AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90B01390R000100070003-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 6, 2012
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: July 29, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/06: CIA-RDP90B01390R000100070003-9
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/06: CIA-RDP90B01390R000100070003-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/06: CIA-RDP90B01390R000100070003-9
STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE
German Study Encourages Development
C Of AVitactical Ballistic Missiles
By Michael Feazel
Bonn?Soviet Union has tested conven-
tionally armed tactical ballistic missiles,
more destructive conventional warheads
and an antimissile version of its SA-12
antiaircraft missile, potentially giving it
the ability to launch a conventional pre-
emptive strike that would destroy all ma-
jor command, control, sensing and
antiaircraft assets in Europe, according to
a new German study.
The testing increases pressure for devel-
opment of a new antitactical ballistic mis-
sile (ATBM) system in Europe, according
to the Konrad Adenauer Foundation here.
The system probably would be based ini-
tially on an upgraded version of the
Raytheon Patriot surface-to-air missile,
but could eventually use more exotic
weapons such as directed energy weapons
and electromagnetic rail guns.
The ATBM also could use other tech-
nology derived from the U. S. Strategic
Defense Initiative research program?pri-
marily advanced sensors and command
and control technology, the report said.
But the government-financed foundation,
which is affiliated with the governing
Christian Democratic Party, said studies
on ATBMs began before President Rea-
gan proposed the SDI and the require-
ment for ATBMs is unrelated to SDI.
The report is intended to encourage
public support for the ATBM systems,
but it also includes extensive information
from the North Atlantic Treaty Organiza-
tion-sponsored AGARD studies of
ATBM systems. AGARD (Advisory
Group for Aerospace Research and Devel-
opment) produced a classified report on
ATBMs in 1980 and has updated it regu-
larly since. The information on Soviet test-
ing comes from NATO and German
government sources.
The Soviet testing detailed in the report
encompasses three categories:
? The Soviet Union has tested a con-
ventionally armed version of its SS-12
Scaleboard tactical ballistic missile. Con-
ventionally armed SS-1 Scud tactical bal-
listic missiles have been used in the
Iran-Iraq war.
? Air-dropped Fuel-Air Explosive
(FAE) conventional explosives have been
tested in Afghanistan. An FAE bomb
dropped from an aircraft caused destruc-
tion throughout a 400-meter (437-yard)
radius. The FAE warhead, along with
chemical weapons, makes conventionally
armed ballistic missiles more feasible.
? The SA-12 Gladiator antiaircraft mis-
sile has been tested against a Scaleboard
surface-to-surface ballistic missile in Sovi-
et tests. The improved SA-I2 Giant with
ATOM capability, which is in the experi-
mental phase, is expected to approximate-
ly equal the effectiveness of an improved
Patriot, foundation officials said.
Tests of conventionally armed ballistic
missiles have been so successful that the
Soviet Union is expected to begin equip-
ping SS-21 and SS-23 missiles with con-
ventional warheads "in the very near
future," the report said.
Available Warheads
As part of the AGARD study, experts
at NATO's Supreme Headquarters Allied
Powers Europe estimated as many as 40%
of all Soviet ballistic missiles may eventu-
ally be equipped with conventional war-
heads. The foundation report said as
many as six different conventional war-
heads for ballistic missiles may already be
available to the Soviets for each tactical
ballistic missile type.
The potential for conventionally armed
ballistic missiles will further strain Eu-
rope's air defense system, the report said.
"The air defense situation in Europe al-
ready is almost catastrophic," Thomas
Enders, defense analyst for the Adenauer
Foundation and author of the report, said.
"Until now NATO has been relying on
many weapons which have been outdated
since the kite 1960s. The Patriot is helping
some, but the ballistic missiles cause prob-
lems all over again. We have to make the
next step to extended air defense.-
The conventional ballistic missile war-
heads are considered a particularly dan-
gerous new threat because they could
allow the Soviets to launch a nonnuclear
strike that could eliminate virtually all
NATO command and control and air de-
fense assets. Until an ATOM system is
deployed, NATO is defenseless against
such attacks.
Conventionally armed ballistic missiles
have not previously been considered eco-
nomically justifiable because they were
not accurate enough to guarantee the de-
struction of the high-value targets at
which they would be aimed.
Improvements in Soviet missile accura-
cy, combined with the new conventional
warheads, are making the conventional
ballistic missiles easier to justify, accord-
ing to the foundation study. It said the
U. S. estimates a circular error probable
(CEP) of about 30 yards for Soviet SS-2I
and SS-23 missiles.
The wide radius of destruction of FAE
warheads is decreasing the accuracy re-
quirement at the same time. "In the event
of an attack with high-accuracy short-
range ballistic missiles, the overpressure
GE Designing SP-100 Space Reactor
To Produce 100-300 Kw. of Power
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84 AVIATION WEEK SPACE TECHNOLOGY/July 7, 1986
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/06: CIA-RDP961301390R000100070003-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/06 CIA-RDP90B01390R000100070003-9
generated by an FAE warhead would be
sufficient to damage above-ground con-
crete structures such as aircraft shelters
and ammunition bunkers, and perhaps
even underground command posts," the
report said.
The report said German Defense Minis-
ter Manfred Woerner's proposed Extend-
ed Air Defense System for defending
against tactical ballistic missiles is more
feasible than the proposed European De-
fense Initiative. EDI, which is endorsed
by groups such as High Frontier-Europe,
would rely more immediately on both di-
rected energy weapons and space-based
defenses.
"The purpose of this report was to get
the discussion focused on extended air de-
fense instead of EDI," Enders said.
"There is strong opposition to SDI in
Germany, so there is a need to separate
the two. We could not successfully con-
duct the antitactical missile discussion un-
less we could get away from SDI."
Woerner convinced other NATO de-
fense ministers to continue studies of the
Extended Air Defense System during a
meeting in Brussels in May (Aws:si June
2, p. 69). The next step is for the NATO
nations to agree on a threat analysis say-
ing conventionally armed ballistic missiles
are an important threat.
General Electric SP-100 space nuclear
reactor is being designed to provide 100-
300 kw. over a period of 10 years for
various U. S. space-based systems. The
fast spectrum, liquid lithium cooled SP-
100 reactor will use thermoelectric con-
version techniques, but the basic reactor
design is compatible with dynamic con-
version systems, such as Stirling engines,
that could produce power levels in excess
of a megawatt in the future, according to
General Electric officials. Reactor thermal
energy in the SP-100 is transported by a
primary pumped liquid loop to the area
along the inside of the conical main pow-
er generation section. It is then trans-
ferred to thermoelectric conversion
assemblies mounted on the inside of the
radiator panels that surround the 12-sid-
ed cone. The system could be used to
power various Strategic Defense Initiative
systems in space and is considered es-
sential by the U. S. Air Force and Navy as
the power source for a space-based wide
area surveillance radar, long desired by
both services. Critical design review is
scheduled for 1988. Testing will begin in
1991 at the Hanford Engineering Devel-
opment Laboratory, Hanford, Wash.
For Germany, the next step would be
acquisition of an upgraded software pack-
age that would improve the Patriot's self-
defense and point-defense capability
against ballistic missiles. If the software
development to allow the missiles' fire
control system to deal with ballistic mis-
siles' higher speeds is successful and the
U. S. Army acquires it, Germany "almost
certainly" will do the same in the late
1980s, Enders said. That could be fol-
lowed by an improved Patriot warhead in
the early 1990s.
Upgraded Radar
An upgraded radar also would be neces-
sary to make the Patriot fully effective
against ballistic missiles. The Patriot
would either have to have a second radar
sweeping the ballistic approaches or the
original radar would have to be equipped
to move quickly from its normal horizon
sweep to an elevation of about 70 deg.
The nations also are considering equip-
ping the Patriots with an additional boost
stage to improve its velocity. The addi-
tional boost stage would require new
launchers. The additional velocity would
be most important for intercepting longer-
range missiles such as SS-20s, which have
more exoatmospheric flight and higher
speeds. Current Patriot speeds probably
would be adequate for shorter-range tacti-
cal ballistic missiles.
The improved Patriots can be particu-
larly effective in a "mission kill" role
against conventional ballistic missiles, the
foundation said. The Patriot could carry
out a mission kill by deflecting an incom-
ing conventional warhead too far from its
target to be effective, since high accuracy
is needed for a conventional attack.
Some SHAPE planners have said equip-
ping Patriots and other surface-to-air mis-
siles for ballistic missile defense could
make them too expensive to use against
conventional aircraft and cruise missiles.
The foundation study does not estimate
the cost of improved Patriots.
"We have no idea of the cost," Enders
said. "But if it is feasible to make them
multifunctional [against aircraft as well as
ballistic missiles] it would certainly be
much less expensive than having two sepa-
rate systems."
The nations also could decide to up-
grade only a limited number of Patriots
for the more expensive antimissile role,
Enders said. "The big question is mix," he
said. "That is not only the mix bet ween
antimissile and antiaircraft, but between
active missile defense and passive mea-
sures such as hardening and mobility."
The Raytheon Hawk air defense missile
might be upgraded to have some anti-
missile capability, but "the system could
only acquire a limited self-defense capabil-
ity if any against tactical ballistic mis-
siles," the report said. Predevelopmcnt
phase work is also being done on a "medi-
um-SAM" replacement for the Hawk for
deployment in the late 1990s which could
have ATBM capability. Work is being
done at Messerschmitt-Boelkow-Blohm
and Aerospatiale (Aw&sT Apr. 21, p. 75).
The extended air defense system is not
conceived as a blanket defense for all of
Europe. Instead, it would focus primarily
on point- and arca-defense protecting the
high-value targets that would be the most
likely targets for conventionally armed
ballistic missiles. The system would be
equally effective against nuclear-armed
missiles, and designers said it probably
would be impossible to tell the difference
between nuclear and conventional war-
heads in flight.
ATBM capability against nuclear war-
heads has raised questions about whether
the extended air defense system would vi-
olate the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
The report said the treaty would not be
violated because it applies only to strate-
gic weapons and the ATBM would have a
significant capability only against shorter-
range tactical missiles.
'Disproportionate Share'
The U. S. is encouraging ATBM activi-
ty in Europe, but has decided against tak-
ing a leading role. The report said the
U.S. is willing to pay "a disproportionate
share" of the costs and already has agreed
to finance system architecture studies.
"The first step toward such a venture,
however, would have to be made by the
Europeans since Washington was tired of
advancing proposals for the defense of Eu-
rope, only to be subsequently vituperated
by the Europeans," the study said.
The study encourages continued re-
search on both rail guns and directed en-
ergy weapons, but said neither is likely to
be effective before the turn of the century.
NATO should not rely only on ATBM
defenses, Enders said. He said the West-
ern allies also should be working on their
own conventionally armed ballistic mis-
siles, probably based on Patriot or Lance
boosters, for use against high-value Soviet
targets such as airfields and communica-
tions centers. Such a deployment is likely
to face political opposition, however. "In
the light of the agonizing [Pershing 2 and
cruise missile] debate in the early 1980s, it
is doubtful whether [such a] response is
still available or politically feasible," the
foundation report said. 0
AVIATION WEEK 6 SPACE TECHNOLOGY/ally 7, 1986 85
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