HIGHLIGHTS OF MONTHLY WARNING REPORTS FOR MAY 1988

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00776R000400030018-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 24, 2013
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: June 28, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/24: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400030018-6
ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional)
Highlights of Monthly Warning Reports for May 1988
FROM:
Fritz W. Ermarth
EXTENSION
NO.
Chairman/NIC
DATE
7E 47 Hqs.
28 June 1988
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DATE
building)
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to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
VC/NIC
2.
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a
i 1
4.
S' DI Registry
6.
7.
ER
lob JU
L,988
8.
9. DDCI
10.
11.
DCI
12.
13.
114. NIO/W
47
7E
Hqs.
ciIIi::
1 s.
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SUBJECT/TITLE:
Highlights
of Monthly Warning Reports for May 1988
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/24: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400030018-6
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Charles E. Allen
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT: Highlights of Monthly Warning Reports for May 1988
Herewith are summaries of key warning issues compiled by the NIO for
Warning from the monthly Intelligence Community meetings conducted by the NIOs
in May. The judgments expressed are those of the Community unless otherwise
noted. The NIOs' complete reports are attached.
Panama
General Noriega has moved to cement and extend his influence in Panama and
probably calculates that he can remain in power even if he does not reach a
formal agreement with the United States.
o Most of the Community believes he continues to lay the groundwork for
remaining a major player in Panama. He has: created a loyal new
Strategic Military Council; promoted loyalists to key positions in the
Panama Defense Forces; shaken up the Cabinet to improve control of the
civilian bureaucracy; and moved to exacerbate divisions among regime
opponents.
o Over the longer-term, the NIO for Warning believes that Noriega could
chip away at US interests in Panama, including rights to the Canal.
USSR/Eastern Europe
The Soviets have successfully weathered two successions in Eastern Europe
and a new round of unrest in Poland, but party leader Gorbachev and the
reforms he has undertaken continue to have a profoundly unsettling influence
in Eastern Europe. The potential for Soviet missteps remains high.
o Soviet objectives in the region remain unchanged. Under Gorbachev,
however, Soviet management practices have changed. East European
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/24: CIA-RDP91 B00776R000400030018-6
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leaders have more room for maneuver and Moscow is not pressing for
slavish imitation of Soviet reforms.
o The threshold for Soviet military intervention may be higher under
Gorbachev than his three predecessors. The Intelligence Community is
divided, however, on the extent to which the "Brezhnev Doctrine"--that
no state once communist will be allowed to renounce communism--has been
abandoned.
Libya/Benin
Libyan activity in Benin has increased again and Colonel Qadhafi's agents
probably will resume using Benin to carry out subversive and terrorist
operations in Africa. President Kerekou has rescinded restrictions on Libyans
in Benin.. The head of the Libyan People's Bureau has returned and a Libyan
front company has reopened.
o Analysts conclude that Tripoli virtually "owns" anyone of importance in
the Benin Government.
Guatemala
The failure of the coup in May against President Cerezo did little to
dampen the zeal of anti-regime forces and another coup attempt is likely.
o Cerezo has bought some time by taking steps to meet the military's
concerns--including shelving plans to meet with insurgents and
promising more rifles for the army. He may also pardon coup plotters.
However, Cerezo has a history of returning to previous policies.
o Analysts are divided over the timing of another coup attempt. Some
believe one is likely soon while others think Cerezo's moves'have
bought him six to nine months.
harles E. Allen