HIGHLIGHTS OF MONTHLY WARNING REPORTS FOR MARCH 1988

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000400020015-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 13, 2013
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: April 20, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

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ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT:
(Optional)
Highlights of Monthly Warning Reports for March 1988
FROM:
Charles E. Allen
NIO for Warning
7842, Hqs
EXTENSION
NO.
DATE
20 April
1988
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DATE
RECEIVED
FORWARDED
OFFICER'S
INITIALS
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
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FORM 610 USE PREVIOUS
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The Director of Central Intelligence
WasNligtorO/C20505
National Intelligence Council
NIC 01443-88
20 April 1988
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Charles E. Allen
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT: Highlights of Monthly Warning Reports for March 1988
Herewith are summaries of key warning issues compiled by the NIO for
Warning from the monthly Intelligence Community meetings conducted by the NIOs
in March. The judgments expressed are those of the Community unless otherwise
noted. The NIOs' complete reports are attached.
Panama
General Noriega's effort to cling to power increases the likelihood of
violence and prolongs Panama's recovery period.
o Evidence is accululating that that the left wing of the
ruling party is arming and preparing to challenge
anti-Noriega elements.
o The Soviets and their clients are likely to try to make
inroads in Panama at the expense of the United States.
Angola/Cuba/South Africa
A major battle between Cuban and South African forces in
southwestern Angola is increasingly likely.
o Cuban and Angolan units have moved southward toward the
Namibian border. The South Africans have not yet responded
in a significant way.
o The volatile military situation clouds prospects for US
negotiations with the belligerents to end the war.
Israel/Palestinians
The Palestinian uprising is polarizing the Israeli electorate and aiding
extremists the most. None of the country's leaders has the confidence of the
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people and the government is unlikely to make decisions on the peace process.
USSR
The results of Moscow's efforts to control ethnic assertiveness in the
Transcaucasus will have a significant impact on planning now underway for the
Central Committee plenum on nationalities issues to be held, probably, in June.
o Moscow will not grant demands that Nagorno-Karabakh be
linked formally to Armenia, but instead will offer a series
of concessions in the cultural and educational realms.
o The NIO for USSR is not as certain as the Community that
Armenians will accept rejection of their key demand; he
believes that a new round of demonstrations and violence is
possible.
Hungary
The mid-March demonstrations in Budapest--the largest since
the 1956 revolution--set a benchmark for street protests demanding
change.
o The Party leadership is increasingly divided by demands for
freedom of the press, free elections, and democratic
reforms.
o Economic woes could swell the ranks of the disaffected.
Ethiopia/Sudan
Recent rebel gains in northern Ethiopia have disrupted food relief and
Addis Ababa has compounded the problem by banning foreign relief workers from
Eritrea and Tigray.
o A major movement of starving Ethiopians to Sudan is imminent.
South Africa
Government repression of the black population is likely to intensify,
dashing hopes for political reform in the near term.
o More strikes and student boycotts by blacks are likely on
May Day and 16 June, the anniversary of the Soweto
uprising.
hales E. Allen
SECRET
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