EAST ASIA NORTH KOREA: MOBILIZATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: July 1, 1987
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1
TOP RE1 25X1
' 25X1
EAST ASIA
NI 0/W
1 July 1987
NORTH KOREA: Mobilization
North Korean ground forces have assumed a heightened state of readiness,
and P'yongyang continues unprecedented steps to significantly augment its war
preparedness, including: the stockpiling of grains, despite an ongoing food
shortage, for wartime consumption; implementation of various Supreme
Commander Orders transferring parts of the country to military logistics
administration; and issuance of a wartime transportation plan. North Korea's
actions appear strongly influenced by its perception of political
developments in the south. NIO/Warning notes that as P'yongyang changes its
war preparedness, its intentions to capitalize on perceived disorder in the
south will be strongly influenced by its perception of continued US
commitment to defend South Korea as evidenced by US political and military
actions.
SOUTH KOREA: Breakpoint
Roh's statement calling for direct elections may reflect a change in the
military's attitude toward Chun. Whether or not Roh's prescription for a
direct election is accepted is uncertain at this time. If it is simply a
ruse by the military to get the people off the streets, the potential a major
upheaval soon will mount. A breakdown in public order would continue to
embolden North Korea into considering precipitious and dangerous military
actions against the south.
PHILIPPINES: Tiger by the Tail
Reinvigorated pro-Marcos opposition efforts to undermine the Aquino
government are likely if Aquino goes ahead with implementation of her land
reform program, and reinvigorated popular opposition if she does not. In any
event, unless Aquino's actions are dramatic and soon, the communist
insurgency is likely to grow rapidly. Terrorist activities in urban areas,
which may include the targetting of American interests, and other evidence of
a bolder insurgency will further increase strains between the military and
Aquino's administration.
TOP SE
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1
25X1
LATIN AMERICA
ARGENTINA: Walking a Tightrope
The deal President Alfonsin struck to quash April's Army
rebellions--exempting many military offices from prosecution--is hurting his
domestic popularity. Civilian antipathy toward still powerful military
interests is growing. As the economy slides, more opportunities appear
likely for overambitious Army officers to create serious trouble for the
Alfonsin presidency.
CHILE: Intransigence
The moderate opposition's campaign for free elections continues to gain
strength. Even senior military officers are increasingly responsive to this
effort, but Pinochet appears as determined as ever to maneuver to remain in
power past 1989. A concerned Pinochet's actions to maintain control may
precipitate a new crisis of confidence over his leadership within the armed
forces and fuel momentum for decisive change before 1989.
HAITI: Storm Warning
Haiti's the faltering economy--the country's greatest threat to
democratic institutions--continues to worsen, and unemployment remains above
50 percent. The badly factionalized ruling council's recent move to take
control of national elections from an independent commission may provoke more
unrest and jeopardize the democratic transition. Incidents of
anti-Americanism probably will grow. Proposed US reductions in Haiti's
export quota of brown sugar to the United States will also increase strains
on the Haitian economy.
JAMAICA: Hard Times Aid Manley
Political tensions continue, and economic woes are deepening. As
national elections approach, Manley's chances of winning the election are
good.
MEXICO: Political Crisis?
Acute economic problems, austerity measures, and corruption will continue
to generate widespread popular and business dissatisfaction and prompt
sporadic civil disturbances, especially in the northern states.
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS: Continuation of Hostilities
Nicaragua continues to maintain a limited presence inside Honduran border
regions, thereby keeping pressure on the Honduran government to restrict
rebel activities. Honduras is likely to seek concessions and further
reassurances of support from the US, as Managua steps up activities aimed at
embarrassing Tegucigalpa. Nb/Warning notes that the potential for
Sandinista forces inside Honduras to fire on US military personnel continues.
TOP SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1 25X1
PANAMA: Upheavel
The 11 June declaration of a state of emergency has ended street
demonstrations, but the widespread opposition to Noriega's rule guarantees a
protracted political crisis and disruptive confrontations. Noriega probably
believes that his position has been badly damaged. He has laid the
groundwork for a demagogic campaign against alleged US interference and a
conspiracy to oust him. Noriega has been identifying attacks on him as an
attack on the military and has charged that US officials were behind a "plot"
by the opposition to remove President Delvalle. A new round in the
Panamanian drama could occur at any time, and subsequent stages are likely to
have more conspicuous anti-American flavor. Chances of raids on or sabotage
against Canal facilities or US business, official, or military personnel will
increase as the crisis evolves.
SURINAME: Quagmire
A year of insurgent military and economic attacks by Brunswijk's
200-person forces has not significantly eroded Bouterse's grip on power. The
recent announcement of a new constitution and dates for a referendum and
general elections are means to perpetuate the military in power.
Nonetheless, governmental collapse remains possible.
WESTERN EUROPE
BERLIN/USSR/GERMANY: New Initiatives?
The Soviets and East Germans appear to be continuing efforts to undermine
Allied unity on arms negotiations and sensitive Berlin issues. Proposals for
easing military confrontation in Europe and reducing the risks of surprise
attack are designed to undercut the credibility of traditional NATO and
pro-US policies and hasten the trend toward independent European
accommodations with Moscow. During this anniversary year of Berlin, further
Soviet probes designed to challenge the status of Berlin are likely.
GREECE/TURKEY/CYPRUS: Troubled Waters
Tensions in the Aegean continue. Implementation of Greek plans to deploy
one or two armored brigades in northern Greece to Thrace would be perceived
by Turkey as a provocative act. New military developments in Cyprus provide
further flashpoints for conflict. A significant increase in the number of
Turkish tanks on Cyprus I
are further irritants that could trigger
confrontation. Alienation of Turkey by European governments' actions is
likely to push Ankara toward more aggressive solutions to the problems in the
Aegean. Each side apparently believes the US can prevent war--an attitude
that may encourage recklessness and lack of restraint, which could trigger
sudden confrontation through miscalculation and escalation.
TOP SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1
25X1
9X1
25X1
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/03/15 : CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1 25X1
iirIrl RIF I I
MALTA: New Violence
Malta's new pro-Western government is facing increasingly violent
challenges from hardliners in the pro-Libyan opposition party which was
ousted from power in mid-May. The potential for more widely spread violence
is great, as the opposition seeks to bring down the new government.
NEAR EAST/SOUTH ASIA
AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN/USSR: Mounting Soviet Pressure
The Soviets are escalating pressure on Pakistan.
there have been 475 bombing and airspace violations this year,
both deeper and more deadly than last year's reported 750 violations.
Consideration by Soviet officials to employ antiradiation missiles against
radar sites apparently in Pakistan--as well as Soviet deployment of
electronic countermeasures aircraft to the border for the first time--may
presage even more aggressive air violations. Meanwhile, the Soviet
subversion campaign to destabilize Pakistan continues.
EGYPT: Prospects for Instability
In the face of economic deterioration and increasing activity by
religious activists, President Mubarak will be hard-pressed to maintain
control during implementation of the newest IMF program. Extensive protests
and labor strife could threaten Mubarak's hold on the presidency. At the
same time, the stability of the Egyptian government and its relations with
the US and Israel depend on Mubarak who is a constant target for
assassination by external and internal foes. Further violence against US
personnel remains likely.
INDIA/CHINA: Border Clashes
Although Gandhi consciously sought to avoid the recent showdowns with
China, both Chinese and Indian military preparedness and hardened diplomatic
positions make clashes at any time possible with little additional warning.
Beijing's unyielding stance--three new forward positions have been
established in the past week-- seems calculated to force New Delhi to
withdraw from last summer's encroachments or withdraw and fight. India's
inclusion, however, of the disputed area into a new state, and domestic focus
on the situation, make it tough for Gandhi to compromise. Should Gandhi not
compromise, larger more serious military confrontations are likely before the
end of this year.
INDIA/PAKISTAN: Continued Uncertainty and Nuclear Weapons
Islamabad already has the
capability to produce a nuclear weapon within a few days to a few weeks.
TOP SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25k
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1
25X'
This appears to have triggered another Indian reassessment of its nuclear
weapons options that will further fuel tensions in the subcontinent.
Nb/Warning notes that we should be prepared for the eventuality of a weapons
test in the subcontinent.
INDIA/SRI LANKA: Future Cyprus?
New Delhi is considering increasing its supply of arms to the Tamil
insurgents, which would prompt extensive fighting in the north, high civilian
casualities, and spur India to consider military intervention. India already
has prepared contingency plans for the invasion of Sri Lanka. In the absence
of international support of the Jayewardene government, an Indian invasion
that could partition the island appears likely.
IRAN/IRAQ/GULF ARAB STATES: Damn the Torpedoes
The war at sea has reached yet a new level of seriousness, as Iran feels
compelled to demonstrate it is not intimidated by US warships and Iraq and
Iran continue aggressive operations in the northern Gulf. Their attacks on
neutral shipping--done deliberately or through errors in target acquisition
and discrimination--could result in another attack on an American or Soviet
combatant on escort duty at any time.
Tehran
may now judge the benefits of attacking or mining a US-fla4?-e-el to
outweigh the risks of retaliation. Iran continues to speed preparations at
Silkworm antiship cruise missile launch sites and may have received an
improved variant.
IRAN/IRAQ: Internal Developments
Political stakes in the war are high. The potential for sudden collapse
of either government is out of proportion to actual or likely military
results. Military and civilian opposition to Husayn continues. In Iran,
differences over conduct of the war reportedly have sparked unprecedented
discontent from a war-weary populace in several cities. Khomeini seems to be
losing control of the power struggle among his successors, and his death
could cause major instability.
KURDS/TURKEY/IRAQ/IRAN: Kurds Weighing In
Continued Iranian support and manipulation of the Kurds, coupled with
increasing Iranian assisted insurgent activity in the Kirkuk oil region, are
drawing Turkey closer to the conflict in the region. Iran recently conducted
a raid inside Turkey to retaliate against two Turkish raids against Kurdish
targets inside Iran. Meanwhile, Baghdad's scorched-earth policy of forcibly
relocating 1700 Kurdish settlements from northern Iraq has caused many
formerly pro-Iraqi Kurds to join the insurgency. Ankara's concern over
Tehran's continued support of the Iraqi Kurds and involvement in terrorism
against Turkey could rapidly worsen Turkish-Iranian relations.
TOP SECRET
w Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776Rnnmnnn9nn-,A_i
25X11
25X1
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1 25X1
25X1
LIBYA: Debacle
As Libyan public appreciation of the extent of Qadhafi's failures in Chad
grows, popular backlash against Libyan defeats seems certain. The political
and psychological repercussions of these debacles may not reach their full
effect for several months, but Qadhafi's chances of retaining power will
lessen in the face of public discontent and continued plotting in the
military officer corps.
SYRIA: Internal Struggle
Assad's poor health could leave him incapacitated at any time. In the
absence of a named successor, new pressures in Lebanon, and an ever-
deteriorating economic situation, the chances of a sudden change of
government grow.
TUNISIA: Increasing Instability
Bourguiba's campaign to suppress all political opposition is escalating
with crackdowns on Islamic fundamentalists. Far from ensuring smooth
succession, however, the regime's efforts are drastically increasing
discontent and ensuring chaos, uncertainty and confusion when the succession
crisis comes. The Libyan threat almost certainly will increase in the
post-Bourguiba period, and Algeria too seems poised to influence the
succession struggle.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
ANGOLA: Prospects for Clash with South Africa Continue
The risk of direct South African-Soviet/Cuban clashes appears to be
growing, as preparations for Luanda's large-scale offensive in southeast
An ola mount. Cuban contingency plans
for retaliatory airstrikes against
increase the chances for confrontation.
25X1
South African airbases in Namibia 25X1
NIGER/LIBYA: Libyan Activities
Niger is unable to control its northern border, and Libya seeks to assert
a questionable territorial claim over the longer term. Ultimately Qadhafi
would like to topple President Kountche, whose medical problems are
worsening. Increased Libyan meddling and subversion--spurred by Qadhafi's
ire at French and US assistance to Chad--can be expected as uncertainty over
the succession takes hold.
-TOP SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1 25X1
TOP SECRET
25X1
SOMALIA/ETHIOPIA: Tense Border
Border tensions continue, and Ethiopia may participate in shallow
cross-border raids into northern Somalia in support of Somali dissidents at
anytime. Mogadishu consequently has looked to the US for reassurance in the
form of more military aid--and may eventually threaten to abrogate the 1980
bilateral access agreement if new military aid is not forthcoming. Siad is
likely to make additional overtures to Moscow in order to offset cuts in US
military aid.
SOUTH AFRICA/FRONTLINE STATES: Confrontation
Conservative electoral gains revealed increased domestic polarization and
further undermined the influence of moderate blacks and whites who seek
compromise. In extending the emergency decree last week to a quasi-permanent
condition and stifling otherwise legitimate dissent, the government's actions
have almost guaranteed continued and increasing violence. Externally
Pretoria's increasingly coercive measures against the Frontline States afford
greater opportunities for both the West and the East to capitalize on the
Frontline States' heightened sense of vulnerability. The Soviets already are
exploiting the situation, especially with Zimbabwe, to make inroads into the
region.
SUDAN/LIBYA/ETHIOPIA: Precarious Tenure
Prime Minister Sadiq faces increasing challenges to his authority as the
economy worsens and military reversals in the South continue. The Sudanese
military reports that Ethiopian troops are directly supporting insurgent
attacks against Sudanese garrisons along the border. These
developments--plus Sadiq's renunciation of Sudan's defense pact with Egypt
and reductions in US aid--reportedly have prompted one local army unit to
mutiny and probably will lead-to new coup plotting against Sadiq and provide
new opportunities for Libyan subversion in Sudan.
SOVIET UNION/EASTERN EUROPE
EASTERN EUROPE: Under Pressure
Dissent is increasing throughout much of Eastern Europe. To various
degrees, the present governments are under new pressures:
0000
Growing economic and political problems, coupled with Gorbachev's
glasnost campaign, have had unsettling effects on the aging East
European leaderships. Prospective succession dilemmas, particularly
in Hunpry and Czechoslovakia, are adding to the potential for
instability.
TOP SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/03/15 : CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1
25X1
M.=
Pressures also are great in Romania, where the continuing debt and
liquidity crises have exacerbated already abject living conditions.
Civil unrest continues, and as conditions worsen, the Soviets will
be in a position to exert even more pressure than before.
In Yugoslavia, dissatisfaction over government wage policies is
high, and unusual union organized strikes in Croatia may portend a
major challenge to federal authority. If Belgrade implements its
plan for stringent austerity measures this year to combat raging
inflation--now over 100 percent a year--a serious political upheaval
could erupt that would threaten the federal Executive Council's
authority and trigger open defiance from public authorities.
USSR: Massive Need for Hard Currency
The Soviets face substantial reductions in hard currency earning from oil
this year at a time of increasing need for imports for modernization. Moscow
increasingly will: rely on Western credit markets; squeeze oil supplied to
Eastern Europe to try to barter it on the international market; sell more
gold; and try to promote new exports--arms, vehicles, metals, and shipping
services--at bargain prices to gain needed hard currency.
TOP SECRET
im Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/15: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300020024-1