HIGHLIGHTS OF MONTHLY WARNING REPORTS FOR MAY 1988

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP91B00776R000400030018-6
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
5
Document Creation Date: 
December 23, 2016
Document Release Date: 
June 24, 2013
Sequence Number: 
18
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
June 28, 1988
Content Type: 
MEMO
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PDF icon CIA-RDP91B00776R000400030018-6.pdf157.47 KB
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/24: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400030018-6 ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET SUBJECT: (Optional) Highlights of Monthly Warning Reports for May 1988 FROM: Fritz W. Ermarth EXTENSION NO. Chairman/NIC DATE 7E 47 Hqs. 28 June 1988 TO: (Officer designation, room number, and DATE building) COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom RECEIVED FORWARDED INITIALS to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.) VC/NIC 2. 3. C/NIC a i 1 4. S' DI Registry 6. 7. ER lob JU L,988 8. 9. DDCI 10. 11. DCI 12. 13. 114. NIO/W 47 7E Hqs. ciIIi:: 1 s. FORM ~1 O USE PREVIOUS 1-79 EDITIONS - Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/24: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400030018-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/24: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400030018-6 J tom! N . UNCLASSIFIED WHEN BLANK CONTROL SHEET FOR TOP SECRET DOCUMENT (COLLATERAL) V (Top Secret Control Automated Data System (TSCADS) Data Entry Copy) CIA TOP SECRET CONTROL NUMBER CIA COPY/SERIES NUMBER DOCUMENT DATE (YYMMDD) 88"_X 1'0/t 4 f / 88O 27 Office Year Copy Series NON-CIA DO ERAL TS ATTACHMENT(s)-Control Numbers LOGGED BY: SUBJECT/TITLE: Highlights of Monthly Warning Reports for May 1988 CIA ORIGINATOR (Director ate, Office, Division, Branch) NON-CIA ORIGINATOR (Dept, Agency) Control No., Copy No. DCI/NI0/W TOP SECRET CONTROL OFFICER TO ENTER INFORMATION INTO TSCADS DESTROY COPY FOLLOWING SYSTEM INFORMATION ENTRY DDCI DCI TOP Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/24: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400030018-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/24: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400030018-6 I "I J_ 25X1 The Director of Central Intelligence Washington, D.C. 20505 National Intelligence Council MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence Deputy Director of Central Intelligence FROM: Charles E. Allen National Intelligence Officer for Warning SUBJECT: Highlights of Monthly Warning Reports for May 1988 Herewith are summaries of key warning issues compiled by the NIO for Warning from the monthly Intelligence Community meetings conducted by the NIOs in May. The judgments expressed are those of the Community unless otherwise noted. The NIOs' complete reports are attached. Panama General Noriega has moved to cement and extend his influence in Panama and probably calculates that he can remain in power even if he does not reach a formal agreement with the United States. o Most of the Community believes he continues to lay the groundwork for remaining a major player in Panama. He has: created a loyal new Strategic Military Council; promoted loyalists to key positions in the Panama Defense Forces; shaken up the Cabinet to improve control of the civilian bureaucracy; and moved to exacerbate divisions among regime opponents. o Over the longer-term, the NIO for Warning believes that Noriega could chip away at US interests in Panama, including rights to the Canal. USSR/Eastern Europe The Soviets have successfully weathered two successions in Eastern Europe and a new round of unrest in Poland, but party leader Gorbachev and the reforms he has undertaken continue to have a profoundly unsettling influence in Eastern Europe. The potential for Soviet missteps remains high. o Soviet objectives in the region remain unchanged. Under Gorbachev, however, Soviet management practices have changed. East European 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/24: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400030018-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/24: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400030018-6 25X1 leaders have more room for maneuver and Moscow is not pressing for slavish imitation of Soviet reforms. o The threshold for Soviet military intervention may be higher under Gorbachev than his three predecessors. The Intelligence Community is divided, however, on the extent to which the "Brezhnev Doctrine"--that no state once communist will be allowed to renounce communism--has been abandoned. Libya/Benin Libyan activity in Benin has increased again and Colonel Qadhafi's agents probably will resume using Benin to carry out subversive and terrorist operations in Africa. President Kerekou has rescinded restrictions on Libyans in Benin.. The head of the Libyan People's Bureau has returned and a Libyan front company has reopened. o Analysts conclude that Tripoli virtually "owns" anyone of importance in the Benin Government. Guatemala The failure of the coup in May against President Cerezo did little to dampen the zeal of anti-regime forces and another coup attempt is likely. o Cerezo has bought some time by taking steps to meet the military's concerns--including shelving plans to meet with insurgents and promising more rifles for the army. He may also pardon coup plotters. However, Cerezo has a history of returning to previous policies. o Analysts are divided over the timing of another coup attempt. Some believe one is likely soon while others think Cerezo's moves'have bought him six to nine months. harles E. Allen