MONTHLY WARNING MEETINGS FOR FEBRUARY 1984

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP91B00776R000100120003-5
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
5
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
July 10, 2009
Sequence Number: 
3
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
March 13, 1984
Content Type: 
MEMO
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PDF icon CIA-RDP91B00776R000100120003-5.pdf112.57 KB
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Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120003-5 ? T 0 P S E C R E T 40 NIC #01670-84 13 March 1984 MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence Deputy Director of Central Intelligence VIA Chairman, National Intelligence Council FROM David Y. McManis National Intelligence Officer for Warning SUBJECT Monthly Warning Meetings for February 1984 1. Summary of key warning issues: Soviet Leadership If we are to understand activities in the Kremlin, caution is required to glean the truth from the information and disinformation emanating from the USSR about top Soviet leadership. "American Opinion Handlers" managed to mislead us about Mr. Andropov's status. It is clearer now that the naming of Chernenko was the realization of concluded debates and that a power struggle is not ensuing. Iran-Iraq Expect a major Iranian offensive to begin by the end of March, probably centering on the al Basra front. The Iraqi response is almost certain to include air attacks on economic targets--specifically Khark Island and ships near Iranian ports. Baghdad threatened to counter the Iranian offensive with new weapons. Analysts expect a widespread use of mustard agents; there is concern that Iraq's CW program may make nerve agents available by late summer. Use of nerve agents has implications including breach of a Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120003-5 Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120003-5 0 T 0 P S E C R E T ? significant CW threshold, a severe Iranian reaction, Iraqi supply to other Arab States, and rationale for Israeli military actions against the new weapons capability. Nigeria Punishment of former officials charged with corruption may be an indicator to junior military officers of the government's intentions. Rumors of dissatisfaction in the officer corps persist and could lead to another coup, especially if regional unrest continues. Sudan Analysts are concerned about the growing insurgency in the south and President Nimeiri's efforts to deal with it. He has not moved decisively as in previous crises, but forceful action is required to avoid a prolonged insurgency. Chile Prospects for political confrontation in Chile in the next few months is better than 50/50. Protests have been proclaimed for March and April. May and June have been troubled times in the past. A serious crisis could result. Pakistan/Afghanistan/USSR/India Afghan aircraft attacked Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan in late January. There is also a Soviet media campaign to incite Indian animosity toward Pakistan. Most analysts doubt that the Soviets have launched a new phase of their involvement in south Asia, but the situation needs careful observation. T 0 P S E C R E T 2 Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120003-5 Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120003-5 Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120003-5 Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120003-5 ? T 0 P S E C R E T ? 3.. Trend Commentary Yugoslavia Last month's warning report highlighted the economic and political situation in Yugoslavia. There has been some improvement there based on partial agreements in IMF negotiations, but continued close observation is required. USSR We continue focusing on Soviet and Cuban interest in Angola Iran/Iraq Basic strategies continue with Iraq maintaining a defensive position and Iran on the offensive despite heavy losses. Potential crises continue to threaten other countries, but most nations are watching passively. Chile Instability is increasing Nigeria Coup potential continues Sudan The insurgency in the south continues to grow. Weapons Issues of nuclear development in Pakistan and Argentina and chemical weapons use in the Iran/Iraq war, Kampuchea and Afghanistan are T 0 P S E C R E T 4 Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120003-5 Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120003-5 ? T O P S E C R E T ? coming to the fore as major issues with potential long-term impact on international dialogue and war-fighting capabilities. Attachments: Warning Reports (h/w) T 0 P S E C R E T 5 Approved For Release 2009/07/10: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000100120003-5