BI-WEEKLY WARNING SUPPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 5, 2013
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: September 22, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0
R
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0 25X1
25X1
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, KAMO
National Intelligence Council
NIC 03965-87
22 September 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: John J. Bird
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT: Bi-Weekly Warning Support
1. Attached is my bi-weekly warning review list which is intended to
keep true warning issues in sight during periods when current events do not.
necessarily require continual reporting. The effort is a joint one, taking
into account the views of other NIOs as well as Intelligence Community
perceptions developed during regular warning meetings.
3. I would be pleased to provide you with amplification of any item.
Attachment
Bi-Weekly Warning Review
CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved .for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0 25X1
25X1
WESTERN EUROPE
NIO/W -
22 September 1987
GREECE/TURKEY/CYPRUS: More Tension
A new crisis may be brewing. Greek troop
redeployments, new tensions over Cyprus, and ongoing issues such as rights to
the Aegean seabed, militarization of islands, and differences over air and
sea navigation rights point to heightened tensions. Whether the Greek
actions are for domestic consumption or to affect US/Aegean relations is not
clear. Both countries may move toward confrontation, however, because they
believe the US will act to prevent war.
EAST ASIA
SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA: Rocky Road to December
Agreement by the major parties on a new draft constitution sets the stage
for a presidential election late this year, but hardliners on both sides
continue to oppose the pact. The radicals are likely to instigate street
demonstrations. Additional, perhaps greater, unrest could result from labor
strife. There appears to be general popular belief that a major breakdown in
order could occur well before December. A collapse of public order could yet
result in the imposition of martial law. Disarray might also stimulate the
military to seize control. Disorder would encourage North Korea to attempt
actively to capitalize on anti-government riots and mount some sabotage
operations.
PHILIPPINES: Coup Ramifications
President Aquino is politically weakened--perhaps mortally. Unless one of
her supporters can reunite the military and she can reenergize herself, she
will be unable to reestablish her own political prestige and leadership.
Rebel leader Colonel Honasan remains at large with several hundred troops and
continues to call publicly for reforms. The military is split among
supporters of Honasan, Chief of Staff Ramos, former Defense Minister Enrile,
and even former President Marcos; each group could effectively turn on the
Aquino government. Because much of the military and populace is sympathetic
even to Honasan's grievances and blames Mrs. Aquino, another military
uprising or coup attempt is likely--and may be imminent. Meanwhile, we
expect the communist New People's Army to live up to its 29 August
declaration that "intensification of the revolutionary war and other peoples'
TAD crrorr
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05 : CIA-RDP91600776R000300030024-0
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/06/05 : CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0 25X1
IVF
???????
struggles is the correct response to the worsening strife among
reactionaries. Let us take full advantage of contradictions within the
reactionary ranks."
NEAR EAST/SOUTH ASIA
AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN/USSR: Soviet Pressure,
Soviet diplomatic initiatives, violations of Pakistani ground and
airspace, and possibly financial inducements are maintaining pressure on
President Zia to stop providing aid to the Afghan resistance and to reach an
accommodation with Moscow. Some cross border attacks on Afghans in Pakistan
continue, and harassment attacks against Pakistani civilian targets are
contributing to wearing down Pakistani domestic support of the war. In an
effort that will boost pressure further, Moscow proposed a timetable for
Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan during recent talks in Geneva.
INDIA/CHINA: Risk of Confrontation
Chinese initiatives since mid-July to defuse the border issue--and New
Delhi's conciliatory actions--have helped ease tensions along the Sino-Indian
border; there also have been some troop withdrawals from the border.
However, the Indian Army Chief of Staff seems to be spoiling for a fight.
Should Prime Minister Gandhi not compromise with the Chinese, the level of
tension could increase. A breakdown in the talks proposed by Beijing for
mid-November could result in new confrontations.
INDIA/PAKISTAN: Continued Uncertainty and Nuclear Weapons
Islamabad probably already has the capability to produce
a nuclear device within a few days to a few weeks of a decision to do so.
The Pakistani nuclear program enjoys widespread domestic support, and
external pressures against the nuclear program are not likely to dissuade
Pakistan from maintenance of the nuclear option. This has triggered Indian
reassessment of its nuclear weapons options that will further fuel tensions
in the subcontinent. NIO/Warning notes that we should be prepared for the
eventuality of a weapons test in the subcontinent.
INDIA/SRI LANKA: Indian Invasion?
India has committed most of an infantry division to northern and eastern
Sri Lanka in recent weeks to help enforce the peace agreement concerning the
Tamil insurgency and has put another on alert for deployment. In addition to
introducing a force that could dominate the whole Sri Lankan Army, the
Indians have obtained Colombo's agreement to restructure the Sri Lankan state
and to a virtual Indian veto of national security policy in Sri Lanka,
including access to external military assistance, internal security in the
north and east, and foreign ship visits. It is not yet clear how far Prime
TnP SFCRFT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0 25X1
Minister Gandhi intends to go in establishing dominance over Sri Lanka, but
his overall military commitment continues to grow and he is sending a
commando battalion to Colombo, where there are no organized Tamil insurgent
units.
BANGLADESH: Threat to President
Civilian and military opposition to President Ershad is mounting, but his
opponents agree on little except that he must go, threatening a political
crisis as soon as next month. Ershad's longer term political prospects look
bleak, but he may gain time by shuffling antagonistic senior military
officers to new positions.
IRAN/SAUDI ARABIA/GULF ARAB STATES/US: Collision Course
The likelihood has increased that Tehran will raise the stakes now that
the Saudis have called its bluff and the US Navy has attacked an Iranian Navy
landing craft conducting minelaying operations. Iranian military
preparations and Tehran's specific inclusion of Bahrain and an emirate in its
list of direct enemies of Iran may be a harbinger of further actions against
the US or Saudi Arabia or, in the short run, an attempt to seize new
territory from other Gulf Arabs. Additionally, there would be serious
repercussions in the region should Iran carry out its contingency plans to
occupy Kuwait's Bubiyan Island. The probability of a US combatant being
involved in further hostilities in the region is higher than ever before.
IRAN/IRAQ: Internal Developments
Political stakes in the war are high. The potential for sudden collapse
of either government is out of proportion to actual or likely military
results. Domestic military and civilian opposition to Iraqi President Husayn
continues. Meanwhile, in Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini's death could lead to
major instability within the post-Khomeini government.
IRAN/LIBYA: Naval Threats
Improvements in Iranian mine warfare abilities are posing new threats to
US and Western shipping. Libya recently has provided Iran mines much more
powerful and sophisticated than those that recently have damaged ships in the
Persian Gulf. Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval forces in Lebanon apparently
are increasing and may present a new kind of threat to US and allied maritime
interests in the Mediterranean Sea. The Israeli Navy on 10 September
encountered mines off southern Lebanon similar to those used recently in the
Persian Gulf. In addition, Libya may try to lay mines off Suez. In all
these cases, the mine laying is likely to be covert. It may be difficult to
prove responsibility even though obvious.
TnP cFrPFT
inn Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/06/05 : CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0 25x1
IVF
LIBYA: Chemical Warfare
Qadhafi appears to be embarked on a program to acquire an offensive
chemical warfare capability. Libya probably has received limited quantities
of chemical bombs and artillery shells from Iran and will complete, by late
this year, an indigenous CW agent plant near Rabta. We should be prepared
for Libya's additional use of CW agents in the near future.
KURDS/TURKEY/IRAQ/IRAN: Kurdish Rebellion
Kurdish separatist activity is increasing in southeastern Turkey, drawing
Ankara closer to border conflict. In May, Iran conducted a raid inside
Turkey following two Turkish raids against Kurdish targets in Iran. Turkish
intelligence has identified six Kurdish camps located in Iran and states that
94 Iranian irregulars recently captured while infiltrating intended to attack
Iraq's pipeline through Turkey. Tehran's continued support of the Kurds is
seriously straining Turkish-Iranian relations.
SYRIA: Internal Struggle
President Assad's poor health could leave him incapacitated at any time.
In the absence of a named successor, with new pressures in Lebanon, and with
an ever-deteriorating economic situation, any successor could become
overwhelmed with key issues, leading to governmental instability and sudden
change.
TUNISIA: Increasing Instability
President Bourguiba's campaign to suppress all political opposition is
escalating with harsher crackdowns on Islamic fundamentalists as
demonstrations and bombings become more frequent. The army is tightening
security for the trials of fundamentalists and the government has released
2,500 thugs from prison to form a special police battalion designed to keep
fundamentalists under control. Far from ensuring smooth succession, however,
the regime's efforts are drastically increasing discontent and ensuring
uncertainty and confusion when the succession crisis comes. The Libyan
threat almost certainly will increase in the post-Bourguiba period, and
Algeria too seems poised to influence the succession struggle.
LATIN AMERICA
BRAZIL/ARGENTINA: Tougher Stances on Debt
Brazil and Argentina may soon be taking significantly tougher stands on
repayment of their international debt, threatening more confrontations and,
ultimately, the solvency of major US banks. The recent mid-term election
defeat of Argentine President Alfonsin's party by the Peronists will increase
pressure on him to adopt a harder line on repayments. Brasilia continues to
insist on "alternative" approaches to the debt problem--all of which probably
TnP SFCRFT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0 25X1
25X1
will be costly to the banks. Continuing balance of payments problems in both
countries make early resolutions unlikely. The chances of declarations of
debt moratorium are increasing.
Brazil: Military Plotting
Partly as a result of proposed provisions in the new constitution
reinstating leftist officers expelled after the last coup,
The next few months will be critical as
Congress debates the constitution. Increasing economic problems could lead
to broad based opposition, providing a pretext for military intervention.
CHILE: Intransigence
General Pinochet appears more determined than ever to maneuver to remain
in power beyond 1989. Having prepared plans for carrying out a major
reshuffle of the army to force his critics into early retirement, Pinochet
now seems determined to run as a civilian with junta backing. Pinochet's
actions to maintain control may precipitate a new crisis of confidence over
his leadership within the rank-and-file armed forces and middle class,
fueling momentum for decisive change before 1989.
HAITI: Descent Into Anarchy
The situation continues to deteriorate rapidly. Street violence and acts
of anti-Americanism will continue to endanger the safety of US citizens.
Radical Catholic priests and communists are increasingly involved in
anti-government activities. In addition, former President Duvalier continues
to plot a military coup. Economic problems--plus harsh military
reactions--increase the likelihood of a governmental crisis before the
presidential elections scheduled to be held in November. Even General Namphy
seems to yearn for a return to strongman rule.
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS: Continuation of Hostilities
Nicaragua continues to maintain a limited presence inside Honduran border
regions, thereby keeping pressure on the Honduran government to restrict
rebel activities. Honduras is likely to seek concessions and further
reassurances of support from the US, as Managua steps up activities in border
regions. Nb/Warning notes that the potential for Sandinista forces inside
Honduras to fire on US military personnel continues.
PANAMA: Stalemate
Anti-government protests are tapering off, but the opposition could yet
unify and force Noriega's resignation. General Noriega under siege would
increase his demagogic campaign against the US, crack down roughly on the
TAP SFrPFT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0 25X1
25X1
opposition and, if necessary, install a military junta. The strife has
contributed to the flight of some 10 percent of the banking system's assets,
increasing already considerable strains on the economy and leading foreign
bankers to reassess their positions in Panama; at least two have already
decided to leave. As the crisis evolves, there will be an ever increasing
risk that Noriega will target more sensitive US interests in Panama for
subversion.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
ANGOLA: Prospects for Clash with South Africa
The risk of direct South African-Cuban clashes is high, as the Angolan
government accelerates its measured two-front offensive against UNITA
positions in southeast Angola and as South African forces move toward the
battle front. Should the South Africans attack Cuban strongholds, Cuban
contingency plans--as reported by defector General del Pino--call for
retaliatory airstrikes against South African air bases in Namibia, thus
increasing the chances for escalation.
SOUTH AFRICA: Confrontation
Conservative electoral gains and deep divisions within the Afrikanner
community have revealed increased domestic polarization that has further
undermined the influence of moderate blacks and whites who seek compromise.
Pretoria's gambit to co-opt South African blacks with a new constitution that
allows for urban black participation in government--but which does not
recognize the concept of one man, one vote--will not provide political power
to blacks or satisfy their demands for full political representation. In
extending the emergency decree to a quasi-permanent condition and stifling
legitimate dissent, the government has demonstrated that its authority can be
perpetuated only by force. Externally, until Pretoria's increasingly
coercive measures against Frontline States subside, there will be greater
opportunities for both West and East to capitalize on the Frontline States'
heightened senses of vulnerability.
SOVIET UNION/EASTERN EUROPE
EASTERN EUROPE: Under Pressure
To various degrees, the regimes are under increasing pressures:
Growing economic and political problems, coupled with Gorbachev's
glasnost campaign and Soviet trade demands, have had unsettling
effects on the aging East European leaderships. Prospective
succession dilemmas, particularly in Hungary and Czechoslovakia, are
adding to the potential for instability. In Hungary, strikes and
demonstrations may grow as the impact of recent economic austerity
measures are felt this fall. Even the normally docile legislature
appears restive over austerity proposals.
TOP SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05 : CIA-RDP91600776R000300030024-0
25X1
25X1
OgY1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0
2bAl
Pressures are especially great in Romania, where continuing debt
problems and economic mismanagement have exacerbated already abject
living conditions. Poor nutrition and worsening sanitary conditions
are contributing to new outbreaks this summer of diseases like
cholera. Popular discontent may reach its peak in late winter, when
consumer goods supplies are lowest. Elements in the security
services are disaffected. Should they decide to move against the
ailing Ceausescu, we may have little additional warning. Moscow
would seek to draw Bucharest back to the fold.
USSR: Massive Need for Hard Currency
The Soviets face substantial reductions in hard currency earning from oil
this year at a time of increasing need for imports for modernization. Moscow
increasingly will: rely on Western credit markets; squeeze oil supplied to
Eastern Europe to try to barter it on the international market; sell more
gold; and try to promote new exports--arms, vehicles, metals, and shipping
services--at bargain prices to gain needed hard currency.
Tn0 CrrDCT
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/05: CIA-RDP91B00776R000300030024-0