PROPOSED NIE ON SOVIET ARMS CONTROL ARMS CONTROL OBJECTIVES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T00435R000100050008-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: May 23, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

C/JV/G!
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/16: CIA-RDP90T00435R000100050008-9
ET
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
23 May 1988
NOTE FOR: VC/NIC, NIOs/USSR, SP, GPF
FROM: C/NIC
SUBJECT: Proposed NIE on Soviet Arms Control Objectives
Please send me your thoughts on this by COB 25 May so we can draft a
proposed response for Judge Webster.
arms control objectives as they relate to NIEs
You will have received the attached memo from D/DIA to the DCI proposing
an NIE on Soviet arms control objectives. From what I know about the
origins of this proposal, I believe the audience and purposes of such an NIE
are not as clear as they might be. Moreover, to the extent the principal
intended audience needs basic education and/or imaginative intelligence
input to an ongoing policy process, an NIE may not be the best way to supply
these. And further, the proposed subject matter -- namely, how the Soviets
use arms control to advance their interests in a strategic competition
against us, as opposed to reconciling their interests with ours -- could be
expected to excite some really lively controversies.
For all these reasons, I want to be very careful and thoughtful about
signing up to the project and, at the least, to do some recce around the
policy community, particularly in OSD, to identify the real need. Whether
or not we commit to an NIE on this subject, we shall have to address Soviet
Attachment: As Stated
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/16: CIA-RDP90T00435R000100050008-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release IA//C
2013/05/16: CIA-RDP90TOO435R000100050008-9
CW /c
ACTION
INFO
DATE
INITIAL
1
DCI
X
2
DDCI
X
3
EXDIR
4
D/ICS
x
5
DDI
6
DDA
,
7
DDO
8
D &T
Chm/NIC
X
10
11
IG
12
Compt
13
D/OCA
14
D/PAO
15
D/PERS
16
D/Ex Staff
17
18
19
20
21
122
,
Remarks
To # 9: Your recommendation and
response for DCI signature, please.
(coA) rc ; Nt/s (V SS/2
p "~ e N t O) c p f Execut' a Secretary
RR
19 M-'
3637 0") /V I G / $ )o
-
Date
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release
2013/05/16: CIA-RDP90TOO435R000100050008-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/16: CIA-RDP90T00435R000100050008-9
S-329/DE I o nay 1700 -NT
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
SUBJECT: Request for National Intelligence Estimate (U)
1. (S/NF) As you are well aware, providing intelligence support for arms
control negotiation, verification, and monitoring has been a priority
effort for the entire Intelligence Community. One area, however, where
additional work needs to be done is in the analysis of Soviet arms control
objectives.
2. (S/NF) To date, this effort has tended to focus on Soviet political
objectives in arms control and the Soviet assessment of force structure
needs as derived from targeting requirements. What is needed is a more
comprehensive Intelligence Community assessment of Soviet objectives which
goes beyond these areas. Such an effort should include assessment of
possible Soviet attempts to affect the correlation of forces in both the
conventional and nuclear arenas in the post-agreement environment. For
example, the estimate should examine possible Soviet objectives to improve
Soviet or limit Western military capabilities by affecting the development
of new systems or technologies, or selectively constraining Soviet systems
of growing vulnerability or decreasing utility, or selectively protecting
Soviet systems important to the future correlation of forces. Such an
effort should also include an assessment of possible Soviet objectives to
affect stability in the post-agreement environment. For example, the
estimate should examine Soviet objectives to affect force structures on
both sides so that they would contribute to decreasing the likelihood of
the development of crises, of crises escalating to conflict, or of conflict
escalating to higher levels of violence.
3. (S/NF) In requesting the National Intelligence Council to undertake
the sponsorship of such an interagency effort, I recognize this adds to the
already heavy national estimates production workload. Because of the
importance of the subject, however, I believe the estimate proposed here
should be undertaken on a priority basis and completed as soon as possible,
as a SNIE or an SIIM. This Agency, of course, stands ready to support the
NIC in drafting and developing the estimate.
/j4
LEONARD H. PERROOTS
Lieutenant General, USAF
Director
8-2o55x
INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
CLASSIFIED BY DE
DECLASSIFY ON OADR
SECRET
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
L
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/16: CIA-RDP90T00435R000100050008-9