THE PHILIPPINES: EXPLORING VIEWS ON THE US MILITARY BASES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T00114R000200970003-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: August 24, 1987
• Content Type: MISC

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Secret
The Philippines: Exploring Views
on the US Military Bases
Secret
EA M 87-20158/S
24 August 1987
Copy
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24 August 1987
The Philippines: Exploring Views on the US Military Bases
Information as of 24 August 1987 was used in this report
Philippine public opinion will probably play an
unprecedented role in negotiations between Manila and
Washington about the future of US bases at Clark and Subic,
especially since the new Constitution specifies that a new
military bases agreement that must be negotiated by 1991 may
also be submitted to a referendum. A variety of polls indicates
a majority of Filipinos support the continued presence of the
US military facilities and a national plebiscite now would
probably reflect that sentiment. Nonetheless, poll results also
suggest widespread ignorance and ambivalence about aspects of
the bases, such as the perceived. increased risk of nuclear
attack. Between now and 1991, the Philippine leaders who will
determine the terms of a new agreement and the public who will
ultimately accept or reject it are susceptible to well-directed
propaganda campaigns by either side that play to the public's
concerns on such issues as sovereignty, the economic impact, or
Filipinos on the Bases--A Sampling of Public Opinion
"It is the United States that needs the bases more. I would
not simply say let the United States do its own thing, that
we want to be free from this. We can't even if we wished
to. We have five to six years and within that time let's
see what happens to (Russian and US arms talks). We are not
makers of our own destiny."--Ambassador to the US Emmanuel
"They (the bases) are helpful. If the bases were not
there many Filipinos would lose their jobs. Many
Filipinos benefit from them."--Manila security guard.
EA M 87-20158/S
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"I hear that Filipinos are treated as second-class
citizens inside the bases. We are like foreigners inside
our own country.... It is also true what they say that
the military bases are under Filipino command only
superficially and ceremonially. We have to have
equality. Even if they pay millions for rent we should
have sovereignty in our country."--Manila university
"We are afraid of war.... I wonder if the bases are for
our defense, or are they... (going to) embroil us in
another war."--Mita Pardo de Tavera, now Secretary of
"We all know [sic] that the US pays rental for its bases
in Spain, Greece, Turkey, and where have you. Why are we
Filipinos getting the short end of the stick? ...It's
time to cut ourselves fully free from the apron strings
of America."--Columnist Max Soliven.
Philippine public opinion surveys on the bases are scarce,
and most of them predate the Aquino administration. Almost all
the polls reviewed, however, show a generally positive attitude
toward the bases. Polls taken in 1985 and 1986 show that across
age groups, educational levels, and for both urban and rural
areas, the majority believe the bases should be kept or even
expanded. The most recent data, from June 1987, show a
substantial majority of the population favor retaining the US
facilities--at least under certain circumstances--with only a
small minority of respondents believing that the military bases
agreement should be allowed to lapse or be terminated.
Attitudes on the base-related issues appear to vary with
education. Respondents with no more than a high school
education were most strongly committed to the bases. Polls
suggest that the better educated--a group believed to be more
representative of Philippine decisionmakers--are the group most
critical of the basing arrangements, however. Respondents with
only an elementary school education generally appear to be less
opinionated on these issues.
When asked to indentify the benefits of the bases to the
Philippines, the majority of all respondents in the polls
examined saw a definite economic and security advantage to the
US military presence. However, Filipinos in all groups are
clearly concerned by the added risk of nuclear attack they
believe the bases represent. Sixty-eight percent of the Manila
respondents in a June poll said that the bases added at least a
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fair amount to the risk of being a target. Findings from a 1985
poll are similar; 57 to 75 percent linked the bases with qn
increased risk of nuclear attack. University-educated
respondents registered the highest rate of concern.
The polls further indicated that older respondents, rural
interviewees, and those who had attended only elementary school
often responded by saying they "did not know. (1) This
distinction is most evident in the responses to questions in a
1985 poll asking if the bases are worth the risks they involve.
About 30 percent of these groups responded that they did not
know.
Filling in the Gaps--Filipinos' Views on The Issues
The probases view of the majority probably conceals many
underlying attitudes on the bases issue. Filipinos' opinions of
the US military installations probably are a mixture of
attitudes about several core issues involving sovereignty and
the US role in the Philippine economy, with security concerns
playing a secondary role.
National sovereignty. Sovereignty is probably the single
most important issue dividing opponents and supporters of the
bases. Probases Filipinos argue that the bases are the result
of an agreement between two sovereign states, and point to US
concessions to Manila's sensitivities during earlier reviews of
the agreement as signs of good faith. During the 1970s, for
example, Washington reduced the area under US control at both
Clark Air Base and Subic Bay, and also conceded that the US
bases are within Philippine facilities under a Philippine
military commander.
To antibase Filipinos, however, the bases are overt symbols
of their country's close--some would say stifling--connection
to its former ruler. They argue that symbolic concessions do
not alter the fact that the agreement allows the United States
"unhampered" use for military operations, and because Manila
has no control over US activities at the facilities, the bases
violate sovereignty. Some nationalists worry that Washington
could use the bases in a manner inimical to Philippine
interests and without Manila's approval, such as to backstop
operations in the Middle East.
The left, including the Communist Party, argues that the
bases are Trojan horses, allowing Washington to intervene at
will in Philippine affairs. Accusations in the local press
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about alleged) )activities launched from the
bases help to confirm these fears. In addition, opponents
believe that preservation of the bases so dominated US
relations with the Marcos government that the US turned a blind
eye to Marcos's self-enrichment, and that continuing a
relationship based so strongly on the bases only presages a
similar "US-Aquino dictatorship."
The provisions that give the United States primary legal
jurisdiction over US personnel and offenses against the United
States or US personnel and their dependents are another facet
of the military bases agreement that many Filipinos view as an
affront to Philippine sovereignty. The United States uses
similar procedures with its NATO allies, but some Filipinos
view these arrangements as a criticism of their judicial system
and a reminder of their former colonial status. This perception
is inflamed by sensationalist press exposes on alleged criminal
behavior b US personnel or brutality against local Filipinos.
Economic considerations. Data suggest that most Filipinos
agree hosting the US bases makes good economic sense. In
addition to bringing in nearly $200 million a year in economic
and military assistance, the bases are the second-largest
employer in the country, after the Philippine Government
itself. There are approximately 40,000 jobs for Filipinos on
Clark Air Base and Subic Naval Base, plus sizable offbase
employment generated by the US presence. It is estimated that,
all told, the bases add over $500 million a year to the
Philippine economy, an amount equivalent to about 1.5 percent
of national income. Closing the bases, supporters say, would
lead to a surge in unemployment--a concern echoed by working
class Filipinos recently interviewed.
Many opponents believe the economic argument exaggerates
the value of the bases. They argue that the US installations
spawn a "brothel economy" of bars, prostitution, and narcotics
trafficking rather than solid development, while increasing the
country's dependence on aid and "other hand-outs" from the
United States. In any event, most Filipinos are probably
embarrassed by the tacky sprawl outside the US facilities, and
those opposed to the bases see Olongapo and Angeles City as
miniature examples of the Philippines' "distorted" economic
relationship with the United States. Antibase Filipinos also
argue that the bases' removal would not be an economic calamity
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because industrial development at the same sites could absorb
the former employees and allow the Philippines to pursue "truly
independent" economic development.
Mutual Defense and Security Issues. Defense Secretary lleto
has argued publicly that the US military presence provides a
security umbrella for the Philippines that Manila cannot afford
to develop. A strong majority of Filipinos--between 70 and 80
percent, depending on how the question is formulated--appear to
agree that the bases deter foreign aggression
Nevertheless, press reports lindicate
skepticism in some segments of the population about the value
of the bases to Philippine defense. Many Filipinos--including
some senior officials and legislators--are so preoccupied with
their country's internal problems that they doubt that there
is, or will be in the near future, a credible external threat.
Opponents of the bases also argue that if Manila allows the
storage of nuclear weapons at the US facilities, then the
Philippines is in danger of a nuclear accident or a nuclear
attack. Although propaganda from the Soviets and the Philippine
radical left fans these anxieties, they are made plausible by
Japanese attacks on US military installations in Central Luzon
during World War II, and nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island
and Chernobyl.
From the standpoint of internal security, some Filipinos
may view the bases as assurance that the United States would
intervene militarily if the Communists appeared on the brink of
victory. A significant number may believe that the removal of
the bases would allow the Communists to take over.
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1. The 1980 Philippine census indicated that about 64 percent
of the population lived in rural areas. Based on data
extrapolated from the 1980 census, it is estimated that the
over-40 age group will constitute about 20 percent of the
population in 1990. Current statistics on the number of people
who have completed only primary education are unavailable, but
1980 data indicate that about 65 percent of the adult
population would fall into this category.
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