CIA OIL FIGURES RAISE EYEBROWS AMONG EXPERTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91-00561R000100080056-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2012
• Sequence Number: 56
• Publication Date: April 23, 1978
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/28: CIA-RDP91-00561 R000100080056-2
IIRTICLE APP 1 ARE11
ON PAGE_.A
CIA Oil Figures
Raise Eyebrows
Among Experts
By Richard Harwood
WASRINGTO? POST
23 APRIL 1978
is to be expected, "given that the CI A
has been at work for years: on the
question of estimating ... the trends
in foreign capacity and foreign inten?
Lions with regard to production."
"What falls outside of the tradi-
tional compass of the intelligence
.community is that this has gone pub-
lic," Schlesinger, says.
There is another question about the
CIA and energy policy, however., It is
directed at the : agency's capabilities
waehin4:on polo steer writers
This is-a story'about?the Central I' and the quahty..of its work.
' Specifically,; there is. widespread
te_lth-ence Agency.' and the domestic ubt in the, energy community about
energy policies of the American gov: -'the validity.-of the CIA report cited by,
ernment- the president last. April and about the
It begins;. m a public sense,, last*, CIA report c
ited by the Times inDe
April, when:-President Carter revealed eember.?.
:n, ried
in a television appearance that he ? tad The heart--o'pril report was a mu
received :"disturbing" new findings CIA prediction that the Soviet Union : j ent
about world energy supplies - s T
There is less oil and gas available in ,would be .importing; up toy 3.5 million- said, > of oil' per' day by the mid--';. s
the world, Nir
went had than the believed. It er 1980s. Previously, the assumption had r
previously. been that the Soviets would continue'j
therefore imperative that an energy to'~be self-sufficientin meeting their- tit
bill be passed "ta cut down. the waste oil and gas needs. do
LRY uau,
of crier dep
{ The : CIA s revisionist analysis is for international affairs. }
His-fears were. underscored eight under serious challenge by West
months later, on Christmas Day, wheal. 1 ? Frank Pagnotta, another Schle-
The New York Times -reported that .European- agencies, by the , singer aide, who worked for the CIA's
p Library of o? Co Congress, by a number of
Saudi Arabia. with'its oceans of oil ideputy director.
may have far less productive ca acity .major oiI companies, b the Soviets ? Philip Woodside, the interna-
p p and, somewhat surprisingly, by .Schle-
than previously believed., This infor t tional oil specialist for the General
malign, said the Times, 'came from sin,ger. .: _ , - Accounting Office, who- spent more
The same is true of the revisionist than a decade with the CIA as an oil
"leading energy experts."
analysis of the Saudi oil fields, pre- analyst in the Middle East and Latin
It was, in. fact, the CIA which bad pared by the -CIA's Bureau of Eco- America.
raised the alarm about the Saudis, nomic- Research, classified secret and r ? George W. Cave, the C' .1 station
and it was the CIA that had provided never released except in the form of a chief in Saudi Arabia, who isaformer
Carter with- the ammunition for his leak to The New York Times. .
Aramco employe.
!!The response to the Times' version ? Raymond H. Close, the former
Carter acknowledged his debt to the of%he CIA's Saudi report has ranged CIA station chief in Saudi Arabia,
CIA during his television appearance. from ridicule to astonishment. The who retired from the agencylast year
In so doing, he also acknowledged the icritics include the State Department, .1 and now works for the Saudis.
dependence of the White House and 'the General Accounting Office, the .There are, in addition, scores -of
oI Congress on the CIA in the formu- ,Arabian American Oil Co. (Aramco), known or suspected CIA operatives.
lstien of domestic energy policies. the Saudi government and, to a lesser alumni and cooperators wits an abid-
For
good or ill, the CIA is the gov extent Schlesinger. ing interest in oil.
ernment's most important single. ' Two of the best known andmost re-
In summary, the CIA claimed that
source of international energy infor- + spected in international oil circles are
r.~ation, including estimates of ? how ;the Saudi oil fields were. in effect Mike Amen of the London office of
wearing out, partly because of mis,
much is out there and how much is ? the 1Iobil Oil Corp., and JackBridges, j
a; aiiable to the United States. management, and that their ability to a former congressional aide who now
This may seem both unfortunate (produce oil was far less than previ- works for the Saudis as director.: of-0
and sinister to the agency's critics. It 2ously believed. r the King Faisal Foundation with of-. i
is an inevitable and sensible role fors t ! This revisionist conclusion may fices in -Northern Virginia.
the agency in the minds of others, in- -.have been reflected in the unex- They ritually deny -CIA ties, but i
clucling the respected international yplained gyrations that began appear- there is no doubt that they have CIA
crc rgy expert at the Library of Con-, ting in December in the CIA's bi- contacts and intimate relationships-1
`.Tlie CIA," he says, "probably has In November, the agency estimated This web of relationships is nothing `
the best act in town. Nobody else can 'the productive capacity of the Saudi new in the oil business. Foryears, the
do it; the only other source would be fields at 11.5 million barrels a day. In CIA and the international oil compa-
the companies." - tDecember. that estimate was cut. to . nies have worked closely together out
singer Jr. says the CIA's role in making scut to 8.8 million barrels.y Frank Jungers, board chairman of
estimates of foreign oil capacity is con Aramco until last year,-is candid on -
nectionwith-the domestic energy plan that point: `'For years out there.,[ln
Saudi Arabia] we had a good relation-
ship with the agency, partlybecauael;
thought it would make thin ssr easier.~i_
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/28: CIA-RDP91-00561 R000100080056-2