LIC COUNTRY APPROVAL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90M00551R001400750002-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2014
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: May 2, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

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MEMORANDUM FOR:
VIA:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
ICS 4242-88
2 May 1988
Deputy Director, Intelligence Community Staff
Director, Planning and Policy Office A
?
Deputy Director, Planning and Policy Office
Senior Policy Ofticer, Planning and Policy Office
LIC Country Approval
LOSE
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10 SEP 1908 STAil
1. ACTION REQUESTED DD/ICS approve the list of Third World countries and
regions circulated for IG(LIC) member consideration (see Attachment). IG(LIC)
member approval of the proposed list is required to allow further Intelligence
Community analysis leading to LIC Working Group develo ment of a prioritized
list requiring attention from the LIC community.
2. BACKGROUND
a. SIG(LIC) approved preparation of a priority list of countries of
policy importance to the United States which face actual and
otential low intensity conflicts at the 8 March 1988 meeting.
b. A LIC Intelligence Working Group subcommittee chaired by the
DDI/OGI representative developed a methodology to identify
potential LIC countries and prepared a "straw man" list for
dissemination to policy community officials.
3. DISCUSSION
a. The "first-cut" effort of the subcommittee resulted in
submission of a draft survey to be critiqued by the LIC Working
Group as a first step in obtaining IG(LIC) approval. The
suggested list was based on input from selected DoD, CIA, and
DOS personnel that was further evaluated against NIE 7-86,
Outlook for Sudden Change in Key Developing Countries.
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SUBJECT: LIC Country Approval
b. The LIC Working Group formally reviewed the subcommittee
proposed survey at a 18 April meeting and developed a list which
is based on such issues as proximity to maritime choke points,
key natural resources and minerals, trade, narcotics, terrorism,
and military access to basing rights.
c. The refined list is currently in circulation (see Attachment) to
IG(LIC) members from the Acting Chairman, LIC Working Group, for
concurrence as a baseline for additional evaluation under the
aegis of the Intelligence Working Group. Future steps to be
taken include:
- Desk level officers in DIA, CIA, NSA, and State/INR for
each country on list will be asked to identify existing and
potential LIC problems in their country and describe what
impact these problems may have on US interests in their
region.
- The list will be presented to the IG and SIG after the LIC
Working Group reaches consensus for evaluation and
approval. Upon approval by the SIG, the prioritized list
will be used to guide the LIC Working Group long-term
policy integration effort by helping identify where
attention can most profitably be placed.
d. Approval of the list will provide a starting point designed to
focus analytical efforts on countries of economic, political,
and strategic importance to the United States. DIA and CIA
representatives (DDI and DDO) have recommended approval of the
circulated list.
4. RECOMMENDATION DD/ICS approve the list of countries identified in the
Attachment. Decision can be indicated below. The LIC Working Group Acting
Chairman will be notified telephonically by the LIC Intelligence Working Group
Chairman of the decision.
Attachment:
Straw Man Country List
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SUBJECT: LIC Country Approval
APPROVED:
Deputy Director, Intelligence Welynity tatt uate
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SUBJECT: LIC Country Approval
DISTRIBUTION: (ICS 4242-88)
Original - Addressee
2 - D/PPO
3 - PPO Subject
4 - PPO Chrono
5 - ICS Registry
DCl/ICS/PPO
(2 May 1988)
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MEMORANDUM FOR THE LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT WORKING GROUP
FROM:
SUBJECT:
Straw Man Country List
Please review the attached memo and country list with your IG
member. Emphasize that we are refining a straw man that will
be used as the basis for additional analysis. Once we have
developed a recommended priority list, we will seek full
interagency clearance.
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MEMORANDUM FOR THE INTERAGENCY GROUP FOR LOW INTENSITY
CONFLICT
FROM:
STAT
SUBJECT:
"Straw Man"
List of
Important Third World
Countries
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Issue
To approve
a list of important Third World countries and
regions to
serve as a starting point for identifying priority
low intensity conflict situations which threaten US
interests.
Background
The National Security Decision Directive for Low Intensity
Conflict, signed in June 1987 by President Reagan, states
that "a process must be established to ensure that low
intensity conflict situations are recognized early." In
response, the Senior Interagency Group for LIC has approved
the preparation of a priority list of countries of policy
importance to the United States which face actual and
potential low intensity conflicts.
The Intelligence Sub-Group of the LIC Working Group has
been tasked to do the analysis to support making the priority
list. Their methodology is to first identify a manageable
number (30-40) of Third World countries and regions of
significant policy importance to the U.S. The sub-group will
next conduct an in-depth analysis of each country and region
on the list to determine the level of threat that low
intensity conflict poses to U.S. interests in that
country/region. The Intelligence Sub-Group will then report
its assessments to the LIC Working Group which will develop a
recommended priority list of those countries and situations
that should receive special attention from the LIC community.
This priority list will be submitted to the IG and the SIG
for discussion and approval.
Discussion
The LIC Working Group has reviewed the sub-group's proposed
starting list of important Third World countries. After
making some changes, the Working Group reached consensus that
the list at Tab A contains those countries/regions that the
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sub-group should focus on in the second phase of their
analysis.
Note that this list is only a starting point designed to
focus analytical efforts on countries of economic, political,
and strategic importance to the United States. We ask that
you approve the list or suggest additions and/or deletions.
Please submit your responses, through your LIC working group
representative, to by Tuesday, May 3.
Attachments
Tab A
Tab B
Country List
Rationale
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Initial List of Important Countries/Regions
in the Third World
Latin America
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Caribbean Region
Chile
Colombia
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Near East South Asia
Afghanistan
Cyprus
Egypt
Gulf Coop. Council States
India
Iran
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
TAB A
Peru
Africa
Horn of Africa
Liberia
Nigeria
Southern Africa
Sudan
Zaire
East Asia and Pacific
Indonesia
Philippines
Singapore
South Pacific Region
Thailand
SEE EXPLANATORY NOTES NEXT PAGE
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NOTES:
Countries in the following groups were not considered:
NATO
Major non-NATO Allies (Japan, Australia, New Zealand,
Israel, South Korea)
Warsaw Pact
These countries were excluded because they are not Third
World states and their alliance with the United States or the
Soviet Union places them beyond the intended scope of LIC
strategy.
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LATIN AMERICA
Argentina -
Bolivia -
Brazil -
Caribbean -
Chile -
Colombia -
El Salvador -
Guatemala -
Honduras -
Mexico -
Nicaragua -
Panama -
Peru -
AFRICA
Horn of Africa -
Liberia -
Nigeria -
Southern Africa -
Country List/Rationale
TAB B
economic (debtor), regional security and
stability, democratic interests, nuclear
proliferation
narcotics
economic power and debtor status, weapons
production/sale, democratic interests,
regional stability
geostrategic location, narcotics
foreign subversion (Soviet and Cuban),
democratic interests
narcotics, geostrategic location,
democratic interests
symbolic, democratic interests,
geostrategic location
geostrategic location, democratic
symbolic, geostrategic location,
democratic, U.S. military basing
immigration, geostrategic location,
democratic, debts, oil, common border
key to central American stability
canal, military basing
narcotics, geostrategic location,
democratic
geostrategic location, military basing
geopolitical, communications facilities,
military access
oil, Libyan and Iranian meddling,
democratic interests
strategic minerals, geostrategic location,
economic, potential for creation of
hostile states
Sudan - Soviet and Libyan influence
Zaire - U.S. military, strategic minerals,
geostrategic location
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NEAR EAST/SOUTH ASIA
Afghanistan - Soviet occupation, geostrategic location
Cyprus - geopolitical, regional stability, NATO
impact
Egypt - economic, geopolitical, Mideast Peace Plan
GCC States - oil, allies, economic, geostrategic
location
India - democratic, geostrategic location, Soviet
influence, nuclear proliferation
Iran - oil, state adventurism, geostrategic
location
Iraq - regional stability
Jordan - pro-west, regional stability
Lebanon - terrorism, narcotics, regional stability
Maghreb state adventurism, geostrategic location,
threat to U.S. facilities in Med., control
Gibralter, friends in Tunisia and Morocco
Pakistan -
nuclear proliferation, military
facilities/ally, supports Afghan
resistance
Syria - terrorism, regional player/stability,
Soviet connection
EAST ASIA/PACIFIC
Indonesia -
Philippines -
Singapore -
South Pacific
Region -
Thailand -
geostrategic location, oil
U.S. military basing, traditional ally,
geostrategic location
economic, geostrategic location
allies, maritime environment
regional stability, ASEAN leader, support
to Cambodian resistance
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