SPAIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90G01359R000200090009-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 13, 2011
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: March 13, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/13: CIA-RDP90GO1359R000200090009-0
DDI #01193-86
13 March 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, EURA
NIO/Europe
SUBJECT: Spain
1. Further to my telephone conversation with John
McLaughlin, I think it would be a good idea to go back and assess
why we were wrong on the outcome of the Spanish NATO
referendum. From the NIE to typescripts and current
intelligence, we consistently conveyed a pessimistic view that
Gonzalez could bring off a victory. In one recent typescript,
for example, the most optimistic scenario discussed was the
outside pos i ili of a very narrow win -- "the best he could
hope for."
2. I am even more disturbed by John's indication to me
that, in fact, a number of the analysts felt "in their gut" that
Gonzalez would be victorious. If so, that view certainly was not
conveyed to me much less anyone in the policy community in any of
our written materials. In the Political Instability Quarterly,
we take note of the fact that sometimes analysts' instincts go
contrary to the evidence and we even have a special column in the
checklist where an instinctive assessment can be expressed -- and
explicitly acknowledged as an analyst's "gut feel." I would like
to know why, if the analysts felt this way, it somehow did not
emerge in some respect in any of our assessments.
3. Because this story has a happy ending, I doubt that we
will receive much outside criticism. For our own benefit,
however, I believe we should closely examine this case and
reflect on lessons that could be applied in the future.
Robert MC) Gates
Deputy Director for Intelligence
cc: C/MPS/PES
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/13: CIA-RDP90GO1359R000200090009-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/13: CIA-RDP90GO1359R000200090009-0
SUBJECT: Spain
Distribution:
Original - D/EURA
1 - NIO/Europe
1 - DDI
1 - DI Action File
1 - DDI Registry
O/DDI/RGATES:I /13MAR86
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/13: CIA-RDP90GO1359R000200090009-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/09/13: CIA-RDP90GO1359R000200090009-0
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