FEET YOU ARE
NOT VERY HAPPY AND THEN WHEN THEY THROW YOU A BUCKET AND
THEY HAUL YOU UP FIFTY FEET AND YOU CAN SEE THE LIGHT AT
THE TOP OF THE WELL YOU FEEL A LOT BETTER AND YOU CALL
THEM HELPFUL, BUT YOU NEVER WOULD HAVE BEEN DOWN THERE IN
THE FIRST PLACE IF THEY HADN'T THROWN YOU DOWN THERE. I
AM CURIOUS ABOUT WHAT WE ARE DOING TO PROMOTE ALL THIS
WONDERFUL EUPHORIC HELP THAT THE SYRIANS, OUR GOOD
FRIENDS. ARE NOW GIVING US?
A: I DON'T THINK WE ARE DOING ANYTHING, CONGRESSMAN, TO
PROMOTE THAT. I THINK THEY HAVE FOUND IT IN THEIR
INTEREST TO SHIFT COURSE.
0: HOW LONG DO WE THINK THEY ARE GOING TO SUSTAIN THAT
SHIFT IN COURSE? OR ARE WE JUST HOPING THAT THEY WILL DO
IT OUT OF THE GOODNESS OF THEIR HEARTS FOR THE FORSEEABLE
FUTURE.
A: OBVIOUSLY THEY ARE INTERESTED IN THE WITHDRAWAL OF
ISRAELI FORCES FROM LEBANON AND THEY HAVE STATED TO
REPEATED VISITORS THAT ONCE THAT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED
THEY WILL GET THEIR OWN FORCES OUT OF LEBANON, THAT THEY
DON'T HAVE AN INTEREST IN KEEPING A SINGLE SYRIAN SOLDIER
IN THE COUNTRY.
Q: PRIOR TO 1982 ISRAEL DIDN'T HAVE ANY FORCES IN
LEBANON AND SYRIA REALLY HAD NO NEED, THERE WAS NO LONGER
ANY PLO UPRISING. ETC., BUT THEY CHOSE NOT TO REMOVE
THEIR FORCES OUT OF LEBANON. WHAT MAKES YOU BELIEVE NOW
IN THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE, WHICH I THINK SHEDS SOME
LIGHT ON THIS ISSUE, THAT EVEN IF ISRAEL WOULD WITHDRAW
THAT THE SYRIANS WOULD SEE FIT TO LEAVE? ON WHAT BASIS
NOW, AS OPPOSED TO EIGHT YEARS THAT THEY DID NOT?
BECAUSE THEY HAVE BEEN ASKED TO?
0: I KNOW THEY HAVE BEEN ASKED TO AND THEY HAVE FLATLY
REFUSED ON ANY NUMBER OF OCCASIONS.
A: AGAIN I CAN'T GIVE YOU AN ASSURANCE THEY ARE GOING TO
LEAVE BUT I THINK THAT CONDITIONS COULD COME ABOUT THAT
THEY WOULD FIND IT IN THEIR INTEREST TO LEAVE BECAUSE OF
THEIR RELATIONS WITH SOME OTHER MAJOR ARAB COUNTRIES THAT
WOULD LIKE THEM TO GET OUT AND NOT PROVIDE AN EXCUSE FOR
ISRAEL TO STAY. VARIOUS FORMULA HAVE BEEN BANDIED ABOUT,
OF SYNCHONIZED WITHDRAWAL TO BEGIN IMMDIATELY AFTER
ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL, THAT SORT OF THING, 24 HOURS, 48
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HOURS.... ALL SORTS OF IDEAS HAVE BEEN TALKED ABOUT OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS. BUT I THINK THAT SYRIA FELT
BACK IN 75 THAT IT COULDN'T COPE WITH THE LEBANESE SCENE
JUST POLITICALLY. IT HAD TRIED A YEAR OF DIPLOMACY AND
THEN THEY MOVED IN 76, IF YOU RECALL, AT THE REQUEST OF
THE THEN PRESIDENT OF LEBANON, AND I THINK THEY GOT STUCK
IN LEBANON. WHILE THEY INTEND TO BE A MAJOR INFLUENCE IN
LEBANON, WHICH THEY SEE AS THEIR HISTORIC RIGHT, I DON'T
BELIEVE THEY SEE THAT REQUIRES THEIR KEEPING AN ARMY IN
LEBANON.
0: JUST ONE HISTORICAL POINT, I JUST READ AN INTERESTING
BOOK AND ONE OF THE THINGS I RECALL NOW THAT I HADN'T
REMEMBERED IN A NUMBER OF YEARS, IS THAT SYRIA DOESN'T
HAVE MUCH OF A HISTORY. IT WAS CREATED AS A STATE AFTER
THE FIRST WORLD WAR. THERE WAS A DIVVYING UP OF SOME OF
THE TERRITORIES OF PART OF THE TURKISH EMPIRE. ONE OF
THEM WAS SYRIA. DID THAT PART OF SYRIA INCLUDE LEBANON
AT THAT TIME, OR WASN'T LEBANON A SEPARATE TERRITORY, ONE
OF THOSE CEDED TO THE ARAB STATES AFTER THE FIRST WORLD
WAR.
A: I THINK YOU HAD THE FIRST MOVE TOWARDS A SEPARATE
TERRITORY UNDER THE OTTOMANS DURING THE NINETEENTH
CENTURY. THEN WHEN THE MANDATES CAME THERE WAS A LINE ON
THE MAP AND WHEN INDEPENDENCE WAS AGREED BY THE FRENCH IN
THE LAST PART OF THE SECOND WAR THE LEADERS IN DAMASCUS
AND BEIRUT AND THE LEADERS IN PARIS APPARENTLY CAME TO AN
UNDERSTANDING THAT THERE WOULD BE AN INDEPENDENT LEBANON,
BUT AS, AMONG OTHER THINGS, SYMBOLIC OF THE VERY GREAT
CLOSENESS OF THE TWO TERRITORIES THERE WOULD BE NO SYRIAN
AMBASSADOR IN BEIRUT AND NO LEBANESE (AMBASSADOR) IN
DAMASCUS AND THAT LEBANON WOULD NEVER SERVE AS A CORRIDOR
FOR A THREAT AGAINST SYRIA, THAT LANGUAGE THAT WE HEARD
ABOUT LAST YEAR A GREAT DEAL.
0: SO THE HISTORICAL FACT IN PERSPECTIVE IS THAT SYRIA
NEVER TO ANY GREAT EXTENT HAD ANY CONTROL OR SWAY OVER
LEBANON AND FRANKLY ITS HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF BEING
ABLE TO COME IN AND OUT OF LEBANON AND NOT EVEN HAVE A
BORDER DRAWN ON ITS OWN MAPS IS REALLY NOT ACCURATE IN
TERMS OF HISTORICAL HISTORY. IN TERMS OF RECENT 20TH
CENTURY DEVELOPMENTS IN ANY EVENT. -
A: WELL. HISTORY WAS A PATCHWORK QUILT OUT THERE WITH A
NUMBER OF DIFFERENT LINES DRAWN AT DIFFERENT TIMES BY THE
TURKS AND THEN DURING THE MANDATE PERIOD. IT WAS PART OF
GREATERSYRIA AT ONE TIME IN HISTORY. BUT IF YOU EXAMINE
LINES ON A MAP BEFORE THE FIRST WAR THERE ARE A LOT OF
NEW LINES THAT WERE DRAWN AT THAT POINT IN TIME.
(THE PEACE PROCESS)
0: IS MUCH LIKELY HAPPEN THIS YEAR (ON THE PEACE
PROCESS) UNTIL AFTER OUR ELECTIONS?
A: OUR ELECTIONS ARE OBVIOUSLY A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE
CALCULATIONS OF THE PARTIES.
0: YOU INDICATE THAT YOU STILL STAND BY THE REAGAN PEACE
INITIATIVE OF SEPTEMBER 1982, HOW CAN THAT INITIATIVE
HAVE ANY FUTURE IF THE ISRAELIS REJECT IT, JORDAN IS
UNABLE TO ENTER ANY TALKS ON IT AND SYRIA'S LEFT OUT?
A: ON THE VARIOUS ELEMENTS OF YOUR QUESTION, THE
GOVERNMENT OF PRIME MINISTER BEGIN DID REJECT THE
PRESIDENT'S INITIATIVE. WE HOPE THAT ON LONGER
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REFLECTION THAT REJECTION WILL NOT STAND. IN TERMS OF
JORDAN I THINK THE KING AND THE GOVERNMENT OF JORDAN
REMAIN INTERESTED IN MOVING INTO THE PEACE PROCESS. IN
TERMS OF OUR OWN SUPPORT FOR THE INITIATIVE, OBVIOUSLY
THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY THAT WE PUT INTO THE PROCESS IS
GOING TO EFFECT HOW IT MOVES AHEAD. SYRIA SHOULD
DEFINITELY BE INVOLVED.
0: WHAT IS OUR FOCUS FOR THE MOMENT ON THE PEACE TALKS?
IS IT TRYING TO GET ISRAELI/JORDANIAN TALKS STARTED? ARE
WE MAKING THAT KIND OF EFFORT OR AREN'T WE DOING MUCH OF
ANYTHING AT THE PRESENT TIME.
A: THE NEXT STEP, AS WE HAVE VISUALIZED IT EVER SINCE
THE EGYPTIAN/ISRAELI PEACE TREATY WAS TO BROADEN THE
TALKS TO INCLUDE JORDAN AND REPRESENTATIVE PALESTINIANS.
IN THE OVERALL PEACE PROCESS THAT WOULD PROBABLY REMAIN
THE NEXT ESSENTIAL STEP. HOW TO CREATE THE FRAMEWORK
WHERE THAT STEP WILL PROVE POSSIBLE FOR THE KING TO TAKE
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
0: THE PEACE TALKS HAVE BEEN BROKEN OFF SINCE FEBRUARY
OF 1982, THAT IS ABOUT TWO AND A HALF YEARS NOW. ARE WE
TO CONCLUDE THAT THE AUTONOMY TALKS UNDER THE CAMP DAVID
PROCESS ARE FINISHED? AND IF THEY ARE RESUMED. WILL HAVE
TO RESUMED IN SOME DIFFERENT KIND OF FORUM?
A: WE HAVE SAID THAT WE CONSIDER THE AUTONOMY TALKS
UNDER THAT FRAMEWORK AND WE STATED THAT TO THE EGYPTIANS
AND PUBLICLY IN THE COURSE OF 1982 SO WE WOULD NOT EXPECT
THAT AUTONOMY TALKS COULD GO FURTHER FORWARD WITH ONLY
0: ARE THE EGYPTIANS OR THE ISRAELIS PUTTING CONDITIONS
ON A RETURN TO THE PEACE TALKS AND IF SO WHAT ARE THE
CONDITIONS?
A: THE EGYPTIANS DO NOT CONSIDER THAT THEY HAVE ANYTHING
FURTHER TO NEGOTIATE, THAT THERE WOULD BE ANY POINT IN
PUSHING NEGOTIATIONS FURTHER IN THAT FRAMEWORK. THE
ISRAELIS HAVE PUT NO SUCH CONDITION, THEY WOULD LIKE TO
SEE THEM RESUMED IF POSSIBLE WITH JORDAN AND THE
REPRESENTATIVE PALESTINIAN.
A: NO, THERE IS NO SUCH CONDITION THAT I AM AWARE OF,
SIR.
0: HAVE THE EGYPTIANS SAID THAT WE MUST HAVE OTHER ARAB
GOVERNMENTS PRESENT?
A: YES. THEY HAVE SAID THAT THE FORMER MAKEUP WAS
INSUFFICIENT TO CARRY THINGS FORWARD.
0: AND THAT OTHER ARAB GOVERNMENTS HAD TO BE PRESENT?
A: YES.
0: HAVE THEY SAID THAT THERE WILL BE NO TALKS TILL
ISRAEL LEAVES LEBANON?
A: I DON'T BELIEVE THEY HAVE DRAWN THAT CONNECTION, MR.
CHAIRMAN. THEY HAVE SAID THAT IN CONNECTION WITH THE
RETURN OF THE EGYPTIAN AMBASSADOR TO TEL AVIV, AS YOU ARE
AWARE.
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AND ... PROBABLY LIKE EVERYBODY ELSE. . .BECAUSE NOBODY KNOWS
WHERE IT IS GOING EXACTLY, DO YOU EXPECT ANY MAJOR SHIFT
IN POLICY BASED ON WHAT IT KNOW LOOKS LIKE, THAT
OBVIOUSLY THE COALITION GROUPS ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO
SOME DEGREE TO CONTROL WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE MAJOR
PARTIES? IT WAS AN INTERESTING ELECTION, THEY GAVE AN
ELECTION THAT NOBODY WON. IS THERE GOING TO BE ANY
CHANGE IN POLICY?
A: I DON'T THINK I SHOULD GO INTO ANY SPECULATION ON
THAT. I THINK ISRAELIS ARE UNITED DNA NUMBER OF
POLICIES INTERMS OF SECURITY, IN TERMS OF THE ROLE THEY
WANT ISRAEL TO HAVE IN THE REGION AND IN THE WORLD. JUST
WHAT THE SPECIFIC IMPLICATIONS ARE GOING TO BE FOR THE
PEACE PROCESS -- I DON'T THINK IT IS PROFITABLE TO
SPECULATE AT THIS POINT. EVEN NOW THERE ARE VARIOUS
LEADERS OF THE SMALLER PARTIES COMING FORWARD TO SAY THEY
WOULD SUPPORT THIS OR THAT MAJOR PARTY. IT IS TOO
CONFUSED TODAY.
Q: ONE FINAL QUESTION. ON PAGE EIGHT (OF THE PREPARED
TESTIMONY) YOU TALKED ABOUT JORDAN'S MAINTAINING A
CONTINUING INTEREST IN SEEKING A POLITICAL SOLUTION TO
THE CONFLICT WITH ISRAEL. CAN YOU EXPAND ON THAT A
LITTLE AND TELL ME WHAT DISCUSSIONS YOU MAY HAVE HAD WITH
THE REPRESENTATIVES FROM JORDAN IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS, ON
WHICH OU BASE THAT STATEMENT AFTER THE RATHER
UNFORTUNATE STATEMENTS THAT THE KING MADE ABOUT TWO
MONTHS AGO. AND IF IN FACT THEY ARE INTERESTED IN
SEEKING POLITICAL SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT HAVE THEY
TALKED TO ISRAEL ABOUT IT AS FAR AS WE KNOW? OR ARE THEY
INTERESTED IN TALKING TO OTHER PEOPLE BUT NOT TO ISRAEL?
A: TO ANSWER YOUR LAST QUESTION I DON'T THINK THERE HAVE
BEEN ANY TALKS WITH ISRAEL, NO. WE HAVE CONSISTENTLY
FOUND IN AMMAN THAT THE KING AND HIS ADVISORS ARE LOOKING
FOR A WAY TO MOVE TOWARDS PEACE.
0: HAVE YOU SUGGESTED TELEPHONES. ALL THE NUMBERS IN
JERUSALEM AND TEL AVIV ARE ALL LISTED. ALL THEY HAVE TO
DO IS PICK UP A PHONE.
Q: SO DO WE. SERIOUSLY ARE THERE ANY INDICATIONS YOU
HAVE GOTTEN FROM CONVERSATIONS THAT THEY STILL INTERESTED
IN MAINTAINING SOME KIND OF DIRECT PROCESS.
A: YES BUT THEY DON'T KNOW HOW TO GET INTO IT. YOU
REMEMBER LAST YEAR, APRIL 1983, I THINK THERE WERE FOUR
FACTORS THAT KEPT THE KING FROM MOVING AT THAT TIME.
ONE, THERE WAS NO AGREEMENT WITH THE PLO, THERE WAS NO
CERTAINTY THAT HE WOULD NOT BE CUT OFF AT THE PASS
FINANCIALLY BY HIS BENEFACTORS ELSEWHERE IN THE ARAB
WORLD.
A: YES. THERE WAS NO PROSPECT AS HE SAW IT OF A DEAL
WITH THE THEN GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL, THE WAY THEY
DESCRIBED THEIR POLICY. AND HE WASN'T SURE ABOUT OUR
CONSTANCY, ABOUT OUR EFFORT THAT WE WOULD PUT INTO THE
PEACE PROCESS. SO ALL OF THOSE FOUR LED TO A BREAKDOWN
WHICH STARTED WITH THE INABILITY OF THE PLO TO GIVE HIM
THE BLESSING. IF YOU WILL. TO GET INTO THE PROCESS.
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WITH THREATS OR
SOME
OTHER
KIND OF
LEVERAGE THAT
IT
MAY
HAVE EXERCISED
OVER
HIM?
YOU DON'T
BELIEVE THAT
WAS
A
DECISION MADE BY ARAFAT ALONE DO YOU?
A: I THINK THE FACTS ARE THAT ARAFAT INITIALED OR HAD
WORKED OUT SOME SORT OF DRAFT WITH THE KING. THEY WENT
OFF TO KUWAIT, HE AND HIS LIEUTENANTS AND THE DECISION
WAS NO.
Q: I DON'T WANT TO BELABOR THE POINT MR. MURPHY, BUT,
AND I HOPE YOU ACCEPT IT IN THE SPIRIT IN WHICH IT IS
OFFERED. BUT THAT COMMENT ABOUT THE HELPFUL PLAYER FOR
SYRIA, SO CLOSE IN PROXIMITY TO A TIME WHEN AMERICAN
FAMILIES STILL GRIEVING A LOSS, THE DEATHS OF THEIR OWN
SONS, WITH SYRIA AT LEAST HAVING BEEN COMPLACENT IN THEIR
MURDERS, REALLY IS INAPPROPRIATE AND I HOPE YOU WILL
ACCEPT THAT FOR THOSE ON YOUR OWN STAFF IN THE STATE
DEPARTMENT WHO WROTE THAT. I THINK IT WAS A VERY
UNFORTUNATE CHOICE OF WORDS. I KNOW THE POINT HAS BEEN
MADE.
NOW THAT THIS CONGRESSIONAL AND PRESIDENTIAL TERM IS
COMING TO AN END I WONDER WHETHER AT THIS POINT WE CAN
SAY THAT THE SEPTEMBER 1982 INITIATIVE, IS THAT FINAL
STATEMENT OF THE ADMINISTRATION STILL ON THE TABLE?
STILL THE OPERATIVE POLICY OF THIS ADMINISTRATION?
A: YES. IT IS AND WE HAVE SEEN NO BETTER SET OF IDEAS
TABLED SINCE IT WAS PRESENTED IN SEPTEMBER 1982.
0: ARE WE ABOUT TO ANNOUNCE A BILATERAL DEFENSE PACT
WITH ISRAEL?
A: NO SIR, THERE IS NO SUCH PLAN AND NO SUCH STUDY IS
UNDERWAY.
Q: THERE HAVE BEEN SUCH REPORTS IN THE ISRAELI PRESS.
A: I AM AWARE OF THEM. I CAN DENY THEM.
Q: IF THERE WERE SUCH PACTS CONTEMPLATED YOU WOULD BE IN
TOUCH WITH US WOULD YOU NOT, IN THE CONGRESS AND THIS
COMMITTEE?
A: YES SIR.
0: ARE THERE TALKS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL
NOW FOCUSSING ON HOW TO COUNTER THE SOVIET UNION IN THE
REGION?
A: YOU ARE REFERRING TO THE TALKS UNDER THE JOINT
POLITICAL MILITARY GROUP, MR. CHAIRMAN?
A: THOSE TALKS WHICH HAVE GONE THROUGH NOW TWO ROUNDS,
ONE IN JANUARY AND ONE IN JUNE, THE FIRST IN WASHINGTON,
THE SECOND IN ISRAEL, HAVE BEEN CARRYING OUT WHAT THE
PRESIDENT ANNOUNCED LAST NOVEMBER WHEN HE DESCRIBED THE
CREATION OF THE GROUP WHICH IS TO STUDY POSSIBLE WAYS OF
COOPERATION IN OUR MUTUAL SECURITY INTEREST, GIVING
PRIORITY ATTENTION TO THE THREAT POSED BY INCREASED
ACTIVITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST REGION.
0: WHAT SOVIET THREATS ARE WE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE
REGION?
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A: WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE INFLUENCE GAINED BY THE
SOVIET UNION BY ITS MAJOR ARMS SUPPLIES,...
A: OVER SYRIA, TO SYRIA, IN ONE INSTANCE.... THEY HAVE,
YOU KNOW A MAJOR SUPPLY ALSO TO IRAQ. THEY ARE....
A: KUWAIT HAS OVER THE YEARS BEEN DIVIDING ITS PURCHASES
BETWEEN THE SOVIETS, THE FRENCH. THE BRITISH AND
OURSELVES. THERE HAS BEEN THIS RECENT VISIT TO MOSCOW OF
THE DEFENSE MINISTER. WE DON'T HAVE THE SPECIFICS ON
WHAT WAS AGREED THERE, BUT I DON'T THINK THAT IS GOING TO
BE ANY MAJOR SWITCH IN KUWAITI POLICY.
Q: ARE WE NOW INVOLVED WITH ISRAEL IN CONTINGENCY
PLANNING? -
A: WE, AS ANNOUNCED, TALKED OF CONTINGENCY PLANNING,
POSSIBLE JOINT EXERCISES AND STUDY OF MEANS AND
DESIRABILITY OF PREPOSITIONING EQUIPMENT IN ISRAEL.
A: THOSE TALKS ARE GOING FORWARD. FORMAL SESSIONS WERE
IN JANURARY AND LATE JUNE, AND ANOTHER SESSION IS
SCHEDULED FOR DECEMBER.
A: AS MUTUALLY AGREED WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL WE
ARE NOT GETTING INTO THE SPECIFICS, THE SUBSTANCE OF
THOSE DISCUSSIONS, BUT THAT IS THE BROAD OUTLINE OF THE
AREAS ON WHICH WE HOLD OUR DISCUSSIONS.
Q: THE ONLY AGREEMENT THAT HAS BEEN REACHED IS WITH
RESPECT TO MEDICAL PLANNING?
A: THERE HAS BEEN A MEDICAL EXERCISE IN FACT, I BELIEVE
IN LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE.
0: ON THE PRESS REPORTS OF U.S. - ISRAELI MILITARY
PLANNING CONCERNED WITH SOVIET ACTIVITIES, POSSIBLY JOINT
ACTIONS, OR PLANNING AT A MINIMUM, THAT WE HAVE BEEN
READING ABOUT IN THE PRESS, .... ARE YOU PREPARED TO SAY
THAT IT IS IN FACT ACCURATE, THAT WHAT PLANNING IS TAKING
PLACE IS DESIGNED TO COUNTER POSSIBLE SOVIET MOVES?
A: THAT WAS THE INTENTION AND SO DEFINED BY THE
PRESIDENT LAST LAST NOVEMBER WHEN THE JOINT GROUP WAS
ESTABLISHED.
A: IT IS BY MUTUAL AGREEMENT WITH ISRAEL THAT WE DO NOT
DISCUSS THE SUBSTANCE OF THE NEGOTIATIONS AND THE
DISCUSSIONS UNDERWAY. BUT THAT IS OUR PRIMARY INTEREST.
0: HOW SERIOUS DO WE JUDGE THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN
ISRAEL RIGHT NOW TO BE.... IF THERE IS NOT A STRONG
GOVERNMENT TO TAKE ACTION.... DO WE ANTICIPATE ANYTHING
LIKE AN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE?
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DISASTER OR COLLAPSE. BUT THE FACTS ARE THAT IN THE LAST
YEAR INFLATION HAS GONE FROM TWO HUNDRED TO FOUR HUNDRED
PERCENT PER ANNUM. NOW THE ISRAELI CITIZEN, LARGELY
DOESN'T FEEL IT BECAUSE OF INDEXATION AS YOU KNOW, BUT
THE PROBLEMS -- HIGH INFLATION, SLACK INVESTMENT, WANING
INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS AND CONSEQUENT BALANCE OF
PAYMENTS DIFFICULTIES -- THEY ARE ALL THERE AND DESPITE
THE MEASURES THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS TAKEN IN THE LAST
FEW YEARS TO RESPOND TO THE PROBLEMS. THE MEASURES HAVE
BEEN INSUFFICIENT AND IT IS GETTING WORSE. WILL IT ONE
DAY, IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME, GO INTO HYPERINFLATION,
COULD IT ZOOM OFF.... HURWITZ MADE A GLOOMY PREDICTION
THAT IT COULD HIT A THOUSAND PERCENT AS EARLY AS
SEPTEMBER.... NOW THAT IS THE VISION THAT SOME ISRAELIS
ARE SPEAKING OF. SO IT IS A SERIOUS SITUATION. THERE IS
A SERIOUS MANAGEMENT SITUATION. PROFITABILITY IS DOWN.
REAL WAGES HAVE WAY OUTSTRIPED PRODUCTIVITY RISES, ALL OF
THOSE FACTORS HAVE BEEN AT WORK AND IT HAS GOT TO BE
DEALT WITH. IT IS GOING TO BE VERY PAINFUL AND DIFFICULT.
0: IS THE U.S.-ISRAELI DIALOGUE ON ECONOMIC ISSUES
CONTINUING?
A: IT IS, VERY MUCH SO. BOTH GOVERNMENTAL AND USING A
PRIVATE GROUP OF AMERICAN ECONOMISTS TO TRY TO THINK
THROUGH SOME OF THE PROBLEMS.
0: IS ANY CONSIDERATION BEING GIVEN AT THE PRESENT TIME
TO A FURTHER OR SUPPLEMENTAL ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE PROGRAM
FOR ISRAEL?
0: IS THE UNITED STATES CONSIDERING THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THE DOLLARIZATION OF THE SHEKEL?
A: IT WAS AN INTERESTING IDEA IS ALL I CAN SAY. IT GOT
SHOT DOWN IN ISRAEL FOR POLITICAL REASONS LAST FALL.
Q: A TRIAL IS NOW GOING ON IN ISRAEL AGAINST SOME
ISRAELIS INVOLVED ATTACKS ON PALESTINIANS. ARE ANY OF
THOSE ISRAELIS HOLDERS OF AMERICAN PASSPORTS?
0: HAS OUR CONSULATE IN JERUSALEM BEEN INVOLVED IN ANY
WAY IN PROVIDING TO AMERICANS IN JAIL?
A: THAT IS ONE OF ITS BASIC JOBS, TO STAY IN CONTACT
WITH OUR CITIZENS IN JAIL.
0: BUT NONE OF THEM ARE INVOLVED IN THE ATTACKS ON THE
PALESTINIANS?
0: THERE ARE SOME REPORTS THAT ISRAEL HAS ASKED THE
UNITED STATES TO TAKE BACK SOME STATELESS BLACK AMERICANS
WHO RENOUNCED THEIR U.S. CITIZENSHIP AS PART OF THEIR
MEMBERSHIP IN THE BLACK HEBREWS CULT. HAVE ANY OF THE
MEMBERS OF THAT GROUP BEEN READMITTED INTO THE U.S.?
A: I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ANY OF THEM HAVE AS YET
RETURNED TO THE U.S., BUT THERE IS A PROCEDURE FOR THEM
TO FOLLOW IF THEY WANT TO RECLAIM CITIZENSHIP.
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0: DO WE HAVE A POSITION ON THEIR RETURN TO THE U.S.?
A: LET ME CHECK. I AM SURE THAT IF THEY MEET
REQUIREMENTS FOR ASSUMING CITIZENSHIP .... I DON'T BELIEVE
THEY COULD GO ONTO THE WAITING LIST AS INTENDING
IMMIGRANTS, BUT AGAIN I WOULD LIKE TO CLARIFY THAT FOR
THE RECORD.
0: IS THERE ANY EVIDENCE THAT THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT WAS
INVOLVED IN THE RECENT NIGERIAN KIDNAPPING CASE IN LONDON?
A: NONE THAT I AM AWARE OF.
0: HAVE WE ASKED THE ISRAELIS ABOUT THAT?
A: I DON'T KNOW IF THERE HAS BEEN A DIRECT QUESTION, BUT
IT HAS THE EARMARKS OF A FREELANCE OPERATION.
Q: IN RECENT DAYS ISRAEL HAS TAKEN SOME ACTIONS AND I AM
WONDERING IF WE HAVE MADE ANY COMMENT ABOUT THEM. ONE
WAS THE GROUND BREAKING ON FIVE NEW SETTLEMENTS BEFORE
THE ELECTION. DO WE OBJECT TO THOSE?
A: I DON'T BELIEVE THERE WAS A SPECIFIC COMMENT MADE
HERE OR THERE ABOUT THOSE FIVE SETTLEMENTS. BUT OUR
POLICY ON SETTLEMENTS IS UNMISTAKABLY CLEAR AND HAS BEEN
RESTATED MANY MANY TIMES.
OBJECT TO THAT? - -
A: I DON'T THINK IN EACH CASE, NO.
0: THE ISRAELIS PREVENTED A PALESTINIAN JOURNALIST FROM
THE WEST BANK FROM COMING TO THE U.S. FOR THE POLITICAL
CONVENTIONS. DID WE SAY ANYTHING ABOUT THAT?
A: YES WE HAVE. THEY HAVE SAID THEY WERE NOT GOING TO
GIVE HIM PERMISSION TO TRAVEL BECAUSE HE WAS A KNOWN PLO
SUPPORTER. WE HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE TO THAT EFFECT AND
WE ARE CONTINUING TO FOLLOW THAT UP WITH THE ISRAELI
AUTHORITIES.
0: COULD YOU GIVE US YOUR ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION IN
SYRIA IN TERMS OF PRESIDENT ASSAD'S HEALTH, HIS PROSPECTS
FOR SURVIVAL AND POLITICALLY WHAT APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING
IN RESPECT TO WHAT SEEMS TO BE JOCKEYING FOR POSITION IN
WHAT WOULD BE A POST ASSAD SYRIA -- HIS BROTHER AND OTHER
ELEMENTS.
Q: I THINK THE JOCKEYING HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN. HE
IN CONTROL, HE IS BACK AT THE DESK AND HE IS RUNNING
SYRIA. BUT THERE ARE PROBABLY ARE TENSIONS UNDER THE
SURFACE THERE AND CONCERNS ABOUT SUCCESSION. HE MOVED
BACK INTO HARNESS PRETTY FULLY TWO AND HALF TO THREE
MONTHS AFTER THE ORIGINAL ILLNESS.
BEIRUT MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. SHULTZ
END OF MESSAGE UNCLASSIFIED
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