PERU: THE GARCIA ADMINISTRATION AND PROSPECTS FOR COMMUNIST INROADS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90G01359R000200010034-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 13, 2011
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: July 15, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/13: CIA-RDP90GO1359R000200010034-0
Central Intelligence Agency
Office of the Deputy Director for Intelligence
2 August 1985
NOTE TO: Admiral James D. Watkins
Chief of Naval Operations
Attached is the paper we spoke about on
the telephone.
Robert M. Gates
Deputy Director for Intelligence
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/13: CIA-RDP90GO1359R000200010034-0
 M: ' K h. '1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/13: CIA-RDP90GO1359R000200010034-0
Central Intdligcnce Ageng'
W s ngpo t a r 20505
DIRSC.'IORATE OF INI'EILI( NCE
15 July 1985
Peru: The Garcia Administration and
Prospects for Co munist Inroads
summary
'i1 36-wear old Alan Garcia, who takes office on 28 July,
parlayed a magnetic personality, youthful dynamism, and a
vision of a more egalitarian society for Peru into electoral
victory. The leftwing social democrat can count an widespread
popular support in the early going, but the severity of the
country's econamic difficulties, increasingly lethal. leftist
terrorism, and a rapidly expanding illicit narcotics industry
are formidable challenges. Garcia's slowness in elaborating
concrete programs to deal with these problems and in selecting
a LX:C3.. %" - ------ --- 25X1
considerable political uncertainty in the months ahead.
The congressional majority obtained by Garcia's American
popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA) gives him an edge in
attesting to implement new programs to ease Peru's problems.
His major opposition will come from the Marxist-Leninist
dominated United Left coalition and from a Caanist--controlled
labor confederation whose membership comprises same 40 percent
of organized workers. We judge that moderate center-right
opposition parties, tarred by President Belaunde's poor
performance and their an failure to present a unified
electoral slate, are likely to have little impact in the early
stages of the Garcia administration. By carefully cultivating
the military, Garcia has been able to overcome the officer
corps' Longstanding antipathy toward APRA. 25X1
This typescript was requested by the National Security Council, and
prepared by the office of African and Latin American 25X1
l as
Analysis with contributions from other analysts in that office as well the
fran the Office of Central Reference, the Office of Global Issues, a
Office of Soviet Ana sis. It responds to specific questions posed in the
tasking memorandum. 25X1
ALA-M-85-10075
S E C R E T
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/13: CIA-RDP90GO1359R000200010034-0