BRIEFING BOOK FOR NEW YORK CITY COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91-00901R000100230036-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 6, 2001
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: March 16, 1979
• Content Type: MF

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MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Herbert E. Hetu
Director of Public Affairs
SUBJECT: Briefing Book for New York City Council on
Foreign Relations
1. Attached is the briefing book for your 21 March appearance
before the New York City Council on Foreign Relations.
2. The speech notes you used for your 10 March appearance
before the Harrisburg Chapter of AFIO and the Harrisburg Foreign
Policy. Association are included. Please let us know if you would. like
them revised in any way.
3. Since the Council will not have a complete count of people
attending until the day before your appearance, neither a list of the
attendees or the main table guests are yet available.
4. The Council will tape your speech and send us a copy. The
questions and answers will not be taped because of the Council's desire
for a completely free exchange.
5. I have not yet scheduled anyone from my office to accompany
you but will be glad to do so if you desire.
Attachment: a/s
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STATIN
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COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, INC.
THE HAROLD PRATT HOUSE (58 EAST 68TH STREET, NEW YORK, N.Y. 10021 1 TEL. [phone] ( CABLE: COUNFOREL, NEW YORK
The Tha.rnas J. Watson Meetings
You are cordially invited to attend
a.Dinner
following a meeting in honor of
THE HONORABLE FRANK C. CARLUCCI
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Wednesday, March 21, 1979
6:45-8:20 pm
CRITICAL PROBLEMS CONFRONTING THE CIA TODAY
Anne Karalekas
Auth9r, History of the CIA
Former Staff Member, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
will preside and comment
Mr. Carlucci was sworn in as Deputy Director of Central Intelligence in
February 1978, after having served in an unusual variety of posts in the
U. S. Government. He was Deputy Director of the Office of Management
and Budget, and Undersecretary of the Department of Health, Education and
Welfare and Ambassador to Portugal.. From 1956 to 1969 he was a career
foreign service officer.
As a courtesy to our guest, members attending this meeting are requested to
remain until the dinner is completed so as not to interrupt the proceedings.
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I:'ednesday
February 14
THE HONORABLE DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN *
U.. S. Senator, New York
Senator Moynihan's 2repared remarks will be on-the-record
Thursday
February 15
Tuesday
February 20
Thursday
February 22
Tuesday
February 27
ANN L. HOLLICK
Specialist in Ocean Policy, the Environment and Natural Resources
Policy Division, Congressional Research Service
AN OCEANS REGIME FOR THE 1980s -? 1980s Project meeting *
RACHEL McCULLOCH
Harvard University
ALTERNATIVE COMMODITY TRADE REGIMES - 1980s Project meeting
HIS EXCELLENCY RAUL ROA, JR.
.Ambassador of Cuba to the United Nations
CUBAN FOREIGN POLICY
THE HONORABLE JAMES R. SCHLESINGER
Secretary, Department of Energy _
Thursday
;larch 1
THE HONORABLE WILLIAM D. ROGERS
Arnold & Porter; Formerly; Undersecretary
of State for Economic Affairs
6:00-7:30 SOME REFLECTIONS ON THE FOREIGN POLICY PROCESS OF THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION
(8th floor conference center)
Edwin M. Yoder,"Jr., Editorial Page Editor, The Washington Star,
will preside and comment
Meeting will. be held in Washington, D.C. at 11 Dupont Circle
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 OF GENERAL MEETINGS ? 58 East 68 Street, NewYork, N.Y. 10021 ? [phone]
FEBRUARY CANCELLATION
BOSTON MEETING
Thursday Meeting with Ambassador Ahmed Esmat Abdel Meguid of
February 15 Egypt is being postponed because of the Ambassador's
forthcoming trip to China. We hope to be able to
6:00-7:15 reschedule our meeting at a later date.
XXXIYXXXXXXXX LXXX O.X C
February Reminders
Tuesday THE HONORABLE RICHARD N. COOPER
February 6 Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
5:15-6:30 AN OVERVIEW OF NORTH-SOUTH RELATIONS
Wednesday GARDNER PATTERSON
February 7 Deputy Director-General, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)
5:15-6:30 THE TOKYO ROUND: APPRAISAL OF THE RESULTS
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WASHINGTON MEETING
Thursday McGEORGE BUNDY
February 8 President, The Ford Foundation
6:00-7:30 `DEFENSE POLICY AND ARMS CONTROL: OBSTACLES TO CONSENSUS
cath_floor conference center)
Tuesday THE HONORABLE JEAN CHRETIEN
February 13 Minister of Finance, Canada
5:15-6:30 THE INVESTMENT CLIMATE IN CANADA
- The Minister's prepared remarks will be on-the--record
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1. We came out of college near end of cold war. Things
lot simpler. Good guys and bad guys.
2. Dramatically different world. Let's compare events
then with events now:
a. Korea was on everybody's mind. But Korea was
backed by China, and China was backed by the USSR.
Simple.
b. Today China fighting with Soviet proxy and Korea
is total enigma.
c. NATO had its problems, but was still monolithic.
No tricky problems like Portuguese or Italian
communist participation to deal with.
d. We had overwhelming strategic advantage. Sputnik
hadn't even come along to shake. our complacency.
Today we are in an age of strategic parity.
e. Third world was just beginning to stir. Congo
was 6 years from independence. Only a handful
of countries were independent. Today third
world is major idealogical battleground.
f. Oil was taken for granted. Energy issues had not
even appeared on our radar screen..
Intelligence was the good old spy game. N
sophisticated technical collection. And nobody
worried too much about civil liberties and controls
on intelligence aparatus.
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3. Now world seems in lousy shape. Wars and coups
all over the place. Yemen, Gloom and doom. Only
consolation is we not at war.
4. Before throw in towel let's look at it for.minute
from other fellow's point of view:
--Soviet leadership is old and doctrinaire. Brezhnev
is 71 and failing. Kirilenko even older. No
emerging young blood.
--Oil production topping out and will decline in 80's in
face rising demand. No cushion of private
consumption. Only way out is to give up exports and foreign exchange needed to import technology and to cut back flow to. EE, risking unrest there.
--Agriculture is inefficient, low birth rate means
problems in labor force and Asian minorities growing
faster than European.
--Popular expectations continue to rise. Met so
far by slow increase in consumer goods. Doubtful
can be maintained in era of little and declining
growth. .
--In Latin America have only Castro to show.
--In Asia see emerging counterbalance in China and
Japan. Even India pursuing more even-handed
course. .
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--In Mideast have made gains in sense that West
has problems. But only Afghanistan and Yemen do
have client states. Libya is embarrassing friend,
and Syria and Iraq while anti-West and also anti-
Soviet. Not clear yet whether Iran will tumble.
--Africa. Have opportunity, but poor track record.
Europe, Euro-communism and ferment in EE. Rumania
openly defiant and Poland is bubbling.
--Europe.
5. No real joy in all of this for us. Closed
society, doctrinaire approach. Can tighten belts at
expense of human misery to continue foreign expansion.
Current leaderhip basically conservative. Nobody knows
views of younger element. Maybe more.adventuristic.. As
far as domestic problems concerned these can be deflected
by triumphs abroad.
6. Fundamental point is that Soviet political
expansion premised on strong military. Soviet defense
effort more than twice ours in percentage of GNP. About
40% larger in dollar terms. Increasing 3-4% while we
dropping.
7. In this kind of complex world information --
intelligence -- becomes important. Surprise is often
deciding element for Soviets. Quality of our decisions
only as good as quality of our information. Yet we have
been caught up in understandable moral debate that has
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weighed the balance on the side of restrictions at a
time when we need flexibility. Not advocating return to
past abuses.
8. We think number of steps needed. All but one
taken.
b. I.O.B.
c. Inspection, dissent, grievance
d. Oversight
e. Charters
9. Taken in conjunction these constitute sensible
approach. But there are forces and laws that tend to weaken
our intelligence capability. Before get into these,
let me describe what we do:
a. Information - Pearl Harbor
b. But world more complex
--USSR - Strategic. Critical margin.
--Issue. MBFR, Non-proliferation. SALT...
--Narcotics, terrorism
--Resources
c. Have heard about failures. Iran - successes
unheralded. Lives saved, drug nets busted,
warning on China V.N., coverage of Nicaragua --
could go on endlessly. Dedicated and competent
people.
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d. Covert Action. Sure policies drew opposition.
Question is whether opposed because it failed
or because it is covert. If it is the
latter, then all clandestine activity
including collection, is equally wrong.
If the former, then the opposition to the
particular action frequently made the defeat
inevitable, as in the case of Angola. Problem
wasn't that had capacity; problem was how used.
The policy not the means employed was at
fault. Have so many constraints that now
contradiction in terms. Watch Soviets
spew false propaganda, create national fronts,
send in Cubans, even Soviets while we debate
whether can influence foreign media for
fear will be played back here.
Examples: Moro. General.
10. But our biggest problem is erosion of ability
protect sources and methods. Intelligence organization
exists fundamentally to gather information that cannot
be gathered openly. If can't protect, unlikely to get.
Doesn't mean undue secrecy. Put out product 150/year.
But does mean you can maintain your commitments to sources
and methods. Should CIA be allowed to lie. Obey our
laws, yes. But in business of getting others to break
law. Put lives in our hands.
Recent history shown can't protect. Several may
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be dead. Liaison services reluctant to cooperate. And
that information may be critical. Amb. life.
11.
Problem has several facets:
a.
Proliferation of access to information.
b.
Congress.
Our own leaks. Kampiles and authors.
Espionage can deal. Authors harder.
Snepp
case.
c.
d.
Agee. No law.
FOIA. Hours. Psychological effect.
Polish.
12.
Protect sources not unique.
a.
b.
c.
Other government departments..
Lawyer, client, etc.
Even journalists. .
Not CIA.
13.
How we doing. Fewer resources. More
constraints. But technically ahead. Analytical better.
But have to work hard just to stay where we are. But it
is worth doing.
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